Reopen the economy?

81,514 Views | 756 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Unit2Sucks
Unit2Sucks
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OaktownBear said:


Trying to get to herd immunity fast to withstand subsequent waves is like burning your house down o prevent your house from burning down. Looking at the mortality rate in the New York study, you are looking at well over a million people dying to get to herd immunity. Buying time allows us to find treatments and techniques to lower the mortality rate.

Literally Italy reported its first death just over 2 months ago. That is barely any time. The medical community is learning everyday.
I would also add that we are still so early in this pandemic that the scientists haven't established whether or not herd immunity is even possible.

The WHO has been a well-documented flip-flopper, but as recently as a few days ago said that they couldn't confirm whether recovered people were immune from COVID. It could be possible that people who recover have lifetime immunity, a few months to a year of immunity, some in between amount of time or no immunity at all. Hopefully it's at least a few years worth and that immunity applies to everyone who's had it, not just cases that were symptomatic or serious. The US is doing a multi-year broad based survey to determine this very thing so it's obviously still very much an open question.

Given that we don't know whether herd immunity will even be possible, does anyone think it's prudent public health policy to allow the spread of the virus throughout the population? I'm not going to pretend like this is an extinction level event (although if it were to somehow mutate to be far more deadly, and recovered people had no immunity it certainly could become one) but it is a pandemic with high stakes and we should be careful before increasing our exposure to the virus. This is why we need a coordinated response with input from experts, and not politicians making decisions based on what they believe is in their best interests to get re-elected.

To put it into terms that may be more concrete: Imagine a politician who thinks that he or she has a 20% chance of getting re-elected due to the negative impact on the economy from a prudent response, but a 30% chance of getting re-elected from a reckless response (with a 60% chance the reckless response leads to hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths, or more. That's a perverse incentive that should not be a part of the decision-making process.

GBear4Life
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OaktownBear said:

Cave Bear said:

dimitrig said:

kelly09 said:

bearister said:


https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/25/post-hoc-vs-propter-hoc/

For you, Barrister

"In Sweden, a much milder regime of "mitigation" was enforced. Schools and bars and restaurants remained open. Large gatherings were prohibited. People were encouraged to (and did) practice social distancing. The elderly and ill were protected. The results? Almost indistinguishable from the results in Norway where a much stricter regime of mitigation was enforced."

Sweden deaths per capita: 212 per 1M
Norway deaths per capita: 37 per 1M
Finland deaths per capita: 34 per 1M
I expect countries that have a lockdown to have a lower deaths per capita than those that don't, but it should be noted that there's a Scandinavian country not listed above, Denmark. Their 74 deaths per 1M is twice Norway's and they began their national lockdown one day before Norway. Obviously lockdown status is not the only major factor determining deaths per capita.

It's also worth considering whether Sweden might be in a better position to withstand subsequent waves of the pandemic until a vaccine is developed and distributed on account of faster building of herd immunity.
Trying to get to herd immunity fast to withstand subsequent waves is like burning your house down o prevent your house from burning down. Looking at the mortality rate in the New York study, you are looking at well over a million people dying to get to herd immunity. Buying time allows us to find treatments and techniques to lower the mortality rate.

Literally Italy reported its first death just over 2 months ago. That is barely any time. The medical community is learning everyday.
SIP won't save a significant # of lives in totality unless you grant it two things: 1) that SIP will be forever 2) a vaccine is around the corner.

SIP was not meant to save lives in total, it was meant to avoid possibly unnecessary deaths due to hospital capacity and health care resources, as what happened in Italy where they were turning away infected patients.

SIP when resources are manageable is 100% unjustifiable.
Big C
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I basically agree with GB4L on this. As Dr. David Katz said on Bill Maher last Friday, there is a middle path and that is the one we should be on (or going towards, more precisely. Stay-at-home has surely been necessary, all things considered).

Pretty soon, we should begin opening SOME THINGS, while doing everything we can to avoid unnecessary risks. If cases start to spike again, then maybe we need to go back to stay-at-home for awhile. Over the next year, there will not just be a "second wave", there will be lots of waves, hopefully none so big that our health services are overwhelmed.

We are still woefully unprepared, but by June, we should be MUCH MORE ready, vis-a-vis testing, supplies, maybe even therapeutics.
bearister
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Because the average American is obese and we have a large aging population, the total death numbers for opening the corral would take on the optics of a eugenics experiment.
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BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C said:

I basically agree with GB4L on this. As Dr. David Katz said on Bill Maher last Friday, there is a middle path and that is the one we should be on.

Pretty soon, we should begin opening SOME THINGS, while doing everything we can to avoid unnecessary risks. If cases start to spike again, then maybe we need to go back to stay-at-home for awhile. Over the next year, there will not just be a "second wave", there will be lots of waves, hopefully none so big that our health services are overwhelmed.

We are still woefully unprepared, but by June, we should be MUCH MORE ready, vis-a-vis testing, supplies, maybe even therapeutics.
There absolutely is a middle path. We absolutely should be on it. Sheltering in place was not and is not intended to be a permanent solution. It was supposed to hit pause so government can get us on that middle path.

So the question is, are we moving to a middle path? Or are we just tired of shelter in place and just moving off shelter in place with very little difference.in where we were before? I don't love shelter in place any more than anyone else. My frustration is that we aren't doing any of the things that actually do work. Basically all we are doing is saying "I'm tired of Shelter in Place. Screw it. Just go herd immunity." Herd immunity is not an acceptable option. People flat out do not understand the numbers to get there.

1. Opening now is not based on anything but exasperation. The federal guidelines, which were pretty reasonable, were a downward trend for 14 days. California is on an UPWARD trend and that is with the Bay Area basically on a plateau. There is no data that makes what Southern California is doing make sense.

2. Wuhan broke the back of the thing with 11 weeks of shelter in place. Not 5.

3. There are easy things to do upon opening up that help out. Like requiring masks. Because I can't protect myself wearing a mask. I am protected by others. Very few places are requiring it. This was a big difference in South Korea. This was a big difference in 1918. How is this not happening?

4. Therapeutics - I hate to tell you, but nothing has come remotely close to working. We aren't close to a therapeutic.

5. There is no guarantee that herd immunity or a vaccine will even work. I don't know where people got the idea that you can only get a virus once. That is not always the case at all.

6. On supplies - really? What is the government doing to produce enough of a supply of N-95 masks. States are still fighting over supplies. We aren't even close on testing.

