MTbear22 said:

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golden sloth said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Some random thoughts:

1) I read the Wetzel piece and about the four PAC teams being considered now would not get full shares like USC and UCLA did. My guess is that Phil Knight will say, "You were just kidding about that with Oregon, right?" i see Oregon demanding (and getting, btw) whatever UCLA and USC got. Otherwise, they'll enjoy moving on to the Big 12. Cal, Washington, and Stanford are another subject. I suspect Nike can, in turn, make deals with the existing B1G to make that worth their while.

2) What does anyone think happens to the Beavers and Cougs? Big 12? Mountain West? Any chance they also go to the B1G?

3) I'm doing math, which is always dangerous. Let's say the scenario Wetzel lays out comes to pass, and Washington, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford join UCLA and USC in '24. That is going to leave 20 teams. Seemingly not a problem until you consider that there are theoretically going to be 6 West Coast teams in that scenario. So they have to either do two 10 team divisions (seems unwieldy - but maybe) or four 5-team divisions with one "western team" joining a "midwestern" division, or unbalanced division counts.

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There won't be divisions. A few protected rivals and rotate the others.

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I think the ACC is also on the verge of collapse (I think smart people are working on how to get out of the Grant of Rights), and the best schools will be divided up by the SEC and B1G.

With regards to the B1G, they will fill out to 24 teams with 4 divisions. Thus, essentially develop an Atlantic Pod to combine with Penn St, Rutgers and maryland. Then there will be some discussion for where to divide the indiana, Illinois, michigan schools between the great lakes and the great plains schools.

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I almost added that to my post. But who knows. I do think USC will not want to be in a western pod. They want to play more eastern and big name brands, not make a halfway return to the PAC 8.

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SC's gonna hafta catch their breath more than once a year.

MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Some random thoughts:

1) I read the Wetzel piece and about the four PAC teams being considered now would not get full shares like USC and UCLA did. My guess is that Phil Knight will say, "You were just kidding about that with Oregon, right?" i see Oregon demanding (and getting, btw) whatever UCLA and USC got. Otherwise, they'll enjoy moving on to the Big 12. Cal, Washington, and Stanford are another subject. I suspect Nike can, in turn, make deals with the existing B1G to make that worth their while.

2) What does anyone think happens to the Beavers and Cougs? Big 12? Mountain West? Any chance they also go to the B1G?

3) I'm doing math, which is always dangerous. Let's say the scenario Wetzel lays out comes to pass, and Washington, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford join UCLA and USC in '24. That is going to leave 20 teams. Seemingly not a problem until you consider that there are theoretically going to be 6 West Coast teams in that scenario. So they have to either do two 10 team divisions (seems unwieldy - but maybe) or four 5-team divisions with one "western team" joining a "midwestern" division, or unbalanced division counts.

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There won't be divisions. A few protected rivals and rotate the others.

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I thought about that, but I note that there are divisions now.

But I could see that - everyone plays four teams in their region (however that is determined), four out of region, and three non-conference.

SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Some random thoughts:

1) I read the Wetzel piece and about the four PAC teams being considered now would not get full shares like USC and UCLA did. My guess is that Phil Knight will say, "You were just kidding about that with Oregon, right?" i see Oregon demanding (and getting, btw) whatever UCLA and USC got. Otherwise, they'll enjoy moving on to the Big 12. Cal, Washington, and Stanford are another subject. I suspect Nike can, in turn, make deals with the existing B1G to make that worth their while.

2) What does anyone think happens to the Beavers and Cougs? Big 12? Mountain West? Any chance they also go to the B1G?

3) I'm doing math, which is always dangerous. Let's say the scenario Wetzel lays out comes to pass, and Washington, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford join UCLA and USC in '24. That is going to leave 20 teams. Seemingly not a problem until you consider that there are theoretically going to be 6 West Coast teams in that scenario. So they have to either do two 10 team divisions (seems unwieldy - but maybe) or four 5-team divisions with one "western team" joining a "midwestern" division, or unbalanced division counts.

