Cal88 said:
Unit2Sucks said:
We have it on very good authority (from @Cal88) that the virus is going to virtually disappear from the US by mid-July just like it did in Europe.
It did bottom out in Europe, if you look at ICU hospitalizations and deaths. Your approach conflating new cases through massive testing with unreliable PCR tests as opposed to ICU hospitalizations and deaths is kind of dumb and alarmist.
Look. Seriously. Why don't you let go of your little "I'm right" trophy that you lost a long time ago and have some humility. No one expected you to be the Covid expert. No one expects anyone to get everything or anything right. Based on a ridiculously outsized prediction of deaths in the first place, taking data from the Spanish Flu epidemic that was not analogous, you predicted serious measures would be put in place when others didn't see it coming. Of course most people didn't look at how wrong you were, just in the right direction, but fine. You were King Covid.
You should have Costanza'd this. But you enjoyed your mantle too much and flew too close to the sun. You can't just look at a bunch of charts and become a better expert than epidemiologists. None of us here can. You had to start making predictions and start arguing with certainty what was going to happen.
You didn't predict that Europe would bottom out. You can see that in the charts that both you and Unit posted in relation to your statement. You simply read the data that Europe HAD ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT. You weren't "right" about that as were all of us who could read a basic chart. You just read what everyone else could read at the time. Your problem was that you extrapolated from that data that the US would bottom out a few weeks later. At the time, I made no predictions. What I argued to you was that you could not predict either. I pointed out some differences in the US that might lead to different outcomes. Or might not. That we still need to be concerned. "No" you said. End of July. "Bank on it"
Basically, you said the US deaths would be a trickle by July because of Europe's data. I specifically warned you at the time that the virus hits regions, not countries. That the virus had most likely run its course in New York and the surrounding hard hit areas and their curve would likely follow Europe because it already was following Europe, but that cases were rising in OTHER areas. New York wasn't so much a prediction at that point. It was simply reading what had already happened. No, you said, the increased cases elsewhere was increased testing (though the numbers did not support that the entire rise in cases was due to increased testing), end of July, bank on it. That anyone that believed the US would follow a different curve from Europe was engaging in magical thinking.
Then when it became clear deaths didn't slow to a trickle in July, you tried to CYA by saying you were talking about the Northeast and you didn't anticipate the virus picking up in other areas. Except that was the whole thrust of the conversation where you said the rest of us were engaging in magical thinking.
You have twice moved the goalposts on when deaths will become a trickle, and they haven't yet.
Now this post is your most misleading yet. You never predicted Europe would bottom out. You just stated the obvious that Europe had bottomed out. You continually try to reformulate what you said to distract from the main point that you predicted the US death toll would slow to a trickle, that you climbed on your high horse and told everyone that you had been right in February and March and you were right now. You put down everyone that was being cautious and not trying to make predictions. And then you were hopelessly wrong.
Now, not only do you post this to claim the argument in the summer was something that it wasn't, you cherrypick your evidence in the most disgraceful of ways. Europe is clearly hitting a new surge. The UK, Spain, and France have seen dramatic increases in hospitalizations and deaths. Units chart clearly shows what is going on in the EU as a whole. But you post a chart from only Sweden because Sweden has yet to see a second surge. (whether it will or not, who knows). You know full well that much of Europe has seen a dramatic increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
Throughout this process you have posted cherrypicked and bad data to make false points. You post data that is 2 months old. You find one country or region that supports your point when you know the data across the board does not. I'm sorry, but this is disgraceful. You are simply posting known disinformation to try and keep your ego stroking alive. Posting complete bullshyte to try and win an argument when it is so important people have accurate information is about the worst thing I have seen on this board.
Being wrong is not the problem. I have been wrong many times throughout this process. Even back in the summer I told you I agreed with some of your predictions but what I disagreed with is you pronouncing them as fact and being so sure that you were right about what was going to happen. Every time I agreed with a prediction of yours, I was wrong. But the difference is, that I knew they were guesses and I maintained we keep all scenarios open and read the data as it came.
That you would post an effing chart from one effing small country is just effing embarrassing.
Here is what we know. Europe got it before we did, ran through a curve and bottomed out. The US never bottomed out. The virus just hopped from region to region. Cases counts went up in part due to increased testing but the total increase in many areas did not match the increased testing rates. The southern US had its daily death figures rise significantly. They have started to plateau. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest has now seen a dramatic rise in cases. Daily death rates have started to follow suit and there is real reason to be concerned they will go through what the southern part of the US went through in the summer, but we don't know. There are possible explanations that are concerning, like there is a possible correlation with increased indoor activity (Southern US being very hot people staying indoors in the summer. Northern US being cold, people start to stay indoors more in the winter). Or colleges going back. Or a lot of things we don't know. But the numbers are the numbers.
We also know that Europe that was down to virtually nothing is seeing a tremendous spike not just in cases but in hospitalizations and deaths. France and the UK and Spain, having seemingly beaten it, are running daily death rates per capita that are approaching the US rates and they are going up. Some places in Europe that didn't see a big first wave are showing some concerning signs.
Does this mean we are going to see a significant second wave in the US? I don't know. Does it mean we are going to sit on this plateau of like 700-1000 deaths a day. I don't know. People should be concerned. Your continuing to blow sunshine up everyone's ass because you don't want to relinquish the King Covid title is a huge disservice.
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