wifeisafurd said:

---

> he is saying we won't be able to afford to open schools.

---

could happen, or not, dunno, but makes perfect sense given the givens, except for parents.
# mourning in america

GBear4Life said:

---

Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Bravo. To hold rural and semi-rural locales to the same restrictions as LA County is oppressive.

wifeisafurd said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Restaurants are not the issue. Insurance offices, government offices, commercial offices, janitors, drivers, retail, services, manufacturing contractors, etc, etc. Not many of these have the lawyer's privilege of telecommuting while musing

Newsom is not qualified to tell us what the schedule for the state is because a) he is a functionary not a scientist and b) the state is diverse and doesn't require one schedule. I don't believe anything Newsom says about the virus. I do believe- with a grain of salt- the county health people. They should be coordinating the opening in concert with local government and business not some one size fits all authoritarianism. Counties are absolutely right to defy him based on their circumstances

---

whether you agree with Anti or not, this is the practical effect. At least in SoCal, counties are doing whatever they want in terms of enforcement. If you live in the OC for example, it is really up to us to the degree we want to take on risk. People will respect your space if you are out walking or at the market, but are also happy to come right up to if you are okay with that. Basically, there appears to be a de facto end to the quarantine, on an individual basis

---

The problem is that the actions of one county will eventually impact that of another. If people think LA's problem will stay confined to la, they are wrong. It will eventually spread to riverside, orange, san Bernardino, and bakersfield.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

golden sloth said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Restaurants are not the issue. Insurance offices, government offices, commercial offices, janitors, drivers, retail, services, manufacturing contractors, etc, etc. Not many of these have the lawyer's privilege of telecommuting while musing

Newsom is not qualified to tell us what the schedule for the state is because a) he is a functionary not a scientist and b) the state is diverse and doesn't require one schedule. I don't believe anything Newsom says about the virus. I do believe- with a grain of salt- the county health people. They should be coordinating the opening in concert with local government and business not some one size fits all authoritarianism. Counties are absolutely right to defy him based on their circumstances

---

whether you agree with Anti or not, this is the practical effect. At least in SoCal, counties are doing whatever they want in terms of enforcement. If you live in the OC for example, it is really up to us to the degree we want to take on risk. People will respect your space if you are out walking or at the market, but are also happy to come right up to if you are okay with that. Basically, there appears to be a de facto end to the quarantine, on an individual basis

---

The problem is that the actions of one county will eventually impact that of another. If people think LA's problem will stay confined to la, they are wrong. It will eventually spread to riverside, orange, san Bernardino, and bakersfield.

---

Yes and no. Obviously we are not opening up with no restrictions. Counties currently set public health and restaurant requirements so they still will, same with events and a lot of commerce. Sure it would be useful to have these harmonized but they aren't currently and even the lockdown is not harmonized. The only thing that will present a risk is movement but that is really uncontrollable and if you look around is already happening. Traffic is really stepping up.

Some interesting tidbits about counties that are now open. Barber shops have to be state licensed so they are not open but this may also prevent an opportunity to develop guidelines that protect customer and barber. If I'm a barber I don't want a customer in my shop without a mask and vice versa. Also restaurants in open counties can serve alcohol take out only because liquor licenses are under state authorities. So you eat in and drink out..,stupid retribution.

Has air travel with China been opened back up?

I was looking at the app which tracks air traffic and I see quite a lot of air travel between SFO and LAX and Chinese cities including Beijing and Xiamen. These are commercial airlines (Air China and Xiamen Air).

I tried to book a ticket to Beijing and Expedia says there are no available flights, but according to Air China's own web site they are operating flights to many international cities including Vancouver and Los Angeles. Xiamen Air says the next available flight is August 10 and yet they are flying over California right now.

LAX's site seems to agree that there are flights inbound from China:

https://www.flylax.com/en/flight-info?fn=CA987&type=

I would say they are cargo but terminal T3 is not a cargo terminal. Are these ghost flights that are still flying to maintain capabilities of pilots and crew but without any passengers? For Chinese VIPs only?

I am curious about this.

Edit: I checked Air China Cargo schedule and there are 32 flights per day between Beijing and LAX. This is not one of those flights. Neither the times nor the flight numbers (start with CI instead of CA) match any of the cargo flights.

