sonofabear51 said:

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Toronto beat the Bucks in Milwaukee tonight. IMHO, the Raptors pose much more of a problem to the Warriors then do the Bucks. Lot of veterans with playoff experience compared to Milwaukee. Toronto beat the Dubs both games this year. Opinions? I am no basketball guru, but I think I see Toronto giving the Dubs all they can handle in the Finals.

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Yes, well, I'm looking forward to hearing the prognosticators break it down.
At least the warriors will get games 1-2, 5, 7 in Oakland.
That should make Bearister happy.

...here's the raptors playoff stats, so you can begin to make your own compares:
http://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/tor/table/game/sort/avgMinutes/dir/desc

concordtom said:

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Yes, well, I'm looking forward to hearing the prognosticators break it down.
At least the warriors will get games 1-2, 5, 7 in Oakland.
That should make Bearister happy.

...here's the raptors playoff stats, so you can begin to make your own compares:
http://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/tor/table/game/sort/avgMinutes/dir/desc

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Milwaukee and Toronto had better regular season records, so the first two games in the Finals are back east. Games 3 and 4 will be in Oakland.

NVGolfingBear said:

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I'm liking this opinion ducky. I have one question.

Who is Van Fleet going to guard on the W's? Curry in the PnR? Klay? Maybe Livingston for those brief minutes? I see that as a major mismatch in favor of the W's.

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This is how I see Toronto playing for the majority of mins.

1 Lowry
2 Green
3 Van Fleet/Powell
4 Kawhi
5 Siakim/Ibaka


Lowry will guard Steph (Kawhi may guard Steph during key stretches)
Green on Klay
Van Fleet/Powell on Iggy
Kawhi on Green (seems counter-intuitive, but allows Kawhi to roam, it also takes away the steph/Dray PNR because Kawhi can simply switch onto Steph)
Siakim/Ibaka on Looney/bell

Now if KD plays, i don't know how the hell toronto can match up

prospeCt said:

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Mow Oui, over there



http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/basketball-nba-finals-golden-state-warriors-head-coach-al-attles-on-picture-id475007400?s=594x594

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Nice cameo by our own Phil Chenier in the middle photo.

BearSD said:

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concordtom said:

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Yes, well, I'm looking forward to hearing the prognosticators break it down.
At least the warriors will get games 1-2, 5, 7 in Oakland.
That should make Bearister happy.

...here's the raptors playoff stats, so you can begin to make your own compares:
http://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/tor/table/game/sort/avgMinutes/dir/desc

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Milwaukee and Toronto had better regular season records, so the first two games in the Finals are back east. Games 3 and 4 will be in Oakland.

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Yes, I just learned that. I stand corrected.

ducky23 said:

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Toronto's finally figuring out they are way better with Ibaka in there and not gasol.

I just don't know if Toronto is deep enough if this series goes 7.

Hoping so cause mil is deep and very big, long and athletic.

If the dubs get Toronto, they will make gasol unplayable, which essentially means Toronto will be going 6-7 deep

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The Warriors are going to have had a full 9 days off. It'll give them time to rest and recuperate (Klay was out laaaaate at one of my old stomping ground bars in the City the other night, which is totally fair given the time they have).

But I do wonder how this long lay off will affect them. I wonder if there's ever been a greater disparity between time off before a Finals than we'll have for this Finals. If TOR/MIL goes 7, they'll have 2 days off - a 7 day difference.

It's like a BYE week in football: Sometimes it seems to help, but sometimes team's lose their edge.

The Warriors will beat whichever team shows up. And without Durant. The passing is a joy to watch. Green will once again be the difference.

Warriors salaries and roster NEXT year(s) here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/GSW.html



Shopping for free agents here:
https://hoopshype.com/2019/04/29/nba-free-agency-2019-the-top-players/

I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

I don't think Gasol can stay in front of Green. Maybe Ibaka can.

ClayK said:

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I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

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Until he goes 5-8 from three to beat the Rockets

It'll be a good finals, no matter.
There have been so many discussions on tv lately about who the Best players in the world are:

It was for a long time Lebron,
But then Durant sank that 3 over his head to win for the Warriors and it started to shift to KD.

