Cal88 said:

---

Toyota's market cap is about $250 billion. Accounting for the fact that US markets are a lot more heavily financialized, a $350-$450 billion valuation for Tesla seems reasonable, so at the current valuation of $740 billion, there is a lot more room for further decline.

---

Much of their revenue comes from selling carbon credits.
So, it might be interesting to subtract that out in order to get more of a "realistic" valuation.
$739 million in Q3 of last year and $692 million in Q4.

Won't Trump scrap EV tax credits despite Elon?

Cal88 said:

---

Toyota's market cap is about $250 billion. Accounting for the fact that US markets are a lot more heavily financialized, a $350-$450 billion valuation for Tesla seems reasonable, so at the current valuation of $740 billion, there is a lot more room for further decline.

---

I suspect Tesla valuation has little to do with cars as we've known them.

concordtom said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Toyota's market cap is about $250 billion. Accounting for the fact that US markets are a lot more heavily financialized, a $350-$450 billion valuation for Tesla seems reasonable, so at the current valuation of $740 billion, there is a lot more room for further decline.

---

I suspect Tesla valuation has little to do with cars as we've known them.

---

Tom has it right IMO. The absurdly high valuation is based on future tech, not their lagging EV business and credit transfers. Even now Tesla's lower stock valuation, Tesla's stock price defies logical price earnings ratio.

concordtom said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

EVs are still expensive to produce and generate lower (or negative) margins

---

Why would that be? Because of the price of the battery, I presume. I'm going to find a chart on the declining price of batteries, and i challenge you to research trends in storage technology, r&d.

Storage of energy is THE #1 issue, is it not, because we now understand that wind and solar generation are cheaper than digging, refining, transporting hydrocarbons. This is not yesterday's lead acid.

I personally am intrigued by pumped hydro, though that admittedly does nothing for cars.

https://www.batterytechonline.com/battery-manufacturing/the-90-drop-how-ev-battery-costs-plummeted-over-15-years

And I should ask, will lithium even be the EV battery technology of the future? We can't say.

My stepmother worked for Apple years before the Macintosh. We had early models in our home. Boy were those products crappy and expensive. I think the model T was crappy, too. When I went to college, i bought an external hard drive - as big as one of those old brick cell phones, 20 megabytes for $500.

Ask yourself, wife, where storage will be in the post ICE automotive era.

I dunno…. You're complaining about margins just like a US manufacturing worker complains about wages not keeping up with inflation - but I'm saying that's what happens in a competitive landscape. For US workers, they must compete with billions of workers abroad who will accept less, so not duh. Because containerized cargo shipping has happened. And for the domestic automakers, same concept. But you're not complaining about auto margins per se, you're complaining about ev margins. And again, to that I say, just wait, because the Macintosh is coming and it's going to be WAY better than the Apple IIe.



There's a battery technology that is going to similarly blow us all away. Or at least be way cheaper. We are just getting started with EVs. ….okay, now I'm going to read the rest of your post.



Look, you're far smarter than me. I don't understand why you are complaining of margins. If we sat with a beer or a sandwich, I'm sure we'd get along just fine! Thumbs up.

---

I suspect due to technical issues, EVs will be competing against other technologies, and may lose that battle. The assumption that somehow EVs cure all their technical issues and achieve mass productions economies that advocates keep touting, has not happened yet, and may simply never happen.

wifeisafurd said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Look, you're far smarter than me. I don't understand why you are complaining of margins. If we sat with a beer or a sandwich, I'm sure we'd get along just fine! Thumbs up.

---

I suspect due to technical issues, EVs will be competing against other technologies, and may lose that battle. The assumption that somehow EVs cure all their technical issues and achieve mass productions economies that advocates keep touting, has not happened yet, and may simply never happen.

---

Okay, now we are pivoting nicely.
What "other technologies" are you referring to? I'm stumped.

wifeisafurd said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Toyota's market cap is about $250 billion. Accounting for the fact that US markets are a lot more heavily financialized, a $350-$450 billion valuation for Tesla seems reasonable, so at the current valuation of $740 billion, there is a lot more room for further decline.

---

I suspect Tesla valuation has little to do with cars as we've known them.

---

Tom has it right IMO. The absurdly high valuation is based on future tech, not their lagging EV business and credit transfers. Even now Tesla's lower stock valuation, Tesla's stock price defies logical price earnings ratio.

---

Thank you, Sir.

Yes. All that has happened is that TSLA has yielded back its election gains. It's still got that lofty TSLA PE valuation multiple.

Let's talk EV costs. Every year, advocates say there will be parity between ICE and EV costs, because ICE has complicated engines and EVs just have batteries. And every year, those estimates like people such as Yahoo Finance are wrong and the year parity will be achieved keeps being pushed off.