7. I don't know where the idea came from that the only way to stop the entire population to get a disease is to have a vaccine. There are ways to fight the spread of disease other than vaccines. Are we doing any of them? Basically, as I said elsewhere, it is like fighting a forest fire. You can stop it by putting it out with a quick response. You don't need to let the whole forest burn. And when there is a flare up, you put it out again. What we are doing now is saying "eh. we got 50% contain. Close enough".

Yes. There is a middle path. Are we doing anything to be on that path? Most of these places that are opening are not even taking the precautions that were taken in 1918.





bearister
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Harvard researchers have a plan to reopen the economy amid COVID-19. But it would require a huge national effort

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/27/havard-roadmap-pandemic-resilience-coronavirus
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golden sloth
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bearister said:

Because the average American is obese and we have a large aging population, the total death numbers for opening the corral would take on the optics of a eugenics experiment.
I don't know why I should have to sacrifice because other people are irresponsible with their weight. Kind of like how I don't see why I should have to inhale someone else's cigarette addiction. They made their choices, they need to live with them, I shouldn't incur their penalties.
GBear4Life
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What is the need to correlate testing kits with moving away from SIP? People will seek medical attention if they have symptoms. Symptomatic people are told to stay home whether SIP is in place or not. Not everyone who is infected will even seek a test or treatment. They will either bare it out like they would with the flu or they are asymptomatic. High risk folks or anybody who is scared can choose to continue a voluntary SIP. They are free to do this.

There will be a spike in cases of COVID when SIP is lifted compared to when SIP was active. This is inevitable no matter when it's lifted.

Reasonable stipulations around crowds and social distancing and hygiene should be advocated and continued. Non essential retailers and businesses that have been closed should be allowed to open and enforce social distancing, maximum numbe of people in building at a time, etc should they choose.

Waiting around for a number to hit before lifting SIP makes sense except the numbers are always going to be worse than reality because of the certainly significant but unknowable number of infected who aren't and won't seek treatment.

Relying on "experts" in an unwavering, dogmatic fashion is difficult given they can reasonably disagree, dispute the facts or draw different conclusions from said facts, or are demonstrably unreliable (WHO). Doing so is simply choosing to believe experts whose advice aligns with one's intuitions.
Big C
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OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

I basically agree with GB4L on this. As Dr. David Katz said on Bill Maher last Friday, there is a middle path and that is the one we should be on.

Pretty soon, we should begin opening SOME THINGS, while doing everything we can to avoid unnecessary risks. If cases start to spike again, then maybe we need to go back to stay-at-home for awhile. Over the next year, there will not just be a "second wave", there will be lots of waves, hopefully none so big that our health services are overwhelmed.

We are still woefully unprepared, but by June, we should be MUCH MORE ready, vis-a-vis testing, supplies, maybe even therapeutics.
There absolutely is a middle path. We absolutely should be on it. Sheltering in place was not and is not intended to be a permanent solution. It was supposed to hit pause so government can get us on that middle path.

So the question is, are we moving to a middle path? Or are we just tired of shelter in place and just moving off shelter in place with very little difference.in where we were before? I don't love shelter in place any more than anyone else. My frustration is that we aren't doing any of the things that actually do work. Basically all we are doing is saying "I'm tired of Shelter in Place. Screw it. Just go herd immunity." Herd immunity is not an acceptable option. People flat out do not understand the numbers to get there.

1. Opening now is not based on anything but exasperation. The federal guidelines, which were pretty reasonable, were a downward trend for 14 days. California is on an UPWARD trend and that is with the Bay Area basically on a plateau. There is no data that makes what Southern California is doing make sense.

2. Wuhan broke the back of the thing with 11 weeks of shelter in place. Not 5.

3. There are easy things to do upon opening up that help out. Like requiring masks. Because I can't protect myself wearing a mask. I am protected by others. Very few places are requiring it. This was a big difference in South Korea. This was a big difference in 1918. How is this not happening?

4. Therapeutics - I hate to tell you, but nothing has come remotely close to working. We aren't close to a therapeutic.

5. There is no guarantee that herd immunity or a vaccine will even work. I don't know where people got the idea that you can only get a virus once. That is not always the case at all.

6. On supplies - really? What is the government doing to produce enough of a supply of N-95 masks. States are still fighting over supplies. We aren't even close on testing.

7. I don't know where the idea came from that the only way to stop the entire population to get a disease is to have a vaccine. There are ways to fight the spread of disease other than vaccines. Are we doing any of them? Basically, as I said elsewhere, it is like fighting a forest fire. You can stop it by putting it out with a quick response. You don't need to let the whole forest burn. And when there is a flare up, you put it out again. What we are doing now is saying "eh. we got 50% contain. Close enough".

Yes. There is a middle path. Are we doing anything to be on that path? Most of these places that are opening are not even taking the precautions that were taken in 1918.







We are moving towards being ready for a middle path, albeit shamefully slowly and clumsily.

Yes, we are probably not close to therapeutics, but they have learned other things about how to treat the severe patients, such as more "proning" and oxygen, less ventilators. ICUs will need more dialysis capabilities, etc. I bet we have some therapeutics later this year, though nothing close to a panacea.

Yes the govt. has botched the ramping up of PPEs and testing, but we will be getting there.

Yes, there is no GUARANTEE about herd immunity or individual immunity via vaccine or already having the disease, but it would surprise most experts if it didn't happen. Sure the WHO can't CONFIRM that COVID-19 survivors will have some immunity, because it's too early to know for sure with SARS-CoV-2, but it is very likely. The questions are how long will the immunity last and how well it will work against related strains.

I was in a big Safeway this morning. Every customer and employee was wearing a mask, as they should be at this point.

By the end of May, we will have been sheltered in place for eleven weeks, same as Wuhan.

People won't be getting this virus on the beaches; they will be getting it in the nursing homes.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Big C said:

OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

I basically agree with GB4L on this. As Dr. David Katz said on Bill Maher last Friday, there is a middle path and that is the one we should be on.

Pretty soon, we should begin opening SOME THINGS, while doing everything we can to avoid unnecessary risks. If cases start to spike again, then maybe we need to go back to stay-at-home for awhile. Over the next year, there will not just be a "second wave", there will be lots of waves, hopefully none so big that our health services are overwhelmed.

We are still woefully unprepared, but by June, we should be MUCH MORE ready, vis-a-vis testing, supplies, maybe even therapeutics.
There absolutely is a middle path. We absolutely should be on it. Sheltering in place was not and is not intended to be a permanent solution. It was supposed to hit pause so government can get us on that middle path.

