concordtom said:

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Is this a real indicator?
Or a made up meme?

Pls explain, reference.

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Can you not read the reference in the chart?
It's not a meme Tom.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

DiabloWags said:

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Anyone that bought the SPY yesterday was in for a surprise.
Closed 90 basis points above its net-asset value.

And today it went Poof!

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Please explain.
You are talking about ticker SPY, the etf, vs the underlying 500 constituents valuation?

If so, yes, it is true that ETFs (and futures) can vary from the underlying. But arbitrage should bring them back in line. However, if a large Market on Close (MOC) imbalance occurs said arbitrage does not have time to occur.

Traders (especially index fund managers) put MOC orders on stocks all the time. But that would be odd for it to occur on an etf.

Anyway, I don't understand what you wrote.

Should be self-explanatory.
The chart clearly shows how the SPY trades vs NAV.
A 90 basis point premium was off the charts and undoubtedly "disappeared" during yesterday's crash.

DiabloWags said:

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Should be self-explanatory.
The chart clearly shows how the SPY trades vs NAV.
A 90 basis point premium was off the charts and undoubtedly "disappeared" during yesterday's crash.

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Okay, well, from a mechanical standpoint, you didn't explain so I'm sticking with my "?"

I used to run index money, remember? The job was all about the mechanics.

Market up almost 2% today. Very interesting. I thought the market would collapse, considering we now have to pay workers $60 per hour to make jeans.

DiabloWags said:

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concordtom said:

---

Is this a real indicator?
Or a made up meme?

Pls explain, reference.

---

Can you not read the reference in the chart?
It's not a meme Tom.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States (USEPUINDXD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

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https://www.policyuncertainty.com/

If you click About Us link it lists Baker, Bloom, and the other guy.

If this were to happen tomorrow, I bet the market would rally on Monday.

concordtom said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Should be self-explanatory.
The chart clearly shows how the SPY trades vs NAV.
A 90 basis point premium was off the charts and undoubtedly "disappeared" during yesterday's crash.

---

Okay, well, from a mechanical standpoint, you didn't explain so I'm sticking with my "?"

I used to run index money, remember? The job was all about the mechanics.

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What else is there left to explain Tom, especially if you supposedly managed an index fund?
The chart shown above is about as self-explanatory as can be.

To be quite frank, I dont know how you ever ran an index fund not being able to comprehend basic concepts such as where a product was trading vs its NAV.

But do you agree that if Trump has a heart attack pulling off his condom tonight that the global markets will rally?

Wait, Trump wears a condom???
Yes, because he can leave behind no evidence that he was there.

Stephanie Rhule speaks TRUTH about yields and the big risk in the Risk Free Return of the CAPITAL ASSET LINE of the Efficient Frontier.



If the global Risk Free Asset just shifted, because Trump is a wild card, then everything shifted.

Stephanie got her start as a financial reporter first. Well, actually, I think she worked Wall Street before joining the reporting business. Financial reporting is what she does best!

Worth a listen!!




Nichole (Miramonte/Orinda 1990, Cal 94, Northwestern 96, Bush Jr WH Communications Director 05/06) is a politico first and so it's fun to watch her asking and learning.


Rhule:
Before joining Bloomberg, Ruhle spent 14 years in finance. While in college, she spent a summer interning for Merrill Lynch.
In 1997, she joined Credit Suisse, where she spent six years working in hedge fund sales. During her time at Credit Suisse First Boston, she served as a vice president and became the highest producing credit derivatives salesperson in the United States.
In 2003, Ruhle joined Deutsche Bank as a credit salesperson covering hedge funds. She ended her eight-year career there as a managing director in Global Markets Senior Relationship Management. While at Deutsche Bank, Ruhle founded the Global Market Women's Network to help women move into leadership roles at the company.
Ruhle joined Bloomberg Television in October 2011, where she co-hosted a two-hour early morning program called Inside Track with co-anchor Erik Schatzker.
In 2012, Ruhle and Schatzker joined Market Makers, a two-hour late morning program. Ruhle then co-hosted Bloomberg GO with David Westin before leaving the network.

Nothing to see here.
Just a normal correction according to Oski.

concordtom said:

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If this were to happen tomorrow, I bet the market would rally on Monday.

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Damn!
It didn't come true.

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Nothing to see here.
Just a normal correction according to Oski.

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1) BULL is up 360% today. Using your bidenesque logic, the stock market is booming!

2) Apparently, I am still in your dome. Thanks for constantly giving me shout outs. Next thing you know, you will be complaining that I respond to 90% of your posts!

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Wags is secretly hoping his portfolio crashes so he can own you in the next post.

Another great day for the U.S. stock market.

How to totally crush the 401k accounts of Americans after 3 months in office
By Donald **** Stain Trump

Powell says there is no Fed "put" during his speech in Chicago today.

