COVID disappears Nov 4th?

133,677 Views | 1376 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by B.A. Bearacus
blungld
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Like Trump himself, it has become a pattern with right media and posters to pronounce antagonistic one-liners that either just dissipate with time or become replaced by the next talking point when the first is shown to be either a lie or falsehood. Just move onto the next smug signal of tribalism without ever acknowledging they were wrong. No introspection about why their information sources are incorrect so often or why they repeat inaccurate information.

So, I'd like to revisit one of these mantras and NOT have it just slip away. For the past six months many posters here backed the president's claim that COVID was no worse than the flu, was essentially a hoax or political act by Dems to take down the president, and the specific proof of this was that COVID would disappear on Nov 4th.

Now that we are close to that date, who is willing to clearly make that assertion now and then return to this thread after the election and say either "I told you so" or "I was wrong"?

I will go one better. I will say on record that COVID will not disappear on Nov 4th, that it will get worse after Nov 4th, that the lame duck Trump will do very little to combat the virus, and that the transitional Congress and President-elect will start to take clear and decisive action at the Federal level to help flatten the curve of this non-hoax worse than the flu disease. Oh, and the economy and our "freedoms" will take a temporary hit as we Americans finally act responsibly with a national coordinated response owing to having to clean up Trump's mess and Biden will be attacked for doing the right and necessary short term things that will lead us to faster recovery long term. Grown ups are about to be in charge again, and maybe we will all take some pride in civic responsibility and caring for one another?
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GoOskie
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A large swath of people in this country seem to be emotionally, mentally or intellectually stunted. These weak minded people easily fall for the propagandistic one liners. Easily follow a con man. I don't see things getting a whole lot better.
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
smh
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GoOskie said:

I don't see things getting a whole lot better.

https://theconversation.com/covid-19-will-probably-become-endemic-heres-what-that-means-146435
COVID-19 will probably become endemic here's what that means
October 12, 2020 10.24am EDT

We can't say with any certainty what the future of COVID-19 is. But based on our experience with other infections, there is little reason to believe that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will go away any time soon, even when vaccines become available. A more realistic scenario is that it will be added to the (large and growing) family of infectious diseases that are what is known as "endemic" in the human population.

With the worldwide spread of the disease increasing again, it seems unlikely that the currently available measures can do more than bring that spread under control except in countries that can effectively isolate themselves from the outside world. The fact that the vast majority of people are still susceptible to some degree means that there is sufficient fuel for the fire to keep burning for quite some time...


... If vaccines not only prevent clinical disease but also strongly reduce transmission and confer long-lasting immunity, we can envisage other scenarios, such as the potential eradication of the disease. But realistically this is unlikely. Eradication is notoriously difficult, even for diseases for which we have almost perfect vaccines and permanent immunity. Endemic disease is therefore the most likely outcome.


# masks forever?

dimitrig
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It will not go away after November 4th. In fact, it is indeed getting worse.

My employer is seeing more employees test positive per week in October than in any month up until now. Undoubtedly, this is because people are taking more risks in their personal lives. Shopping malls are open. One can even go to sporting events.

I think that a lot of Americans are going to catch COVID-19 this fall and winter.

Personally, I am considering curtailing my activities for a while.





blungld
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So, where are all the Liberal bashing posters who downplayed this virus for months and who repeated over and over again it would disappear Nov 4th and that this was a hoax and fake news? So cocky, so wrong, and so lacking in accountability when called to stand by their glib irrational propaganda.

But of course we are supposed to believe them now and trust the the next thing they claim to be true and that they mean it sincerely--just don't notice that almost everything they have posted during the Trump presidency has been antagonistic, biased, and factually inaccurate.
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Unit2Sucks
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We have it on very good authority (from @Cal88) that the virus is going to virtually disappear from the US by mid-July just like it did in Europe.
bearister
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hanky1
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They just need to scare people as much as possible till nov 3, then it'll be 2nd page news.
dimitrig
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hanky1 said:



They just need to scare people as much as possible till nov 3, then it'll be 2nd page news.

