Stock Market

82,159 Views | 833 Replies | Last: 20 days ago by DiabloWags
DiabloWags
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According to Bank of America's fund manager survey, funds are holding 5.9% of their portfolios in cash, the highest level since April 2020 when the pandemic was setting in. Hedge funds have sold stocks in droves, as the average fund's long exposureor bets that stocks will riseas a percentage of total portfolios is also the lowest since April 2020.
DiabloWags
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The stock market seems to be absorbing the first (of many) rate increases by the FED.

Tremendous intra-day move since 2:30 PM Eastern after Chairman Powell concluded his press conference.

wifeisafurd
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interesting to see the stock market rise with the announcement of a FED interest rate hike.
DiabloWags
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wifeisafurd said:

interesting to see the stock market rise with the announcement of a FED interest rate hike.
It's to be expected.
Because the market is a discounting machine.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury Bond has already priced in 7 quarter point rate hikes by the FED.

United States 2-Year Bond Yield - Investing.com

Market sentiment is at the worst level in 2 years.
And the Nasdaq is down by 20%.

Perfect ingredients for a big rally!

S&P was up 89 points yesterday.
S&P was up 95 points today.
DiabloWags
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The yield on the 10 year Treasury continues to make new highs for the move.
+7.77% today up to a whopping 2.315%

Just two weeks ago, the yield was at 1.734%

That's a massive move in yields!


DiabloWags
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No interest in March Madness and no interest in the Stock Market here in OT Land.
Hmmmmmm....
Eastern Oregon Bear
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DiabloWags said:

No interest in March Madness and no interest in the Stock Market here in OT Land.
Hmmmmmm....

I'm somewhat interested in both. I just don't have anything meaningful to contribute. "A man's got to know his limitations."
oski003
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Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.
It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to keep helltwoply in his place. As for the stock market, I gave up on it following logic and rational thinking many years ago. It follows it's own internal drummer.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

That's BS and you know it.

As I recall, you were the only one showing any interest in the stock market (other than myself) given your position in Polestar at $11.50.

The second post on your thread was by a Trumper named Minot State Beav who showed that he had zero understanding of how the market's work when he called PELOTON "shady" because the CEO had sold 16% of his stock.

Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention.

This thread is typical of 90% of all the other threads in OT Land.
Filled with noobs or people suffering from low IQ.

It's pretty clear that no one here in OT Land gives a crap about the financial markets.

Probably because they arent invested in them, or if they are, their risk is minimal and they say stupid things like,
"I dont care if the market drops 50% from here" - - - (Dimitrig)

oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

That's BS and you know it.

As I recall, you were the only one showing any interest in the stock market (other than myself) given your position in Polestar at $11.50.

The second post on your thread was by a Trumper named Minot State Beav who showed that he had zero understanding of how the market's work when he called PELOTON "shady" because the CEO had sold 16% of his stock.

Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention.

It's pretty clear that no one here in OT Land gives a crap about the financial markets.
Probably because they arent invested in them, or if they are, their risk is minimal and they say stupid things like, "I dont care if the market drops 50% from here" - - - (Dimitrig)


I think people here care about the market; however, people are incredibly passionate and polar on politics and such dominates most threads.

As for me, I rolled my 401K into a earlier retirement target account because I believe the early dates are less risk adverse. I am also increasing my contributions gradually until I max out. Our joint other retirement account has Polestar and some ARKK. I am gradually buying SQQQ in a short term account because I think we are in a Bear Market. I do have a small amount of ethereum that accrues interest.
Unit2Sucks
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

That's BS and you know it.

As I recall, you were the only one showing any interest in the stock market (other than myself) given your position in Polestar at $11.50.

The second post on your thread was by a Trumper named Minot State Beav who showed that he had zero understanding of how the market's work when he called PELOTON "shady" because the CEO had sold 16% of his stock.

Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention.

It's pretty clear that no one here in OT Land gives a crap about the financial markets.
Probably because they arent invested in them, or if they are, their risk is minimal and they say stupid things like, "I dont care if the market drops 50% from here" - - - (Dimitrig)


I think people here care about the market; however, people are incredibly passionate and polar on politics and such dominates most threads.


I would agree with this. I "care" about the market but I don't actively trade and am more of a buy and hold. I don't find it super productive to follow the daily ups and downs since there is nothing for me to action. I think the day to day reactionary activity of the market is less interesting and full of noise.

