tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

---

China's population dwarfs that of the US, Japan and Germany, but they all produce more cars than China, double in the cases of the US and Japan. That's not the most compelling point to open with.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

---

China's population dwarfs that of the US, Japan and Germany, but they all produce more cars than China, double in the cases of the US and Japan. That's not the most compelling point to open with.

---

Did you even watch the video? Sometimes your replies are unbelievably ignorant as you clutch onto your incorrect beliefs.

oski003 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

---

China's population dwarfs that of the US, Japan and Germany, but they all produce more cars than China, double in the cases of the US and Japan. That's not the most compelling point to open with.

---

Did you even watch the video? Sometimes your replies are unbelievably ignorant as you clutch onto your incorrect beliefs.

---

I'm at work and don't have the time to watch the video. I just looked at the opening screen on the video link and commented. I'd expect them to lead with their best point. The one on the video link appears to undercut Cal88's argument, but Cal88 does spin things in weird and strangely creative ways at times.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

---

China's population dwarfs that of the US, Japan and Germany, but they all produce more cars than China, double in the cases of the US and Japan. That's not the most compelling point to open with.

---

Did you even watch the video? Sometimes your replies are unbelievably ignorant as you clutch onto your incorrect beliefs.

---

I'm at work and don't have the time to watch the video. I just looked at the opening screen on the video link and commented. I'd expect them to lead with their best point. The one on the video link appears to undercut Cal88's argument, but Cal88 does spin things in weird and strangely creative ways at times.

---

That's a poor excuse for making a totally incorrect assertion.

https://www.google.com/search?q=who+makes+the+most+cars+in+the+world&oq=who+makes+the+nost+cars&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgCEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg5MgkIARAAGA0YgAQyCQgCEAAYDRiABDIJCAMQABgNGIAEMgkIBBAAGA0YgAQyCQgFEAAYDRiABDIJCAYQABgNGIAEMgkIBxAAGA0YgAQyCAgIEAAYDRgeMggICRAAGA0YHjIICAoQABgWGB4yCAgLEAAYFhgeMggIDBAAGBYYHjIICA0QABgWGB4yCAgOEAAYFhge0gEINDg3NGowajeoAgCwAgA&client=ms-android-google&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/6-countries-produce-most-cars.asp

Unit2Sucks said:

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dajo9 said:

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China has a huge property collapse and economic slowdown unfolding. Everything is changing for them.

---

We're seeing an increasing number of Chinese migrants at the Southern border and it's not because everything is great in China. It's called runxue and reflects some of the despair young Chinese face with the lack of opportunities, particularly for college grads.

One thing the haters of America will never want to acknowledge is that America is still a huge draw for the best and brightest in the world. We see far more migration from China than to China (6 figures per year). Ditto for India. And China has seen net migration out while America continues to see extremely strong net migration in.

Russia is even more drastic. I've known a lot of Americans who have lived in China or even moved to China but precious few who would even consider living in Russia, let alone actually doing it.

So while we see Russian shills telling us how great Russia is, none of them would ever consider moving there. The wealthiest Russians make their money from the kleptocracy off the backs of the Russian poor, but they live outside Russia and spend their money elsewhere. With the exception of many wealthy Chinese (and Indians), the wealthiest people generally want to live in the West. But make no mistake there are still plenty of wealthy Chinese who take their talents to the US (I know of several just in my kids' classes at school who made their money in China before immigrating here). The whole anchor baby thing is more evidence of the phenomenon.

The West certainly isn't perfect, but it's still a far more desirable place to be than the authoritarian countries that a lot of America haters disingenuously promote.

---

Your perspective, in addition to being comically passive aggressive, is culturally out of touch on two levels, both as an ideological true believer, and a well-off professional from a big coastal city.

-The trajectory of the US economy and social structure has not been very good, and pointing this out should not make one a Russian or CCP shill. Many sectors of US economic activity like healthcare, education, housing, urban policies etc are nearly dysfunctional, and getting worse all the time.

