US Inflation - it could be worse

149,699 Views | 1312 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by movielover
DiabloWags
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dimitrig said:

wifeisafurd said:

At the same time, U.S. inflation has continued to accelerate particularly for food staples, but also for long term items such as housing and heath insurance costs (so much for blaming everything on temporary C-19 shortages), European inflation has skyrocketed. Germany, with its normal stable economy, has had inflation hitting a 40-year high at its most recent reading of producer price inflation just hit a jaw-dropping 25.9 - this before the Ukraine war started and gas prices climbed.

So let's play the US now is In a global economy game. Another concern is that the highest inflation rate in generations abroad could lead to increased inflation expectations, which could create a vicious cycle of higher expectations creating even higher inflation. The FED considers inflation in the US basically a nothing burger with a 2% inflation target - that may change.

Amazing how Brandon is also ruining the German economy with his policies!



What's NOT amazing is that the poster who claimed that Sacramento is part of the Bay Area and that there is plenty of water in California.... just not enough reservoirs, or that a 50% collapse in the stock market wouldnt be a big deal - - - is the same guy that has no clue that Germany's current inflation rate at a 40 year high (as well as the rest of the Eurozone) is due to Russia attacking Ukraine, causing natural gas and energy prices to surge by 45%.

Please tell me you did not go to CAL.



AunBear89
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OdontoBear66 said:

dajo9 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

AunBear89 said:

That's a predictably partisan response. No real thought put in to it, just listing a bunch of Democratic politicians. Cuz, ya know, " Dems are bad!"
Those happened to be the opposition to the people elected for whom I was questioned. Much poorer choices.


Imagine still thinking George W Bush was a better choice for President than any candidate from either major party who ran for President in the last 40 years who isn't named Trump.
Gore or Kerry? Yup. Even in retrospect. Even with the stupid entry into the Iraq War. Yup.


Quod erat demonstrandum. Anyone with a pulse and an R.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Unit2Sucks
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OdontoBear66 said:

dajo9 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

AunBear89 said:

That's a predictably partisan response. No real thought put in to it, just listing a bunch of Democratic politicians. Cuz, ya know, " Dems are bad!"
Those happened to be the opposition to the people elected for whom I was questioned. Much poorer choices.


Imagine still thinking George W Bush was a better choice for President than any candidate from either major party who ran for President in the last 40 years who isn't named Trump.
Gore or Kerry? Yup. Even in retrospect. Even with the stupid entry into the Iraq War. Yup.
What did we have to lose? Seriously. What calamity would a Kerry presidency have potentially brought? Do you think his leadership could have ushered in a massive financial crisis? Wars?

Functionally speaking, hard to imagine a worse outcome than what we got under Bush. Some of it was outside his control, but I don't think anyone would argue that his presidency was anything other than a total disaster. I've heard plenty of Republicans who feel this way, including those who like Trump and those who hate Trump.

dimitrig
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DiabloWags said:

dimitrig said:

wifeisafurd said:

At the same time, U.S. inflation has continued to accelerate particularly for food staples, but also for long term items such as housing and heath insurance costs (so much for blaming everything on temporary C-19 shortages), European inflation has skyrocketed. Germany, with its normal stable economy, has had inflation hitting a 40-year high at its most recent reading of producer price inflation just hit a jaw-dropping 25.9 - this before the Ukraine war started and gas prices climbed.

So let's play the US now is In a global economy game. Another concern is that the highest inflation rate in generations abroad could lead to increased inflation expectations, which could create a vicious cycle of higher expectations creating even higher inflation. The FED considers inflation in the US basically a nothing burger with a 2% inflation target - that may change.

Amazing how Brandon is also ruining the German economy with his policies!

What's NOT amazing is that the poster who claimed that Sacramento is part of the Bay Area and that there is plenty of water in California.... just not enough reservoirs, or that a 50% collapse in the stock market wouldnt be a big deal - - - is the same guy that has no clue that Germany's current inflation rate at a 40 year high (as well as the rest of the Eurozone) is due to Russia attacking Ukraine, causing natural gas and energy prices to surge by 45%.