Part to this is the way production costs are calculated, because if my government subsides me, than I have less costs. Even though most EV companies still have crappy margins, and most auto research media companies are predicting they also expect that about 15% to 25% of EV companies founded since the last decade will be acquired or bankrupt in the next few years. Why the disconnect?

Simplifying production, such as centralized vehicle architecture or the introduction of gigacastings or robots (this is where Tesla leads the market) are helping reduce manufacturing cost and assembly time, though adding debt since these technologies are costly and require massive capital investment. So when you see costs are down, does that include interest or other capital costs (the answer is no)? The numbers are garbage Moreover, at the same time, the cost of repairing EVs is now considerably costlier due to the tech. Market research firm are now expecting the average cost of repairing an EV body and battery after a serious accident to rise 30% by 2027.Tthere could be a consumer backlash if reductions in production costs come at the expense of higher repair costs.

Then there is the battery costs, and many people in the investment business like JP Morgan think the numbers are rubbish. Every years there are a ton of articles that come out sayin this is the year we project a a something like 50% decrease in battery costs. And I keep reading prices will be going way down, even when accounting for government subsidies or artificially reducing materials costs. But projections are just that. Can you find me the actual unsubsidized cost of a Tesla battery, a Bolt battery? The US is in its own bubble on costs. Do you reduce the cost of a Chinese battery even though we now have a 25% or 50% tariffs, depending on the day, on those imported batteries? Supposedly some component costs are supposed to be far less outside the US, but you better riot import them or you lose credits or face tariffs, so anything that says battery costs have gone down in the US, the investment community laughs at. But let's move outside the US. Battery costs not going down much there. The one exception is that the Chinese have dropped their battery price (not German or Japanese cars), which of course brings-up the issue of the Chinese government. Does that mean auto manufacturers will pass those savings on to the customer or are they using that to boost their pathetic margins? I see the chart Tom, but honestly I don't think many people believe it any more. If the costs are going so far down, where are the profits? Why is the cost of a replacement battery not going massively down outside Chines auto makers?

This gets back to the original issue, which is EV comprises don't have good margins and have been bad investments. Need I remind you the EVs still are less than 10% of the market (8.1 % of world sales (and 6.8% of US sales) in 2024?

Look I'm a booster of EVs. I own and love them, but propensity of advocates to overstate things and make ridiculous projections and assumptions is undermining credibility in EVs. Production costs gains are not valid if you don't acknowledge the cost of the implementing those gains. I think the way to look at batteries is the free increase in range that is occurring for the consumer, not that battery cost is going down. Why then are replacement battery prices not really dropping so much? Think about it.

There has been much concern lately about the state of the transition to ECs. The US and the EU have both backed off on their next round of exhaust emissions standards in the face of pressure from automakers and fossil fuel industry groups. GM and Ford are pushing back the timeline for introducing new battery-electric vehicles, particularly pickup trucks. Mercedes has just announced it is backing away from its pledge to build only EVs, saying it can't make enough money just from selling electric cars. It now says infernal combustion engines will be part of its business plan until well into the next several decades.

The headlines suggest that consumers are losing interest in electric cars, and there are a number of reasons for that. We were told ten years ago that EV prices would fall along with decreases in the cost of batteries, but that hasn't happened much unless you look at certain Teslas. The price of electric cars has remained stubbornly high outside China. In fact, in many cases, the price of new electric cars and trucks has gone up rather than down, thought that means veering towards higher margin luxury EVs.

The takeaway here seems to be that lower EV prices from China (CATL and BYD) will greatly benefit EV customers in China and other Asian countries first, Europe second if the EU stops erecting trade barriers to Chinese made cars, and the US last, due to its protectionist stance. Not all Chinese-made cars are up to the standards of quality and reliability EC and North American consumers demand. Nobody will buy crappy cars no matter what the price, so they need to step up their game and make reliable ECs, not just cheap ones. Again, EVs currently make-up only around 8% of the world sales.

"Tesla is recalling substantially all units of the Cybertruck pickup over a defect that could cause a panel to fly off in traffic.

Why it matters: The Cybertruck which has been dogged by quality issues, causing several previous recalls has been trumpeted by Tesla CEO Elon Musk as a reflection of the company's engineering prowess.

Driving the news: Tesla is recalling 46,096 units of the Cybertruck over a stainless steel exterior trim panel that "can delaminate and detach from the vehicle," according to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration document.

The recall covers Cybertrucks assembled from November 13, 2023, to February 27, 2025.

