COVID disappears Nov 4th?

133,665 Views | 1376 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by B.A. Bearacus
sycasey
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LMK5 said:

sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Excellent work sy. Clearly you were paying attention when attending Cal. So, would it be safe to say that had we not been wearing masks during the fall-winter surge that we'd all be dead?
No, we would not all be dead. But more people would be dead.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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LMK5 said:

sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Excellent work sy. Clearly you were paying attention when attending Cal. So, would it be safe to say that had we not been wearing masks during the fall-winter surge that we'd all be dead?
Sometimes reality falls somewhere between the extreme cases. 0% and 100% doesn't happen very often.
LMK5
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

LMK5 said:

sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Excellent work sy. Clearly you were paying attention when attending Cal. So, would it be safe to say that had we not been wearing masks during the fall-winter surge that we'd all be dead?
Sometimes reality falls somewhere between the extreme cases. 0% and 100% doesn't happen very often.
True, but it isn't far-fetched to believe that with high mask compliance we should at least be able to prevent the kind of surge we had.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
BearlyCareAnymore
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LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
BearlyCareAnymore
How long do you want to ignore this user?
sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
On the one hand UCSF epidemiologist says they work. On the other hand Bearforce has a graph. I don't know. Seems like an either or situation to me.
LMK5
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OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
BearlyCareAnymore
How long do you want to ignore this user?
LMK5 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

LMK5 said:

sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Excellent work sy. Clearly you were paying attention when attending Cal. So, would it be safe to say that had we not been wearing masks during the fall-winter surge that we'd all be dead?
Sometimes reality falls somewhere between the extreme cases. 0% and 100% doesn't happen very often.
True, but it isn't far-fetched to believe that with high mask compliance we should at least be able to prevent the kind of surge we had.
You mean the surge I told you was coming before it came if we didn't change our behavior? The one you denied was coming and mocked me about? That surge? Masks are not a panacea. If they were and we can actually get compliance, which we don't, we wouldn't care about stupid Covid. We'd just put on our masks and go about our business.

We had a surge because of a combination of the seasonality of the disease combined with the fact that we never kicked it combined with the fact that at the same time people had way more gatherings and stopped taking the same social distancing precautions. For instance, the US had spikes of varying degrees after every holiday that sees an uptick in gatherings.
Big C
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OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition

Devastating. This is how I want to write when I grow up.
BearlyCareAnymore
How long do you want to ignore this user?
LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
LMK5
How long do you want to ignore this user?
OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
The Asians definitely saw it coming early on, after all, they've seen it so many times before. I remember back around January of 2020 I was walking my dog past my neighbor's house, and he happened to have his garage door open. So I see all this toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, water bottles, batteries, etc. So I said, "Jerry, are you starting a consumer nondurables business"? Since he's not a Cal grad he was able to laugh and he replied that he'd been talking to his relatives in China and Hong Kong and they told him to be prepared. Around the same time, we'd drive by Costco and see these huge lines of Asian customers and we'd wonder, "what's on sale"? But they turned out to be right. They got firsthand information from relatives that this was a big one. There was no toilet paper for the rest of us.

What's strange is that, with these kinds of outbreaks being not uncommon in Asian countries, that they wouldn't be taking year-round precautions to prevent them.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
82gradDLSdad
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

LMK5 said:

sycasey said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Excellent work sy. Clearly you were paying attention when attending Cal. So, would it be safe to say that had we not been wearing masks during the fall-winter surge that we'd all be dead?
Sometimes reality falls somewhere between the extreme cases. 0% and 100% doesn't happen very often.