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There won't be divisions. A few protected rivals and rotate the others.

---

I thought about that, but I note that there are divisions now.

But I could see that - everyone plays four teams in their region (however that is determined), four out of region, and three non-conference.

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The B1G already announced no divisions once the LA schools join.

From Pat Forde pic.twitter.com/dmygtz52JY

— Rob Hwang (@rob11hwang) August 2, 2023

Back to doom

golden sloth said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Some random thoughts:

1) I read the Wetzel piece and about the four PAC teams being considered now would not get full shares like USC and UCLA did. My guess is that Phil Knight will say, "You were just kidding about that with Oregon, right?" i see Oregon demanding (and getting, btw) whatever UCLA and USC got. Otherwise, they'll enjoy moving on to the Big 12. Cal, Washington, and Stanford are another subject. I suspect Nike can, in turn, make deals with the existing B1G to make that worth their while.

2) What does anyone think happens to the Beavers and Cougs? Big 12? Mountain West? Any chance they also go to the B1G?

3) I'm doing math, which is always dangerous. Let's say the scenario Wetzel lays out comes to pass, and Washington, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford join UCLA and USC in '24. That is going to leave 20 teams. Seemingly not a problem until you consider that there are theoretically going to be 6 West Coast teams in that scenario. So they have to either do two 10 team divisions (seems unwieldy - but maybe) or four 5-team divisions with one "western team" joining a "midwestern" division, or unbalanced division counts.

---

There won't be divisions. A few protected rivals and rotate the others.

---

I think the ACC is also on the verge of collapse (I think smart people are working on how to get out of the Grant of Rights), and the best schools will be divided up by the SEC and B1G.

With regards to the B1G, they will fill out to 24 teams with 4 divisions. Thus, essentially develop an Atlantic Pod to combine with Penn St, Rutgers and maryland. Then there will be some discussion for where to divide the indiana, Illinois, michigan schools between the great lakes and the great plains schools.

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

Quote:

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Florida State President Richard McCullough told his board of trustees during a meeting Wednesday that the university would have to "very seriously" consider leaving the ACC unless there is a radical change to the conference's revenue distribution model.

McCullough addressed the board to give an update on where Florida State stands after a year spent exploring options about what the future holds in the wake of conference realignment and big money television contracts in the Big Ten and SEC. The moves are in line to put ACC schools $30 million behind per year from a TV revenue distribution standpoint.

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Quote:

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The ACC has a television contract with ESPN that runs through 2036. To get out of the league, Florida State would have to pay a $120 million exit fee and challenge the existing grant of rights, which gives the ACC media rights for its member schools.

In an interview with ESPN earlier Wednesday, Florida State athletic director Michael Alford said, "We have a great understanding of what opportunities there are in that document. How that document could hold us back, but also what the opportunities are. So this is going to be a discussion. We'll keep getting legal advice. Our legal team has a good understanding of that document."

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See also

Full Transcript: FSU president Richard McCullough seriously considering departure from the ACC

Econ141 said:

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From Pat Forde pic.twitter.com/dmygtz52JY

— Rob Hwang (@rob11hwang) August 2, 2023

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It's a leverage play to give lesser shares to us and the Trees, which is understandable.

More:

Big Ten examining potential additions of Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford to conference - https://t.co/Do0GY2YJms. It should be stressed Cal & Stanford not a priority right now. The great Dan Wetzel first with this. https://t.co/ozqxIc2SYq

— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) August 2, 2023

Strykur said:

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Econ141 said:

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From Pat Forde pic.twitter.com/dmygtz52JY

— Rob Hwang (@rob11hwang) August 2, 2023

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It's a leverage play to give lesser shares to us and the Trees, which is understandable.

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And/or trying to get us to the table.