I do follow the larger trends and find them interesting. I have money at risk in the market but wouldn't personally be too impacted if the market dropped 50% since I'm not retiring any time soon and have cash to deploy. The repercussions of and cause of a 50% drop would probably be a bigger deal than the market crash itself.

Diablo - I find your attack of people who don't care about the market to be a bit odd. Why does it bother you? I know some very smart people with lots of money at stake who don't worry about the short term trends.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:


I think people here care about the market; however, people are incredibly passionate and polar on politics and such dominates most threads.

As for me, I rolled my 401K into a earlier retirement target account because I believe the early dates are less risk adverse. I am also increasing my contributions gradually until I max out. Our joint other retirement account has Polestar and some ARKK. I am gradually buying SQQQ in a short term account because I think we are in a Bear Market. I do have a small amount of ethereum.

I really havent seen the interest here.
And I must admit, it really surprised me.

As for Cathie Wood and ARK, her portfolio management has literally been insane.

Surprisingly, she hasnt suffered much in the way of redemptions even though she's totally miscalculated the rotation out of growth names and into value stocks given the rise in inflation; which was another miscalcuation on her part. She's clearly become defensive, given that her daily trade blotter has totally dried up. She's so far underwater that she's literally down to just 3 or 4 transactions a day. Obviously trying to preserve cash.

Quite honestly, I've had a number of people contact me over the years attracted to wanting to make BIG MONEY in the markets and they've asked me to help them. I've come to the conclusion that they dont realize how time consuming it is, nor are they able to develop their own trading methodology that suits their strengths and interests. And at the end of the day, the market simply moves far too fast for them to be able to react to. They're always 2 or 3 steps behind.



DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:



Diablo - I find your attack of people who don't care about the market to be a bit odd. Why does it bother you? I know some very smart people with lots of money at stake who don't worry about the short term trends.
I'm not the one that called out someone for suffering from HTP Derangement Syndrome as the cause for this thread being relegated to Page 2. - - - That came from your 67 Page Covid Thread arguing partner, Oski003.

Short-Term trends have nothing to do with my interest in this thread, given the critical juncture that the markets find themselves in. It's not every day that you have a complete 180 degree change in Fed Monetary Policy. As noted in some of my previous posts in this thread, this is a fascinating juncture for the markets.

As for this thread in general (and others) that have anything to do with money, I guess you havent noticed the lack of financial literacy and how threads similar to this invariably turn into the typical Wealth Gap pissing contest from the likes of Going4Roses, Cal Poly, Dajo, and others.

Unit2Sucks
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DiabloWags said:

Unit2Sucks said:



Diablo - I find your attack of people who don't care about the market to be a bit odd. Why does it bother you? I know some very smart people with lots of money at stake who don't worry about the short term trends.
I'm not the one that called out someone for suffering from HTP Derangement Syndrome as the cause for this thread being relegated to Page 2. - - - That came from your 67 Page Covid Thread arguing partner, Oski003.

Short-Term trends have nothing to do with my interest in this thread, given the critical juncture that the markets find themselves in. It's not every day that you have a complete 180 degree change in Fed Monetary Policy. As noted in some of my previous posts in this thread, this is a fascinating juncture for the markets.

As for this thread in general (and others) that have anything to do with money, I guess you havent noticed the lack of financial literacy and how threads similar to this invariably turn into the typical Wealth Gap pissing contest from the likes of Going4Roses, Cal Poly, Dajo, and others.




Sure that's fair. Anecdotally, in my experience most young people who complain about drops in the market probably have the wrong asset allocation. If equity volatility bothers people, they should probably have a larger fixed income position.


As for Cathie Wood, I'm not sure why she would rethink her strategy. She's running sector specific funds. If she rotated ARKK into value plays, it wouldn't be the same fund and she would suffer redemptions. I'm not buying ARKK right now but I may consider it at some point. I have other places to go for value investing.
DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:




As for Cathie Wood, I'm not sure why she would rethink her strategy. She's running sector specific funds. If she rotated ARKK into value plays, it wouldn't be the same fund and she would suffer redemptions. I'm not buying ARKK right now but I may consider it at some point. I have other places to go for value investing.

You're misunderstanding what I am saying regarding her horrible portfolio management.

I am very well aware of ARKK and ARKG being sector specific growth funds.
In fact, my biggest position is her #1 position in ARKG and #8 in ARKK.