Yah, just my luck. Cal: 0% rose bowls in my lifetime.
BearlyCareAnymore
How long do you want to ignore this user?
LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
The Asians definitely saw it coming early on, after all, they've seen it so many times before. I remember back around January of 2020 I was walking my dog past my neighbor's house, and he happened to have his garage door open. So I see all this toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, water bottles, batteries, etc. So I said, "Jerry, are you starting a consumer nondurables business"? Since he's not a Cal grad he was able to laugh and he replied that he'd been talking to his relatives in China and Hong Kong and they told him to be prepared. Around the same time, we'd drive by Costco and see these huge lines of Asian customers and we'd wonder, "what's on sale"? But they turned out to be right. They got firsthand information from relatives that this was a big one. There was no toilet paper for the rest of us.

What's strange is that, with these kinds of outbreaks being not uncommon in Asian countries, that they wouldn't be taking year-round precautions to prevent them.
We don't need to change everything in our lives for eternity. Being ready to rapidly respond is all that it takes. However, given that means immediately near universal mask wearing and contact tracing, I don't anticipate we will be where we need to be the next time.

I saw a recent study that basically said that if one sick person had stayed home from work that market in Wu Han, the disease may have died out before it took hold. It took a super spreader event to get it going
BearForce2
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LMK5 said:

BearForce2 said:


I guess it was at that point that they told you to wear 2, or 3, or how ever many you can bear without getting to the gasping point?

The actual number of masks don't matter. What matters is if it looks like you're convincing others you're wearing more than one.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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OaktownBear said:




4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

This.

I have mostly given upon responding to these kind of agenda driven arguments unless I can do it in 2 or 3 sentences. I used to do so more often, but even in my career field where I've worked the last 30 years, there's always some clown with a website or a twitter account that has more credibility than me. Frankly, it's not worth more than a minute or so of my time pointing out obvious fallacies that they will then staunchly defend with other websites and tweets.
AunBear89
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

OaktownBear said:




4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

This.

I have mostly given upon responding to these kind of agenda driven arguments unless I can do it in 2 or 3 sentences. I used to do so more often, but even in my career field where I've worked the last 30 years, there's always some clown with a website or a twitter account that has more credibility than me. Frankly, it's not worth more than a minute or so of my time pointing out obvious fallacies that they will then staunchly defend with other websites and tweets.



Agreed. We get daily examples of Confirmation Bias from our righty posters on BI.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Big C
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OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
The Asians definitely saw it coming early on, after all, they've seen it so many times before. I remember back around January of 2020 I was walking my dog past my neighbor's house, and he happened to have his garage door open. So I see all this toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, water bottles, batteries, etc. So I said, "Jerry, are you starting a consumer nondurables business"? Since he's not a Cal grad he was able to laugh and he replied that he'd been talking to his relatives in China and Hong Kong and they told him to be prepared. Around the same time, we'd drive by Costco and see these huge lines of Asian customers and we'd wonder, "what's on sale"? But they turned out to be right. They got firsthand information from relatives that this was a big one. There was no toilet paper for the rest of us.

What's strange is that, with these kinds of outbreaks being not uncommon in Asian countries, that they wouldn't be taking year-round precautions to prevent them.
We don't need to change everything in our lives for eternity. Being ready to rapidly respond is all that it takes. However, given that means immediately near universal mask wearing and contact tracing, I don't anticipate we will be where we need to be the next time.

I saw a recent study that basically said that if one sick person had stayed home from work that market in Wu Han, the disease may have died out before it took hold. It took a super spreader event to get it going

I saw what was perhaps that same study. It said there may be viruses like this fairly often, but they don't end up finding enough hosts (w/o the super spreader) and end up just dying out. Fascinating. Frightening.
Big C
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LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
The Asians definitely saw it coming early on, after all, they've seen it so many times before. I remember back around January of 2020 I was walking my dog past my neighbor's house, and he happened to have his garage door open. So I see all this toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, water bottles, batteries, etc. So I said, "Jerry, are you starting a consumer nondurables business"? Since he's not a Cal grad he was able to laugh and he replied that he'd been talking to his relatives in China and Hong Kong and they told him to be prepared. Around the same time, we'd drive by Costco and see these huge lines of Asian customers and we'd wonder, "what's on sale"? But they turned out to be right. They got firsthand information from relatives that this was a big one. There was no toilet paper for the rest of us.