Edit again: Hainan Airlines has a flight arriving from Chongqing and China Eastern has a flight from Beijing today as well. In fact, there are quite a few flights originating in Mainland China. Flights today from London and Frankfurt as well, which at least I *COULD* book through Expedia. Some lockdown.

GBear4Life said:

---

Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Having been to tiny Coalinga, this means the five fast food places are now open.

wifeisafurd said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Having been to tiny Coalinga, this means the five fast food places are now open.

---

Don't forget the 1 Starbucks lol

golden sloth said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

Anarchistbear said:

---

Restaurants are not the issue. Insurance offices, government offices, commercial offices, janitors, drivers, retail, services, manufacturing contractors, etc, etc. Not many of these have the lawyer's privilege of telecommuting while musing

Newsom is not qualified to tell us what the schedule for the state is because a) he is a functionary not a scientist and b) the state is diverse and doesn't require one schedule. I don't believe anything Newsom says about the virus. I do believe- with a grain of salt- the county health people. They should be coordinating the opening in concert with local government and business not some one size fits all authoritarianism. Counties are absolutely right to defy him based on their circumstances

---

whether you agree with Anti or not, this is the practical effect. At least in SoCal, counties are doing whatever they want in terms of enforcement. If you live in the OC for example, it is really up to us to the degree we want to take on risk. People will respect your space if you are out walking or at the market, but are also happy to come right up to if you are okay with that. Basically, there appears to be a de facto end to the quarantine, on an individual basis

---

The problem is that the actions of one county will eventually impact that of another. If people think LA's problem will stay confined to la, they are wrong. It will eventually spread to riverside, orange, san Bernardino, and bakersfield.

---

I'm concerned, and I'm not taking on risk unit its clear that the virus has diminished. But I can afford to structure my life that way. Many can not.

Another set of data I would like the "safely reopen" crowd to explain. Mark Cuban hired secret shoppers to evaluate reopened businesses in Dallas. The results are ... unsurprising.

Quote:

---

Overall 96% of businesses were non-compliant across all mandatory protocols and all locations. The extent of non-compliance is dramatic with ~1/3 of all locations being <50% compliant across mandatory protocols as established by the Governor's office.



Aggregate Degree of Safety Protocol Compliance By Protocols: On average, ~60% of mandatory protocols were followed and ~54% of all suggested protocols were followed. In aggregate locations followed ~58% of all mandatory + suggested protocols. The following chart shows an aggregate view of all protocols and the degree of *non-compliance* (the top is what is not followed and the bottom is what is more followed) in order of most to least non-compliant across locations.

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Another set of data I would like the "safely reopen" crowd to explain. Mark Cuban hired secret shoppers to evaluate reopened businesses in Dallas. The results are ... unsurprising.

Quote:

---

Overall 96% of businesses were non-compliant across all mandatory protocols and all locations. The extent of non-compliance is dramatic with ~1/3 of all locations being <50% compliant across mandatory protocols as established by the Governor's office.



Aggregate Degree of Safety Protocol Compliance By Protocols: On average, ~60% of mandatory protocols were followed and ~54% of all suggested protocols were followed. In aggregate locations followed ~58% of all mandatory + suggested protocols. The following chart shows an aggregate view of all protocols and the degree of *non-compliance* (the top is what is not followed and the bottom is what is more followed) in order of most to least non-compliant across locations.

---

---

This isn't very hard to explain You have a re-open with people not properly trained. I'd also question the veracity of the secret shopper's qualification; ideally you would hire professionals to do this in a standardized manner and they would be trained. Not serious data but interesting. Also the compliance rates by industry-.for fast food this is kind of things staff have been trained on; apparel stores would have no clue.

wifeisafurd said:

---

GBear4Life said:

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Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Having been to tiny Coalinga, this means the five fast food places are now open.

---

The question is: Can you get a legal haircut there?

kelly09 said:

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kelly09 said:

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https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

Revealed: major anti-lockdown group's links to America's far right


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/lockdown-groups-far-right-links-coronavirus-protests-american-revolution?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Interesting article. People in states across the board, red or blue started voluntary staying at home in droves prior to their state's stay at home orders. Again, stay at home orders did not tank the economy. Stay at home orders were a response to circumstances that tanked the economy.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-didnt-wait-for-their-governors-to-tell-them-to-stay-home-because-of-covid-19/

people are actually trying to argue that the SIP didn't exacerbate the recession. Amazing.

