sycasey said:
If the US really wanted to defeat Iran militarily they almost certainly could. It just wouldn't be worth all the destruction, lost life, and expense. Iran knows this and doesn't actually want a direct war. They just want to poke.
It's true that Iran
really doesn't want direct war. But they're not about to lay back & absorb the bombing of their Consulate, the assassination of their physicists on Iranian territory, and let Bibi push them around like he pushes Biden.
Iran's attack wasn't a "poke". It was to establish deterrence.
Israel's counter-counter attack was a "poke." It was Bibi saying, "F--- your deterrence. We'll do what we want, and the U.S. & Western media will back us up 100%. We DARE you to attack us."
On U.S. ability to defeat Iran -- If they resorted to nuclear weapons, then yes. But in a conventional war, Iran is holding all the cards. They've already shown that they can hit any target they want inside Israel, even when they give the U.S. & Israel days to prepare.
On top of that, if it escalates, the next step is for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis, of course, will close the Bab al Mandab Strait. ALL shipping will be shut down. That means $10/gallon gasoline during an election year -- IF you can find it. Food and products disappear from store shelves.
All U.S. warships will be sitting ducks. Iran has way more cheap drones than the warships have interceptors. How will they be re-supplied? What's our inventory & our production capacity?
China & Iran have a mutual defense agreement. What happens to the U.S. when China stops shipping products to the U.S.?
We can't supply enough weapons to Ukraine. Even if Congress passes the $60 Billion, there are no 155mm artillery shells on the shelf. What few we have are now in Israel, for their war with Hezbollah.
IF China decides to move on Taiwan, there's not much that the U.S. can do. We simply don't have the production capacity to support simultaneous wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Northern Israel/Lebanon, Iran, and Taiwan.
For a ground war with Iran, it would take 8 months for the U.S. to move troops & materiel in place.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has 17 days of oil remaining.
Then the questions arise:
- How are you going to pay for that?
- Who are you going to get to fight this war?
At this point, the world will be U.S. & Israel vs the BRICS. Europe, Japan, S. Korea, & Australia will realize that the U.S. has no ability to defend them, and that their best move is to remain neutral
The USD is not likely to survive as the world's reserve currency. Foreign investors in U.S. equities & real estate will likely try to cash out, so they don't suffer the same fate as the Russian oligarchs & have their $$ stolen. The U.S. will default on its Treasuries.
With the corporate/Western media demonization shifting to Iran, my concern is that the U.S. NeoCons are the most likely to use nuclear weapons in a first strike, and use their media dominance to blame
everything on Iran. Their reliable pattern is to
always double down.
