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Hey great stuff once again, BD! :beer: Always look forward to your informed analysis & learning new things
So, some possible individual events for the dream team?
[COLOR="#cc3399"]
Abbey : [U]50 Free[/U] (
Day 1) ... [COLOR="#696969"][U]200 Free[/U] (
Day 2)?[/COLOR] ... [U]100 Free[/U] (
Day 3)
Amy : [U]50 Free[/U] (
Day 1) ... [U]100 Back[/U] (
Day 2) ... [U]100 Free[/U]
or [U]200 Back[/U]? (
Day 3)
Kathleen : [U]200 IM[/U] (
Day 1) ... [U]200 Free[/U]
or [U]100 Breast[/U]
or [U]100 Back[/U] (
Day 2) ... [U]200 Back[/U] (
Day 3)
Katie : [U]100 Fly[/U] & [U]200 Free[/U] (
Day 2) ... [U]200 Fly[/U] (
Day 3)[/COLOR]
Question for the experts: can one compete in all 5 relays if entered for only 2 individuals @ NCAAs?
btw BD, your ruminations on the team's weaknesses, and how our 2015 recruits may or may not address some of these issues, inspired me to look up a few stats in order to try to get a more visual picture of where we may stand next season.
Basically took the best SCY times for the new recruits + 2014 freshies + rest of team who will be there March 2016, then compared these with the 2014 NCAAs results, in order to get a sense of who could have scored last spring. Did then remove data for who had scored for Cal, how many points & in which events, who will have graduated, cutoff times to qualify for A/B finals from prelims etc. to help streamline the table below.
Obviously this simplistic, ad hoc exercise of mine comes with more than a few major caveats! This is NOT intended to attempt to seriously predict who will actually score @ 2016 NCAAs, as too many variable factors will come into play in the next 16 months or so.
Unlike BD, I had not looked at our rivals' recruits nor plotted their progress - this alone would significantly impact the distribution of points. Swimming is generally getting faster with each generation, so it will undoubtedly be tougher to score at the next edition of NCs, with a new generation of superstuds about to burst onto the scene to challenge the status quo and our expectations. The ability to swim fast in the morning heats is key at NCAAs, as you can still score even if slower in the evening - as long as you have a place in finals!
Then there's the sobering fact that many swimmers find it challenging to surpass their HS swims once they hit college. And while in college, many will end up achieving their best times for the season at other than the big meet due to a missed taper or something else. As alas happened to quite a few of the team last NCAAs.
On the other side of the coin, our incoming recruits have yet to get another taper meet under their belts before coming on campus, so we may not yet have seen their best pre-college times until their major HS/State meets in the spring.
Abbey, Kathleen, Amy & Katie have all recently had a chance to represent the country in the summer at either the senior or junior level, so they should be brimming with increasing confidence, which could translate into performance improvements in the coming months. We definitely haven't seen
Amy at her max potential, especially if she continues to add to her towering 6' 3" frame hehe
Well I'm rambling on, so let's get to the stats FWIW
Those who are potential
A final scorers at the last NCAAs, based on their PBs (i.e. faster than the 8th placed finalist), are [COLOR="#800080"]
highlighted in bold purple[/COLOR].
B final potential scorers (better than the 16th finalist) are [COLOR="#800080"]in light purple[/COLOR].
For our current juniors, I only considered their best times achieved whilst at Cal (
Boots, Liz & Celina had gone faster in certain events pre-college), and if their times had increased from their freshman to sophomore year, this would be denoted by (frosh time/soph time)...but I gave them the benefit of the doubt by considering only their faster time for placing their scoring potential position.
Noemie had only started swimming SCY since starting here, since Canada like the rest of the world other than the US holds LCM & SCM meets (meters instead of yards). Didn't feel motivated enough to search for her best SCM times and convert to SCY, so obviously she should be much, much higher...in the 100 fly for example.
Cierra hadn't raced a heck of a lot of yards either when at NBAC...
Sorry, didn't look at relays or the diving. Please let me know of any bad data so that I can update, thanks!
