OT: What to do about the Russians?

52,266 Views | 672 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by Unit2Sucks
sycasey
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CALiforniALUM;842838035 said:

For starters, we need to go back to where every US voting machine has the ability to do a physical recount of the vote. After the Florida hanging chad vote diabolical, many districts now use digital only machines with no ability to do a physical recount. Second, I think our system could be improved if we fairly dealt with the gerrymandering issue. If those in power can draw the lines to their benefit, then you present a very real possibility of somebody assuming power based on a minority or even an election influenced vote. Although I see the basis for the original use/design of the electoral college, I think in practice it does entirely work. I'd be supportive of not eliminating it, but fixing it. Have a standard process for which electoral college votes are made and do away with prohibitions that an electoral college voter can't go against the people if there are extenuating circumstances - like say proof of a foreign influence in the vote. This past election served as a decent example of how the electoral college didn't really work (not because it went against the popular vote), but because there was a real possibility that the election was influenced by a foreign actor.

A more difficult challenge has to do with fake news and propaganda issue. As long as you believe in the first amendment, I don't see how you address this issue outside of putting political pressure and economic sanctions on a foreign actor to extract a cost for doing these activities. I think there is a certain level of psychology involved with these things. If you are on the "winning side" of an election (let's say a Trump supporter or more generally a republican) there is a tendency to be complacent or even reactionary in denouncing your own win. This is all to say that I don't hold much hope for a well-informed populace every being a stop gap for preventing the influence of bad information. Our entire process is predicated on people weighing their options based on the credibility and accuracy of their information. The Internet is a double-edged sword in this case. It offers a huge opportunity to engage people with information, but also to engage with misinformation.


In general, there needs to be much more civic engagement by the public with their government. Way too many people only seem to know who the President is and have no idea who their Senators, Representatives, Governors, etc., are. State Senate or State Assembly? Forget it. It's because of this apathy that some of this nonsense (gerrymandering, effective propaganda, etc.) is happening. If I can thank Trump and the Congressional Republicans for anything, it's been to provoke massive public response, on a level we haven't seen for decades. Congressmen used to have sleepy Town Hall events back in their districts. Now none of them are. If there's a positive effect coming from this crappy health care bill, that's it.

To combat the propaganda, I hope that this engagement with government also leads to more engagement in the public sphere. The best way to combat "fake news" coming from foreign actors is for the friends and family you know and trust to rebut it. I used to let a lot of this stuff go, assuming it was just "those crazies over there" who believed it and it wouldn't affect the rest of us. With Trump in the White House, not so much anymore. If I see some bullshit posted by friends on Facebook now, I jump in to counteract as best I can.
Strykur
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Before bitching about Putin and Russian bashing, take a look at these 2 charts:





What do these mean?

1. The Soviet economy for the last 20 years of its existence, mostly under Brezhnev, stagnated and basically went nowhere compared to the Western democracies. The Soviet system was going to inevitably collapse, regardless of Reagan's arms race in the 1980s or Gorbachev's perestroika.

2. Right after the Soviet collapse, the remaining economy of the new Russian Federation collapses by 50 percent. So, you have an economy that grows anemically for 20 years, then crashes completely in 5. When Putin says the Soviet dissolution was an enormous disaster for Russia, this is what he means. Right after he takes office, the Russian economy takes off, but has barely recovered past 1990 Soviet levels of GDP.

Putin has 80% approval ratings in Russia, and it's easy to see why. In the 90s, America had an economic boom and the West danced on the grave of the Soviet system, while those left in the remnant republics of the Soviet system saw economic ruin. Since Russia has historically been ruled by autocrats going back to the czars, Putin is a worthy tradeoff to ensure that they don't have to live through the hell of the 90s ever again.
burritos
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Strykur;842838179 said:

Before bitching about Putin and Russian bashing, take a look at these 2 charts:





What do these mean?

1. The Soviet economy for the last 20 years of its existence, mostly under Brezhnev, stagnated and basically went nowhere compared to the Western democracies. The Soviet system was going to inevitably collapse, regardless of Reagan's arms race in the 1980s or Gorbachev's perestroika.

2. Right after the Soviet collapse, the remaining economy of the new Russian Federation collapses by 50 percent. So, you have an economy that grows anemically for 20 years, then crashes completely in 5. When Putin says the Soviet dissolution was an enormous disaster for Russia, this is what he means. Right after he takes office, the Russian economy takes off, but has barely recovered past 1990 Soviet levels of GDP.

