October CPI +7.7%

Down from the 8.2% in September and less than the Street expectation of 8%.

Core rate +6.3% and less than the expected 6.5%

Food and shelter and rent prices also rose 0.6 and 0.7%

Energy rose 1.8% reversing the declines of the prior four months.

Futures markets exploding higher.

S&P +119

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

DiabloWags said:

---

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

DiabloWags said:

---

October CPI +7.7%

Down from the 8.2% in September and less than the Street expectation of 8%.

Core rate +6.3% and less than the expected 6.5%

Food and shelter and rent prices also rose 0.6 and 0.7%

Energy rose 1.8% reversing the declines of the prior four months.

Futures markets exploding higher.

S&P +119

---

Great just need to cut the core rate to 3% and then back on the fed money cannon.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

To understand the significance of this, UPS and Fed-Ex revenues and operations are viewed as indications of macroeconomic trends and consumer sentiments.

Folks need to stop viewing economic indicators in a Pollyannaish manner.

Corporate demand is still somewhat strong, unemployment rate is stubborn, but rough waters (hopefully shallow) are very likely with hopes of long recovery starting in the second half of 2023. Cost cutting is the norm for most industries and it will ripple across to the overall workforce and economy fairly soon.

The Generation Zers who thought the Great Resignation and Quiet Quitting were acceptable will understand the employer / employee dynamics most Generation Xers like me experienced. Our generation survived number of recessions, so Generation Zers will be OK, but it will be an initial culture shock for the newbies.

10 year yield collapsing and trading 3.848%

Spread between the 3 month and 10 year is now the biggest in 3 years.
31 basis points.

DiabloWags said:

---

October CPI +7.7%

Down from the 8.2% in September and less than the Street expectation of 8%.

Core rate +6.3% and less than the expected 6.5%

Food and shelter and rent prices also rose 0.6 and 0.7%

Energy rose 1.8% reversing the declines of the prior four months.

Futures markets exploding higher.

S&P +119

---

Once Biden empties out our Strategic Election Oil Reserve, things will get interesting.

DiabloWags said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

---

All the hi tech companies are free for mass layoffs, and other bad news purposefully held at bay.

movielover said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

---

All the hi tech companies are free for mass layoffs, and other bad news purposefully held at bay.

---

Look on the bright side, GOP propagandists don't have to make stuff up about fentanyl in halloween candy or caravans to make people like you afraid.

They can get back to making up things to stoke white grievance and culture wars which is more of an evergreen platform instead of purely for electioneering.

Unit2Sucks said:

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movielover said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

DiabloWags said:

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Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

---

All the hi tech companies are free for mass layoffs, and other bad news purposefully held at bay.

---

Look on the bright side, GOP propagandists don't have to make stuff up about fentanyl in halloween candy or caravans to make people like you afraid.

They can get back to making up things to stoke white grievance and culture wars which is more of an evergreen platform instead of purely for electioneering.

---

The only people I know that were very afraid of fentanyl in Halloween candy were your crazy relatives. I think your experience with their idiocy shapes your bias as you assume everyone is as dumb as they are.

Movielover sounds like he's upset about the Nasdaq being up over 7% today.
Biden Bad. Trump Good.
lol

The energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.

Egg prices increased +10.1% last month, 43% higher than last year.
Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year.
Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year.
Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.

Flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year.

Home heating oil increased 19.8% in October and is now a 68.5% higher than last October.

Unleaded gasoline increased another 3.5% and now is now 20.9% higher than last year (Oct '21), which was already 40% higher than January 2021.

movielover said:

---

The energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.

Egg prices increased +10.1% last month, 43% higher than last year.
Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year.
Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year.
Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.

Flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year.

Home heating oil increased 19.8% in October and is now a 68.5% higher than last October.

Unleaded gasoline increased another 3.5% and now is now 20.9% higher than last year (Oct '21), which was already 40% higher than January 2021.