So the question is, are we moving to a middle path? Or are we just tired of shelter in place and just moving off shelter in place with very little difference.in where we were before? I don't love shelter in place any more than anyone else. My frustration is that we aren't doing any of the things that actually do work. Basically all we are doing is saying "I'm tired of Shelter in Place. Screw it. Just go herd immunity." Herd immunity is not an acceptable option. People flat out do not understand the numbers to get there.

1. Opening now is not based on anything but exasperation. The federal guidelines, which were pretty reasonable, were a downward trend for 14 days. California is on an UPWARD trend and that is with the Bay Area basically on a plateau. There is no data that makes what Southern California is doing make sense.

2. Wuhan broke the back of the thing with 11 weeks of shelter in place. Not 5.

3. There are easy things to do upon opening up that help out. Like requiring masks. Because I can't protect myself wearing a mask. I am protected by others. Very few places are requiring it. This was a big difference in South Korea. This was a big difference in 1918. How is this not happening?

4. Therapeutics - I hate to tell you, but nothing has come remotely close to working. We aren't close to a therapeutic.

5. There is no guarantee that herd immunity or a vaccine will even work. I don't know where people got the idea that you can only get a virus once. That is not always the case at all.

6. On supplies - really? What is the government doing to produce enough of a supply of N-95 masks. States are still fighting over supplies. We aren't even close on testing.

7. I don't know where the idea came from that the only way to stop the entire population to get a disease is to have a vaccine. There are ways to fight the spread of disease other than vaccines. Are we doing any of them? Basically, as I said elsewhere, it is like fighting a forest fire. You can stop it by putting it out with a quick response. You don't need to let the whole forest burn. And when there is a flare up, you put it out again. What we are doing now is saying "eh. we got 50% contain. Close enough".

Yes. There is a middle path. Are we doing anything to be on that path? Most of these places that are opening are not even taking the precautions that were taken in 1918.







We are moving towards being ready for a middle path, albeit shamefully slowly and clumsily.

Yes, we are probably not close to therapeutics, but they have learned other things about how to treat the severe patients, such as more "proning" and oxygen, less ventilators. ICUs will need more dialysis capabilities, etc. I bet we have some therapeutics later this year, though nothing close to a panacea.

Yes the govt. has botched the ramping up of PPEs and testing, but we will be getting there.

Yes, there is no GUARANTEE about herd immunity or individual immunity via vaccine or already having the disease, but it would surprise most experts if it didn't happen. Sure the WHO can't CONFIRM that COVID-19 survivors will have some immunity, because it's too early to know for sure with SARS-CoV-2, but it is very likely. The questions are how long will the immunity last and how well it will work against related strains.

I was in a big Safeway this morning. Every customer and employee was wearing a mask, as they should be at this point.

By the end of May, we will have been sheltered in place for eleven weeks, same as Wuhan.

People won't be getting this virus on the beaches; they will be getting it in the nursing homes.


To be clear, you said you agreed with the guy who is criticizing the Bay Area extension and wants to open now. If you are saying we should be ready on May 31, we aren't in disagreement. Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
Big C
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OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

OaktownBear said:

Big C said:

I basically agree with GB4L on this. As Dr. David Katz said on Bill Maher last Friday, there is a middle path and that is the one we should be on.

Pretty soon, we should begin opening SOME THINGS, while doing everything we can to avoid unnecessary risks. If cases start to spike again, then maybe we need to go back to stay-at-home for awhile. Over the next year, there will not just be a "second wave", there will be lots of waves, hopefully none so big that our health services are overwhelmed.

We are still woefully unprepared, but by June, we should be MUCH MORE ready, vis-a-vis testing, supplies, maybe even therapeutics.
There absolutely is a middle path. We absolutely should be on it. Sheltering in place was not and is not intended to be a permanent solution. It was supposed to hit pause so government can get us on that middle path.

So the question is, are we moving to a middle path? Or are we just tired of shelter in place and just moving off shelter in place with very little difference.in where we were before? I don't love shelter in place any more than anyone else. My frustration is that we aren't doing any of the things that actually do work. Basically all we are doing is saying "I'm tired of Shelter in Place. Screw it. Just go herd immunity." Herd immunity is not an acceptable option. People flat out do not understand the numbers to get there.

1. Opening now is not based on anything but exasperation. The federal guidelines, which were pretty reasonable, were a downward trend for 14 days. California is on an UPWARD trend and that is with the Bay Area basically on a plateau. There is no data that makes what Southern California is doing make sense.

2. Wuhan broke the back of the thing with 11 weeks of shelter in place. Not 5.

3. There are easy things to do upon opening up that help out. Like requiring masks. Because I can't protect myself wearing a mask. I am protected by others. Very few places are requiring it. This was a big difference in South Korea. This was a big difference in 1918. How is this not happening?

4. Therapeutics - I hate to tell you, but nothing has come remotely close to working. We aren't close to a therapeutic.

5. There is no guarantee that herd immunity or a vaccine will even work. I don't know where people got the idea that you can only get a virus once. That is not always the case at all.

6. On supplies - really? What is the government doing to produce enough of a supply of N-95 masks. States are still fighting over supplies. We aren't even close on testing.

7. I don't know where the idea came from that the only way to stop the entire population to get a disease is to have a vaccine. There are ways to fight the spread of disease other than vaccines. Are we doing any of them? Basically, as I said elsewhere, it is like fighting a forest fire. You can stop it by putting it out with a quick response. You don't need to let the whole forest burn. And when there is a flare up, you put it out again. What we are doing now is saying "eh. we got 50% contain. Close enough".

Yes. There is a middle path. Are we doing anything to be on that path? Most of these places that are opening are not even taking the precautions that were taken in 1918.







We are moving towards being ready for a middle path, albeit shamefully slowly and clumsily.

Yes, we are probably not close to therapeutics, but they have learned other things about how to treat the severe patients, such as more "proning" and oxygen, less ventilators. ICUs will need more dialysis capabilities, etc. I bet we have some therapeutics later this year, though nothing close to a panacea.

Yes the govt. has botched the ramping up of PPEs and testing, but we will be getting there.

Yes, there is no GUARANTEE about herd immunity or individual immunity via vaccine or already having the disease, but it would surprise most experts if it didn't happen. Sure the WHO can't CONFIRM that COVID-19 survivors will have some immunity, because it's too early to know for sure with SARS-CoV-2, but it is very likely. The questions are how long will the immunity last and how well it will work against related strains.

I was in a big Safeway this morning. Every customer and employee was wearing a mask, as they should be at this point.

By the end of May, we will have been sheltered in place for eleven weeks, same as Wuhan.

People won't be getting this virus on the beaches; they will be getting it in the nursing homes.