Please tell me you did not go to CAL.

Your sarcasm detector is broken.

DiabloWags
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dimitrig said:

DiabloWags said:




What's NOT amazing is that the poster who claimed that Sacramento is part of the Bay Area and that there is plenty of water in California.... just not enough reservoirs, or that a 50% collapse in the stock market wouldnt be a big deal - - - is the same guy that has no clue that Germany's current inflation rate at a 40 year high (as well as the rest of the Eurozone) is due to Russia attacking Ukraine, causing natural gas and energy prices to surge by 45%.

Please tell me you did not go to CAL.

Your sarcasm detector is broken.



Nice try.
wifeisafurd
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DiabloWags said:

dimitrig said:

wifeisafurd said:

At the same time, U.S. inflation has continued to accelerate particularly for food staples, but also for long term items such as housing and heath insurance costs (so much for blaming everything on temporary C-19 shortages), European inflation has skyrocketed. Germany, with its normal stable economy, has had inflation hitting a 40-year high at its most recent reading of producer price inflation just hit a jaw-dropping 25.9 - this before the Ukraine war started and gas prices climbed.

So let's play the US now is In a global economy game. Another concern is that the highest inflation rate in generations abroad could lead to increased inflation expectations, which could create a vicious cycle of higher expectations creating even higher inflation. The FED considers inflation in the US basically a nothing burger with a 2% inflation target - that may change.

Amazing how Brandon is also ruining the German economy with his policies!



What's NOT amazing is that the poster who claimed that Sacramento is part of the Bay Area and that there is plenty of water in California.... just not enough reservoirs, or that a 50% collapse in the stock market wouldnt be a big deal - - - is the same guy that has no clue that Germany's current inflation rate at a 40 year high (as well as the rest of the Eurozone) is due to Russia attacking Ukraine, causing natural gas and energy prices to surge by 45%.

Please tell me you did not go to CAL.




Europe has issues. It is not just Germany, but most of the EU countries that are having huge inflation. The inflation came before Ukraine, but has been made worse by Ukraine.

The official reasons given have changed, but Madame Lagarde started by blaming supply shock from the pandemic, and higher food prices. For example, supermarket shelves in Germany were empty, as consumers have snapped up more than their share in anticipation of potential shortages. She indicated that the problems were exacerbated by lengthy transport strikes (some of which were protests against government C-19 restrictions). Also there were higher prices regionally in clothing and hospitality and leisure services post-lockdown as some European countries had more burdensome C-19 controls than others.


Her latest and greatest, is that the inflationary impact of the Ukraine war has triggered a surge in the price of oil, gas and other commodities. With the war pushing up prices, she has predicted "slashing growth and draining consumer and business confidence" (she is gone into a be prepared for stagflation mode). Per Lagrade in her latest speech: "Clearly, the longer the war lasts, the higher the economic costs will be and the greater the likelihood we end up in lengthy adverse scenarios."

One difference from the US, which has a tight jobs market, is the outlook for the EU labour market, which also worsened as consumer unemployment expectations rose sharply and employment expectations dipped in most sectors, except for basic services, again per Madame Lagarde.

The tone of the language between Lagarde, and her US counterpart Powell, are quite different at the risk of understatement.

concordtom
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Goobear said:

concordtom said:

Banking tax havens?

I don't think this is a meaningless table. Throw out the special cases (which you have highlighted) and just consider the overall trend, combined with my post above about minimum wage and how the US would be economically more prosperous if we lowered wages, not increased them.

The essense of what I'm trying to point to is that the US has to compete with the nations closest to us (easiest transport of goods) and the largest nations (India and China). We price ourselves out of much production because our wages are so high.

How much does a big mac cost in USD in China?
Why?



