The Big Ten will wait to see what happens with the Pac 12 (all eyes on Arizona). However, if the Big Ten chooses to expand, the focus is now on adding just two teams: Oregon and Washington, industry sources tell Yahoo Sports. https://t.co/HHnT2XcZjS

— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) August 3, 2023

OskiDeLaHoya said:

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mbBear said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

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What does this mean exactly? Yeah, you aren't the first person to make this statement, but, I don't get it: you mean with Furd and Cal in the conference, Purdue is somehow elevated academically (and whatever that means) and that association means more in dollars and cents than what they will be losing in splitting the pie more ways?
Okay, I will even confess to being one of the "idiots on the internet," but open minded to trying to understand this. I mean, even if it's not strictly tied to dollars, is there a marketing component that I am missing? Have Oregon St and Washington St. benefited in this way from being in the Pac-12 with Furd/Cal?

Just to add as an aside: the Big 10 Network/Big 10 Presidents promising educational programming when they first started up...

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Our good friends at the University of Utah believe that being affiliated with Stanford and Cal has helped elevate their academic stature. Back in 2010, they had about $450M in research funding. In 2022, they had about $686M, a very big increase. They were also invited to join the AAU in 2019.

How does Cal help its conference mates elevate their research game? Well, I forget where I read this on the internets during this conference realignment saga, but apparently Cal has a Research Support team (I forget the official name) that specializes in grant writing among other things and which is top of the line. Others have tried to replicate it but could not. Their services are apparently offered for free to our conference mates. You can see how something like that may have contributed to the increase in Utah's research funding. I'm sure there are other examples.

Now, you might say that the B1G already has their BTAA (Big Ten Academic Alliance), which includes University of Chicago and Johns Hopkins and don't need Cal. That may be true. The BTAA does even more collaboration among member schools than the Pac. I believe they're integrating their libraries (and maybe they will get access to our libraries thru UCLA anyway). They also work together on procurement for their research. As you can imagine, that improves their buying power when they are sourcing materials collectively. Other examples I've heard are joint leadership development training. Each institution can nominate new associate professors and send them to joint training courses.

I think their Presidents would view Cal as a valuable addition for all of the above.

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Thanks for sharing something that goes beyond general statements...

DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

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Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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ESPN will still have the after dark slot with Arizona schools

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Arizona schools that aren't proven right now. They could have a marquee matchup with Oregon/Utah/UW/whatever flavor of the month in the Pac instead?

Just checked the weekly average -- Oregon is at 2.21 million a week versus Arizona at 600k -- that's a huge disparity.

eastbayyoungbear said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

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Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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ESPN will still have the after dark slot with Arizona schools

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Arizona schools that aren't proven right now. They could have a marquee matchup with Oregon/Utah/UW/whatever flavor of the month in the Pac instead?

Just checked the weekly average -- Oregon is at 2.21 million a week versus Arizona at 600k -- that's a huge disparity.

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Sure, but us and Stanfurd are currently at the same level of on field success and viewership as the Arizona schools. No point in paying for an entire conference when you can just pay for two schools to join Big12.

socaltownie said:

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mbBear said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

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What does this mean exactly? Yeah, you aren't the first person to make this statement, but, I don't get it: you mean with Furd and Cal in the conference, Purdue is somehow elevated academically (and whatever that means) and that association means more in dollars and cents than what they will be losing in splitting the pie more ways?

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1) I don't want to turn this into a dichtomy but likely one one side are people who are largely academic administrators who like the prestige, association, and rubbing of elbows (up to and including futgure academic cooperation) with 2 of the most selective institutions in the country.

On the other side are ADs. Remember, one of the intersting facts of this is that the differnce between 20 and 31 million is pretty much peanuts at a place like cal that is like a 3 BILLION enterprise. But it is probably the difference between our AD getting a summer home in Vail. These things matter ;-)

2) the unknown (or at least I have never gotten good data and I have tried as part of my professional life) is publically accessible data on TV viewerships by media market for specific games and properties. Not that 3 million watched U of W's game against Oregon but how those 3 milllion parsed out between Seatte, Portland and everywhere else. It costs several tens of thousands to get that data from Neilson and its competitors.

