kelly09 said:
I am happy to test this guy's theories in that manner as long as they stay the f@uck out of California.
You are in charge of Caifotnia? How and when did that happen?
What did Kimball write that bothered you so much? BTW, were you KO Hallinan's Law partner? You say some really radical *****
California, kiddo.kelly09 said:I am happy to test this guy's theories in that manner as long as they stay the f@uck out of California.bearister said:kelly09 said:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/
Well, I guess we get to test his theories when we see what happens to the citizenry of the states that are opening things up. A lot of the people in those states eat a lot of fatty foods so there will be plenty of corpulent hosts for the COVID 19. Hopefully tRump starts his rallies up again and his family attends them. I am happy to test this guy's theories in that manner as long as they stay the f@uck out of California.
If a guy looking like Roger rings my doorbell, I open the door and say "No" before he even starts his pitch.
You are in charge of Caifotnia? How and when did that happen?
What did Kimball write that bothered you so much? BTW, were you KO Hallinan's Law partner? You say some really radical *****
How about that? And all this time I doubted you owned a dictionary.kelly09 said:quarantineProfessor Henry Higgins said:I definitely think you should revolt against your government overlords and break quaranteen. I recommend as many public protests as it takes for you to make people see the truth of your great post.kelly09 said:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/
Having recently exercised my 2nd Amendment rights and upgraded my arsenal, I already have a plan to help them with social distancing protocols.bearister said:kelly09 said:
I am happy to test this guy's theories in that manner as long as they stay the f@uck out of California.
You are in charge of Caifotnia? How and when did that happen?
What did Kimball write that bothered you so much? BTW, were you KO Hallinan's Law partner? You say some really radical *****
My point is that if you are going to follow your "gut" (like tRump) instead of respected medical opinion and engage in reckless conduct you shouldn't then come into California, where most of us are sheltering, and shed your hillbilly virus cooties on us. Stay amongst your like minded morons so you only kill each other off. I would deny them medical treatment so they don't endanger healthcare professionals.* Just huck their 2nd Amendment spouting carcasses into a hole in a potter's field.*
* Defiant healthcare workers clash with anti-lockdown protesters in Colorado | Daily Mail Online
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8235127/Defiant-healthcare-workers-clash-anti-lockdown-protesters-Colorado.html
* If you are going to dedicate a post to correcting another commenter's spelling error, it doesn't look so good when you either hamfisted or drunk typed the word California.
Fourth grade spelling words shouldn't require a dictionary, PROFESSOR!Professor Henry Higgins said:How about that? And all this time I doubted you owned a dictionary.kelly09 said:quarantineProfessor Henry Higgins said:I definitely think you should revolt against your government overlords and break quaranteen. I recommend as many public protests as it takes for you to make people see the truth of your great post.kelly09 said:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/
Maybe the fourth grade education in Caifotnia is just better than in California.kelly09 said:Fourth grade spelling words shouldn't require a dictionary, PROFESSOR!Professor Henry Higgins said:How about that? And all this time I doubted you owned a dictionary.kelly09 said:quarantineProfessor Henry Higgins said:I definitely think you should revolt against your government overlords and break quaranteen. I recommend as many public protests as it takes for you to make people see the truth of your great post.kelly09 said:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/
OaktownBear said:Maybe the fourth grade education in Caifotnia is just better than in California.kelly09 said:Fourth grade spelling words shouldn't require a dictionary, PROFESSOR!Professor Henry Higgins said:How about that? And all this time I doubted you owned a dictionary.kelly09 said:quarantineProfessor Henry Higgins said:I definitely think you should revolt against your government overlords and break quaranteen. I recommend as many public protests as it takes for you to make people see the truth of your great post.kelly09 said:
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/18/a-deadly-if-dutiful-deference/
Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
If you come from a state that is going to prematurely lift the "shelter in place" advisement then I have some advice for you as someone who treats patients. STAY THE **** OUT OF CALIFORNIA! YOU NOT ONLY ARE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER, BUT YOU ARE ALSO PUTTING ME, MY COLLEAGUES, SUPPORT STAFF, SECURITY, THE PEOPLE WHO CLEAN, OTHER PATIENTS, AND OUR FAMILIES IN DANGER. IF YOU WANT TO ACT LIKE AN IDIOT AND POSSIBLY KILL YOURSELF THEN HAVE AT IT BUT DON'T SCREW IT UP FOR THE REST OF US WHO WILL BE TASKED WITH KEEPING YOU ALIVE BECAUSE YOU WERE A FREAKIN MORON AND COULDN'T STAY INSIDE UNTIL THIS VIRUS HAS PASSED.bearister said:kelly09 said:
I am happy to test this guy's theories in that manner as long as they stay the f@uck out of California.
