dajo9 said:

---

movielover said:

---

Will another bank collapse spur major adjustments? Will / has commercial real estate tanked, and would a drop there affect residential housing?

---

A crash in commercial real estate will create more supply for housing as properties are transitioned over - which is a good thing for housing because there is a shortage.

Commercial real estate is likely to have tough times ahead because of the internet continuing to displace retail and work from home policies reducing demand for office space. Both of these are changes that benefit people.

---

WFH is not only displacing office space but also everything that relies on that office space such as eateries, boutiques, bars (for after work), salons, and so on.

A lot of people do their shopping where they work, especially if they work in an area with a better selection and variety of stores than where they live.

That said, people seem more willing to return to the office than I thought they would.

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates 25 Basis Points

Fed Funds Rate now at 5 - 5.25%

In Wednesday's statement, the Fed said, "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic an financial developments."

This language replaces the Fed's framing back in March, which had said the central bank, "anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time."

dimitrig said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

movielover said:

---

Will another bank collapse spur major adjustments? Will / has commercial real estate tanked, and would a drop there affect residential housing?

---

A crash in commercial real estate will create more supply for housing as properties are transitioned over - which is a good thing for housing because there is a shortage.

Commercial real estate is likely to have tough times ahead because of the internet continuing to displace retail and work from home policies reducing demand for office space. Both of these are changes that benefit people.

---

WFH is not only displacing office space but also everything that relies on that office space such as eateries, boutiques, bars (for after work), salons, and so on.

A lot of people do their shopping where they work, especially if they work in an area with a better selection and variety of stores than where they live.

That said, people seem more willing to return to the office than I thought they would.

---

I think that is exactly right.

One thing that people do not realize is how much interest rate hike has and will have a negative impact on commercial real estate. Most commercial real estate investment is based on cash flow, and most commercial real estate investments are financed on adjustable rates or short-term loans.

As refinancing / interest rate adjustment comes into play, even bigger players will just dump their commercial real property back to the banks.

That will only accelerate reduced commercial demand, adjacent employment and revenue as you had indicated, and accelerate recession and increase unemployment (all of which are, in fact, intended results of interest rate hikes).

Commercial real estate and residential real estate are not interchangeable and do not benefit homeowners when there is massive default in nearby commercial.

We have seen all of these developments before. History is a great teacher if we are humble enough to learn from them.

Having said that, until inflation is lower than or equal to the interest rate, this is all necessary.

In other inflation news, Porsche has announced (yet another) price increase across the board of 4 - 8% for Europe and North America.

This is on top of a recent $13,000 price increase in the MSRP of a 992 GT3, for MY 2024.
From $169,700 for MY 2023 to $182,700. MY 2023 had increased $8,600 from MY 2022 at $161,100


Porsche Raising Prices Even After Posting a Profit (msn.com)

A Shocking April Unemployment Report:

253,000 NFP jobs created vs the expectation of 180,000

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.4% vs. +4.2% expected

Unemployment Rate falls to 3.4%
The lowest since May 1969.

DiabloWags said:

---

A Shocking April Unemployment Report:

253,000 NFP jobs created vs the expectation of 180,000

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.4% vs. +4.2% expected

Unemployment Rate falls to 3.4%
The lowest since May 1969.

---

Horse hockey! I'm pretty sure that unemployment under Trump was 0.01%, which was the lowest in the history of forever.

movielover said:

---

(OPEC cuts oil production 500,000 barrels per day.)

BBC - Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output

"The price of Brent Crude oil jumped by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555

---

I am unqualified to speak to Brent crude oil prices. movielover, can you give us an update?

dajo9 said:

---

movielover said:

---

(OPEC cuts oil production 500,000 barrels per day.)

BBC - Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output

"The price of Brent Crude oil jumped by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555

---

I am unqualified to speak to Brent crude oil prices. movielover, can you give us an update?

---

Movielover, it's been over a month. I need an update from you on the price of Brent since these production cuts began. The cuts must really be kicking in and impacting the economy now.

dajo9 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

movielover said:

---

(OPEC cuts oil production 500,000 barrels per day.)

BBC - Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output

"The price of Brent Crude oil jumped by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555

---

I am unqualified to speak to Brent crude oil prices. movielover, can you give us an update?

---

Movielover, it's been over a month. I need an update from you on the price of Brent since these production cuts began. The cuts must really be kicking in and impacting the economy now.

---

73.67

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

movielover said:

---

(OPEC cuts oil production 500,000 barrels per day.)

