US Inflation - it could be worse

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BearGoggles
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wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?
calbear93
How long do you want to ignore this user?
wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.
This is a very weird acquisition where Musk appears to be a Whit ekNight for some Director and engaged in a hostile takeover by others.

Here is the condition precedent termination provision:

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


Those are not unusual terms. I think what you have to realize is that, prior to Akorn, the Delaware courts had never previously found any situation to be great enough to cross the barrier of having a material adverse effect. Akron gives some leverage to buyers potentially to negotiate a better price because there is at least a slight risk because that was one case. But Akorn was a special case where was systemic non-compliance with FDA requirements that brought the financial results significantly lower (which had not been disclosed or made part of the disclosure schedule) and the stock price went down significantly over an extended period, that the court finally found the impact to be a material adverse effect.

This deal will close. I am 99% sure. The liability that will come with not closing on a merger with a public company is too significant, and the courts, short of something meeting all of the requirements of the Akorn case, will most likely not find material adverse effect.

The only ones who may make some money from this may be the arbitrage shops that are playing the spread between the merger price and the current trading price.

Akorn was such a seismic case relating to what all of us M&A lawyers thought about the MAE clause that there should be plenty of law firm summaries on that case, including discussion that this was the only time the Delaware courts allowed a deal to be terminated based on the MAE clause.

Here are some summaries by top firms:

https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2018/10/analyzing-akorn

https://www.mofo.com/resources/insights/181009-delaware-material-adverse-event.html


calbear93
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?
It's standard. The point is that an immaterial failure for a single bring-down rep at closing should not crater a deal. But the carve out eats up the entire closing condition since it is almost impossible to prove it had a material adverse effect based on the standards the Delaware court had previously set.

I know when I presented to boards before on progress on acquisitions, deal certainty was a crucial element as well as financing, reputation, etc. No board is going to go public with a deal to sell control of their company and recommend the shareholders approve if they had significant doubt that a deal may close. Imagine the destruction to their shareholder base, their employees, the customers, etc. Deals to acquire public companies are almost impossible to terminate absent anti-trust issues or lack of shareholder approval (which would get very expensive for the seller in having to pay the break-up fee) or much better deal that the Board has to take due to their fiduciary duties (but again will be very expensive break-up fee).
wifeisafurd
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BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?
Good question. As proviso, this is the complicated crap you get one you ask the former chair of the opinion committee of a 1,500 plus firm law firm to comment. One of three reasons I posted was that bolded language. I assumed that it modified the language before the parenthetical, which means you can have a MAE in terms of the given representation, but it is no harm, no foul if the breach is not also a MAE when considered on a Company wide basis. Assuming that is correct, and it may not be due to the order of the wording, that probably means that you can have a MAE having violated the 10B-5 language in Section 4.6 for incorrectly reporting the number of monetized users, but still not have a termination if you don't have sufficient materality to have a MAE on a Company wide basis. That is why I was willing to go down the path of discussing the MAE and materiality on an overall company basis, even though there is no MAE provision in the following:


"As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading."

But the answer is if the bolded language doesn't modify the language "without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein", then no MAE applies for Musk's claim of misrepresenting the number of monetized eyeballs; thus, then Unit 2's commentary would be wrong. But I don't think it is. Basically, when I try to interpret long sentence with paragraphs, I delete the paragraphs and see what it means. I'm also assuming that the violation of law representation is superseded by Section 4.6 in this case.

However this gets to the two other points, which are qualifications you see in legal opinions. The first is fraud, where the court is so pissed off about a misrepresentation, the words in the contract don't mean anything. And if the duplication of accounts means duplicating users meets the requisites for fraud, all bets off.

The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. (I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
calbear93
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wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?


The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. (I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
There is no post closing lawsuit after a deal closes to purchase a public company. Who are you going to sue? The public shareholders? Post closing lawsuits are more for private companies where sometimes you have an escrow account subject to a cap where the few shareholders put a portion of the purchase price in escrow. But there is never a post closing lawsuit by the buyer of a public company that was taken private through an acquisition.

That is why all of the diligence has to be conducted before you enter into an agreement to purchase a public company. There is really no recourse once you sign. When there is an auction (where there should be under the Revlon standard) or you are competing with a private equity firm that will just eat up the liability, good luck even getting access to good diligence without the default answer of - check our public filings and the competing buyers will have to submit their mark-up to the seller friendly merger agreement and, if one buyer brings too much deal uncertainty, they won't be invited to the next round.
Unit2Sucks
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Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
cbbass1
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BearForce2 said:

cbbass1 said:

BearForce2 said:

concordtom said:

oski003 said:

concordtom said:

BearForce2 said:

Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War
You're going back on my IGNORE list.

Don't replace your former conservative echo chamber with a liberal echo chamber. You both talk in absolutes as if the other party is radical.

…when in reality, only one is.

Ha! That's a good one.

But Dwight Eisenhower will think someone stole his line:
GOP Party Platform - 1956

Read it -- the mainstream of the GOP was to the economic Left of where Bernie Sanders is today.



The Dems moved to the far left. Just embrace it, don't be ashamed.
Biden, Pelosi, and the rest of the Dem establishment do what their corporate donors tell them and pay them to do. If that's your definition of "Left", then I don't think there's any hope of having a conversation.

Biden is no more to the "Left" than Mitt Romney. Just focus on what he actually does, not what he says.
BearGoggles
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Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Given that $1B is nothing to him, I think its a no lose proposition for Musk. Either he buys twitter (perhaps with a discount) or he pays $1B to destroy or cripple twitter.

dimitrig
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BearGoggles said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Given that $1B is nothing to him, I think its a no lose proposition for Musk. Either he buys twitter (perhaps with a discount) or he pays $1B to destroy or cripple twitter.

