calbear93 said:

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The market is priced for perfection and the FED aggressively lowering interest rate. What FED does will depend on employment rate and wage inflation. People talk about soft landing. We may still get it but we have not landed yet. A lot of mixed signals.

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3.3% GDP growth for Q4 is not a "mixed" signal.
PCE at an annual rate of 2% in Q4.
Not a mixed signal.

Yes, the market is pricing in six rate cuts (starting now in May instead of March) vs 3 by the Fed.

dajo9 said:

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GDP grew 3.3% in Q4 vs. a Wall Street "expert" estimate of 2.0%. Fact is, they hate President Biden who is doing a great job. They see everything through dim glasses. First the media swarmed us with headlines that it would be a disappointing Christmas season. That failed to happen. Then they still vastly underestimated the economy through all of Q4. It's Morning in America.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html#:~:text=Gross%20domestic%20product%2C%20a%20measure,three%20months%20of%20the%20year.

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A key point is that PCE remained at 2% (the Fed's target inflation) for the second straight quarter (compared to 5% in Q1 of last year and 3% in Q2).

It's looking more and more likely that the much hoped for soft landing has happened. We will know more about inflation tomorrow when detailed inflation data is released.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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GDP grew 3.3% in Q4 vs. a Wall Street "expert" estimate of 2.0%. Fact is, they hate President Biden who is doing a great job. They see everything through dim glasses. First the media swarmed us with headlines that it would be a disappointing Christmas season. That failed to happen. Then they still vastly underestimated the economy through all of Q4. It's Morning in America.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html#:~:text=Gross%20domestic%20product%2C%20a%20measure,three%20months%20of%20the%20year.

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A key point is that PCE remained at 2% (the Fed's target inflation) for the second straight quarter (compared to 5% in Q1 of last year and 3% in Q2).

It's looking more and more likely that the much hoped for soft landing has happened. We will know more about inflation tomorrow when detailed inflation data is released.

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These numbers definitely reflect good economic conditions. As I mentioned PMI is positive now, indicating more spending on manufacturing and supply chain. Industrial and short cycle markets are seeing strength.

Do the debt levels and lower savings concern you with most of the GDP growth coming from increased debt? I think we will need employee productivity increase and not just debt to maintain GDP growth. Maybe from AI although it seems more talk than actual implementation in broader market.

What is your sense of a bit of caution on growth levels on revenue guidance this earnings season? Just a bit of under-promise and over-deliver with still some uncertainty in macroeconomic? There is definitely a lot of hedge built into initial guides from my sense.

Also, I think this will make it harder for the Fed to lower rates aggressively this year. If the economy is still growing at that rate, I don't think they would be inclined to lower rates to supercharge the growth. If you look at interest expense component of forecast from companies with some leverage, they are not building in a lot decrease in borrowing costs in their forecast, which I think is the right way to think about it with so much uncertainty in interest rate movement.

If I had to identify some risks, I would say mainly geopolitical, with global companies facing some headwind in China with slower growth and nationalistic policies, EU with higher energy costs still impacting economy, pricing power ceiling by corporations and small businesses who collectively employee significant population (although government may face some budget issues as well) seeking more cost savings to maintain margin to the extent volume does not make up for pricing component of revenue growth, and uncertainty and wait and see approach on capital allocation during an election year. From capital finance perspective, I am still seeing volatility on commercial paper and retail loans and more demand for EU denominated financing in the EU market than dollar denominated financing in the US market, putting some pressure on debt financed investments. But consumers still carrying the economy as usual, with only the high debt level and low savings putting pressure on future trends from consumers. But coming back down to historical rate of inflation should help.