You are in charge of Caifotnia? How and when did that happen?
What did Kimball write that bothered you so much? BTW, were you KO Hallinan's Law partner? You say some really radical *****
My point is that if you are going to follow your "gut" (like tRump) instead of respected medical opinion and engage in reckless conduct you shouldn't then come into California, where most of us are sheltering, and shed your hillbilly virus cooties on us. Stay amongst your like minded morons so you only kill each other off. I would deny them medical treatment so they don't endanger healthcare professionals.* Just huck their 2nd Amendment spouting carcasses into a hole in a potter's field.*
* Defiant healthcare workers clash with anti-lockdown protesters in Colorado | Daily Mail Online
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8235127/Defiant-healthcare-workers-clash-anti-lockdown-protesters-Colorado.html
* If you are going to dedicate a post to correcting another commenter's spelling error, it doesn't look so good when you either hamfisted or drunk typed the word California.
It's morbid, but yes that was also my thought. Better somewhere else tries this before my state does.Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
C'mon OTB, people aren't just looking at health. Dan Patrick says "there are more important things than living and that's saving this country."OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
I know this is a joke, but to use your joke to clarify my point, this is not like flipping a switch. Some of the health impacts of opening things up will be mitigated by the fact that many will voluntarily choose to continue to shelter in place or at least be very restricted in their social exposure, so we may not see the deaths go up as fast. And on the flip side, we wouldn't see the economy surge as much as people think either. They may very well increase the danger and not get much economic benefit for doing so. To open and stay open, a restaurant has to make enough money to justify the expense of being open. If they get a third of their usual business, that probably isn't enough.Unit2Sucks said:C'mon OTB, people aren't just looking at health. Dan Patrick says "there are more important things than living and that's saving this country."OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
That's different, right?
Yes of course. It's only a matter of time before Trump is on TV coaxing people to go to the "big beautiful" restaurants, malls, etc. Not unlike his professed desire to have people attend Easter services.OaktownBear said:I know this is a joke, but to use your joke to clarify my point, this is not like flipping a switch. Some of the health impacts of opening things up will be mitigated by the fact that many will voluntarily choose to continue to shelter in place or at least be very restricted in their social exposure, so we may not see the deaths go up as fast. And on the flip side, we wouldn't see the economy surge as much as people think either. They may very well increase the danger and not get much economic benefit for doing so. To open and stay open, a restaurant has to make enough money to justify the expense of being open. If they get a third of their usual business, that probably isn't enough.Unit2Sucks said:C'mon OTB, people aren't just looking at health. Dan Patrick says "there are more important things than living and that's saving this country."OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
That's different, right?
FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
wifeisafurd said:
A lot of retail simply will not come back -we are commercial landlords and most shuttered tenants will not make it if the quarantine lasts as long as some Governors are suggesting. Some tenants have given-up. Maybe this is me, but I'm not going to a restaurant, gym etc, for a long time, and I don't think I'm alone.
My main point, WIAF, is that whether we had social distancing orders or not, or we lift them or not, the number one thing the government can do for the economy is to make it safe for people to go out and travel,etc. I don't see that is happening.wifeisafurd said:FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
The economy is another story. From what I can see out of most government officials is they have plans on health considerations, but nothing to offer on economic recovery. Many households had little savings and a lot of debt and are very poorly positioned to deal with the impact of job loss. A lot of retail simply will not come back -we are commercial landlords and most shuttered tenants will not make it if the quarantine lasts as long as some Governors are suggesting. Some tenants have given-up. Maybe this is me, but I'm not going to a restaurant, gym etc, for a long time, and I don't think I'm alone. The tens of millions who lost their jobs during the pandemic will come out of it with little savings or debt, lower credit ratings, and more fear about the future. They are not exactly going on a shopping spree when the Governors get around to opening up business. Some of what the government is doingthe $1,200 per adult payments to households, the expansion of unemployment insurancewill partially offset that in some low cost states, but that isn't going to help all that much in expensive states.
