COVID disappears Nov 4th?

133,656 Views | 1376 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by B.A. Bearacus
bearister
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Big C said:

dajo9 said:

There is clearly some weather component to the virus. If you look at infection rates of the last 7 days, of the highest 21 states, they are all winter weather states except for one - Florida (11th highest infection rate). Currently California ranks 48th (as in 3rd lowest infection rate). More research and analysis is needed of how the weather affects the virus. And it probably isn't even the weather affecting the virus, but rather the weather affecting human behavior. There is no outdoor dining in New Jersey in February. New Jersey ranks #2, only behind Michigan, #1. The next highest warm weather state is South Carolina at #22. The best states with wintery weather have very low population densities (Kansas, New Mexico).

Too much focus is placed on governance and not enough on these other uncontrollable factors. The state governances we should be looking at are the states that are outliers (good and bad) relative to their weather and population density norms.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states

This. Indoors bad; outdoors good. This also explains why Florida and Arizona had their bad waves in the middle of the summer last year (lotsa time in air conditioned -- but not air filtered -- rooms).


Well, that and having a high percentage of citizens that are a$$h@les.
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bearister
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Wearing masks could save at least 14,000 Americans from dying of COVID-19 by August, model predicts | Daily Mail Online


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9457511/Wearing-masks-save-14-000-Americans-dying-COVID-19-August-model-predicts.html
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B.A. Bearacus
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bearister
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"Red states in the South are administering the lowest portion of the vaccine doses that they receive from the federal government a sign of low demand, slow public health systems, or both.

The most vaccine-reluctant Americans are white Republicans, polling has found."

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor- Rural America | KFF


https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-rural-america/
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hanky1
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MSM and public health 'experts' doing everything they can to ensure that COVID never disappears.

dimitrig
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hanky1 said:

MSM and public health 'experts' doing everything they can to ensure that COVID never disappears.




Republicans certainly did their best by refusing to close anything or enforce any sort of mask mandate.
Unit2Sucks
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hanky1 said:



They just need to scare people as much as possible till nov 3, then it'll be 2nd page news.
Oops
Unit2Sucks
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hanky1 said:



I dare you to read this
Oops.
Unit2Sucks
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hanky1 said:

Bear_Territory said:



Is Covid over?



Yes

In the next few months, I expect a slew of studies from 'experts' showing that we overreacted to COVID.
Oops.
Unit2Sucks
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hanky1 said:

bearister said:

Do they have a stat on Young Republican suicides? It seems to be their primary obsession, as opposed to wearing masks and social distancing.
In Sturgis it appeared to be suicide by motorcycle rally. How is that blended into the stats?


339 deaths for those under 60 w/o pre-existing conditions.

You know what you call COVID for that demographic?
The common cold.
Oops.
bearister
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The warning signs of a longer pandemic are playing out in front of us - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-pandemic-variants-vaccines-ffd86d47-2a74-4285-b0d9-4f5a42febf6c.html


Covid pandemic still growing exponentially, WHO says


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/12/covid-pandemic-still-growing-exponentially-who-says?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Big C
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Once we get our arms jabbed, we need to help the rest of the world, big time. Not only is it the right thing to do, it's in our long-term best interests. I'd start with our neighbors to the south.
BeachedBear
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Big C said:


Once we get our arms jabbed, we need to help the rest of the world, big time. Not only is it the right thing to do, it's in our long-term best interests. I'd start with our neighbors to the south.
Stanfurd can get their own damn arms! Same with SC -they suck!

Oh. You meant Mexico. Yup!
B.A. Bearacus
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Britons 75-79 do not mess around.

hanky1
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It's funny how claims I madd a year ago, which appeared untrue at the time, are now proven to be true. It's just common sense, not foresight.

bearister
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" Our research found that the single most important predictor of local mask use last year in the United States was not covid-19 severity. Nor was it demographic characteristics, religious affiliation or social capital, or even local policies such as mask mandates. No - the strongest and most consistent local factor influencing mask use was what percentage of people in an area voted for Donald Trump in 2016. In areas where mostly Democrats reside, people tended to be likelier to wear masks. But the more people in an area who voted for Trump in 2016, the less likely it was that residents there would wear masks." Stamford Advocate

*With his politicization of masks, tRump is the gift that keeps giving. Hopefully the people most negatively effected will be those that were either dumb enough or hateful enough to have voted for him.
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Unit2Sucks
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hanky1 said:

It's funny how claims I madd a year ago, which appeared untrue at the time, are now proven to be true. It's just common sense, not foresight.


