dimitrig said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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bear2034 said:

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DiabloWags said:

---

The $2 trillion expense cut is pure FANTASY.

---

But increased spending isn't.

---

If you think Trump is going to cut spending, you weren't paying attention during his first term.

---

Most Trump supporters voted for him to fix the things he didn't do the first time in office like the border.

What makes them think he will get them done this time?

---

I think Trump is like Emperor Palpatine. He channels people's anger - whatever it may be that people are angry about, he draws it out and gets them to yell. Once he has captured their emotion, he can lead them like the pied piper.

bear2034 said:

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dimitrig said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

The $2 trillion expense cut is pure FANTASY.

---

But increased spending isn't.

---

If you think Trump is going to cut spending, you weren't paying attention during his first term.

---

Most Trump supporters voted for him to fix the things he didn't do the first time in office like the border.

What makes them think he will get them done this time?

---

The same reason why you're hating Trump's cabinet picks.

---

At least it's clear and understandable what G4R is upset about.
What's your excuse in life?
What hurts have you suffered?

BearGoggles said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

The $2 trillion expense cut is pure FANTASY.

---

But increased spending isn't.

---

If you think Trump is going to cut spending, you weren't paying attention during his first term.

---

The above is exactly correct. Trump has shown no willingness to cut spending.

That being said, can he slow the growth of spending?

And those saying that only congress can appropriate/cut are correct. But I think that ignores one important fact. The executive branch has some discretion as to when funds are actually spent and the overall operation of government. I believe, for example, Trump could simply announce a hiring freeze and let the government shrink by natural attrition. Or he could announce nothing and just let that happen.

And there are lots of complicated laws. For example, Biden announced he was slowing (and threatened to suspend) congressionally approved arms transfers to Israel. Those were approved/appropriated by Congress, but there were other laws that arguably applied to permit this. So often, where there's a will, there's a way. The problem is there is likely no will.

---

Care to comment on the economic growth rate if government spending declines by Trump cuts?
Put on your cnbc hat.

concordtom said:

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Energy sector is 5-6% of USA GDP.

Per Musk's vision, this could be spent more efficiently.

Massive transmission line upgrades ("Infrastructure Week"!) are needed.

Eisenhower brought you the federal Highway system?
Trump can bring you a National Grid.

---

I'm sure he was not the first, but RFK Jr spoke about a national power transmission system similar to the national highway system early on in his presidential run. Like most news things these days I heard it on the All In podcast. He postulated solar and wind in one of the Dakotas as the hub. Seems reasonable, but then I thought hiring Wilcox was reasonable.

bear2034 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

The $2 trillion expense cut is pure FANTASY.

---

But increased spending isn't.

---

Correct.
Trump and the GOP will spend, spend, spend.
Just like during his first term.

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

tequila4kapp said:

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Interesting discussion.
Trying to align the spending bill to the Musk activities seems like an impossible task.

---

For starters, Musk and Tesla enjoy all kinds of government subsidies and tax credits.
Contrast this to Trump's appointment of Chris Wright to be the Secretary of Energy.

Wright is the CEO of a fracking company.

Per his comments, he doesn't believe in alternative fuels/energy and he doesn't believe that the Nation is currently in a transition towards fuels with less of a carbon fossil fuel imprint.

Trump is clearly in the same camp as Wright.

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

How do you cut $2 Trillion as Musk has claimed when only $1.7 Trillion is discretionary spending?

Are you not aware that the DoD budget will increase under Trump and the GOP?
And that he's going to be even more generous with Social Security?

Musk's America PAC posted this image on X recently, identifying various ways the Government is alleged to be wasting money.

One of the things that stands out is that the vast majority of what's identified here is INTEREST ON THE DEBT.

Unless the government intends to DEFAULT, there's probably not much that can be done here.
And as I stated in a previous post, this number is currently over $900 Billion and on the way to $1.2 Trillion.

In fact, there's an awful lot of stuff here that doesn't move the dial at all.

DiabloWags said:

---

Musk's America PAC posted this image on X recently, identifying various ways the Government is alleged to be wasting money.

One of the things that stands out is that the vast majority of what's identified here is INTEREST ON THE DEBT.