States that engaged in large scale "social distancing" reduced consumer spending and workers' wages and, in turn, caused sales and income tax revenues to plummet. There is no real estate markets and real estate values have plummeted, meaning less property tax revenue, even in states with Prop. 13 like structures (there is Prop. 8 in California). Increases in unemployment will boost spending on unemployment insurance and make more people eligible for Medicaid, both of which state governments finance. Lower taxes and increased demands for funding will impose severe strains on state and local budgets. State and local governments have been spending way beyond their means, and unlike the Federal government they can't print money and have debt. The solution is a federal bail out, which seems unlikely, or massive cuts to non-essential services and layoffs, which doesn't help the economy, or massive tax increases, which is just wonderful for an economy in free fall.
Basically Oakbear asks if consumers can bring back the economy given fears over COVID. He certainly is speaking to me - I'm changing my behavior until way past when some politician thinks it is safe. Taking an even deeper dive, consumers, who have always been critical to the economy, are unlikely to be able to propel it forward once lockdown is officially dropped. I don't see any company related to travel getting business soon.
Until people feel sure about an effective vaccine and manageable treatment for the virus, they may be reluctant to travel or even to circulate as widely as they used to, producing lower levels of economic activity overall.
Small business already operating on thin margins are gone. There are no new commercial loans being written right now. Most companies are facing severe cash flow problems, with the obvious result with capital. A rapidly deteriorating job market will hurt consumers badly, and for many the damage will not be temporary, Unemployment will remain high for some time.
Many businesses that do survive will not regain the same vigor because they are dependent on strong consumer demand. Those who go back to work quickly are still likely to emerge from their experience of sheltering at home with less ability to resume spending at the same levels. Latest stats say large numbers of households are falling behind on major debt obligations, such as rent and mortgage (FED data hints Coronavirus May trigger US Housing Crash (San Francisco Federal Reserve Board, April 17, 2020 UTC), auto loans, and credit card bills. Many states said no foreclosures or collection actions, but they didn't say no abatement of debt (they can't legally), but when the orders go away, so go the protections.
And it is only going to get worse as lockdowns continue. Public officials think the are trying to balance health and safety with economic well-being. But if they don't show people a path to economic return, that decision will be simply taken away from them by wholesale non-compliance with executive orders. It is already starting.
Paragraph 1: I don't have that risk toleramnce, you may not, but others are different. Even when restaurants or travel open, those of us who are risk adverse are still not going. People will go to Vegas when it opens mid-March, but it will take Vegas a long, long time to bounce back. Which is kinda my point, which I think is consistency with your point. The other point I was making is there are other reason demand for good and services will be down even when things open-up.OaktownBear said:My main point, WIAF, is that whether we had social distancing orders or not, or we lift them or not, the number one thing the government can do for the economy is to make it safe for people to go out and travel,etc. I don't see that is happening.wifeisafurd said:FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
The economy is another story. From what I can see out of most government officials is they have plans on health considerations, but nothing to offer on economic recovery. Many households had little savings and a lot of debt and are very poorly positioned to deal with the impact of job loss. A lot of retail simply will not come back -we are commercial landlords and most shuttered tenants will not make it if the quarantine lasts as long as some Governors are suggesting. Some tenants have given-up. Maybe this is me, but I'm not going to a restaurant, gym etc, for a long time, and I don't think I'm alone. The tens of millions who lost their jobs during the pandemic will come out of it with little savings or debt, lower credit ratings, and more fear about the future. They are not exactly going on a shopping spree when the Governors get around to opening up business. Some of what the government is doingthe $1,200 per adult payments to households, the expansion of unemployment insurancewill partially offset that in some low cost states, but that isn't going to help all that much in expensive states.
States that engaged in large scale "social distancing" reduced consumer spending and workers' wages and, in turn, caused sales and income tax revenues to plummet. There is no real estate markets and real estate values have plummeted, meaning less property tax revenue, even in states with Prop. 13 like structures (there is Prop. 8 in California). Increases in unemployment will boost spending on unemployment insurance and make more people eligible for Medicaid, both of which state governments finance. Lower taxes and increased demands for funding will impose severe strains on state and local budgets. State and local governments have been spending way beyond their means, and unlike the Federal government they can't print money and have debt. The solution is a federal bail out, which seems unlikely, or massive cuts to non-essential services and layoffs, which doesn't help the economy, or massive tax increases, which is just wonderful for an economy in free fall.