Buying Twitter could be a very big mistake.

Musk's ego is getting the better of his common sense.



BearGoggles
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calbear93 said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?
It's standard. The point is that an immaterial failure for a single bring-down rep at closing should not crater a deal. But the carve out eats up the entire closing condition since it is almost impossible to prove it had a material adverse effect based on the standards the Delaware court had previously set.

I know when I presented to boards before on progress on acquisitions, deal certainty was a crucial element as well as financing, reputation, etc. No board is going to go public with a deal to sell control of their company and recommend the shareholders approve if they had significant doubt that a deal may close. Imagine the destruction to their shareholder base, their employees, the customers, etc. Deals to acquire public companies are almost impossible to terminate absent anti-trust issues or lack of shareholder approval (which would get very expensive for the seller in having to pay the break-up fee) or much better deal that the Board has to take due to their fiduciary duties (but again will be very expensive break-up fee).
I knew the carve out was a potentially significant, but didn't realize how big until you explained the standards for MAE. Thanks for that.

Is there case law indicating that materially false SEC filings are or are not a MAE? From a non-expert view, it seems to me that at least in some cases (e.g., false/misleading/fraudulent financial statements), it might be. Not saying that the 5% issue here would rise to that level, but at some point . . . .?

Also, what about an independent breach of a separate provision/covenant in the agreement - in this case the Company's obligation to provide information. Is that a basis to terminate?
wifeisafurd
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Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Notwithstanding the focus on Delaware and MAE here, there is plenty of precedence for lawsuits that commonly allege that the directors of the target company breached their fiduciary duty to the shareholders that typically allege that the target company failed to disclose all material information. The plaintiff shareholders then move for a preliminary injunction to enjoin the shareholder vote and seek expedited discovery in connection with their motion. That puts the target company in limbo and expedites settlements.

Disclosure based lawsuits have taken a beating in the Delaware Chancery, and there are attempts at forum shopping bylaws by Delaware corps, but large shareholders have shifted their jurisdictional focus (or so I'm told) in states where the company conducts in business (in this case California), or casting their claims as violations of the federal securities laws and filing in federal court, notwithstanding the procedural hurdles of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which Musk could be signaling given the SEC focus of Musk on the apparent Twitter disclosure issues. That said, I suspect Musk is looking for a price adjustment, not to avoid the transaction and the break-up fee.
wifeisafurd
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calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?


The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. (I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
There is no post closing lawsuit after a deal closes to purchase a public company. Who are you going to sue? The public shareholders? Post closing lawsuits are more for private companies where sometimes you have an escrow account subject to a cap where the few shareholders put a portion of the purchase price in escrow. But there is never a post closing lawsuit by the buyer of a public company that was taken private through an acquisition.

That is why all of the diligence has to be conducted before you enter into an agreement to purchase a public company. There is really no recourse once you sign. When there is an auction (where there should be under the Revlon standard) or you are competing with a private equity firm that will just eat up the liability, good luck even getting access to good diligence without the default answer of - check our public filings and the competing buyers will have to submit their mark-up to the seller friendly merger agreement and, if one buyer brings too much deal uncertainty, they won't be invited to the next round.
Wait, I think you misread the portion of my comment that you chose to comment on. Let me try it this way, "opposite to closing the transaction, either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply." You can't sue the company you own for damages or the public shareholders who sold to you who also relied on the same information. And with fraud it is a recession type action. I know there are Delaware and MAE bias here, but you guys are misinterpreting what I'm saying. Let me refer you to the post above, somewhat ghost written by a securities litigator. Also, again, I think Musk intends to close the transaction assume the number of actual twitter eyeballs are remotely close to what is stated by the company. My guess is the leaking number of actual people on twitter has Musk's financial backers concerned.
calbear93
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wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?


The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. (I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
There is no post closing lawsuit after a deal closes to purchase a public company. Who are you going to sue? The public shareholders? Post closing lawsuits are more for private companies where sometimes you have an escrow account subject to a cap where the few shareholders put a portion of the purchase price in escrow. But there is never a post closing lawsuit by the buyer of a public company that was taken private through an acquisition.

That is why all of the diligence has to be conducted before you enter into an agreement to purchase a public company. There is really no recourse once you sign. When there is an auction (where there should be under the Revlon standard) or you are competing with a private equity firm that will just eat up the liability, good luck even getting access to good diligence without the default answer of - check our public filings and the competing buyers will have to submit their mark-up to the seller friendly merger agreement and, if one buyer brings too much deal uncertainty, they won't be invited to the next round.
Wait, I think you misread the portion of my comment that you chose to comment on. Let me try it this way, "opposite to closing the transaction, either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply." You can't sue the company you own for damages or the public shareholders who sold to you who also relied on the same information. And with fraud it is a recession type action. I know there are Delaware and MAE bias here, but you guys are misinterpreting what I'm saying. Let me refer you to the post above, somewhat ghost written by a securities litigator. Also, again, I think Musk intends to close the transaction assume the number of actual twitter eyeballs are remotely close to what is stated by the company. My guess is the leaking number of actual people on twitter has Musk's financial backers concerned.