Tesla has identified 151 warranty claims "that may be related to the condition" but "is not aware of any collisions, fatalities, or injuries" tied to the defect, according to a safety recall report.

Context: It's the latest in a series of recalls for the Cybertruck.

Past issues have included a faulty accelerator pedal, a rearview camera problem and a windshield wiper problem.

What's next: Owners will be notified in May of the latest recall and will get their vehicles fixed for free."
Axios

bearister said:

---

"Tesla is recalling substantially all units of the Cybertruck pickup over a defect that could cause a panel to fly off in traffic.

Why it matters: The Cybertruck which has been dogged by quality issues, causing several previous recalls has been trumpeted by Tesla CEO Elon Musk as a reflection of the company's engineering prowess.

Driving the news: Tesla is recalling 46,096 units of the Cybertruck over a stainless steel exterior trim panel that "can delaminate and detach from the vehicle," according to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration document.

The recall covers Cybertrucks assembled from November 13, 2023, to February 27, 2025.

Tesla has identified 151 warranty claims "that may be related to the condition" but "is not aware of any collisions, fatalities, or injuries" tied to the defect, according to a safety recall report.

Context: It's the latest in a series of recalls for the Cybertruck.

Past issues have included a faulty accelerator pedal, a rearview camera problem and a windshield wiper problem.

What's next: Owners will be notified in May of the latest recall and will get their vehicles fixed for free."
Axios

---

Booth. I am glad that there is so little actual bad news that this has to be reposted 4 times.

Or…….

This popped up in my feed so to be fair we'll give it a shot here.

From NYT

"Elon Musk has said that "Canada is not a real country," just one of his social media jabs at the U.S. neighbor.

But people in Canada have done real damage to the vehicles and dealerships belonging to his electric car company, Tesla, according to the police.

More than 80 Teslas had their tires punctured and bodies scratched at a lot in Hamilton, Ontario, the police said on Thursday.

Fake country vandalizes fake car

And the worse part is, is that CANADA is BOYCOTTING a lot of American goods.

Boycott's are disproportionately more damaging than a tariff.

Just ask the CEO of Brown-Forman, makers of Jack Daniel's Whiskey who has seen Canadian liquor stores take JD off of their shelves.

But I'm sure that the typical Kool-Aid drinkers that support a "stable" genius haven't figured this out yet.

Trump = MORON



Canada boycotting US liquor 'worse than tariff,' says Jack Daniel's CEO

Tesla has also been banned from participating in a car show in Canada because of public safety reasons.

You reap what you sow

Yes, I read about that this morning.
Sad really.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-removed-vancouver-international-auto-show-safety-concerns-2025-03-20/

Canada population is roughly = California?
Imagine if CA boycotted the other 49 states… that would make an impact!
12.3%


I have 2 gg grandmothers born in Canada. And other ancestors before that on various lines. You think they'd let me in?

Anarchistbear said:

---

From NYT

"Elon Musk has said that "Canada is not a real country," just one of his social media jabs at the U.S. neighbor.

---

That's incredibly stupid!
No politician in their right mind (Trump doesn't count because he is not in his right mind) would say that. What an idiot!

Disbelieving it, I had to look it up. And found this Politico article. It's a good quick read. Things I never knew.


Canadians to Elon Musk: You're not one of us

"People are really angry," Ottawa lawmaker says of petition to revoke the citizenship of Trump's unofficial right-hand man.

"Musk has engaged in activities that go against the national interest of Canada," states an e-petition urging Ottawa to revoke Elon Musk's citizenship status. -Alex Brandon/AP

By MICKEY DJURIC
02/25/2025 12:05 PM EST

OTTAWA More than 242,000 Canadians have signed a petition calling for Elon Musk's passport and citizenship to be revoked over his ties to President Donald Trump, who has taken repeated shots at Canada's sovereignty.

Musk, who was born in South Africa but holds a Canadian passport, has taken a leading role in the Trump administration to make sweeping cuts to federal agencies and weigh in on policies across the government.

The electronic petition charges that "Musk has engaged in activities that go against the national interest of Canada" by becoming a member of a foreign government "that is attempting to erase Canadian sovereignty."
Responding to the petition on X, Musk said: "Canada is not a real country."

Musk left South Africa when he was 17 and arrived in Canada in 1989 with about C$2,000, a backpack and a suitcase of books.

He ended up working on a farm in rural Saskatchewan that belonged to a cousin of his mother, Maye Musk. His mother was born in that province before she moved to South Africa, which is why Musk was able to obtain a Canadian passport. He also has U.S. citizenship.
Musk chose the prairie province because his mother's cousin was the closest person who had answered his letters, Musk told a local newspaper. He later went on to work at a lumber mill in Vancouver, before attending Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, for two years. He also spent some time living in Toronto.

