dimitrig said:

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Has Trump ever succeeded at anything? I guess he won the Presidential election, but it's not a resounding success when one receives 4M fewer votes. Did his game show get good ratings? If so, maybe he has that.

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lol

LMK5 said:

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BearChemist said:

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LMK5 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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LMK5 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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LMK5 said:

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Sweden is no longer the favored child of the MSM. They've gone their own way on this and they've now become the redheaded stepchild. Their health score, according to covidly.com is a "7." The US just went from a "6" to a "7" this morning. The notable difference? No lockdown in Sweden. Their ability to live while we hunker down really bothers some people. No one wants to give them any credit for attaining the same results without the economic damage the locked down nations are experiencing. We should wonder why.

---

I assume you just haven't had time to update us, but covidly has since downgraded both Sweden and the US from 7 to 6. Would like to understand what you think this means LMK5 and whether this should shed some light on what you consider to be a successful management by Sweden of the pandemic.

Just a reminder that Sweden is about the size of the Bay Area and they just had another triple digit death day whereas we are averaging 5 deaths per day.

While we are talking about Sweden would also be great to have LMK5 explain to us how Sweden's economy is doing. According to this article (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html), things don't look so good. But we need to withhold judgment until LMK5 weighs in since he seems to have a pretty good handle on things.

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Did I just hear of an impending divorce? Has the left now ostracized Sweden after upholding them as a paragon of virtue for decades? And hear I thought the marriage was on sound footing.

Don't you find it interesting that they have the same health score as us without a lockdown? How can it even be close? I though that if someone was going by the science and data that meant that we would all be doing the same thing. Numbers don't lie, right? Is their chief epidemiologist missing something that's right in front of him? Are the Swedes protesting in front of his house?

You keep talking about deaths, as if that's the only stat to look at. OK, I'll play along. New Jersey is smaller than Sweden, is in lockdown, and they've had 457 deaths in the last 24 hours. OK your turn.

You think the lockdown comes for free? It doesn't. If your job security was tenuous, trust me, your views would suddenly become more balanced. Do you care that kids aren't in school where they belong? Do you care that millions are unemployed? Do you care about increased child abuse and domestic violence? How about obesity and alcoholism? How about lack of available medical care for serious conditions? All are prices for the lockdown that CNN won't dare to mention. And the best you can do is say that we're winning because Sweden has more deaths than the Bay Area? You're out of order, counselor.

What needs to be explained is how, without a lockdown, Sweden isn't having a catastrophe. I'm sure there's a scientific explanation for it, somewhere. If you mine the data hard enough ....

---

So much disinformation from you. As always it's unclear whether you are doing so purposefully or if you are another victim of Tucker Carlson.

First - the "love affair" with Sweden as I understand it related to their social safety net, which is even more valuable during a pandemic. If anything has changed, it's republicans once again showing that their ideology is paper thin. The "left" can still criticize a country's leaders for making poor decisions, regardless of their approval for the country's social platform.

Do you have evidence that Sweden isn't having a catastrophe or economic devastation from a lockdown? Healthwise, they are predicted to have 4x the per capita death totals of Italy and Spain. They are predicted to have 7x the death totals of California, a state that is 4x the size of Sweden. Economically, they are seeing devastation which isn't surprising since they have taken measures. All mass gatherings are banned. High schools and colleges are closed. Restaurants are social distancing. According to the Swedish "expert" on Tucker Carlson last night, Sweden has accepted that COVID isn't going away anytime soon and that they will have to deal with it for the long haul and basically that their economy will have long-term repercussions.
Have Republicans accepted that? Has LMK5?

Please explain to me how this is positive news for Sweden's approach:

Quote:

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But one thing is clear: Keeping its economy "open" wasn't enough to spare Sweden a recession. In fact, the Swedish economy is shrinking just as rapidly as its neighbors. Finland and Denmark, both of which imposed lockdowns, will see their economies contract by 6 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, this year, according to recent IMF projections. Sweden's central bank released two estimates for the nation's 2020 GDP this week: In the more optimistic scenario, the Riksbank expects growth to fall by 6.9 percent; under less rosy assumptions, it anticipates a 9.7 percent contraction.