But the universities likely pay that (or at the very least the conference) and of course the media companies do. This is the GREAT unknown in all of this and why the speculation is a bit mastabatory - no one really knows the value of the most important cards in the game and so fans and others wildly discuss metrics that have no bearing on the actual VALUE of a possible expansion target.

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A few things to talk about in terms of viewership numbers:
*market size matters most (for immediate dollars) if there is expansion of the Big 10 Network (or ACC Network) into a market where they have no homes, or limited homes, and then, how much money are they getting per subscriber ("subs" as the TV lingo refers). This is a plus for Cal.
*The Bay Area is a big market as we know. So, even if Cal (or Furd) is watched by a lower percentage (that's what ratings are in reality) the actual net number might still be decent. This is more significant when the "home team" is winning. Cal/Furd needs a conference to bet on this a bit.
*What has changed: yeah, so the SEC schools are a lot of small markets. But, over the last, maybe 40 years, the national appeal has gone up dramatically. People in Portland and Seattle are turning on a game involving a highly ranked Georgia, Bama, LSU et. al. So, to your point: yep, what's happening in Portland when the Ducks are on is of interest, but what is significant for the conferences is broader appeal-how many people here in New Jersey will turn on Oregon because they have created a bigger brand in the last number of years. Cal gets killed in being judged along this metric. Sure, everything has potential to change (Oregon was crap when I was at Cal) but is a lot of this, "what have you done lately."
By the way: the Nielsen numbers are out there, like you said, for the right price. We might be playing checkers, or "being highly speculative", but the BIG, especially with Fox as a partner, can tell you how a certain Cal game played in a given market without too much stress; not positive that's true of the Pac-12 Network games.

DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

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Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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ESPN will still have the after dark slot with Arizona schools

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Also some MW games get into that slot IIRC. FS1 also slots games in at that hour.

eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

---

Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/business/media/espn-disney.html

Explains quite a bit about Disney's ESPN problems...

Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more.

ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

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They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

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If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

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They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

---

If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

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If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

philly1121 said:

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Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more. F

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For SDSU or any other MWC school to join us in fall 2024 would cost them $34 million in exit fees. That can theoretically be negotiated downward somewhat, but are any of them going to pay to join what's left of the Pac?

IMO, what would be more likely in this scenario is a merger with the MWC, which might mean keeping the Pac name and everyone in the MWC joining. Or, it might just be four schools joining the MWC.

Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

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Take a look at who you're not hearing from. (OK I'll tell you -- it's Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). No statements from any of them.

MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

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They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

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If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

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If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

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...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

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For the love of god you are a broken record. If you actually cared, you'd be taking your mouth (and your money) to where it mattered. I suggest you give that a try. Whining - over and over and over - on this board does absolutely nothing.

SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

---

They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

---

If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

---

If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

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...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

---

I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

maxer said:

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calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

---

Take a look at who you're not hearing from. (OK I'll tell you -- it's Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). No statements from any of them.

---

So the rumors we are hearing are baseless? Major negotiations have been going on between public entities for months with zero leaks? If so, great. The deal she negotiated with the B1G and Fox should be done and announced very soon.

Stanford and Cal will likely NOT be invited to join the BIG 10. I am told 20 teams is not something the BIG 10 is willing to do now. It's a very difficult situation for Stanford and Cal, as they don't have a natural destination if the PAC 12 collapses.

— YouTube: The Monty Show (@TheMontyShow) August 3, 2023

Who knows ... Hopefully in 24 hours we can put this all to rest.

BearSD said:

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philly1121 said:

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Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more. F

---

For SDSU or any other MWC school to join us in fall 2024 would cost them $34 million in exit fees. That can theoretically be negotiated downward somewhat, but are any of them going to pay to join what's left of the Pac?

IMO, what would be more likely in this scenario is a merger with the MWC, which might mean keeping the Pac name and everyone in the MWC joining. Or, it might just be four schools joining the MWC.

