dajo9 said:

---

Blue collar workers are better off than before covid
hxxps://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1673950904226127874?s=20

---

It's true that many blue collar workers are better off than they were before Covid.

However, there's no cause for the Dems, nor the Biden admin to take credit for this.

After watching the "Biden Agenda" of raising the Minimum Wage and other pro-Worker policies get decimated by Shadow President Manchin and the Senate Parliamentarian, workers across the U.S. decided that if they were going to get a better deal, they'd have to do it themselves -- by getting organized, dumping their pro-corporate leaders, and Winning MUCH better agreements with employers.

Blue collar Workers made huge gains despite Biden/Dem policies, not because of them.

dajo9 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Bad inflations numbers out today.

Another report today indicates the majority of job growth is from migrants, while the percentage of white male working age people leaving the workforce voluntarily is highest on record.

---

What tequila and the corporate news are calling a bad inflation number is 3.1% year over year inflation. Down from 3.4% last month. Over 2/3's of the increase is from Shelter which continues its slow, lagged trend back down. Shelter was up 6.0%, down from 6.2% the prior month.

---

It was characterized as bad in news reports because it was higher than projected:



And higher than the Fed's target 2% range for 3 years, though mostly improving for @18 months.

tequila4kapp said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Bad inflations numbers out today.

Another report today indicates the majority of job growth is from migrants, while the percentage of white male working age people leaving the workforce voluntarily is highest on record.

---

What tequila and the corporate news are calling a bad inflation number is 3.1% year over year inflation. Down from 3.4% last month. Over 2/3's of the increase is from Shelter which continues its slow, lagged trend back down. Shelter was up 6.0%, down from 6.2% the prior month.

---

It was characterized as bad in news reports because it was higher than projected:



And higher than the Fed's target 2% range for 3 years, though mostly improving for @18 months.

---

You know this because you have understanding of the market and, and unlike some posters, are not just playing at being an expert, but this just means that the Fed may not be as willing to reduce interest rate aggressively. As such, the risk to smaller delta on equity return vs bond return hurts all equity but most especially high growth stocks whose multiples are based on future revenue that is worth less on a present day basis.

tequila4kapp said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

Bad inflations numbers out today.

Another report today indicates the majority of job growth is from migrants, while the percentage of white male working age people leaving the workforce voluntarily is highest on record.

---

What tequila and the corporate news are calling a bad inflation number is 3.1% year over year inflation. Down from 3.4% last month. Over 2/3's of the increase is from Shelter which continues its slow, lagged trend back down. Shelter was up 6.0%, down from 6.2% the prior month.

---

It was characterized as bad in news reports because it was higher than projected:



And higher than the Fed's target 2% range for 3 years, though mostly improving for @18 months.

---

Talk about a misleading headline from Barrons. Inflation didn't "rise" to 3.1%, it fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December and 6.4% from last January. The market is quite reactionary but misleading headlines like this fuel the alarmism.

Most of the alarmists predicted that inflation wouldn't come down this fast and that we would need to be in a recession with massive dislocation in the labor markets to have achieved this.

Even Yogi knows Bidenomics is primarily about how the economy affects households and that the markets are a secondary consideration. But for people who idolize the mighty dollar and their own accounts that becomes a cognitive problem.

dajo9 said:

---

Even Yogi knows Bidenomics is primarily about how the economy affects households and that the markets are a secondary consideration. But for people who idolize the mighty dollar and their own accounts that becomes a cognitive problem.

---

I generally agree - day to day expenses are more readily apparent. But if people are putting money in their 401k like they are supposed to then they should definitely care about the market, too.

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

All "jobs" added in the past year have been part-time workers pic.twitter.com/fOZ6opmdRO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2024

Bidenomics

---

That's an interesting data point presented from our Russian propaganda friends at zerohedge, so I researched it. Did you?

Turns out twice as many part time jobs were lost to Covid than full time jobs (makes sense). Full time jobs were fully recovered in 2022. Part time jobs fully recovered in 2023.
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2023/10/11/is-the-job-growth-driven-by-part-time-workers/

---

Looks like Trump and Biden have done a good job setting ourselves back on course after Covid shut down the economy.