Trump has taken repeated shots at Canada's sovereignty. Last month the president said he would use "economic force" to absorb Canada as the 51st state comments the White House has said should be taken seriously.

Canadians have responded by canceling trips to the U.S., boycotting American products and booing the national anthem at NBA and NHL games. The geopolitical tension was on full display during Thursday's Canada-U.S. hockey final.

The petition, which opened to signatures five days ago, is unofficial and mostly symbolic. In Canada, citizenship can be revoked only if someone has committed fraud, misrepresented themselves or knowingly hid information on an immigration or citizenship application.
The petition was initiated by a British Columbia resident but sponsored by NDP MP Charlie Angus, a progressive lawmaker known as Canada's "punk-rock" politician because of his outspoken activism. He is prepared to introduce the petition in the House of Commons when it returns at the end of next month.

"I've never seen anything move like this in the boring world of parliamentary e-petitions," Angus said to POLITICO.

"What this tells me is that people are really angry, and people are coming together to defend their democracy … and saying this man should have no claim on calling himself Canadian in any capacity for his profoundly anti-democratic views."

Angus has previously spoken out against Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Vice President JD Vance's fiery speech attacking Europe at the Munich Security Conference and Musk's interest in Germany's election while publicly backing a far-right party.

For months, Angus has been trying to persuade Canada's election oversight body to launch an investigation into Musk and his social media platform X over concerns about potential interference by the tech billionaire.

"We don't have a game plan for dealing with the United States as an aggressive foreign threat to democracy, but we need to have one now," Angus said.

"We are right next to his regime. Our country is the most vulnerable of them all."

I was recently in Indio at my friends luxury RV resort. The two people on both sides of him are Canadians.

They said US products are being moved to the bottom shelf.
They also said they were selling their slip and not returning because the exchange rate is poor for them making the HOA dues too high.

Hmmm
I think some of the assertions you made are questionable, or didn't sound right.

Just picking on one aspect of pricing you say is unchanged, Let's look at a chart for raw material Lithium.
1.. the price spiked a few years ago but has come back down.
2. Future price declines? New reserves are being identified and set up. We've written on OT about Thacker Pass before. ChatGPT:

Quote:

---

Lithium development in northern Nevada is progressing rapidly, with major projects such as Thacker Pass in Humboldt County leading the way. Lithium Americas has significantly increased its estimated lithium reserves at Thacker Pass, now claiming it to be the world's largest measured lithium reserve and resource. The updated estimates show a proven and probable reserve of 14.3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), marking a 286% increase since 2022. The total measured and indicated resource has also grown by 177% to 44.5 million tonnes of LCE.

The project, a joint venture between Lithium Americas (62%) and General Motors Holdings (38%), is planned in multiple phases. Phase one, which started construction in early 2023, is expected to be completed by late 2027, with Bechtel overseeing engineering and construction. The full project could span 85 years and cost over $12 billion across five phases [oai_citation:1,Lithium Americas reports higher reserves at Thacker Pass project in Nevada](https://www.mining-technology.com/news/lithium-americas-higher-reserves-thacker-pass-project/).

---

concordtom said:

---

I was recently in Indio at my friends luxury RV resort. The two people on both sides of him are Canadians.

They said US products are being moved to the bottom shelf.
They also said they were selling their slip and not returning because the exchange rate is poor for them making the HOA dues too high.

---

Those two ingrates are lucky we don't send their hockey-loving asses to Guantanamo.

concordtom said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Look, you're far smarter than me. I don't understand why you are complaining of margins. If we sat with a beer or a sandwich, I'm sure we'd get along just fine! Thumbs up.

---

I suspect due to technical issues, EVs will be competing against other technologies, and may lose that battle. The assumption that somehow EVs cure all their technical issues and achieve mass productions economies that advocates keep touting, has not happened yet, and may simply never happen.

---

Okay, now we are pivoting nicely.
What "other technologies" are you referring to? I'm stumped.

---

You could ask your computer since you are starting to now quite your AI in other posts. . Apple AI: Here's a more detailed look at some key technologies expected to shape the future of cars:


1. Autonomous Driving:

• Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS):
  These systems, already available in many cars, will become more sophisticated, offering features like adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assist, and automatic emergency braking.
  
  
• Self-Driving Capabilities:
  Cars will gradually move towards full autonomy (Level 5), where they can navigate and drive without human intervention.
  
  
• Robotaxis:
  Autonomous vehicles could become a common form of transportation, offering on-demand ride-sharing services.
  
  

2. Electric Powertrains:

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):
  EVs are expected to become increasingly popular, with advancements in battery technology leading to longer ranges and faster charging times.
  
