There is no perfect answer.

Even if somehow we determine what the perfect answer was later, it won't matter because we didn't have anywhere near the information to know what the perfect answer is in this exact moment. We're just make the best educational guessses we can. And some are just literally guessing.

hanky1 said:

---

I saw this the other day. It's the most devastating political ad I've ever seen.

---

Like they couldn't make one of those about nearly any political figure. I don't think Nancy will be the nominee and I do think you are in for a treat when you see the adds they cue up about dear leader.

hanky1 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Who else?

---

I saw this the other day. It's the most devastating political ad I've ever seen.

---

You're a little young or forgetful

hanky1 said:

---

I saw this the other day. It's the most devastating political ad I've ever seen.

---

Well, again, you're trolling, but also:

Reopen the country? Really?

Anarchistbear said:

---

Who else?

---

What was she thinking?

LMK5 said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Who else?

---

What was she thinking?

---

She likes to eat ice cream

chazzed said:

---

hanky1 said:

---

I saw this the other day. It's the most devastating political ad I've ever seen.

---

Well, again, you're trolling, but also:

---

I'm not even trolling. Her heart just got ripped out. If you look closely you may still see it barely beating.

That lady is two cardiac events from being POTUS.

LMK5 said:

---

That lady is two cardiac events from being POTUS.

---

One can only hope Trump and Pence are taking Trump's advice and using Hydroxycloroquine. What do they have to lose?

golden sloth said:

---

Unfortunately, yesterday and today have seen a pronounced spike in the numbers of new cases, to the extent that they are about 500 above what the previous record for new cases in the state was. That can't be good, and suggests a longer lockdown. Also, today is the second deadliest day on record in the state, with about 4 hours more to go.

---

I think this is due to a big testing spike in CA, not so much increased spread of the virus.

All you do is troll. You have no chance of convincing me otherwise, so I'm just doing what I can to expose your game to newcomers and onlookers.

chazzed said:

---

All you do is troll. You have no chance of convincing me otherwise, so I'm just doing what I can to expose your game to newcomers and onlookers.

---

You're honestly telling me that wasn't the most devastating political ad you've ever seen? If not #1, then top-5 guaranteed. "Nancy Antoinette" ROFL. That is brilliant and look and listen to Nancy in that video. She sounds ridiculous. Ridiculous.

If Trump calls her Nancy Antoinette from now on, it'll catch on and everyone will.

LMK5 said:

---

That lady is two cardiac events from being POTUS.

---

The sad thing is that it'd be a massive improvement and still horrific.

hanky1 said:

---

chazzed said:

---

All you do is troll. You have no chance of convincing me otherwise, so I'm just doing what I can to expose your game to newcomers and onlookers.

---

You're honestly telling me that wasn't the most devastating political ad you've ever seen? If not #1, then top-5 guaranteed. "Nancy Antoinette" ROFL. That is brilliant and look and listen to Nancy in that video. She sounds ridiculous. Ridiculous.

If Trump calls her Nancy Antoinette from now on, it'll catch on and everyone will.

---

It will. Whatever.

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

I'm simultaneously heartened and dismayed by this post for what I know are completely illogical reasons.

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

---

Similar situation in Orange County. I was at Huntington Beach a week ago. Lots of people on the beach, and PCH pretty crowded with cars, and that was midweek. Freeways are getting more crowded every day. I'm surprised you're afraid to hike. That would seem like a very safe activity. We walk on our local trail daily. It's certainly safer than shopping in a store.

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

---

Honestly, don't know what is going on down there. I read an article about how the Bay Area kept its numbers down. It indicated that looking at anonymized tracking data that over 60% of the cell phones had not moved more than 500 feet from their usual home. So if you did nothing but walk your dog, as is my case, you weren't in the 60%.

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

---

Honestly, don't know what is going on down there. I read an article about how the Bay Area kept its numbers down. It indicated that looking at anonymized tracking data that over 60% of the cell phones had not moved more than 500 feet from their usual home. So if you did nothing but walk your dog, as is my case, you weren't in the 60%.

---

In OC, for a population of 3.2M, there have been 1691 cases and 33 deaths. 148 currently hospitalized.

LMK5 said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

---

Honestly, don't know what is going on down there. I read an article about how the Bay Area kept its numbers down. It indicated that looking at anonymized tracking data that over 60% of the cell phones had not moved more than 500 feet from their usual home. So if you did nothing but walk your dog, as is my case, you weren't in the 60%.