My issue with her is how she bought just about every name in her portfolio ALL THE WAY down late last year.

Didnt matter if the companies were guiding lower for Q4 when they announced Q3 earnings in early November. Didnt matter that the charts of these companies were breaking down or already broken. Didnt matter that the FED was already hinting at reversing their loose monetary policy, which is a death-knell for growth companies.

Every single day she would buy 500,000 to 800,000 shares of HOOD or NVTA.
All the way down from $30 to $10.

She literally did this with every stock in ARKG and many in ARKK.
As if we were still in a Bull Market.

The only time that I've ever seen her admit that she's made a mistake was in Zillow (ZG) and Palantir (PLTR); the latter which she eventually fully puked 30 million shares in one month.





dimitrig
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

That's BS and you know it.

As I recall, you were the only one showing any interest in the stock market (other than myself) given your position in Polestar at $11.50.

The second post on your thread was by a Trumper named Minot State Beav who showed that he had zero understanding of how the market's work when he called PELOTON "shady" because the CEO had sold 16% of his stock.

Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention.

This thread is typical of 90% of all the other threads in OT Land.
Filled with noobs or people suffering from low IQ.

It's pretty clear that no one here in OT Land gives a crap about the financial markets.

Probably because they arent invested in them, or if they are, their risk is minimal and they say stupid things like,
"I dont care if the market drops 50% from here" - - - (Dimitrig)



There is nothing stupid about not fretting and hand-wringing about market volatility. Trump's tax cuts propelled the markets to unreasonable highs, COVID brought them to unreasonable lows. Whatever.

There was a time when I actively traded and even day-traded a handful of stocks but it was tiring given the returns and it was a real PITA at tax time.

Now I sometimes don't even look at the market for weeks.

If the market drops it will eventually create new highs. I don't need the money I have invested in the market to put food on my table.

I have also found that most people who talk about the market, even professionals, have no clue what the markets are responding to and why.

The Gamestop fiasco proved the market is completely disconnected from any old school idea of investing and it has basically become a casino with computers trying to skim razor thin profits by momentum trading.

I find that wholly uninteresting so, yeah, I don't give a crap about financial markets on short timescales.

Wake me if the DOW drop below 20,000. Then I might be interested.








DiabloWags
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dimitrig said:



The Gamestop fiasco proved the market is completely disconnected from any old school idea of investing and it has basically become a casino with computers trying to skim razor thin profits by momentum trading.

I find that wholly uninteresting so, yeah, I don't give a crap about financial markets on short timescales.

Wake me if the DOW drop below 20,000. Then I might be interested.



How old are you and how long have you been trading the market?

Anyone that repeatedly posts how they dont care about the market collapsing 50% either doesnt have any skin in the game or if they do, it is a tiny fraction of their net liquid worth and/or they dont care about managing their money in such a way that generates returns.

You're cavalier claim above pretty much says it all. You should have just stopped when you said,
"I dont give a crap."

PS. Gamestop was nothing more than a "momo" play in a small cap stock that had a massive short interest. In fact, 140% of the float had been sold short. I've been trading for over 40 years and I've never seen that kind of short-interest before. In fact, given some of the "issues" that can occur with stock loan, GME was literally an anomaly. - - - It would be terribly naive to claim that GME (and the other meme stocks) are reflective of the stock market in general.


Unit2Sucks
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DiabloWags said:

dimitrig said:



The Gamestop fiasco proved the market is completely disconnected from any old school idea of investing and it has basically become a casino with computers trying to skim razor thin profits by momentum trading.

I find that wholly uninteresting so, yeah, I don't give a crap about financial markets on short timescales.

Wake me if the DOW drop below 20,000. Then I might be interested.




Anyone that repeatedly posts how they dont care about the market collapsing 50% either doesnt have any skin in the game or if they do, it is a tiny fraction of their net liquid worth and/or they dont care about managing their money in such a way that generates returns.



Another alternative is that they have an asset allocation that is appropriate for the level of risk that they can handle. 50% market corrections are rare but they happen from time to time. If a market participant can't weather a drop like thst, they should probably adjust their allocation to something more conservative.

My mother freaked out after the March 2020 crash so once things went back up we helped her modify her portfolio to be more in line with her risk appetite and it's lowered her stress as well as her recent returns. It was the right move for her.

I have a higher risk appetite so I allocate more of my capital to startups.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

Sure looks like you're doing nothing but Trolling.
Or are you just being a noob?