---

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Why don't you point out exactly where my disinformation is. Not something that differs from your predictions or opinion. Disinformation only.

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Dude, he highlighted that sentence.

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Huh? Is that all you have? Saying that Sweden isn't having a catastrophe is disinformation? They're in the same boat as everyone else. What I clearly was asking in the post was why isn't their situation far worse than ours since they don't have a lockdown. Since you're chiming in why don't you tell us why the protests are here, not in Stockholm, dude.

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

wifeisafurd said:

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LMK5 said:

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BearChemist said:

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LMK5 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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LMK5 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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LMK5 said:

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Sweden is no longer the favored child of the MSM. They've gone their own way on this and they've now become the redheaded stepchild. Their health score, according to covidly.com is a "7." The US just went from a "6" to a "7" this morning. The notable difference? No lockdown in Sweden. Their ability to live while we hunker down really bothers some people. No one wants to give them any credit for attaining the same results without the economic damage the locked down nations are experiencing. We should wonder why.

---

I assume you just haven't had time to update us, but covidly has since downgraded both Sweden and the US from 7 to 6. Would like to understand what you think this means LMK5 and whether this should shed some light on what you consider to be a successful management by Sweden of the pandemic.

Just a reminder that Sweden is about the size of the Bay Area and they just had another triple digit death day whereas we are averaging 5 deaths per day.

While we are talking about Sweden would also be great to have LMK5 explain to us how Sweden's economy is doing. According to this article (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html), things don't look so good. But we need to withhold judgment until LMK5 weighs in since he seems to have a pretty good handle on things.

---

Did I just hear of an impending divorce? Has the left now ostracized Sweden after upholding them as a paragon of virtue for decades? And hear I thought the marriage was on sound footing.

Don't you find it interesting that they have the same health score as us without a lockdown? How can it even be close? I though that if someone was going by the science and data that meant that we would all be doing the same thing. Numbers don't lie, right? Is their chief epidemiologist missing something that's right in front of him? Are the Swedes protesting in front of his house?

You keep talking about deaths, as if that's the only stat to look at. OK, I'll play along. New Jersey is smaller than Sweden, is in lockdown, and they've had 457 deaths in the last 24 hours. OK your turn.

You think the lockdown comes for free? It doesn't. If your job security was tenuous, trust me, your views would suddenly become more balanced. Do you care that kids aren't in school where they belong? Do you care that millions are unemployed? Do you care about increased child abuse and domestic violence? How about obesity and alcoholism? How about lack of available medical care for serious conditions? All are prices for the lockdown that CNN won't dare to mention. And the best you can do is say that we're winning because Sweden has more deaths than the Bay Area? You're out of order, counselor.

What needs to be explained is how, without a lockdown, Sweden isn't having a catastrophe. I'm sure there's a scientific explanation for it, somewhere. If you mine the data hard enough ....

---

So much disinformation from you. As always it's unclear whether you are doing so purposefully or if you are another victim of Tucker Carlson.

First - the "love affair" with Sweden as I understand it related to their social safety net, which is even more valuable during a pandemic. If anything has changed, it's republicans once again showing that their ideology is paper thin. The "left" can still criticize a country's leaders for making poor decisions, regardless of their approval for the country's social platform.

Do you have evidence that Sweden isn't having a catastrophe or economic devastation from a lockdown? Healthwise, they are predicted to have 4x the per capita death totals of Italy and Spain. They are predicted to have 7x the death totals of California, a state that is 4x the size of Sweden. Economically, they are seeing devastation which isn't surprising since they have taken measures. All mass gatherings are banned. High schools and colleges are closed. Restaurants are social distancing. According to the Swedish "expert" on Tucker Carlson last night, Sweden has accepted that COVID isn't going away anytime soon and that they will have to deal with it for the long haul and basically that their economy will have long-term repercussions.
Have Republicans accepted that? Has LMK5?