---

Do people realize that egg/poultry prices are high because millions of birds were culled (killed) due to widespread Avion Flu? It's not ⁦@POTUS⁩ fault.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2022 — in one chart - CNBC https://t.co/VS7pk60jtf

— Dennis (@your_neighbor) November 10, 2022

People also dont seem to understand that lettuce prices went through the roof due to a virus either.
They also blame BIDEN for that.

Ag Alert

Welcome to Dumberica!

DiabloWags said:

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People also dont seem to understand that lettuce prices went through the roof due to a virus either.
They also blame BIDEN for that.

Welcome to Dumberica!

---

Is this the first time we have had a lettuce virus? Are there unusual circumstances here? You are welcome to share the news instead of speaking vaguely and insulting everyone.

Sleepy Joe will run for 4 more years. Oh boy. Sleepy and Cackles.

Now Goldman is saying there won't be a recession lol. I guess without electioneering, the fear-mongering can end.

Goldman digs in.

“US Likely to Avoid Recession. .. the incoming activity data are nowhere close to recessionary.” [Hatzius] #GDP pic.twitter.com/dp8ZefzMpC

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 16, 2022

Meanwhile . . .

The Bond market just gave the most negative Recession reading in more than 40 years.
The 2/10 year spread is at a WHOPPING MINUS 67 BASIS POINTS!

Hasnt seen that kind of INVERSION since Feb. 1982

Ten year Treasury yield drops, driving popular bond-market recession gauge to most-negative level in more than 40 years - MarketWatch

PS. Goldman is still at a 35% chance. Says that the U.S. will narrowly avoid Recession.
Hatzius is saying this because of strong October economic numbers, including the Q3 GDP which came out Oct. 27.
This compares to the WSJ October consensus at 65%

We were already in a Recession. LNG and military sales to Europe put us in positive territory.

Nonsense.

Recessions dont happen with the unempoyment rate at 3.6%

DiabloWags said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

---

That's fantastic news! Package volume is down! Weak Demand! Lower sales! Lower Revenues! Economic contraction!

Just what the Fed wanted, right?

cbbass1 said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Fed-Ex reducing the frequency of flights and has parked some of its planes in response to weak demand for package delivery. Literally unheard of going into the Christmas shopping season.

FedEx (FDX) Parks Planes as Weak Demand Prompts Cost-Cutting Steps - Bloomberg

---

Maybe people are cost cutting too and opting for ground delivery instead of next day air.

---

No.

It's actual package volume that is declining around the world and what the company is worried about.
For example, the CFO stated that the company had halted 23 domestic flights and about 9 international ones.

FedEx reacts to slower package demand by parking planes | Seeking Alpha

---

That's fantastic news! Package volume is down! Weak Demand! Lower sales! Lower Revenues! Economic contraction!

Just what the Fed wanted, right?

---

Yes.

BUT . . . the unemployment rate continues to be far too low to impact demand in the way that the FED wants and there appears to be structural issues that are playing into the unemployment rate having not ticked back up by now. Given all of the rate hikes, most economists had thought that the unemployment rate would be a lot higher than just 3.7%

Given the above, it's my opinion that the FED will raise rates another 50 basis points in December and leave the Fed Funds rate elevated for quite some time. There will be a "pause" in rate hikes, but not the "pivot" that Wall Street is so anxiously anticipating.

On another note, I would have thought that you and your predisposition to "Labor vs Capital" would have mentioned that UPS is union while Fed-Ex is not. My brother works at Fed-Ex and he hates it. He cant wait to retire.

Supply Chain Issues:

This is merely anecdotal, but it appears to me that some of our supply chain issues have abated.
I've got 2 cats and feed a neighbor's cat and go through a TON of wet cat food.

Anyone that has feline pets has been well aware that it has been extremely difficult to source Friskie's wet cat food for a full year now, going back to last Thanksgiving. Shelves at Safeway, as well as Petsmart have essentially been empty. It's been the strangest thing, given that we've been well past Covid issues for most of this last year. Never mind that when you can find cans of wet food, prices are 40% higher than before Covid.

