More rumors: B1G to expand this week (Pac 12 to bust)

85,423 Views | 612 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by ColoradoBear
SoFlaBear
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Question for all:

Since this has become a free-for-all.......

1) Does the Big 12, which seems all-but-certain to get the Arizonas and Utah, make an offer to get Cal and Stanford "at a discounted payout?" As we've all pointed out - business. The Bay Area would be a huge TV market for them.

2) Along the same lines - do they jump in and try to grab the Cougs and the Beavs?
edwinbear
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ColoradoBear said:

Strykur said:

TedfordTheGreat said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. Its basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise
this is our only hope.

They took UCLA and USC first

then take UO and UW (for less)

then hopefully take us for even less.

but its a depressing day, to see that we are worth so little. But thats the reality, we need the life raft so that we even have a chance to turn it around.
This is how business is conducted.


I get that the Big Ten has all the leverage here, but they are also likely trying to put together a late night + additional normal time games package for TV. Does a TV partners want games when 2 of 4 teams or 4 of 6 teams are going to be finacially strapped and potentially non competitive? I mean maybe... If there is one big name eastern team playing weekly on the West coast, some people will watch. And probably more than if it's a game with two west coast teams.


Let's show reasons for why we should be included first before telling everyone why we shouldn't.
DoubtfulBear
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edwinbear said:

ColoradoBear said:

Strykur said:

TedfordTheGreat said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. Its basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise
this is our only hope.

They took UCLA and USC first

then take UO and UW (for less)

then hopefully take us for even less.

but its a depressing day, to see that we are worth so little. But thats the reality, we need the life raft so that we even have a chance to turn it around.
This is how business is conducted.


I get that the Big Ten has all the leverage here, but they are also likely trying to put together a late night + additional normal time games package for TV. Does a TV partners want games when 2 of 4 teams or 4 of 6 teams are going to be finacially strapped and potentially non competitive? I mean maybe... If there is one big name eastern team playing weekly on the West coast, some people will watch. And probably more than if it's a game with two west coast teams.


Let's show reasons for why we should be included first before telling everyone why we shouldn't.
What reasons do we have besides academic success and the *potential* that all the apathetic households in the Bay Area will suddenly want to pay to watch us?
Strykur
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SoFlaBear said:

Question for all:

Since this has become a free-for-all.......

1) Does the Big 12, which seems all-but-certain to get the Arizonas and Utah, make an offer to get Cal and Stanford "at a discounted payout?" As we've all pointed out - business. The Bay Area would be a huge TV market for them.

2) Along the same lines - do they jump in and try to grab the Cougs and the Beavs?
1. Big-12 antipathy is mutual with all parties, that is not happening.
2. Big-12 has enough for 16 at this time, if they want to expand further they need more media partners, so unlikely.
Big Dog
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SoFlaBear said:

Question for all:

Since this has become a free-for-all.......

1) Does the Big 12, which seems all-but-certain to get the Arizonas and Utah, make an offer to get Cal and Stanford "at a discounted payout?" As we've all pointed out - business. The Bay Area would be a huge TV market for them.

2) Along the same lines - do they jump in and try to grab the Cougs and the Beavs?
1. No, and no it's not. Iowa State vs. Cal after dark is not must-see TV.

2. No, and no. Iowa State vs. Wazzou in the Paloose after dark is even worse TV.
Econ141
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At least a respectful statement and open communication with their stakeholders. Cal on the other hand continues to be Cal. Show us that you give a d@mn for crying out loud.

nikeykid
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lol pac2 coming
socaltownie
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nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

Honestly that would be just ****ing hysterical. We woud have moved to farce.
berserkeley
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nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming



I find it very hard to believe that the Big XII would add OSU and WSU before one of Cal/Stanford.

If true, this would be the second rumor that suggests either Cal and Stanford have decided to drop college football or they have the best kept secret in college football with a deal to join the the B1G at bargain basement prices.
DoubtfulBear
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socaltownie said:

nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

Honestly that would be just ****ing hysterical. We woud have moved to farce.
If that happened, we should just join UConn, UMass, Army and Navy as independents
BigDaddy
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DoubtfulBear said:

socaltownie said:

nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

Honestly that would be just ****ing hysterical. We woud have moved to farce.
If that happened, we should just join UConn, UMass, Army and Navy as independents
Navy is not an independent. They're in the American Athletic Conference.