Putin has 80% approval ratings in Russia, and it's easy to see why. In the 90s, America had an economic boom and the West danced on the grave of the Soviet system, while those left in the remnant republics of the Soviet system saw economic ruin. Since Russia has historically been ruled by autocrats going back to the czars, Putin is a worthy tradeoff to ensure that they don't have to live through the hell of the 90s ever again.


I'm no russophile so don't interpret this as my acceptance of Putin's bad behavior. Nonetheless during WW2(something we Americanskis look upon fondly) there were 27 million Russian deaths. Many at the hands of their own malevolent leaders. I can't imagine what kind of damage this does to the psyche of a people. What kind of leadership is naturally going to arise to both curate and control this post dumpster fire? And don't forget, the West in Napolean pulled the same crap 130 years earlier. That paranoia and the fear that occurs after this type of Armageddon must be tremendous. We are still dealing with the reverberations in this country after the Yankee's Northern Aggression in the south from 150 years ago. I don't know what the solution is. But "We is good' and "They is evil" is not as black and white as it seems.
sycasey
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burritos;842838193 said:

I'm no russophile so don't interpret this as my acceptance of Putin's bad behavior. Nonetheless during WW2(something we Americanskis look upon fondly) there were 27 million Russian deaths. Many at the hands of their own malevolent leaders. I can't imagine what kind of damage this does to the psyche of a people. What kind of leadership is naturally going to arise to both curate and control this post dumpster fire? And don't forget, the West in Napolean pulled the same crap 130 years earlier. That paranoia and the fear that occurs after this type of Armageddon must be tremendous. We are still dealing with the reverberations in this country after the Yankee's Northern Aggression in the south from 150 years ago. I don't know what the solution is. But "We is good' and "They is evil" is not as black and white as it seems.


Ultimately it's on the Russian people themselves to decide when they are tired of authoritarian regimes. As Strykur notes, there was probably a window after the collapse of the USSR for them to embrace a more democratic system (as Germany and Japan did post-WW2), but the collapse of the Russian economy led them back into the arms of another autocrat in Putin. When will this happen? Who knows, that depends on future cycles of history. What the U.S. needs to do is keep this influence out of our political system as much as possible for now. Mission very much not accomplished with Trump.
burritos
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sycasey;842838202 said:

Ultimately it's on the Russian people themselves to decide when they are tired of authoritarian regimes. As Strykur notes, there was probably a window after the collapse of the USSR for them to embrace a more democratic system (as Germany and Japan did post-WW2), but the collapse of the Russian economy led them back into the arms of another autocrat in Putin. When will this happen? Who knows, that depends on future cycles of history. What the U.S. needs to do is keep this influence out of our political system as much as possible for now. Mission very much not accomplished with Trump.

I think democracy sometimes is a luxury available to nation states who have adequate wealth to sponsor it. 144 million people voting to split up a theoretical post Putin economic pie which is 8% of the US's GDP would be ugly.
CAL6371
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Frankly I am very proud to see our democracy at work today in the Russia hearing in the Senate. The intelligence and integrity of the two witnesse who testified and the thoughtfulness of the questioning by the Senators was of the highest order imo. Then, on came the R southern yahoo (whose named I missed) and it went downhill to Leahy and the SNL clown from Minnesota. There are some idiots in the Senate, but the start was outstanding imo. Very well worth watching. .
MSaviolives
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And Putin needs to return that Super Bowl ring. (Posted to provide a football reference.)
68great
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GB54;842838066 said:

Absolutely. How different it would be if we had accepted Putin's overtures to the West and NATO in his early days instead of extending our military and political power to their doorsteps


Putin is a former hard-liner and one of the top men at the KGB. Since getting into politics his stated objective is to Make Russia Great Again.
He clearly stated his concern that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century.
He has taken control of the Russian Oligarchs through bribery and violence to become the richest man in the world.
He jails or preferably kills his political opponents.
Putin's "overtures" to the West and to NATO were clearly no more than a ruse and were not meant in good faith.
Hence they were rejected.
sycasey
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CAL6371;842838216 said:

Frankly I am very proud to see our democracy at work today in the Russia hearing in the Senate. The intelligence and integrity of the two witnesse who testified and the thoughtfulness of the questioning by the Senators was of the highest order imo. Then, on came the R southern yahoo (whose named I missed) and it went downhill to Leahy and the SNL clown from Minnesota. There are some idiots in the Senate, but the start was outstanding imo. Very well worth watching. .


A few weeks into the Trump presidency, one of my friends wondered, "What does Trump do when he finds out he can't fire Senators?"