How much might Cal & Stanford's global academic prowess help the cause with the B1G? I know the conference expansion model is about revenue / media / eyeballs, but adding Cal & Stanford would clearly establish the B1G as the "academic-minded" Super Conference. Cal, Michigan, Stanford, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Illinois, UCLA, and USC ** would give the B1G a cluster of some of the most well regarded academic institutions in the country. (**Including USC for argument's sake, even if we know the truth.)

I can't think of a better way to distinguish the B1G from the SEC than to double-down on the fact that the B1G would be the conference of academic stalwarts whereas the SEC would be the SEC.

SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

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Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

BearBoarBlarney said:

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How much might Cal & Stanford's global academic prowess help the cause with the B1G? I know the conference expansion model is about revenue / media / eyeballs, but adding Cal & Stanford would clearly establish the B1G as the "academic-minded" Super Conference. Cal, Michigan, Stanford, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Illinois, UCLA, and USC ** would give the B1G a cluster of some of the most well regarded academic institutions in the country. (**Including USC for argument's sake, even if we know the truth.)

I can't think of a better way to distinguish the B1G from the SEC than to double-down on the fact that the B1G would be the conference of academic stalwarts whereas the SEC would be the SEC.

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From an ESPN article - I think we are still on the outside looking in:

"Although there's some presidential interest in adding Cal and Stanford, those potential additions were met with chilly responses last year when the Big Ten pondered adding more teams, in part because of their lack of television resonance. Stanford's addition to the Big Ten has long been paired to a potential Notre Dame addition, which doesn't appear imminent at this point."

berserkeley said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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MTbear22 said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Some random thoughts:

1) I read the Wetzel piece and about the four PAC teams being considered now would not get full shares like USC and UCLA did. My guess is that Phil Knight will say, "You were just kidding about that with Oregon, right?" i see Oregon demanding (and getting, btw) whatever UCLA and USC got. Otherwise, they'll enjoy moving on to the Big 12. Cal, Washington, and Stanford are another subject. I suspect Nike can, in turn, make deals with the existing B1G to make that worth their while.

2) What does anyone think happens to the Beavers and Cougs? Big 12? Mountain West? Any chance they also go to the B1G?

3) I'm doing math, which is always dangerous. Let's say the scenario Wetzel lays out comes to pass, and Washington, Oregon, Cal, and Stanford join UCLA and USC in '24. That is going to leave 20 teams. Seemingly not a problem until you consider that there are theoretically going to be 6 West Coast teams in that scenario. So they have to either do two 10 team divisions (seems unwieldy - but maybe) or four 5-team divisions with one "western team" joining a "midwestern" division, or unbalanced division counts.

---

There won't be divisions. A few protected rivals and rotate the others.

---

I thought about that, but I note that there are divisions now.

But I could see that - everyone plays four teams in their region (however that is determined), four out of region, and three non-conference.

---

The B1G already announced no divisions once the LA schools join.

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They did. They also said they were stopping at 16 teams. Things are happening. FSU is making a lot of noise in the ACC. Realignment may be coming sooner rather than later.

BearSD said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

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Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

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There was a report earlier in the week (discussed here elsewhere) that there may be 8 teams in the ACC willing to dissolve the GOR/dissolve the ACC outright. The theory here is that the ACC is incorporated in North Carolina and a North Carolina corporation can be dissolved by a simple majority of the board. No corporation, then no GOR. In this scenario, Clemson and FSU go to the B1G, while Miami goes to the SEC. What happens to the rest of the ACC in this scenario is anyone's guess. For all I know, they become the eastern division of a theoretical conference in which Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State are the western division.

SoFlaBear said:

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BearSD said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

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Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

---

There was a report earlier in the week (discussed here elsewhere) that there may be 8 teams in the ACC willing to dissolve the GOR/dissolve the ACC outright. The theory here is that the ACC is incorporated in North Carolina and a North Carolina corporation can be dissolved by a simple majority of the board. No corporation, then no GOR. In this scenario, Clemson and FSU go to the B1G, while Miami goes to the SEC. What happens to the rest of the ACC in this scenario is anyone's guess. For all I know, they become the eastern division of a theoretical conference in which Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State are the western division.