Basically Oakbear asks if consumers can bring back the economy given fears over COVID. He certainly is speaking to me - I'm changing my behavior until way past when some politician thinks it is safe. Taking an even deeper dive, consumers, who have always been critical to the economy, are unlikely to be able to propel it forward once lockdown is officially dropped. I don't see any company related to travel getting business soon.
Until people feel sure about an effective vaccine and manageable treatment for the virus, they may be reluctant to travel or even to circulate as widely as they used to, producing lower levels of economic activity overall.
Small business already operating on thin margins are gone. There are no new commercial loans being written right now. Most companies are facing severe cash flow problems, with the obvious result with capital. A rapidly deteriorating job market will hurt consumers badly, and for many the damage will not be temporary, Unemployment will remain high for some time.
Many businesses that do survive will not regain the same vigor because they are dependent on strong consumer demand. Those who go back to work quickly are still likely to emerge from their experience of sheltering at home with less ability to resume spending at the same levels. Latest stats say large numbers of households are falling behind on major debt obligations, such as rent and mortgage (FED data hints Coronavirus May trigger US Housing Crash (San Francisco Federal Reserve Board, April 17, 2020 UTC), auto loans, and credit card bills. Many states said no foreclosures or collection actions, but they didn't say no abatement of debt (they can't legally), but when the orders go away, so go the protections.
And it is only going to get worse as lockdowns continue. Public officials think the are trying to balance health and safety with economic well-being. But if they don't show people a path to economic return, that decision will be simply taken away from them by wholesale non-compliance with executive orders. It is already starting.
And if people want to talk about, well all the vulnerable populations can social distance and the rest can go out, I'd point out that the vulnerable populations have most of the money in this country and spend the most on things like travel and restaurants.
Gotta say, I don't understand why white collar workers in your area are going to the office in the numbers you are seeing. A large percentage of white collar workers can do their jobs from home.
wifeisafurd said:Paragraph 1: I don't have that risk toleramnce, you may not, but others are different. Even when restaurants or travel open, those of us who are risk adverse are still not going. People will go to Vegas when it opens mid-March, but it will take Vegas a long, long time to bounce back. Which is kinda my point, which I think is consistency with your point. The other point I was making is there are other reason demand for good and services will be down even when things open-up.OaktownBear said:My main point, WIAF, is that whether we had social distancing orders or not, or we lift them or not, the number one thing the government can do for the economy is to make it safe for people to go out and travel,etc. I don't see that is happening.wifeisafurd said:FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
The economy is another story. From what I can see out of most government officials is they have plans on health considerations, but nothing to offer on economic recovery. Many households had little savings and a lot of debt and are very poorly positioned to deal with the impact of job loss. A lot of retail simply will not come back -we are commercial landlords and most shuttered tenants will not make it if the quarantine lasts as long as some Governors are suggesting. Some tenants have given-up. Maybe this is me, but I'm not going to a restaurant, gym etc, for a long time, and I don't think I'm alone. The tens of millions who lost their jobs during the pandemic will come out of it with little savings or debt, lower credit ratings, and more fear about the future. They are not exactly going on a shopping spree when the Governors get around to opening up business. Some of what the government is doingthe $1,200 per adult payments to households, the expansion of unemployment insurancewill partially offset that in some low cost states, but that isn't going to help all that much in expensive states.
States that engaged in large scale "social distancing" reduced consumer spending and workers' wages and, in turn, caused sales and income tax revenues to plummet. There is no real estate markets and real estate values have plummeted, meaning less property tax revenue, even in states with Prop. 13 like structures (there is Prop. 8 in California). Increases in unemployment will boost spending on unemployment insurance and make more people eligible for Medicaid, both of which state governments finance. Lower taxes and increased demands for funding will impose severe strains on state and local budgets. State and local governments have been spending way beyond their means, and unlike the Federal government they can't print money and have debt. The solution is a federal bail out, which seems unlikely, or massive cuts to non-essential services and layoffs, which doesn't help the economy, or massive tax increases, which is just wonderful for an economy in free fall.