Diligence materials is provided under such tight confidentiality obligation that the idea that the information provided can be used as a basis for a separate 10b-5 fraud on the market shareholder lawsuit is not in the realm of possibility. I don't even know how he is talking about these things directly (instead of having his banker leak anonymously to Bloomberg or wsj) other than buying himself more liability exposure. But I suspect this is the last acquisition he will attempt to do of a public company. No public board will ever again sign themselves up for this type of destruction. He should just resign to being an activist shareholder like Icahn in the future.
Unit2Sucks
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wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Notwithstanding the focus on Delaware and MAE here, there is plenty of precedence for lawsuits that commonly allege that the directors of the target company breached their fiduciary duty to the shareholders that typically allege that the target company failed to disclose all material information. The plaintiff shareholders then move for a preliminary injunction to enjoin the shareholder vote and seek expedited discovery in connection with their motion. That puts the target company in limbo and expedites settlements.

Disclosure based lawsuits have taken a beating in the Delaware Chancery, and there are attempts at forum shopping bylaws by Delaware corps, but large shareholders have shifted their jurisdictional focus (or so I'm told) in states where the company conducts in business (in this case California), or casting their claims as violations of the federal securities laws and filing in federal court, notwithstanding the procedural hurdles of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which Musk could be signaling given the SEC focus of Musk on the apparent Twitter disclosure issues. That said, I suspect Musk is looking for a price adjustment, not to avoid the transaction and the break-up fee.
I still think there is no chance the deal closes. He's told all of his co-investors and banks publicly that twitter's business is bad.

As for the lawsuit, if he breaks the deal and pays the $1B, I could see him suing Twitter. If he actually buys the company, he would be suing himself lol.

Like I said earlier, he's probably trying to weasel out of the full $1B fee. Maybe they'll negotiate but I suspect they sue him and away we go.

I don't read Twitter's public filings but I find it hilarious that the existence of spam/bots on twitter is this controversial - it's been known and discussed publicly for years.
calbear93
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Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Notwithstanding the focus on Delaware and MAE here, there is plenty of precedence for lawsuits that commonly allege that the directors of the target company breached their fiduciary duty to the shareholders that typically allege that the target company failed to disclose all material information. The plaintiff shareholders then move for a preliminary injunction to enjoin the shareholder vote and seek expedited discovery in connection with their motion. That puts the target company in limbo and expedites settlements.

Disclosure based lawsuits have taken a beating in the Delaware Chancery, and there are attempts at forum shopping bylaws by Delaware corps, but large shareholders have shifted their jurisdictional focus (or so I'm told) in states where the company conducts in business (in this case California), or casting their claims as violations of the federal securities laws and filing in federal court, notwithstanding the procedural hurdles of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which Musk could be signaling given the SEC focus of Musk on the apparent Twitter disclosure issues. That said, I suspect Musk is looking for a price adjustment, not to avoid the transaction and the break-up fee.
I still think there is no chance the deal closes. He's told all of his co-investors and banks publicly that twitter's business is bad.

As for the lawsuit, if he breaks the deal and pays the $1B, I could see him suing Twitter. If he actually buys the company, he would be suing himself lol.

Like I said earlier, he's probably trying to weasel out of the full $1B fee. Maybe they'll negotiate but I suspect they sue him and away we go.

I don't read Twitter's public filings but I find it hilarious that the existence of spam/bots on twitter is this controversial - it's been known and discussed publicly for years.


You may be right but it would be so illogical from a financial, liability and reputational perspective. I suppose if you are the richest person on earth, that may not matter. I used to be a Tesla investor but have not been in the last few years. I would be pretty upset if I still were. Being a CEO of a public company is a full time job that most funds don't want public company CEOs to serve on more than one other public board. Time and reputation wasted on this nonsense would anger me if I were still a shareholder of Tesla. One thing about Tesla though is that those who would otherwise call for boycott of Tesla couldn't afford the product so it shields him a bit more than the CEO of some general consumer product company whose revenue may be impacted by all this nonsense.
Unit2Sucks
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calbear93 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Notwithstanding the focus on Delaware and MAE here, there is plenty of precedence for lawsuits that commonly allege that the directors of the target company breached their fiduciary duty to the shareholders that typically allege that the target company failed to disclose all material information. The plaintiff shareholders then move for a preliminary injunction to enjoin the shareholder vote and seek expedited discovery in connection with their motion. That puts the target company in limbo and expedites settlements.

Disclosure based lawsuits have taken a beating in the Delaware Chancery, and there are attempts at forum shopping bylaws by Delaware corps, but large shareholders have shifted their jurisdictional focus (or so I'm told) in states where the company conducts in business (in this case California), or casting their claims as violations of the federal securities laws and filing in federal court, notwithstanding the procedural hurdles of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which Musk could be signaling given the SEC focus of Musk on the apparent Twitter disclosure issues. That said, I suspect Musk is looking for a price adjustment, not to avoid the transaction and the break-up fee.
I still think there is no chance the deal closes. He's told all of his co-investors and banks publicly that twitter's business is bad.

As for the lawsuit, if he breaks the deal and pays the $1B, I could see him suing Twitter. If he actually buys the company, he would be suing himself lol.

Like I said earlier, he's probably trying to weasel out of the full $1B fee. Maybe they'll negotiate but I suspect they sue him and away we go.

I don't read Twitter's public filings but I find it hilarious that the existence of spam/bots on twitter is this controversial - it's been known and discussed publicly for years.


You may be right but it would be so illogical from a financial, liability and reputational perspective. I suppose if you are the richest person on earth, that may not matter. I used to be a Tesla investor but have not been in the last few years. I would be pretty upset if I still were. Being a CEO of a public company is a full time job that most funds don't want public company CEOs to serve on more than one other public board. Time and reputation wasted on this nonsense would anger me if I were still a shareholder of Tesla. One thing about Tesla though is that those who would otherwise call for boycott of Tesla couldn't afford the product so it shields him a bit more than the CEO of some general consumer product company whose revenue may be impacted by all this nonsense.
If I had to rank the illogical decisions Musk has made or could make with respect to Twitter, I would say that breaking the deal is easily the least bad decision he could make and is less bad than any of the decisions he's made so far.