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Wouldn't ESPN or FOX sue them? Doesn't seem like it could be that easy but who knows.

juarezbear said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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BearSD said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

---

Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

---

There was a report earlier in the week (discussed here elsewhere) that there may be 8 teams in the ACC willing to dissolve the GOR/dissolve the ACC outright. The theory here is that the ACC is incorporated in North Carolina and a North Carolina corporation can be dissolved by a simple majority of the board. No corporation, then no GOR. In this scenario, Clemson and FSU go to the B1G, while Miami goes to the SEC. What happens to the rest of the ACC in this scenario is anyone's guess. For all I know, they become the eastern division of a theoretical conference in which Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State are the western division.

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Wouldn't ESPN or FOX sue them? Doesn't seem like it could be that easy but who knows.

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They might. That's where attorneys will have to go over the media deal.

Maybe B1G kicks out Iowa, Illinois and Purdue for Cal and Stanford. Hey, if there is going to be realignment, then lets start from scratch!

SoFlaBear said:

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BearSD said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

---

Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

---

There was a report earlier in the week (discussed here elsewhere) that there may be 8 teams in the ACC willing to dissolve the GOR/dissolve the ACC outright. The theory here is that the ACC is incorporated in North Carolina and a North Carolina corporation can be dissolved by a simple majority of the board. No corporation, then no GOR. In this scenario, Clemson and FSU go to the B1G, while Miami goes to the SEC. What happens to the rest of the ACC in this scenario is anyone's guess. For all I know, they become the eastern division of a theoretical conference in which Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State are the western division.

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Doubt that could happen. In that scenario, 5 ACC schools would be voting to dissolve a conference that is much better than the one they would end up in.

At any rate, nothing like that will happen this month, whereas the dissolution of the Pac will almost certainly be confirmed before the end of this month.

I hope not, but it sure feels like CAL might be left out…

CaliforniaEternal said:

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A west coast pod would be good for SC/LA's logistics, but not necessarily for the other conference teams. If they add ORWA and Cal/furd, that would increase the number of west coast trips required by others. That's not necessarily appealing to all the members if it doesn't increase the distribution for everyone.

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'SC does not want other CA schools in the BiG, They prefer to keep control of the state recruiting and not share it.

ncbears said:

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Maybe B1G kicks out Iowa, Illinois and Purdue for Cal and Stanford. Hey, if there is going to be realignment, then lets start from scratch!

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The SEC kicks out Vanderbilt and Mississippi St. for Cal and Stanford.

the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

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Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

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Fox controls the money. Fox may say to the B1G presidents they will have to reduce their shares to add Cal and Stanford. The B1G presidents have a fiduciary responsibility so they will balk at that. That is why we also need to be lobbying Fox (and UCLA and USC) and be willing to play a lot of 3:30 pm and 6:30 pm games at Memorial. We also have to be prepared to accept a reduced share and have as many sports as possible compete in the Big West.

BigDaddy said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

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Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

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If Utah and AZ schools jump to the Big XII, the B1G only need to secure $130M to invite the 4 and the 4 would accept. On the spot. If the 4 don't accept, the B1G is off the hook.

AppleTV would make that deal.

BearSD said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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Funny you should mention the ACC.

ESPN

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Interesting, but there's not much chance that would affect Cal. The FSU administrators acknowledge that they'd have to fight to get out of the ACC. The Pac will have already dissolved before FSU resolves anything with the ACC.

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This is what so many internet yahoos don't understand.

berserkeley said:

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BigDaddy said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

---

Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

---

If Utah and AZ schools jump to the Big XII, the B1G only need to secure $130M to invite the 4 and the 4 would accept. On the spot. If the 4 don't accept, the B1G is off the hook.