Please explain to me how this is positive news for Sweden's approach:

Quote:

---

But one thing is clear: Keeping its economy "open" wasn't enough to spare Sweden a recession. In fact, the Swedish economy is shrinking just as rapidly as its neighbors. Finland and Denmark, both of which imposed lockdowns, will see their economies contract by 6 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, this year, according to recent IMF projections. Sweden's central bank released two estimates for the nation's 2020 GDP this week: In the more optimistic scenario, the Riksbank expects growth to fall by 6.9 percent; under less rosy assumptions, it anticipates a 9.7 percent contraction.

---

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Why don't you point out exactly where my disinformation is. Not something that differs from your predictions or opinion. Disinformation only.

---

Dude, he highlighted that sentence.

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Huh? Is that all you have? Saying that Sweden isn't having a catastrophe is disinformation? They're in the same boat as everyone else. What I clearly was asking in the post was why isn't their situation far worse than ours since they don't have a lockdown. Since you're chiming in why don't you tell us why the protests are here, not in Stockholm, dude.

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

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Well said. They've chosen a more balanced approach and are even keeping schools open. The populace also appears to be onboard with their approach. Success or lack thereof will be known much later, as will ours.

wifeisafurd said:

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

---

This is exactly correct. Sweden's policy is essentially to take the hit now, to "shorten" the curve rather than flatten it, have as little disruption now (modest mitigation policies) and much less disruption later (when they avoid a bad second wave).

In terms of Sweden's economy, even the lesser mitigation measures impose a burden. Add to that the fact that the entire world is in a depression and a small country like Sweden is going to feel economic impacts.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that Sweden's economy is taking a worse hit than other countries. Assuming that's the case, then Sweden wins if for no other reason then they have maintained a much better quality of life and not infringed upon liberty.

Bottom line - many of the so called "experts" were predicting doomsday for Sweden (the same people predicting 250,000 deaths in thh US) and so far - pretty far into the pandemic - nothing approaching that has manifest.

Donald Trump's four-step plan to reopen the US economy and why it will be lethal


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/03/donald-trump-reopen-us-economy-lethal-robert-reich?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

---

This is exactly correct. Sweden's policy is essentially to take the hit now, to "shorten" the curve rather than flatten it, have as little disruption now (modest mitigation policies) and much less disruption later (when they avoid a bad second wave).

In terms of Sweden's economy, even the lesser mitigation measures impose a burden. Add to that the fact that the entire world is in a depression and a small country like Sweden is going to feel economic impacts.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that Sweden's economy is taking a worse hit than other countries. Assuming that's the case, then Sweden wins if for no other reason then they have maintained a much better quality of life and not infringed upon liberty.

Bottom line - many of the so called "experts" were predicting doomsday for Sweden (the same people predicting 250,000 deaths in thh US) and so far - pretty far into the pandemic - nothing approaching that has manifest.

---

There is a lot of misinformation about Sweden's approach. You seem to be implying that Sweden is attempting to get to herd immunity but Sweden's chief epidemiologist has specifically denied that claim. You are correct that they are imposing lesser mitigation measures that impose a burden (no mass gatherings, colleges and high schools closed, among other things) which many people fail to mention.

I would say it's far too soon to say that the US won't approach 250,000 deaths. If we open the country now, it's not out of the question. We are certainly hurtling toward 100k deaths. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Trump administration didn't even think we would get to 60k and now we are a few days away from 70k.

Here's a pretty evenhanded article about Sweden's approach.

Some select quotes:

Quote:

---

Tegnell [Sweden's chief epidemiologist] insists herd immunity is not Sweden's strategy. "Herd immunity is not a policy, it's a status you can achieve," Tegnell said. "We want as few people to get infected as possible, at a slow pace, so the health system can cope."

Tegnell said in a briefing that the country's policies in the pandemic were informed by science but also by the way Swedes have always valued independence. "It's a long tradition that works very well," said Tegnell. But not everyone is on board with the approach.

---

Quote:

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The Swedes brokered a different deal than the rest of the world: Citizens take individual responsibility for social distancing, and the government keeps most of society functioning. There are some ruleshigh schools and universities are closed, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, and people over 70 and those who feel ill are encouraged to stay home. But businesses largely remain open, and children who would otherwise need care are in school.

Citizens seems to be taking their responsibility seriously. Residents point out that they are practicing social distancing, with the elderly isolated, and families mostly staying home, apart from kids in school. Citymapper statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%; the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway. Lovin told the BBC it is a "myth that Sweden has not taken serious steps."

