Since shelter is really a lagging number (12 month leases means only ~8% of rentals will re-price any month) I assumed CPI would remain inflated longer than we would see actual inflation. Quite interesting that we are already seeing this much of a reduction.
US Inflation - it could be worse
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Last: 10 mo ago by movielover
dimitrig said:
Not to mention that the Southern California Gas Company sent a letter which said to expect the next bill to be DOUBLE the usual price. I thought utilities had long term contracts locked in such that they aren't buying on the spot market.
Demand is up big and inventories have been about 33% below the five year average. Nat gas production in CA is about half of what it was a decade ago. Norcal depends on Canadian exports and SoCal depends on flows out of the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Permian supplies were crimped back in August of 2021 when a 30" Kinder Morgan pipeline EXPLODED in the Arizona desert. This pileline should reopen by Spring.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Not to mention that the Southern California Gas Company sent a letter which said to expect the next bill to be DOUBLE the usual price. I thought utilities had long term contracts locked in such that they aren't buying on the spot market.
Demand is up big and inventories have been about 33% below the five year average. Nat gas production in CA is about half of what it was a decade ago. Norcal depends on Canadian exports and SoCal depends on flows out of the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Permian supplies were crimped back in August of 2021 when a 30" Kinder Morgan pipeline EXPLODED in the Arizona desert. This pileline should reopen by Spring.
That maybe all true, but I thought utilities keep prices stable by negotiating long-term contracts except when electricity was deregulated and Enron gamed the markets. If the price went up then the suppliers take a loss and if the price goes down they make a big profit. I do not expect utilities to suddenly increase rates on short notice. In fact, don't they need permission from the CPUC to raise rates?
dimitrig said:DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Not to mention that the Southern California Gas Company sent a letter which said to expect the next bill to be DOUBLE the usual price. I thought utilities had long term contracts locked in such that they aren't buying on the spot market.
Demand is up big and inventories have been about 33% below the five year average. Nat gas production in CA is about half of what it was a decade ago. Norcal depends on Canadian exports and SoCal depends on flows out of the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Permian supplies were crimped back in August of 2021 when a 30" Kinder Morgan pipeline EXPLODED in the Arizona desert. This pileline should reopen by Spring.
That maybe all true, but I thought utilities keep prices stable by negotiating long-term contracts except when electricity was deregulated and Enron gamed the markets. If the price went up then the suppliers take a loss and if the price goes down they make a big profit. I do not expect utilities to suddenly increase rates on short notice. In fact, don't they need permission from the CPUC to raise rates?
Long term contracts eventually expire too and prices get reset at the new level.
American Vermin
My old neighbor from 375 South End Avenue in Battery Park City.
We were both members of the COMEX in #4 WTC.
Gary in Silver. Me in Gold.
1986
He had to leave the trading floor after developing nodes on his vocal chords.
His doctor wouldnt burn them off, unless he promised to leave the floor.
(you wont find that in any Google search)
He got a job at J.Aron (the metals division of Goldman) and he worked his way up.
He had such a bad case of dyslexia in grade school, that one of his teacher's told his parents that Gary
would be lucky to become a truck driver. He became the COO of Goldman and took over as CEO when Lloyd Blankfein came down with cancer. He and his wife Lisa are life long democrats and very generous philanthropists in NYC.
He thinks that the U.S. has weathered the storm.
Gary Cohn on recession fears: 'We've weathered the storm in the United States' (yahoo.com)
We were both members of the COMEX in #4 WTC.
Gary in Silver. Me in Gold.
1986
He had to leave the trading floor after developing nodes on his vocal chords.
His doctor wouldnt burn them off, unless he promised to leave the floor.
(you wont find that in any Google search)
He got a job at J.Aron (the metals division of Goldman) and he worked his way up.
He had such a bad case of dyslexia in grade school, that one of his teacher's told his parents that Gary
would be lucky to become a truck driver. He became the COO of Goldman and took over as CEO when Lloyd Blankfein came down with cancer. He and his wife Lisa are life long democrats and very generous philanthropists in NYC.
He thinks that the U.S. has weathered the storm.
Gary Cohn on recession fears: 'We've weathered the storm in the United States' (yahoo.com)
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Since when has the WEF become so prominent in the financial world?
movielover said:
Since when has the WEF become so prominent in the financial world?
Since conservatives needed a new enemy to hate. Kind of like ACORN.
American Vermin
dajo9 said:movielover said:
Since when has the WEF become so prominent in the financial world?
Since conservatives needed a new enemy to hate. Kind of like ACORN.
ACORN wasn't self describing themselves as 'elites' and having such influence over world leaders.