He's not proposing to buy Twitter on his own, he raised ~$8B+ from other big investors and he's borrowing $10B+ from banks (I don't recall exact numbers). He's just publicly told all of these sources of financing that Twitter's business may be irreparably harmed. They probably can walk away but he can't. I have a hard time believing his lawyers and bankers told him that this was a good idea,.

But if you step back, the entire notion of buying Twitter was ridiculous to begin with and was the original sin here.

So, I think weaseling out of as much of the break fee as he can is his best move right now. It's not like he's a "standup guy" who will own his mistake and his reputation isn't exactly keyed off integrity and rational decision making.
DiabloWags
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Unit2Sucks said:


If I had to rank the illogical decisions Musk has made or could make with respect to Twitter, I would say that breaking the deal is easily the least bad decision he could make and is less bad than any of the decisions he's made so far.

He's not proposing to buy Twitter on his own, he raised ~$8B+ from other big investors and he's borrowing $10B+ from banks (I don't recall exact numbers). He's just publicly told all of these sources of financing that Twitter's business may be irreparably harmed. They probably can walk away but he can't. I have a hard time believing his lawyers and bankers told him that this was a good idea,.

But if you step back, the entire notion of buying Twitter was ridiculous to begin with and was the original sin here.

So, I think weaseling out of as much of the break fee as he can is his best move right now. It's not like he's a "standup guy" who will own his mistake and his reputation isn't exactly keyed off integrity and rational decision making.
+1

Elon has the unique ability to intensely focus on a multitude of projects simultaneously.
Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company, etc.

I think that the richest entrepreneur in the world just paid $1.0 Billion to find out what his "limits" are.


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
calbear93
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Unit2Sucks said:

calbear93 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Thanks calbear93 for jumping in. I agree with everything he wrote except I don't think this deal closes. I think it ends with a lawsuit and Musk trying to weasel out of the breakup fee.

I haven't seen anything indicating they are even close to an MAE and as cb93 pointed out you can't just look at the language in a vacuum. Musk may have been successful in destroying his own ability to finance the transaction because his commitment letters won't be as bulletproof as the merger agreement.

I've been skeptical of this deal from day one and haven't seen anything that makes me think Musk is actually committed to getting the deal done. He can't just bluster his way through this and will get laughed out of court if he claims an MAE based on what we've seen so far.
Notwithstanding the focus on Delaware and MAE here, there is plenty of precedence for lawsuits that commonly allege that the directors of the target company breached their fiduciary duty to the shareholders that typically allege that the target company failed to disclose all material information. The plaintiff shareholders then move for a preliminary injunction to enjoin the shareholder vote and seek expedited discovery in connection with their motion. That puts the target company in limbo and expedites settlements.

Disclosure based lawsuits have taken a beating in the Delaware Chancery, and there are attempts at forum shopping bylaws by Delaware corps, but large shareholders have shifted their jurisdictional focus (or so I'm told) in states where the company conducts in business (in this case California), or casting their claims as violations of the federal securities laws and filing in federal court, notwithstanding the procedural hurdles of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which Musk could be signaling given the SEC focus of Musk on the apparent Twitter disclosure issues. That said, I suspect Musk is looking for a price adjustment, not to avoid the transaction and the break-up fee.
I still think there is no chance the deal closes. He's told all of his co-investors and banks publicly that twitter's business is bad.

As for the lawsuit, if he breaks the deal and pays the $1B, I could see him suing Twitter. If he actually buys the company, he would be suing himself lol.

Like I said earlier, he's probably trying to weasel out of the full $1B fee. Maybe they'll negotiate but I suspect they sue him and away we go.

I don't read Twitter's public filings but I find it hilarious that the existence of spam/bots on twitter is this controversial - it's been known and discussed publicly for years.


You may be right but it would be so illogical from a financial, liability and reputational perspective. I suppose if you are the richest person on earth, that may not matter. I used to be a Tesla investor but have not been in the last few years. I would be pretty upset if I still were. Being a CEO of a public company is a full time job that most funds don't want public company CEOs to serve on more than one other public board. Time and reputation wasted on this nonsense would anger me if I were still a shareholder of Tesla. One thing about Tesla though is that those who would otherwise call for boycott of Tesla couldn't afford the product so it shields him a bit more than the CEO of some general consumer product company whose revenue may be impacted by all this nonsense.
If I had to rank the illogical decisions Musk has made or could make with respect to Twitter, I would say that breaking the deal is easily the least bad decision he could make and is less bad than any of the decisions he's made so far.

He's not proposing to buy Twitter on his own, he raised ~$8B+ from other big investors and he's borrowing $10B+ from banks (I don't recall exact numbers). He's just publicly told all of these sources of financing that Twitter's business may be irreparably harmed. They probably can walk away but he can't. I have a hard time believing his lawyers and bankers told him that this was a good idea,.

But if you step back, the entire notion of buying Twitter was ridiculous to begin with and was the original sin here.

So, I think weaseling out of as much of the break fee as he can is his best move right now. It's not like he's a "standup guy" who will own his mistake and his reputation isn't exactly keyed off integrity and rational decision making.


Makes sense. Have not been following the Twitter/Musk drama other than what I read on NYT or WSJ from time to time. What a mess.

With the new SEC and with the trend in the M&A market in the last five years, glad I am not practicing anymore.
wifeisafurd
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calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". It is all over the place, including 4.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. This is just Musk being Musk.
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the selective provisions I read in the Agreement.