  
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs):
  Hydrogen fuel cell technology could emerge as a viable alternative, offering a longer range and faster refueling times compared to EVs.
  
  
• Hybrid Vehicles:
  Hybrid technology, combining electric and gasoline engines, will continue to evolve, offering a balance of efficiency and range.
  
  
• Solid-State Batteries:
  These batteries promise higher energy density, faster charging, and increased safety compared to current lithium-ion batteries.
  
  

3. Connectivity and Software-Defined Vehicles:

• Over-the-Air (OTA) Updates:
  Cars will be able to receive software updates wirelessly, allowing for continuous improvements and new features.
  
  
• Connected Car Features:
  Cars will be able to connect to the internet, other vehicles, and external services, enabling features like real-time traffic updates, remote diagnostics, and personalized infotainment systems.
  
  
• 5G Connectivity:
  5G technology will enable faster and more reliable data transmission, supporting features like autonomous driving and connected services.
  
  

4. AI and Machine Learning:

• Predictive Maintenance:
  AI algorithms can analyze vehicle data to predict potential maintenance needs, allowing for proactive repairs and reduced downtime.
  
  
• Personalized Driving Experience:
  AI can learn driver preferences and adjust vehicle settings accordingly, creating a more comfortable and enjoyable experience.
  
  
• Enhanced Safety Systems:
  AI can be used to improve the performance of safety systems, such as pedestrian detection and lane departure warnings.
  
  
• In-Cabin Sensing:
  Using cameras, radar, and other sensors, cars can monitor the driver's attention and detect signs of fatigue or impairment, triggering safety interventions.
  
  

5. Other Emerging Technologies:

• Augmented Reality (AR):
  AR technology can overlay digital information onto the real world, providing drivers with real-time navigation, hazard warnings, and other useful information.
  
  
• Holographic Displays:
  Holographic displays can create immersive and interactive experiences for passengers.
  
  
• 3D Printing:
  3D printing can be used to create custom vehicle parts and accessories, allowing for greater flexibility and personalization.
  
  
• Biometric Authentication:
  Biometric systems, such as fingerprint or facial recognition, can be used to unlock vehicles and personalize settings.
  
  
• Composite Materials:
  Lightweight and strong composite materials, like carbon fiber, can be used to reduce vehicle weight and improve fuel efficiency.
  
  
• Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technology:
  EVs can be used to store and distribute energy back to the grid, contributing to a more sustainable energy system.
  
  

This is a rather incomplete list, but as should. be obvious, EV technology is just one of many.





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concordtom said:

---

Hmmm
I think some of the assertions you made are questionable, or didn't sound right.

Just picking on one aspect of pricing you say is unchanged, Let's look at a chart for raw material Lithium.
1.. the price spiked a few years ago but has come back down.
2. Future price declines? New reserves are being identified and set up. We've written on OT about Thacker Pass before. ChatGPT:

Quote:

---

Lithium development in northern Nevada is progressing rapidly, with major projects such as Thacker Pass in Humboldt County leading the way. Lithium Americas has significantly increased its estimated lithium reserves at Thacker Pass, now claiming it to be the world's largest measured lithium reserve and resource. The updated estimates show a proven and probable reserve of 14.3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), marking a 286% increase since 2022. The total measured and indicated resource has also grown by 177% to 44.5 million tonnes of LCE.

The project, a joint venture between Lithium Americas (62%) and General Motors Holdings (38%), is planned in multiple phases. Phase one, which started construction in early 2023, is expected to be completed by late 2027, with Bechtel overseeing engineering and construction. The full project could span 85 years and cost over $12 billion across five phases [oai_citation:1,Lithium Americas reports higher reserves at Thacker Pass project in Nevada](https://www.mining-technology.com/news/lithium-americas-higher-reserves-thacker-pass-project/).

---

---

Wait, your response to the reduction in material costs is to discuss Thacker Pass? Talk about a non-sequitur.

Here is my computer's AI:

...the prices of key materials for EV batteries, like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, have been experiencing a significant drop, leading to lower battery pack costs...

• Factors Contributing to the Price Drop:
  
  • Oversupply: A surge in new production, particularly from China, has led to an oversupply of lithium, impacting prices (emphasis added). .
    
    
  • Revised Demand: A slowdown in electric vehicle adoption has also contributed to the oversupply.
    
    
  • Innovation: According to C&EN, battery makers are exploring alternative materials like manganese and sodium to reduce costs.
    