To be clear, you said you agreed with the guy who is criticizing the Bay Area extension and wants to open now. If you are saying we should be ready on May 31, we aren't in disagreement. Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.

Oh gosh, any time from next week (as originally planned) until the beginning of June seems about right... whatever the experts think, as long as it's gradual and with the social distancing precautions. If somebody else was for last week (after 5 weeks), that seems like too early.

My point is, gradual, with an emphasis on the more essential, with precautions, okay. Willy-nilly, no...

And please nobody show me a photo of a beach somewhere with 1/4 mile depth of field to make it look like people are packed in like sardines and use that to tell me my kids and I can't be on a beach in San Mateo County on a weekday when nobody is within 100 yds of us.
GBear4Life
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OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable
LMK5
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I'm puzzled by some things being said here. The federal government doesn't "make" anything. They can use the law to force manufacturers to produce things, which has been done. GM and Ford are producing ventilators, not cars. 3M ramped up mask production very early on. Offshoring of our industries had a benefit, but now we're seeing the pronounced downside of that. The feds can't solve that in weeks or months. China's hoarding of PPE and selling it to us at high prices doesn't help either.

Sweden is no longer the favored child of the MSM. They've gone their own way on this and they've now become the redheaded stepchild. Their health score, according to covidly.com is a "7." The US just went from a "6" to a "7" this morning. The notable difference? No lockdown in Sweden. Their ability to live while we hunker down really bothers some people. No one wants to give them any credit for attaining the same results without the economic damage the locked down nations are experiencing. We should wonder why.

Does keeping apart really work that well? Go into any Home Depot, Costco, or grocery store and they are crowded all day long. Sure, there are some measures like most people wearing masks, the urging of people to stay 6 feet apart, etc. But it's not really happening. Is there any data to show weather Costco, Home Depot, and grocery store workers are getting the disease at higher rates than the population in general? If they were, you certainly would have heard it by now. That would be headline news.

Remember just a few weeks ago how officials were urging retired health care workers to come back and work? Remember how they were allowing people who had not yet received their medical licenses to work in the hospitals? Well, now hospitals and clinics are laying off health care workers and putting entire floors in moth balls. What politician is going to get up there and say, "Well, we overstated the need a little, thank you for your selfless service, but please go back to what you were doing because we need to keep our licensed health care workers employed." Haven't heard Cuomo say that, right?

From my perspective, the great majority are hoping that Texas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and others fail miserably with their reopening plans. Have we examined why people feel this way? It's as if you get only one shot at locking down and if you guess wrong you're hosed for life. BS.

Waiting for a vaccine? Do we have an effective vaccine for any coronavirus? We haven't even licked the common cold, also a coronavirus. What are the odds of success?

In other news, my niece received a stimulus check ... she lives in London.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
Unit2Sucks
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Sweden is the size of the Bay Area and has 10x the deaths so far. I have no plans to relocate to Sweden but wouldn't have an issue with anyone who chooses to. EDIT: should also have noted that Sweden isn't projected ot peak for another 3 weeks according to the IHME model which predicts 14k+ dead there. That's almost 10x what they are projecting for California, a state with 4x the population of Sweden. On a per capita basis, IHME is predicting Sweden to suffer like 3-5x more deaths than Italy and Spain.

The economic impacts of COVID are devastating in the US but what I continue to not understand is the people who think that if we end the lockdown everything will be fine. Life isn't going to return to normal. Restaurants at half capacity are still in trouble. Mass events won't be happening, etc.

What we all knew was going to happen is that the success of the SIP orders would bring out all the naysayers who claimed the whole thing was a hoax. Everyone should be happy that the SIP prevented their state from looking like Italy or Spain. Had we done this even earlier we would be South Korea but instead we have 25% of the world's fatalities despite having the most resources.
dimitrig
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GBear4Life said:

OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable

When we can buy N95 respirators at a reasonable price then we have enough masks. I will even go so far as to define a reasonable price as $5 per mask. Before this mess a box of 20 was $20 at Home Depot.

When everyone who wants to be tested can be tested and we make it mandatory to test everyone that a person who is positive comes into contact with then we have a commitment to testing.




dimitrig
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LMK5 said:

In other news, my niece received a stimulus check ... she lives in London.

My aunt lives in The Netherlands and has for decades, but she is a SS recipient from the time she lived in the US.

I am not sure she received any money yet, but she hadn't heard anything about it until my mom told her. I guess she'll be stimulating the Dutch economy.

GBear4Life
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Unit2Sucks said:


The economic impacts of COVID are devastating in the US but what I continue to not understand is the people who think that if we end the lockdown everything will be fine. Life isn't going to return to normal. Restaurants at half capacity are still in trouble. Mass events won't be happening, etc.
Nobody here is saying this. You're presenting a strawman.



Quote:

What we all knew was going to happen is that the success of the SIP orders would bring out all the naysayers who claimed the whole thing was a hoax. Everyone should be happy that the SIP prevented their state from looking like Italy or Spain. Had we done this even earlier we would be South Korea but instead we have 25% of the world's fatalities despite having the most resources.
By this logic we shouldn't lift SIP until a vaccine is created and administered to everybody. That means SIP indefinitely. This is why people don't like it and also find it an absurd balancing of risk.

Nobody is saying it's a hoax. Another strawman.

With SIP you are postponing deaths, not saving them. The lives you are saving are the lives that couldn't be saved due to an overburdened health care system, not transmission.

The argument sensible people are pushing back on is the extreme commitment to the SIP must continue narrative while claiming anybody opposed is into conspiracies or objectively mistaken, and while either being vague about what needs to be observed for their "approval" to lift SIP or that threshold being unattainable even after a prolonged SIP.

The "lives saved" argument is invalid. Any country lifting SIP will add to the infection and death toll no matter when they lift it. The question is the cure worse than the disease here, so to speak.
GBear4Life
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dimitrig said:

GBear4Life said:

OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable

When we can buy N95 respirators at a reasonable price then we have enough masks. I will even go so far as to define a reasonable price as $5 per mask. Before this mess a box of 20 was $20 at Home Depot.

When everyone who wants to be tested can be tested and we make it mandatory to test everyone that a person who is positive comes into contact with then we have a commitment to testing.
lol so SIP indefinitely then?

Again, how is testing a key variable in lifting SIP? Obviously more testing = more data which is always better than less data.

It's not medicine. It doesn't change the prescribed behavior. If you have flu like symptoms, the direction is to isolate. If you test positive, the direction is the same. If you're really sick, you go to the hospital whether you're confirmed positive or not. The direction is already for people to operate as though they are infected if they're sick. Most people who have it are toughing it out at home (I mean who wants to go get tested around sick people just to confirm you might have it?). For asymptomatic, it doesn't matter. They're not getting tested whether tests are available or not.