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, in March of 2019, Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. But it doesn't stop there. Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards.









I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case).

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE.

Thoughts?


The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. (I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
There is no post closing lawsuit after a deal closes to purchase a public company. Who are you going to sue? The public shareholders? Post closing lawsuits are more for private companies where sometimes you have an escrow account subject to a cap where the few shareholders put a portion of the purchase price in escrow. But there is never a post closing lawsuit by the buyer of a public company that was taken private through an acquisition.

That is why all of the diligence has to be conducted before you enter into an agreement to purchase a public company. There is really no recourse once you sign. When there is an auction (where there should be under the Revlon standard) or you are competing with a private equity firm that will just eat up the liability, good luck even getting access to good diligence without the default answer of - check our public filings and the competing buyers will have to submit their mark-up to the seller friendly merger agreement and, if one buyer brings too much deal uncertainty, they won't be invited to the next round.
Wait, I think you misread the portion of my comment that you chose to comment on. Let me try it this way, "opposite to closing the transaction, either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply." You can't sue the company you own for damages or the public shareholders who sold to you who also relied on the same information. And with fraud it is a recession type action. I know there are Delaware and MAE bias here, but you guys are misinterpreting what I'm saying. Let me refer you to the post above, somewhat ghost written by a securities litigator. Also, again, I think Musk intends to close the transaction assume the number of actual twitter eyeballs are remotely close to what is stated by the company. My guess is the leaking number of actual people on twitter has Musk's financial backers concerned.


Diligence materials is provided under such tight confidentiality obligation that the idea that the information provided can be used as a basis for a separate 10b-5 fraud on the market shareholder lawsuit is not in the realm of possibility. I don't even know how he is talking about these things directly (instead of having his banker leak anonymously to Bloomberg or wsj) other than buying himself more liability exposure. But I suspect this is the last acquisition he will attempt to do of a public company. No public board will ever again sign themselves up for this type of destruction. He should just resign to being an activist shareholder like Icahn in the future.
There seems to be a disconnect here with Musk talking about SEC disclosures and regulatory action (there is some irony to this) which is being ignored, and also for some reason that the discrepancy about the number of users/followers is simply about BOTs by another poster, in both cases to marshall arguments for outcomes.

I do get that handling this acquisition in such a public manner may have a future chilling effect on what some Boards do when confronted by Musk, but even that ignores that certain Twitter board members, such as Dorsey, invited a Musk takeover. After too many decades of practice, I guess I can say this: my experience is that facts can be messy and not always fit within in the confides of a contract, especially when you walk down the hall to talk to your litigation partners. Just because a merger is taking place, does not make the Delaware Chancery Court the arbiter of how this all plays out when a large shareholder infers he relied on inaccurate SEC disclosure.
Unit2Sucks
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wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

calbear93 said:

wifeisafurd said:

Unit2Sucks said:

wifeisafurd said:

BearGoggles said:

DiabloWags said:

BearGoggles said:



Has anyone seen the allegedly "binding" agreement? %A0Has it been filed with the SEC?

Filed April 25, 2022

DEFA14A (sec.gov)

Thank you.

To 30 seconds to scan the agreement and searched for "Company Material Adverse Effect". %A0It is all over the place, including %A04.6, 4.9(b), 4.16(b) (SEC misrepresentations could impact third part contracts, such as advertising).

I am not a corporate attorney, but my understanding is there has been extensive litigation and case law related to MAEs. %A0I have no idea if what Musk is alleging falls in that category but my wild ass guess is that the discovery of misleading SEC filings is potentially an MAE.
One condition precedent to closing is no %A0violation of reps and warranties and one such R&W was that no SEC filings %A0contain "any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading." %A0Materially misstating (in this case overstating) the number of actual users violates the contract provision (not to mention violate SEC rules on disclosure such as Rule 10b-5) and have all sorts on consequences. %A0If this is true, Musk could have a lot to different remedies, both contractual ad civil, as could other shareholders. %A0I could see Twitter stock tanking.


With a caveat that I haven't read the agreement, typically the bring down on the reps would be MAE for a public company deal meaning a breach of reps that isn't an MAE wouldn't cause the condition to fail to be satisfied.

I think there is basically no way Musk will be able to successfully argue that bots on Twitter are an MAE on the business. %A0M&A practitioners have varying views on what could constitute an MAE but I don't think this is even close to the line. %A0This is just Musk being Musk. %A0
Your discussion in the first paragraph is consistent with the %A0selective provisions I read in the Agreement. %A0

Where we differ is what the world considers a MAE. %A0Musk's comments speak to the number of "real" users which in the world of company valuation is legitimate monetizable daily active usage or users ("mDAUs) The company said it estimated the average of false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of mDAUs during that period.
Twitter now %A0admitted to overstating user numbers by 1.4 million to 1.9 million users over the past three years.
But it gets worse, %A0in March of 2019, %A0Twitter launched a feature that allowed people to link multiple separate accounts together in order to conveniently switch between accounts. Twitter now announced: "An error was made at that time, such that actions taken via the primary account resulted in all linked accounts being counted as mDA." %A0So they have a bunch a duplicate accounts for the same real live people that they are counting as septette mDAUs. %A0But it doesn't stop there. %A0Since Musk started involvement in April the number of flower accounts started dropping off. Twitter called the drop off "organic" and not related to politics and that often times there are less followers when you take action against spammers. Really? Barack Obama, the most followed user on Twitter, whose number had increased every day in April, lost more than 300,000 followers after the announcement that Musk offer was accepted. Katy Perry, the third-most-followed user on Twitter, lost more than 200,000 after the announcement.