    
My AI says your AI didn't understand my point. about price reductions outside the US or all the diffenret materials go into batteries.

wifeisafurd said:

---

concordtom said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Look, you're far smarter than me. I don't understand why you are complaining of margins. If we sat with a beer or a sandwich, I'm sure we'd get along just fine! Thumbs up.

---

I suspect due to technical issues, EVs will be competing against other technologies, and may lose that battle. The assumption that somehow EVs cure all their technical issues and achieve mass productions economies that advocates keep touting, has not happened yet, and may simply never happen.

---

Okay, now we are pivoting nicely.
What "other technologies" are you referring to? I'm stumped.

---

You could ask your computer since you are starting to now quite your AI in other posts. . Apple AI: Here's a more detailed look at some key technologies expected to shape the future of cars:


1. Autonomous Driving:

• Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS):
  These systems, already available in many cars, will become more sophisticated, offering features like adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assist, and automatic emergency braking.
  
  
• Self-Driving Capabilities:
  Cars will gradually move towards full autonomy (Level 5), where they can navigate and drive without human intervention.
  
  
• Robotaxis:
  Autonomous vehicles could become a common form of transportation, offering on-demand ride-sharing services.
  
  

2. Electric Powertrains:

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):
  EVs are expected to become increasingly popular, with advancements in battery technology leading to longer ranges and faster charging times.
  
  
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs):
  Hydrogen fuel cell technology could emerge as a viable alternative, offering a longer range and faster refueling times compared to EVs.
  
  
• Hybrid Vehicles:
  Hybrid technology, combining electric and gasoline engines, will continue to evolve, offering a balance of efficiency and range.
  
  
• Solid-State Batteries:
  These batteries promise higher energy density, faster charging, and increased safety compared to current lithium-ion batteries.
  
  

3. Connectivity and Software-Defined Vehicles:

• Over-the-Air (OTA) Updates:
  Cars will be able to receive software updates wirelessly, allowing for continuous improvements and new features.
  
  
• Connected Car Features:
  Cars will be able to connect to the internet, other vehicles, and external services, enabling features like real-time traffic updates, remote diagnostics, and personalized infotainment systems.
  
  
• 5G Connectivity:
  5G technology will enable faster and more reliable data transmission, supporting features like autonomous driving and connected services.
  
  

4. AI and Machine Learning:

• Predictive Maintenance:
  AI algorithms can analyze vehicle data to predict potential maintenance needs, allowing for proactive repairs and reduced downtime.
  
  
• Personalized Driving Experience:
  AI can learn driver preferences and adjust vehicle settings accordingly, creating a more comfortable and enjoyable experience.
  
  
• Enhanced Safety Systems:
  AI can be used to improve the performance of safety systems, such as pedestrian detection and lane departure warnings.
  
  
• In-Cabin Sensing:
  Using cameras, radar, and other sensors, cars can monitor the driver's attention and detect signs of fatigue or impairment, triggering safety interventions.
  
  

5. Other Emerging Technologies:

• Augmented Reality (AR):
  AR technology can overlay digital information onto the real world, providing drivers with real-time navigation, hazard warnings, and other useful information.
  
  
• Holographic Displays:
  Holographic displays can create immersive and interactive experiences for passengers.
  
  
• 3D Printing:
  3D printing can be used to create custom vehicle parts and accessories, allowing for greater flexibility and personalization.
  
  
• Biometric Authentication:
  Biometric systems, such as fingerprint or facial recognition, can be used to unlock vehicles and personalize settings.
  
  
• Composite Materials:
  Lightweight and strong composite materials, like carbon fiber, can be used to reduce vehicle weight and improve fuel efficiency.
  
  
• Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technology:
  EVs can be used to store and distribute energy back to the grid, contributing to a more sustainable energy system.
  
  

This is a rather incomplete list, but as should. be obvious, EV technology is just one of many.

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---

Okay, I thought before you were saying that EVs were no good because the margins were crappy, the cost reductions weren't translating to good margins for manufacturers, and that they had still to come to compete with upcoming new technologies. So I asked what new tech.

Well, the new tech you've listed here mostly is somethings that can be added to either battery electric Powertrains or gas/diesel Powertrains. Except the mention of fuel cell and hybrid.

Fuel cell isn't going to happen, it appears. There is a problem with efficiency of green hydrogen production.

Hybrid is definitely a possibility. There is an upcoming Chinese car, I forget which, which claims to be able to get up to 1000 miles per tank. But I think this was with nightly plug-in.

So, I think you invalidated (part of) your own writing, prior.

You know, I suspect if we opened the gates to full competition, a company would fill the market slot for:
No frills, few features, full BEV. Cheap EV.

What we see instead is that manufacturers don't want to cannibalize their higher margin businesses.