---

In OC, for a population of 3.2M, there have been 1691 cases and 33 deaths. 148 currently hospitalized.

---

Yes, but you guys are talking about new behavior. You wouldn't see the impact yet. Also, I don't know when your first cases are, but the Bay Area was first so should be further along the curve. LA county has about 2.5 times the deaths per capita than the Bay Area. The rate of deaths per capita in LA county is 3.5 times higher per capita than Sf county and SF has the second highest population density in the country.

sycasey said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

Unfortunately, yesterday and today have seen a pronounced spike in the numbers of new cases, to the extent that they are about 500 above what the previous record for new cases in the state was. That can't be good, and suggests a longer lockdown. Also, today is the second deadliest day on record in the state, with about 4 hours more to go.

---

I think this is due to a big testing spike in CA, not so much increased spread of the virus.

---

Hopefully that is the explanation. And hopefully the increased deaths is just a result of it being a delayed reaction to new cases.

I did find it interesting that the la times is now tracking hospitalizations related to covid and whether they were ICU or ACU patients. That number seems to be pretty steady.

OaktownBear said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

---

Honestly, don't know what is going on down there. I read an article about how the Bay Area kept its numbers down. It indicated that looking at anonymized tracking data that over 60% of the cell phones had not moved more than 500 feet from their usual home. So if you did nothing but walk your dog, as is my case, you weren't in the 60%.

---

In OC, for a population of 3.2M, there have been 1691 cases and 33 deaths. 148 currently hospitalized.

---

Yes, but you guys are talking about new behavior. You wouldn't see the impact yet. Also, I don't know when your first cases are, but the Bay Area was first so should be further along the curve. LA county has about 2.5 times the deaths per capita than the Bay Area. The rate of deaths per capita in LA county is 3.5 times higher per capita than Sf county and SF has the second highest population density in the country.

---

So I looked it up. The first reported cases and reported deaths in OC came in each case at least 6 weeks after the Bay Area. With that context, those totals aren't as good in comparison as they seem. Less than 5 weeks ago the Bay Area with more than twice the population had 7 deaths. Check back on those numbers in 6 weeks.

golden sloth said:

---

sycasey said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

Unfortunately, yesterday and today have seen a pronounced spike in the numbers of new cases, to the extent that they are about 500 above what the previous record for new cases in the state was. That can't be good, and suggests a longer lockdown. Also, today is the second deadliest day on record in the state, with about 4 hours more to go.

---

I think this is due to a big testing spike in CA, not so much increased spread of the virus.

---

Hopefully that is the explanation. And hopefully the increased deaths is just a result of it being a delayed reaction to new cases.

I did find it interesting that the la times is now tracking hospitalizations related to covid and whether they were ICU or ACU patients. That number seems to be pretty steady.

---

I still argue you need to look at trends on a longer term basis because of reporting and testing biases. Again, I would encourage people to look at the state curves which you can see on the internet with a google search. It is not a smooth curve, but peaks and valleys. You need to a few weeks to see the curve shapes in general. Silver and others are just wrong on relying on short period changes.

OaktownBear said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

LMK5 said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

I'm actually pretty interested to see how it goes when Georgia and other states open up. I wish that we could do it in a more scientific way and have a few different states and areas open up with different styles so that we could study it but we will learn from this even without that.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it's a good idea, but if a particular state's governor has decided to take on this risk at least the rest of us can learn from it.

---

The thing is people are only asking the health question. The other question is how does the economy respond. Opening restaurants doesn't mean you will get nearly the people going to them if people don't feel safe. I'd guess the percentage of people that were against sheltering will be out in force at the beginning, but can they sustain the whole economy

---

FWIW, Newsom's order has been relaxed in the OC. All city beaches are open, white collar workers have determined they are all essential and gone back to work (full parking lots where our office is located), city's have stopped enforcing stay at home, parks are now open, and the only thing really closed are businesses with direct contact with the public, like retail and sit-down restaurants and non-essential government services. Traffic is starting to return. Most people are using masks when out in public (not in Huntington Beach which appears to be the center of the "resistance"). But basically we are coming out of lockdown whether everyone likes it or not. Newsom has really backed-off challenging anyone.

---

I decided to take a drive along the coast today and went to see some friends. We talked on the phone while they waved from their balcony and I stayed in the car. It was good to see them in person, though. I dropped a box of goodies off for them. My experience in terms of isolation mirrors yours.