A material adverse effect is something that signals a material decline in profitability or the possibility that the company's operations or financial position may be seriously compromised. Let's start with profitability - there is none. If in fact, Twitter overstated its number of monetizing users, the ability to make profits in the future is at risk. There is a similar analysis you go through with operations and financial position, usually dealing with a material impact on asset or liability values or liquidity.

A piece of information is material if it is reasonable to expect that the disclosure of that information will impact the company's stock price. Companies and their accountants continue to find ways to come %A0up with their own definitions of materiality. This involves establishing a numerical threshold (say, 5%) and deciding that anything that falls below the threshold will not be material.

The SEC attempted to prevent companies from hiding "material: %A0items with arbitrary threshold by establishing the following rules:

  • An intentional misstatement, even if it involves an immaterial amount, is material because of the intent to mislead.
  • Numerical thresholds alone are unacceptable.
  • Management must also weigh qualitative matters if the misstatement will hide a change in earnings or concerns a key business segment.
It's pretty clear that Twitter lied about the April disengagement of followers and it seems that was the intent. %A0Twitter has now admitted it had understated false of spam accounts, which may or may not be material or intentional by itself, and then there was a duplication of users who had duplication of accounts under Twitter's own program, which looks quite bad. My guess is the stock tanks, the SEC will be over Twitter like white on rice. %A0That Twitter chose to make public announcements suggests someone at Twitter senior management thought these events were MAEs within SEC standards. %A0






%A0


I just want to add that other than one outlier, there has never been a buyer that has been able to use the MAE condition to terminate a merger agreement with a public company.

Besides, without having read the merger agreement, the M&A market, even now, is so seller friendly that most buyers rely on reps and warranties insurance instead of reps and warranties with a bring-down closing condition. %A0Deal certainty has definitely shifted to seller's favor over the last few years. %A0Most agreements are pretty much hell or high water closing conditions. %A0I would be shocked if Musk has a lot of room to terminate an agreement. %A0Sounds like a lot of white noise.
I'm assuming you are talking about public takeover type acquisitions, %A0because in different situations, the mergers can and do fall apart, as we both know. But having read the agreement, yes Musk can walk on the breach of a R&W. Will that happen - %A0as opposed to this being white noise or causing a price adjustment - %A0not likely. It is likely Musk wanting a better deal based on a succession of bad public announcements by the company.
I am talking about using the no MAE closing condition to get out of a merger agreement with a public company. %A0Until a complete outlier case in 2017 where the facts were pretty outrageous, no court had ever interpreted the MAE to permit a buyer to terminate a merger agreement. %A0For M&A lawyers, the MAE condition was heavily negotiated knowing it would never be used (again other than the 2017 Akorn case). %A0

Of course deals have fallen apart, including for anti-trust hold up, especially if a regulator requested the buyer to sell a crown jewel. %A0Or if the shareholders do not approve, subject to payment of a break-up fee by the seller. %A0But MAE has never been used successfully prior or after the Akorn case.

Also, with PE having shifted the risk allocation on deal certainty risk to the buyer in the last 4 or five years, merger agreements in general but most definitely in a situation like a semi hostile like this will have deal certainty in favor of the seller.

...each of the representations and warranties of the Company contained in this Agreement (except for the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b)), without giving effect to any materiality or "Company Material Adverse Effect" qualifications therein, shall be true and correct as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct as of such specific date only), except for such failures to be true and correct as would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect; and (ii) each of the representations and warranties contained in Section 4.2(a) and Section 4.2(b) shall be shall be true and correct in all material respects as of the Closing Date (except to the extent such representations and warranties are expressly made as of a specific date, in which case such representations and warranties shall be so true and correct in all material respects as of such specific date only);

Here are what I think are the applicable reps and warranties:

4.5 (b) Neither the Company nor any of its Subsidiaries is in default or violation of any Law applicable to the Company, any of its Subsidiaries or by which any of their respective properties or assets are bound, except for any such defaults or violations that would not have a Company Material Adverse Effect. Notwithstanding the foregoing, no representation or warranty in Section 4.5(a) or this Section 4.5(b) is made with respect to Company SEC Documents or financial statements, "disclosure controls and procedures" or "internal control over financial reporting," employee benefits matters, Intellectual Property Rights matters, Tax matters, which are addressed exclusively in Section 4.6 (Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements),Section 4.8 (Disclosure Controls and Procedures), Section 4.12 (Employee Benefit Plans), Section 4.14 (Intellectual Property Rights), Section 4.15 (Taxes), respectively.

Section 4.6 Company SEC Documents; Financial Statements.
(a) Since January 1, 2022, the Company has filed or furnished with the SEC all material forms, documents and reports required to be filed or furnished prior to the date of this Agreement by it with the SEC (such forms, documents and reports filed with the SEC, including any amendments or supplements thereto and any exhibits or other documents attached to or incorporated by reference therein, the "Company SEC Documents"). As of their respective dates, or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last such amendment or supplement, the Company SEC Documents complied in all material respects with the requirements of the Securities Act and the Exchange Act, as the case may be, and the applicable rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and none of the Company SEC Documents at the time it was filed (or, if amended or supplemented, as of the date of the last amendment or supplement) contained any untrue statement of a material fact or omitted to state any material fact required to be stated therein or necessary to make the statements therein, in light of the circumstances under which they were made, or are to be made, not misleading.
(b) The consolidated financial statements (including all related notes) of the Company included in the Company SEC Documents fairly present in all material respects the consolidated financial position of the Company and its consolidated Subsidiaries as at the respective dates thereof and its consolidated statements of operations and consolidated statements of cash flows for the respective periods then ended (subject, in the case of unaudited interim statements, to normal year-end audit adjustments, none of which would have a Company Material Adverse Effect, to the absence of notes and to any other adjustments described therein, including in any notes thereto) in conformity with GAAP (except, in the case of unaudited statements, as permitted by Form 10-Q, Form 8-K or any successor form or other rules under the Exchange Act).