In the 1980s, someone like Al Bundy could raise a family, buy a home in Chicago on a shoe salesman salary. Today, a working couple with the same type of job can barely afford to rent an apartment. The middle class is getting squeezed out, and the ranks of the working poor are growing. Students are graduating with huge debts and fewer high-paying opportunities.

You'd have to be really set in your ideological blinders to not acknowledge this state of things.

-Acknowledging that other countries are doing better, and have had better trajectories in terms of their economic development (albeit for many, starting from a much lower position) also does not make one a shill.

The challenges that China face look somewhat trivial compared to many of those we face here or in W. Europe. A growing share of their students who went abroad are now coming back home:

1 million Chinese students are returning home every year after studying in the US.

For many people, China is much better than USA. Why?

🔹equivalent salary in purchasing power
🔹better infrastructure
🔹much better education for kids
🔹safe, clean cities
🔹no racism
🔹future… pic.twitter.com/00ud5kHTVf

— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) November 13, 2023

You can only finance the large trade deficit associated with being a consumer demand/imports-driven economy if you are the global fiat currency and are able to sell enough dollar-backed treasuries abroad. That is no longer a given going forward, as global trade is dedolarizing, and US treasuries are no longer perceived as risk-free.

oski003 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Even IMF projections are based on CCP provided numbers, right?

---

Have you ever been to China?

If anything, the nominal GDP figures tend to underestimate China's economy, their industrial base already is as large of that of the US and EU combined. Take a look for example at the evolution of the global auto industry:



https://www.statista.com/statistics/233942/chinas-share-of-global-production-capacity-of-the-automobile-industry/

---

China's population dwarfs that of the US, Japan and Germany, but they all produce more cars than China, double in the cases of the US and Japan. That's not the most compelling point to open with.

---

Did you even watch the video? Sometimes your replies are unbelievably ignorant as you clutch onto your incorrect beliefs.

---

I'm at work and don't have the time to watch the video. I just looked at the opening screen on the video link and commented. I'd expect them to lead with their best point. The one on the video link appears to undercut Cal88's argument, but Cal88 does spin things in weird and strangely creative ways at times.

---

That's a poor excuse for making a totally incorrect assertion.

https://www.google.com/search?q=who+makes+the+most+cars+in+the+world&oq=who+makes+the+nost+cars&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCQgCEAAYDRiABDIGCAAQRRg5MgkIARAAGA0YgAQyCQgCEAAYDRiABDIJCAMQABgNGIAEMgkIBBAAGA0YgAQyCQgFEAAYDRiABDIJCAYQABgNGIAEMgkIBxAAGA0YgAQyCAgIEAAYDRgeMggICRAAGA0YHjIICAoQABgWGB4yCAgLEAAYFhgeMggIDBAAGBYYHjIICA0QABgWGB4yCAgOEAAYFhge0gEINDg3NGowajeoAgCwAgA&client=ms-android-google&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/6-countries-produce-most-cars.asp

---

Your Investopedia number of 26 million cars produced by China is radically higher (though likely accurate) than the 5.5 million on the Youtube video opening screen. That would make a big difference in how I react to the numbers. It's still fewer per capita than the US or Japan.

With all the Youtube info superimposed at the top of the video, I did not see until now that it said 1950-2022. Had I seen that, I wouldn't have commented. In the light of that and the more impressive number from Investopedia, I'll withdraw my comment.

DiabloWags said:

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Putin88 said:

---

Your perspective, in addition to being comically passive aggressive, is culturally out of touch on two levels, both as an ideological true believer, and a well-off professional from a big coastal city.

---

Speaking about perspective . . .

The UNITED STATES is the GLOBAL LEADER in services.

As Dajo points out above, there's a reason why China's Govt. is "stuck" as a manufacturing economy.
It's all about CONTROLLING the population.

Interestingly enough, for someone that is constantly touting HOW GREAT Russia and China are, you choose to live in Europe and avoid an authoritarian regime.

Shocker!

---

So when the US was the world leader in manufacturing in the decades following WW2, and was largely a manufacturing economy, was it all about "CONTROLLING people"?

Are the economies of South Korea, Japan and Germany, where the share of manufacturing is higher than in the US, all about "CONTROLLING people"?