Unless the government intends to DEFAULT, there's probably not much that can be done here.
And as I stated in a previous post, this number is currently over $900 Billion and on the way to $1.2 Trillion.

In fact, there's an awful lot of stuff here that doesn't move the dial at all.

---

So keep raising taxes and growing the economy? With whatever cutting Doge can manage?

82gradDLSdad said:

---

I'm sure he was not the first, but RFK Jr spoke about a national power transmission system similar to the national highway system early on in his presidential run. Like most news things these days I heard it on the All In podcast. He postulated solar and wind in one of the Dakotas as the hub. Seems reasonable, but then I thought hiring Wilcox was reasonable.

---

Build once, benefit forever (less damage repair and maintenance).
Unlike petro which is gone once burned up.

Wind and sun and perpetual.

Unfortunately, trump nominated, typically, some oil and fracking guy to be his Energy Secretary.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

---

Are you childless, that you don't care what type of country gets passed down to them?

One cannot "overspend our national budget forever". It doesn't work that way. Eventually, nobody buys your bonds. Hyperinflation. Dollar worthless.

concordtom said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

---

Are you childless, that you don't care what type of country gets passed down to them?

One cannot "overspend our national budget forever". It doesn't work that way. Eventually, nobody buys your bonds. Hyperinflation. Dollar worthless.

---

I can assure you that a lot of the folks supporting DOGE are not childless and certainly care what kind of country is passed down to their children. You and them just disagree on what that means.

concordtom said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

---

Are you childless, that you don't care what type of country gets passed down to them?

One cannot "overspend our national budget forever". It doesn't work that way. Eventually, nobody buys your bonds. Hyperinflation. Dollar worthless.

---

Sarcastic "nothing wrong with that" statement. I'm with you. Have to start nibbling away at overspending, adjusting taxes, probably up, removing cap on income subject to SS tax, maybe means testing SS. I have 39 year old twins. We use our good fortune to help them but they are pretty self sufficient.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

Musk's America PAC posted this image on X recently, identifying various ways the Government is alleged to be wasting money.

One of the things that stands out is that the vast majority of what's identified here is INTEREST ON THE DEBT.

Unless the government intends to DEFAULT, there's probably not much that can be done here.
And as I stated in a previous post, this number is currently over $900 Billion and on the way to $1.2 Trillion.

In fact, there's an awful lot of stuff here that doesn't move the dial at all.

---

So keep raising taxes and growing the economy? With whatever cutting Doge can manage?

---

Wags, I just heard a discussion of this on ProfG podcast. You are probably right about this. My very general point is we have to start whittling away at this gross overspending. I know you and others know more about the actual detail of this than I. Here's the real pipe dream of mine (and with Trump it's impossible): politicians need to come clean and say we ****ed up. We (mostly politicians and greedy lobbyists) all need to do a better job of spending what we take in and quit the lying. Almost every respected person I've heard talk about our debt says it's not sustainable. Maybe we are already too far gone. I'm hesitant to make massive tax on very wealthy people/corporations (I'm not one) the basis for solving this problem. I think they will move out of the country taking their tax base and/or job creating/technical innovation with them. It's certainly a discussion point and I'm no expert on massive taxes to solve over spending. I'm not anxious to see if this is what will happen to CA since companies and people have moved out and we have a large debt. We are already paying a lot here.

I can't type anymore on my phone. These discussions are too detailed for me to write about. But it could be worse. I'm on a Starbucks break from a bike ride.

concordtom said:

---

BearGoggles said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

bear2034 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

The $2 trillion expense cut is pure FANTASY.

---

But increased spending isn't.

---

If you think Trump is going to cut spending, you weren't paying attention during his first term.

---

The above is exactly correct. Trump has shown no willingness to cut spending.

That being said, can he slow the growth of spending?

And those saying that only congress can appropriate/cut are correct. But I think that ignores one important fact. The executive branch has some discretion as to when funds are actually spent and the overall operation of government. I believe, for example, Trump could simply announce a hiring freeze and let the government shrink by natural attrition. Or he could announce nothing and just let that happen.

And there are lots of complicated laws. For example, Biden announced he was slowing (and threatened to suspend) congressionally approved arms transfers to Israel. Those were approved/appropriated by Congress, but there were other laws that arguably applied to permit this. So often, where there's a will, there's a way. The problem is there is likely no will.