Again, this is why the militant SIPers are absurd and more and more people are getting wise to it.
dimitrig
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GBear4Life said:

dimitrig said:

GBear4Life said:

OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable

When we can buy N95 respirators at a reasonable price then we have enough masks. I will even go so far as to define a reasonable price as $5 per mask. Before this mess a box of 20 was $20 at Home Depot.

When everyone who wants to be tested can be tested and we make it mandatory to test everyone that a person who is positive comes into contact with then we have a commitment to testing.
lol so SIP indefinitely then?

Again, how is testing a key variable in lifting SIP? Obviously more testing = more data which is always better than less data.

It's not medicine. It doesn't change the prescribed behavior. If you have flu like symptoms, the direction is to isolate. If you test positive, the direction is the same. If you're really sick, you go to the hospital whether you're confirmed positive or not. The direction is already for people to operate as though they are infected if they're sick. Most people who have it are toughing it out at home (I mean who wants to go get tested around sick people just to confirm you might have it?). For asymptomatic, it doesn't matter. They're not getting tested whether tests are available or not.

Again, this is why the militant SIPers are absurd and more and more people are getting wise to it.

No, not SIP indefinitely. Is it that hard to manufacture masks and tests? If so, this country is in bad shape.

Testing is a key variable because it means that when you go to a restaurant and the waiter tests positive then the entire staff can be tested and everyone who was dining there that night can be tested as well. If any of those people test positive you test the people they came into contact with as well. That is how you "open up the economy" safely. If China and Korea can do that why can't we?





AunBear89
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dimitrig said:

GBear4Life said:

dimitrig said:

GBear4Life said:

OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable

When we can buy N95 respirators at a reasonable price then we have enough masks. I will even go so far as to define a reasonable price as $5 per mask. Before this mess a box of 20 was $20 at Home Depot.

When everyone who wants to be tested can be tested and we make it mandatory to test everyone that a person who is positive comes into contact with then we have a commitment to testing.
lol so SIP indefinitely then?

Again, how is testing a key variable in lifting SIP? Obviously more testing = more data which is always better than less data.

It's not medicine. It doesn't change the prescribed behavior. If you have flu like symptoms, the direction is to isolate. If you test positive, the direction is the same. If you're really sick, you go to the hospital whether you're confirmed positive or not. The direction is already for people to operate as though they are infected if they're sick. Most people who have it are toughing it out at home (I mean who wants to go get tested around sick people just to confirm you might have it?). For asymptomatic, it doesn't matter. They're not getting tested whether tests are available or not.

Again, this is why the militant SIPers are absurd and more and more people are getting wise to it.

No, not SIP indefinitely. Is it that hard to manufacture masks and tests? If so, this country is in bad shape.

Testing is a key variable because it means that when you go to a restaurant and the waiter tests positive then the entire staff can be tested and everyone who was dining there that night can be tested as well. If any of those people test positive you test the people they came into contact with as well. That is how you "open up the economy" safely. If China and Korea can do that why can't we?







Because Trump.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
bearister
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This has been posted multiple times:

Harvard researchers: U.S. needs 20 million COVID-19 tests a day to reopen | Boston.com


https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/27/havard-roadmap-pandemic-resilience-coronavirus
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Big C
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GBear4Life said:

dimitrig said:

GBear4Life said:

OaktownBear said:




Hell, we should be ready now but that required the federal government making a commitment to test and mask production and they just said private sector will fix it.
How would more masks and a commitment to testing (what is a "lack of commitment to testing"?) make opening now justifiable

When we can buy N95 respirators at a reasonable price then we have enough masks. I will even go so far as to define a reasonable price as $5 per mask. Before this mess a box of 20 was $20 at Home Depot.

When everyone who wants to be tested can be tested and we make it mandatory to test everyone that a person who is positive comes into contact with then we have a commitment to testing.
lol so SIP indefinitely then?

Again, how is testing a key variable in lifting SIP? Obviously more testing = more data which is always better than less data.

It's not medicine. It doesn't change the prescribed behavior. If you have flu like symptoms, the direction is to isolate. If you test positive, the direction is the same. If you're really sick, you go to the hospital whether you're confirmed positive or not. The direction is already for people to operate as though they are infected if they're sick. Most people who have it are toughing it out at home (I mean who wants to go get tested around sick people just to confirm you might have it?). For asymptomatic, it doesn't matter. They're not getting tested whether tests are available or not.

Again, this is why the militant SIPers are absurd and more and more people are getting wise to it.

Easy, convenient, rapid-result testing, along with contact tracing, can be somewhat effective at limiting transmission, especially with this virus, where the severity of symptoms is all along the spectrum.

AunBear89
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bearister said:

This has been posted multiple times:

Harvard researchers: U.S. needs 20 million COVID-19 tests a day to reopen | Boston.com


https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/27/havard-roadmap-pandemic-resilience-coronavirus


That's it - we're screwed. With this clown-car administration running things, we'll be lucky to get 20,000 tests a day.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
dimitrig
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AunBear89 said:

dimitrig said:



No, not SIP indefinitely. Is it that hard to manufacture masks and tests? If so, this country is in bad shape.

Testing is a key variable because it means that when you go to a restaurant and the waiter tests positive then the entire staff can be tested and everyone who was dining there that night can be tested as well. If any of those people test positive you test the people they came into contact with as well. That is how you "open up the economy" safely. If China and Korea can do that why can't we?







Because Trump.

No kidding.

I also want to add that responsible corporations and small business owners will be doing this anyway, regardless of what any state or local government says.

We had our first employee test positive despite the requirement to wear masks at work. According to the employee, the infection likely occurred offsite. All buildings that employee worked in (and there were a few since probable infection on April 10) have been disinfected and all employees who worked in those buildings have been now been banned from the campus for 14 days. Luckily (not luckily, but by design) it is not near as many people as it might have been, say, a year ago.

This is what an "open" economy looks like. I mean, those people were all working. Now they are all at home for at least 2 weeks because someone got sick offsite. I don't think this is what Republicans think of when they think "open economy" but it is what will happen regardless unless one happens to work for a crappy employer like Tyson Foods.

That is why masks and testing are so important to reopening the economy.