Has there been a decline in purchasing power in the US and W Europe over the last several decades, corresponding with the decline of our industrial base?

You probably live in a house in the 925 that you've purchased in the 90s for a small fraction of its current price, paid $1,000 for your 1970s Cal tuition, back when the acceptance rate was well over 50%. Like many local boomers you are out of touch with the current mainstream economy.

I am lucky enough to have built a nest egg that will allow me to retire later this decade, probably in the south of France or Italy, but I see a huge decline in local living standards, increasing insecurity and social strife, even more dramatic than in the US. If I were Russian or Chinese and had some roots or cultural affiliations there, I might have considered moving there.

In the US, you are starting to see ever growing numbers of Americans wanting to retire abroad because they can't afford to retire at home, going to places like Mexico, Ecuador, Nicaragua etc.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-crisis-economic-refugees-why-more-americans-are-retiring-abroad/

Unit2Sucks said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Interestingly enough, for someone that is constantly touting HOW GREAT Russia and China are, you choose to live in Europe and avoid an authoritarian regime.

Shocker!

---

There are pretty much two things you can take to the bank with Putin88. He will argue in favor of authoritarian regimes that he would never in a million years subject himself or his family to and that he will do so with made up or extremely misleading information.

I no longer see his posts thanks to the ignore function, but I will go out on a very short limb and say that virtually all of whatever data he may be citing in favor of his position is not accurate for the purposes he is asserting.

---

The scary part associated with this graphic is that China is dominating the electric car supply chain and market. Once the combustion engine is phased out in US blue states and in Europe in the 2030s, their global domination of that industry is going to become even more dramatic.


edit - that was meant in reply to E. Oregon's post above

Cal88 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Putin88 said:

---

Your perspective, in addition to being comically passive aggressive, is culturally out of touch on two levels, both as an ideological true believer, and a well-off professional from a big coastal city.

---

Speaking about perspective . . .

The UNITED STATES is the GLOBAL LEADER in services.

As Dajo points out above, there's a reason why China's Govt. is "stuck" as a manufacturing economy.
It's all about CONTROLLING the population.

Interestingly enough, for someone that is constantly touting HOW GREAT Russia and China are, you choose to live in Europe and avoid an authoritarian regime.

Shocker!

---

So when the US was the world leader in manufacturing in the decades following WW2, and was largely a manufacturing economy, was it all about "CONTROLLING people"?

Are the economies of South Korea, Japan and Germany, where the share of manufacturing is higher than in the US, all about "CONTROLLING people"?

Has there been a decline in purchasing power in the US and W Europe over the last several decades, corresponding with the decline of our industrial base?

You probably live in a house in the 925 that you've purchased in the 90s for a small fraction of its current price, paid $1,000 for your 1970s Cal tuition, back when the acceptance rate was well over 50%. Like many local boomers you are out of touch with the current mainstream economy.

I am lucky enough to have built a nest egg that will allow me to retire later this decade, probably in the south of France or Italy, but I see a huge decline in local living standards, increasing insecurity and social strife, even more dramatic than in the US. If I were Russian or Chinese and had some roots or cultural affiliations there, I might have considered moving there.

In the US, you are starting to see ever growing numbers of Americans wanting to retire abroad because they can't afford to retire at home, going to places like Mexico, Ecuador, Nicaragua etc.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-crisis-economic-refugees-why-more-americans-are-retiring-abroad/

---

When the U.S. dominated manufacturing it continued to follow the path of free markets and freedom and transitioned to a richer, consumer based economy.

Here is consumption as percent of GDP for the countries you mentioned as of 2019. So, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.
U.S. 70%
Germany 54%
Japan 53% (their economy is broken)
South Korea 44% (small country punching above its weight thanks to manufacturing)
China 39%

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-household-consumption-in-gdp-vs-gdp-per-capita?tab=table

What does that number mean, big picture? 39% vs 70%. We are more consumer oriented???? And that tells us???

This is for movielover
https://www.threads.net/@jawbreaker0834/post/C0cT8kYJO4J/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

What does it matter if Putin is dead or alive since Wagner is now in charge?