---

Here's my current feelings on the pandemic.

People have been given more than enough valid information on COVID-19. At this point, the choice of living or dying is literally on them. And people stupid enough to believe that it's a hoax deserve what's coming to them.

And to quickly establish that it's a hoax, I would require that all federal elected officials go spend a day on a beach in Florida as part of a fact-finding mission to find out whether the corona-virus actually exists or not. Any federal official not willing to do a personal fact-finding mission to find the truth of a matter deserves impeachment.

Kern County just dropped enforcement of Newsom's orders. This should be interesting from a legal standpoint.

wifeisafurd said:

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Kern County just dropped enforcement of Newsom's orders. This should be interesting from a legal standpoint.

---

As far as I can tell all it really means is that non-essential businesses can open up if they wish.

It's going to be really interesting to see what happens the next couple of weeks across this country - particularly before we have any signal from tests to quantify the spread of the virus. I don't think we are going to see anything remotely resembling normal.

Restaurants will be crowded in a few places but generally empty. The devastation for small business will continue due to caution and social distancing. Perhaps people will go on road trips and we will see vacation area crowds return in some places. There is obviously a lot of pent up demand for vacation. My company has been discussing how to have people take PTO when we return to work - everyone has missed planned vacations that they would have taken over the last few months but we can't have everyone in this country take vacation at the same time!

I think we are mostly going to see what we have been seeing. Maybe without the protests.

dimitrig said:

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bearister said:

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No leadership and no plan: is Trump about to fail the US on coronavirus testing?


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/02/donald-trump-us-coronavirus-testing?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

---

Has Trump ever succeeded at anything? I guess he won the Presidential election, but it's not a resounding success when one receives 4M fewer votes. Did his game show get good ratings? If so, maybe he has that.

---

Let me tell you: I followed the rise of The Apprentice closely (and before that, the rise of Survivor) in my work.

And in the spring of 2004, The Apprentice was massive. There were like a bazillion articles on it, especially in newspaper business sections.

But they ran 2 seasons a year, so eventually ratings dropped. It was still a hit, but Trump would claim to have the No. 1 hit on TV. Reporters would try to correct him, but then he'd say, "well, that's what I've been told."

After 4 years, The Apprentice ratings fell so much that they went to the "Celebrity Apprentice" format.

By spring of 2015, Trump's final season (shortly before he ran for president), he had about 6 million, which was bad then but not bad now.

My concern is that the flu will disappear over summer and people will take that as a sign to stop wearing masks and taking other precautions, but that it will return in the fall.

We are seeing that even in China the virus has not been beaten as it has spread to Harbin. China locked the entire city down even though there are "just 63 confirmed cases of covid-19, plus another 17 asymptomatic cases."

"Forget flattening the curve, China wants no curve." China has the most experience with this virus so why do we refuse to learn from them?

https://www.economist.com/china/2020/04/30/china-plans-to-crush-new-covid-outbreaks-with-tough-measures

Also from this article:

"A new paper in the Journal of Medical Virology, by Yong Feng and others, examines serological tests conducted on 1,402 people at a single hospital in Wuhan in April, after the epidemic's peak. Most were locals needing test certificates to return to work. Overall, one-tenth tested positive for covid antibodies. Wuhan's population is 11m. Even allowing for false positives and a sample skewed by the inclusion of almost 400 hospital patients, very large numbers were clearly infected at some point, many without knowing it."

This shows that China's official numbers are BS. 84,000 cases my arse.

dimitrig said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Kern County just dropped enforcement of Newsom's orders. This should be interesting from a legal standpoint.

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As far as I can tell all it really means is that non-essential businesses can open up if they wish.

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Most of this county is the 23rd District who elected Kevin McCarthy as their Rep. The same Kevin McCarty who is the House Minority Leader and an ardent supporter of Captain Catastrophe.

Unit2Sucks said:

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I think we are mostly going to see what we have been seeing. Maybe without the protests.

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That likely is where this ends-up, with perhaps some more openness.