Yeah, Donald Trump's $100K+ hospital bill was some hoax.

Big C
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Well, I'm sticking to my guns: The virus will virtually disappear by November 4th, 2021.

Hopefully...
bearister
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Every piece of data shows the COVID-19 pandemic is getting worse - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-pandemic-getting-worse-9e2dc6ee-fe03-4f08-9425-12017c6b32cb.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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LodeBear
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best quote of the day from Trump last week at two rallies and town hall. "CDC had a study that 85% of the people who wore masks got COVID". He must have read a different study than I read. That beats FDA and trump. with convalescent plasma. 37% reduction in death rate and a game changer to get EUA. FDA Hahn says a week later, I missread the data. The top person and all his scientists missread the study and data. I read the study and even I did not get that conclusion. That is a joke, lie and disservice. it can help increase immunity, but is not a game changer. Yea don't wear masks like some of my patients did and then got Covid. They survived but now they have continued post survivor medical problems and symptoms, mainly chronic fatigue and memory fog. Even a few of the asymptomatic patients. They thought it was a hoax and as harmless as the flu. our county schools are back to in person learning for the most part. So we will see how the kids and staff do. Hopefully with proper protective guidelines in place we will know by thanksgiving if we get a spike. Covid is being politicized, but the virus loves everyone. Be safe and protect your family.
blungld
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hanky1 said:

They just need to scare people as much as possible till nov 3, then it'll be 2nd page news.
Okay, to be clear, your position is that beginning the day after the election the virus will get a noticeable decrease in coverage and the reason for that is because the Democrats are conspiring with the media to scare people about something that isn't really a public health crisis so that the party will do better in the election--but it is all calculated and insincere and after the election this will be totally obvious and no one will really care that much about the virus anymore?

Is that pretty close to what you are saying with your cynical gadfly quip?
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Californium
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Ha! First, I'm going on record that, unfortunately, Covid will not disappear on Nov 4th...

BUT HOW AWESOME WOULD IT BE IF IT DID!?! Trump was so hated that the ENTIRE WORLD conspired together to fake a pandemic just to get rid of him. That would be so funny! If/when he loses the election everyone's all "yeah"/fist pump/rips off mask and life goes back to normal.
blungld
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Californium said:

Ha! First, I'm going on record that, unfortunately, Covid will not disappear on Nov 4th...

BUT HOW AWESOME WOULD IT BE IF IT DID!?! Trump was so hated that the ENTIRE WORLD conspired together to fake a pandemic just to get rid of him. That would be so funny! If/when he loses the election everyone's all "yeah"/fist pump/rips off mask and life goes back to normal.
I suppose if the 200K who died KNEW that they were dying as a noble sacrifice to a great cause, that would be...heroic?
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GoOskie
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I predict the T virus will disappear Jan 20 2021.
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
Californium
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blungld said:

Californium said:

YeHa! First, I'm going on record that, unfortunately, Covid will not disappear on Nov 4th...

BUT HOW AWESOME WOULD IT BE IF IT DID!?! Trump was so hated that the ENTIRE WORLD conspired together to fake a pandemic just to get rid of him. That would be so funny! If/when he loses the election everyone's all "yeah"/fist pump/rips off mask and life goes back to normal.
I suppose if the 200K who died KNEW that they were dying as a noble sacrifice to a great cause, that would be...heroic?
??? Right. That is actually part of my joke, How ridiculous to think 200,000 dead is somehow part of a hoax.
Bear With Me
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Californium said:

blungld said:

Californium said:

YeHa! First, I'm going on record that, unfortunately, Covid will not disappear on Nov 4th...