BearlyCareAnymore
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Quote:

I'm puzzled by some things being said here. The federal government doesn't "make" anything. They can use the law to force manufacturers to produce things, which has been done. GM and Ford are producing ventilators, not cars. 3M ramped up mask production very early on. Offshoring of our industries had a benefit, but now we're seeing the pronounced downside of that. The feds can't solve that in weeks or months. China's hoarding of PPE and selling it to us at high prices doesn't help either.
The federal government hasn't forced anything. It is funny that you claim 3M ramped up production when the President specifically criticized them by name for not cooperating. No the government doesn't make anything. In times of crisis they can coordinate and require the production of necessary items. They have not done that to any extent acceptable. They have spent a lot more effort diverting shipments that states secured to a federal source which helps no one.


Quote:

Sweden is no longer the favored child of the MSM. They've gone their own way on this and they've now become the redheaded stepchild.
Sweden is no longer the satan of the right wing media. They've gone their own way on this and now they are the poster child.

See what I did there?



Quote:

Their health score, according to covidly.com is a "7." The US just went from a "6" to a "7" this morning.
Covidly is not a medical or health or in any way scientific site. Covidly is literally a dude named Alexey who had time on his hands. His "health score" is a simple formula he threw together. It has proven very unreliable as any kind of useful metric once the numbers get to a certain point. Further, anything based on number of cases is problematic because that number is highly influenced by testing. 50% of his number is based on new cases. 20% is based on recoveries. Both of those numbers are highly questionable. Sweden has a very low test rate. less than 2/3 of the US. So their case numbers are low. Look at their death numbers. Covidly has great stats otherwise. He's done an amazing job. And if you looked at the actual numbers, your portrayal of Sweden as a success is laughable.

Quote:


The notable difference? No lockdown in Sweden. Their ability to live while we hunker down really bothers some people. No one wants to give them any credit for attaining the same results without the economic damage the locked down nations are experiencing. We should wonder why


Sweden's death's per capita is at 228 and skyrocketing. Ours is 175 even though our first death was weeks before theirs. Denmark is 75. Norway is 38. Finland is 36. What we should wonder is why you are taking a lame, subjective measurement like health score, when deaths per capita is staring you in the face. They did not attain the same results. They are not as far along their curve as we are AND their numbers are already significantly worse than ours and tragically worse than demographically similar neighbors

As for the economic damage, there is a big misconception on both sides about what is going on in Sweden. Lack of mandatory measures is not the whole story. They are advising social distancing measures. They think most people will do it voluntarily. Mobile phone data shows significantly decreased movement. Economically, their government economic agency is predicting the same level of economic contraction that ours is. They said:


Quote:

Concern about infection and official advice on limiting social contact are putting a major damper on household demand
Sweden does not have a flourishing economy. So I would put this back on you. Sweden has not issued mandatory lockdowns, has experienced a significantly higher rate of death, and has the same economic damage that we have. We should wonder why.

Quote:

Does keeping apart really work that well? Go into any Home Depot, Costco, or grocery store and they are crowded all day long. Sure, there are some measures like most people wearing masks, the urging of people to stay 6 feet apart, etc. But it's not really happening. Is there any data to show weather Costco, Home Depot, and grocery store workers are getting the disease at higher rates than the population in general? If they were, you certainly would have heard it by now. That would be headline news.
You really think that in the 6 weeks since our numbers took off, with all the important studies and research that they are trying to do, when they are just now getting antibody studies in the field that ANYBODY has had the ability to do an extremely parsed study on grocery store workers? I'll flip it back on you. If there was a study demonstrating that they have no higher rate of infection, you would have heard about it. And you'd be posting it. That would be headline news for all those trying to open up the economy. Fact is there is no study either way.

Not to mention, Instacart is slammed. Do you deny that? That is because people are not going to the store. The number of individuals going to the store is way down.

Quote:

Remember just a few weeks ago how officials were urging retired health care workers to come back and work? Remember how they were allowing people who had not yet received their medical licenses to work in the hospitals? Well, now hospitals and clinics are laying off health care workers and putting entire floors in moth balls. What politician is going to get up there and say, "Well, we overstated the need a little, thank you for your selfless service, but please go back to what you were doing because we need to keep our licensed health care workers employed." Haven't heard Cuomo say that, right?
So, unlike the federal government, some state governments prepare for multiple contingencies in case social distancing doesn't work as well as hoped, since they didn't know how well those policies worked. You think that is a problem? I always like my government preparing for best case scenario and then getting caught with its pants down.


Quote:

From my perspective, the great majority are hoping that Texas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and others fail miserably with their reopening plans. Have we examined why people feel this way? It's as if you get only one shot at locking down and if you guess wrong you're hosed for life. BS.
Stop. Just stop. Criticizing policy doesn't equal hoping people fail. This is a lame argument. Have we examined why some conservative media jumped all over a false story that the Bay Area is doing well because it developed herd immunity while not knowing it and not because the damned liberal local governments got it right.

This is the equivalent to Pollyanna's arguing that anyone criticizing the current coach wants Cal to lose. Just stop.

Quote:

Waiting for a vaccine? Do we have an effective vaccine for any coronavirus? We haven't even licked the common cold, also a coronavirus. What are the odds of success?
Yeah, love this bit of ignorance circulating right wing media.

The common cold is not a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are a few among the many, many types of virus, many that haven't been identified, that cause a group of symptoms colloquially called the common cold. The common cold is not a specific virus. We do not have a vaccine for any coronavirus that causes the common cold because there would be no point. There would still be a ton more viruses causing colds and as soon as you made a vaccine for one, you'd have to swat down new ones like we do with the flu and the common cold isn't that bad to justify it. We won't have a cure for the common cold until we could somehow create a universal antivirus vaccine and that would run into the difficulty of having to distinguish between bad viruses and beneficial viruses that we actually need, so, probably impossible. Getting a vaccine for this coronavirus may or may not happen, but not having a vaccine for the common cold has absolutely nothing to do with it.
bearister
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"Offshoring of our industries had a benefit, but now we're seeing the pronounced downside of that."

The benefit: If you are The Liege Lord of Oregon you get to outsource the production of your $200 tennis shoes so you only have to pay a worker $50/month to make a truckload of them instead of paying an American worker a living wage. By making an immoral and unethical level of profit The Liege Lord gets to amass a personal fortune of $36 billion instead of several billion.

tRumpist rebuttal: Phil Knight is actually a great humanitarian because if it wasn't for the $50/month he is paying Southeast Asians to make shipping containers full of $200 tennis shoes, they wouldn't be making any money. Furthermore, if he paid them more then they would be making as much as engineers and doctors make in those countries and that would upset their entire economic system. I guess I was wrong, Phil Knight is a true altruist.
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dimitrig
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One thing we have been considering in return to work is doing one week in the office alternating with two weeks out of the office. We'd split the workforce into three cohorts so that one third would be in the office at a given time. We didn't invent the idea, but I can't find the source of who did right now.