#UkraineWinning2024

House Democrats have ditched the term, "Bidenomics." The term was seen as "tone-deaf to voters still struggling economically and also invoked a president with lackluster polling numbers".

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/03/house-democrats-bidenomics-2024-elections-biden

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

dajo9 said:

---

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

---

If we're playing at least checkers instead of tic tac toe, that means the FED will not be lowering interest rate any time soon and that the annual wage increase rate has slowed to 4% but still higher than the FED target.

To discuss this at a meaningful level, there is still an unknown on whether there will be a hard landing or soft landing when the interest rate starts going down but what I am seeing across most industries is an uncommon low rate of voluntary attrition among non-hourly wage roles indicating lack of desirable jobs in the white collar job market. What I anticipate and hearing are more restructuring in 2024 (initial hope was for the costs of structured, large layoffs of white collar roles to be mostly incurred in 2023) as lack of voluntary attrition leads to still too many employees at too high costs partly from over reaction to the now quaint Great Resignation.

No amount of tic tac toe thinking will cause people in the investment community or average worker to think this economy is great. Otherwise Biden would not be trailing the unelectable, potential future convicted criminal. Not sure whether you are truly just a tic tac toe player or are just playing the part, but not sure this is the great news you are selling. It seems meh to me.

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

---

If we're playing at least checkers instead of tic tac toe, that means the FED will not be lowering interest rate any time soon and that the annual wage increase rate has slowed to 4% but still higher than the FED target.

To discuss this at a meaningful level, there is still an unknown on whether there will be a hard landing or soft landing when the interest rate starts going down but what I am seeing across most industries is an uncommon low rate of voluntary attrition among non-hourly wage roles indicating lack of desirable jobs in the white collar job market. What I anticipate and hearing are more restructuring in 2024 (initial hope was for the costs of structured, large layoffs of white collar roles to be mostly incurred in 2023) as lack of voluntary attrition leads to still too many employees at too high costs partly from over reaction to the now quaint Great Resignation.

No amount of tic tac toe thinking will cause people in the investment community or average worker to think this economy is great. Otherwise Biden would not be trailing the unelectable, potential future convicted criminal. Not sure whether you are truly just a tic tac toe player or are just playing the part, but not sure this is the great news you are selling. It seems meh to me.

---

Eventually there will be a recession and you will be able to claim you are right. I congratulate you in advance.

I have read three things recently of potential economic interest:
- lower rate of voluntarily leaving jobs (the great resignation, or whatever it was called, is potentially subsiding)
- employers are starting to spend less money on employee benefits
- some segments of the job market are softening.

If it's correct that employment is a measure of the Fed's monetary policy (increase rates > decrease job demand = lower inflation) there are some potential signs their actions are taking hold.

tequila4kapp said:

---

I have read three things recently of potential economic interest:
- lower rate of voluntarily leaving jobs (the great resignation, or whatever it was called, is potentially subsiding)
- employers are starting to spend less money on employee benefits
- some segments of the job market are softening.

If it's correct that employment is a measure of the Fed's monetary policy (increase rates > decrease job demand = lower inflation) there are some potential signs their actions are taking hold.

---

Definitely is. However, inflation is sticky and the FED will be rightfully more conservative than liberal in any future lowering of rates since the worst possible situation is for a rebound in inflation acceleration due to premature easing and potential stagflation that is impossible to turn around quickly.

The great resignation is definitely gone. What you are seeing is the great stay where companies who counted on normal attrition is not seeing it - leading to even fewer desirable high paying jobs. Suspect there will be more restructuring coming in 2024 but maybe not as large as the first half of 2023.

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

---

If we're playing at least checkers instead of tic tac toe, that means the FED will not be lowering interest rate any time soon and that the annual wage increase rate has slowed to 4% but still higher than the FED target.

To discuss this at a meaningful level, there is still an unknown on whether there will be a hard landing or soft landing when the interest rate starts going down but what I am seeing across most industries is an uncommon low rate of voluntary attrition among non-hourly wage roles indicating lack of desirable jobs in the white collar job market. What I anticipate and hearing are more restructuring in 2024 (initial hope was for the costs of structured, large layoffs of white collar roles to be mostly incurred in 2023) as lack of voluntary attrition leads to still too many employees at too high costs partly from over reaction to the now quaint Great Resignation.