---

Lol

---

https://fortune.com/2024/02/13/national-debt-elon-musk-government-spending-interest/amp/


Uncle Sam is drowning in a $34 trillion debt owed to creditors worldwide, surpassing the annual output of the entire U.S. economy by over 20%.

The terse judgment came in response to a monthly statement by the U.S. Treasury showing the $357 billion in interest payments had easily eclipsed the $283 billion spent on the country's military and defense in the 10 months of the 2024 fiscal year through January.

That's why Fitch already downgraded the federal government's credit rating last summer as a result of intractable divisions on Capitol Hill, following Standard & Poor's groundbreaking cut in 2011.

Should Moody's follow, as is likely, it would conclusively mark the end of the sterling AAA rating for U.S. sovereign bonds.

However, neither the Big Three rating agenciesnor even Powell for that matterenjoy the same credibility as Musk from many Americans, in particular conservatives, who credit him with growing Tesla and SpaceX into successful, industry-leading multinationals.

"When you add unfunded obligations [e.g. social security & medicare], plus state and local debt," he wrote last month, "government debt will soon exceed $100 trillion!"

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

All "jobs" added in the past year have been part-time workers pic.twitter.com/fOZ6opmdRO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2024

Bidenomics

---

That's an interesting data point presented from our Russian propaganda friends at zerohedge, so I researched it. Did you?

Turns out twice as many part time jobs were lost to Covid than full time jobs (makes sense). Full time jobs were fully recovered in 2022. Part time jobs fully recovered in 2023.
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2023/10/11/is-the-job-growth-driven-by-part-time-workers/

---

Looks like Trump and Biden have done a good job setting ourselves back on course after Covid shut down the economy.

---

Lol

---

https://fortune.com/2024/02/13/national-debt-elon-musk-government-spending-interest/amp/

Uncle Sam is drowning in a $34 trillion debt owed to creditors worldwide, surpassing the annual output of the entire U.S. economy by over 20%.

The terse judgment came in response to a monthly statement by the U.S. Treasury showing the $357 billion in interest payments had easily eclipsed the $283 billion spent on the country's military and defense in the 10 months of the 2024 fiscal year through January.

That's why Fitch already downgraded the federal government's credit rating last summer as a result of intractable divisions on Capitol Hill, following Standard & Poor's groundbreaking cut in 2011.

Should Moody's follow, as is likely, it would conclusively mark the end of the sterling AAA rating for U.S. sovereign bonds.

However, neither the Big Three rating agencies nor even Powell for that matter enjoy the same credibility as Musk from many Americans, in particular conservatives, who credit him with growing Tesla and SpaceX into successful, industry-leading multinationals.

"When you add unfunded obligations [e.g. social security & medicare], plus state and local debt," he wrote last month, "government debt will soon exceed $100 trillion!"

---

There is no such thing as worldwide creditors when it comes to the U.S. government. The U.S. Government doesn't borrow money from other countries or private entities. This whole article is laughable bull*****

In fact, Musk built his entire fortune on the backs of U.S. Government spending, so if anything, he should be thanking the government for their profligate spending.

Genocide Joe said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

All "jobs" added in the past year have been part-time workers pic.twitter.com/fOZ6opmdRO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2024

Bidenomics

---

That's an interesting data point presented from our Russian propaganda friends at zerohedge, so I researched it. Did you?

Turns out twice as many part time jobs were lost to Covid than full time jobs (makes sense). Full time jobs were fully recovered in 2022. Part time jobs fully recovered in 2023.
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2023/10/11/is-the-job-growth-driven-by-part-time-workers/

---

Looks like Trump and Biden have done a good job setting ourselves back on course after Covid shut down the economy.

---

Lol

---

https://fortune.com/2024/02/13/national-debt-elon-musk-government-spending-interest/amp/

Uncle Sam is drowning in a $34 trillion debt owed to creditors worldwide, surpassing the annual output of the entire U.S. economy by over 20%.