The idea is that no more than a third of the workforce can be exposed at a given time and the two weeks out of the office is in effect a mandatory quarantine. It seems to be a good way to manage a large workforce without needing to test so many people all the time.

However, a lot of our employees can telecommute so we can do this without completely killing productivity. Other businesses can adopt a similar model, but they'd obviously suffer reduced productivity. That might be better than zero, though. Rental car companies are doing something similar by closing locations and opening them later only to close them again. They direct their customers to the open locations.




Unit2Sucks
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dimitrig said:


One thing we have been considering in return to work is doing one week in the office alternating with two weeks out of the office. We'd split the workforce into three cohorts so that one third would be in the office at a given time.





On the one hand: neat idea. On the other: why bother?

The business I work for has been very well set up for remote work. We are a pure technology company so the benefits to in-person work are largely cultural and for marginal productivity reasons. It's nice to be able to walk down the hall and talk to someone, rather than schedule a zoom meeting. There are some benefits to having a bunch of people in the same space. Culturally, it's nice to be able to grab lunch together, do all-hands, etc.

Moving to a system where 1/3 or 1/2 of the office is remote kills almost all of those benefits. Given how much we spend on office space and what we are realizing about the true impact of remote work on our business (for better or for worse), we are considering drastically reducing our office space footprint and moving from a "remote work is permitted" to a "remote work is encouraged" business.

I expect a lot of businesses are seeing the same things we are. The downstream impacts on commercial real estate and other businesses that benefit from central business districts - eg all of the restaurants and other providers that service the workers - will be challenging for certain segments of our economy although they will present opportunities for others.
bearister
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If you are a medical professional in New York you have to ask yourself this question: "Why should I risk my life trying to save these knuckleheads?"

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dimitrig
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Unit2Sucks said:

dimitrig said:


One thing we have been considering in return to work is doing one week in the office alternating with two weeks out of the office. We'd split the workforce into three cohorts so that one third would be in the office at a given time.





On the one hand: neat idea. On the other: why bother?

The business I work for has been very well set up for remote work. We are a pure technology company so the benefits to in-person work are largely cultural and for marginal productivity reasons. It's nice to be able to walk down the hall and talk to someone, rather than schedule a zoom meeting. There are some benefits to having a bunch of people in the same space. Culturally, it's nice to be able to grab lunch together, do all-hands, etc.

Moving to a system where 1/3 or 1/2 of the office is remote kills almost all of those benefits. Given how much we spend on office space and what we are realizing about the true impact of remote work on our business (for better or for worse), we are considering drastically reducing our office space footprint and moving from a "remote work is permitted" to a "remote work is encouraged" business.

I expect a lot of businesses are seeing the same things we are. The downstream impacts on commercial real estate and other businesses that benefit from central business districts - eg all of the restaurants and other providers that service the workers - will be challenging for certain segments of our economy although they will present opportunities for others.

I am not suggesting this be permanent but only as a strategy to use when coming back into the office over the next 6 months or so versus it just being a free-for-all. So we make sure a Director and Deputy Director are not coming in the same week or that not everyone on the same team is coming in on the same week but people are otherwise free to socialize. We'd be spreading out our risk and the productivity benefits of being in the office can start to be seen.

A lot of our work can be done remotely, but not all of it can so it gives people a chance to go into the office and take care of certain things while also feeling a little bit more normal. Right now there are people worried about little things like watering their office plants, for example, and it would give people some peace of mind. Of course, if someone didn't feel safe coming in (or could not because of children for example) then they would not be forced to - at least not short-term.










BearlyCareAnymore
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dimitrig said:

Unit2Sucks said:

dimitrig said:


One thing we have been considering in return to work is doing one week in the office alternating with two weeks out of the office. We'd split the workforce into three cohorts so that one third would be in the office at a given time.





On the one hand: neat idea. On the other: why bother?

The business I work for has been very well set up for remote work. We are a pure technology company so the benefits to in-person work are largely cultural and for marginal productivity reasons. It's nice to be able to walk down the hall and talk to someone, rather than schedule a zoom meeting. There are some benefits to having a bunch of people in the same space. Culturally, it's nice to be able to grab lunch together, do all-hands, etc.

Moving to a system where 1/3 or 1/2 of the office is remote kills almost all of those benefits. Given how much we spend on office space and what we are realizing about the true impact of remote work on our business (for better or for worse), we are considering drastically reducing our office space footprint and moving from a "remote work is permitted" to a "remote work is encouraged" business.

I expect a lot of businesses are seeing the same things we are. The downstream impacts on commercial real estate and other businesses that benefit from central business districts - eg all of the restaurants and other providers that service the workers - will be challenging for certain segments of our economy although they will present opportunities for others.

I am not suggesting this be permanent but only as a strategy to use when coming back into the office over the next 6 months or so versus it just being a free-for-all. So we make sure a Director and Deputy Director are not coming in the same week or that not everyone on the same team is coming in on the same week but people are otherwise free to socialize. We'd be spreading out our risk and the productivity benefits of being in the office can start to be seen.

A lot of our work can be done remotely, but not all of it can so it gives people a chance to go into the office and take care of certain things while also feeling a little bit more normal. Right now there are people worried about little things like watering their office plants, for example, and it would give people some peace of mind. Of course, if someone didn't feel safe coming in (or could not because of children for example) then they would not be forced to - at least not short-term.











I do not want to dismiss your statements about feeling more normal, peace of mind, etc. That is important to some people.

But I would challenge the statement that not all of the work can be done remotely. Not everyone's job can be done 100% remotely, but I will bet you that more people's jobs at your office can be done 100% remotely if your company was set up to do that. A lot of things that people think can't be done remotely can be it is just that those people haven't seen how they can be done remotely.

Many tech companies are increasingly going to remote work in areas where they have no more advantage doing so than anyone else. They just have the technical knowledge and the predisposition.

For instance. There is zero reason to have your corporate lawyers sitting in an office.

I'm not saying that everything should go remotely. But I am saying that companies have been drastically underutilizing the concept of remote workers. You want to do it wisely, and you don't want to overdo it. You may find some things you switch to remote turn out to be less efficient that way. But IMO, for a lot of positions, old habits are dying hard.
wifeisafurd
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Newsom's tone is really changing. Opening schools and business "soon." "Meaningful changes, weeks away."

On what may be a side note, Trump said no bail out for states and local government. Wonder if there is any connection between the two statements?