No amount of tic tac toe thinking will cause people in the investment community or average worker to think this economy is great. Otherwise Biden would not be trailing the unelectable, potential future convicted criminal. Not sure whether you are truly just a tic tac toe player or are just playing the part, but not sure this is the great news you are selling. It seems meh to me.

---

Eventually there will be a recession and you will be able to claim you are right. I congratulate you in advance.

---

You think at a third grade level but pretend to be some professor. The discussion on recession that you keep referring to was the debate on the right definition or indication of recession. My point that two quarters of decelerating growth are commonly seen as indicators of recession is played by you as some gotcha when we had agreed that the economy was still stable. Shall we regurgitate your calls? Calling peak of equity in 2017 right before the market run, claiming monetary and spending policy not creating inflation right before inflation, calling inflation transitory, calling for investment on treasury when all indications were interest rates were going to rise. I think you need to stop. No one here based on your past calls and especially by people who engage with actual experts who have skin in the game think you have any clue. The only people you fool are people who are actually more interested in politics than facts and have no clue on the markets and the economy. Congrats on being the lead dog of financial illiterates.

---

It is obvious what you are doing in your calls for more advanced and in-depth discussion of economics on an obscure Off Topic message board when people are posting the latest headlines. You are trying to bring up 'things are not as good as they seem" messaging. It's just politics People on the left do it when Republicans are President and people on the right do it when Democrats are President.

My point about recession was based squarely on your posts here. It is only you who gets angry and goes back to the same old arguments over and over again. I'm sorry that you are so unsettled about your call back in 2022 in-real-time that we were already in recession that you are seeing ghosts today.

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

---

If we're playing at least checkers instead of tic tac toe, that means the FED will not be lowering interest rate any time soon and that the annual wage increase rate has slowed to 4% but still higher than the FED target.

To discuss this at a meaningful level, there is still an unknown on whether there will be a hard landing or soft landing when the interest rate starts going down but what I am seeing across most industries is an uncommon low rate of voluntary attrition among non-hourly wage roles indicating lack of desirable jobs in the white collar job market. What I anticipate and hearing are more restructuring in 2024 (initial hope was for the costs of structured, large layoffs of white collar roles to be mostly incurred in 2023) as lack of voluntary attrition leads to still too many employees at too high costs partly from over reaction to the now quaint Great Resignation.

No amount of tic tac toe thinking will cause people in the investment community or average worker to think this economy is great. Otherwise Biden would not be trailing the unelectable, potential future convicted criminal. Not sure whether you are truly just a tic tac toe player or are just playing the part, but not sure this is the great news you are selling. It seems meh to me.

---

Eventually there will be a recession and you will be able to claim you are right. I congratulate you in advance.

---

You think at a third grade level but pretend to be some professor. The discussion on recession that you keep referring to was the debate on the right definition or indication of recession. My point that two quarters of decelerating growth are commonly seen as indicators of recession is played by you as some gotcha when we had agreed that the economy was still stable. Shall we regurgitate your calls? Calling peak of equity in 2017 right before the market run, claiming monetary and spending policy not creating inflation right before inflation, calling inflation transitory, calling for investment on treasury when all indications were interest rates were going to rise. I think you need to stop. No one here based on your past calls and especially by people who engage with actual experts who have skin in the game think you have any clue. The only people you fool are people who are actually more interested in politics than facts and have no clue on the markets and the economy. Congrats on being the lead dog of financial illiterates.

---

It is obvious what you are doing in your calls for more advanced and in-depth discussion of economics on an obscure Off Topic message board when people are posting the latest headlines. You are trying to bring up 'things are not as good as they seem" messaging. It's just politics People on the left do it when Republicans are President and people on the right do it when Democrats are President.

My point about recession was based squarely on your posts here. It is only you who gets angry and goes back to the same old arguments over and over again. I'm sorry that you are so unsettled about your call back in 2022 in-real-time that we were already in recession that you are seeing ghosts today.