MAGA !!!

For suckers and losers.

If you liked the tariff debacle in the markets, you're gonna love the loss of Fed independence trade.

Shocker!

Nothing to see here.
Trump is a business genius and this is how you MAGA!

I don't know which thread it was in when I proposed the question of whether the stock market (S&P) goes up 10% or down 10% from here, but…

It nearly went up that much next day, though not quite. Since, it's been dropping, so that bet is still on.

Everyone said Down, by the way.

We all make bad stock market trades from time to time.
The Luka trade, however…

Nico:

"I did know Luka was important to the fan base. I didn't quite know it to what level" pic.twitter.com/21EW73zQVW

— Oh No He Didn't (@ohnohedidnt24) April 21, 2025

DiabloWags said:

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Nothing to see here.
Trump is a business genius and this is how you MAGA!

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You haven't posted in this thread for three days which means markets have been going up for three days. Your 201k should be close to 301k by now.

Donald Trump promised Americans a "boom like no other" if they elected him president. But based on the stock market's performance during his first 100 days in office, it depends on what you mean by "boom."

The action certainly has been explosive just not in the way investors were hoping. By April 30, Trump will have closed out his first 100 days in office. Despite last week's rally, the S&P 500 Index is down about 8% since his inauguration and on track for its worst run during a president's first 100 days since Gerald Ford in 1974, following Richard Nixon's resignation.

But our Trump apologists and market guru's like Oski say that this is nothing more than a "correction".

lol

A great day in Medical DX.

Earnings from ADPT and EXAS
+33% and +9%

Next week NTRA

I been buying past few months. Finally decided might as well get some Berkshire Hathaway the other day. Never really trusted Buffet but golly, his track record mighty good. All the talk about tariffs etc… with the media going nuts over stupid stuff just seems like so much manipulation. Up and down, lots of money to be made. My horizon is years down the road and I am very enthusiastic about the direction America is going!

76BearsFly said:

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All the talk about tariffs etc… with the media going nuts over stupid stuff just seems like so much manipulation.

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I would suggest that tariffs arent stupid stuff.

They are profit margin killers. Growth killers. And a catalyst for higher prices and loss of jobs. This is Basic Econ. 1 stuff.

Think anyone is going to buy a fairly well equipped Ford Mach-E for $50,000 with a $12,000 tariff added to it?

Think again.

PS. You'll probably be 'ok" with Berkshire.
Buffet isnt a growth stock investor. And he owns $300 Billion in T-Bills.

DiabloWags said:

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A great day in Medical DX.

Earnings from ADPT and EXAS
+33% and +9%

Next week NTRA

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Call your ex because we're so back. pic.twitter.com/bowKDeO5mO

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 2, 2025

You are correct, tariffs etc…, do matter. I just see it as a foregone conclusion that ultimately, deals get done. What is novel here, inter alia, is the minute by minute negotiation coverage. It has worked well to instill some fear with the over priced markets needing a good hair cut. I also like the US's chances to achieve a "net" long-term gain over the status quo. Time will tell.

76BearsFly said:

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You are correct, tariffs etc…, do matter. I just see it as a foregone conclusion that ultimately, deals get done. What is novel here, inter alia, is the minute by minute negotiation coverage. It has worked well to instill some fear with the over priced markets needing a good hair cut. I also like the US's chances to achieve a "net" long-term gain over the status quo. Time will tell.

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There's barely been a hair cut given that the S&P is trading at 22.2x next years earnings. Can't wait to see what happens July 9th, which of course means there's a ton of "uncertainty" until then.

Data shows that Institutions were the net sellers while the public stood pat, and some were buyers.

Stay nimble.

PS. Buffett (unexpectedly) announced this morning that he's retiring at the end of this year.

He's recommending to the board that Vice Chair Greg Abel replace him.

Paul Tudor Jones - Wikipedia

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 New Hampshire Governor signs law allowing the state to invest in Bitcoin & crypto.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 6, 2025

A trade deal morning pic.twitter.com/GYdMebpsgo

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 8, 2025

Markets continue to climb.

NATERA Q1 EARNINGS SOLID.

Revenues $501.8 million vs $367.7 million

37% YoY product growth.

63.1% gross margins.

25 Presentations coming up at ASCO - May 30 - June 3 in Chicago

Genentech Trial readout due at midyear in bladder cancer.
This would be the first companion DX test.

1.0 Million 22q tests (Di George Syndrome) performed with no reimbursement.

It's built into the COGS, the CPT code is already in place (@$750) and once in guidelines this will really be a big boost to revs. Could be anywhere between $200 - $500 reimbursement per test.

Do the Math.

45% of oncologists are already placing orders for Signatera (ctDNA)

Natera, Inc. | Natera Reports First Quarter 2025 Financial Results