One take away: Newsom took an aggressive position on stay at home (on how soon he acted, and what that meant), and in providing benefits, helping those in need, etc. Not arguing with his actions. But it comes at a cost, both in terms of the economy, and government spending. The State, and more so local governments, are in in financial trouble. There will be a pressure on Newsom to open things as early as possible. There also will be second guessing (not from me) about costly overreach and who to pay for it all, when income tax revenues will be drop dramatically, and many property owners have not paid, and major owners are filing Prop 8 reassessments once County offices open. Long way of saying the give may be government layoffs and cuts, and more of them, the longer the restrictions last. I would not want to be a California governor facing the ire of public employee unions.
dimitrig
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OaktownBear said:

dimitrig said:


A lot of our work can be done remotely, but not all of it can so it gives people a chance to go into the office and take care of certain things while also feeling a little bit more normal. Right now there are people worried about little things like watering their office plants, for example, and it would give people some peace of mind. Of course, if someone didn't feel safe coming in (or could not because of children for example) then they would not be forced to - at least not short-term.











I do not want to dismiss your statements about feeling more normal, peace of mind, etc. That is important to some people.

But I would challenge the statement that not all of the work can be done remotely. Not everyone's job can be done 100% remotely, but I will bet you that more people's jobs at your office can be done 100% remotely if your company was set up to do that. A lot of things that people think can't be done remotely can be it is just that those people haven't seen how they can be done remotely.

Many tech companies are increasingly going to remote work in areas where they have no more advantage doing so than anyone else. They just have the technical knowledge and the predisposition.

For instance. There is zero reason to have your corporate lawyers sitting in an office.

I'm not saying that everything should go remotely. But I am saying that companies have been drastically underutilizing the concept of remote workers. You want to do it wisely, and you don't want to overdo it. You may find some things you switch to remote turn out to be less efficient that way. But IMO, for a lot of positions, old habits are dying hard.
We build hardware as well as write software. It can't be built, tested, and integrated remotely except at prohibitive cost and increased risk. Most of the hardware is only-one-of-its-kind so we can't adapt techniques that, say, automakers have been able to as far as robotics for assembly. Some of our 3D rendering software hasn't lent itself to working very well over a network. There are other examples.

Also, like Unit2 mentioned, I think there is value to having people collaborate around the water cooler. Lots of good ideas have had their origins at lunch or at the "after meetings" which right now don't really exist. People have often made contributions by overhearing others talking about a problem and offering solutions. Right now I find there is a little bit of an information vacuum where only the people directly working on a problem even know about it. We aren't able to engage the collective braintrust as effectively.

Sure, we have Slack and technologies like that but it's just not the same. I used to interact with dozens of colleagues per day and overhear their conversations, talk to them about what they were working on, see the endings of their meetings, and stuff like that. Now I pretty much only interact with people I need to. That's more efficient in some sense, but I think it could have negative long-term impacts.









LMK5
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dimitrig said:

OaktownBear said:

dimitrig said:


A lot of our work can be done remotely, but not all of it can so it gives people a chance to go into the office and take care of certain things while also feeling a little bit more normal. Right now there are people worried about little things like watering their office plants, for example, and it would give people some peace of mind. Of course, if someone didn't feel safe coming in (or could not because of children for example) then they would not be forced to - at least not short-term.











I do not want to dismiss your statements about feeling more normal, peace of mind, etc. That is important to some people.

But I would challenge the statement that not all of the work can be done remotely. Not everyone's job can be done 100% remotely, but I will bet you that more people's jobs at your office can be done 100% remotely if your company was set up to do that. A lot of things that people think can't be done remotely can be it is just that those people haven't seen how they can be done remotely.

Many tech companies are increasingly going to remote work in areas where they have no more advantage doing so than anyone else. They just have the technical knowledge and the predisposition.

For instance. There is zero reason to have your corporate lawyers sitting in an office.

I'm not saying that everything should go remotely. But I am saying that companies have been drastically underutilizing the concept of remote workers. You want to do it wisely, and you don't want to overdo it. You may find some things you switch to remote turn out to be less efficient that way. But IMO, for a lot of positions, old habits are dying hard.
We build hardware as well as write software. It can't be built, tested, and integrated remotely except at prohibitive cost and increased risk. Most of the hardware is only-one-of-its-kind so we can't adapt techniques that, say, automakers have been able to as far as robotics for assembly. Some of our 3D rendering software hasn't lent itself to working very well over a network. There are other examples.

Also, like Unit2 mentioned, I think there is value to having people collaborate around the water cooler. Lots of good ideas have had their origins at lunch or at the "after meetings" which right now don't really exist. People have often made contributions by overhearing others talking about a problem and offering solutions. Right now I find there is a little bit of an information vacuum where only the people directly working on a problem even know about it. We aren't able to engage the collective braintrust as effectively.

Sure, we have Slack and technologies like that but it's just not the same. I used to interact with dozens of colleagues per day and overhear their conversations, talk to them about what they were working on, see the endings of their meetings, and stuff like that. Now I pretty much only interact with people I need to. That's more efficient in some sense, but I think it could have negative long-term impacts.










The benefits of working remotely seem to vastly outweigh the negatives. I think that the impediment to more telecommuting has been companies' distrust of workers getting the job done. I think they've now been forced to carefully reconsider. But think about the savings to individuals, businesses, and society: lower business real estate costs; lower child care costs; lower gas bills; lower pollution levels; less congestion; less pressure on infrastructure leading to far lower state transportation costs. More time at home means lower stress levels for most people. I have been working half time at home and my wife has been full time at home and it's been all positive. This should be a boon to those companies wishing to get a quick efficiency advantage over their competition. If the weekday traffic patterns were to remain that would be a huge quality-of-life boost here in SoCal.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
Unit2Sucks
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OaktownBear said:





For instance. There is zero reason to have your corporate lawyers sitting in an office.


I'm also a corporate lawyer and would say this pandemic would help me bolster the argument that I can work remotely in a future job that otherwise would want me on premise, but I wouldn't go so far as to say there's "zero reason".

First and foremost - in person discussions still have some value and can drive efficiency. I find it much less stressful to have someone pop over and ask me a quick question when I'm available than having people constantly pinging me on slack or trying to schedule meetings that could be easily addressed with a quick touch base. I feel less efficient now than when I am in office. You really have to adapt your practices to get the most out of remote work. I have long felt that the inefficiency from remote work is more than made up for in the time I save by not commuting.

I say this as someone who has spent a lot of time working remotely. Before this whole thing went down, I had been remote 2-3 days a week.

 
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