Basically Oakbear asks if consumers can bring back the economy given fears over COVID. He certainly is speaking to me - I'm changing my behavior until way past when some politician thinks it is safe. Taking an even deeper dive, consumers, who have always been critical to the economy, are unlikely to be able to propel it forward once lockdown is officially dropped. I don't see any company related to travel getting business soon.
Until people feel sure about an effective vaccine and manageable treatment for the virus, they may be reluctant to travel or even to circulate as widely as they used to, producing lower levels of economic activity overall.
Small business already operating on thin margins are gone. There are no new commercial loans being written right now. Most companies are facing severe cash flow problems, with the obvious result with capital. A rapidly deteriorating job market will hurt consumers badly, and for many the damage will not be temporary, Unemployment will remain high for some time.
Many businesses that do survive will not regain the same vigor because they are dependent on strong consumer demand. Those who go back to work quickly are still likely to emerge from their experience of sheltering at home with less ability to resume spending at the same levels. Latest stats say large numbers of households are falling behind on major debt obligations, such as rent and mortgage (FED data hints Coronavirus May trigger US Housing Crash (San Francisco Federal Reserve Board, April 17, 2020 UTC), auto loans, and credit card bills. Many states said no foreclosures or collection actions, but they didn't say no abatement of debt (they can't legally), but when the orders go away, so go the protections.
And it is only going to get worse as lockdowns continue. Public officials think the are trying to balance health and safety with economic well-being. But if they don't show people a path to economic return, that decision will be simply taken away from them by wholesale non-compliance with executive orders. It is already starting.
And if people want to talk about, well all the vulnerable populations can social distance and the rest can go out, I'd point out that the vulnerable populations have most of the money in this country and spend the most on things like travel and restaurants.
Gotta say, I don't understand why white collar workers in your area are going to the office in the numbers you are seeing. A large percentage of white collar workers can do their jobs from home.
Paragraph 2: okay...
Paragraph 3. Can't speak to everyone. I can work primarily from home, but have to go in and get documents, checks, records, mail or other items from time to time. Not everything is electronic. But that doesn't explain the change.
I know accountants are overwhelmed and need to be near records, staff, etc. For some it may be simply impractical to work at home, they need support staff, the boss is not technical so in you go, work provides a refuge from the family, etc. I know with banks department rotate staff so you spend half your time at the office. They may want to go in to show they hard at work
Big C said:
Well, last week's downwardly-revised estimate of 60,000 US fatalities looks like it's going to have to be "unrevised", as we are already at 44,000, with some 2k+ added every day and not much sing of slowdown (yet). We would be passing the 60,000 mark right at the time that some of these states will be looking to open up.
I don't see our curves flattening too much yet, though it looks like the beginnings of it.
bearister said:Big C said:
Well, last week's downwardly-revised estimate of 60,000 US fatalities looks like it's going to have to be "unrevised", as we are already at 44,000, with some 2k+ added every day and not much sing of slowdown (yet). We would be passing the 60,000 mark right at the time that some of these states will be looking to open up.
I don't see our curves flattening too much yet, though it looks like the beginnings of it.
If the citizenry of tRump Country states start dropping like diseased elephants from COVAID 19 because they opened up too early, who do they blame?*
*Keep in mind that your response need bear no relationship to logic, science or even reality. Your answer doesn't even need to be responsive to the question. In fact , feel free to use your response to pivot to a diatribe of some sort.
Anarchistbear said:
Who else?
Agreed. Also small companies tend to have way more technical expertise up the Bay Area. There are tons of companies that simply don't have records prior to starting their document system on their computer system - that probably is not true in the Bay Area.OaktownBear said:wifeisafurd said:Paragraph 1: I don't have that risk toleramnce, you may not, but others are different. Even when restaurants or travel open, those of us who are risk adverse are still not going. People will go to Vegas when it opens mid-March, but it will take Vegas a long, long time to bounce back. Which is kinda my point, which I think is consistency with your point. The other point I was making is there are other reason demand for good and services will be down even when things open-up.OaktownBear said:My main point, WIAF, is that whether we had social distancing orders or not, or we lift them or not, the number one thing the government can do for the economy is to make it safe for people to go out and travel,etc. I don't see that is happening.wifeisafurd said:FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.OaktownBear said:Unit2Sucks said:
I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.