---

Don't project your inauthentic persona to others. I have never asked for more detailed analysis from anyone. You are the one who pretends to be a proud expert who understands true economic trends. I do not mock the economic position of others since they are more curious as opposed to dismissive like you when you are still absolutely wrong on fundamental realities.

I am not unsettled. And it's you who seem confused. When a statement that, based on leading rule of thumb, we are in a recession based on two quarters of growth deceleration but the economy is stable, is viewed as a gotcha for you, you are the one who is seeking nuances on an OT board.

Look, I have no idea why you choose to be so fake here. Is it working for you? You may fool people for awhile but everyone eventually figures out the fake.

House Democrats have ditched the term, BIdenomics.

Voters, not just Democratic Party leadership, also feel negatively about Bidenomics, with Democratic sources telling Axios that the term was "seen as tone-deaf to voters still struggling economically and also invoked a president with lackluster polling numbers."

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Strong jobs report +199k with unemployment back down to 3.7% extending Biden's low unemployment record. Strong wage gains too.

Get out your mugs. There will be more tears from the haters.

---

If we're playing at least checkers instead of tic tac toe, that means the FED will not be lowering interest rate any time soon and that the annual wage increase rate has slowed to 4% but still higher than the FED target.

To discuss this at a meaningful level, there is still an unknown on whether there will be a hard landing or soft landing when the interest rate starts going down but what I am seeing across most industries is an uncommon low rate of voluntary attrition among non-hourly wage roles indicating lack of desirable jobs in the white collar job market. What I anticipate and hearing are more restructuring in 2024 (initial hope was for the costs of structured, large layoffs of white collar roles to be mostly incurred in 2023) as lack of voluntary attrition leads to still too many employees at too high costs partly from over reaction to the now quaint Great Resignation.

No amount of tic tac toe thinking will cause people in the investment community or average worker to think this economy is great. Otherwise Biden would not be trailing the unelectable, potential future convicted criminal. Not sure whether you are truly just a tic tac toe player or are just playing the part, but not sure this is the great news you are selling. It seems meh to me.

---

Eventually there will be a recession and you will be able to claim you are right. I congratulate you in advance.

---

You think at a third grade level but pretend to be some professor. The discussion on recession that you keep referring to was the debate on the right definition or indication of recession. My point that two quarters of decelerating growth are commonly seen as indicators of recession is played by you as some gotcha when we had agreed that the economy was still stable. Shall we regurgitate your calls? Calling peak of equity in 2017 right before the market run, claiming monetary and spending policy not creating inflation right before inflation, calling inflation transitory, calling for investment on treasury when all indications were interest rates were going to rise. I think you need to stop. No one here based on your past calls and especially by people who engage with actual experts who have skin in the game think you have any clue. The only people you fool are people who are actually more interested in politics than facts and have no clue on the markets and the economy. Congrats on being the lead dog of financial illiterates.

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It is obvious what you are doing in your calls for more advanced and in-depth discussion of economics on an obscure Off Topic message board when people are posting the latest headlines. You are trying to bring up 'things are not as good as they seem" messaging. It's just politics People on the left do it when Republicans are President and people on the right do it when Democrats are President.

My point about recession was based squarely on your posts here. It is only you who gets angry and goes back to the same old arguments over and over again. I'm sorry that you are so unsettled about your call back in 2022 in-real-time that we were already in recession that you are seeing ghosts today.

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Don't project your inauthentic persona to others. I have never asked for more detailed analysis from anyone. You are the one who pretends to be a proud expert who understands true economic trends. I do not mock the economic position of others since they are more curious as opposed to dismissive like you when you are still absolutely wrong on fundamental realities.

I am not unsettled. And it's you who seem confused. When a statement that, based on leading rule of thumb, we are in a recession based on two quarters of growth deceleration but the economy is stable, is viewed as a gotcha for you, you are the one who is seeking nuances on an OT board.

Look, I have no idea why you choose to be so fake here. Is it working for you? You may fool people for awhile but everyone eventually figures out the fake.

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Good response. I hope that helped.