It's amazing how you can attempt to spin the fact that you always talk out of your azz and are constantly proven incorrect by pretending that something that says you were off your rocker actually kinda, sorta supports your unfounded opinion.

COVID was the leading cause of death in the UK in 2020 and accounted for 1/8 deaths. Even if you reduce it by some small amount, it would be the leading cause of death and largely could have been prevented had they not done boneheaded things that people like you thought were a good idea - like trying for herd immunity.

It turns out that listening to self-aggrandizing ****p0sters isn't a great idea for public health policy.
BearlyCareAnymore
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hanky1 said:

It's funny how claims I madd a year ago, which appeared untrue at the time, are now proven to be true. It's just common sense, not foresight.


In 2020, preliminary numbers have the total deaths in the US at 3,358,814. That can only go up.

Covid was listed as an underlying cause in 377,883 deaths.

By the way, suicides were down. And I don't think those were mistaken for Covid deaths.

Total deaths in 2019 were 2,854,838
Total deaths in 2018 were 2,839,205
Total deaths in 2017 were 2,813,503

Total deaths were up by 500,000 over the prior year with only one major variable to explain that difference.

If anything, Covid deaths were undercounted.

It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot.
AunBear89
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"It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot."

It's kinda his thing.
dajo9
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OaktownBear said:

hanky1 said:

It's funny how claims I madd a year ago, which appeared untrue at the time, are now proven to be true. It's just common sense, not foresight.


In 2020, preliminary numbers have the total deaths in the US at 3,358,814. That can only go up.

Covid was listed as an underlying cause in 377,883 deaths.

By the way, suicides were down. And I don't think those were mistaken for Covid deaths.

Total deaths in 2019 were 2,854,838
Total deaths in 2018 were 2,839,205
Total deaths in 2017 were 2,813,503

Total deaths were up by 500,000 over the prior year with only one major variable to explain that difference.

If anything, Covid deaths were undercounted.

It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot.


This is exactly why excess mortality is the proper measure and not Covid deaths.
sycasey
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AunBear89 said:

"It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot."

It's kinda his thing.
No one should ever forget that he's the "Aaron Rodger is horrible" guy.
AunBear89
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There's a reason he's known as janky1.
sycasey
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White Supr Black Lesbian said:

sycasey said:

AunBear89 said:

"It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot."

It's kinda his thing.
No one should ever forget that he's the "Aaron Rodger is horrible" guy.
No one should ever forget that you're the guy who said kids couldn't spread the virus


Yogi, I've done some more digging on this cosplay socialist Bragman guy you love to quote. Seems like he's making these kinds of vociferous arguments against school reopenings because he wants the country to follow a "Zero Covid" strategy.



Since you're passing on his every word, I assume you also agree with his Zero Covid stance? I'm trying to square this with some of your previous strident arguments on COVID policy. For example, here you are insisting that indoor restaurants should never have been closed because the evidence wasn't strong enough that COVID could spread in restaurants. And over here you are chastising someone else for asking that COVID death rates fall below flu death rates before reopening should begin.

Now, as far as I know, even with the new variants the COVID death rate for children still doesn't approach that of the flu, yet you take this as evidence that I was wrong about reopening schools. And even though in the US we have a fairly robust vaccination campaign going on that seems to have tamped down outbreaks except in one state (Michigan) you are absolutely willing to run with that one data point to insist that I am wrong about my position (even though I live in California, where we currently see no evidence of any new outbreaks).

How does any of this add up to a consistent position on COVID policy? It couldn't possibly be that in those older posts you were arguing against Democrats who wanted lockdowns to continue, but now that there's a Democratic president who wants to reopen schools you and the rest of the fake socialists you follow had to find a reason to be against that too, could it? This whole Twitter Socialist movement couldn't possibly just be about criticizing Democrats and not about actual workable policy, could it?



Nah, couldn't be.
sycasey
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Blue Cash Matters said:

sycasey said:

White Supr Black Lesbian said:

sycasey said:

AunBear89 said:

"It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot."

It's kinda his thing.
No one should ever forget that he's the "Aaron Rodger is horrible" guy.
No one should ever forget that you're the guy who said kids couldn't spread the virus


Yogi, I've done some more digging on this cosplay socialist Bragman guy you love to quote
Ever notice how I only quote him in response to your posts? Ever think about why that is.

Yeah, it's because you're a combative d*** who cares more about browbeating people than making a positive argument.

