calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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helltopay1 said:

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You will notice ( for those of you who don't wear blinders) that the MSM rarely mentions inflation. They are covering for Biden, of course. When a recession hits ( two consecutive quarters of zero growth) it will not be mentioned by the MSM. Have to minimize the November losses, don't you see?????

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This is hilarious. All the MSM talks about economically is inflation. They never talk about record job growth or deficit reduction or large GDP gains. Just inflation.

When Obama was President, the MSM only talked about a slow recovery despite the fact Obama's 2nd term saw strong economic growth and set trendlines that would become record-breaking. The MSM narrative only changed the day Trump became President and then the MSM only talked about economic strength.

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I guess all those "business" and "economic" classes never thought that the Fed is always balancing unemployment with inflation. When fiscal and monetary policies have resulted in 1.6 open positions for each unemployed person, that is not something to be proud of. Flooding the market with cash and having fiscal policies to flood demand when supply is limited is not a great accomplishment. People like you never understand that harm that inflation does to the poor and the inevitable recession that results from runaway inflation.

But you are the expert who called a cap of equity in 2017 and celebrated that inflation was transitory. What do I know.

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You can't get over the fact I made a killing buying long term U.S. Treasuries in 2017 and then rolling them into equities at the nadir of the Covid collapse in 2020. Beat out the buy-and-hold standard as I outlined on these boards with trade dates and assets traded.

Inflation is far better than economic collapse. Trump and Biden both knew that and acted accordingly. Only a fool would have argued against fiscal policy expansion during Covid. I guess that's you. The Fed, as usual, put too much money in the economy, waited too long to react, and now will retract too strongly. You'll continue to make up things about how people you don't like view the Fed.

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Sure you did. I mean you have proven yourself the oracle of BI with your pinpoint accurate predictions. How could we doubt that you are not some financial genius who outsmarts Wall Street and are secretly a billionaire.

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I only posted the trades here in real time, lol

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Sure you did. Should we revive that embarrassing thread for you? I don't think you come across the way you think you do here, but that may just be me.

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Revive it. You'll find my trades in there. I'd rather make a successful trade than be popular.

dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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calbear93 said:

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dajo9 said:

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helltopay1 said:

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You will notice ( for those of you who don't wear blinders) that the MSM rarely mentions inflation. They are covering for Biden, of course. When a recession hits ( two consecutive quarters of zero growth) it will not be mentioned by the MSM. Have to minimize the November losses, don't you see?????

---

This is hilarious. All the MSM talks about economically is inflation. They never talk about record job growth or deficit reduction or large GDP gains. Just inflation.

When Obama was President, the MSM only talked about a slow recovery despite the fact Obama's 2nd term saw strong economic growth and set trendlines that would become record-breaking. The MSM narrative only changed the day Trump became President and then the MSM only talked about economic strength.

---

I guess all those "business" and "economic" classes never thought that the Fed is always balancing unemployment with inflation. When fiscal and monetary policies have resulted in 1.6 open positions for each unemployed person, that is not something to be proud of. Flooding the market with cash and having fiscal policies to flood demand when supply is limited is not a great accomplishment. People like you never understand that harm that inflation does to the poor and the inevitable recession that results from runaway inflation.

But you are the expert who called a cap of equity in 2017 and celebrated that inflation was transitory. What do I know.

---

You can't get over the fact I made a killing buying long term U.S. Treasuries in 2017 and then rolling them into equities at the nadir of the Covid collapse in 2020. Beat out the buy-and-hold standard as I outlined on these boards with trade dates and assets traded.

Inflation is far better than economic collapse. Trump and Biden both knew that and acted accordingly. Only a fool would have argued against fiscal policy expansion during Covid. I guess that's you. The Fed, as usual, put too much money in the economy, waited too long to react, and now will retract too strongly. You'll continue to make up things about how people you don't like view the Fed.

---

Sure you did. I mean you have proven yourself the oracle of BI with your pinpoint accurate predictions. How could we doubt that you are not some financial genius who outsmarts Wall Street and are secretly a billionaire.

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I only posted the trades here in real time, lol

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Sure you did. Should we revive that embarrassing thread for you? I don't think you come across the way you think you do here, but that may just be me.

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Revive it. You'll find my trades in there. I'd rather make a successful trade than be popular.

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Too bad you are neither.

wifeisafurd said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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going4roses said:

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How does this affect the avg joe ?

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I don't think this is a bad question. I think the answer is a bit less clear because there are a lot of different average joe's. For a regular person who has seen wage increases, they may be just fine because it could more than offset the change in prices they are facing.