Or are you genuinely serious about yapping about Lipstick on a Pig and the Fed . . . and yet the market has been in the green most of the session and closing 0.5% higher on the day?

Never mind that the S&P is up 9% since the low of 10 days ago on March 14th.

This post by you pretty much says it all.
It's why this thread is worthless.

DiabloWags
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In other news, the 10 year yield surged to 2.50% today.
Was trading 1.72% just three weeks ago.
Massive move!
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

Sure looks like you're doing nothing but Trolling.
Or are you just being a noob?

Or are you genuinely serious about yapping about Lipstick on a Pig and the Fed . . . and yet the market has been in the green most of the session and closing 0.5% higher on the day?

Never mind that the S&P is up 9% since the low of 10 days ago on March 14th.

This post by you pretty much says it all.
It's why this thread is worthless.




???? I am enjoying the discussion. Try not to be such a dick.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

Sure looks like you're doing nothing but Trolling.
Or are you just being a noob?

Or are you genuinely serious about yapping about Lipstick on a Pig and the Fed . . . and yet the market has been in the green most of the session and closing 0.5% higher on the day?

Never mind that the S&P is up 9% since the low of 10 days ago on March 14th.

This post by you pretty much says it all.
It's why this thread is worthless.




???? I am enjoying the discussion. Try not to be such a dick.

You've shown yourself not to deserve anything more than that.

If you educated yourself as much on the stock market as you have about Covid vaccines, you'd know just how ignorant and utterly ridiculous your post is.
BearNIt
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:


Growth stocks have been nearly in a "free-fall" ever since the FED became much more hawkish on raising interest rates at their December meeting.

All this, on top of a massive ROTATION out of growth names and into what are known as "value" stocks (primarily cyclicals) who have earnings tied to economic growth. This ROTATION began nearly a year ago as the economy began to open back up. It's why the energy sector has been on fire and the medical diagnostics sector has gotten slaughtered. It's why people like a growth fund manager Cathie Wood and her ARK Invest ETF's are down nearly 60% over the last 12 months.

Growth stocks with little to no earnings, high price to sales multiples and high-cash burn have been under tremendous selling pressure, because when rates go higher their future cash flows decline when those expected cash flows are discounted back to today, given that a higher (discount) rate is used in order to calculate intrinsic value. The lower the discount rate, the higher the value attributed today to future cash flows of tomorrow - - - and vice versa.

The typical "60/40" balanced approach that most financial advisors recommend for their clients IRA's and investment portfolios is also at big RISK here, because not only is the 40% portion of the portfolio getting clobbered (equities) but also the bond portion (60%) given the anticipation of higher rates in an attempt to cool off inflation.

Throw in global tensions over Ukraine and the market is heading nowhere but down until it finds a support level that can offer a decent bounce.

You literally have the stock market facing 3 negatives..... higher rates due to a FED trying to fight inflation, slower economic growth, and global military tensions.




I bought some Polestar at $11.50. I hope it doesn't get crushed. They have sales but the electric vehicle segment looks like it is correcting too.
Made a nice amount on the Rivian IPO
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever.

Kind of sad that this thread got bumped to page 2. So many spam hell2pay posts and Diablo, suffering from h2p derangement syndrome, responding to them.

Sure looks like you're doing nothing but Trolling.
Or are you just being a noob?

Or are you genuinely serious about yapping about Lipstick on a Pig and the Fed . . . and yet the market has been in the green most of the session and closing 0.5% higher on the day?

Never mind that the S&P is up 9% since the low of 10 days ago on March 14th.

This post by you pretty much says it all.
It's why this thread is worthless.




???? I am enjoying the discussion. Try not to be such a dick.

You've shown yourself not to deserve anything more than that.

If you educated yourself as much on the stock market as you have about Covid vaccines, you'd know just how ignorant and utterly ridiculous your post is.



I am not posting as an expert on the stock market. I am giving my opinion, which is that I believe the fed has been carrying the market with low interest rates and buying, and I believe it will go downward as they are reversing course. I am definitely interested in what you say about the market and haven't been arguing with you. I also enjoy U2Sucks thoughts on the market. Fyi, my post was made after the market dropped, it seemed to have recovered when the news reported that a Russian general said their armies were generally pulling out of West Ukraine.
DiabloWags
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Dow Jones down 550 points
S&P 500 down 72.