Blue Cash Matters said:

It's because YOU are the one with the inconsistent COVID stance.

You and your little mutual admiration society were the ones talking about how people couldn't have Thanksgiving, how they couldn't eat at restaurants, etc. But when it came to getting your kid out of the house, you adopted a hypocritical stance not based in science, but based on hearsay.

Wrong. I said that indoor dining should be closed before schools because (at the time) the scientific evidence showed that COVID could spread in restaurants but hadn't showed it happening in schools. Since then I've acknowledged that the new UK variant shows some evidence that it could spread in schools, so we need to be more careful about adhering to safety protocols and closing schools if we see evidence of an outbreak.

But my consistent stance is that schools should remain open WHEN POSSIBLE. It's also my stance that in a lot of places (like California) schools could have been open a lot sooner than now.

Blue Cash Matters said:

And you kept beating it to death over and over again as you cried about teachers being unreasonable about the risks of reopening and the unions acting in bad faith.

Well guess what? People like me who insisted that teachers and staff who had to work in those environments absolutely positive had to be vaccinated before schools could be reopened were dead on balls accurate. And you, who insisted that it wasn't a risk, were completely wrong.

Except you weren't right. Lots of places have kept schools open without major outbreaks. This supports my position that schools should be open until there's a good reason to close them, not that they should remain closed until all risk has passed. I take this position not because I want my own kid out of the house, but because I believe education is a public good that is not being well-served right now. It amazes me that so-called "progressives" are willing to throw this value out the window when it becomes convenient to their short-term political goals.

Blue Cash Matters said:

You want a good faith argument about where we stand on schools instead of me beating you over the head with your complete and utter hypocrisy on schools reopening. Well here it is.

Yes, that is what I want. The problem is that you always have to lead with beating people over the head and rarely take time get to any substance.

Blue Cash Matters said:

Right now, it's mid-April. School is going to be out in a month and a half. There's zero reason to be rushing into this half-assed hybrid plan that most districts are coming up with. The one that the school district came up with in my community was so bad that almost none of the kids will be attending in person next week when it starts. I can't speak for what the parents in the elementary schools are planning to do, as all the parents I know are people I met when my child was in elementary school. We're high school parents now.

I disagree that there is no point to reopening schools now. For the youngest students especially, every bit of in-person schooling we can get to them is important. I'm willing to compromise on high schoolers, who as a group can probably more easily weather remote learning from a pure educational standpoint. For K-2 students the social learning they get at school is also very important and they've already gone a full year without that.

Blue Cash Matters said:

Where your logic utterly failed is that what Bragman is calling for is a lockdown and for the government to do what all the other governments did and pay people to stay home.

As you can see, it is not a Republican problem that Americans were not paid to do this. It's a bi-partisan problem. Your team couldn't even keep their promise to give people one time non means tested $2,000 checks. They could only stomach a means-tested one time $1,400 check. Our government was not willing to take its hard medicine and do what New Zealand did and has done time and time again. They were the smart ones. We are the ones who put profit ahead of people every time and we're still doing it right now under Biden, same as we were under Trump. The only difference is that Biden is not politicizing masks.

As for do I support a zero-lockdown policy right now? No. The opportunity window for that came and went and our government utterly failed us. The path forward is to get people to vaccinate themselves and return to life. But we're not close to being vaccinated enough yet.

I'm glad you've acknowledged that a Zero Covid policy would be impractical right now. Would I have liked to see that happen here at the beginning of the pandemic? Sure, that would have been great. I can also recognize that it was absolutely not politically feasible at the time.

The problem is that Bragman's arguments are STILL based on his blinkered notion that Zero Covid might actually happen now. That's why I think he's not worth listening to. I'm also not sure why you think continuing to quote him is going to have any effect on my opinions, given that I've already made it quite clear that I don't respect his views.

Blue Cash Matters said:

When the next school year starts and our vaccination numbers are better, then I'm all for having schools reopened. Unfortunately, the local junior college where I take continuing education classes will still be on remote learning in the fall, which is crushing, but I can continue with the remote format even though I much prefer the social component of in-person learning and not having to schedule Zoom meetings with my professors to ask questions.

There simply isn't enough benefit to justify the risk of putting kids together now, many of whom cannot be vaccinated in the near future. All you're doing is creating a population of asymptomatic spreaders who are going to pass it on to the anti-vaxxers or the people under 50 who still aren't eligible.