I drove through Downtown LA to San Pedro to Manhattan Beach via PV, where my friends live. I have to say that the people in the South Bay are a lot more loose than here in the San Gabriel Valley. Lots of people biking, walking, jogging, and maybe only about half wearing masks. The parks were crowded. Beaches were closed, but a few people were hanging out anyway. Traffic is starting to return. I actually got stuck in a mini traffic jam in Downtown LA. I drove by LAX and watched a while. I saw no planes take off and just one land.

I don't know if it is the salt air or what, but I actually saw a guy without a mask or gloves (or a shirt) pay cash for tacos at a taco truck. The guy taking the money also did not wear a mask or gloves. If the restrictions are enforced unevenly - or not at all - then that breeds discontent. If cities aren't going to enforce restrictions then don't have them. The only good thing is that for the most part with COVID-19 we can take responsibility for our health. Like you, I am not planning on eating out or being in social situations for a long time no matter what other people do. It's a bummer, because hiking is one of my favorite things, but I'll manage. My employer is talking about bringing us back onto campus very slowly and the target date is currently mid-July. Think about that: mid-July!

Parents of small kids have it even worse because with schools closed they will pretty much be forced to work from home until schools open up again. That will be in the fall at the earliest. The economy won't be looking like anything CLOSE to normal until winter - and that's if these yahoos running around don't prolong our lockdowns. Having looked at similar pandemics in the past, I would expect that we will have something approximating life as we were used to it about a year from now. A lot of damage can be done in that time both in terms of economic loss but also loss of human life.

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Honestly, don't know what is going on down there. I read an article about how the Bay Area kept its numbers down. It indicated that looking at anonymized tracking data that over 60% of the cell phones had not moved more than 500 feet from their usual home. So if you did nothing but walk your dog, as is my case, you weren't in the 60%.

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In OC, for a population of 3.2M, there have been 1691 cases and 33 deaths. 148 currently hospitalized.

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Yes, but you guys are talking about new behavior. You wouldn't see the impact yet. Also, I don't know when your first cases are, but the Bay Area was first so should be further along the curve. LA county has about 2.5 times the deaths per capita than the Bay Area. The rate of deaths per capita in LA county is 3.5 times higher per capita than Sf county and SF has the second highest population density in the country.

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So I looked it up. The first reported cases and reported deaths in OC came in each case at least 6 weeks after the Bay Area. With that context, those totals aren't as good in comparison as they seem. Less than 5 weeks ago the Bay Area with more than twice the population had 7 deaths. Check back on those numbers in 6 weeks.

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Right you are. IIf you look at OC's curve, it is in essence about 6 weeks behind the Bay Area. Also you really can't look at day to day or even weekly figure to see how the curve develops. So check back in 6 weeks.

golden sloth said:

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sycasey said:

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golden sloth said:

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Unfortunately, yesterday and today have seen a pronounced spike in the numbers of new cases, to the extent that they are about 500 above what the previous record for new cases in the state was. That can't be good, and suggests a longer lockdown. Also, today is the second deadliest day on record in the state, with about 4 hours more to go.

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I think this is due to a big testing spike in CA, not so much increased spread of the virus.

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Hopefully that is the explanation. And hopefully the increased deaths is just a result of it being a delayed reaction to new cases.

I did find it interesting that the la times is now tracking hospitalizations related to covid and whether they were ICU or ACU patients. That number seems to be pretty steady.

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BTW, LA lockdown is for the most part very different in LA Beach Cities and OC. You go to say the San Fernando Valley and it is ghost town. That is not at all true in most of the OC.

LMK5 said:

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Similar situation in Orange County. I was at Huntington Beach a week ago. Lots of people on the beach, and PCH pretty crowded with cars, and that was midweek. Freeways are getting more crowded every day. I'm surprised you're afraid to hike. That would seem like a very safe activity. We walk on our local trail daily. It's certainly safer than shopping in a store.

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I am not afraid to hike, but:

1) Most of the hiking trails are closed. I know, because I have driven to the trailheads and in many cases even the roads leading to the trailheads are closed.

2) Even with being closed there are some people who are jumping the barriers and using them anyway. We are not talking about a lot of people ignoring the closure, but enough that I don't want to be walking on the trail as some idiot on a mountain bike zooms past without a mask on. Bikers seem to be the WORST offenders in terms of not using masks but infringing on people's space. Somehow they think being on a bike makes them immune to the virus.

3) There are too many people on them, closed or not. You can just forget the ones that are open, because that's Disneyland.