What's strange is that, with these kinds of outbreaks being not uncommon in Asian countries, that they wouldn't be taking year-round precautions to prevent them.

Hey, you couldn't sneak that one by me! Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!

(At my Cal graduation, the guy handed me my diploma and said, "Remember, no laughing." Clutching it tightly, I gave him a big guffaw as I sprinted off the stage. They haven't been able to rescind my degree, so I guess it's more of a guideline than a hard and fast law.)
AunBear89
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BearForce2 said:

LMK5 said:

BearForce2 said:


I guess it was at that point that they told you to wear 2, or 3, or how ever many you can bear without getting to the gasping point?

The actual number of masks don't matter. What matters is if it looks like you're convincing others you're wearing more than one.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
bearister
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They still have a convention:




*Shout out to Woody Allen's Love and Death
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B.A. Bearacus
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In the president's judgement, we will be back to normal by around April 12. April 12, 2020.

Unit2Sucks
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I can't wait until LMK5 tells us that Russian Roulette is a perfectly safe game.
concordtom
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B.A. Bearacus said:




"Easter Sunday is a very special day for me."



He wasn't lying.
LMK5
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Big C said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

LMK5 said:

OaktownBear said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:


Japan had 98% mask compliance and peaked at 6,500 cases a day. The US had much lower mask compliance and peaked at 250,000 cases a day. I'd say wearing masks helped.


As I said on the other thread, this reading of the curve is moronic. Masks don't eliminate Covid. Like almost everywhere Japan saw a seasonal increase in Covid. The difference is their baseline was lower. We had 24 times the deaths per capita. Again, if masks eliminated almost every case, but they bottomed out at 2 cases and then increased to a measly 50, they would draw a really scary looking curve. None of which means anything related to the effectiveness of masks. The scientific and statistical illiteracy among some Cal grads is soul crushing.

Every year we see a gigantic spike in flu cases after we increase our flu vaccines. The above argument is the same logic as saying flu vaccines cause flu.
So then what statistical tool would you use to gauge the effectiveness of masks? There must be a more scientific argument than "you gotta believe."
1. There are tons of scientific studies that use complicated statistical analysis looking similarly situated examples where you can somewhat control for variables. You and BF ignore these preferring to look at charts of data posted in Twitter to make arguments that you should see in less than 5 seconds are clearly flawed.
2. There is a century worth of data showing that masks help prevent the spread of the vast majority of disease . As I said, next time you need surgery or go to the dentist for that matter, please tell them not to wear a mask if you are so convinced of this. While you are at it, please tell them not to wash their hands too because people in Japan didn't maintain a constant Covid rate despite washing their hands at a consistent rate.
3. The mechanism for masks reducing the spread of disease are easily tested and explained. We know the disease spreads through droplets and we know masks limit the spread of droplets.

4. I'm not searching the web for complex studies that you will just say TL/DR and mick in favor of a graph that to anyone with a brain doesn't say that masks don't work. You are way too smart to look at a graph showing a seasonal increase in COVID in a country that has had very few deaths per capita and say it shows masks don't work. You have from the beginning wanted to believe absolutely no measure works. You can find some reasonable studies on some measures that have been taken aren't effective. On masks you are being willfully ignorant. There is no point trying to convince you. The only point is to respond so that people who may take too cursory a look at the above see it's stupidity.

5. For goodness sake it is a stupid piece of cloth. How hard is it? If you can't breathe you need to go to the doctor because you obviously have a serious underlying condition
Yes, but if you looked at my later post, I acknowledged the studies linked by sy. That said, it does seem that masks are more effective against the flu than covid.
You call mocking them by claiming they say we'd all be dead acknowledging them?