There will always be those who take on risks (especially those younger). They will go to beach, sit in the coffee shops, go to Vegas. And there are some things that may be within risk tolerances. I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing. And there are always those early adaptor types, who will go somewhere if there is a new, safer way to do things (sort like going to Trader Joe's instead of the local grocery store because TJ has more careful procedure in place).

But for most of us, we will be very selective for a while and see what happens. If there is no spike in cases, we will be willing to do more. But I'm not going to a restaurant or a gym any time soon. Nor am I going to a resort with a lot of people. The people I know feel the same way. I know this antidotal, but I suspect a lot of people think this way.

I don't see most people taking time off, unless it is to go hiking in the Rockies/Wasatch or something away from people. The major resorts (other than Vegas, Cancun or other places the young go) are in for a long, dry spell.

wifeisafurd said:

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...I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing.....

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Perhaps your barber/hair stylist could modify this. It has 16 feet of extension:



*He might even pull off a manscape with some trial and error.

bearister said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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...I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing.....

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Perhaps your barber/hair stylist could modify this. It has 16 feet of extension:



*He might even pull off a manscape with some trial and error.

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You know, my hair is getting so long and un-tame, this might just work.

bearister said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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...I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing.....

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Perhaps your barber/hair stylist could modify this. It has 16 feet of extension:



*He might even pull off a manscape with some trial and error.

---

like you Bearrister
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/another_bombshell_about_flynn__and_it_may_reach_up_to_obama_and_biden.html

kelly09 said:

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bearister said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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...I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing.....

---

Perhaps your barber/hair stylist could modify this. It has 16 feet of extension:



*He might even pull off a manscape with some trial and error.

---

like you Bearrister
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/05/another_bombshell_about_flynn__and_it_may_reach_up_to_obama_and_biden.html

---

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/03/nolte-they-told-us-lockdowns-were-about-flattening-the-curve-they-lied/ This also for you, Bearrister

You need to broaden your websites. You are stuck in The Bubble.

bearister said:

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You need to broaden your websites. You are stuck in The Bubble.

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One of the reasons I like Kelly is because he isn't changing for anyone. He's authentic, which I appreciate, even if I disagree with him on almost everything.

bearister said:

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You need to broaden your websites. You are stuck in The Bubble.

---

brief diversion, sorry Bearister, can't resist remembering 2001's Bubble Boy farce, by Maggie's younger bother Jake (before Nightcrawler and Donnie Darko classics) if only for the supporting cast..

When I heard "Take your top off," I lost my sh@it.

Unit2Sucks said:

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BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

---

This is exactly correct. Sweden's policy is essentially to take the hit now, to "shorten" the curve rather than flatten it, have as little disruption now (modest mitigation policies) and much less disruption later (when they avoid a bad second wave).

In terms of Sweden's economy, even the lesser mitigation measures impose a burden. Add to that the fact that the entire world is in a depression and a small country like Sweden is going to feel economic impacts.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that Sweden's economy is taking a worse hit than other countries. Assuming that's the case, then Sweden wins if for no other reason then they have maintained a much better quality of life and not infringed upon liberty.

Bottom line - many of the so called "experts" were predicting doomsday for Sweden (the same people predicting 250,000 deaths in thh US) and so far - pretty far into the pandemic - nothing approaching that has manifest.

---

There is a lot of misinformation about Sweden's approach. You seem to be implying that Sweden is attempting to get to herd immunity but Sweden's chief epidemiologist has specifically denied that claim. You are correct that they are imposing lesser mitigation measures that impose a burden (no mass gatherings, colleges and high schools closed, among other things) which many people fail to mention.

I would say it's far too soon to say that the US won't approach 250,000 deaths. If we open the country now, it's not out of the question. We are certainly hurtling toward 100k deaths. As has been pointed out elsewhere, the Trump administration didn't even think we would get to 60k and now we are a few days away from 70k.

Here's a pretty evenhanded article about Sweden's approach.

Some select quotes:

Quote:

---

Tegnell [Sweden's chief epidemiologist] insists herd immunity is not Sweden's strategy. "Herd immunity is not a policy, it's a status you can achieve," Tegnell said. "We want as few people to get infected as possible, at a slow pace, so the health system can cope."