For some perspective, household debt as % of GDP grew from ~50% in 2000 to ~85% at the peak of the housing bubble. It then went down to 70% by 2013 and since then has fluctuated between 65% and 70%. The last reading I've seen from Q3 2023 is 66%.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/household-debt--of-nominal-gdp

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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GDP grew 3.3% in Q4 vs. a Wall Street "expert" estimate of 2.0%. Fact is, they hate President Biden who is doing a great job. They see everything through dim glasses. First the media swarmed us with headlines that it would be a disappointing Christmas season. That failed to happen. Then they still vastly underestimated the economy through all of Q4. It's Morning in America.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html#:~:text=Gross%20domestic%20product%2C%20a%20measure,three%20months%20of%20the%20year.

---

A key point is that PCE remained at 2% (the Fed's target inflation) for the second straight quarter (compared to 5% in Q1 of last year and 3% in Q2).

It's looking more and more likely that the much hoped for soft landing has happened. We will know more about inflation tomorrow when detailed inflation data is released.

---

These numbers definitely reflect good economic conditions. As I mentioned PMI is positive now, indicating more spending on manufacturing and supply chain. Industrial and short cycle markets are seeing strength.

Do the debt levels and lower savings concern you with most of the GDP growth coming from increased debt? I think we will need employee productivity increase and not just debt to maintain GDP growth. Maybe from AI although it seems more talk than actual implementation in broader market.

What is your sense of a bit of caution on growth levels on revenue guidance this earnings season? Just a bit of under-promise and over-deliver with still some uncertainty in macroeconomic? There is definitely a lot of hedge built into initial guides from my sense.

Also, I think this will make it harder for the Fed to lower rates aggressively this year. If the economy is still growing at that rate, I don't think they would be inclined to lower rates to supercharge the growth. If you look at interest expense component of forecast from companies with some leverage, they are not building in a lot decrease in borrowing costs in their forecast, which I think is the right way to think about it with so much uncertainty in interest rate movement.

If I had to identify some risks, I would say mainly geopolitical, with global companies facing some headwind in China with slower growth and nationalistic policies, EU with higher energy costs still impacting economy, pricing power ceiling by corporations and small businesses who collectively employee significant population (although government may face some budget issues as well) seeking more cost savings to maintain margin to the extent volume does not make up for pricing component of revenue growth, and uncertainty and wait and see approach on capital allocation during an election year. From capital finance perspective, I am still seeing volatility on commercial paper and retail loans and more demand for EU denominated financing in the EU market than dollar denominated financing in the US market, putting some pressure on debt financed investments. But consumers still carrying the economy as usual, with only the high debt level and low savings putting pressure on future trends from consumers. But coming back down to historical rate of inflation should help.

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My take on guidance is that people get fired for missing their numbers and we are coming out of a period of uncertainty. As we mature into this new growth economy, I expect we see initial overperformance followed by guidance getting better and better as things stabilize.

If you look at guidance to actuals for S&P500, the guidance on average is conservative and is particularly off at inflection points. We saw 2 full years of improving accuracy before 2023. Q4 was a significant exception so I guess we'll see what happens this quarter.

How is it that our resident economic expert does not have sufficient insight into basic knowledge that credit card debt and car loans during high interest rate is a better sign of near term liquidity for discretionary spending as opposed to mortgage balance, especially during real estate asset bubble and low interest rate?

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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GDP grew 3.3% in Q4 vs. a Wall Street "expert" estimate of 2.0%. Fact is, they hate President Biden who is doing a great job. They see everything through dim glasses. First the media swarmed us with headlines that it would be a disappointing Christmas season. That failed to happen. Then they still vastly underestimated the economy through all of Q4. It's Morning in America.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html#:~:text=Gross%20domestic%20product%2C%20a%20measure,three%20months%20of%20the%20year.

---

A key point is that PCE remained at 2% (the Fed's target inflation) for the second straight quarter (compared to 5% in Q1 of last year and 3% in Q2).

It's looking more and more likely that the much hoped for soft landing has happened. We will know more about inflation tomorrow when detailed inflation data is released.

---

These numbers definitely reflect good economic conditions. As I mentioned PMI is positive now, indicating more spending on manufacturing and supply chain. Industrial and short cycle markets are seeing strength.