“My tastes are simple; I am easily satisfied with the best.” - Winston Churchill
Anarchistbear
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DoubtfulBear said:

socaltownie said:

nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

Honestly that would be just ****ing hysterical. We woud have moved to farce.
If that happened, we should just join UConn, UMass, Army and Navy as independents



And move to New Jersey
Big Dog
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nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

How's the afternoon conference call going with the now Pac2?


Will the last Pac member turn out the lights?
glb78
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That, too.
Strykur
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Utah has been offered and presumably accepted a Big-12 invite.
westcoast101
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I still think what comes out of all this is that we/Stanford get a Big Ten invite for pennies on the dollar. Hell, we might even have to pay our way in.
calumnus
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sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
maxer
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calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
This is likely the way. Not guaranteed, but I think the likeliest outcome.
WalterSobchak
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Even if we crash and burn I hope this happens for the Beavs and Cougs
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calumnus
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Econ141 said:

At least a respectful statement and open communication with their stakeholders. Cal on the other hand continues to be Cal. Show us that you give a d@mn for crying out loud.




I really wanted us to poach Chun from WSU instead of extending Knowlton for life.
bluehenbear
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nikeykid said:




lol pac2 coming

bluehenbear
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calumnus said:

Econ141 said:

At least a respectful statement and open communication with their stakeholders. Cal on the other hand continues to be Cal. Show us that you give a d@mn for crying out loud.




I really wanted us to poach Chun from WSU instead of extending Knowlton for life.
Fscking leadership. What does that look like?
calumnus
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bluehenbear said:

calumnus said:

Econ141 said:

At least a respectful statement and open communication with their stakeholders. Cal on the other hand continues to be Cal. Show us that you give a d@mn for crying out loud.




I really wanted us to poach Chun from WSU instead of extending Knowlton for life.
Fscking leadership. What does that look like?


Plus Chun has strong B1G bonafides and connections, not nearly enough to get WSU in, but he would have been a great advisor to Christ and could have been her B1G negotiator over the last 14 months since USC and UCLA announced their departures.
DoubtfulBear
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calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
Fox/CBS/NBC has no incentive to pay extra for us so the existing members will have to be willing to get less to pay for us. The only way I see this happening is if we get G5 level money at $5M a year at best
Bobodeluxe
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12 Big Games a year. Oh, he11 yeah!
Econ141
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Bobodeluxe said:

12 Big Games a year. Oh, he11 yeah!


I would not be opposed to this
bluehenbear
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Rebrand as "The Only Game"

Maybe we can sell the "the Big Game" brand to the NFL to fund the athletic department.
eastcoastcal
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And we're down to 4. wow

calumnus
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DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
Fox/CBS/NBC has no incentive to pay extra for us so the existing members will have to be willing to get less to pay for us. The only way I see this happening is if we get G5 level money at $5M a year at best
.

The B1G will have more content and will have more revenues, even if just streaming. $5 million is our floor. I think we get $20 million or so, something like what we were about to sign for at the PAC-2 meeting this morning. Maybe the B1G plays hardball and we only get $10 million, but I think B1G goodwill/pity and Christ's charisma gets us whatever amount we add without dilution. Plus maybe a loan.
bluehenbear
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Man, if Cal and furd were the only two schools agreeing to the GOR...
DoubtfulBear
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calumnus said:

DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
Fox/CBS/NBC has no incentive to pay extra for us so the existing members will have to be willing to get less to pay for us. The only way I see this happening is if we get G5 level money at $5M a year at best
.

The B1G will have more content and will have more revenues, even if just streaming. $5 million is our floor. I think we get $20 million or so, something like what we were about to sign for at the PAC-2 meeting this morning. Maybe the B1G plays hardball and we only get $10 million, but I think B1G goodwill/pity and Christ's charisma gets us whatever amount we add without dilution. Plus maybe a loan.
They don't need more content, there's only so many timeslots for Saturday afternoon/evening. High value brands separating from low value brands is literally the only driver for conference realignment
BearSD
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DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.

Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
Fox/CBS/NBC has no incentive to pay extra for us so the existing members will have to be willing to get less to pay for us. The only way I see this happening is if we get G5 level money at $5M a year at best
.

The B1G will have more content and will have more revenues, even if just streaming. $5 million is our floor. I think we get $20 million or so, something like what we were about to sign for at the PAC-2 meeting this morning. Maybe the B1G plays hardball and we only get $10 million, but I think B1G goodwill/pity and Christ's charisma gets us whatever amount we add without dilution. Plus maybe a loan.
They don't need more content, there's only so many timeslots for Saturday afternoon/evening. High value brands separating from low value brands is literally the only driver for conference realignment
The Big Ten doesn't even need Oregon and Washington now. They just figured that acquiring them at half price might be a good investment down the road when an even larger amount of content is attractive for streaming.
sycasey
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calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.

For most of my life, Cal athletics has been about doing the bare minimum to stay afloat. This would be no different.
Anarchistbear
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Oregon and Washington are 1 and 2 in athletic revenue in the conference. The incessant harping on size of media markets ignores the essential reality: these are successful programs with loyal fan bases that generate cash. Cash rules not academic reputation or size of media markets as witness the whiz kids from Eugene

Cal 's football and basketball programs are not great money makers, have an apathetic administration plus we are saddled with paying for too many country club sports. This brings too little.
calumnus
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DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

DoubtfulBear said:

calumnus said:

sycasey said:

Fire Starkey said:

Once this ball started rolling, I never thought the Big10 would take more than Oregon and Washington initially. They can get them for a 60ish% share (which looks like it is happening). Then they can stand pat or wait a bit and get Cal and Furd for a 30-40ish% share. It's basic leverage and negotiations and there absolutely is value in Cal and Furd in the Big10 but why wouldnt they get us as cheaply as possible? I really hope this happens cause the alternative is bleak for Cal athletics otherwise

I still feel like this is the most likely scenario. The B1G presidents have been pretty public about wanting Stanford/Cal. Just gotta make the money work.


Yes, but Stanford and Cal have not been public about wanting the B1G. It has been the opposite, they have criticized expansion and pledged loyalty to a doomed PAC. I never questioned Christ's ability. I questioned her decision. .People here assured us that Christ was doing everything possible to get us in, even secretly negotiating a secret deal. I think it is clear that did not happen and we have rode the Kliavkoff plane to its fiery end.

So now the PAC is done, Christ will have no choice but to try to get us in too. The good news is the B1G presidents want us and Christ is smart, competent and can get this deal done. I think we get in the B1G in the coming weeks. The bad news is the strategic path she has chosen has left us with zero leverage and we will get a much lower payout than we might have otherwise. But it is only money. One more bad fiscal move for our athletics department. It will be up to the next chancellor to decide how to handle the deficits or big donors to cover them. I think sending most non-revenue sports to the UC dominated Big West makes a ton of sense.
Fox/CBS/NBC has no incentive to pay extra for us so the existing members will have to be willing to get less to pay for us. The only way I see this happening is if we get G5 level money at $5M a year at best
.

The B1G will have more content and will have more revenues, even if just streaming. $5 million is our floor. I think we get $20 million or so, something like what we were about to sign for at the PAC-2 meeting this morning. Maybe the B1G plays hardball and we only get $10 million, but I think B1G goodwill/pity and Christ's charisma gets us whatever amount we add without dilution. Plus maybe a loan.
They don't need more content, there's only so many timeslots for Saturday afternoon/evening. High value brands separating from low value brands is literally the only driver for conference realignment


Streaming is not slot driven. There will be revenues from it. Not huge revenues, but revenues.

As for linear broadcasters: 6 WC teams means three games each week on the West Coast. 12:30, 3:30 and 6:30 PST (say). That is 3:30, 6:30 and 9:30 EST. There is value to that.

 
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