See above for why I disagree. I think there are pretty obvious benefits for the youngest students and that as a society we should be prioritizing them right now. I also think that if you can't get public schools open now and show that you're committing to a full reopening in the fall, you're creating even bigger long-term problems with enrollment that will linger into the future. Guess what: if school districts don't get good enrollment, they get less money.

Again, we're talking about elementary schools here, not junior colleges.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Blue Cash Matters said:

sycasey said:

White Supr Black Lesbian said:

sycasey said:

AunBear89 said:

"It is funny how every time you claim you are proven right you are proven to be an idiot."

It's kinda his thing.
No one should ever forget that he's the "Aaron Rodger is horrible" guy.
No one should ever forget that you're the guy who said kids couldn't spread the virus


Yogi, I've done some more digging on this cosplay socialist Bragman guy you love to quote
Ever notice how I only quote him in response to your posts? Ever think about why that is.

It's because YOU are the one with the inconsistent COVID stance.

You and your little mutual admiration society were the ones talking about how people couldn't have Thanksgiving, how they couldn't eat at restaurants, etc. But when it came to getting your kid out of the house, you adopted a hypocritical stance not based in science, but based on hearsay.

And you kept beating it to death over and over again as you cried about teachers being unreasonable about the risks of reopening and the unions acting in bad faith.

Well guess what? People like me who insisted that teachers and staff who had to work in those environments absolutely positive had to be vaccinated before schools could be reopened were dead on balls accurate. And you, who insisted that it wasn't a risk, were completely wrong.

You want a good faith argument about where we stand on schools instead of me beating you over the head with your complete and utter hypocrisy on schools reopening. Well here it is.

Right now, it's mid-April. School is going to be out in a month and a half. There's zero reason to be rushing into this half-assed hybrid plan that most districts are coming up with. The one that the school district came up with in my community was so bad that almost none of the kids will be attending in person next week when it starts. I can't speak for what the parents in the elementary schools are planning to do, as all the parents I know are people I met when my child was in elementary school. We're high school parents now.

Where your logic utterly failed is that what Bragman is calling for is a lockdown and for the government to do what all the other governments did and pay people to stay home.

As you can see, it is not a Republican problem that Americans were not paid to do this. It's a bi-partisan problem. Your team couldn't even keep their promise to give people one time non means tested $2,000 checks. They could only stomach a means-tested one time $1,400 check. Our government was not willing to take its hard medicine and do what New Zealand did and has done time and time again. They were the smart ones. We are the ones who put profit ahead of people every time and we're still doing it right now under Biden, same as we were under Trump. The only difference is that Biden is not politicizing masks.

As for do I support a zero-lockdown policy right now? No. The opportunity window for that came and went and our government utterly failed us. The path forward is to get people to vaccinate themselves and return to life. But we're not close to being vaccinated enough yet.

When the next school year starts and our vaccination numbers are better, then I'm all for having schools reopened. Unfortunately, the local junior college where I take continuing education classes will still be on remote learning in the fall, which is crushing, but I can continue with the remote format even though I much prefer the social component of in-person learning and not having to schedule Zoom meetings with my professors to ask questions.

There simply isn't enough benefit to justify the risk of putting kids together now, many of whom cannot be vaccinated in the near future. All you're doing is creating a population of asymptomatic spreaders who are going to pass it on to the anti-vaxxers or the people under 50 who still aren't eligible.

Your argument for hypocrisy here is like saying someone is a hypocrite for saying it is okay to drive 65 on the highway and not on residential streets. The proper course of action depends on the circumstances.

Schools should have re-opened, subject to case numbers in the community, in September. No one ever argued not to look at local circumstances or to stop tracking the situation. Private schools and some public schools have been open in the Bay Area for months with almost no cases. Regardless of whether they should be closed now due to a new variant that spreads differently among the young, they should have been open prior when that variant was not present. At this point, the numbers in the Bay Area are exceedingly low. Schools should be open. If the numbers increase, maybe they should be closed. If there is evidence that the risk of the variant entering the community will change the equation significantly, they should be closed.

Indoor dining has been an obvious spreader from the beginning.

Every holiday in America has launched a surge and none bigger than Thanksgiving. Health experts predicted exactly what was going to happen. You didn't want to believe it because you wanted your own gathering. Exactly what experts predicted happened. You keep litigating a case you lost.

Further, education is a lot more important than stuffing your face.

Democrats promised a $2000 total payment from the beginning. They never promised $2000 additional. You aren't that stupid. You are lying to try and take advantage of the stupid.