LMK5 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Having been to tiny Coalinga, this means the five fast food places are now open.

---

The question is: Can you get a legal haircut there?

---

I offered my hairdresser $70 to come to my backyard and cut my hair. Her salon where she rents space was obviously closed so she was happy to.

She said the CA board was revoking cosmetology licenses from people who were defying the state order and staying open.

bearister said:

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kelly09 said:

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kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

Revealed: major anti-lockdown group's links to America's far right


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/lockdown-groups-far-right-links-coronavirus-protests-american-revolution?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

---

The Guardian? no lw bias there.

OaktownBear said:

---

Interesting article. People in states across the board, red or blue started voluntary staying at home in droves prior to their state's stay at home orders. Again, stay at home orders did not tank the economy. Stay at home orders were a response to circumstances that tanked the economy.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-didnt-wait-for-their-governors-to-tell-them-to-stay-home-because-of-covid-19/

---

Exactly. And that will continue until people feel safe.

GBear4Life said:

---

people are actually trying to argue that the SIP didn't exacerbate the recession. Amazing.

---

https://amgreatness.com/2020/05/07/california-is-ready-to-get-rid-of-gavin-newsom/

kelly09 said:

---

bearister said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

Revealed: major anti-lockdown group's links to America's far right


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/lockdown-groups-far-right-links-coronavirus-protests-american-revolution?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

---

The Guardian? no lw bias there.

---

1. Every news source is Left of your Far Right go tos;

2. It was not an opinion piece. Are you contesting the factual accuracy of the story? If so, please present the opposing facts;

3. For the sake of argument let's assume the factual assertions in the article are true. Do those facts concern you? If not, why not?


*This process may help you understand why tRump had to settle his civil lawsuits. He is a blowhard. 10 minutes into any deposition it became clear that: there were no facts to back up his bombastic, conclusory statements; he makes stuff up as he goes along; he has no knowledge; and he is a liar. His attorneys knew that exposing him to a deposition was like the Titanic hitting an iceberg.

I generally try to ignore you but your "recall Newsom comment needed a smack down.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

OaktownBear said:

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Interesting article. People in states across the board, red or blue started voluntary staying at home in droves prior to their state's stay at home orders. Again, stay at home orders did not tank the economy. Stay at home orders were a response to circumstances that tanked the economy.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-didnt-wait-for-their-governors-to-tell-them-to-stay-home-because-of-covid-19/

---

Exactly. And that will continue until people feel safe.

---

Yes, basically what the article discusses is data from GPS from mobile phones showing in virtually every state that the number of people staying home peaked prior to any stay at home order and hit a plateau. Other states were just below peak levels when their orders hit. Basically in most states people started staying home in March around the same time in response to national stories

Quote:

---

If you look at movement data in a cross-section of states President Trump won in the southeast in 2016 Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Kentucky 23 percent of people were staying home on average during the first week of March. That proportion jumped to 47 percent a month later across these six states.

If defying social distancing orders were really a political statement, you'd think that the southeast would be a hotbed for dissent. Yet people in the six states we examined changed their behavior around mid-March, before the states' official stay-at-home orders. In fact, about 90 percent of the total change between early March and mid-April had occurred in the week before the stay-at-home orders were passed in each state.

That's more or less in line with the country at large


Almost uniformly across these states, people started staying home beginning on March 14. The percentage of people staying home rose rapidly over the following nine days and tended to plateau by March 23.

The Cuebiq data suggests that behavioral changes were largely driven by people making a voluntary choice to stay home rather than being forced to do so by a state-sanctioned stay-at-home order. One need only look at the behavior of residents in North Carolina and their neighbors in South Carolina: While North Carolina issued a stay-at-home order eight days before South Carolina, a stabilized number of people in both states started staying at home about a week before North Carolina's order.

---

LMK5 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Coalinga declares all its businesses 'essential' in defiance of Gov. Newsom's order

Love it

---

Having been to tiny Coalinga, this means the five fast food places are now open.

---

The question is: Can you get a legal haircut there?