BUT HOW AWESOME WOULD IT BE IF IT DID!?! Trump was so hated that the ENTIRE WORLD conspired together to fake a pandemic just to get rid of him. That would be so funny! If/when he loses the election everyone's all "yeah"/fist pump/rips off mask and life goes back to normal.
I suppose if the 200K who died KNEW that they were dying as a noble sacrifice to a great cause, that would be...heroic?
??? Right. That is actually part of my joke, How ridiculous to think 200,000 dead is somehow part of a hoax.
About as ridiculous as to think Trump and his supporters claimed the virus was a hoax. The claim, as Hanky pointed out, is how it will be reported and politicized in the MSM, much like the US conflicts in the middle-east when Obama took office and how the daily body-counts suddenly stopped being reported.

bearister
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Idaho county drops mask mandate despite warning of overwhelmed hospital - CBS News


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-idaho-kootenai-county-drops-covid-mask-mandate-despite-hospital-doctors-warning/

* In that county in Idaho, the People have spoken. Refuse to treat them in the hospital, and when they fall dead in the street, pour gas on them and torch their rancid corpses where they dropped.
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Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

We have it on very good authority (from @Cal88) that the virus is going to virtually disappear from the US by mid-July just like it did in Europe.
It did bottom out in Europe, if you look at ICU hospitalizations and deaths. Your approach conflating new cases through massive testing with unreliable PCR tests as opposed to ICU hospitalizations and deaths is kind of dumb and alarmist.




Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 cherry-picking data. How could we possibly have seen this coming?

Here's a link showing daily deaths per million in the EU vs US. Doesn't look like it's gone away. I suspect you know the same which is why you stopped posting about COVID months ago. Even your cherry-picking has limits and so many if your favorite HCQ countries have seen upticks in cases and deaths after you stopped talking about them. You aren't fooling anyone any more.



bearister
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"Trump began the pandemic blowing off masks and, even as we enter a new fall surge and even after the president and his family contracted the virus, he was still mocking a White House reporter's mask on Friday. It's unfathomable that the president of the United States would turn himself into a public health menace. But he has." Maureen Dowd
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Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Cal88 cherry-picking data. How could we possibly have seen this coming?

Here's a link showing daily deaths per million in the EU vs US. Doesn't look like it's gone away. I suspect you know the same which is why you stopped posting about COVID months ago. Even your cherry-picking has limits and so many if your favorite HCQ countries have seen upticks in cases and deaths after you stopped talking about them. You aren't fooling anyone any more.





Most of Europe flatlined in Summer. The recent uptick observed here is commensurate with the start of the new flu season, which starts in October. The current rate of 2 deaths per million observed in Europe is in line with seasonal numbers, it's going to keep growing and peak in January, in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Europe has about a quarter million deaths from the flu every season.



The IHU Mditerrane-Infection, leading institute focusing and the study and treatment of infectious diseases in Europe, has isolated 7 strains of coronavirus currently circulating in France, which have sources in the rest of Europe given that France gets a lot of European tourists as well as from Africa. None of these strains are as virulent as SARS-Cov2 was at the beginning of the epidemic.



(English subtitles available through the CC and Settings buttons)
Unit2Sucks
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More random cherry-picking. You are conflating flu with COVID and relying on your favorite contrarian doctor - the guy who misrepresented HCQ as a miracle COVID cure to the world. From what I hear, ICUs are full in his hometown of Marseilles so I guess it didn't go as well as you predicted it would. Fortunately, they are instituting further lockdown procedures because social distancing actually does work, unlike any variety of fake miracle therapeutics that people like you peddle.

What does it even mean for COVID deaths to be in line with seasonal numbers? COVID is incremental to the seasonal flu - they aren't substitutes. I would expect this to be a mild flu season because we've never had a flu season where we had so many people so distant. Fortunately, the partial measures that work to slow down COVID will slow down the seasonal flu, both here and abroad. If we had better mask compliance and people took more personal responsibility, we would do even better.