It has been clear that the chart sycasey posted completely applies to you. It is completely dead on.

Posting a gif after your argument like that is like laughing at your own joke. Completely lame. Posting it was just a tell that you know your argument sucked.
sycasey
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OaktownBear said:

Schools should be open. If the numbers increase, maybe they should be closed. If there is evidence that the risk of the variant entering the community will change the equation significantly, they should be closed.
Correct. And if schools are going to be closed, then everything else, including indoor dining and indoor family gatherings, should be halted too. Yogi thinks restaurants should be open before schools.
B.A. Bearacus
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BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
dajo9
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Another counterpoint to Yogi's disinformation. In addition to the $2,000 stimulus paid out this year, the unemployed are receiving $1,200 / month through September in addition to their state benefits.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Combative Dick said:

Oakto said:

Your argument for hypocrisy here is like saying someone is a hypocrite for saying it is okay to drive 65 on the highway and not on residential streets. The proper course of action depends on the circumstances.

Schools should have re-opened, subject to case numbers in the community, in September. No one ever argued not to look at local circumstances or to stop tracking the situation. Private schools and some public schools have been open in the Bay Area for months with almost no cases. Regardless of whether they should be closed now due to a new variant that spreads differently among the young, they should have been open prior when that variant was not present. At this point, the numbers in the Bay Area are exceedingly low. Schools should be open. If the numbers increase, maybe they should be closed. If there is evidence that the risk of the variant entering the community will change the equation significantly, they should be closed.
Thanks for all the "antidotal" data. You have no ****ing clue as to what variants have been around and when just like you had no ****ing clue when you were bleating on about Thanksgiving.

Quote:

Democrats promised a $2000 total payment from the beginning. They never promised $2000 additional. You aren't that stupid. You are lying to try and take advantage of the stupid.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA that you are still clinging to that narrative

This could've been you:






When you go off the deep end like this I know I won. When you do it and then immediately go on your other accounts to star your post, I know it really hurt.
sycasey
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OaktownBear said:

Combative Dick said:

Oakto said:

Your argument for hypocrisy here is like saying someone is a hypocrite for saying it is okay to drive 65 on the highway and not on residential streets. The proper course of action depends on the circumstances.

Schools should have re-opened, subject to case numbers in the community, in September. No one ever argued not to look at local circumstances or to stop tracking the situation. Private schools and some public schools have been open in the Bay Area for months with almost no cases. Regardless of whether they should be closed now due to a new variant that spreads differently among the young, they should have been open prior when that variant was not present. At this point, the numbers in the Bay Area are exceedingly low. Schools should be open. If the numbers increase, maybe they should be closed. If there is evidence that the risk of the variant entering the community will change the equation significantly, they should be closed.
Thanks for all the "antidotal" data. You have no ****ing clue as to what variants have been around and when just like you had no ****ing clue when you were bleating on about Thanksgiving.

Quote:

Democrats promised a $2000 total payment from the beginning. They never promised $2000 additional. You aren't that stupid. You are lying to try and take advantage of the stupid.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA that you are still clinging to that narrative

This could've been you:






When you go off the deep end like this I know I won. When you do it and then immediately go on your other accounts to star your post, I know it really hurt.

He took my line for his latest alias! I'm honored.
dajo9
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It's hard to overstate how effective America has been since Biden took over the reins of government
bearister
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Data: CSSE Johns Hopkins University. Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios


Variants drive more coronavirus cases, despite vaccines - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-infections-vaccines-variants-e3e14f79-7fe4-4bbe-a6ca-8ef2c3cd0940.html
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bearister
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Blue Cash Matters said:

bearister said:


Data: CSSE Johns Hopkins University. Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios


Variants drive more coronavirus cases, despite vaccines - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-infections-vaccines-variants-e3e14f79-7fe4-4bbe-a6ca-8ef2c3cd0940.html
How useful is that map when California and Michigan are the same color?


" Percent change of the 7-day average
of new cases on April 6 and April 13, 2021"

Isn't it because the map isn't a comparison between states, the color relates solely to a state's specific percentage change in cases?
So a state like Michigan can be getting lit up with Covid and have a large starting point that doesn't increase much in a week, so the color shows it as holding steady.
Am I correct?
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bearister
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House Republicans tear into Fauci for border conditions, lost freedoms



https://mol.im/a/9475521

I couldn't believe it when Dr. Fauci said to Jordan:

"Congressman, have you seen anyone sexually assaulted in a locker room shower lately?"
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