Once a week or so I have been driving out to my house near Joshua Tree and hiking around in the open desert on BLM land. I've never seen anything but jackrabbits out there. I don't even bother to bring a mask or anything like that. However, if it is an actual maintained trail it is either closed or too crowded for my taste.

bearister said:

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Reopen the country? Really?

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

kelly09 said:

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bearister said:

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Reopen the country? Really?

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

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kelly09 said:

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bearister said:

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Reopen the country? Really?

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

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I always like to get my health studies from political scientists.

So many problems. A couple

1. It doesn't account for population density or the make up of that population density.
2. It doesn't account for when the virus reached the location. For instance, if you looked at Italy as of February 21 compared to China you would say Italy was doing a great job.

In both of these cases, "Flyover" (his term, not mine) states have big advantages in that their population is more dispersed than SF, LA, Chicago, NYC, New Orleans, etc. And they do not see nearly the international traffic that those cities do. And in fact, they saw their first cases many weeks after. The Bay Area with the first death and the first case of community spread in America, and high population density literally had its first cases 2 months before these states and has done an amazing job of keeping its deaths per million down.

His commentary on Sweden is drastically misleading. Their cases are low in part because their testing is low. They are number 10 in deaths per million. First of all, that includes 2 tiny countryies with a total between them have 77 deaths, one that is basically part of Italy, the other than is sandwiched between Spain and France. Second of all, their first death came after the first deaths in every single European country that has a higher number of deaths per capita. Third of all, their rate of deaths is going way up. In the last three weeks they have gone from 180 deaths to 1765. They have been climbing the charts on deaths per capita like crazy. Fourth of all, comparing to the rest of Scandinavia, they are doing horribly. They have nearly 3 times the deaths per capita as Denmark, Nearly 5 times that of Norway (and Sweden and Norway had their first death on the same day), and over 6 times the deaths per capita as Finland.

The dude wanted to make an argument and he cherry picked data to make it and did so in a way that makes zero scientific sense. It only makes political sense, which makes sense for a political scientists as opposed to an epidemiologist. Love how conservatives like to get their scientific studies from people not in the field. That military historian from Stanford had great analysis.

This is really not the time for bullshyte political manipulation of data in the guise of scientific study.

I'm also trying to figure out why so many conservatives are fixated with the mortality rate of the disease and seem to think a higher infection rate justifies anything. 2 options:

1. 1 out of every 100 people in America will get a disease with no measures to stop the spread. Every person who gets the disease dies. I have a 1% chance of dying from the disease.

2. 100 out of every 100 people in America will get a disease with no measures to stop the spread. 1 out of 100 who get the disease will die. I have a 1% chance of dying from the disease.

Do I effing care that the mortality rate of the 2nd disease is much lower. I have the same flipping chance of dying. Why do you seem to think a high transmission rate and lower mortality rate is safer?

We could be opening up tomorrow if your boy had gone all in on producing n95 masks, and developing a testing infrastructure. That is the issue. Not finding a philosphy professor from Harvard and a Woman's Studies professor from Oxford that are willing to theorize that the disease is not that dangerous.

OaktownBear said:

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kelly09 said:

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bearister said:

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Reopen the country? Really?

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https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

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I always like to get my health studies from political scientists.

So many problems. A couple

1. It doesn't account for population density or the make up of that population density.
2. It doesn't account for when the virus reached the location. For instance, if you looked at Italy as of February 21 compared to China you would say Italy was doing a great job.

In both of these cases, "Flyover" (his term, not mine) states have big advantages in that their population is more dispersed than SF, LA, Chicago, NYC, New Orleans, etc. And they do not see nearly the international traffic that those cities do. And in fact, they saw their first cases many weeks after. The Bay Area with the first death and the first case of community spread in America, and high population density literally had its first cases 2 months before these states and has done an amazing job of keeping its deaths per million down.

His commentary on Sweden is drastically misleading. Their cases are low in part because their testing is low. They are number 10 in deaths per million. First of all, that includes 2 tiny countryies with a total between them have 77 deaths, one that is basically part of Italy, the other than is sandwiched between Spain and France. Second of all, their first death came after the first deaths in every single European country that has a higher number of deaths per capita. Third of all, their rate of deaths is going way up. In the last three weeks they have gone from 180 deaths to 1765. They have been climbing the charts on deaths per capita like crazy. Fourth of all, comparing to the rest of Scandinavia, they are doing horribly. They have nearly 3 times the deaths per capita as Denmark, Nearly 5 times that of Norway (and Sweden and Norway had their first death on the same day), and over 6 times the deaths per capita as Finland.