I looked at these same provisions last night and found the bolded language in the first paragraph poorly drafted/hard to read. I'm reading the bolded portion as saying that Musk's closing condition for a false R&W can only be asserted if the false rep has a MAE. %A0

Thoughts?


The other side the transaction closes and either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply. %A0(I'm in agreement with '93 this transaction, absent some huge fraud occurring, is closing).
There is no post closing lawsuit after a deal closes to purchase a public company. %A0Who are you going to sue? %A0The public shareholders? %A0Post closing lawsuits are more for private companies where sometimes you have an escrow account subject to a cap where the few shareholders put a portion of the purchase price in escrow. %A0But there is never a post closing lawsuit by the buyer of a public company that was taken private through an acquisition.

That is why all of the diligence has to be conducted before you enter into an agreement to purchase a public company. %A0There is really no recourse once you sign. %A0When there is an auction (where there should be under the Revlon standard) or you are competing with a private equity firm that will just eat up the liability, good luck even getting access to good diligence without the default answer of - check our public filings and the competing buyers will have to submit their mark-up to the seller friendly merger agreement and, if one buyer brings too much deal uncertainty, they won't be invited to the next round.
Wait, I think you misread the portion of my comment that you chose to comment on. %A0Let me try it this way, "opposite to closing the transaction, either Musk sues as a shareholder under securities laws where MAE doesn't apply, or the parent and sub close and sue for damages, again where MAE probably doesn't apply." %A0You can't sue the company you own for damages or the public shareholders who sold to you who also relied on the same information. %A0And with fraud it is a recession type action. I know there are Delaware and MAE bias here, but you guys are misinterpreting what I'm saying. Let me refer you to the post above, somewhat ghost written by a securities litigator. %A0Also, again, I think Musk intends to close the transaction assume the number of actual twitter eyeballs are remotely close to what is stated by the company. %A0My guess is the leaking number of actual people on twitter has Musk's financial backers concerned.


Diligence materials is provided under such tight confidentiality obligation that the idea that the information provided can be used as a basis for a separate 10b-5 fraud on the market shareholder lawsuit is not in the realm of possibility. %A0I don't even know how he is talking about these things directly (instead of having his banker leak anonymously to Bloomberg or wsj) other than buying himself more liability exposure. %A0 But I suspect this is the last acquisition he will attempt to do of a public company. %A0No public board will ever again sign themselves up for this type of destruction. %A0 He should just resign to being an activist shareholder like Icahn in the future. %A0
There seems to be a disconnect here with Musk talking about SEC disclosures and regulatory action (there is some irony to this) which is being ignored, and also for some reason that the discrepancy about the number of users/followers is simply about BOTs by another poster, in both cases to marshall arguments for outcomes.

I do get that handling this acquisition in such a public manner may have a future chilling effect on what some Boards do when confronted by Musk, but even that ignores that certain Twitter board members, such as Dorsey, invited a Musk takeover. %A0After too many decades of practice, I guess I can say this: %A0my experience is that facts can be messy and not always fit within in the confides of a contract, especially when you walk down the hall to talk to your litigation partners. %A0Just because a merger is taking place, does not make the Delaware Chancery Court the arbiter of how this all plays out when a large shareholder infers he relied on inaccurate SEC disclosure.
I don't quite know what you're saying and concede it's possible that you know way more about this than I do, but I think you've misjudged the situation.

I wrote a long post but after thinking about it some more will just say this.%A0 If you know anyone in digital advertising, talk to them about what Musk is saying.%A0 If you don't know anyone like that, do some googling.%A0 Based on everything I know (professional experience with digital marketing) and from talking to both people at Twitter and digital marketing experts, Musk is an amateur and the more he says the more it becomes clear he doesn't really understand Twitter's business.

He's succeeded in proving that his intelligence is limited and his famed "first principles" approach doesn't work if he doesn't have foundational knowledge and isn't willing to do the work to learn what matters.%A0

Twitter's going to be damaged long-term because of the association with Elon but not because he's pointing out anything that people in the industry didn't already know.%A0 The problem is that all the good people are exiting Twitter right now and they won't be able to attract and retain top talent going forward.%A0 But he hasn't brought up anything that fundamentally changes how people in the know think about Twitter as an advertising platform and service.
concordtom
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dimitrig said:

BearForce2 said:

concordtom said:

oski003 said:

concordtom said:

BearForce2 said:

Inflation sucks but it's also completely irrelevant to the Democrats. Biden has recently said:

1. Systemic racism is our greatest domestic problem.
2. Climate change is our greatest global problem
3. J6 was the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War
You're going back on my IGNORE list.

Don't replace your former conservative echo chamber with a liberal echo chamber. You both talk in absolutes as if the other party is radical.

…when in reality, only one is.



It is a good thing to rethink and evolve one's views over time.

Standing still would mean only white male landowners could vote.

Standing still would allow humans to own other humans.

Standing still would mean we'd still be living under a monarch.

Change is good.


As I've said, being LIBERAL is good.
Stars!
BearForce2
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Sometimes, a timeline can be very helpful.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
dajo9
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Britain's conservative government is more liberal than our Democratic Party
Unit2Sucks
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Inflation will continue to stay elevated because of the lag in reporting of housing costs, regardless of anything the government or Fed does.