BBC - Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output

"The price of Brent Crude oil jumped by more than $5 a barrel, or 7%, to above $85 as trading began."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65157555

---

I am unqualified to speak to Brent crude oil prices. movielover, can you give us an update?

---

Movielover, it's been over a month. I need an update from you on the price of Brent since these production cuts began. The cuts must really be kicking in and impacting the economy now.

---

73.67

---

Thanks 003. Weird that movielover only posts about news in one direction and will not respond to information in the other direction, don't you think?

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

the economy now.

---

73.67

---

Thanks 003. Weird that movielover only posts about news in one direction and will not respond to information in the other direction, don't you think?

---

$77.01 at 5 pm Eastern. + $1.71

$76.79 currently in after hours.

You're welcome!

DiabloWags said:

---

A Shocking April Unemployment Report:

253,000 NFP jobs created vs the expectation of 180,000

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.4% vs. +4.2% expected

Unemployment Rate falls to 3.4%
The lowest since May 1969.

---

Maybe so. But that's U-3.

Didn't we use U-6 (or something closer to it) back in 1969? April U-6 was 6.6%, because it adds a) people who stopped looking for work, and; b) part-time workers to the overall workforce. U-3 removes people who stopped looking for work from the workforce.

U-6 is a far better measure of Real unemployment.

APRIL CPI at 4.9%

The Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 5.5%

Shelter (rent, lodging, and home insurance) is up 8.1% from a year ago.

Consumer Price Index rose 4.9% in April as Fed weighs more rate hikes (nypost.com)

Looks like the Fed will take a Summer vacation from continued rate hikes.

Comments by Powell, and (again) by NY Fed President John Williams on Friday imply a "pause".

https://t.co/yGAF40lLxa

— Larry Mishel (@LarryMishel) May 25, 2023

dajo9 said:

---

https://t.co/yGAF40lLxa

— Larry Mishel (@LarryMishel) May 25, 2023

---

Difference between the inflation rate and growth of wages in the United States from January 2020 to April 2023



https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

Try overlaying that "wage" chart above with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

• Sources of data: The CPI uses data from household surveys; the PCE uses data from the gross domestic product report and from suppliers. In addition, the PCE measures goods and services bought by all U.S. households and nonprofits. The CPI only accounts for all urban households.
• Coverage: The CPI only covers out-of-pocket expenditures on goods and services purchased. It excludes other expenditures that are not paid for directly (e.g., medical care paid for by employer-provided insurance, Medicare, or Medicaid). These are included in the PCE.
• Formulas: The CPI formula is more likely to be affected by categories with wide price swings such as computers and gasoline. The PCE calculations smooth out these price swings, which makes the PCE less volatile than the CPI.

In January 2023, the BLS plans to start updating weights for the CPI annually based on consumer expenditure data from a single year. This reflects a change from the prior practice of updating weights every two years using two years of expenditure data.

In January 2012, the Federal Reserve announced that it would use the PCE as its primary measure of inflation, preferring it for three primary reasons:

• The expenditure weights in the PCE can change as people substitute away from some goods and services toward others. Thus, if the price of bread goes up, people buy less bread, and the PCE uses a new basket of goods that accounts for people buying less bread. The CPI, however, is less fluid in response to changing consumer preferences.


• The PCE includes more comprehensive coverage of goods and services.


• PCE data can be revised more extensively than the CPI, which can only be adjusted for seasonal factors and only for the previous five years.

Let's go Brandon!

Hourly Compensation for American Workers

Projected: 4.9% increase
Revised: .7% decline
After inflation: 4.7% decline

'Bidenomics" drains pocketbooks.

— Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) June 7, 2023

Most striking point is he took office in Jan 2021 with 1.5% inflation. The rest speaks for its' "transitory" self.

Gas prices strikingly similar.

Listen to the Big Guy and he's bringing everything down. Yup

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Most striking point is he took office in Jan 2021 with 1.5% inflation. The rest speaks for its' "transitory" self.

Gas prices strikingly similar.

Listen to the Big Guy and he's bringing everything down. Yup

---

Of course, the Orange Buffoon had nothing to do with signing the biggest stimulus (CARES) package in history and a Fed Chairman that he appointed sending M2 to an unprecedented +40% increase and thinking that inflation was just transitory.

By the time Powell pulled his head out of his arse, inflation was already running at 7% in NOVEMBER 2021.

Those are FACTS.

Please tell me you arent this gullible.

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Most striking point is he took office in Jan 2021 with 1.5% inflation. The rest speaks for its' "transitory" self.