Surely I am no expert in this subject and am making too simplistic assumptions.
But I know that lots of jobs have left this country because it's cheaper to do them elsewhere.
When we add on minimum wages laws across the board - say, for that 15 year old greeter at Rocco's Pizza at Ygnacio and Oak Grove - then prices go up everywhere.

Certainly, one can't transport Rocco's or said 15 year old to another part of the world, but all the costs of living added up would influence a plant manager to move his factory elsewhere, dontcha think?
That's why factories leave California - too costly….what a lot of people forget there a tons of businesses that never make it. Money is lost. If there are no incentives to make money there is no production. We would have what the Russians had in the seventies and eighties… Lada…not Tesla…
Okay, yes - exactly.
Tax structure, minimum wage laws, environmental regulations, OSHA - all non-market cost increases.
I'm for the environoment part. Because otherwise none of it will matter.
concordtom
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dajo9 said:

OdontoBear66 said:

AunBear89 said:

That's a predictably partisan response. No real thought put in to it, just listing a bunch of Democratic politicians. Cuz, ya know, " Dems are bad!"
Those happened to be the opposition to the people elected for whom I was questioned. Much poorer choices.


Imagine still thinking George W Bush was a better choice for President than any candidate from either major party who ran for President in the last 40 years who isn't named Trump.
Obama is the guy who had his heart and his priorities straight.
He was smart, honest, conscientious.
His problem was he was elected too soon, too inexperienced, too trusting of his foes. And his skin color, of course. That brought out a backlash we are still living in.
concordtom
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dimitrig said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Goobear said:

concordtom said:

Banking tax havens?

I don't think this is a meaningless table. Throw out the special cases (which you have highlighted) and just consider the overall trend, combined with my post above about minimum wage and how the US would be economically more prosperous if we lowered wages, not increased them.

The essense of what I'm trying to point to is that the US has to compete with the nations closest to us (easiest transport of goods) and the largest nations (India and China). We price ourselves out of much production because our wages are so high.

How much does a big mac cost in USD in China?
Why?



Surely I am no expert in this subject and am making too simplistic assumptions.
But I know that lots of jobs have left this country because it's cheaper to do them elsewhere.
When we add on minimum wages laws across the board - say, for that 15 year old greeter at Rocco's Pizza at Ygnacio and Oak Grove - then prices go up everywhere.

Certainly, one can't transport Rocco's or said 15 year old to another part of the world, but all the costs of living added up would influence a plant manager to move his factory elsewhere, dontcha think?
That's why factories leave California - too costly….what a lot of people forget there a tons of businesses that never make it. Money is lost. If there are no incentives to make money there is no production. We would have what the Russians had in the seventies and eighties… Lada…not Tesla…
A lot of businesses leave because other states give huge incentives, eg corporate welfare. See the debacle in Wisconsin with Foxconn. Texas "wins" a lot of business from California in part by giving corporate tax breaks. Whether it will ultimately benefit its citizens remains to be seen but it can generate a race to the bottom. I believe Texas has decided not to reauthorize one of its big tax credits so we'll see if it has an impact on businesses relocating to Texas. So far, California doesn't seem to be missing out given that we seem to be performing quite well. A lot of people (let's be honest, mostly conservatives) don't want to believe it's true, but it's true.

Quote:

By adding 1.3 million people to its non-farm payrolls since April last year equal to the entire workforce of Nevada California easily surpassed also-rans Texas and New York. At the same time, California household income increased $164 billion, almost as much as Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No wonder California's operating budget surplus, fueled by its surging economy and capital gains taxes, swelled to a record $75 billion.

If anything, Covid-19 accelerated California's record productivity. Quarterly revenue per employee of the publicly traded companies based in the state climbed to an all-time high of $1.5 million in May, 63% greater than its similar milestone a decade ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rest of the U.S. was nothing special, with productivity among those members of the Russell 3000 Index, which is made up of both large and small companies, little changed during the past 10 years.


I call the people fleeing California to other states, mostly with huge sums of money earned in California, quitters.