Giannis was getting the talk while the Bucks were up 2-0, but then they switched Kawhi onto him defensively and clogged the lane and showed weaknesses in Giannis' game.

Kawhi has long been in the discussion as a notch below, but now they are trying to say he has surpassed Lebron and KD, but that's likely short lived, until those two return to the scene - or perhaps Kawhi can beat the warriors and steal the mantle?

Harden was wowing everyone the last few seasons, and has earned mention, but he can't win in the end.

And then there's Curry, the undersized miracle who is only the most decorated player of the past five years with 5 finals appearances, 2 MVP's, and 3 titles to his account - beyond what any of the above can claim. Curry has been discounted since KD arrived, but in 6 quick games, he's got a lot of people back on his bandwagon, reminding them of what he can do.

So, how will the narrative play out between Giannis and Kawhi,
Between Curry and the eastern survivor,
And will KD show up at all, and if so, what kind of condition will he be in?

It's good drama!

there was an article asking the question of whether there is not more talent in the NBA than there has ever been. I think so!

Certainly Lebron and KD belong on any all-time squad, and some folks might just take Curry, too.

Let's face it, Magic couldn't shoot worth beans! And no way could he defend the perimeter. He'd have a more difficult time in today's game.


Curry
Jordan
KD
Lebron
Pick your center (I'll take Hakeem for today's spread era, Shaq and Wilt suck at FT's, Kareem too slow)

3&D guy who doesn't need the ball.
Rim protector

You know, it would all come down to personalities and meshing of style. My main scorers above all needed the ball in their hands, and then there's the ego and pecking order aspect. Almost better to take Jordan and a Center and 3 3&D guys to spread the floor.

ClayK said:

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I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

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Sigh

Putting gasol on green is almost as bad a coaching decision as sagging Kanter into the lane

Let me be clear about something. The curry/green pnr is probably the most deadly offensive weapon in basketball right now.

So if you're playing the warriors, your very first goal is to try to take that away, or at least minimize it.

Putting gasol on green would basically be like pouring gasoline on a flame.


Also putting Kawhi on Steph is probably something they'll do in certain stretches but it's completeky unsustainable for the entire game.

If Kawhi is on Steph, all that will happen is they will run dray at point (making him the main ball handler) and run Steph all around the court thru multiple screen. There is zero way Toronto wants to see an already hobbled Kawhi running around chasing Steph thru screens the entire game. He will get tired. He will get more hurt. He may pick up more fouls. And he probably won't be able to stay with Steph anyways.

Guarding Giannis and guarding Steph are two very different things.

ducky23 said:

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ClayK said:

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I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

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Sigh

Putting gasol on green is almost as bad a coaching decision as sagging Kanter into the lane

Let me be clear about something. The curry/green pnr is probably the most deadly offensive weapon in basketball right now.

So if you're playing the warriors, your very first goal is to try to take that away, or at least minimize it.

Putting gasol on green would basically be like pouring gasoline on a flame.


Also putting Kawhi on Steph is probably something they'll do in certain stretches but it's completeky unsustainable for the entire game.

If Kawhi is on Steph, all that will happen is they will run dray at point (making him the main ball handler) and run Steph all around the court thru multiple screen. There is zero way Toronto wants to see an already hobbled Kawhi running around chasing Steph thru screens the entire game. He will get tired. He will get more hurt. He may pick up more fouls. And he probably won't be able to stay with Steph anyways.

Guarding Giannis and guarding Steph are two very different things.

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Good points. This article details the problems Steph causes defenses because he is so good with the ball and without the ball. Usually, a great player is really good at one or the other, but not both.

https://theathletic.com/993869/2019/05/24/steph-currys-undeniable-legacy-and-his-chance-to-join-the-nbas-mount-rushmore/

Steph impacts the game like few others.
His ball handling is all-universe


Impossible to rank players over generations and between positions

I think Curry is the best PG in this era (2000-2019)
And the best shooter ever

HoopDreams said:

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Steph impacts the game like few others.
His ball handling is all-universe


Impossible to rank players over generations and between positions

I think Curry is the best PG in this era (2000-2019)
And the best shooter ever

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There was an interesting discussion on radio the other day where ray ratto was basically arguing Steph wouldn't be as effective in the 80-90's cause it was a more physical game and he wouldn't had as much freedom of movement.