The basket of goods that everyone purchases can be quite different and the measures of inflation used by the Fed and government don't really match up that well to individual purchasing. The Fed uses the PCE (article here) and the government uses CPI which is less dynamic and tends to overstate inflation.

I think the biggest concern for the average joe isn't that prices are rising but that rising prices are going to cause the Fed to whammy our economy in order to prevent rising prices to get out of control. When the Fed whammies our economy it will increase unemployment which means many average joe's are going to lose their jobs.

Happy to hear other people's takes. DW - what did I get wrong?

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Maybe you are thinking about the average Joe with a business or econ degree? Most folks don't even know what the FED does, no less the FED's track record in fighting inflation, or hard versus soft landings. I think Tom is much closer, most average Joe's see prices going up and unless they are the fortunate few whose income is increasing faster, blame the government, because we as a society and as a nation habitually criticize and blame the government for everything that goes wrong.

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And apparently, even fewer people have figured out who sets the prices for gasoline.

cbbass1 said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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going4roses said:

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How does this affect the avg joe ?

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I don't think this is a bad question. I think the answer is a bit less clear because there are a lot of different average joe's. For a regular person who has seen wage increases, they may be just fine because it could more than offset the change in prices they are facing.

The basket of goods that everyone purchases can be quite different and the measures of inflation used by the Fed and government don't really match up that well to individual purchasing. The Fed uses the PCE (article here) and the government uses CPI which is less dynamic and tends to overstate inflation.

I think the biggest concern for the average joe isn't that prices are rising but that rising prices are going to cause the Fed to whammy our economy in order to prevent rising prices to get out of control. When the Fed whammies our economy it will increase unemployment which means many average joe's are going to lose their jobs.

Happy to hear other people's takes. DW - what did I get wrong?

---

Maybe you are thinking about the average Joe with a business or econ degree? Most folks don't even know what the FED does, no less the FED's track record in fighting inflation, or hard versus soft landings. I think Tom is much closer, most average Joe's see prices going up and unless they are the fortunate few whose income is increasing faster, blame the government, because we as a society and as a nation habitually criticize and blame the government for everything that goes wrong.

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And apparently, even fewer people have figured out who sets the prices for gasoline.

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Gotta be Sleepy JOE.
I hear that he sets mortgage rates too!

DiabloWags said:

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cbbass1 said:

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And apparently, even fewer people have figured out who sets the prices for gasoline.

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Gotta be Sleepy JOE.
I hear that he sets mortgage rates too!

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Joe Biden’s "plan" to fight inflation: make no sense pic.twitter.com/vCYQ2SbNg2

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 10, 2022

No one understands what he's saying. White House reporters stopped taking notes a long time ago. The scandal is the non-scandal.

And inflation just got worse again. Spending, spending, spending prime.

6.2% core rate.

Hotter than all 67 estimates by economists.
That's a +0.6% increase in April from the prior month, faster than the +0.3% increase in March.

Looking at the components, inflation has now spread into services and is broad based now.
ie.) It's no longer just a supply-chain issue as represented by double-digit increases in the PPI.

Those +5.5% wage gains just went up in smoke again and something that people arent really talking about is how consumer credit increased $50 Billion (reported last Friday) as consumers are dipping into charge cards to pay for increased food and fuel. That's clearly problematic.

The FED (who I criticized months ago for being terribly late to the "game") needs to stop trying to telegraph what theyre doing or wont be doing. - - - For example, Powell cant come out and say that a 75 basis point rate hike is "off the table". He should also stop sharing with market participants what he believes the "neutral" level of rates are (2 - 3%). If he continues to play that game and sugarcoat his outlook, he's going to continue to lose more and more credibility and the markets will call him to the mat every single time.

The Fed needs to stop playing coy and be brutally honest.
If their messaging leads market participants to underestimate future tightening, that will leave financial conditions looser now, requiring the Fed to do more of the work through short-term rates.

Inflationary expectations have now become embedded in the economy.
CPI and Core CPI displayed below:
8.3% and 6.2%

BearForce2 said:

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Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War

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You're going back on my IGNORE list.

concordtom said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War

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You're going back on my IGNORE list.

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Don't replace your former conservative echo chamber with a liberal echo chamber. You both talk in absolutes as if the other party is radical.

concordtom said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War

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You're going back on my IGNORE list.

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I would ignore the politicians who said those things as well.

DiabloWags said:

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The Democratic Party is on the verge of totally losing the Hispanic voter.