They won't be missed.


More like Cash Outs?
Unit2Sucks
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I learned today that George Bush was actually a nazi. I wonder if that changes how republicans like Odonto feel about their prior votes?



I'm obviously not taking this person seriously, but sadly this person is probably closer to the center of the current Republican party than people like Odonto.
going4roses
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How many of them are they? They are reproducing.
They are in Congress they are judges/prosecutors/cops they are educators at all levels they are everywhere causing daily damage(wide rage). Daily Damage to others if only mentally (constant impending threats) up and through physically.
How (are) you gonna win when you ain’t right within…
DiabloWags
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"George Bush was actually a Nazi"

Who knew?

AunBear89
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DiabloWags said:

"George Bush was actually a Nazi"

Who knew?



Poor thing. Probably has him confused with Prescott Bush, the granddaddy and Nazi adjacent financier.
Unit2Sucks
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AunBear89 said:

DiabloWags said:

"George Bush was actually a Nazi"

Who knew?



Poor thing. Probably has him confused with Prescott Bush, the granddaddy and Nazi adjacent financier.
Let's not give her too much credit. She probably believes the moon landing was faked, that democrats feed on adrenochrome and traffic children in a pizza parlor and that jewish space lasers exist. The conservative movement has become inseparable from the batshut crazy qanon crowd and thanks to Facebook, this type of insane counterfactual BS is as likely to turn up at a Republican rally in 2022 as are old school conservative political ideas and like facts.
DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:

AunBear89 said:

DiabloWags said:

"George Bush was actually a Nazi"

Who knew?



Poor thing. Probably has him confused with Prescott Bush, the granddaddy and Nazi adjacent financier.
Let's not give her too much credit. She probably believes the moon landing was faked, that democrats feed on adrenochrome and traffic children in a pizza parlor and that jewish space lasers exist. The conservative movement has become inseparable from the batshut crazy qanon crowd and thanks to Facebook, this type of insane counterfactual BS is as likely to turn up at a Republican rally in 2022 as are old school conservative political ideas and like facts.


Sadly, the race to the BOTTOM continues.
And we arent there yet.
DiabloWags
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Yesterday, the FOMC Minutes from their March Meeting were released and they showed that officials signaled that they will reduce their massive bond holdings at a max pace of $95 BILLION a month.

The minutes also mentioned that "many officials" held the view that one or more 50 basis point rate hikes could be in the offing.

Futures markets are already betting on a further 225 basis points of increases this year.
That would mean 3 x 50 bp rate hikes and 3 x 25 bp rate hikes occurring at each of the six remaining Fed Meeting.

Dudley literally came out and implied that the FED needs to be very aggressive in "breaking" the Wealth Effect of the markets.
OdontoBear66
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DiabloWags said:

Yesterday, the FOMC Minutes from their March Meeting were released and they showed that officials signaled that they will reduce their massive bond holdings at a max pace of $95 BILLION a month.

The minutes also mentioned that "many officials" held the view that one or more 50 basis point rate hikes could be in the offing.

Futures markets are already betting on a further 225 basis points of increases this year.
That would mean 3 x 50 bp rate hikes and 3 x 25 bp rate hikes occurring at each of the six remaining Fed Meeting.

Dudley literally came out and implied that the FED needs to be very aggressive in "breaking" the Wealth Effect of the markets.

And to make up for the prolonged stimulus spending since March of 2009. Very much essential at first, but carried on way to long. Not complaining as an equity investor, but from the overall good of the country, twas a decision gauged to the wrong premise. Tightening should have begun a number of years ago.
dimitrig
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OdontoBear66 said:

DiabloWags said:

Yesterday, the FOMC Minutes from their March Meeting were released and they showed that officials signaled that they will reduce their massive bond holdings at a max pace of $95 BILLION a month.

The minutes also mentioned that "many officials" held the view that one or more 50 basis point rate hikes could be in the offing.