Might be finding that out now.
GATC
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burritos;842838117 said:

When I was a teen in the late 80's I would read about how soviet soldiers were getting slaughtered by Afghani rebels and feel enormous pride. I don't know why I did, I just did. I hated the Russians. Looking back, I think it was just good ol' anti commie indoctrination working well. Now I could care less. They've never done anything to me and I doubt they ever will. What's their GDP? 1 trillion dollars? Yeah, Apple should be catching them in a few years. They are no threat. I'm mortally at higher risk of dying from an American who is texting/driving or some p!ssed off drunk unemployed ignoramus with a crowbar who confuses me for some other immigrant he wants to harm. All nation states need bogeymen to keep the populace at attention and quelled. Could I be naive? It's possible. I guess my life could be better if I had a heightened amount of indefinite anxiousness.


Your comment surprised me so I looked it up. I was shocked to see Russia's GDP at 11th in the world, right behind Canada and just ahead of Korea. Japan's GDP is more than 3X that of Russia.
Unit2Sucks
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GATC;842838235 said:

Your comment surprised me so I looked it up. I was shocked to see Russia's GDP at 11th in the world, right behind Canada and just ahead of Korea. Japan's GDP is more than 3X that of Russia.


And lest we forget, California's GDP is almost 2x Russia's. And California is considered more of an adversary than Russia by some in Washington these days.
CAL6371
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MSaviolives - very good line.
MSaviolives
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burritos;842838175 said:

I would argue that crony capitalism/oligarchism as a consequence of Putin pales in comparison compared to what is committed by Goldman Sachs alone, much less the Banks in Manhattan collectively. If Putin were born in the 50's in the U.S. he probably would be CEO of some bank.

Now I don't blame these financiers for doing what they are doing. Legions of people, like myself, want to save/preserve/growth wealth(which is not morally wrong is it?). Unless you are going to stash your money in the mattress we all hand our earnings(by the trillions) in some form or another to these middle men market makers and their institutions. Putin is nothing compared to the power of these anonymous kings and kingmakers.


I think a hostile adversary nation interfering in our elections/democracy is kind of a thing. Its hacking both parties, but only releasing the emails of one of them is also a thing. Its hacking state voter databases and colluding with members of a presidential election team on when to release the hacked info and targeted fake news is also a thing. Financiers at least influence our elections fair and square--with money (indeed, it is the Merican Way). Just my opinion...
sycasey
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burritos;842838213 said:

I think democracy sometimes is a luxury available to nation states who have adequate wealth to sponsor it. 144 million people voting to split up a theoretical post Putin economic pie which is 8% of the US's GDP would be ugly.


I don't know. There are other countries economically not any better off than Russia that still manage to have functional democracies.
burritos
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Unit2Sucks;842838237 said:

And lest we forget, California's GDP is almost 2x Russia's. And California is considered more of an adversary than Russia by some in Washington these days.

GDP of Norcal + GDP of Socal
> Russia GDP
burritos
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sycasey;842838251 said:

I don't know. There are other countries economically not any better off than Russia that still manage to have functional democracies.


Not better in total, or not better per capita? Maybe. Who?
burritos
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MSaviolives;842838242 said:

I think a hostile adversary nation interfering in our elections/democracy is kind of a thing. Its hacking both parties, but only releasing the emails of one of them is also a thing. Its hacking state voter databases and colluding with members of a presidential election team on when to release the hacked info and targeted fake news is also a thing. Financiers at least influence our elections fair and square--with money (indeed, it is the Merican Way). Just my opinion...

Does this outrage include American espionage into Russian affairs and their border states? Or do you think this does not happen? And if it is happening, are you outraged that we are doing it? or that we aren't doing it better than they are?
burritos
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GATC;842838235 said:

Your comment surprised me so I looked it up. I was shocked to see Russia's GDP at 11th in the world, right behind Canada and just ahead of Korea. Japan's GDP is more than 3X that of Russia.


Why are you shocked. Have you ever bought anything from Russia?
GB54
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MSaviolives;842838242 said:

I think a hostile adversary nation interfering in our elections/democracy is kind of a thing. Its hacking both parties, but only releasing the emails of one of them is also a thing. Its hacking state voter databases and colluding with members of a presidential election team on when to release the hacked info and targeted fake news is also a thing. Financiers at least influence our elections fair and square--with money (indeed, it is the Merican Way). Just my opinion...


I would argue that the financiers were much more responsible for electing Obama and Trump than Putin and have done more damage than Putin could ever imagine
burritos
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MSaviolives;842838242 said:

I think a hostile adversary nation interfering in our elections/democracy is kind of a thing. Its hacking both parties, but only releasing the emails of one of them is also a thing. Its hacking state voter databases and colluding with members of a presidential election team on when to release the hacked info and targeted fake news is also a thing. Financiers at least influence our elections fair and square--with money (indeed, it is the Merican Way). Just my opinion...