The dude wanted to make an argument and he cherry picked data to make it and did so in a way that makes zero scientific sense. It only makes political sense, which makes sense for a political scientists as opposed to an epidemiologist. Love how conservatives like to get their scientific studies from people not in the field. That military historian from Stanford had great analysis.

This is really not the time for bullshyte political manipulation of data in the guise of scientific study.

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I find it fascinating that Sweden, a country strongly associated with socialism and left wing causes, is taking the same position as those on the right wing of American politics. It's a shame we don't hear more about how and why they designed their response the way they have, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. We need to think in terms of total societal damage resulting from economic consequences as well as health consequences, and perhaps that's the thrust behind their decision-making.

A Republican fines the man who won't pick up after his dog. A Democrat sends him a lifetime supply of doggie bags.LMK5 said:

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A Republican fines the man who won't pick up after his dog. A Democrat sends him a lifetime supply of doggie bags.

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And a man of principle that walks by poop picks it up and disposes of it

LMK5 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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kelly09 said:

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bearister said:

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Reopen the country? Really?

---

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

---

I always like to get my health studies from political scientists.

So many problems. A couple

1. It doesn't account for population density or the make up of that population density.
2. It doesn't account for when the virus reached the location. For instance, if you looked at Italy as of February 21 compared to China you would say Italy was doing a great job.

In both of these cases, "Flyover" (his term, not mine) states have big advantages in that their population is more dispersed than SF, LA, Chicago, NYC, New Orleans, etc. And they do not see nearly the international traffic that those cities do. And in fact, they saw their first cases many weeks after. The Bay Area with the first death and the first case of community spread in America, and high population density literally had its first cases 2 months before these states and has done an amazing job of keeping its deaths per million down.

His commentary on Sweden is drastically misleading. Their cases are low in part because their testing is low. They are number 10 in deaths per million. First of all, that includes 2 tiny countryies with a total between them have 77 deaths, one that is basically part of Italy, the other than is sandwiched between Spain and France. Second of all, their first death came after the first deaths in every single European country that has a higher number of deaths per capita. Third of all, their rate of deaths is going way up. In the last three weeks they have gone from 180 deaths to 1765. They have been climbing the charts on deaths per capita like crazy. Fourth of all, comparing to the rest of Scandinavia, they are doing horribly. They have nearly 3 times the deaths per capita as Denmark, Nearly 5 times that of Norway (and Sweden and Norway had their first death on the same day), and over 6 times the deaths per capita as Finland.

The dude wanted to make an argument and he cherry picked data to make it and did so in a way that makes zero scientific sense. It only makes political sense, which makes sense for a political scientists as opposed to an epidemiologist. Love how conservatives like to get their scientific studies from people not in the field. That military historian from Stanford had great analysis.

This is really not the time for bullshyte political manipulation of data in the guise of scientific study.

---

I find it fascinating that Sweden, a country strongly associated with socialism and left wing causes, is taking the same position as those on the right wing of American politics. It's a shame we don't hear more about how and why they designed their response the way they have, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. We need to think in terms of total societal damage resulting from economic consequences as well as health consequences, and perhaps that's the thrust behind their decision-making.

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Their chief epidemiologist basically ascribes to the theory that if one kid gets chicken pox, you put all the siblings in the bed with him so they all get it at once. Much of their health community disagrees with him. It is basically one guy making the decision. His theory is they are reaching herd immunity quickly, though I don't know how he could know that because they are for the most part only testing people in hospitals - that is why their case numbers don't look bad while their death rate soars.

I'm going to say this again. South Korea - 5 deaths per million. Taiwan - 6 total deaths. Hong Kong - 1 death per million.They didn't need to shut down because they were ready. What to do is obvious. The problem is that acknowledging that fact is to acknowledge that our federal government has failed and continues to fail and politically some people don't want to accept that.

US 137 deaths per million. Sweden 171 deaths per million. Sweden had its first death more than a month after the US and much more after South Korea and Hong Kong.

Now, it is possible that what Sweden is doing could prove to be better than what the US is doing. Because if we don't get an effective treatment or a vaccine soon, given that we aren't following the South Korean model, we may just be delaying the inevitable. That doesn't mean Sweden is right. It would just mean they had the better moronic response. South Korea is right and the numbers bear that out. I thought the point of this was to flatten the curve and buy time until we can emulate South Korea. Not buy time for zero reason.