The terse judgment came in response to a monthly statement by the U.S. Treasury showing the $357 billion in interest payments had easily eclipsed the $283 billion spent on the country's military and defense in the 10 months of the 2024 fiscal year through January.

That's why Fitch already downgraded the federal government's credit rating last summer as a result of intractable divisions on Capitol Hill, following Standard & Poor's groundbreaking cut in 2011.

Should Moody's follow, as is likely, it would conclusively mark the end of the sterling AAA rating for U.S. sovereign bonds.

However, neither the Big Three rating agencies nor even Powell for that matter enjoy the same credibility as Musk from many Americans, in particular conservatives, who credit him with growing Tesla and SpaceX into successful, industry-leading multinationals.

"When you add unfunded obligations [e.g. social security & medicare], plus state and local debt," he wrote last month, "government debt will soon exceed $100 trillion!"

---

There is no such thing as worldwide creditors when it comes to the U.S. government. The U.S. Government doesn't borrow money from other countries or private entities. This whole article is laughable bull*****

In fact, Musk built his entire fortune on the backs of U.S. Government spending, so if anything, he should be thanking the government for their profligate spending.

---

Bondholders are essentially creditors and foreign investors have US Treasury bonds.

Over $400k of stolen wages recovered for Texas supermarket workers by Biden's Department of Labor
https://www.threads.net/@undeadben/post/C3aRarbOf4E/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Talk about a misleading headline from Barrons. Inflation didn't "rise" to 3.1%, it fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in Decemberand 6.4% from last January. The market is quite reactionary but misleading headlines like this fuel the alarmism.

---

"Expected" is the key word here.

Consensus by econonists polled by Fact-Set was for a 2.9% increase.

This is why the markets sold off so dramatically on the CPI news on Tuesday.

Honestly, I don't have an issue with the Barron's headline.
The 3.1% rise was YoY and the increase was higher than expected.

The "core" rate was obviously an issue for the markets as well. PPI on Friday also "sticky" due to costs of services.
It was the largest gain in 5 months. The Fed's most watched core PCE will be out Feb. 29th.

The last several months have been:

Dec 2023: +2.9%
Nov. 2023 +3.2%
Oct. 2023 +3.4%
Sep. 2023 +3.6%

Note: Atlanta GDPNow currently at 2.9% for Q1 as of 2/16

DiabloWags said:

---

Honestly, I don't have an issue with the Barron's headline.
The 3.1% rise was YoY and the increase was higher than expected.

The "core" rate was obviously an issue for the markets as well. PPI on Friday also "sticky" due to costs of services.
It was the largest gain in 5 months. The Fed's most watched core PCE will be out Feb. 29th.

The last several months have been:

Dec 2023: +2.9%
Nov. 2023 +3.2%
Oct. 2023 +3.4%
Sep. 2023 +3.6%

Note: Atlanta GDPNow currently at 2.9% for Q1 as of 2/16

---

That's all fine but it's orthogonal to what I'm talking about. I'm not debating the data, I'm debating the clickbait headline.

If you read the actual Barron's article, it's clear the author wasn't misusing the term, it was just a misleading clickbait headline.

To wit:

Quote:

---

The latest reading of the consumer price index, released today at 8:30 a.m., showed the annual rate of inflation dropped less than expected to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December.

---

I guess saying "dropped less than expected" doesn't sound as good as "inflation rose" to a person who doesn't understand what inflation is. My guess is that the copywriter who wrote the headline doesn't have a clue that inflation in economics means an increase in prices. Or they were trying to get it wrong.

Genocide Joe said:

---

In fact, Musk built his entire fortune on the backs of U.S. Government spending, so if anything, he should be thanking the government for their profligate spending.

---

Actually, Musk got lucky at the time given interest rate differentials and was able to save Tesla given that they had $10 billion in debt in 2017.

Remember, the company burned through more than $1 billion in the first quarter of 2018, ending the quarter with less than $2.7 billion in the bank. I believe the Model 3 had finally been rolled out in 2017.

