I may end up being very wrong about this, but I think Boston is in a bit more trouble then the talking heads realize. Switching Draymond to Jaylen and getting GP2 back sort of unlocked the Warriors defense, and its unclear to me whether Boston has a viable counter.
This is basically what the Dubs are doing. They have either Wiggin/GP2 /Draymond on Tatum/Brown at all times. And when all three are on the court, they have GP2 on White, which is basically death for the Boston offense.
The Boston offense isn't very diverse. They strictly rely on Tatum/Brown to drive and kick OR play 1 on 1 and shoot contested jumpers. They have no other playmakers (besides maybe White, but you aren't going to get beat by White if you put some defensive focus on him and I'm more than comfortable with Steph on a hobbled Smart).
On drives, the Warriors are playing much more aggressively. First, on the drive, the primary defender will force Tatum/Brown one direction (never give the middle of the key) this creates a strong side and weak side, which makes help easier. Then on the drive, the strong side help wing defender will either stab at the ball and recover quickly to their man OR help late but much more aggressively. If the driver continues to drive, they will be met by the dunker spot help defender who will rotate over (the amount of help will depend on how closely the main defender can stay with the driver). The weakside corner defender will rotate to the dunker spot and then the weakside wing defender will try to cover both the weakside corner shooter and weakside wing shooter. That weakside wing defender will then feint and try to confuse the driver as to which shooter he is going to cover. (sorry this would be much easier with pictures).
So in real time, this is why this defense is so difficult. Lets say Brown drives, Wiggins forces him left. As he drives, GP2 (who is guarding white on the wing) will reach in for the steal. If Brown gets by that, he's then met by Looney in the paint, with Wiggins still on his hip harassing him. Brown will then have to decide whether to shoot or pass to the dunker spot (if its open enough) or kick out to the weakside. But the weakside help defender is feinting and isn't revealing which shooter he's going to cover. So Brown, in a split second, has to decide whether to shoot or pass and where the open shooter is, all the while Wiggins and other help defenders are aggressively swiping at the ball (all of this while driving 100 miles an hour) And other help defenders are feinting one way and another, not revealing where they are going, making it difficult to find who is actually open. Its not easy.
The Warriors also have variations to this, as sometimes the help will come late, sometimes early and sometimes from different places, its a lot to process in a very short time span.
The key to all of this is Wiggins/Draymond/GP2. They are all elite perimeter defenders (GP2 is arguably the best point of attack perimeter defender in the game - there is data to back that up). This defense doesn't work if Brown/Tatum can just blow by their defender, because then there needs to be overhelp which leaves shooters much more open. This is what was happening in game 1. But if the main defender can stay on the drivers' hip and harass them, its extremely difficult to consistently make the correct reads.
So with Brown now being neutralized, there are less blow bys, thus the help defenders can stick on their man more closely allowing way less open threes.
My hypothesis is that Boston doesn't have elite playmakers or elite offensive players (no one at the caliber of a Jokic or Luka who would be much better suited to make split second decisions). I don't think Tatum and especially Brown are going to be able to consistently drive and find the open shooter (I think we all know Brown well enough to know that he has trouble making reads). Not with so many good defenders harassing them. Thus I think they will be relegated to a lot of 1 on 1 play, and taking contested jumpers. Which negates the impact of the role players, who I believe can only be effective if they have semi open looks created by drive and kick.
Thus, I think it will come down to this. Which team has a better chance of creating consistent offense? Will it be Brown/Tatum playing 1 on 1 against three elite defenders. Or will it be the Curry high PnR (which has historically been the most efficient play in basketball).
I may be proven wrong. Maybe Tatum is indeed a superstar. Maybe he will consistently make the correct reads and consistently make contested jumpers. We will see. I'm betting on Curry though, who I believe has a much better ability of opening up space for his teammates.