Tegnell said in a briefing that the country's policies in the pandemic were informed by science but also by the way Swedes have always valued independence. "It's a long tradition that works very well," said Tegnell. But not everyone is on board with the approach.

---

Quote:

---

The Swedes brokered a different deal than the rest of the world: Citizens take individual responsibility for social distancing, and the government keeps most of society functioning. There are some ruleshigh schools and universities are closed, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, and people over 70 and those who feel ill are encouraged to stay home. But businesses largely remain open, and children who would otherwise need care are in school.

Citizens seems to be taking their responsibility seriously. Residents point out that they are practicing social distancing, with the elderly isolated, and families mostly staying home, apart from kids in school. Citymapper statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in Stockholm. Travel over the Easter weekend dropped more than 90%; the government did not tell ski resorts to close for Easter, a popular ski holiday time, but the resorts closed anyway. Lovin told the BBC it is a "myth that Sweden has not taken serious steps."

---

---

The models were projecting total deaths through early August (I believe 8/4/20). There is very little chance the US deaths reach 250,000 by that date. Even if you project deaths at the highest weekly amount (10-12,000 per week from a few weeks back), we wont reach that level. And, as you know, the current death rate is less than 10,000 per week and seemingly on the decline (for now).

In terms of the Trump admin's projections, they have been all over the place, starting way too high and then landing too low. Primarily because the so called experts (Fauci, Birx, etc.) have simply regurgitated the very flawed models. The irony, of course, is that people accuse Trump of not following the science. In this case, his admin has (by using the model numbers) and they're being criticized for that too.

In terms of Sweden, I was not making a herd immunity argument per se. That might happen but it might not. My point was simply that their strategy should shorten the time period in which they have illness - they are doing the opposite of flattening the curve and taking the hit up front - ripping the band aid off so to speak. That strategy assumes there some level of immunity will build up (i.e., no immediate reinfections) though not necessary assume full herd immunity.

The problem in the US is that flattening the curve has now - for some strange reason - been conflated with the goal of preventing deaths at all cost (or at least a tolerance for an incredibly high cost). The primary argument for flattening/shelter in place was to ensure medical resources were not overrun and to allow time for resources to be increased. We've done that and we now know a bit more about the virus itself (i.e., who is most at risk),

Its time to mitigate, accept the risks going forward and restore our liberties and the economy. 30% unemployment and the other effects are far worse than what the virus can do going forward.

BearGoggles said:

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The models were projecting total deaths through early August (I believe 8/4/20). There is very little chance the US deaths reach 250,000 by that date. Even if you project deaths at the highest weekly amount (10-12,000 per week from a few weeks back), we wont reach that level. And, as you know, the current death rate is less than 10,000 per week and seemingly on the decline (for now).

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I'm just going to address this one point. Of course I agree that we won't reach 250,000 deaths in the next 13 weeks, because that would require us to average 2k per day over that period. But I don't think we are a slam dunk to remain below that over the next say 10 months for a number of reasons.

First - we still don't really know what the death total is. Based on some excess death calculations, we could already be at 100k dead. It's also possible we've overcounted by some amount - perhaps 10k and that we have fewer than 60k dead at this point. Only time will tell.

Second - if we fail as a society to effectively address the spread though social distancing and other measures, it will come back and bite us. As everyone is aware, people in this country want to return to some sort of normalcy and normalcy provides opportunities for COVID to spread. We have done a pretty good job with the SIP orders in limiting the spread, but we have not defeated it. We still don't have a vaccine or effective treatments.

We are 1/3 of our way to 250k dead from this virus and I don't think it's possible to say that we are more than 1/3 of the way through the pandemic in this country. It will depend on what we do from here on out.

Birx said pretty clearly today that we aren't out of the woods yet and that 250k still assumes we are doing some social distancing.

Stanford Jonah said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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bearister said:

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You need to broaden your websites. You are stuck in The Bubble.

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One of the reasons I like Kelly is because he isn't changing for anyone. He's authentic, which I appreciate, even if I disagree with him on almost everything.

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If stupidity counts as authenticity, then yes.

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Stanford Jonah,,are you really Concordtom? And bearrister, you are not stuck in your own Bubble?

