https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/06/harris-walz-vp-pick-progressive-democratic-party

Great Depression of 2024 watch

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 on August 5th, the S&P 500 is up about 1.3%. I will continue to provide updates on the Great Depression of 2024 as events warrant.

dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 watch

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 on August 5th, the S&P 500 is up about 1.3%. I will continue to provide updates on the Great Depression of 2024 as events warrant.

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It is a small bounce from a large drop. Please keep us in the loop.

Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

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VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

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VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

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VTI was also 245 in April. Mixed messages on the Great Depression of 2024. I hope Donold knows.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

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VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

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6.5% is nearly 10%?

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What's funny is Donold said something obviously self serving and stupid but sealion003 is still out here trying to defend him (though he'll tell you he doesn't support him).

dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

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VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

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VTI was also 245 in April. Mixed messages on the Great Depression of 2024. I hope Donold knows.

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And it was 115 when covid hit. You can only pump it so long, even with the actually monetary value being inflated because of inflation. A 7% drop of the total market from the recent high is cause for alarm.

oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

---

VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

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VTI was also 245 in April. Mixed messages on the Great Depression of 2024. I hope Donold knows.

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And it was 115 when covid hit. You can only pump it so long, even with the actually monetary value being inflated because of inflation. A 7% drop of the total market from the recent high is cause for alarm.

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That's why I'm providing updates on Donold's Great Depression of 2024

Sweet tribute avatar, AB89. Clint would approve.

I had Donald Sutherland/Oddball before Clint. I'm sure he's good with it, too.

oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

---

VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

---

6.5% is nearly 10%?

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What's funny is Donold said something obviously self serving and stupid but sealion003 is still out here trying to defend him (though he'll tell you he doesn't support him).

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What's funny is Dajo Gold ignoring that the market is still 7% down from its very recent high.

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Just dropped to 8.5% down at 256. This is fairly bloody. Dajo gold, do you have any updates?

oski003 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

---

VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

---

6.5% is nearly 10%?

---

What's funny is Donold said something obviously self serving and stupid but sealion003 is still out here trying to defend him (though he'll tell you he doesn't support him).

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What's funny is Dajo Gold ignoring that the market is still 7% down from its very recent high.

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Just dropped to 8.5% down at 256. This is fairly bloody. Dajo gold, do you have any updates?

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Obviously it's the Great Depression of 2024

AunBear89 said:

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I had Donald Sutherland/Oddball before Clint. I'm sure he's good with it, too.

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Were you Hang'em High Clint before Oddball?

dajo9 said:

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People love to attack me with straw men. Even more fun when they then run away and say things like, I'm not worth it. Really? Because it wasn't me that called you out by name from nowhere. That was you who called me out with a false statement and then ran away because you couldn't defend it.
Here is something I never said:

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Biden is in charge of monetary policy at the FED and that's why the stock market has been so spectacular.

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But most finance professionals I have come across only have a superficial understanding of economics so I can understand why a finance professional might think I said that. They typically think understanding finance means understanding economics. They typically think saying thing like, taxes just take money out of people's pockets, is a profound economic statement rather than just a profit maximizing dogma for themselves.

So let me explain a few things about interest rates. There are a ton of them. The Fed controls the overnight rate banks charge each other (Fed Funds Rate). The finance world is obsessed with the Fed (more so than is deserved even with the very strong effect the Fed has on the finance world). Partly a phenomenon of 24 hour news and partly a phenomenon of needing somebody to blame for the myriad things out of their control in their, admittedly, difficult job. So some finance professionals think the Fed controls all interest rates (influence is not control). Go ahead ask some of them around you. You'll hear a lot of crazy stuff.

When I say something like, Biden has normalized rates, I am talking about the economics based theoretical neutral rate. This is the theoretical rate which supports full employment and is not inflationary. But finance people are Fed obsessed and sometimes think any mention of interest rates is a commentary on rates controlled by the Fed (some finance people have the crazy notion that the Fed controls all rates). In reality the Fed isn't so much setting a Feds Funds Rate (that sounds easy) - they are setting a Fed Funds Rate relative to the theoretical neutral rate that will deliver the desired result they are looking for. In other words, they are adjusting to a target they can't see because it is an economic theory.

So what drives the theoretical neutral rate (R*)? Below is a link from the CFA Institute (I'm pretty sure I have mentioned I used to be a CFA. But I stopped paying dues, so no more).

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R* is widely believed to be determined by real forces that structurally affect the balance between savings and investment in an economy. This includes potential economic growth, demographics, risk aversion, and fiscal policy, among others.