While true, what ratto didn't take into account is that it was also a much more "big" oriented game back then as well. You would often have at least two very big dudes on the court at once.

I just don't know how the 80/90's defenses could handle the curry pnr. Would they have Ewing/Oakley fighting thru the screen which would leave curry wide open. Few teams actually switched the pnr back then. Those defenses simply weren't equipped to guard someone who could shoot from 30 feet.

ducky23 said:

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ClayK said:

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I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

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Also putting Kawhi on Steph is probably something they'll do in certain stretches but it's completeky unsustainable for the entire game.

If Kawhi is on Steph, all that will happen is they will run dray at point (making him the main ball handler) and run Steph all around the court thru multiple screen. There is zero way Toronto wants to see an already hobbled Kawhi running around chasing Steph thru screens the entire game. He will get tired. He will get more hurt. He may pick up more fouls. And he probably won't be able to stay with Steph anyways.

Guarding Giannis and guarding Steph are two very different things.

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I love it.
Ha.
Good commentary!!!

I had been thinking.... didn't the Cavs have Lebron on Curry for a good bit? How did that go?

HoopDreams said:

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Steph impacts the game like few others.
His ball handling is all-universe


Impossible to rank players over generations and between positions

I think Curry is the best PG in this era (2000-2019)
And the best shooter ever

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Not so hard.

Put Magic on a team now and see how he does?
He'd be the same offensive threat due to his size, to see over everyone and to get in the paint, to post smaller guys. But I think you could slow down his team's fast break tempo, and I think you could harass him and get the ball out of his hands and/or force him to shoot outside.
Defensively, he'd be a bit of a liability to defend outside shooters. He just did NOT have good lateral mobility.

Magic had great passing, deferred to teammates to score, and great competitive fire and camaraderie! Those are alltime pluses! Winning attitude. But it would be funny watching him chase today's perimeter shooters around. He'd be exposed in that way. No way could Step defend him, but 3 is more than 2 - it's only taken 35 years for the league to figure that out!

Anyways, I like dreaming about it.
A bunch of great athletes and talents!!

philbert said:

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ducky23 said:

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ClayK said:

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I'd be tempted to put Kawhi on Curry and Gasol on Green. Iguodala isn't really an offensive factor so you can hide whoever you want there.

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Sigh

Putting gasol on green is almost as bad a coaching decision as sagging Kanter into the lane

Let me be clear about something. The curry/green pnr is probably the most deadly offensive weapon in basketball right now.

So if you're playing the warriors, your very first goal is to try to take that away, or at least minimize it.

Putting gasol on green would basically be like pouring gasoline on a flame.


Also putting Kawhi on Steph is probably something they'll do in certain stretches but it's completeky unsustainable for the entire game.

If Kawhi is on Steph, all that will happen is they will run dray at point (making him the main ball handler) and run Steph all around the court thru multiple screen. There is zero way Toronto wants to see an already hobbled Kawhi running around chasing Steph thru screens the entire game. He will get tired. He will get more hurt. He may pick up more fouls. And he probably won't be able to stay with Steph anyways.

Guarding Giannis and guarding Steph are two very different things.

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Good points. This article details the problems Steph causes defenses because he is so good with the ball and without the ball. Usually, a great player is really good at one or the other, but not both.

https://theathletic.com/993869/2019/05/24/steph-currys-undeniable-legacy-and-his-chance-to-join-the-nbas-mount-rushmore/

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Without having read the article, if KD does not play and Curry can do to Giannis or Kawhi what he did to the Trailblazers (30ppg) and Harden, he will definitely have completed a master run!

Who else from this era does he need to beat?
He already wiped out Durant and Westbrook at OKC.

ducky23 said:

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HoopDreams said:

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Steph impacts the game like few others.
His ball handling is all-universe


Impossible to rank players over generations and between positions

I think Curry is the best PG in this era (2000-2019)
And the best shooter ever

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There was an interesting discussion on radio the other day where ray ratto was basically arguing Steph wouldn't be as effective in the 80-90's cause it was a more physical game and he wouldn't had as much freedom of movement.