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[COLOR="#006699"]
[SIZE=4]2014 NCAA Women's Division 1 Championships (3/20/2014 - 3/22/2014)[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#A52A2A"][SIZE=3]* [U]
DAY 1[/U] *[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]500 Free[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 4:37.80
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 4:42.56 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"]
[U]Cierra[/U] (4:37.14)[/COLOR], [U]Liz[/U] (4:42.87), [U]Abbey[/U] (4:49.33), [U]Jenna[/U] (4:49.73), [U]Katie[/U] (4:51.34), [U]Celina[/U] (4:51.50)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]200 IM[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 1:56.88
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 1:57.86 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Liz[/U] (1:53.39/1:54.15), [U]Celina[/U] (1:53.85), [U]Kathleen[/U] (1:54.50) , [U]Boots[/U] (1:57.01/2:00.31), [U]Kelly[/U] (1:57.52)[/COLOR], [U]Cierra[/U] (1:57.96)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]50 Free[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 22.01
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 22.53[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Abbey[/U] (21.98), [U]Farida[/U] (22.11), [U]Amy[/U] (22.15)[/COLOR], [U]Boots[/U] (22.59/22.72), [U]Kathleen[/U] (22.63), [U]Liz[/U] (22.64), [U]Rachael[/U] (22.66), [U]Katie[/U] (22.70), [U]Jasmine[/U] (22.70), [U]Cierra[/U] (22.97), [U]Jenna[/U] (23.44), [U]Catherine[/U] (23.52)
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[COLOR="#A52A2A"][SIZE=3]* [U]
DAY 2[/U] *[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]400 IM[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 4:08.02
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 4:11.68 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Celina[/U] (4:06.54), [U]Liz[/U] (4:09.89/4:10.83), [U]Kelly[/U] (4:10.10/4:11.61), [U]Kathleen[/U] (4:11.38)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]100 Fly[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 52.25
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 53.08 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Boots[/U] (51.68/52.06), [U]Farida[/U] (51.78), [U]Katie[/U] (51.78), [U]Jasmine[/U] (52.23), [U]Liz[/U] (52.64), [U]Kathleen[/U] (52.68)[/COLOR], [U]Noemie[/U] (53.59), [U]Amy[/U] (54.33), [U]Abbey[/U] (55.23), [U]Cierra[/U] (55.30), [U]Jenna[/U] (55.42)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]200 Free[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 1:44.76
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 1:46.03 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Liz[/U] (1:42.13/1:44.59), [U]Kathleen[/U] (1:43.61), [U]Rachael[/U] (1:44.33/1:44.43), [U]Katie[/U] (1:44.66), [U]Abbey[/U] (1:45.49), [U]Cierra[/U] (1:45.52)[/COLOR], [U]Celina[/U] (1:46.27), [U]Jenna[/U] (1:46.35), [U]Jasmine[/U] (1:47.09), [U]Kelly[/U] (1:47.21), [U]Amy[/U] (1:47.44), [U]Catherine[/U] (1:47.88)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]100 Breast[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 1:00.44
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 1:00.49 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Kathleen[/U] (59.37)[/COLOR], [U]Marina[/U] (1:01.27), [U]Maija[/U] (1:01.45), [U]Celina[/U] (1:03.70)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]100 Back[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 51.84
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 52.90 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Boots[/U] (50.13/51.19), [U]Liz[/U] (51.26/51.27), [U]Kathleen[/U] (51.51), [U]Amy[/U] (52.58)[/COLOR], [U]Jasmine[/U] (53.54), [U]Abbey[/U] (54.63)
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[COLOR="#A52A2A"][SIZE=3]* [U]
DAY 3[/U] *[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]1650 Free[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
Timed finals [U]# 8[/U] - 15:58.46 | [U]#16[/U] - 16:09.00 [/COLOR]
[U]Cierra[/U] (16:40.89), [U]Jenna[/U] (17:43.82)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]200 Back[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 1:54.78
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 1:56.32 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Liz[/U] (1:47.84/1:49.59), [U]Kelly[/U] (1:54.29), [U]Kathleen[/U] (1:54.30), [U]Cierra[/U] (1:54.55)[/COLOR], [U]Amy[/U] (1:56.33)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]100 Free[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 48.06
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 48.52 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Abbey[/U] (47.59), [U]Liz[/U] (47.78/48.71), [U]Rachael[/U] (48.05), [U]Kathleen[/U] (48.20), [U]Farida[/U] (48.38)[/COLOR], [U]Jasmine[/U] (48.67), [U]Amy[/U] (48.93), [U]Cierra[/U] (49.24), [U]Katie[/U] (49.52), [U]Catherine[/U] (49.55), [U]Jenna[/U] (50.57)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]200 Breast[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 2:07.98
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 2:11.68 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Celina[/U] (2:10.83), [U]Marina[/U] (2:10.98), [U]Kathleen[/U] (2:11.17)[/COLOR], [U]Maija[/U] (2:12.00)
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
[SIZE=3]200 Fly[/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#006400"]
A finals [U]# 8[/U] - 1:55.85
B finals [U]#16[/U] - 1:58.42 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#800080"][U]Katie[/U] (1:54.48), [U]Boots[/U] (1:54.92/1:55.37), [U]Jasmine[/U] (1:56.60), [U]Celina[/U] (1:57.37)[/COLOR], [U]Jenna[/U] (1:59.02), [U]Noemie[/U] (2:00.00), [U]Liz[/U] (2:00.69)
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