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Fiscal policy? You don't say. Let's say the Fed sets their rate at 2% in 2012 - that is contractionary because the neutral rate is way below 2%. Let's say the Fed sets their rate at 2% in 2022 - that is expansionary because the neutral rate is way above 2%. In both cases the neutral rate was abnormal so the Fed, in order to get the result they desire, had to respond to reality with abnormal rates. That is what I mean when I say the Fed is the tail, not the dog. The neutral rate is the rate that Biden has normalized (if the Fed doesn't mess it up by leaving their rate too high for too long).

Here is a hypothetical. Let's say the economy is fine. GDP is 2%, inflation is 2%, unemployment is 2%, the Fed Funds rate is 2%, and the theoretical neutral rate is 2%. The Feds monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary. The Fed says, don't touch a thing. The President disagrees and convinces Congress that now is the time for across the board 80% tax rates. The economy crashes. The Fed says, I told you not to touch a thing, this is your problem, I'm not changing anything and leaves their rate at 2%. The Fed hasn't done anything but their policy has gone from neutral to contractionary. What changed? Fiscal policy and the economics based theoretical neutral rate of interest.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/07/10/in-search-of-the-elusive-neutral-interest-rate/

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You take some abstract and unproven theory and then even get wrong who is responsible for fiscal policy. Maybe get back to studying the constitution on who controls the purse, including tax.

But you cling on to these theories that resulted in you submitting the wrong predictions over and over again.

Here is the thing. The Fed is the biggest factor in balancing inflation with employment rate. No wonder since that it their actual purpose for existence. They were created by CONGRESS to help create a stable monetary and fiscal system

The difficulty that Fed in the past has had is the lag time between their action and impact. They use their monetary tools to find equilibrium between unemployment and inflation based on recent results, but it is an inexact science on timing on the right action based on past results. Do they lower interest rate now before recession becomes inevitable or is lowering interest rate now too early that may spike up inflation again? Whatever they decide, it won't be clear whether it was the right decision until after the election.

At a certain point, results matter. Whatever tools you are using has led you to completely miss the trend and the subsequent results. You have made the wrong prediction on the economy and the markets almost every single time. And yet you still bring out the same theory that has failed you as if they are some infallible law.

oski003 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

---

VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

---

6.5% is nearly 10%?

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What's funny is Donold said something obviously self serving and stupid but sealion003 is still out here trying to defend him (though he'll tell you he doesn't support him).

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What's funny is Dajo Gold ignoring that the market is still 7% down from its very recent high.

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Just dropped to 8.5% down at 256. This is fairly bloody. Dajo gold, do you have any updates?

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The market is just nervous, including the odd timing of Japan's monetary policies. Always results in overreaction followed by overbuying. Risk in these frothy high growth and high multiple companies will result in overreaction, especially when there are potential early indicators of a future recession. I would deploy more capital when there is even more fear in the street on market leading companies that are resilient during economic slowdown. When everything is down, it is a good time to buy the market leaders that are taken down just like the bad companies.

Thank you Captain Straw Man

oski003 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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Great Depression of 2024 Watch:

Since Donold announced the Great Depression of 2024 the S&P 500 is currently -0.4% down from it's pre-drop amount. I will provide further updates as warranted.

---

VTI was at 279 on July 14. It is at 261 now. That is nearly a 10% drop.

---

6.5% is nearly 10%?

---

What's funny is Donold said something obviously self serving and stupid but sealion003 is still out here trying to defend him (though he'll tell you he doesn't support him).

---

What's funny is Dajo Gold ignoring that the market is still 7% down from its very recent high.

---

Just dropped to 8.5% down at 256. This is fairly bloody. Dajo gold, do you have any updates?

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"I can tell you exactly what it (the stock market) will do for years to come. It will fluctuate." - J. P. Morgan

Inflation continues to come down getting a 2-handle for July with year-over-year inflation at 2.9%. Most of that is from the shagging index, which is lagged and a big portion of it isn't even real - as homeowners aren't actually paying more for the homes they already own.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/14/july-consumer-price-index.html

You are very good at being an insulting sanctimonious *****. Your spot in the Trump campaign awaits. Zero value added to this or any other forum in which you participate.

This site edits pr I ck. But not cock or dick.

Oh well: all three apply equally well.

You introduced *****es to the conversation, so I assumed it was an important topic for you. Your lapdog003 also likes talking about ***** sizes, and I was just trying to make both of you feel seen.

I am happy to change the topic to how much of an arrogant jackass you are, and how your fragile ego immediately turns to insults and disparagement when you feel challenged.

The stock market situation the past 6-7 years or so illustrates one of the differences between Biden and Trump, as politicians:

When the market was at an all-time high under Trump, he was like, "How do you like your 401k's!" When the market was at an even higher all-time high under Biden, he was like, "Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy!"

The Biden economy has been great (save for the inflation which was a byproduct of coming out of the pandemic and not his fault), but he couldn't sell it.


(sorry if i interrupted the "sizes" conversation)