While true, what ratto didn't take into account is that it was also a much more "big" oriented game back then as well. You would often have at least two very big dudes on the court at once.

I just don't know how the 80/90's defenses could handle the curry pnr. Would they have Ewing/Oakley fighting thru the screen which would leave curry wide open. Few teams actually switched the pnr back then. Those defenses simply weren't equipped to guard someone who could shoot from 30 feet.

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Well, that's the thing!
Back then, it was always tippy toes up to the 3 point line. Today, it's another 5 feet back, and there's not just 1 guy at that distance, but two, plus two other dudes on the court that force you to defend out there.

What's Iguodala's 3pt% compared to the top distance shooters from the late 80's? Point is, our worst shooter is their best.

Someday, a guy 2 inches taller and 20-30 pounds heavier will come along and shoot like Curry. Until then, he holds that title.

Curry would be hand-checked by bigger defenders. They would focus on his shot and use their hands to prevent penetration. these same hand-checks would make it harder to get by the pick and roll defender. that is why 2 bigs could play on the floor at the same time.

Today's perimeter players would absolutely crush the hand-check, slow footed 2-bigs defense of the 80's/90's using the pnr.

And if a team had a generational big like Shaq, that would be interesting.

concordtom said:

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Someday, a guy 2 inches taller and 20-30 pounds heavier will come along and shoot like Curry. Until then, he holds that title.

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You mean like Klay Thompson???

(Steph actually edges Klay slightly: 43.6% to 41.9%)

I just looked at MJ's career stats. Averaged 1.7 3pt att gm.

His first 3 years he practically never shot 3's (less than 1 att/gm) because he was terrible (16%).

His career eFG% is only 50%, a career high of 55%. Curry hasn't had an eFG% that low since his rookie year, Klay since his 3rd year.

It's all just fantasy as nothing we say about era comparisons are falsifiable, but I'm pretty certain many of the "greats" of yesteryear would be carrying jock straps in today's era, if even worthy of a roster spot. I think Jordan would have been very good, but not an all-time great. I think Tragic would be carrying jock straps. Marovich would be selling hot dogs in the stands.

GBear4Life said:

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Today's perimeter players would absolutely crush the hand-check, slow footed 2-bigs defense of the 80's/90's using the pnr.

And if a team had a generational big like Shaq, that would be interesting.

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no, they wouldnt. the big would only have to slow curry down enough so that the picked defender could catch up to him.

Comparing 3pt shooting to prior eras is a bit dicey though. You think that as competitive as Jordan or Magic were that if the rules changed to encourage shooting more threes (and they have), they wouldn't have practiced that and gotten better at it? Watch the East Finals: Marc Gasol and Brook Lopez are shooting threes! Big guys like that would never have been asked to do that in the 80s and 90s, but now they do it to survive in the league. No way MJ doesn't do the same.

That said, Steph Curry is clearly otherworldly at long-range shooting and ballhandling, so I think he is also a great player no matter what.

It's official, Toronto vs Golden State. TY for your insight Ducky and all. Hope you guys are right.

Man, it's been stunning to watch just how badly the Bucks' half-court offense disintegrated in crunch time, every time. No one knew what to do once Giannis was stopped.

The Raptors didn't look too scary either, though. I guess they do have home court going for them.

Yes they do. They also have a few veterans on the team, versus what Milwaukee would have. Again, I am no basketball guru, but I am hoping Ducky is correct. To me, the Raptors look pretty good after the comeback of 15 points in the 3rd. They also did beat the Dubs both times in the regular season.
Go Dubs!!

sonofabear51 said:

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Yes they do. They also have a few veterans on the team, versus what Milwaukee would have. Again, I am no basketball guru, but I am hoping Ducky is correct. To me, the Raptors look pretty good after the comeback of 15 points in the 3rd. They also did beat the Dubs both times in the regular season.
Go Dubs!!

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IMO that comeback was mostly about Milwaukee imploding (again) when their basic offensive sets got shut down. There appeared to be no Plan B. That won't be the case with the Warriors.