Despite the fact that almost all of your predictions turned out to be wrong, you obviously haven't learned to stop making them. I hope no one is relying on your predictions for anything of value.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

We have it on very good authority (from @Cal88) that the virus is going to virtually disappear from the US by mid-July just like it did in Europe.
It did bottom out in Europe, if you look at ICU hospitalizations and deaths. Your approach conflating new cases through massive testing with unreliable PCR tests as opposed to ICU hospitalizations and deaths is kind of dumb and alarmist.





Look. Seriously. Why don't you let go of your little "I'm right" trophy that you lost a long time ago and have some humility. No one expected you to be the Covid expert. No one expects anyone to get everything or anything right. Based on a ridiculously outsized prediction of deaths in the first place, taking data from the Spanish Flu epidemic that was not analogous, you predicted serious measures would be put in place when others didn't see it coming. Of course most people didn't look at how wrong you were, just in the right direction, but fine. You were King Covid.

You should have Costanza'd this. But you enjoyed your mantle too much and flew too close to the sun. You can't just look at a bunch of charts and become a better expert than epidemiologists. None of us here can. You had to start making predictions and start arguing with certainty what was going to happen.

You didn't predict that Europe would bottom out. You can see that in the charts that both you and Unit posted in relation to your statement. You simply read the data that Europe HAD ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT. You weren't "right" about that as were all of us who could read a basic chart. You just read what everyone else could read at the time. Your problem was that you extrapolated from that data that the US would bottom out a few weeks later. At the time, I made no predictions. What I argued to you was that you could not predict either. I pointed out some differences in the US that might lead to different outcomes. Or might not. That we still need to be concerned. "No" you said. End of July. "Bank on it"

Basically, you said the US deaths would be a trickle by July because of Europe's data. I specifically warned you at the time that the virus hits regions, not countries. That the virus had most likely run its course in New York and the surrounding hard hit areas and their curve would likely follow Europe because it already was following Europe, but that cases were rising in OTHER areas. New York wasn't so much a prediction at that point. It was simply reading what had already happened. No, you said, the increased cases elsewhere was increased testing (though the numbers did not support that the entire rise in cases was due to increased testing), end of July, bank on it. That anyone that believed the US would follow a different curve from Europe was engaging in magical thinking.

Then when it became clear deaths didn't slow to a trickle in July, you tried to CYA by saying you were talking about the Northeast and you didn't anticipate the virus picking up in other areas. Except that was the whole thrust of the conversation where you said the rest of us were engaging in magical thinking.

You have twice moved the goalposts on when deaths will become a trickle, and they haven't yet.

Now this post is your most misleading yet. You never predicted Europe would bottom out. You just stated the obvious that Europe had bottomed out. You continually try to reformulate what you said to distract from the main point that you predicted the US death toll would slow to a trickle, that you climbed on your high horse and told everyone that you had been right in February and March and you were right now. You put down everyone that was being cautious and not trying to make predictions. And then you were hopelessly wrong.

Now, not only do you post this to claim the argument in the summer was something that it wasn't, you cherrypick your evidence in the most disgraceful of ways. Europe is clearly hitting a new surge. The UK, Spain, and France have seen dramatic increases in hospitalizations and deaths. Units chart clearly shows what is going on in the EU as a whole. But you post a chart from only Sweden because Sweden has yet to see a second surge. (whether it will or not, who knows). You know full well that much of Europe has seen a dramatic increase in hospitalizations and deaths.

Throughout this process you have posted cherrypicked and bad data to make false points. You post data that is 2 months old. You find one country or region that supports your point when you know the data across the board does not. I'm sorry, but this is disgraceful. You are simply posting known disinformation to try and keep your ego stroking alive. Posting complete bullshyte to try and win an argument when it is so important people have accurate information is about the worst thing I have seen on this board.