---

ACC and Pac-12 considering merging to create a bicoastal super-conference for compelling matchups and increased revenue

There is also this possibility, which I concede is highly unlikely. But the ACC is widely rumored to be the next conference to perhaps disintegrate. Possibly the remaining pieces of the PAC join forces with some of the pieces of the ACC. if you look at the academics, Duke, North Carolina, Cal, and Stanford are peers by any reasonable measure. Then Virginia and NC State balanced against Washington State and Oregon State. Maybe you invite in SMU or Rice to be a dance partner for Wake Forest. Initially the PAC teams would dominate in football while the ACC teams would dominate in hoops.

MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

---

They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

---

If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

---

If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

---

...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

---

I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

---

I think the B-12, if they eventually take California schools, might take FSU and SDSU. Right now that doesn't work because they are not P5 (interesting how Fox and ESPN basically put a bounty on hunting other P5 teams).

calumnus said:

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maxer said:

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calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

---

Take a look at who you're not hearing from. (OK I'll tell you -- it's Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). No statements from any of them.

---

So the rumors we are hearing are baseless? Major negotiations have been going on between public entities for months with zero leaks? If so, great. The deal she negotiated with the B1G and Fox should be done and announced very soon.

---

I don't know -- there's so much misinformation, and different sources with different agendas flying around, it's hard to tell. I'm just pointing out a fact.

MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

---

They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

---

If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

---

If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

---

...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

---

I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

---

You are likely right. I know the Big 12 has Cincinnati and West Virginia. Another northeastern team does make some sense, but it is not their base - to be sure. The only thing is that it does get the Big 12's foot in the New York area media door.

SoFlaBear said:

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BearSD said:

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philly1121 said:

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Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more. F

---

For SDSU or any other MWC school to join us in fall 2024 would cost them $34 million in exit fees. That can theoretically be negotiated downward somewhat, but are any of them going to pay to join what's left of the Pac?

IMO, what would be more likely in this scenario is a merger with the MWC, which might mean keeping the Pac name and everyone in the MWC joining. Or, it might just be four schools joining the MWC.

---

ACC and Pac-12 considering merging to create a bicoastal super-conference for compelling matchups and increased revenue

There is also this possibility, which I concede is highly unlikely. But the ACC is widely rumored to be the next conference to perhaps disintegrate. Possibly the remaining pieces of the PAC join forces with some of the pieces of the ACC. if you look at the academics, Duke, North Carolina, Cal, and Stanford are peers by any reasonable measure. Then Virginia and NC State balanced against Washington State and Oregon State. Maybe you invite in SMU or Rice to be a dance partner for Wake Forest. Initially the PAC teams would dominate in football while the ACC teams would dominate in hoops.

---

The Pac-12 is dead. I think the next major domino is the ACC, if it disintegrates, and which schools get incorporated into the B1G and SEC.

I could see the mid-level leftovers of the PAC and ACC banding together to be a fourth conference, which would be better financially than the WAC / AAC / MAC types, but not near the B1G and SEC.

calumnus said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

---

They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

---

If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

---

If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

---

...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

---

I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

---

I think the B-12, if they eventually take California schools, might take FSU and SDSU. Right now that doesn't work because they are not P5 (interesting how Fox and ESPN basically put a bounty on hunting other P5 teams).

---

FSU won't be available for the Big XII.

MTbear22 said:

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calumnus said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

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They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

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If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

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If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

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...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

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I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

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I think the B-12, if they eventually take California schools, might take FSU and SDSU. Right now that doesn't work because they are not P5 (interesting how Fox and ESPN basically put a bounty on hunting other P5 teams).

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FSU won't be available for the Big XII.

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In assuming Fresno State, not Flordia State.

One other possibility. Assuming the remaining four corners schools leave for B12 (Arizona, ASU, and Utah). The Pac-12 would likely need to invite 6 new G5 teams. Those could presumably come in at much lower revenue shares. I believe the MWC schools are currently getting $4 million a year. Something like $8 million each might be enough.

If the BIG10 is looking to add UW and Oregon, the PAC-12 could increase the shares to UW/UO to hopefully make it competitive (assuming the Apple offer still stands). Sounds like the BIG10 may not be able to offer UW and Oregon full shares and are currently determining what they can offer...

golden sloth said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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BearSD said:

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philly1121 said:

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Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more. F

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For SDSU or any other MWC school to join us in fall 2024 would cost them $34 million in exit fees. That can theoretically be negotiated downward somewhat, but are any of them going to pay to join what's left of the Pac?