AppleTV would make that deal.

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The real boost in value for the B1G and Fox is the ability to have B1G games in every TV time slot until midnight on the East Coast. UCLA and USC alone and one game each week in PST do not give you that without Midwest teams playing night games which is not fun in November. Four is stretching it, but every game would have to be late afternoon or night. Six is much better. Then the schools can each have 2 home conference games in each time slot.

The Arizona schools actually are a good addition to the B-12, with PST night games being preferable. Hawaii is an undervalued school for the same reason. They could own ESPN's late late slot, closing down the bars on the East Coast.

Another Arizona Board of Regents meeting scheduled for tomorrow, to discuss "legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics"

Arizona Board of Regents has announced a meeting Thursday night. Here is the agenda: pic.twitter.com/A98HFSIE3r

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 3, 2023

You're on to something here.

The academic side of some universities, including many at the University of Michigan, want Cal. The more athletic/money interests are less interested.

There is something called the CIC/BTAA, basically the BigTen schools plus the University of Chicago that cooperate on research, pool research, share research, and lobby governments for more research grants. Many academics want Cal in this as a full fledged member at the University of Michigan and in a few other BigTen schools.

PS I'm sincerely sorry about the situation your athletic department has been placed in.

OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Another Arizona Board of Regents meeting scheduled for tomorrow, to discuss "legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics"

Arizona Board of Regents has announced a meeting Thursday night. Here is the agenda: pic.twitter.com/A98HFSIE3r

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 3, 2023

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Note that both ASU and UA are mentioned there.

BTW, Utah's board has a regularly scheduled meeting set for next Tuesday.

BearSD said:

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OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Another Arizona Board of Regents meeting scheduled for tomorrow, to discuss "legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics"

Arizona Board of Regents has announced a meeting Thursday night. Here is the agenda: pic.twitter.com/A98HFSIE3r

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 3, 2023

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Note that both ASU and UA are mentioned there.

BTW, Utah's board has a regularly scheduled meeting set for next Tuesday.

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Yup. Things appear to be moving pretty fast since the Colorado domino fell.

BigDaddy said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

---

Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

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Right. And then Cal and 'Furd don't take full shares and everyone is happy and sing kumbaya.

Please?

ncbears said:

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Maybe B1G kicks out Iowa, Illinois and Purdue for Cal and Stanford. Hey, if there is going to be realignment, then lets start from scratch!

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Just fans, but a lot of BigTen fans want to kick out Rutgers, but supposedly the TV networks like the NYC market, but how many actually tune in to Rutgers?

No chance Illinois or Purdue gets the boot, they're important academic institutions for the CIC BTAA.

berserkeley said:

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BigDaddy said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

---

Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

---

If Utah and AZ schools jump to the Big XII, the B1G only need to secure $130M to invite the 4 and the 4 would accept. On the spot. If the 4 don't accept, the B1G is off the hook.

AppleTV would make that deal.

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UW and UO get 40 each and Cal/Stan get 25?

Econ141 said:

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berserkeley said:

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BigDaddy said:

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SadbutTrue999 said:

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the big 10 presidents know the value of stanford and cal. idiots on the internet do not.

i could definitely see the big 10 presidents telling the networks they can have UW and UO if they take Cal and Stanford too.

and frankly UO and UW don't have the markets everyone seems to think they do.

---

Right. And then FOX tells the B1G Presidents, "No problem, you can have Cal and Stanford too, but every program in the B1G is going to have to take less money to accomodate them entering the league", and then guess what happens?

---

If Utah and AZ schools jump to the Big XII, the B1G only need to secure $130M to invite the 4 and the 4 would accept. On the spot. If the 4 don't accept, the B1G is off the hook.

AppleTV would make that deal.

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UW and UO get 40 each and Cal/Stan get 25?

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More like 30 and 20.