See here for an article from the Dallas Fed:

Quote:

Our forecasting model shows that rent inflation and OER inflation are expected to increase materially in 2022 and 2023. Given their weights in the core PCE price index (which excludes food and energy), rent and OER together are expected to contribute about 0.6 percentage points to 12-month core PCE inflation for 2022 and about 1.2 percentage points for 2023.

These forecasts also suggest that rising inflation for rent and OER could push the overall and core PCE inflation rates above 2 percent in 2023, when current supply bottlenecks and labor shortages may have subsided (Table 1).

Table 1 shows that, all else equal, the acceleration in rent and OER inflation by December 2023 would raise overall and core PCE inflation by about 0.50.6 percentage points relative to their prepandemic levels of 1.8 percent.

DiabloWags
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MAY CPI shocks the Street consensus.

8.6%

BearForce2
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CPI Report: Inflation rose 8.6% in May!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
DiabloWags
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Here's Why Food, Energy Inflation Hit American Households Like Never Before - Bloomberg

"You normally wouldn't see both of these things happening at the same time," said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC, referring to soaring energy and food prices. In the past, any stretch of high inflation in a single category would likely be isolated and pass in a few months' time, he said. "And now, nothing is well-behaved."

Inflation Frustration
Power, fuel and food are all rising at double-digit rates, slamming budgets


BearForce2
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Don't believe your government.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
cbbass1
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dajo9 said:

Britain's conservative government is more liberal than our Democratic Party

That's a pretty low bar.

The terms "Liberal" and "Conservative" are useless today, because there's no agreement on what they mean.

On social issues, most people can identify "Liberal" and "Conservative" POVs, but this is economic; and for economics, the two opposing forces are Labor and Capital.

This is a great tax. Why? Because if Price Gouging isn't happening, it'll have no affect whatsoever on inflation, and those who claim that there is Price Gouging will have egg on their faces. But if Price Gouging is a big contributor to inflation, the tax will simply reduce the inflation.

This also highlights the degree to which both U.S. political parties are beholden to their oil/energy & Wall St. donor/owners. Even if this works in the UK, it won't even be discussed in the U.S.
DiabloWags
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Market collapsing as more and more participants are afraid that the FED is so far behind the curve that they will be making a 75 basis point increase this week to Fed Funds.

The yield on the 10 year is up a whopping 6.65%

BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Unit2Sucks
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cbbass1 said:

dajo9 said:

Britain's conservative government is more liberal than our Democratic Party



This is a great tax. Why? Because if Price Gouging isn't happening, it'll have no affect whatsoever on inflation, and those who claim that there is Price Gouging will have egg on their faces. But if Price Gouging is a big contributor to inflation, the tax will simply reduce the inflation.
Can you elaborate? I'm trying to understand how and why this tax will have a deflationary impact. From what I've read, it will just reduce domestic production and could potentially lead to even higher prices at the pump. I would need to see a lot more than just the fact that an oil-free country like the UK is doing it.
DiabloWags
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I'm gonna date myself with this post, but Ed Hyman is looking for 1.4% GDP in 2022 and no recession.
But he's also forecasting relatively high inflation sticking with us.
4.0% for 2023.

#1 for 41 years by the Institutional Investor poll of an investors for Economics.
Love Ed.

Ed Hyman - Evercore

cbbass1
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Unit2Sucks said:

cbbass1 said:

dajo9 said:

Britain's conservative government is more liberal than our Democratic Party



This is a great tax. Why? Because if Price Gouging isn't happening, it'll have no affect whatsoever on inflation, and those who claim that there is Price Gouging will have egg on their faces. But if Price Gouging is a big contributor to inflation, the tax will simply reduce the inflation.
Can you elaborate? I'm trying to understand how and why this tax will have a deflationary impact. From what I've read, it will just reduce domestic production and could potentially lead to even higher prices at the pump. I would need to see a lot more than just the fact that an oil-free country like the UK is doing it.
The 25% excess profits tax would penalize any price increases that are beyond the level of increased costs.

The UK may be an oil-free country, but BP is a big oil company in the UK.

Since energy costs are a key cost component of so many goods & services, price gouging by oil companies drives inflation throughout the entire economy.

What I don't understand is how the 25% excess profits tax would reduce domestic production. This is an obviously self-serving talking point that's popular with monopolies. They assert that they need outrageously high prices as an incentive to produce more. But that's obvious B.S. The short supply is what keeps the price high. They have zero incentive to produce more, increase supply, and reduce their margins.

It'll be interesting to circle back & compare the UK's inflation reduction strategy (25% excess profits tax) to the U.S. (higher interest rates -> crashing the economy).
dajo9
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Could be that we are looking at two separate inflation movements. The first was caused by the Trump / Biden fiscal stimulus which put trillions into the economy during the pandemic boosting demand while much of the supply was being restrained by the pandemic. This inflation surge, which was largely supported by money being put into people's pockets through wage hikes and / or government transfers, may have peaked in March. So far, core cpi, which excludes food and energy, peaked in March at 6.4% and was 6.0% in May.

The second inflation movement may be a supply shock in food and energy from Putin's war. That is the lift we saw in the May numbers from headline inflation while core inflation continued to decrease. If this theory is correct (and only time and data will tell) then I fear the lessons learned from the May report are really bad news. The Fed and the market will be doubling down on raising rates even more while most of the economy is already experiencing reduced inflation. Like taking an airplane already in decent, yet experiencing turbulence and bumps, and giving it a good swift tailwind downwards. Brace for impact.
 
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