The interest rate differential between Europe and the U.S., (given the negative rates overseas) was highly beneficial to attracting buyers of Tesla debt and keeping the company afloat at the time when the were burning through massive amounts of cash.

dajo9 said:

---

Even Yogi knows Bidenomics is primarily about how the economy affects households and that the markets are a secondary consideration. But for people who idolize the mighty dollar and their own accounts that becomes a cognitive problem.

---

Sorry, but you just cant discount the wealth effect on households.

Never mind that the labor force participation rate for those over 65 has fallen and doesnt look like it will be rebounding anytime soon. Booming asset returns in 2020 - 2021 help explain a significant number of dropouts from the workforce.

This was a period where the S&P 500 returned over 35% from Dec. 2019 - Dec 2021 in real terms. Meanwhile, housing's real return was close to 20% in the period.

dajo9 said:

---

Yes, posting facts and data triggers a lot of people around here. People like their "feels" so much more.

---

It's not unusual for consumer's perceptions of inflation (and consumer sentiment) to lag actual "headline" inflation data, especially given their repeated purchases of 4 primary categories. food, fuel, apparel, and restaurants.

https://now.tufts.edu/2024/02/16/whats-connection-between-inflation-and-higher-prices-and-wages

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/inflation-perceptions-during-the-covid-pandemic-and-recovery-20240119.html

calbear93 said:

---

The market is priced for perfection and the FED aggressively lowering interest rate. What FED does will depend on employment rate and wage inflation. People talk about soft landing. We may still get it but we have not landed yet. A lot of mixed signals.

---

What a difference a few weeks makes.

The market goes from 6 rate cuts to 3.

And now the market has pushed out the first rate cut to June. You could actually make the case that our current economic circumstances are best described as the "never-landing"

Unprecedented growth by a tech company this large.

Nvidia's data-center business, primarily driven by AI grew 409% from last year to $18.4 Billion.

They guided to $24 Billion in revs for the current quarter. Amazing!

The FTC and a bipartisan group of 8 states have sued to stop the Kroger's / Albertson's merger. The merger would likely raise grocery prices and lower wages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/ftc-sues-to-block-kroger-s-24-6-billion-albertsons-acquisition

All the jobs are from Democratic Presidencies
https://www.threads.net/@thedemocraticcoalition/post/C30rkKXPfrr/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

dajo9 said:

---

The FTC and a bipartisan group of 8 states have sued to stop the Kroger's / Albertson's merger. The merger would likely raise grocery prices and lower wages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/ftc-sues-to-block-kroger-s-24-6-billion-albertsons-acquisition

---

Kroger's and Albertsons should merge with Russia, who has far lower grocery prices than either chain.

There aren't inflationary measures in the unskilled / low wage job market outside of legally mandated minimum wage increases, such as Newsom's team raising California fast food workers to $20 an hour, except for his boy at Panera Bread.

If there were these phantom inflationary measures, why do democratic lawmakers feel so compelled to increase minimum wage?

Minimum wage rate increases in Los Angeles.

Effective Date. <25 26+
Jan. 1, 2018 $10.50 $11.00
Jan. 1, 2019 $11.00 $12.00
Jan. 1, 2020 $12.00 $13.00
Jan. 1, 2021 $13.00 $14.00
Jan. 1, 2022 $14.00 $15.00
Jan. 1, 2023 $15.50 $15.50


It is $17.04 now. We don't need an open border.

oski003 said:

---

There aren't inflationary measures in the unskilled / low wage job market outside of legally mandated minimum wage increases, such as Newsom's team raising California fast food workers to $20 an hour, except for his boy at Panera Bread.

If there were these phantom inflationary measures, why do democratic lawmakers feel so compelled to increase minimum wage?

Minimum wage rate increases in Los Angeles.

Effective Date. <25 26+
Jan. 1, 2018 $10.50 $11.00
Jan. 1, 2019 $11.00 $12.00
Jan. 1, 2020 $12.00 $13.00
Jan. 1, 2021 $13.00 $14.00
Jan. 1, 2022 $14.00 $15.00
Jan. 1, 2023 $15.50 $15.50


It is $17.04 now. We don't need an open border.