Futures markets are already betting on a further 225 basis points of increases this year.
That would mean 3 x 50 bp rate hikes and 3 x 25 bp rate hikes occurring at each of the six remaining Fed Meeting.

Dudley literally came out and implied that the FED needs to be very aggressive in "breaking" the Wealth Effect of the markets.

And to make up for the prolonged stimulus spending since March of 2009. Very much essential at first, but carried on way to long. Not complaining as an equity investor, but from the overall good of the country, twas a decision gauged to the wrong premise. Tightening should have begun a number of years ago.

Instead Republicans passed a tax cut

DiabloWags
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OdontoBear66 said:


And to make up for the prolonged stimulus spending since March of 2009. Very much essential at first, but carried on way to long. Not complaining as an equity investor, but from the overall good of the country, twas a decision gauged to the wrong premise. Tightening should have begun a number of years ago.

I would tend to agree with everything that you said.

Trump signing a $2.2 Trillion Stimulus CARES ACT (with the potential to go as high as $6 Trillion) was pouring far too much gas on a fire. It was overkill, especially in light of the known supply-chain issues.

That having been said, I dont think that the FED had to start tightening a number of years ago.
They could have started last Summer, as Larry Summers had been suggesting.

Given that real rates are still negative and unemployment is still quite low and the financial system is still quite "buoyant"..... I have no doubt that the FED will literally wind up throwing the economy into a Recession in order to take back control of inflation. As Bill Dudley suggested, they will do this by creating a negative wealth effect. Liberals here will be quite happy . . . that is, until either they or someone they know, loses their job.

As I have said on many occasions here, the FED is so late to the "party" that it really isnt funny.
And I'm not so sure that selling off $95 Billion (max) in Bonds will be as aggressive as they need to be in order to realize their goal. Their balance sheet is at $9 Trillion for Christ's sake!





DiabloWags
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March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.


Unit2Sucks
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DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.



Chances of a soft landing decrease with each passing month of high inflation.
DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.



Chances of a soft landing decrease with each passing month of high inflation.

The Fed hasnt been able to execute a "soft" landing since 1994.
And they've never executed raising rates and trimming their balance sheet simultaneously.
This is all very new for them.

wifeisafurd
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Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.



Chances of a soft landing decrease with each passing month of high inflation.
I'm afraid Unit 2 and Diablo are correct, and Wall Street is stating to agree. I also see a divided government coming, and I'm not sure what that means for fiscal policy. Sorry to be such a bear.
Unit2Sucks
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wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.



Chances of a soft landing decrease with each passing month of high inflation.
I'm afraid Unit 2 and Diablo are correct, and Wall Street is stating to agree. I also see a divided government coming, and I'm not sure what that means for fiscal policy. Sorry to be such a bear.
I first noticed the out of power political party cheering for a recession in 2001 when Bush one and democrats were bitter. It struck me as extremely distasteful to be so partisan that you actually hope for a bad outcome in order to help you regain power. Man, have naive I was back then. Now it's pretty obvious that each party hopes for disaster while the other is in power and will often take active steps to exacerbate (see Republicans with fiscal cliff shenanigans). Any hope that we have of reducing the chances of a recession by political efforts should be out the door. I'm not sure at this point that the government can do anything to prevent the onset of a recession so it may be academic but I think Republicans like Trump will welcome bad economic news they can tag Biden with.

Meanwhile, inflation is a problem all over the world and we are starting to see protests globally, with leaders starting to be pressured to step down for failing to prevent it.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.





When I posted this a couple weeks ago,

"Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever."

And you responded with

"Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention;" and

"Sure looks like you're doing nothing but Trolling.
Or are you just being a noob?

Or are you genuinely serious about yapping about Lipstick on a Pig and the Fed . . . and yet the market has been in the green most of the session and closing 0.5% higher on the day?

Never mind that the S&P is up 9% since the low of 10 days ago on March 14th.

This post by you pretty much says it all.
It's why this thread is worthless;" and

"
If you educated yourself as much on the stock market as you have about Covid vaccines, you'd know just how ignorant and utterly ridiculous your post is."

