Cal88;842851865 said:
You could perhaps try to show how my case didn't appear to you as cogent, as Berliner did above, instead of throwing passive aggressive character assassinations.
I think you are confused about what an ad hominem attack or a character assassination is. Or you're not confused but are accusing me of it anyway. I said that you have not made your case for very similar reasons that the climate scientists Muller criticized in their video had not made their case. Not because every fact they posted was false, though some were, but because of the false impression they attempted to create by fudging, or in your case, cherry-picking the data. I did not say you were stupid or evil.
Your case is not cogent because your original post on Muller completely left out the far more significant point - that Muller now, after the video, after having studied the matter at length, wrote "
I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause." As the main statement
[U]this article[/U], which I already posted, but you chose to ignore in your original post. As Oski003 pointed out - thee are caveats. Muller is a good scientist, so of course, what he means by that is that this is the best fit he sees, not that he claims to have proven causality or that the most alarmist theories are correct.
But the main thesis is right there - and to have left that out and just posted the older video where he finds the data-fudging by a few key climate scientists that caused him to no longer believe them is completely ironic, because it makes it so we have no reason to believe you.
Cal88;842851865 said:
IIRC your main criticism on my post about Muller is that I've called him a warmist.
Wrong. See above.
The main criticism is you cherry picked from a fairly early part of Muller's research arc into this and left out his conclusion that, again "
I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."
Cal88;842851865 said:
First of all, that aspect is somewhat peripheral to the video I've posted
Which is why it was also my peripheral point, not my main one.
Cal88;842851865 said:
, whose main point was that people at the very top of the climate establishment, like Phil Jones and Michael Mann, heads of the Climatic Research Unit and the Earth System Science Center respectively, were caught red-handed conspiring to alter climate data in order to further their alarmist case.
Muller had concluded in his presentation that their approach was an infringement on scientific ethics, and that he no longer trusted them or their work.
Just as you have cherry-picked in your original post to leave out the key point about Muller's lengthy research and subsequent conclusion after the video that "
I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."
Cal88;842851865 said:
That's the relevant part here, not Muller's "career arc". So who's cherry-picking here?!?
Pretty much you. See above.
Cal88;842851865 said:
FWIW, Muller declared all the way back in 2003 that he totally believed in human CO2 AGW, so his skepticism seems to have been limited to his opinion about the integrity of some of his warmist colleagues. I guess he's all made up now and joined the ranks, running a great family business with his daughter at BEST, with lots of foundation grant money pouring in.
He became a skeptic, rightly, when he discovered the fudged data. He then did a ton of research and pattern matching. Then he concluded
concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause." He didn't just "join the ranks." He did what a good scientist does and un-biasedly looked at the data. I trust him a hell of a lot more than I trust... well just about anyone.
Your last sarcastic sentence is pretty awesome, after saying others are assassinating your character, you then mention that Muller's got grant money coming in now. What's wrong with that? Hell his study itself during which he became convinced of climate change after first becoming a skeptic was
[U]funded by the Koch brothers[/U]. At the time, after the video you cited, it sure seemed like Muller and his research would validate the skeptic viewpoint. He didn't.
Cal88;842851865 said:
I've posted at least two global/northern hemisphere temperature graphs showing steep temp declines in 1948-78. As a matter of fact, nearly every major global and US temp chart from that period showed fairly steep cooling, at least those that weren't subsequently modified downward after the 90s to "hide the decline".
I've already addressed your three other accusations.
I, like you, am not a climate scientist. But after your above misrepresentation of Muller, I basically suspect you of cherry-picking or fudging data. I don't think you've addressed the issues with that, even though you say you have. See above. And others have also found issues with different data you have posted, causing you to just move on to other points. I was a Physics major, and having had Muller as a professor, I noticed your misrepresentation of his final conclusions by choosing that video only. And that's what I posted about.
I don't have the time an expertise to check every thing that you post. You take the high volume machine gun approach, which can be good, but loses its credibility once some of the flaws are exposed. Even what you just say in the quote above - why the hell are we talking 1948-1978? Why not the last 100 years? 150 years? Combined with your past cherry-picking of Muller's full timeline and other deceptive data you've posted, I see no reason to spend time thinking about further limited sets of data that you present, just like the climate scientists Muller criticized in his initial video you posted weren't worth his time.
And it makes your criticism of those climate scientists who have misrepresented data seem like projection on your part. An effort to create a false impression, just as some of them were in Muller's video. Perhaps I'm wrong about the content of your posts here. But it's hard to think so when you haven't even acknowledged the problems with how you've proceeded so far.
You're right about one thing, though - time is limited for us non-climate scientists to look at this who have day jobs and kids I've stayed up way too late posting this response. Have a good weekend.