IMO, what would be more likely in this scenario is a merger with the MWC, which might mean keeping the Pac name and everyone in the MWC joining. Or, it might just be four schools joining the MWC.

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ACC and Pac-12 considering merging to create a bicoastal super-conference for compelling matchups and increased revenue

There is also this possibility, which I concede is highly unlikely. But the ACC is widely rumored to be the next conference to perhaps disintegrate. Possibly the remaining pieces of the PAC join forces with some of the pieces of the ACC. if you look at the academics, Duke, North Carolina, Cal, and Stanford are peers by any reasonable measure. Then Virginia and NC State balanced against Washington State and Oregon State. Maybe you invite in SMU or Rice to be a dance partner for Wake Forest. Initially the PAC teams would dominate in football while the ACC teams would dominate in hoops.

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The Pac-12 is dead. I think the next major domino is the ACC, if it disintegrates, and which schools get incorporated into the B1G and SEC.

I could see the mid-level leftovers of the PAC and ACC banding together to be a fourth conference, which would be better financially than the WAC / AAC / MAC types, but not near the B1G and SEC.

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Agreed, and the weird thing is that after the frenetic pace of these events and the way I suspect this is turning out, I somewhat doubt that Cal and Stanford will be in a huge hurry to find a new home. The Mountain West will still be there and will gladly take them, but if might pay to wait a couple of months and see how the ACC situation plays out before deciding which island of misfit toys conference we want to be in.

I'll repeat - as bad as I feel for Cal, the situation is worse for the Beavs and the Cougs.

maxer said:

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calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

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Take a look at who you're not hearing from. (OK I'll tell you -- it's Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). No statements from any of them.

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There's literally a Washington board meeting tonight...

tpop88 said:

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If the BIG10 is looking to add UW and Oregon, the PAC-12 could increase the shares to UW/UO to hopefully make it competitive (assuming the Apple offer still stands). Sounds like the BIG10 may not be able to offer UW and Oregon full shares and are currently determining what they can offer...

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A half B1G share is $35 million, the current non-deal for the PAC-12 is in the low 20s, how obvious does this have to be for folks around here?

golden sloth said:

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MTbear22 said:

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calumnus said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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ferCALgm2 said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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And a deal is uncertain. There’s a political thicket with the potential additions because the moves don’t offer the current Big Ten schools any additional money. USC doesn’t have a vote, but they’ve been vocal in the past about not wanting other West Coast Big Ten teams.

— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023

U$C isn't our friend, they don't even want Oregon or Washington in

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They' definitely don't want Oregon. They would probably rather have Cal/Furd than OU/UW because of their distaste of OU.

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If you aren't taking Oregon, and you are only taking two teams, wouldn't it make sense to take Washington and whoever would take the lower payout between Cal and Stanford? That way you get the Sea/Tac and Bay Area markets and the least possible cost.

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If they were taking two without UO, it would be Stanford and UW. That combo has been floated multiple times by multiple people.

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...and then presumably Oregon would go to the Big 12. I suppose at that point there would be an outside shot they'd invite us, but I know they've been courting UConn.

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I think UConn is more of a bluff/ pressure on the PAC schools. Yormark has been playing business chess. But IF the Big XII landed UA, ASU, Utah, and Oregon, then I could see UConn having a real shot (I do not think adding UConn as #14 was ever truly in their plans; just a pressure tactic). We/ Cal are not a good "fit" for the Big XII, so I don't know if getting a slice of California would be worth it to them.

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I think the B-12, if they eventually take California schools, might take FSU and SDSU. Right now that doesn't work because they are not P5 (interesting how Fox and ESPN basically put a bounty on hunting other P5 teams).

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FSU won't be available for the Big XII.

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In assuming Fresno State, not Flordia State.

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Ah, ha, that didn't even cross my mind. I can't imagine the money will be there for that.

DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

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Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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ESPN will still have the after dark slot with Arizona schools

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And can get ad hoc MWC games for cheap.

Kliavkoff needs to quickly pursue the ACC merger path with ESPN to give them valuable product for late night and block Fox.