Klaus Schwab? Germany, with a declining population, immigrant problems, an energy disaster and industry fleeing. What a model.
I guess you prefer the annual global central banking conference and economic symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING every August.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Your meme would be more effective if the guy on the left didn't look like he spent the last 20 years abusing every drug he could find. Dark Biden on the right is a more appealing image.MinotStateBeav said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
Why are you posting UK inflation rates to a US inflation thread?movielover said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
He looks like that because the government has been transferring his wealth to rich people who don't need more.Eastern Oregon Bear said:Your meme would be more effective if the guy on the left didn't look like he spent the last 20 years abusing every drug he could find.MinotStateBeav said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Why are you posting UK inflation rates to a US inflation thread?movielover said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
Trying to make the argument that Biden has nothing to do with inflation?
Apathetic Bear said:He looks like that because the government has been transferring his wealth to rich people who don't need more.Eastern Oregon Bear said:Your meme would be more effective if the guy on the left didn't look like he spent the last 20 years abusing every drug he could find.MinotStateBeav said:
Wrong. Capitalism has been doing that.
American Vermin
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Why are you posting UK inflation rates to a US inflation thread?movielover said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
Because he blames UK inflation on Biden.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Why are you posting UK inflation rates to a US inflation thread?movielover said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
Because we are brother nations and enacted similar economic policies: big lockdown spending and 'Green New Deal' / 'Great Reset' / WEF policies.
movielover said:Eastern Oregon Bear said:Why are you posting UK inflation rates to a US inflation thread?movielover said:
UK inflation: Food price inflation hit 16.8% in December, with overall CPI inflation falling to 10.5%.
Because we are brother nations and enacted similar economic policies: big lockdown spending and 'Green New Deal' / 'Great Reset' / WEF policies.
You're terribly myopic.
One "size" fits all.
Comparing the USA to the UK is terribly short-sided.
Its not even worth my time pointing out why.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dimitrig said:DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Not to mention that the Southern California Gas Company sent a letter which said to expect the next bill to be DOUBLE the usual price. I thought utilities had long term contracts locked in such that they aren't buying on the spot market.
Demand is up big and inventories have been about 33% below the five year average. Nat gas production in CA is about half of what it was a decade ago. Norcal depends on Canadian exports and SoCal depends on flows out of the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Permian supplies were crimped back in August of 2021 when a 30" Kinder Morgan pipeline EXPLODED in the Arizona desert. This pileline should reopen by Spring.
That maybe all true, but I thought utilities keep prices stable by negotiating long-term contracts except when electricity was deregulated and Enron gamed the markets. If the price went up then the suppliers take a loss and if the price goes down they make a big profit. I do not expect utilities to suddenly increase rates on short notice. In fact, don't they need permission from the CPUC to raise rates?
PG&E has to source Natural Gas from producers.
Since demand here on the West Coast is up 24% and supply is down, market rates have soared.
They're paying "market" rates for the gas.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
The KPIX news this morning showed a homeowner from Martinez and how diligent she was at trying to conserve energy in her home. Even had the thermostat no higher than 66. Brrrrrrrrrrr!
Her bill this last month literally doubled from $193 to $380.
Her bill this last month literally doubled from $193 to $380.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:DiabloWags said:dimitrig said:
Not to mention that the Southern California Gas Company sent a letter which said to expect the next bill to be DOUBLE the usual price. I thought utilities had long term contracts locked in such that they aren't buying on the spot market.
Demand is up big and inventories have been about 33% below the five year average. Nat gas production in CA is about half of what it was a decade ago. Norcal depends on Canadian exports and SoCal depends on flows out of the Permian Basin in West Texas.
Permian supplies were crimped back in August of 2021 when a 30" Kinder Morgan pipeline EXPLODED in the Arizona desert. This pileline should reopen by Spring.
That maybe all true, but I thought utilities keep prices stable by negotiating long-term contracts except when electricity was deregulated and Enron gamed the markets. If the price went up then the suppliers take a loss and if the price goes down they make a big profit. I do not expect utilities to suddenly increase rates on short notice. In fact, don't they need permission from the CPUC to raise rates?
PG&E has to source Natural Gas from producers.
Since demand here on the West Coast is up 24% and supply is down, market rates have soared.
They're paying "market" rates for the gas.
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
movielover said:DiabloWags said:
PG&E has to source Natural Gas from producers.
Since demand here on the West Coast is up 24% and supply is down, market rates have soared.
They're paying "market" rates for the gas.
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
Once again, you are terribly ignorant and misinformed about a basic topic.
Natural Gas prices have plummeted and analysts are warning producers that the price of their gas is close to zero if normal production rates continue in the Permian Basin.
