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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 1:27p, 2/22/22
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
The U.S. Treasury 10-2 spread took another big dump today dropping down to .39. The Treasury market is telling us that going forward, inflation is not the problem - slow growth is.

You dont think that there might be a flight to quality occurring that is flattening the curve given that Russia just invaded Ukraine?


Well the 10-2 spread has halved in the last month but if you want to attribute the move today solely to Ukraine, then ok. Just remember that a flight to quality from war in Ukraine is also a slow growth argument.

That's not what I said and you know it.
I wasnt talking about the last month.
Duh.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 1:36p, 2/22/22
dajo9 said:

Cramer's rant was in August 2007. Bush bailed out the banks in 2008. We're talking about the market bottom in March 2009. I'm sorry you and Cramer feel like Obama was being mean to the banks.

Spoken like the true socialist that you are.
You're going to be a total wreck after midterms.
Who will you blame then?




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DiabloWags
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5:40p, 2/24/22

In other news, this thread is buried on Page #2 when the NASDAQ went from - 450 on the opening to close + 436

Apparently, none of the Cal alums that post here have money in the equity market.
Otherwise, this thread might get some love.

Sad really.


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bearister
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In reply to DiabloWags • 5:51p, 2/24/22
DiabloWags said:

In other news, this thread is buried on Page #2 when the NASDAQ went from - 450 on the opening to close + 436

Apparently, none of the Cal alums that post here have money in the equity market.
Otherwise, this thread might get some love.

Sad really.



What is the name of the charm school you attended?

Did you ever stop to reflect that this:


…made talking about a portfolio going up in value perhaps a little inappropriate?

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
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oski003
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7:21a, 2/28/22
Crypto is rolling today. Is there a relationship between crypto and SWIFT/sanctions?
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concordtom
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In reply to oski003 • 8:27a, 2/28/22
oski003 said:
Crypto is rolling today. Is there a relationship between crypto and SWIFT/sanctions?
Just wait until the West Alliance governments outlaw Crypto as legal transactional tender in response to it being a way for Russia to evade financial sanctions.

You think it wouldn't happen???
Central Governments should just be looking for any such excuse. "Crypto is terrorism".
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concordtom
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In reply to bearister • 8:28a, 2/28/22
bearister said:
DiabloWags said:

In other news, this thread is buried on Page #2 when the NASDAQ went from - 450 on the opening to close + 436

Apparently, none of the Cal alums that post here have money in the equity market.
Otherwise, this thread might get some love.

Sad really.



What is the name of the charm school you attended?

Did you ever stop to reflect that this:


…made talking about a portfolio going up in value perhaps a little inappropriate?

That photo should be the cover of Time or Newsweek.
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dajo9
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6:24a, 3/4/22
They say the stock market is forward looking but I disagree with that. The stock market is a bunch of drunks moving en masse with the crowd. The stock market likes to party but hangovers can be severe.

The bond market is actually sober and forward looking. The U.S. Treasury 10-2 spread is now down to 26 basis points. Going negative is an indicator of economic slowdown (recession). A year ago this spread was 140 basis points. 6 months ago this spread was 116 basis points. 2 months ago it was 89 basis points.

This collapse of the spread predates the hot war in Ukraine. It is all about the Fed. The bond market believes the Fed will drive us into recession. Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.
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DiabloWags
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12:09p, 3/4/22
Some pretty insane volatility.

Crude Oil for the April futures contract trades over $115.
It was trading $95 on Monday of this week.
Highest in 10 years.

And we have another Friday where there clearly is a flight to safety in the 10 year, sending the yield down to 1.72% from yesterday's 1.84% - - - The closely watched 2/10 year yield spread is down to 24 basis points.

S&P off 1.2%
Naz off 2.00%

As we head into the final hour of trading on much lower volume than normal.


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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 11:38a, 3/6/22
dajo9 said:


Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.


So now all of a sudden you're concerned with inflation? Or are you concerned about too many rate hikes by the Fed. Which one is it?

You sound terribly confused.
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 12:38p, 3/6/22
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:


Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.