---

Panera's $20 per hour equals $41,600 per year while $17.04 per hour equals $35,400 per year. I don't think that's outrageous for full time employees, especially in the Los Angeles area. They probably have to live in their car to make ends meet.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

There aren't inflationary measures in the unskilled / low wage job market outside of legally mandated minimum wage increases, such as Newsom's team raising California fast food workers to $20 an hour, except for his boy at Panera Bread.

If there were these phantom inflationary measures, why do democratic lawmakers feel so compelled to increase minimum wage?

Minimum wage rate increases in Los Angeles.

Effective Date. <25 26+
Jan. 1, 2018 $10.50 $11.00
Jan. 1, 2019 $11.00 $12.00
Jan. 1, 2020 $12.00 $13.00
Jan. 1, 2021 $13.00 $14.00
Jan. 1, 2022 $14.00 $15.00
Jan. 1, 2023 $15.50 $15.50


It is $17.04 now. We don't need an open border.

---

Panera's $20 per hour equals $41,600 per year while $17.04 per hour equals $35,400 per year. I don't think that's outrageous for full time employees, especially in the Los Angeles area. They probably have to live in their car to make ends meet.

---

My post is very clear, and you have completely missed the point.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

There aren't inflationary measures in the unskilled / low wage job market outside of legally mandated minimum wage increases, such as Newsom's team raising California fast food workers to $20 an hour, except for his boy at Panera Bread.

If there were these phantom inflationary measures, why do democratic lawmakers feel so compelled to increase minimum wage?

Minimum wage rate increases in Los Angeles.

Effective Date. <25 26+
Jan. 1, 2018 $10.50 $11.00
Jan. 1, 2019 $11.00 $12.00
Jan. 1, 2020 $12.00 $13.00
Jan. 1, 2021 $13.00 $14.00
Jan. 1, 2022 $14.00 $15.00
Jan. 1, 2023 $15.50 $15.50


It is $17.04 now. We don't need an open border.

---

Panera's $20 per hour equals $41,600 per year while $17.04 per hour equals $35,400 per year. I don't think that's outrageous for full time employees, especially in the Los Angeles area. They probably have to live in their car to make ends meet.

---

I was speaking to your question about why democratic lawmakers are raising the minimum wage. The minimum wage salary is at government assistance eligible levels. Any inflation at all is devastating for people at those salary levels.

I'm ignoring your illegal immigrant comment because it's clear we don't have enough people to fill those minimum wage jobs.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

There aren't inflationary measures in the unskilled / low wage job market outside of legally mandated minimum wage increases, such as Newsom's team raising California fast food workers to $20 an hour, except for his boy at Panera Bread.

If there were these phantom inflationary measures, why do democratic lawmakers feel so compelled to increase minimum wage?

Minimum wage rate increases in Los Angeles.

Effective Date. <25 26+
Jan. 1, 2018 $10.50 $11.00
Jan. 1, 2019 $11.00 $12.00
Jan. 1, 2020 $12.00 $13.00
Jan. 1, 2021 $13.00 $14.00
Jan. 1, 2022 $14.00 $15.00
Jan. 1, 2023 $15.50 $15.50


It is $17.04 now. We don't need an open border.

---

Panera's $20 per hour equals $41,600 per year while $17.04 per hour equals $35,400 per year. I don't think that's outrageous for full time employees, especially in the Los Angeles area. They probably have to live in their car to make ends meet.

---

I was speaking to your question about why democratic lawmakers are raising the minimum wage. The minimum wage salary is at government assistance eligible levels. Any inflation at all is devastating for people at those salary levels.

I'm ignoring your illegal immigrant comment because it's clear we don't have enough people to fill those minimum wage jobs.

---

That's false. If there weren't enough people who wanted to fill those minimum wage jobs, the pay would go up until people would be willing to take them. We do have enough people to fill the minimum wage jobs, and pay is going up because of legislation.