In polls, their #1 concern is INFLATION.

They dont care about immigration or Ukraine.
They care about the cost of living skyrocketing.

And while they dont necessarily blame the Biden Administration for the surge in fuel, food, and consumer goods prices, not too mention rent/housing. . . they dont feel very confident that the Biden Administration knows how to handle it.

"A Quinnipiac University Poll published April 13th found that just 26% of Hispanic voters approved of Biden's job performance."

In Arizona and Colorado, Latino voters warn Democrats over inflation (nbcnews.com)

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It's not just the inflation issue itself. It's delivering (or not) on promises, and messaging.

The GOP has invested in massive outreach to Hispanic voters via right-wing, Spanish-language radio. They're getting their message out (as misleading as it is), and they're having success with it.

In addition, the Dems haven't made the investment in reaching out to Hispanic voters (well, Bernie did in 2020, but the party didn't), took them for granted, AND didn't deliver on the promises that they made (like $15/hr minimum wage, getting refugees out of cages & reuniting families at the border, family leave, public option for health insurance, etc.)

oski003 said:

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concordtom said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War

---

You're going back on my IGNORE list.

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Don't replace your former conservative echo chamber with a liberal echo chamber. You both talk in absolutes as if the other party is radical.

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…when in reality, only one is.

Inflation = record profits for oil companies. This is not 1970s style inflation.

Saudi Aramco posted a record quarterly profit as the world’s most valuable company benefits from surging oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/jIDdUn2cOx

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) May 15, 2022

The Saudi's have another 2.5 to 3 million barrels of production capacity and they dont care to use it.
Their budget needs oil > $85 to balance their budget.

Same with the Russians, who became a member of OPEC+ in 2016.

For the seventh consecutive day, gas prices hit a record high. According to AAA, the average for a gallon of regular gas reached an all-time high of $4.48 nationwide on Monday after increasing by 1 cent overnight, AAA said.

"How does raising taxes on corporations lower the cost of gas, the cost of a used car, the cost of food for everyday Americans?"

KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: Climate change pic.twitter.com/7FlGznijZB

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 16, 2022

Elections have consequences.

BearForce2 said:

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For the seventh consecutive day, gas prices hit a record high. According to AAA, the average for a gallon of regular gas reached an all-time high of $4.48 nationwide on Monday after increasing by 1 cent overnight, AAA said.

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And WHO sets retail gasoline prices??

Oil prices are at about $110. The all time record is $180.

dajo9 said:

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Oil prices are at about $110. The all time record is $180.

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Nope.
The record high for WTI is $147.27 in July 2008.

cbbass1 said:

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BearForce2 said:

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For the seventh consecutive day, gas prices hit a record high. According to AAA, the average for a gallon of regular gas reached an all-time high of $4.48 nationwide on Monday after increasing by 1 cent overnight, AAA said.

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And WHO sets retail gasoline prices??

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Makes little difference to the average Joe on the street. How does he/she vote when feeling pain. Just sayin'

cbbass1 said:

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And WHO sets retail gasoline prices??

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It doesnt matter who sets retail gas prices.
It's who has pricing power for the underlying commodity, crude oil.
That would be OPEC+ who produces 40% the world's crude oil production and accounts for 60% of petroleum traded globally. They're the 800 lb. Gorilla in the room.

But most average Joe's are economically illiterate.
They think that the President of the United States sets gas prices, mortgage rates, etc.
Just ask the typical Trumpanzee.

DiabloWags said:

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cbbass1 said:

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And WHO sets retail gasoline prices??

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It doesnt matter who sets retail gas prices.
It's who has pricing power for the underlying commodity, crude oil.
That would be OPEC+ who produces 40% the world's crude oil production and accounts for 60% of petroleum traded globally. They're the 800 lb. Gorilla in the room.

But most average Joe's are economically illiterate.
They think that the President of the United States sets gas prices, mortgage rates, etc.
Just ask the typical Trumpanzee.

---

As has been posted a few times:

Love the latest from Elon Musk: "The President of the US is whoever controls the teleprompter". He just keeps getting better.

OdontoBear66 said:

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Love the latest from Elon Musk: "The President of the US is whoever controls the teleprompter". He just keeps getting better.

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

Yup.
$37 a share sure isnt $54.
Mr. Market doesnt seem to believe Musk anymore.
He must be having teleprompter issues.

Unit2Sucks said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Love the latest from Elon Musk: "The President of the US is whoever controls the teleprompter". He just keeps getting better.

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

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Makes it even better from my glance.