Being wrong is not the problem. I have been wrong many times throughout this process. Even back in the summer I told you I agreed with some of your predictions but what I disagreed with is you pronouncing them as fact and being so sure that you were right about what was going to happen. Every time I agreed with a prediction of yours, I was wrong. But the difference is, that I knew they were guesses and I maintained we keep all scenarios open and read the data as it came.

That you would post an effing chart from one effing small country is just effing embarrassing.

Here is what we know. Europe got it before we did, ran through a curve and bottomed out. The US never bottomed out. The virus just hopped from region to region. Cases counts went up in part due to increased testing but the total increase in many areas did not match the increased testing rates. The southern US had its daily death figures rise significantly. They have started to plateau. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest has now seen a dramatic rise in cases. Daily death rates have started to follow suit and there is real reason to be concerned they will go through what the southern part of the US went through in the summer, but we don't know. There are possible explanations that are concerning, like there is a possible correlation with increased indoor activity (Southern US being very hot people staying indoors in the summer. Northern US being cold, people start to stay indoors more in the winter). Or colleges going back. Or a lot of things we don't know. But the numbers are the numbers.

We also know that Europe that was down to virtually nothing is seeing a tremendous spike not just in cases but in hospitalizations and deaths. France and the UK and Spain, having seemingly beaten it, are running daily death rates per capita that are approaching the US rates and they are going up. Some places in Europe that didn't see a big first wave are showing some concerning signs.

Does this mean we are going to see a significant second wave in the US? I don't know. Does it mean we are going to sit on this plateau of like 700-1000 deaths a day. I don't know. People should be concerned. Your continuing to blow sunshine up everyone's ass because you don't want to relinquish the King Covid title is a huge disservice.
BearChemist
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Tl;dr version: Cal88 is full of merde.
sycasey
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Once again: everyone should have stopped taking Cal88 seriously years ago when he posted clearly fake material in support of his climate change position. When faced with the facts that his evidence was fake, he refused to acknowledge the mistake.

https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/66429/replies/1380719#1380719

Same story on COVID. He was right about one thing, in a stopped-clock sort of way: that the US would have to lock down in March. Otherwise he has been consistently wrong about his predictions. He's a joke.
BearlyCareAnymore
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Cal88 cherry-picking data. How could we possibly have seen this coming?

Here's a link showing daily deaths per million in the EU vs US. Doesn't look like it's gone away. I suspect you know the same which is why you stopped posting about COVID months ago. Even your cherry-picking has limits and so many if your favorite HCQ countries have seen upticks in cases and deaths after you stopped talking about them. You aren't fooling anyone any more.





Most of Europe flatlined in Summer. The recent uptick observed here is commensurate with the start of the new flu season, which starts in October. The current rate of 2 deaths per million observed in Europe is in line with seasonal numbers, it's going to keep growing and peak in January, in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Europe has about a quarter million deaths from the flu every season.



The IHU Mditerrane-Infection, leading institute focusing and the study and treatment of infectious diseases in Europe, has isolated 7 strains of coronavirus currently circulating in France, which have sources in the rest of Europe given that France gets a lot of European tourists as well as from Africa. None of these strains are as virulent as SARS-Cov2 was at the beginning of the epidemic.



(English subtitles available through the CC and Settings buttons)

France has had over 1250 Covid deaths in the last week. That is much higher than their normal seasonal flu death rate for this time of year. Posting a chart showing that flu rates go up in flu season doesn't tell us anything, King Covid.

Is it July yet?
dajo9
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OaktownBear said:

Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Cal88 cherry-picking data. How could we possibly have seen this coming?

Here's a link showing daily deaths per million in the EU vs US. Doesn't look like it's gone away. I suspect you know the same which is why you stopped posting about COVID months ago. Even your cherry-picking has limits and so many if your favorite HCQ countries have seen upticks in cases and deaths after you stopped talking about them. You aren't fooling anyone any more.