Kitty Litter has been available, but Safeway has actually been charging a ridiculous $11.98 for 20 lbs. of litter made by Arm & Hammer, an American company that goes back 176 years.

Interestingly enough, in just the last week I've noticed a slight uptick in the availability of Friskies. Shelves are still 75% empty, but it does appear that there are more cans on the shelves. Even the Arm & Hammer kitty litter was discounted at my local Safeway this past week to $7.99 per box.

5.99 for a regular dozen eggs … smh
At this point I'm ready to build a chicken coup

For regular people / the masses thinks are going to continue to get ugly.

For the fortunate non greedy folks be aware/safe because it is jacking season thus more and more people are starving…

CALIFORNIA's Legislative Analyst's Office is already forecasting a $25 Billion dollar deficit and that's not even figuring in for a Recession.

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

And this is after our current fiscal year which shows a $97 Billion dollar SURPLUS.

Why?

"California's steeply progressive income tax makes it heavily dependent on the income, and especially the capital gains, of high earners. The top 0.5% of taxpayers pay 40% of state income tax. Tax revenue surged in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies inflated asset values. Many tech workers cashed out stock options.

Surging capital gains and a gusher of federal pandemic relief contributed to a $97 billion budget surplus in this fiscal year and $76 billion a year earlier. As usual, Democrats spent like this would never end. But stock values, especially of high-flying tech companies, have crashed since the Fed began tightening more aggressively this year. Silicon Valley companies are laying off workers.

So little surprise, the state budget analyst now forecasts a $25 billion hole in the next fiscal year, which it says "understates the actual budget problem in inflation-adjusted terms" because it didn't adjust many spending programs for inflation. "Assuming the Legislature wanted to maintain its current level of services, additional spending would be necessary," the LAO says."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-heads-for-a-budget-crash-sacramento-lao-shortfall-inflation-capital-gains-taxes-high-earners-11668958109?st=huivhql4ddn2hvo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Well if you over tax those w/o basic needs …

DiabloWags said:

---

CALIFORNIA's Legislative Analyst's Office is already forecasting a $25 Billion dollar deficit and that's not even figuring in for a Recession.

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

And this is after our current fiscal year which shows a $97 Billion dollar SURPLUS.

Why?

"California's steeply progressive income tax makes it heavily dependent on the income, and especially the capital gains, of high earners. The top 0.5% of taxpayers pay 40% of state income tax. Tax revenue surged in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies inflated asset values. Many tech workers cashed out stock options.

Surging capital gains and a gusher of federal pandemic relief contributed to a $97 billion budget surplus in this fiscal year and $76 billion a year earlier. As usual, Democrats spent like this would never end. But stock values, especially of high-flying tech companies, have crashed since the Fed began tightening more aggressively this year. Silicon Valley companies are laying off workers.

So little surprise, the state budget analyst now forecasts a $25 billion hole in the next fiscal year, which it says "understates the actual budget problem in inflation-adjusted terms" because it didn't adjust many spending programs for inflation. "Assuming the Legislature wanted to maintain its current level of services, additional spending would be necessary," the LAO says."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-heads-for-a-budget-crash-sacramento-lao-shortfall-inflation-capital-gains-taxes-high-earners-11668958109?st=huivhql4ddn2hvo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

---

The best way to reduce the share of taxes paid by the wealthy is to reduce the income share of the wealthy

The best way to protect a state's budget from going thru such dramatic cyclical fluctuations when you have a progressive income tax, IS TO CUT BACK ON SPENDING.

And that means not sending out $10 BILLION (in bribes) just before the Election.

DiabloWags said:

---

The best way to protect a state's budget from going thru such dramatic cyclical fluctuations when you have a progressive income tax, IS TO CUT BACK ON SPENDING.

And that means not sending out $10 BILLION (in bribes) just before the Election.