Do the debt levels and lower savings concern you with most of the GDP growth coming from increased debt? I think we will need employee productivity increase and not just debt to maintain GDP growth. Maybe from AI although it seems more talk than actual implementation in broader market.

What is your sense of a bit of caution on growth levels on revenue guidance this earnings season? Just a bit of under-promise and over-deliver with still some uncertainty in macroeconomic? There is definitely a lot of hedge built into initial guides from my sense.

Also, I think this will make it harder for the Fed to lower rates aggressively this year. If the economy is still growing at that rate, I don't think they would be inclined to lower rates to supercharge the growth. If you look at interest expense component of forecast from companies with some leverage, they are not building in a lot decrease in borrowing costs in their forecast, which I think is the right way to think about it with so much uncertainty in interest rate movement.

If I had to identify some risks, I would say mainly geopolitical, with global companies facing some headwind in China with slower growth and nationalistic policies, EU with higher energy costs still impacting economy, pricing power ceiling by corporations and small businesses who collectively employee significant population (although government may face some budget issues as well) seeking more cost savings to maintain margin to the extent volume does not make up for pricing component of revenue growth, and uncertainty and wait and see approach on capital allocation during an election year. From capital finance perspective, I am still seeing volatility on commercial paper and retail loans and more demand for EU denominated financing in the EU market than dollar denominated financing in the US market, putting some pressure on debt financed investments. But consumers still carrying the economy as usual, with only the high debt level and low savings putting pressure on future trends from consumers. But coming back down to historical rate of inflation should help.

---

My take on guidance is that people get fired for missing their numbers and we are coming out of a period of uncertainty. As we mature into this new growth economy, I expect we see initial overperformance followed by guidance getting better and better as things stabilize.

If you look at guidance to actuals for S&P500, the guidance on average is conservative and is particularly off at inflection points. We saw 2 full years of improving accuracy before 2023. Q4 was a significant exception so I guess we'll see what happens this quarter.

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Historical is never as interesting as the guidance. Agree that, absent clarity on macroeconomic conditions, range will be broader and more conservative, with range narrowed to the upside in subsequent quarters. Just seemed like forecasts were more conservative than initial guidance last year for 2023.

calbear93 said:

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How is it that our resident economic expert does not have sufficient insight into basic knowledge that credit card debt and car loans during high interest rate is a better sign of near term liquidity for discretionary spending as opposed to mortgage balance, especially during real estate asset bubble and low interest rate?

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Here is an article from Fisher Investments talking about how big nominal numbers are good at raising alarm but it is important to scale. You can see from the chart in the article credit card debt / gdp bottomed with Covid but is fairly static in the last decade. Q3 2023 credit card debt / GDP is ~4% so pretty much on trend with last decade and much lower than the decade before. Keep in mind that two decades ago, interest rates were about what they are now. Ah, but I'm a moron because interest rates are higher than last decade.
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/a-trillion-in-credit-card-debt-doesnt-mean-consumers-are-tapped

This can go back and forth because there is always a metric slightly off kilter. Below are household debt payments as percent of disposable income (nothing to see there either). Ah, but I'm a moron because that includes mortgage payments (if mortgage payments are lower can't a household afford more of other debt?). Round and round I'm not going to go.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

Calbear93's recent contributions reminds me of leftists gearing up for the 2004 election. The economy was in recovery so liberals went round and round online assuring each other things were worse than the data appeared if only you dissected it a certain way and considered this, that, and the other thing. If calbear93 has data that he thinks should alarm us then he should calmly present the data. I just expect rage and insults.

The economy is very good right now. It won't last forever.

This is just like the late 1990s when people like Larry Kudlow had to admit that Clinton's policies worked. Then they claimed it was conservativism that did it. Only a matter of time before Larry Kudlow types starts calling President Biden a conservative.
https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/C2iR4C3g7Oo/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

Washington Post hiding the good economic news on page 8.

https://www.threads.net/@thelolgop/post/C2pP-6VL0o1/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

dajo9 said:

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Washington Post hiding the good economic news on page 8.

https://www.threads.net/@thelolgop/post/C2pP-6VL0o1/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

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The US has the strongest economy in the world and why that's bad for Biden.

Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: "I think most Americans know that prices are not likely to fall." pic.twitter.com/QM9fWa56NS

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) January 29, 2024

Bidenflation: Overall prices are up 17.3% during his presidency and gas prices are up 30% from when he took office.

Another month, another blowout Bidenomics jobs report. 353k new jobs in January, almost doubling the estimate. Unemployment extends its record with a 3.7% unemployment rate. Hourly wages up 4.5% vs. last year. The economy is incredibly strong right now. In my adult lifetime this economy is only rivaled by the late 1990s economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-economy-added-353000-jobs-in-january-much-better-than-expected.html

Respect that the GOPers can maintain most of their base even though their talking points are divorced from reality.

Trump says in every speech that when he is president we are going to drill, drill, drill, and the Biden Admin isn’t allowing oil production. Except that the US is producing more oil than at any time in history & more than any other country. https://t.co/oFMO1IQj8F

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 2, 2024

Hopefully Biden's team eventually presents their case on immigration as well (not strictly an economic point, but it's related). Trump and the MAGAts love to talk about the crisis, but the truth is that Trump didn't do anything special other than make the US a less attractive place to be for a few years. During his time in office, apprehensions at the border were much lower and he let in a higher percentage of those apprehended than Biden has.



Facts hurt MAGAts.

dajo9 said:

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Fox News: "this is as good as it gets" while the guy on screen is visibly about to break into MAGA tears.

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WATCH: President Biden trails former President Trump by 22 points on handling of the economy in the latest NBC News national poll, says @SteveKornacki.@kwelkernbc: "The economy is so striking because jobs are up, inflation is down. Voters aren't giving [Biden] credit for that." pic.twitter.com/KzyB7S4rzR

— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) February 4, 2024

Every time I read these posts I think of how much info we may be missing or ignoring. 300K new jobs - great! what are they? Where are they? Are people underemployed? Even if inflation is down now, has pay increased enough across the population to recover from the earlier mess?

— Jay Stephenson (@murmurjjj) February 4, 2024

DiabloWags said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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What really matters to the GOP is how Fox News tells them to feel and right now it's telling them to feel like the economy is bad.

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Exactly.

There are some really dumb people on this thread.
That's why they think that Trump actually cares about them while they work at a car wash.
You just can't fix stupid.

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I am still waiting for Penix to be a top 5 pick, genius. How will that work out? He is currently projected second round.

DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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What really matters to the GOP is how Fox News tells them to feel and right now it's telling them to feel like the economy is bad.

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Exactly.

There are some really dumb people on this thread.
That's why they think that Trump actually cares about them while they work at a car wash.
You just can't fix stupid.

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I am still waiting for Penix to be a top 5 pick, genius. How will that work out? He is currently projected second round.

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Everyone here is still waiting for you to make good on your bet with UNIT-2 and self-ban from Bearinsider.
He won and you lost.

But you WELCHED.

As expected.

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I can't speak for everyone because I am not an EGOTISTICAL MANIAC; however, I am still waiting for you to pick up a DICTIONARY and learn the MEANING of the word WELCH.

Biden Sucks 7 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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cbbass1 said:

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That said....

I give Joe Biden a very hard time for all his foibles.

HOWEVER, I have to give him credit where it's due -- and that is in the area of Anti-Trust enforcement.

California Management Review: Biden's Antitrust Turn: The 2021 Antitrust Executive Order and its implications for Firms and their Executives

Quote:

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US President Joseph Biden issued an executive order (EO) on antitrust policy in July 2021 declaring: "We're now 40 years into the experiment of letting giant corporations accumulate more and more power. I believe the experiment failed."[1]. Over that period, price-cost markups have tripled[2]; the rate of new business formation fell by fifty percent[3]; In three quarters of U.S. industries, concentration is higher than two decades prior[4] and wages have decreased by more than fifteen percent in key sectors of the US economy[5]. The Biden Administration argues these are prima facie evidence of the need for action in antitrust policy. The EO launches seventy-two actions to address these concerns. The EO orders a "whole-of-government competition policy" requiring coordination of federal agencies that influence competition policy. This, the EO claims, is to address "overconcentration, monopolization, and unfair competition in the American economy"[6].