So now all of a sudden you're concerned with inflation? Or are you concerned about too many rate hikes by the Fed. Which one is it?

You sound terribly confused.


You wish.

I have consistently said the Fed should take gradual, moderate steps to bring down inflation.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 2:02p, 3/6/22
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:


Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.


So now all of a sudden you're concerned with inflation? Or are you concerned about too many rate hikes by the Fed. Which one is it?

You sound terribly confused.


You wish.

I have consistently said the Fed should take gradual, moderate steps to bring down inflation.

Then please EXPLAIN to me how Republicans "blocking" Biden's nominations to the Federal Reserve will impact inflation.
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DiabloWags
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3:38p, 3/6/22

April Crude Oil Futures up +$10.00 to $125.75

S&P Futures: -48.50



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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 4:25p, 3/6/22
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:


Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.


So now all of a sudden you're concerned with inflation? Or are you concerned about too many rate hikes by the Fed. Which one is it?

You sound terribly confused.


You wish.

I have consistently said the Fed should take gradual, moderate steps to bring down inflation.

Then please EXPLAIN to me how Republicans "blocking" Biden's nominations to the Federal Reserve will impact inflation.


Biden appointees are likely to be appropriately less hawkish. Plus general dysfunction from understaffing.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:10p, 3/6/22
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:


Republicans are blocking 5 Biden nominations to the Federal Reserve. Republicans want the Federal Reserve and / or inflation to destroy the economy because a Democrat is President.


So now all of a sudden you're concerned with inflation? Or are you concerned about too many rate hikes by the Fed. Which one is it?

You sound terribly confused.


You wish.

I have consistently said the Fed should take gradual, moderate steps to bring down inflation.

Then please EXPLAIN to me how Republicans "blocking" Biden's nominations to the Federal Reserve will impact inflation.


Biden appointees are likely to be appropriately less hawkish. Plus general dysfunction from understaffing.


Nonsense.
You live in a fantasy world.

Biden is already on record stating that he endorses Chairman Powell's committment to fighting inflation.

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oski003
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12:09p, 3/9/22
Any thoughts on what will happen to Nickel when it resumes trading on Friday?

Also, wheat and oil came down to earth a little today. Is this because of alternative suppliers or thoughts that peace might be brokered?
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DiabloWags
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12:44p, 3/9/22
Xiang "Big Shot" Guangda is reportedly taking an $8 BILLION DOLLAR loss from shorting nickel.

Prices should decline fairly dramatically given that the biggest short (s) has been carted off the field.

The global hub for metal markets has halted nickel trading until March 11 after prices topped $100,000 per ton (yahoo.com)



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DiabloWags
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6:27a, 3/10/22
Dow Futures down over 400 points

S&P futures - 52

CPI for February rises 7.9% year over year.

Fastest annual jump since 1982.
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concordtom
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8:32a, 3/10/22
Take a look at the chart of US oil production on this page.
Can anyone tell me why it took a massive dive in early 2020?
What was happening then? Democrats were very much still jockeying on who might challenge Trump. That's all I got.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-u-oil-production-isnt-144841284.html
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smh
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In reply to concordtom • 8:34a, 3/10/22
> Take a look at the chart of US oil production on this page.
> Can anyone tell me why it took a massive dive in early 2020?

um, covid?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to smh • 2:06p, 3/10/22
smh said:
> Take a look at the chart of US oil production on this page.
> Can anyone tell me why it took a massive dive in early 2020?

um, covid?
DING!
DING!
DING!
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concordtom
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In reply to smh • 8:00a, 3/11/22
smh said:
> Take a look at the chart of US oil production on this page.
> Can anyone tell me why it took a massive dive in early 2020?

um, covid?

Lol
Ha! Oh yeah!!!!
Thx
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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:21a, 3/11/22
DiabloWags said:
Xiang "Big Shot" Guangda is reportedly taking an $8 BILLION DOLLAR loss from shorting nickel.

Prices should decline fairly dramatically given that the biggest short (s) has been carted off the field.