---

Didn't we also project a ~$54B deficit in 2020 due to COVID? And we ended up with a $75B surplus. I take all these projections with an ocean of salt.

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

CALIFORNIA's Legislative Analyst's Office is already forecasting a $25 Billion dollar deficit and that's not even figuring in for a Recession.

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

And this is after our current fiscal year which shows a $97 Billion dollar SURPLUS.

Why?

"California's steeply progressive income tax makes it heavily dependent on the income, and especially the capital gains, of high earners. The top 0.5% of taxpayers pay 40% of state income tax. Tax revenue surged in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies inflated asset values. Many tech workers cashed out stock options.

Surging capital gains and a gusher of federal pandemic relief contributed to a $97 billion budget surplus in this fiscal year and $76 billion a year earlier. As usual, Democrats spent like this would never end. But stock values, especially of high-flying tech companies, have crashed since the Fed began tightening more aggressively this year. Silicon Valley companies are laying off workers.

So little surprise, the state budget analyst now forecasts a $25 billion hole in the next fiscal year, which it says "understates the actual budget problem in inflation-adjusted terms" because it didn't adjust many spending programs for inflation. "Assuming the Legislature wanted to maintain its current level of services, additional spending would be necessary," the LAO says."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-heads-for-a-budget-crash-sacramento-lao-shortfall-inflation-capital-gains-taxes-high-earners-11668958109?st=huivhql4ddn2hvo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

---

The best way to reduce the share of taxes paid by the wealthy is to reduce the income share of the wealthy

---

But then Liberals like yourself wouldnt be able to redistribute income to fund all of your "giveaway" social programs.

That $300 BILLIION BUDGET that the state assembly passed back in June would be a shell of its former self.

DiabloWags said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

CALIFORNIA's Legislative Analyst's Office is already forecasting a $25 Billion dollar deficit and that's not even figuring in for a Recession.

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

And this is after our current fiscal year which shows a $97 Billion dollar SURPLUS.

Why?

"California's steeply progressive income tax makes it heavily dependent on the income, and especially the capital gains, of high earners. The top 0.5% of taxpayers pay 40% of state income tax. Tax revenue surged in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policies inflated asset values. Many tech workers cashed out stock options.

Surging capital gains and a gusher of federal pandemic relief contributed to a $97 billion budget surplus in this fiscal year and $76 billion a year earlier. As usual, Democrats spent like this would never end. But stock values, especially of high-flying tech companies, have crashed since the Fed began tightening more aggressively this year. Silicon Valley companies are laying off workers.

So little surprise, the state budget analyst now forecasts a $25 billion hole in the next fiscal year, which it says "understates the actual budget problem in inflation-adjusted terms" because it didn't adjust many spending programs for inflation. "Assuming the Legislature wanted to maintain its current level of services, additional spending would be necessary," the LAO says."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-heads-for-a-budget-crash-sacramento-lao-shortfall-inflation-capital-gains-taxes-high-earners-11668958109?st=huivhql4ddn2hvo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

---

The best way to reduce the share of taxes paid by the wealthy is to reduce the income share of the wealthy

---

But then Liberals like yourself wouldnt be able to redistribute income to fund all of your "giveaway" social programs.

---

Why not?

Unit2Sucks said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

The best way to protect a state's budget from going thru such dramatic cyclical fluctuations when you have a progressive income tax, IS TO CUT BACK ON SPENDING.

And that means not sending out $10 BILLION (in bribes) just before the Election.

---

Didn't we also project a ~$54B deficit in 2020 due to COVID? And we ended up with a $75B surplus. I take all these projections with an ocean of salt.

---

That was obviously due to a roaring stock market which generated a ton of capital gains revenue for the State.
That clearly hasnt been the case this year and that's why monthly revenues are already falling short.

If your tax revenue lives by the sword and depends on incomes > $500,000
It also dies by the sword.

Basic Econ 101

Don't we still have a rainy day fund?

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRQEkFf5/

Does make any valid points ?