Stanford Jonah
calling people with whom you disagree stupid is.....STUPID.

wifeisafurd said:

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bearister said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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...I might get a haircut if my barber is wearing a mask and gloves, and the shop is respecting social spacing.....

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Perhaps your barber/hair stylist could modify this. It has 16 feet of extension:



*He might even pull off a manscape with some trial and error.

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You know, my hair is getting so long and un-tame, this might just work.

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Why don't we just find out who Newsom's barber is? He appears to be working.

BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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There is a lot of disinformation. Sweden may not be on lockdown, but they are doing social distancing, masks (at least in urban areas), isolating those with serious conditions, etc. Its not a free for all like in Huntington Beach.

The idea is not to prevent the infection, but to have enough of the population infected, hopefully with few symptoms, so that when COVID returns, the population has sufficient anti-bodies, and thus the pandemic won't be able to spread or spread that much. So we really won't know if the Swedes got it right in the long run until next fall. Everything else is conjecture. Which is pretty much what you get in the media and on this board anyway.

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This is exactly correct. Sweden's policy is essentially to take the hit now, to "shorten" the curve rather than flatten it, have as little disruption now (modest mitigation policies) and much less disruption later (when they avoid a bad second wave).

In terms of Sweden's economy, even the lesser mitigation measures impose a burden. Add to that the fact that the entire world is in a depression and a small country like Sweden is going to feel economic impacts.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that Sweden's economy is taking a worse hit than other countries. Assuming that's the case, then Sweden wins if for no other reason then they have maintained a much better quality of life and not infringed upon liberty.

Bottom line - many of the so called "experts" were predicting doomsday for Sweden (the same people predicting 250,000 deaths in thh US) and so far - pretty far into the pandemic - nothing approaching that has manifest.

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Has anyone been studying the Swedish models closely? Apparently Social Distancing presents real challenges there.

nice guns

smh said:

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nice guns

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Some have said that the Swedish models are controversial and have given rise to a bone of contention among medical experts.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/495833-how-to-open-society-using-medical-science-and-logic?rnd=1588469307

Unit2Sucks said:

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BearGoggles said:

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The models were projecting total deaths through early August (I believe 8/4/20). There is very little chance the US deaths reach 250,000 by that date. Even if you project deaths at the highest weekly amount (10-12,000 per week from a few weeks back), we wont reach that level. And, as you know, the current death rate is less than 10,000 per week and seemingly on the decline (for now).

---

I'm just going to address this one point. Of course I agree that we won't reach 250,000 deaths in the next 13 weeks, because that would require us to average 2k per day over that period. But I don't think we are a slam dunk to remain below that over the next say 10 months for a number of reasons.

---

Quoting myself to update a prior post after reading an article in the NYT this morning. According to the NYT, FEMA (which, for those who don't know, is an agency run by Trump) is projecting a rise in cases and deaths peaking at ~3k daily deaths by June 1. This would definitely call into question whether we may actually exceed 250k by August and in any event is quite troubling. If you look at the death projections in the report itself, you can see there is a broad range so hopefully we come in quite low. Nonetheless, it certainly seems worth noting.

Quote:

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The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

"There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow," the C.D.C. warned.
The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.

See the internal report.

"While mitigation didn't fail, I think it's fair to say that it didn't work as well as we expected," Scott Gottlieb, Mr. Trump's former commissioner of food and drugs, said Sunday on the CBS program Face the Nation. "We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we're just not seeing that."

On Sunday, Mr. Trump said deaths in the United States could reach 100,000, twice as many as he had forecast just two weeks ago. But his new estimate still underestimates what his own administration is now predicting to be the total death toll by the end of May much less in the months that follow. It follows a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently understated the impact of the disease.

"We're going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people," he said in a virtual town hall on Fox News. "That's a horrible thing. We shouldn't lose one person over this."

Mr. Gottlieb said Americans "may be facing the prospect that 20,000, 30,000 new cases a day diagnosed becomes the new normal."

Some states that have partially reopened are still seeing an increase in cases, including Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas, according to Times data. Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska also are seeing an increase in cases and reopened some businesses on Monday. Alaska has also reopened and is seeing a small number of increasing cases.