Musk keeps promising.
Ford specifically says no.
US government keeps out these entrants. The claim is, often, that they are unsafe. I'd venture to guess it's a form of regulatory protectionism. Tata motors, for instance. Are these cheapos less safe than an original VW Bug, for instance? That's another can of worms… I'm not arguing for unsafe cars. But neither do I think every new vehicle sold needs the latest and greatest tech. Someone should simply produce the BEV powertain, keep passenger dry, and don't work about gadgety tech for iPhone connectivity, maps, driver assist sensors, etc.

Just produce a basic (safe) BEV transporter and you should see the price come way down, based on sunk R&D and economies of scale.

I guess I'm talking myself in circles.
More to the point:
Here are 10 cheapest gas cars from $20-25k:

https://www.cars.com/articles/here-are-the-10-cheapest-new-cars-you-can-buy-right-now-421309/#:~:text=1.,is%20standard%20on%20higher%20trims.

The equivalent liste for cheapest EV starts at $29k, and that is your point.
Why is there still such a large gap, price premium for the EV powertrain? Good question!
Do we have mature competition at the low end of the market? I guess I'm saying no, not yet.
That's a good question to explore. When do we get the EV that competes with the lowest $20k car?

I'll leave that question open, and point out that if we did, cost of ownership for the EV would be less than gas. More efficient powertrain on cost of input (electricity vs gas) per mile.
Though, you were saying I'm screwed if I get in a wreck. Hmmm. I think I'll exclude that from the analysis.

This article addresses the question "When do we get $20k EV?":

https://www.motortrend.com/news/the-cheapest-toyota-ev-just-went-on-sale-in-china-for-under-20000/

Google AI says:

While a definitive timeline for a $20,000 EV is uncertain, Volkswagen is planning to launch its ID.1 EV in 2027, with a base price of around 20,000 (or just over $20,000).
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Volkswagen's ID.1 EV:
Volkswagen has confirmed plans for a new entry-level electric vehicle, likely to be called the ID.1, with a base price of around 20,000, or just over $20,000.
Launch Timeline:
The ID.1 EV is expected to arrive in 2027.
Other EV Models:
Volkswagen also plans to launch the ID.2all, which was unveiled in March 2022, in 2026, with a base price of less than 25,000.
Mazda EZ-6:
Mazda launched the EZ-6 electric sedan in China in October 2024, with a price starting at around $19,200.

Here's another article of note:

https://electrek.co/2025/02/14/volkswagen-previews-20000-id-1-ev-ahead-of-march-debut/

It cases me to lookup the Wikipedia page for Volkswagen Group MEB Platform.

And after reading these articles I say, Wife, they are coming!

So, it appears that quite soon we shall see equalization of entrants, gas vs BEV.

Next is user experience of refueling.
That, too, requires much infrastructure upgrades. 100 years on gas puts refueling stations everywhere. And the fuel distribution system is mature. Not so with grid and chargers. But that is a different comparison to powertrain analysis.

The final thing I'm thinking about is lifespan of car, and the ownership experience. No oil changing. ****** (transmission, lol) fluid. Coolant. Etc. I do my own auto upkeep, and boy I'm tired of it. They tell me I'm going to like BEV way better.

And like I have said, I'm on 5 sunny acres. I'm building my own recharging station with solar panels. It's going to be fabulous! My neighbor already has his. 20 modules on a shed. $100 each. I can price elsewhere for $65 each. A $2000 inverter. A $250 level 2 charger plug. Done.
He gets far more juice from that than he can drive, than he knows what to do with.

Where is Tesla's cheap EV?


https://electrek.co/2025/03/13/tesla-upcoming-cheaper-electric-car-stripped-down-model-y/

And this article says Elon may never actually deliver a low end compact EV
https://fortune.com/2025/03/14/elon-musk-tesla-may-have-no-new-car-coming-after-all-model-y/

Musk gives a "pep" talk to employees just hours after Tesla said that it was recalling the Cybertruck due to a defect in a part that could cause a panel to detach and fly into traffic.

An all-hands on deck late night meeting in Austin, Texas announced on short notice to try and calm employees down that was LIVESTREAMED on "X" in which workers and investors saw feeds deleted and then restarted.

The meeting was supposed to start at 9:30 pm but didn't begin streaming until 9:58pm and ended at 11:00 pm EST.

A most unusual late-night meeting that went past 10pm local time at night.

Hmmmm....

Elon Musk Tell Tesla Staff All-Hands: Crisis, What Crisis?

Tesla Springs Last-Minute Public All Hands on Staffers - Business Insider

DiabloWags said:

---

Musk gives a "pep" talk to employees just hours after Tesla said that it was recalling the Cybertruck due to a defect in a part that could cause a panel to detach and fly into traffic.