Were you just having a bad day? Were you completely wrong there? Do you know what lipstick on a pig means?

DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.





When I posted this a couple weeks ago,

"Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever."

And you responded with

"Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention;" and


Were you just having a bad day? Were you completely wrong there? Do you know what lipstick on a pig means?


No, I wasnt having a bad day.
And yes, I still stand by my point that you werent paying attention to what the FED has been doing.

They changed their "tune" on monetary policy back in mid-December of 2021.
In other words, they havent been "propping" up the market.

The Fed - December 14-15, 2021 FOMC Meeting (federalreserve.gov)

oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

March CPI surges to 8.5% in March.

February's YoY rate was 7.9%

Stay tuned for how the FED will now "crash" the economy.
The next eight months are going to be ugly.





When I posted this a couple weeks ago,

"Market drop today. Is the lipstick coming off the pig? The FED can't prop it up forever."

And you responded with

"Never mind that your post above "The FED cant prop it up forever" shows that you really havent been paying attention;" and


Were you just having a bad day? Were you completely wrong there? Do you know what lipstick on a pig means?


No, I wasnt having a bad day.
And yes, I still stand by my point that you werent paying attention to what the FED has been doing.

They changed their "tune" on monetary policy back in mid-December of 2021.
In other words, they havent been "propping" up the market.

The Fed - December 14-15, 2021 FOMC Meeting (federalreserve.gov)




You are certainly dug in. You were 100% wrong in blasting me above. Not worth arguing with someone who thinks they are right 110% of the time. I generally enjoy your posts regardless.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:



You are certainly dug in. You were 100% wrong in blasting me above. Not worth arguing with someone who thinks they are right 110% of the time. I generally enjoy your posts regardless.

Funny.
If you only knew.

I follow this stuff like a "hawk" because I've got a ton of skin in the game.
The markets arent for everyone. You're only successful if you can admit if you're wrong half the time.
And if you arent paying attention, you really shouldnt even be on the playing field.




DiabloWags
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We are now challenging the 2019 high in yields.
A picture is worth a thousand words...

US10Y Price The Government Bond Chart TradingView

BearForce2
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Unit2Sucks
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It's interesting some of the steps the Biden admin is taking to tamp down inflation. The EPA is going to allow more ethanol in gas to reduce prices. Given that a big part of recent inflation has been energy prices, it could have a meaningful impact. The most recent PCE excluding food and energy was at 5.4% which is meaningfully lower than the overall PCE. Of course, China's current lockdown could lead to even higher prices, so we're not through the woods yet.

As I noted previously, inflation is a worldwide problem so there is only so much we can do as one nation but maybe we will get lucky.
wifeisafurd
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Unit2Sucks said:

It's interesting some of the steps the Biden admin is taking to tamp down inflation. The EPA is going to allow more ethanol in gas to reduce prices. Given that a big part of recent inflation has been energy prices, it could have a meaningful impact. The most recent PCE excluding food and energy was at 5.4% which is meaningfully lower than the overall PCE. Of course, China's current lockdown could lead to even higher prices, so we're not through the woods yet.

As I noted previously, inflation is a worldwide problem so there is only so much we can do as one nation but maybe we will get lucky.
Inflation very much is a worldwide problem and I think it will take down some incumbents, maybe even Macron, which is scary. In any event, looking at mu comments, I feel like a ***** compared to Joe Manchin who launched on everyone today.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/manchin-inflation-biden-white-house

Got a feeling Joe is not in much of a compromising mood these days.

dimitrig
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wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

It's interesting some of the steps the Biden admin is taking to tamp down inflation. The EPA is going to allow more ethanol in gas to reduce prices. Given that a big part of recent inflation has been energy prices, it could have a meaningful impact. The most recent PCE excluding food and energy was at 5.4% which is meaningfully lower than the overall PCE. Of course, China's current lockdown could lead to even higher prices, so we're not through the woods yet.