The global hub for metal markets has halted nickel trading until March 11 after prices topped $100,000 per ton (yahoo.com)





Trading still has not resumed for nickel. Lots of volatility with precious metals and other commodities.
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DiabloWags
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8:31a, 3/11/22
From what I read yesterday, "Big Shot" doesnt want to cover his short positions.

By voiding transactions on Tuesday and suspending trading, I know that there are an awful lot of pissed of traders who dont like the fact that the LME effectively bailed out the shorts (bearish position holders) at the expense of their bullish counterparts on the other side of the trade.

It caused havoc for traders who had been active in the small hours of Tuesday morning. Some sold long positions at a profit, only to have the sale canceled; some placed relative value bets on nickel versus other metals, only to have the nickel part of the trade canceled; and some banks used the exchange to hedge positions with their clients, only to have the hedges torn up.

When an Exchange is open and you have bona fide users agreeing to bona fide contracts, you should be able to rely on them. It's the whole purpose of a regulated Exchange.

Voiding trades is a big NO NO.

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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 9:24a, 3/11/22
How on earth can an exchange cancel transactions?
The only time I recall that happening was when there was a technical glitch. But I cannot recall the instance. What happened with nickel?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to oski003 • 11:42a, 3/12/22
oski003 said:


Trading still has not resumed for nickel. Lots of volatility with precious metals and other commodities.


In the Shanghai Market, nickel was falling the max limit of 17% for the second day in a row as of last Thursday.

The LME cancelled 9,000 trades on Tuesday worth $4 Billion. The LME was clearly worried about several brokers who service Tsingshan, ( the world's largest nickel producer )....from going belly-up.

Tsingshan said on Wednesday that they had secured enough of the metal to "settle" all of their losing short positions.

This suspension in trading is literally unheard of, because the LME winds up protecting the Brokers who had guaranteed their customer's trades (Tsingshan Holdings) at the expense of the counter-parties and their capital who were prevented from taking sizeable profits, due to the trading halt.

It doesnt matter that Tsingshan is a producer of the physical metal.... or their "hedging" became more of a speculative endeavor.

Suspending trading on a regulated Exchange is a big NO NO.


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DiabloWags
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7:20a, 3/14/22
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 9:33a, 3/15/22
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.
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concordtom
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9:35a, 3/15/22
By the way, I love that you are capital markets focused while excoriating Trump and the insanely hypocritical republicans. Too often, it seems that financial guys cannot criticize the gop. Sad.
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oski003
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9:39a, 3/15/22
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3170570/lme-resume-nickel-trading-after-chinese-short-seller
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 10:04a, 3/15/22
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.

1.) Our "circuit breakers" in the equity markets are so wide they are a joke. (7%, 13%, and 20%).


2.) Commodity futures markets already have daily "limits".





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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to concordtom • 10:19a, 3/15/22
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.
Right! They didn't cancel the trading when the Duke brothers failed to corner the frozen orange juice market and went insolvent.
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 11:07a, 3/15/22
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.
Right! They didn't cancel the trading when the Duke brothers failed to corner the frozen orange juice market and went insolvent.
Just wanted to thank you for this reference. Brightened my morning. What a great movie.

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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 11:19a, 3/15/22
Unit2Sucks said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.
Right! They didn't cancel the trading when the Duke brothers failed to corner the frozen orange juice market and went insolvent.
Just wanted to thank you for this reference. Brightened my morning. What a great movie.

You're welcome. I just saw the Duke brothers cameo (homeless and in rags) in Coming To America and was reminded to mention them here.
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:06p, 3/15/22
DiabloWags said:
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
18 Minutes that Broke the Nickel Market

Inside Nickel's Short Squeeze: How Price Surges Halted LME Trading - Bloomberg

An excellent read!


Thx. On the list.

Suspending trading is one thing. We have installed circuit breakers here for a reason. Emotion.

But canceling trades is another animal.

1.) Our "circuit breakers" in the equity markets are so wide they are a joke. (7%, 13%, and 20%).


2.) Commodity futures markets already have daily "limits".
I don't have a problem with it! Not at all.
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