Who is annoying and thus having more of an impact on you right now? Putin or the annoying pop up ads?
GB54
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burritos;842838276 said:

Who is annoying and thus having more of an impact on you right now? Putin or the annoying pop up ads?


For most of these posters, those would be the same
GB54
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68great;842838219 said:

Putin is a former hard-liner and one of the top men at the KGB. Since getting into politics his stated objective is to Make Russia Great Again.
He clearly stated his concern that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century.
He has taken control of the Russian Oligarchs through bribery and violence to become the richest man in the world.
He jails or preferably kills his political opponents.
Putin's "overtures" to the West and to NATO were clearly no more than a ruse and were not meant in good faith.
Hence they were rejected.


Silly analysis. Smarter people than you have written about this

George Kennan:

"I think [NATO's expansion] is the beginning of a new cold war," said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. "I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves. We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a light-hearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs." ...

"I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe. Don't people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime."

NATO's expansion, Kennan said, "shows so little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians arebut this is just wrong."

Kennan also predicted that the alliance's enlargement would result in a "new cold war, probably ending in a hot one" and the death of democracy in Russia. There is no more succinct a diagnosis of what happened than his.
MaximusArelliusDaBearius
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This is a ridicules argument. We've not only affected elections we've killed to affect them. The fact that they hacked us, something we've admitted doing to them is a non issue. Russia is constantly at war with all threats as is the U.S. There is nothing new in the world. Its politics as usual.
sycasey
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burritos;842838265 said:

Not better in total, or not better per capita? Maybe. Who?


I suppose it depends on who is measuring and how, but here are some lists to go by (GDP per capita):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Below Russia I see Brazil, Mexico, Dominican Republic, South Africa, Jamaica, India, and that's just at a glance. Now, I'm not saying that all of those countries are paradises or have perfect governments, but they are not ruled by autocrats.
tequila4kapp
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What to do about Russia?

Well let's see, they exposed ugly truths about HRC and the Dems, and also ugliness about Republicans. The first thing we could do is clean up our own system and be more transparent and democratic so the Russians and others like them don't have anything to leak.

There is no evidence they hacked or changed votes and no evidence they colluded with Trump, so nothing to do there.

We try to influence elections in other countries. Maybe we could stop doing that so we have better moral standing on the matter.

I agree with many of the other comments about economic and other forces to weaken Putin.
BearGoggles
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Probably the worst thing we can do re Putin is to overemphasize what actually happened. Putin didn't really think he could affect our election or France's. But he knew that even if he didn't, he could provoke a massive overreaction. And hopefully get the republicans/dems to turn on each other.

We need to investigate what happened during the election. And we need to investigate whether any Trump officials colluded. But until there is actual evidence of collusion, we need to stop with the absurd, over the top rhetoric and conspiracy theories. At this point, there is no more evidence of Trump collusion than of Obama having "wiretapped" Trump. Stop feeding the troll (Putin). All of this serves his ends by aggrandizing him and weakening the USA.

Geo-politically, the US needs to push back on Putin (so there is at least a price to be paid when he acts out), shore up relations with allies and independent nations (Turkey being particularly important), and not get entangled in more wasteful nation building distractions. Economic sanctions should be used as well, though that has limited effect.
Big C
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GB54;842838299 said:

Silly analysis. Smarter people than you have written about this

George Kennan:

"I think [NATO's expansion] is the beginning of a new cold war," said Mr. Kennan from his Princeton home. "I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves. We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a light-hearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs." ...

"I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe. Don't people understand? Our differences in the cold war were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime."

NATO's expansion, Kennan said, "shows so little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians arebut this is just wrong."

Kennan also predicted that the alliance's enlargement would result in a "new cold war, probably ending in a hot one" and the death of democracy in Russia. There is no more succinct a diagnosis of what happened than his.


Kennan is spot on about the foolishness of expanding NATO, but I disagree when he criticizes us for "turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet Regime". Our problem isn't and hasn't ever been with the Russian people, but their leadership. Putin is a nogoodnik.
Big C
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burritos;842838269 said:

Why are you shocked. Have you ever bought anything from Russia?


I don't know, I have one of those sets of Russian wooden dolls that nest: Really high quality; solid craftsmanship. Great innovation, too (You don't see any of those fancy Silicon Valley start-ups doing anything like this!) Without a doubt the best set of nesting wooden dolls I've ever owned. Based on this, I would expect the next Tesla or Apple Computer to be coming out of Russia very soon.
Papitobear
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burritos;842838269 said:

Have you ever bought anything from Russia?