Most of Europe flatlined in Summer. The recent uptick observed here is commensurate with the start of the new flu season, which starts in October. The current rate of 2 deaths per million observed in Europe is in line with seasonal numbers, it's going to keep growing and peak in January, in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Europe has about a quarter million deaths from the flu every season.



The IHU Mditerrane-Infection, leading institute focusing and the study and treatment of infectious diseases in Europe, has isolated 7 strains of coronavirus currently circulating in France, which have sources in the rest of Europe given that France gets a lot of European tourists as well as from Africa. None of these strains are as virulent as SARS-Cov2 was at the beginning of the epidemic.



(English subtitles available through the CC and Settings buttons)

France has had over 1250 Covid deaths in the last week. That is much higher than their normal seasonal flu death rate for this time of year. Posting a chart showing that flu rates go up in flu season doesn't tell us anything, King Covid.

Is it July yet?


You guys are dumb. Cal88 was talking about July 2021 after Trump is replaced.
bearister
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Utah's hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/



*If they can figure out who the tRumpists are that failed to mask and socially distance, pour gas on them where they drop in the street and torch'em.
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Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

We have it on very good authority (from @Cal88) that the virus is going to virtually disappear from the US by mid-July just like it did in Europe.
It did bottom out in Europe, if you look at ICU hospitalizations and deaths. Your approach conflating new cases through massive testing with unreliable PCR tests as opposed to ICU hospitalizations and deaths is kind of dumb and alarmist.





Here's what herd immunity looks like in Sweden.

BearChemist
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With idiots like this in the White House...

Unit2Sucks
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BearChemist said:

With idiots like this in the White House...


Farah is the daugther of Joseph Farrah, the granddaddy of idiot right wing conspiracy theorists (Vince Foster, birtherism, etc.). She is a perfect example of the "best people".

smh
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blungld said:

I will say on record that COVID will not disappear on Nov 4th, that it will get worse after Nov 4th, that the lame duck Trump will do very little to combat the virus, and that the transitional Congress and President-elect will start to take clear and decisive action at the Federal level to help flatten the curve of this non-hoax worse than the flu disease. Oh, and the economy and our "freedoms" will take a temporary hit as we Americans finally act responsibly with a national coordinated response owing to having to clean up Trump's mess and Biden will be attacked for doing the right and necessary short term things that will lead us to faster recovery long term. Grown ups are about to be in charge again, and maybe we will all take some pride in civic responsibility and caring for one another ?
regardless, can't hardly wait. # may the november fourth be with us



BearlyCareAnymore
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blungld said:

Like Trump himself, it has become a pattern with right media and posters to pronounce antagonistic one-liners that either just dissipate with time or become replaced by the next talking point when the first is shown to be either a lie or falsehood. Just move onto the next smug signal of tribalism without ever acknowledging they were wrong. No introspection about why their information sources are incorrect so often or why they repeat inaccurate information.

So, I'd like to revisit one of these mantras and NOT have it just slip away. For the past six months many posters here backed the president's claim that COVID was no worse than the flu, was essentially a hoax or political act by Dems to take down the president, and the specific proof of this was that COVID would disappear on Nov 4th.

Now that we are close to that date, who is willing to clearly make that assertion now and then return to this thread after the election and say either "I told you so" or "I was wrong"?

I will go one better. I will say on record that COVID will not disappear on Nov 4th, that it will get worse after Nov 4th, that the lame duck Trump will do very little to combat the virus, and that the transitional Congress and President-elect will start to take clear and decisive action at the Federal level to help flatten the curve of this non-hoax worse than the flu disease. Oh, and the economy and our "freedoms" will take a temporary hit as we Americans finally act responsibly with a national coordinated response owing to having to clean up Trump's mess and Biden will be attacked for doing the right and necessary short term things that will lead us to faster recovery long term. Grown ups are about to be in charge again, and maybe we will all take some pride in civic responsibility and caring for one another?
I'll pose an additional question. With red states getting slammed with new cases, will political opposition to wearing masks go down on November 4?
 
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