---

The bird nesting in my hair really wants to know.

kelly09 said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

I really don't like The Hill and here is more garbage. There is the tittle about civil rights and who has the burden of proof. So I am expecting a discussion about who actually has the burden of proof when contesting a government mandated lockdown. Stupid me. Instead I got an attack on the media by a media outlet, and the assumptions the media makes. Do I read anything from the NT Times knowing they have a bias? Duh, doesn't everyone? Same when I read Fox. So what does this have to do with burden of proof? Then I got a lot of antidotal stuff about Sweden, etc. Oh wait a minute, they finally said a court determines who has the burden proof. Well isn't that shocking. I honestly thought that it as a class of fifth graders. And what did these courts hold pray tell? F if they told me. What a waste of time.

wifeisafurd said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

I really don't like The Hill and here is more garbage. There is the tittle about civil rights and who has the burden of proof. So I am expecting a discussion about who actually has the burden of proof when contesting a government mandated lockdown. Stupid me. Instead I got an attack on the media by a media outlet, and the assumptions the media makes. Do I read anything from the NT Times knowing they have a bias? Duh, doesn't everyone? Same when I read Fox. So what does this have to do with burden of proof? Then I got a lot of antidotal stuff about Sweden, etc. Oh wait a minute, they finally said a court determines who has the burden proof. Well isn't that shocking. I honestly thought that it as a class of fifth graders. And what did these courts hold pray tell? F if they told me. What a waste of time.

---

I didn't read burden of proof re the media but of State governors, county supervisors etc.
For example; Governor Pritzer of Illinois says that church services cannot return to normal until there is a vaccine. Governor Newsome said the state could begin many of the phase two proposals in mid May but that counties that had put in May 31st lockdowns could continue their end date. Contra Costa which has a relatively low covid death count put in their lockdowns because, apparently, that how five supervisors felt. There was no public debate. Their decision was arbitrary.
As this pandemic progresses, shouldn't state and county politicians explain their decisions by exposing all of the relevant data so that open or not open mandates can be debated?

bearister said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

The Guardian? no lw bias there.

---

1. Every news source is Left of your Far Right go tos;

---

You can't be serious here, Bearister.

Quote:

---

2. It was not an opinion piece. Are you contesting the factual accuracy of the story? If so, please present the opposing facts;

---

This is the basic premise high schoolers understand that has been proffered here ad nauseum when partisans refute based on the publication and not the content. Glad you're finally on board.

For anyone who hasn't seen the data on what it looks like after states reopen, this is a pretty good article from the NYT. OTB posted about cell phone location data, but this article shows other metrics including consumer spend.

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

"There's just no evidence that this partial reopening in Georgia has significantly changed anything in the economy," said John Friedman, an economist at Brown University and a co-director of Opportunity Insights, a Harvard-based organization that is publicly tracking economic data on the crisis from a number of private companies. Consumer spending data in Georgia has fluctuated up and down, but moving averages of the metric have remained about the same.

Consumer spending data gathered by the project has not fallen as far as other measures of the health of the economy, partly thanks to tax refunds and federal stimulus checks that helped prop up spending in April. But daily measures of employment and store closings, particularly for small businesses, fell precipitously through March and have remained low.

---

---

kelly09 said:

---

wifeisafurd said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

kelly09 said:

---

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-31/coronavirus-death-rate-estimates-show-risk-rising-sharply-with-age
Protect elders. Open schools, business, college football stadums, recall Newsome and let's get on with our lives.

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/496586-the-burden-of-proof-lies-with-economic-lockdown-proponents

---

I really don't like The Hill and here is more garbage. There is the tittle about civil rights and who has the burden of proof. So I am expecting a discussion about who actually has the burden of proof when contesting a government mandated lockdown. Stupid me. Instead I got an attack on the media by a media outlet, and the assumptions the media makes. Do I read anything from the NT Times knowing they have a bias? Duh, doesn't everyone? Same when I read Fox. So what does this have to do with burden of proof? Then I got a lot of antidotal stuff about Sweden, etc. Oh wait a minute, they finally said a court determines who has the burden proof. Well isn't that shocking. I honestly thought that it as a class of fifth graders. And what did these courts hold pray tell? F if they told me. What a waste of time.