Permian's December Price Plunge is a Warning for 2023 | Hart Energy
But there's a pipeline out of the Permian Basin that transports NG to California that has been damaged and shut-down and wont begin to be put back into operation until this Spring.
I dont know what you do for a living, but it must not involve much intelligence or cognitive skills.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags said:movielover said:DiabloWags said:
PG&E has to source Natural Gas from producers.
Since demand here on the West Coast is up 24% and supply is down, market rates have soared.
They're paying "market" rates for the gas.
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
Once again, you are terribly ignorant and misinformed about a basic topic.
Natural Gas prices have plummeted and analysts are warning producers that the price of their gas is close to zero if normal production rates continue in the Permian Basin.
Permian's December Price Plunge is a Warning for 2023 | Hart Energy
But there's a pipeline out of the Permian Basin that transports NG to California that has been damaged and shut-down and wont begin to be put back into operation until this Spring.
I dont know what you do for a living, but it must not involve much intelligence or cognitive skills.
Does stuff like this cause electricity to cost more?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailynews.com/2019/02/12/los-angeles-to-close-3-power-plants-in-aggressive-move-toward-green-energy/amp/
Perfect Storm Fuels Massive Natural Gas Price Spikes on West Coast; Northern California Hits $55/MMBtu - Natural Gas Intelligence
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
The Pacific Northwest exports hydroelectric power to the Golden State but cold and dry weather in November and December resulted in Oregon and Washington sending fewer megawatts of power to California. That left California more reliant on power plants fueled by natural gas.
"Dry and cold means you don't have the hydro that you had last year and cold means you had higher demand and the Northwest kept everything every megawatt at home and didn't send it down" to California, Richter said.
What's behind Southern California's soaring natural gas bills? - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
"Dry and cold means you don't have the hydro that you had last year and cold means you had higher demand and the Northwest kept everything every megawatt at home and didn't send it down" to California, Richter said.
What's behind Southern California's soaring natural gas bills? - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags said:
The KPIX news this morning showed a homeowner from Martinez and how diligent she was at trying to conserve energy in her home. Even had the thermostat no higher than 66. Brrrrrrrrrrr!
Her bill this last month literally doubled from $193 to $380.
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
Newsom and Democrats only extended Diablo Canyon five years. Ridiculous.
movielover said:
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
Newsom and Democrats only extended Diablo Canyon five years. Ridiculous.
I've observed that tou continue to suffer from very poor reading comprehension.
And your continued claim\ that the 2020 Election was "rigged" is delusional.
Not only would I not let you mow my lawn . . . I wouldnt let you wash my car.
I think I'll put you back on ignore.
Happy New Year!
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
US Existing Home Sales decrease - largest ever annual decline🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/J4LGWGRYxS
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) January 20, 2023
Good Morning Everyone! Layoffs announced YTD:
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 20, 2023
- Google: 12,000 (6% of workforce)
- Microsoft: 10,000 (5%)
- Salesforce: 8,000 (10%)
- Amazon: 8,000 (2%)
38,815 tech workers have been laid off in 2023 pic.twitter.com/dN1RCD8Phe
movielover said:Good Morning Everyone! Layoffs announced YTD:
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 20, 2023
- Google: 12,000 (6% of workforce)
- Microsoft: 10,000 (5%)
- Salesforce: 8,000 (10%)
- Amazon: 8,000 (2%)
38,815 tech workers have been laid off in 2023 pic.twitter.com/dN1RCD8Phe
Don't I know it. I'm one of them.
movielover said:US Existing Home Sales decrease - largest ever annual decline🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/J4LGWGRYxS
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) January 20, 2023
Gee, I wonder why?
Let's see…
All time historical low interest rates finally revert to mean (or something more "normal", though still low.
Quick increase in monthly cost means buyers suddenly take a pause.
Entirely expected and reasonable.
movielover said:DiabloWags said:
The KPIX news this morning showed a homeowner from Martinez and how diligent she was at trying to conserve energy in her home. Even had the thermostat no higher than 66. Brrrrrrrrrrr!
Her bill this last month literally doubled from $193 to $380.
Biden / Obama / WEF policies.
Newsom and Democrats only extended Diablo Canyon five years. Ridiculous.
Wrong.
What economics/markets experience do you have?
Seriously.
I'm guessing NONE ZERO and ZIPPO.
AKA NADA!!
ZILCH. You've got Nothing!
Sorry, amigo.
You're a good seed!
You're a good seed!
concordtom said:
Sorry, amigo.
You're a good seed!
The severance package is good enough that I'm basically taking a month off before really starting a serious job search (plus, for obvious reasons the market is going to suck right now). Kind of an unexpected, forced vacation for me while I figure out the next step.
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