OdontoBear66 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

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Makes it even better from my glance.

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Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

DiabloWags said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

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Makes it even better from my glance.

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Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

---

Very true, but when he started playing games with the company twas time to out for safety. Downside potential became greater than upside winnings.

I just marvel at all the people I would suspect would be all for shutting down woke and increasing free speech as in the 60s are totally against.

OdontoBear66 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

---

Makes it even better from my glance.

---

Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

---

Very true, but when he started playing games with the company twas time to out for safety. Downside potential became greater than upside winnings.

I just marvel at all the people I would suspect would be all for shutting down woke and increasing free speech as in the 60s are totally against.

---

You do realize that Musk has a "binding" agreement to purchase Twitter, right?
If he bows out it's gonna cost him a $1.0 Billion break up fee.
That's the downside of playing "games".

For some reason, he's been sounding more like "the Dog ate my homework" with his excuse about Spam.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Oil prices are at about $110. The all time record is $180.

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Nope.
The record high for WTI is $147.27 in July 2008.

---

Yes, $180 is the inflation adjusted number. Either way, oil prices have been much higher so why is gas so high? Pricing power and a robust consumer.

DiabloWags said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

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Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

---

Makes it even better from my glance.

---

Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

---

Very true, but when he started playing games with the company twas time to out for safety. Downside potential became greater than upside winnings.

I just marvel at all the people I would suspect would be all for shutting down woke and increasing free speech as in the 60s are totally against.

---

You do realize that Musk has a "binding" agreement to purchase Twitter, right?
If he bows out it's gonna cost him a $1.0 Billion break up fee.
That's the downside of playing "games".

For some reason, he's been sounding more like "the Dog ate my homework" with his excuse about Spam.

---

Understand that as I think he does. Big difference he can afford it. You and I probably not. Being a contrarian and libertarian of sorts, I just love the zingers he is shooting across the bow. Sounds like a bunch of nervous nillies at Twitter. 90% plus of you know what persuasion. I'll take free speech whether it benefits moderates, conservatives or even liberals.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

---

Makes it even better from my glance.

---

Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

---

Very true, but when he started playing games with the company twas time to out for safety. Downside potential became greater than upside winnings.

I just marvel at all the people I would suspect would be all for shutting down woke and increasing free speech as in the 60s are totally against.

---

You do realize that Musk has a "binding" agreement to purchase Twitter, right?
If he bows out it's gonna cost him a $1.0 Billion break up fee.
That's the downside of playing "games".

For some reason, he's been sounding more like "the Dog ate my homework" with his excuse about Spam.

---

Understand that as I think he does. Big difference he can afford it. You and I probably not. Being a contrarian and libertarian of sorts, I just love the zingers he is shooting across the bow. Sounds like a bunch of nervous nillies at Twitter. 90% plus of you know what persuasion. I'll take free speech whether it benefits moderates, conservatives or even liberals.

---

You'll take free speech even if it benefits autocratic liars

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Twitter employees and stockholders may not agree.

---

Makes it even better from my glance.

---

Unless you're a TSLA shareholder.

---

Very true, but when he started playing games with the company twas time to out for safety. Downside potential became greater than upside winnings.

I just marvel at all the people I would suspect would be all for shutting down woke and increasing free speech as in the 60s are totally against.

---

You do realize that Musk has a "binding" agreement to purchase Twitter, right?
If he bows out it's gonna cost him a $1.0 Billion break up fee.
That's the downside of playing "games".

For some reason, he's been sounding more like "the Dog ate my homework" with his excuse about Spam.

---

Understand that as I think he does. Big difference he can afford it. You and I probably not. Being a contrarian and libertarian of sorts, I just love the zingers he is shooting across the bow. Sounds like a bunch of nervous nillies at Twitter. 90% plus of you know what persuasion. I'll take free speech whether it benefits moderates, conservatives or even liberals.

---

Elon Musk just now figured out that there are a lot of bots on the Internet?

He's just looking for an out.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

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Oil prices are at about $110. The all time record is $180.

---

Nope.
The record high for WTI is $147.27 in July 2008.

---

Yes, $180 is the inflation adjusted number. Either way, oil prices have been much higher so why is gas so high? Pricing power and a robust consumer.

---

Total oil demand in April: 97.4 mb/d
Total oil production in April: 98.1 mb/d


Total oil consumption forecast to average 99.6 mb/d for 2022.
Total oil production projected to be 99.7 mb/d in 2022.

That's a very tight market.

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

OPEC has capacity to produce additional crude.
But are not comfortable doing so.