An all-hands on deck late night meeting in Austin, Texas announced on short notice to try and calm employees down that was LIVESTREAMED on "X" in which investors saw feeds deleted and then restarted.

A most unusual late-night meeting that went past 10pm local time at night.

Hmmmm....

Elon Musk Tell Tesla Staff All-Hands: Crisis, What Crisis?

---

He is just letting them know that folks with an axe to grind are making a big deal out of something that isn't extraordinary. If not for the haters, the meeting would be unnecessary.

oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Musk gives a "pep" talk to employees just hours after Tesla said that it was recalling the Cybertruck due to a defect in a part that could cause a panel to detach and fly into traffic.

An all-hands on deck late night meeting in Austin, Texas announced on short notice to try and calm employees down that was LIVESTREAMED on "X" in which investors saw feeds deleted and then restarted.

A most unusual late-night meeting that went past 10pm local time at night.

Hmmmm....

Elon Musk Tell Tesla Staff All-Hands: Crisis, What Crisis?

---

He is just letting them know that folks with an axe to grind are making a big deal out of something that isn't extraordinary. If not for the haters, the meeting would be unnecessary.

---

Sounds like a hastily put together PR stunt for investors.
Not for employees.

Given some of the quotes, his own employees saw right through this.

DiabloWags said:

---

oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Musk gives a "pep" talk to employees just hours after Tesla said that it was recalling the Cybertruck due to a defect in a part that could cause a panel to detach and fly into traffic.

An all-hands on deck late night meeting in Austin, Texas announced on short notice to try and calm employees down that was LIVESTREAMED on "X" in which investors saw feeds deleted and then restarted.

A most unusual late-night meeting that went past 10pm local time at night.

Hmmmm....

Elon Musk Tell Tesla Staff All-Hands: Crisis, What Crisis?

---

He is just letting them know that folks with an axe to grind are making a big deal out of something that isn't extraordinary. If not for the haters, the meeting would be unnecessary.

---

Sounds like a hastily put together PR stunt for investors.
Not for employees.

Given some of the quotes, his own employees saw right through this.

---

In your own words, the meetings were to calm employees. Obviously, it was also live streamed for the purpose of doing the same for investors. Tesla is obviously under attack and has been for a long time. Unfortunately, the attackers are now more radical and aggressive.

If BYD were US based, how many additional investors would buy their stock?

I know, I know…. You'll say "if BYD was US based, they wouldn't get Chinese subsidies.

The Tesla attacks are getting worse.

Arson. Molotov cocktails. Bouts of gunfire.

This isn't new. The Left has used violence as a political tool for decades.

Only one thing can stop this. In the words of Pat Buchanan: "Force, rooted in justice, and backed by moral courage." 🧵 pic.twitter.com/hajT2vFJ5c

— Eric Schmitt (@Eric_Schmitt) March 20, 2025

Musk needs to tell his car to stand down

They should do a decoy operation and nail a couple of them.


When I was 2nd year at Hastings they had decoy cops dressed like homeless guys to catch people that were assaulting them. A young undercover officer was murdered so they ended the program. At the time one of my professors was a retired justice of the California Supreme Court. He was involved in the appellate decision that reversed the murder conviction of ……the guy that got back on the street and killed the cop.



Policeman's Death Spurs Dispute in San Francisco - The New York Times
(October, 1977)

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/10/03/archives/policemans-death-spurs-dispute-in-san-francisco.html
[keep scrolling until article appears under image]

*My grandfather was OPD. I have no use for lawbreakers , whether they be people blowing up the worst person in the world's cars, or doing attempt murder on cops on J6 (all that rabble should have been shot in place that day and all would have been good shoots).

Maddow tonight showed clips of Musk promising things. This was an effort on her part to show he should not be trusted with (anything? Government secrets?).

I've done my own search and found the following links.

Here in April 2017, he mused that by end of that year their car could drive from a parking lot in LA to a parking lot in NYC without the human doing anything.
The follow-up question I didn't hear was how the car would be recharged along the way.
Of course, it's now 8 years later and we still haven't seen this prediction come true.



Here at March 2018 sxsw event he says by 2019:



Here is 2019 Autonomy Day saying he expects full self driving robotaxis by end of next year:



Here he is in 2022 shareholders mtg talking about self-driving:



Here he is 5 months ago at We, Robot event saying robotaxis by 2026, no, 2027:




Meanwhile… if any of you follow David Lombardi, 49ers reporter, he regularly films his reports while crossing SF in a Waymo (owned by Google) driverless taxi.
Here he is 2 years ago in a Cruise driverless taxi.