Quarterly Rebalancing hit hard in the final 30 minutes of trading.

Your typical "60/40" balanced fund had to rebalance away from stocks given that the bond market took a real beating this month vs the S&P holding up well on a relative basis.

Thus, stocks were for sale in the rebalancing.
DiabloWags
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Dow Jones down 981 points today.

Nomura now looking for two back to back 75 basis point rate hikes in June and July after a 50 basis point increase in May.



oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Dow Jones down 981 points today.

Nomura now looking for two back to back 75 basis point rate hikes in June and July after a 50 basis point increase in May.





Nomar Garciaparra?
DiabloWags
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If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.

Unit2Sucks
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DiabloWags said:

If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.


ding ding ding. It's friday and the Dow is down another 400.
calbear93
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Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.


ding ding ding. It's friday and the Dow is down another 400.
The negative trend will continue for now, and not just on Fridays.

There is too much at risk that, in light of pending recession, inflation, rising interest rate, Russia/Ukraine, etc., even the deflated multiples are too high. Understood the hit on high growth companies since they were priced on future earnings that are now less valuable in present day value, but now even values and cyclicals are getting hit. I think two of the big risk items will need resolution before there is another sustainable rally. THere will be outlier rallies from remaining bulls from time to time but this will be a brutal market for now until macro conditions improve. No place to hide with bonds getting hammered from increasing interest rate.

At the end of the day, these are the times why disciplined investment philosophy pays off. I exercised my investment discipline through two prior recessions and came out in the long run just fine by sticking with recurring investment and not trying to time the market.
BearForce2
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Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.


ding ding ding. It's friday and the Dow is down another 400.

It's Friday and the Dow is down 4,000 since the beginning of the year.
calbear93
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BearForce2 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.


ding ding ding. It's friday and the Dow is down another 400.

It's Friday and the Dow is down 4,000 since the beginning of the year.
Why do you think that is?
Unit2Sucks
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calbear93 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

If it's a Friday the Dow Jones must be down another 939 points.


ding ding ding. It's friday and the Dow is down another 400.
The negative trend will continue for now, and not just on Fridays.

There is too much at risk that, in light of pending recession, inflation, rising interest rate, Russia/Ukraine, etc., even the deflated multiples are too high. Understood the hit on high growth companies since they were priced on future earnings that are now less valuable in present day value, but now even values and cyclicals are getting hit. I think two of the big risk items will need resolution before there is another sustainable rally. THere will be outlier rallies from remaining bulls from time to time but this will be a brutal market for now until macro conditions improve. No place to hide with bonds getting hammered from increasing interest rate.

At the end of the day, these are the times why disciplined investment philosophy pays off. I exercised my investment discipline through two prior recessions and came out in the long run just fine by sticking with recurring investment and not trying to time the market.



Agreed, there is little reason for positive sentiment and there are arguments that the market is still overpriced.

I decided to bump his thread and then saw the last post had been a Friday so decided to mirror it. I don't think the day of the week is relevant to the price action.
cbbass1
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This is just the beginning.

I recommend reading Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin - I've been reading these every weekend for well over 10 years now.

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/05/weekly-commentary-global-quagmire.html

Simply put, there is no "soft landing".

Powell's Fed is not only raising interest rates; they're (supposedly) ending QE AND starting QT (Quantitative Tightening), selling assets from their balance sheet.

This is purportedly in an effort to rein in inflation, but much of the CPI increase is due to monopolies, with pricing power, raising prices, recording record earnings, and bragging about it to shareholders. The prime example is gasoline; retail prices are set by oil companies, who have pricing power.

This is going to be painful for the majority of working Americans.

I suspect that it's ultimately a political move by Capital to
  • ensure a sweeping victory for the GOP in the 2022 elections,
  • put Republicans in the majority of House & Senate,
  • cause a recession, which would
  • reverse the trend of rising wages & salaries,
  • force people back to work for low wages, in unsafe workplaces, without sick leave;
  • pass legislation to eliminate collective bargaining for public sector employees,
  • pass legislation to restrict the activities of union organizers, and
  • make the nationwide movement toward union organizing much more difficult.

In short, Capital must remain more organized than Labor in order to maintain hegemony.

As the recession and new legislation combine to lower wages & salaries, the U.S. worker/customer/voter class will cease to be a source of income for corporations. So expect corporations to be lining up at the trough for handouts from the U.S. Government, with the biggest political donors being the first in line.



 
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