The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy
The economy is another story. From what I can see out of most government officials is they have plans on health considerations, but nothing to offer on economic recovery. Many households had little savings and a lot of debt and are very poorly positioned to deal with the impact of job loss. A lot of retail simply will not come back -we are commercial landlords and most shuttered tenants will not make it if the quarantine lasts as long as some Governors are suggesting. Some tenants have given-up. Maybe this is me, but I'm not going to a restaurant, gym etc, for a long time, and I don't think I'm alone. The tens of millions who lost their jobs during the pandemic will come out of it with little savings or debt, lower credit ratings, and more fear about the future. They are not exactly going on a shopping spree when the Governors get around to opening up business. Some of what the government is doingthe $1,200 per adult payments to households, the expansion of unemployment insurancewill partially offset that in some low cost states, but that isn't going to help all that much in expensive states.
States that engaged in large scale "social distancing" reduced consumer spending and workers' wages and, in turn, caused sales and income tax revenues to plummet. There is no real estate markets and real estate values have plummeted, meaning less property tax revenue, even in states with Prop. 13 like structures (there is Prop. 8 in California). Increases in unemployment will boost spending on unemployment insurance and make more people eligible for Medicaid, both of which state governments finance. Lower taxes and increased demands for funding will impose severe strains on state and local budgets. State and local governments have been spending way beyond their means, and unlike the Federal government they can't print money and have debt. The solution is a federal bail out, which seems unlikely, or massive cuts to non-essential services and layoffs, which doesn't help the economy, or massive tax increases, which is just wonderful for an economy in free fall.
Basically Oakbear asks if consumers can bring back the economy given fears over COVID. He certainly is speaking to me - I'm changing my behavior until way past when some politician thinks it is safe. Taking an even deeper dive, consumers, who have always been critical to the economy, are unlikely to be able to propel it forward once lockdown is officially dropped. I don't see any company related to travel getting business soon.
Until people feel sure about an effective vaccine and manageable treatment for the virus, they may be reluctant to travel or even to circulate as widely as they used to, producing lower levels of economic activity overall.
Small business already operating on thin margins are gone. There are no new commercial loans being written right now. Most companies are facing severe cash flow problems, with the obvious result with capital. A rapidly deteriorating job market will hurt consumers badly, and for many the damage will not be temporary, Unemployment will remain high for some time.
Many businesses that do survive will not regain the same vigor because they are dependent on strong consumer demand. Those who go back to work quickly are still likely to emerge from their experience of sheltering at home with less ability to resume spending at the same levels. Latest stats say large numbers of households are falling behind on major debt obligations, such as rent and mortgage (FED data hints Coronavirus May trigger US Housing Crash (San Francisco Federal Reserve Board, April 17, 2020 UTC), auto loans, and credit card bills. Many states said no foreclosures or collection actions, but they didn't say no abatement of debt (they can't legally), but when the orders go away, so go the protections.
And it is only going to get worse as lockdowns continue. Public officials think the are trying to balance health and safety with economic well-being. But if they don't show people a path to economic return, that decision will be simply taken away from them by wholesale non-compliance with executive orders. It is already starting.
And if people want to talk about, well all the vulnerable populations can social distance and the rest can go out, I'd point out that the vulnerable populations have most of the money in this country and spend the most on things like travel and restaurants.
Gotta say, I don't understand why white collar workers in your area are going to the office in the numbers you are seeing. A large percentage of white collar workers can do their jobs from home.
Paragraph 2: okay...
Paragraph 3. Can't speak to everyone. I can work primarily from home, but have to go in and get documents, checks, records, mail or other items from time to time. Not everything is electronic. But that doesn't explain the change.
I know accountants are overwhelmed and need to be near records, staff, etc. For some it may be simply impractical to work at home, they need support staff, the boss is not technical so in you go, work provides a refuge from the family, etc. I know with banks department rotate staff so you spend half your time at the office. They may want to go in to show they hard at work
Honestly I think some of the differences between SF and LA is the heavy influence of the tech industry in SF. There is absolutely no reason any document can't be electronic. None. Everything can be scanned into a database. If my company has paper copies of anything, I have no idea where they are. I was part of throwing out the last legal files years ago so the file room could be turned into a conference room and no one had looked at any files in there for years before that. Almost everyone takes electronic signatures. Etc. no one where I work is working on site and our business is not impacted. (Actually it is booming).
People were working from home all over the Bay Area well before shut down orders because it was easy to make that adjustment because many major employers are already set up that way.