Unfortunately, ESPN by giving the B-12 a better offer and granting the B12 full shares for "any P5 teams" they poach (ie PAC-10 teams since the other P5 conferences were locked up) and Fox by refusing to deal, have every appearance of colluding to destroy the PAC-12, leaving Kliavkoff no options.

However,Kliavkoff may be able to use the above "appearance of collusion to destroy the Pac-12" to his advantage to negotiate a good deal from ESPN as part of a merger with the ACC. It is not like Disney is poor.

calumnus said:

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DoubtfulBear said:

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eastbayyoungbear said:

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BearSD said:

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Fox is in charge of the Big Ten's media deal. If there is any "new money" to pay for expansion, then it's either coming from Fox, or Fox is persuading one of the junior partners (likely NBC) to kick in more money. Fox wants to keep ESPN out.

IMO, the question that determines what Fox wants is: What happens if the Big Ten doesn't expand further at this time? And (IMO) the answer is: Oregon and Washington would join the Big 12. It's possible that Oregon and Washington already have Big 12 offers and are using them to try to persuade the Big Ten to act now before the Ducks and Huskies go to the Big 12.

So, Fox basically has to decide whether they want to let ESPN have access to UO and UW, via the Big 12, or whether they want to lock ESPN out of the west coast entirely. (ESPN doesn't even have any Mountain West rights; those are with Fox and CBS.) If it's the latter, Fox will find enough money to let the Big Ten presidents know that UO and UW are paid for, and that the presidents are on their own if they want to also add Cal and Stanford.

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Is ESPN too cash-strapped to even try to provide a competing offer to Apple? They have to realize that they are going to lose that late night slot entirely if the B1G expands.

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ESPN will still have the after dark slot with Arizona schools

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Kliavkoff needs to quickly pursue the ACC merger path with ESPN to give them valuable product for late night and block Fox.

However,Kliavkoff may be able to use the above "appearance of collusion to destroy the Pac-12" to his advantage to negotiate a good deal from ESPN as part of a merger with the ACC. It is not like Disney is poor.

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In 24 hours he will only have 4 schools left in his conference and then he will have nothing to negotiate with, good God I can't believe what people are thinking around here.

Also the Apple TV non-deal expires at the end of the week, then Apple could turn around to the B1G and offer their services for further expansion (meaning us and the Trees).

maxer said:

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calumnus said:

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Amazing Carol Christ "is doing more than any other PAC-10 CEO to get us in" without us hearing anything. Hopefully her super-secret mega deal is revealed soon.

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Take a look at who you're not hearing from. (OK I'll tell you -- it's Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon). No statements from any of them.

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Bht there are also no statements from Oregon State and Washington State. That just means those schools don't have an invite yet. But 2 may get one shortly. 4 feels less likely at this moment.

philly1121 said:

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Hmm. What this tells me is that the Arizona decision is done and all that matters is whether they take ASU and Utah with them. So, the B1G can take two teams (UO and UW) as opposed to 4. It can portray the B12 as scavengers in taking these three schools.

It also explains twitter reports that Utah is formulating a budget for rebranding from P12 to B12.

So.....where do we go from here? We backfill with SDSU, SMU, Tulane, UNLV, CSU and one more.

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So let me get this straight. We don't want to be associated with B12 schools because of reputation but this list of schools we are okay with?

Let's just stop the charade and close down football. In new pac-12 we would even have less institutional support and will just get embarrassed by these schools who have more institutional support and are hungry.

Strykur said:

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tpop88 said:

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If the BIG10 is looking to add UW and Oregon, the PAC-12 could increase the shares to UW/UO to hopefully make it competitive (assuming the Apple offer still stands). Sounds like the BIG10 may not be able to offer UW and Oregon full shares and are currently determining what they can offer...

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A half B1G share is $35 million, the current non-deal for the PAC-12 is in the low 20s, how obvious does this have to be for folks around here?

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Since I guess I have to provide examples:

$20*12=$240

$56*2 (OU/UW) + 20*4(CAL,Furd,OSU,WSU) + 8*6 (G5 teams) = $240

$56 Million + escalators from Pac-12 now look more favorable than $35 Million from BIG10. No?


Not saying this is going to happen. But, it's a possibility.