Tubes for my Woo Audio headphone amp and tubes for the Marshall amp to my Gibson Les Paul.
dajo9
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tequila4kapp;842838336 said:

What to do about Russia?

Well let's see, they exposed ugly truths about HRC and the Dems, and also ugliness about Republicans. The first thing we could do is clean up our own system and be more transparent and democratic so the Russians and others like them don't have anything to leak.

There is no evidence they hacked or changed votes and no evidence they colluded with Trump, so nothing to do there.

We try to influence elections in other countries. Maybe we could stop doing that so we have better moral standing on the matter.

I agree with many of the other comments about economic and other forces to weaken Putin.


The real threat isn't Putin himself, it is the possible collusion between members of our government with Putin to steer our country. There is a ton of innuendo out there based on what Clapper and Comey say is classified intelligence and which the FBI is currently investigating.

What we know is that Trump's NSA lead (Flynn) was known to be compromised by Russia at the time Trump installed him. Trump kept Flynn for 18 days after he was specifically informed, and only then fired Flynn after news reports broke. Trump's campaign manager is known to have a long history working with Putin allies (Manafort). Trump's business empire has extensive financing from Russia, as per the Trump children. There are others related to Trump and Russia, such as Carter Page, Rex Tillerson, Felix Sater. Then folks like Jeff Sessions and Jared Kushner lied about meetings with Russians (Sessions committing perjury under oath in the process).

The FBI is part of the executive branch so I would feel better with an independent investigation. I can't understand why that isn't a bipartisan viewpoint.
1979bear
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Albania Bulgaria Slovenia. Members of NATO? Allies America NEEDS to defend? No way. I don't want our armed forces required to risk their lives for these countries. This is as bad to me as losing lives in the Middle East. If Russia were to retake some of the 'stans, BFD.
TouchedTheAxeIn82
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dajo9;842838370 said:

The FBI is part of the executive branch so I would feel better with an independent investigation. I can't understand why that isn't a bipartisan viewpoint.


Because everyone is missing the real point. The biggest threat to our democracy is tribal politics. American democracy with its checks and balances works fine if everyone valued country/constitution over party. Trump still has a strong base of support despite his obvious incompetence and corruption. Most Republican politicians don't like Trump because he is not really a Republican, but they are enabling his corruption and tolerating the damage he is doing to America's moral standing and leadership as they work on their common agenda, which consists of one thing, further enriching their wealthy individual and corporate donors.

Even 20 years ago Trump probably wouldn't have been impeached this early in his presidency (even though one might argue he was violating the constitution the moment he took office), but I doubt the Republicans back then would have been actively protecting him (e.g., Nunes) regarding his connections to Russia.

The reason why democracy is not a viable option in many places without a democratic tradition (e.g., Iraq) is tribal politics. The danger of Trump is that he inspires more partisanship. The truest thing he ever said was that he could shoot someone on a street corner and still not lose votes. That's the danger.
MSaviolives
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burritos;842838266 said:

Does this outrage include American espionage into Russian affairs and their border states? Or do you think this does not happen? And if it is happening, are you outraged that we are doing it? or that we aren't doing it better than they are?



Excellent whataboutism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism http://www.npr.org/2017/03/17/520435073/trump-embraces-one-of-russias-favorite-propaganda-tactics-whataboutism
dajo9
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TouchedTheAxeIn82;842838379 said:

Because everyone is missing the real point. The biggest threat to our democracy is tribal politics. American democracy with its checks and balances works fine if everyone valued country/constitution over party. Trump still has a strong base of support despite his obvious incompetence and corruption. Most Republican politicians don't like Trump because he is not really a Republican, but they are enabling his corruption and tolerating the damage he is doing to America's moral standing and leadership as they work on their common agenda, which consists of one thing, further enriching their wealthy individual and corporate donors.

Even 20 years ago Trump probably wouldn't have been impeached this early in his presidency (even though one might argue he was violating the constitution the moment he took office), but I doubt the Republicans back then would have been actively protecting him (e.g., Nunes) regarding his connections to Russia.

The reason why democracy is not a viable option in many places without a democratic tradition (e.g., Iraq) is tribal politics. The danger of Trump is that he inspires more partisanship. The truest thing he ever said was that he could shoot someone on a street corner and still not lose votes. That's the danger.


So, what you're saying is, it is up to moderate Republicans to save our country by rejecting those Republicans in office who are putting party over country
OdontoBear66
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dajo9;842838386 said:

So, what you're saying is, it is up to moderate Republicans to save our country by rejecting those Republicans in office who are putting party over country


Add in blue dog Democrats if they exist any more and you might have something.
 
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