---

I didn't read burden of proof re the media but of State governors, county supervisors etc.
For example; Governor Pritzer of Illinois says that church services cannot return to normal until there is a vaccine. Governor Newsome said the state could begin many of the phase two proposals in mid May but that counties that had put in May 31st lockdowns could continue their end date. Contra Costa which has a relatively low covid death count put in their lockdowns because, apparently, that how five supervisors felt. There was no public debate. Their decision was arbitrary.
As this pandemic progresses, shouldn't state and county politicians explain their decisions by exposing all of the relevant data so that open or not open mandates can be debated?

---

Decisions makers are working under imperfect information and imperfect models, and I don't thimble then are doing anything to be malicious. Take Newsom who you mentioned. Given the impact on the tax base of not relaxing restrictions on business, libs like Newsom have incentives to open things up as quickly as possible in a manner that makes people feel safe to go to stores and work, because the alternative is even greater budget deficits and greater public cuts,. If you are liberal like Newsom, closing down things too long runs against your big government philosophy, because your tax base deteriorates even more. But sure, Newsom should be asked about the basis for his decisions. The problem is the media discusses nail salons, not the deficit.

I am peeved that the administration pumps tons of money into the economy and will only spend a fraction of such to fight the virus. I feel as though they want to perpetuate the myth that virus will go away on its own, and I fear they do it for the primary purpose of economic recovery induced reelection while risking people's lives.

another tweet:

Fauci warns of dire effects of states failing to follow reopening guidelines - Axios


https://www.axios.com/fauci-senate-hearing-coronavirus-reopen-america-e544c497-0e17-4b83-a59c-56213dd1c657.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&stream=top

GBear4Life said:

---

people are actually trying to argue that the SIP didn't exacerbate the recession. Amazing.

---

I think the difference is that if the economic output dropped by 80%, you believe sip is responsible for 50% of the drop and the virus impacting economic patterns was responsible for the other 50%, whereas other people believe the virus is responsible for 80% of the drop and the sip is responsible for the other 20%. I agree these situations require different responses, and I haven't seen anything definitive as to what the actual numbers are, but based on the articles I read and people I've met and what I've seen firsthand I think it is closer to the 80/20 split.

Ps: obviously the numbers are all hypothetical

golden sloth said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

people are actually trying to argue that the SIP didn't exacerbate the recession. Amazing.

---

I think the difference is that if the economic output dropped by 80%, you believe sip is responsible for 50% of the drop and the virus impacting economic patterns was responsible for the other 50%, whereas other people believe the virus is responsible for 80% of the drop and the sip is responsible for the other 20%. I agree these situations require different responses, and I haven't seen anything definitive as to what the actual numbers are, but based on the articles I read and people I've met and what I've seen firsthand I think it is closer to the 80/20 split.

Ps: obviously the numbers are all hypothetical

---

I think flight travel still takes a huge hit regardless, but restaurants and in-town socializing don't fall off a cliff.

The SIP will impact behavior post-SIP in a way that never would have occurred if there was no SIP to begin with.

Unlike kelly09, I actively seek out opinions that make me want to vomit:

Behind Trump's Strategic Pivot Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/behind-trumps-strategic-pivot-138534


...and another:

Coexistence with China or Cold War II? Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/coexistence-with-china-or-cold-war-ii-138549

GBear4Life said:

---

golden sloth said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

people are actually trying to argue that the SIP didn't exacerbate the recession. Amazing.

---

I think the difference is that if the economic output dropped by 80%, you believe sip is responsible for 50% of the drop and the virus impacting economic patterns was responsible for the other 50%, whereas other people believe the virus is responsible for 80% of the drop and the sip is responsible for the other 20%. I agree these situations require different responses, and I haven't seen anything definitive as to what the actual numbers are, but based on the articles I read and people I've met and what I've seen firsthand I think it is closer to the 80/20 split.

Ps: obviously the numbers are all hypothetical

---

I think flight travel still takes a huge hit regardless, but restaurants and in-town socializing don't fall off a cliff.

The SIP will impact behavior post-SIP in a way that never would have occurred if there was no SIP to begin with.

---

That last sentence is true but that is not a bad thing. This was a wake up call. And some of the things I started to do (like order groceries online) I am really warming up to. Will that mean lots of grocery checkers will lose their jobs? Possibly. It is all very complex.