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Biden should be congratulated for every victory on the anti-monopolization front. Instead, his GOP & conservative critics call him a Socialist or a Communist (!!) -- because in a Capitalist economy, he's trying to make markets more competitive. Go figure...

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Yes, I have thought about posting an entire thread around the Biden Administration efforts around anti-trust but I haven't gotten around to it. The strongest anti-trust enforcement we've seen in I don't know how long and very long overdue. Anti-trust and wealth taxes are how you break the oligarchy grip on America. Republicans and Trumpers are totally against it. The media, which is made up of large companies is totally against it. Just another great thing Biden is doing for the American people that goes unnoticed.

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You are not anywhere near corporate development, are you?

Only someone who has no practical experience or has never ever worked on an M&A execution either on the business side or in the legal side would make this kind of statement.

Banks, investors, lawyers, and corporate development leaders who are liberal and conservative are universal in thinking Lina Khan has been a disaster. More losses in the courts in the history of the FTC, proposing to dictate on a national basis without authorization from congress on non-compete clauses, and proposing to turn a simple HSR filing into a pseudo, second review process without the actual man-power to do so, and destroying value by wasting even more money on extra lawyer fees, government workers, etc.

This is what I mean by people here having no clue but acting like they know. A simple discussion with actual practitioners, including those who are liberal, on how bad the FTC has been under this administration from an actual practical perspective would have provided you with some actual insight. Both liberals and conservatives I know who actually know what they are talking about think the FTC has been a disaster under Biden, and they will keep losing in the courts (including under judges appointed by Obama). As bad as Gensler has been, at least he is starting to realize that dictatorship by unelected agency is not going to fly under our constitution.

If Khan and Gensler had gone in wanting to be faithful to their granted authority instead of trying to be what folks claim they are afraid Trump will be - a dictator - they could have made a real difference. They could have, for the SEC, protected investors, and, for the FTC, protected consumer welfare. But what will happen is that, as a result of their overreach, the courts will further narrow the scope of all these agencies (as the SEC has witnessed, with now their gun-shy efforts on climate-related disclosure delayed once again and their share repurchase rules basically killed by the courts) so that both Gensler and Khan would have made both these agencies permanently that much weaker once they are done. Great job.

Counting down to you making some glib, non-substantive name-calling insult that disguises how little you actually know about this stuff.

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A different perspective. I readily admit that I don't know much about the mechanics of anti-trust other than that we've been going in the wrong direction on anti-trust for decades.

Breaking: Google lost a case brought by Epic Games as a jury found the search giant had created an antitrust market with its app store https://t.co/xN0IddPHKg https://t.co/xN0IddPHKg

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 12, 2023

A former big law attorney writes a piece attacking the anti-monopoly movement as a failure the day after Google just lost its first major antitrust case. Does he mention it? Nope! Instead it's just pure gossip from anonymous big tech lawyers. https://t.co/mMo7HsghPE

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) December 14, 2023

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Will House Republicans and Jim Jordan slash the Antitrust Division? That's a question in upcoming budget negotiations. And the answer determines whether we live in a society dominated by giant corporations. https://t.co/rNetB1ic93

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) February 7, 2024

dajo9 said:

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S&P 500 breaking records and crashing through 5,000 for the first time. A rising tide is lifting all boats. Best economy we've had since the 1990's. Joe Biden and the Democrats did this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

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That's because my $7 subway meal now costs $12

Real wages in the middle quintile are above pre-covid and above 2019 trendlines
https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3Fuf8LOqer/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==