While the country has stabilized, it has not really improved, as shown by data collected by The Times. Case and death numbers remain stuck on a numbing, tragic plateau that is tilting only slightly downward.

At least 1,000 people with the virus, and sometimes more than 2,000, have died every day for the last month. On a near-daily basis, at least 25,000 new cases of the virus are being identified across the country. And even as New York City, New Orleans and Detroit have shown improvement, other urban centers, including Chicago and Los Angeles, are reporting steady growth in cases.

The situation has devolved most dramatically in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country's largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita.

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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BearGoggles said:

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The models were projecting total deaths through early August (I believe 8/4/20). There is very little chance the US deaths reach 250,000 by that date. Even if you project deaths at the highest weekly amount (10-12,000 per week from a few weeks back), we wont reach that level. And, as you know, the current death rate is less than 10,000 per week and seemingly on the decline (for now).

---

I'm just going to address this one point. Of course I agree that we won't reach 250,000 deaths in the next 13 weeks, because that would require us to average 2k per day over that period. But I don't think we are a slam dunk to remain below that over the next say 10 months for a number of reasons.

---

Quoting myself to update a prior post after reading an article in the NYT this morning. According to the NYT, FEMA (which, for those who don't know, is an agency run by Trump) is projecting a rise in cases and deaths peaking at ~3k daily deaths by June 1. This would definitely call into question whether we may actually exceed 250k by August and in any event is quite troubling. If you look at the death projections in the report itself, you can see there is a broad range so hopefully we come in quite low. Nonetheless, it certainly seems worth noting.

Quote:

---

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

"There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow," the C.D.C. warned.
The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.

See the internal report.

"While mitigation didn't fail, I think it's fair to say that it didn't work as well as we expected," Scott Gottlieb, Mr. Trump's former commissioner of food and drugs, said Sunday on the CBS program Face the Nation. "We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we're just not seeing that."

On Sunday, Mr. Trump said deaths in the United States could reach 100,000, twice as many as he had forecast just two weeks ago. But his new estimate still underestimates what his own administration is now predicting to be the total death toll by the end of May much less in the months that follow. It follows a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently understated the impact of the disease.

"We're going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people," he said in a virtual town hall on Fox News. "That's a horrible thing. We shouldn't lose one person over this."

Mr. Gottlieb said Americans "may be facing the prospect that 20,000, 30,000 new cases a day diagnosed becomes the new normal."

Some states that have partially reopened are still seeing an increase in cases, including Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas, according to Times data. Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska also are seeing an increase in cases and reopened some businesses on Monday. Alaska has also reopened and is seeing a small number of increasing cases.

While the country has stabilized, it has not really improved, as shown by data collected by The Times. Case and death numbers remain stuck on a numbing, tragic plateau that is tilting only slightly downward.

At least 1,000 people with the virus, and sometimes more than 2,000, have died every day for the last month. On a near-daily basis, at least 25,000 new cases of the virus are being identified across the country. And even as New York City, New Orleans and Detroit have shown improvement, other urban centers, including Chicago and Los Angeles, are reporting steady growth in cases.

The situation has devolved most dramatically in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country's largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita.

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Many people never really took this very seriously and now states are reopening even as the number of new cases is rising.

This morning here in Southern California we have kids riding bikes while a gardener is mowing a lawn. A chihuahua got loose and a bunch of neighbors caught it. They went door-to-door to try to find the owner. Someone is working on restoring an old VW van in his driveway and someone else is sanding and painting the trim on his house. (Actually, all of the neighborhood activity is driving me crazy but that's another topic.) There's always a long line at the Starbucks drive through. This isn't a lockdown.

One of my aunts lives in France. She is allowed to leave the house to go to the grocery store or the pharmacy one day per week. Otherwise, she needs to stay at home. That means no going for walks or to a cafe for a to-go order or anything like that. Even Amazon is only allowed to deliver "food, hygiene and medical products" on threat of a $1M per day fine. That's what a real lockdown is like.

We have a lot of narcissists and whiners in this country and those people are prolonging our collective misery.

Europeans have a lot more faith in their government than Americans. France's edicts to your Aunt wouldn't fly here