The Raptors definitely have hungry veterans who will scrap, so if the Warriors don't play their best game then they could be beaten. If they play like they did against Portland, I don't see Toronto beating them 4 times.

oski003 said:

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Curry would be hand-checked by bigger defenders. They would focus on his shot and use their hands to prevent penetration. these same hand-checks would make it harder to get by the pick and roll defender. that is why 2 bigs could play on the floor at the same time.

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In the old rules, sure.
But those hand checks would be fouls today.

Here's my big picture view of the upcoming series

Current odds: opened around -275 has jumped to as high as -320 (which is roughly 75%). I think that's about right. If warriors don't play well, they could lose, but they are rightfully the odds on favorite

The good:

- raptors offense doesn't seem frightening and looks fairly easy to scheme against. While Kawhi is a much better all around player than harden, he cannot break down a defense like harden can. Assuming no kd, I think iggy should be fine against Kawhi and won't even need that much help (meaning guys like Lowry, Powell, VanVleet shouldn't get too many open looks). I expect the dubs will turn Kawhi into a high volume shooter, taking mostly contested mid range shots. I don't think that type of offense can threaten the warriors

- gasol: gasol has played decently during the playoffs and the raptors have tended to rely on him as a bit of a stabilizing force. Against the dubs, I don't see how he's going to be playable for extended mins. He's just too much of a defensive liability defending in space. The raptors will have to play small a lot during this series, and I don't think they're that accustomed to playing small ball.

- lack of depth: raptors only play 8 guys (7 if gasol proves to be unplayable). Raptors have been fortunate that VanVleet and Powell have played well recently, but they haven't been consistent this playoffs.

- lack of familiarity: this one, I think, is going to be the killer for the raptors. Playing against the warriors during the regular season is one thing. Playing against them in the playoffs is a whole nother thing. The Cavs and lebron knew gojng in what it takes to beat the warriors. They knew the level of constant focus and intensity you have to have. The raptors have no idea what they're getting into. McCollum recently made some interesting comments on his podcast, inferring the the blazers were actually caught a bit off guard on just how precise the dubs are and how much their offense constantly moves. You can't have a single defensive lapse. The raptors have zero experience trying to defend the playoff warriors. I question whether they have the energy, focus and tenacity it takes. The clippers and Houston had that, but only because they are so used to playing the warriors.

Nick nurse: so this guy has coached in the UK, USBL and the d-league. This is his first year as an nba head coach. I have concerns whether he's ready for this. Guys like doc rivers and d'antoni have years of nba experience. And they have so much familiarity with the warriors. I have concerns whether nurse will make the adjustments needed in a timely fashion. For instance, if gasol starts getting cooked, how soon will nurse wait to bench him?

The boogie factor: sounds like he's going to defintely be playing (possibly by game 1). Even if he's not 100% or particularly playing well, just having him will be huge for the dubs. First it gives them a legit second option when the dubs go with their second unit. It's tough with that lineup when you just have klay running around. Second, it may allow the dubs to start looney (since cousins may be able to give you 10-15 mins) which allows the warriors to play their best lineup from the tip.

The bad

- raptors defense: there is one requirement a team must have to even have a chance at beating the warriors. They have to have the right defensive personnel. Ideally you need to have a bunch of guys who can all play physical, play defense in space and be able to switch everything. Portland had too many guys who couldn't switch on defense and their guards are too small to play physical defense. That's why I've always believed Houston is the greatest threat because they've been specifically built to defend the warriors. Raptors are similar. Both Kawhi and siakim are bigs who can switch everything, which will force the dubs to play one on one basketball instead of the easy ball movemennt offense you saw against Portland. This is all moot if the raptors play gasol extended mins.

- pace and turnovers: the only way to beat the warriors is to force them jnto a half court game. Again, it's why Houston is such a difficult challenge for the warriors (morey does know what he's doing). So you must limit your turnovers, control the pace and play exceptional transition d. Those are all things the raptors do well.

* all of the above assumes kd doesn't play. If kd comes back fairly early in the series and is healthy, then the raptors have no chance (unless kd completely fks up the chemistry - which seems unlikely).

Nice write up, Ducky.

Here's their first game in November.
No Boogie, no Curry. But damn, look at those two 3's late bynKD to force OT! Sick!