No, it doesn't seem like the measures were more effective against the flu. What it seems like is that the measures were taken when we had almost no flu cases so flu never could take hold. The number one reason Asia did so much better is that they have been through this before, they know how to attack it right away, and they have near universal compliance. Had we taken measures immediately it is likely that the thing doesn't take hold in a significant way. Every western country waited until they saw significant numbers before doing anything
The Asians definitely saw it coming early on, after all, they've seen it so many times before. I remember back around January of 2020 I was walking my dog past my neighbor's house, and he happened to have his garage door open. So I see all this toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, water bottles, batteries, etc. So I said, "Jerry, are you starting a consumer nondurables business"? Since he's not a Cal grad he was able to laugh and he replied that he'd been talking to his relatives in China and Hong Kong and they told him to be prepared. Around the same time, we'd drive by Costco and see these huge lines of Asian customers and we'd wonder, "what's on sale"? But they turned out to be right. They got firsthand information from relatives that this was a big one. There was no toilet paper for the rest of us.

What's strange is that, with these kinds of outbreaks being not uncommon in Asian countries, that they wouldn't be taking year-round precautions to prevent them.

Hey, you couldn't sneak that one by me! Ha ha ha ha ha ha!!

(At my Cal graduation, the guy handed me my diploma and said, "Remember, no laughing." Clutching it tightly, I gave him a big guffaw as I sprinted off the stage. They haven't been able to rescind my degree, so I guess it's more of a guideline than a hard and fast law.)
You're the first to catch it! I hope some of your lightheartedness "infects" a few of your classmates.
The truth lies somewhere between CNN and Fox.
B.A. Bearacus
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Appreciating the excellence.


bearister
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Data: CSSE at Johns Hopkins. Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios
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B.A. Bearacus
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bearister said:


Cuomo cutting family in line for tests -- not a great look, but whatever. Cutting family in line for vaccine doses -- now that would be problematic. The NY Post headline "Inside jab" has nothing to do with shots and promotes a lie.
bearister
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B.A. Bearacus said:

bearister said:


Cuomo cutting family in line for tests -- not a great look, but whatever. Cutting family in line for vaccine doses -- now that would be problematic. The NY Post headline "Inside jab" has nothing to do with shots and promotes a lie.


I agree with you. 99.9% of politicians do worse.
In other news...

Bill Gates says world should be back to normal by end-2022 due to vaccines: Polish media | Reuters


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-billgates-idUSKBN2BH0SX
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B.A. Bearacus
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Vaccinations open to all in SF on April 15.

https://instagr.am/p/CM3M2uvJVIK
BearlyCareAnymore
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Vaccinations open to all in SF on April 15.

https://instagr.am/p/CM3M2uvJVIK


Newsom announced this for all of California. This is not SF specific
B.A. Bearacus
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OaktownBear said:


Newsom announced this for all of California. This is not SF specific
Awesome! Thanks for the clarification, OTB.
Unit2Sucks
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I'm hopeful that we're really starting to permanently bend the curve. The pharmacy closest to my house started offering vaccinations on Monday so I'm hopeful that sometime in late April or May that I will be able to get my first dose just in time for summer. No one wanted to wait this long, but it's great to see public health measures paying off.
Big C
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Unit2Sucks said:

I'm hopeful that we're really starting to permanently bend the curve. The pharmacy closest to my house started offering vaccinations on Monday so I'm hopeful that sometime in late April or May that I will be able to get my first dose just in time for summer. No one wanted to wait this long, but it's great to see public health measures paying off.

You should be in there even sooner than that. I had estimated that my first shot might be in early April, but got it instead ten days ago. Didn't even have to cut in front of some old lady!
B.A. Bearacus
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bearister
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tRump's lack of leadership, lies, fraud and undermining of mitigation efforts killed thousands of Americans. In an earlier era he would have been tried and convicted of criminal negligence and dereliction of duty and then hung like a common thief and his remains disposed of in a potter's field.

Birx shares her chilling conclusion as America arrives at a moment of introspection on the coronavirus - CNNPolitics


https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/27/politics/covid-war-deaths-preventable/index.html
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B.A. Bearacus
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