Gas prices strikingly similar.

Listen to the Big Guy and he's bringing everything down. Yup

---

Of course, the Orange Buffoon had nothing to do with signing the biggest stimulus (CARES) package in history and a Fed Chairman that he appointed sending M2 to an unprecedented +40% increase and thinking that inflation was just transitory.

By the time Powell pulled his head out of his arse, inflation was already running at 7% in NOVEMBER 2021.

Those are FACTS.

Please tell me you arent this gullible.

---

Usually most Presidents are accorded what goes on in their watch. The Orange Buffoon I have no liking for, but the facts speak for themselves. As if Biden's spending and fossil fuel limitations had no causative agency. Both are spenders beyond the pale, but the numbers here do not lie. The liars do. Repubs overspend on military given the chance, Dems on social issues. It is what it is, and the spending is and has been too much, too long.

Sadly, you're wrong and you dont even know why you're wrong.

We are pumping more oil domestically than we have in many moons, but you just dont want to hear that.
We've been down this road before and you dont care.
You are unable to accept facts.

FACT: Crude Oil Production hit a 3 YEAR HIGH in March as output rose to 12.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY.

Your "narrative" about Biden is totally false.
Yet, you keep repeating it as if it's true.

US crude March output hits 3-yr high as Texas production grows -EIA | Nasdaq

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Most striking point is he took office in Jan 2021 with 1.5% inflation. The rest speaks for its' "transitory" self.

Gas prices strikingly similar.

Listen to the Big Guy and he's bringing everything down. Yup

---

Of course, the Orange Buffoon had nothing to do with signing the biggest stimulus (CARES) package in history and a Fed Chairman that he appointed sending M2 to an unprecedented +40% increase and thinking that inflation was just transitory.

By the time Powell pulled his head out of his arse, inflation was already running at 7% in NOVEMBER 2021.

Those are FACTS.

Please tell me you arent this gullible.

---

Trump signed off on the package after he expressed displeasure with the spending outlined in the omnibus and to avoid government shutdown. Unemployment benefits were also expiring for millions of Americans as the bill went unsigned. Thank the Democrats for the large package, bro, Nancy probably didn't even know what was in it.

Another cool "story" by someone that has no idea what they're talking about.

Trump was BRAGGING about how big the spending package was on March 27, 2020.
With the potential of the spending going as high as $6.2 TRILLION.

Sorry, but you're just not a credible poster here.

Oval Office

4:10 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT:

Well, thank you all very much. This is a very important day. I'll sign the single-biggest economic relief package in American history and, I must say, or any other package, by the way. It's twice as large as any relief ever signed. It's $2.2 billion, but it actually goes up to 6.2 potentially billion dollars trillion dollars. So you're talking about 6.2 trillion-dollar bill. Nothing like that. And this will deliver urgently needed relief to our nation's families, workers, and businesses. And that's what this is all about.





Remarks by President Trump at Signing of H.R.748, The CARES Act The White House (archives.gov)

LOL You're good at quoting entire sections of Trump's speeches! Now do Charlottesville and J6.

DiabloWags said:

---

Another cool "story" by someone that has no idea what they're talking about.

Trump was BRAGGING about how big the spending package was on March 27, 2020.
With the potential of the spending going as high as $6.2 TRILLION.

Sorry, but you're just not a credible poster here.

Oval Office

4:10 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT:

Well, thank you all very much. This is a very important day. I'll sign the single-biggest economic relief package in American history and, I must say, or any other package, by the way. It's twice as large as any relief ever signed. It's $2.2 billion, but it actually goes up to 6.2 potentially billion dollars trillion dollars. So you're talking about 6.2 trillion-dollar bill. Nothing like that. And this will deliver urgently needed relief to our nation's families, workers, and businesses. And that's what this is all about.





Remarks by President Trump at Signing of H.R.748, The CARES Act The White House (archives.gov)

---

We needed a big spending package in March of 2020. It seemed to me like the spending kept going even into and after the economy reopened. It also seemed like JPow was still pumping the market after Biden was elected and didn't stop until a few months after Biden reappointed him. The money printer went brrrrrrrrrr for a long time, well past everything shutting down.

BearHunter said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Most striking point is he took office in Jan 2021 with 1.5% inflation. The rest speaks for its' "transitory" self.

Gas prices strikingly similar.

Listen to the Big Guy and he's bringing everything down. Yup

---

Of course, the Orange Buffoon had nothing to do with signing the biggest stimulus (CARES) package in history and a Fed Chairman that he appointed sending M2 to an unprecedented +40% increase and thinking that inflation was just transitory.