As I noted previously, inflation is a worldwide problem so there is only so much we can do as one nation but maybe we will get lucky.
Inflation very much is a worldwide problem and I think it will take down some incumbents, maybe even Macron, which is scary. In any event, looking at mu comments, I feel like a ***** compared to Joe Manchin who launched on everyone today.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/manchin-inflation-biden-white-house

Got a feeling Joe is not in much of a compromising mood these days.


This guy should just run as R and get it over with.


OdontoBear66
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DiabloWags said:

OdontoBear66 said:



The average Joe may be a tad smarter than you think...e.g. Only 6% think Putin is responsible for the price of gas going up.

Are they smart enough to blame our good "friends" the Saudi's and OPEC+ for that?

Or do they just listen to the talking heads at Faux News and parrot the typical Biden bashing narrative of
"He closed down the Keystone Pipeline, blah, blah, blah " - - - too dumb to know that the first 3 phases of Keystone have been open and in service for quite some time.



Has nothing to do with media. Biden and fellow Dems have wanted to reduce carbon emissions in the US and decreasing extraction of fossil fuels is a big part of that policy. We were either energy independent or close to same when he came in. It is noble for all of us to reduce our carbon footprint, but when alternate energy systems can backfill the loss of energy. We are just not there yet. All for it. But when you decrease supply you increase demand and price.

Then you increase energy source/dependence with someone's who you are at odds with, whether it be the Saudi's, Russia, Iran, is just weird. If oil comes out of the ground and we in the US use it, what difference does it make if we buy it abroad, or extract it ourselves. Until we can depend on alt sources, the current policy seems crazy to me. But the bent of the current administration is to not be energy independent, and then walk it back as we move to alt sources.
Unit2Sucks
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OdontoBear66 said:

DiabloWags said:

OdontoBear66 said:



The average Joe may be a tad smarter than you think...e.g. Only 6% think Putin is responsible for the price of gas going up.

Are they smart enough to blame our good "friends" the Saudi's and OPEC+ for that?

Or do they just listen to the talking heads at Faux News and parrot the typical Biden bashing narrative of
"He closed down the Keystone Pipeline, blah, blah, blah " - - - too dumb to know that the first 3 phases of Keystone have been open and in service for quite some time.



Has nothing to do with media. Biden and fellow Dems have wanted to reduce carbon emissions in the US and decreasing extraction of fossil fuels is a big part of that policy. We were either energy independent or close to same when he came in. It is noble for all of us to reduce our carbon footprint, but when alternate energy systems can backfill the loss of energy. We are just not there yet. All for it. But when you decrease supply you increase demand and price.

Then you increase energy source/dependence with someone's who you are at odds with, whether it be the Saudi's, Russia, Iran, is just weird. If oil comes out of the ground and we in the US use it, what difference does it make if we buy it abroad, or extract it ourselves. Until we can depend on alt sources, the current policy seems crazy to me. But the bent of the current administration is to not be energy independent, and then walk it back as we move to alt sources.
First - were only theoretically energy independent (meaning a net exporter) because COVID ravaged our country and destroyed demand for gas.

Second - as has been stated over and over, there is a worldwide market for oil. Even if we were a net exporter, the price of oil would be set by OPEC, not by the supply and demand curve of US oil in the US. Unless conservatives are planning to eliminate oil exports, the fact that we theoretically produce enough oil to meet domestic demand is cute but not relevant to the price of oil. If Chevron can sell at $80 per barrel in the US market or $150 per barrel on the global market, guess which one it would do.

Energy "independence" sounds good to fearful people but it's only really helpful in the event we are actually engaged in a hot war and have our international supply cut out. In that circumstance, I'm confident we would spend the money to get oil wells up and running to meet internal demand. Until that happens, I'm not sure I see the benefit of US producers exceeding domestic demand, apart from the small global benefit of increased supply which will marginally lower price based for everyone.
 
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