By the time Powell pulled his head out of his arse, inflation was already running at 7% in NOVEMBER 2021.

Those are FACTS.

Please tell me you arent this gullible.

---

Trump signed off on the package after he expressed displeasure with the spending outlined in the omnibus and to avoid government shutdown. Unemployment benefits were also expiring for millions of Americans as the bill went unsigned. Thank the Democrats for the large package, bro, Nancy probably didn't even know what was in it.

---

And then Biden put $4 Trillion, or $5 Trillion more in new deficit pork spending on top of that existing dungpile. "Never let an emergency go to waste."

Biden signed the Paris Accord, canceled key energy
pipelines, etc. The market hates uncertainty, and Biden / Obama / Hillary added bucketloads. Nitrogen prices soared, along with energy, causing food prices to skyrocket. We went from a CO2 economy solving the longtime boogeyman of world hunger, to food insecurity for over 100 million in just 2 years.

Then the arrogant intellectuals in Europe shut down even more nuclear power plants, making things worse worldwide. Then Biden / Obama / Hillary & NATO start war with Russia.

(A gentleman from Spain told me the Greenies also were outted in Europe - found taking bribes from Putin sources to reduce / end nuclear power. I have been unable to find documentation for such activity in my brief online search.)

DiabloWags said:

---

Sadly, you're wrong and you dont even know why you're wrong.

We are pumping more oil domestically than we have in many moons, but you just dont want to hear that.
We've been down this road before and you dont care.
You are unable to accept facts.

FACT: Crude Oil Production hit a 3 YEAR HIGH in March as output rose to 12.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY.

Your "narrative" about Biden is totally false.
Yet, you keep repeating it as if it's true.

US crude March output hits 3-yr high as Texas production grows -EIA | Nasdaq

---

Well, some smarts is no excuse for such behavior. Trump is an Orange Buffoon (may agree, but such isn't pretty). Powell with his head in his arse, and I am gullible. No need to call you any names at all. Your behavior speaks you well. No need to discuss with you as one must use "your facts" and be subjected to your childish name calling with those who disagree. Adios, and have a nice life.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Sadly, you're wrong and you dont even know why you're wrong.

We are pumping more oil domestically than we have in many moons, but you just dont want to hear that.
We've been down this road before and you dont care.
You are unable to accept facts.

FACT: Crude Oil Production hit a 3 YEAR HIGH in March as output rose to 12.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY.

Your "narrative" about Biden is totally false.
Yet, you keep repeating it as if it's true.

US crude March output hits 3-yr high as Texas production grows -EIA | Nasdaq

---

Well, some smarts is no excuse for such behavior. Trump is an Orange Buffoon (may agree, but such isn't pretty). Powell with his head in his arse, and I am gullible. No need to call you any names at all. Your behavior speaks you well. No need to discuss with you as one must use "your facts" and be subjected to your childish name calling with those who disagree. Adios, and have a nice life.

---

As someone that has repeatedly ignored the facts surrounding domestic crude oil production on this forum, you're quite WELCOME!

Your perpetuation of a false narrative says a lot about "who" you are.

It is quite remarkable where we stand today:
May inflation 4.0% yoy
Unemployment rate 3.7%
GDPNow forecast for Q2 2023 is 2.3%

Of course, the corporate news media does not report good news when Democrats are President. The headline on CNN.com right now:

Quote:

---

Grocery prices are rising in America again

---

dajo9 said:

---

Of course, the corporate news media does not report good news when Democrats are President. The headline on CNN.com right now:

Quote:

---

Grocery prices are rising in America again

---

---

Probably because May 2022 was record inflation of 8.6% from 2021. We are up another 4% from that. I do agree that it is much better than being up another 8.6%.

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Of course, the corporate news media does not report good news when Democrats are President. The headline on CNN.com right now:

Quote:

---

Grocery prices are rising in America again

---

---

Probably because May 2022 was record inflation of 8.6% from 2021. We are up another 4% from that. I do agree that it is much better than being up another 8.6%.

---

If you think that's bad, you should compare to 1958. Devestating.

For the Trumptards who believe that Biden's "Green New Deal" slashed domestic crude oil production.
As of March, we are at a 3 YEAR HIGH

12.4 mbpd vs 11.9 mbpd one year ago.




U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels) (eia.gov)

This Week In Petroleum Crude Oil Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

#1 BI name caller?