---

Care to comment on the economic growth rate if government spending declines by Trump cuts?
Put on your cnbc hat.

---

So the unsustainable growth of government should be the driver of overall growth? That seems problematic because at some point you can't borrow enough money to generate growth (or as Thatcher said, you run out of other people's money to spend).

No doubt reducing government spending impacts growth. But what I was proposing was some combination of: (i) reducing the growth of spending; and (ii) cuts based on shrinking the overall size of government through natural attrition.

I was listening to a podcast recent and someone (maybe Ackman?) made an interesting proposal. Offer government workers a 12 month (or whatever period) severance and tell them that if they get alternate full time employment in the private workforce before the time period, they get a lump sum of the remaining severance. In simple terms, provide a financial incentive to obtain private work.

Given unemployment numbers, there seems to be room for the the private sector to absorb a fair number of government worker.

Relevant to the discussion:

I was making this point the other day: this 👇 is why the so-called "department of government efficiency" is very unlikely to achieve much.

Because when you look at who actually works for the US federal government the IMMENSE majority (about 80%) of people are related to… https://t.co/ZlawMwajU5

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 18, 2024

Cal88 said:

---

Relevant to the discussion:

I was making this point the other day: this 👇 is why the so-called "department of government efficiency" is very unlikely to achieve much.

Because when you look at who actually works for the US federal government the IMMENSE majority (about 80%) of people are related to… https://t.co/ZlawMwajU5

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 18, 2024

---

Dollars and cents. If adding to the border infrastructure cuts down on alien encounters/illegal admissions and saves us a ton of money on that, then it will be worth it. I believe the military should be involved in protecting our borders. It's literally their job and a lot better use of their time then sitting in Syria. Our military usage really should be this simple. Protect our borders and people. Protect our allies. Anything outside of that vision is a waste of lives and treasure. Navy and Space Force obviously have different objectives, protecting sea ways, and SF keeping us ahead technologically so that we aren't threatened. Carry a big stick and all.

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

---

Are you childless, that you don't care what type of country gets passed down to them?

One cannot "overspend our national budget forever". It doesn't work that way. Eventually, nobody buys your bonds. Hyperinflation. Dollar worthless.

---

I can assure you that a lot of the folks supporting DOGE are not childless and certainly care what kind of country is passed down to their children. You and them just disagree on what that means.

---

He said: "So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that."

That's suicidal thinking.

So, my comment was not about DoGE assist in fiscal efficiency; you shouldn't have attempted to turn it into such.

82gradDLSdad said:

---

concordtom said:

---

82gradDLSdad said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

I predict Musk gets annoyed at his lack of authority to do anything, Trump's stupidity, and the way that politics work (consensus versus top down governance) versus being an CEO and disappears from Trump's orbit within two years.

---

Correct.

The interest on the debt was around $600 billion, is now over $900 billion and heading to $1.2 Trillion during this current fiscal year as all of that 1% or less treasury debt gets refinanced at 4%+.

Musk has no control over that.
He'll become frustrated and leave within 2 years.
Just like Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn during the first Administration.

---

So basically we will overspend our national budget forever. Nothing wrong with that. I have no idea if Trump can pull this off but Ramaswamy campaigned on this and Musk is already thought of as grossly anti-labor because he runs his companies like this. DOGE idea is brand new. Why don't we wait and see if this works. It reminds me of fatsos who ask, "Why watch what I eat, we are all just going to die anyway".

---

Are you childless, that you don't care what type of country gets passed down to them?

One cannot "overspend our national budget forever". It doesn't work that way. Eventually, nobody buys your bonds. Hyperinflation. Dollar worthless.

---

Sarcastic "nothing wrong with that" statement. I'm with you. Have to start nibbling away at overspending, adjusting taxes, probably up, removing cap on income subject to SS tax, maybe means testing SS. I have 39 year old twins. We use our good fortune to help them but they are pretty self sufficient.

---

Ah, I missed the sarcasm.
Thank you for clarifying. I was hoping that may have been the case.

Quote:

---

If adding to the border infrastructure cuts down on alien …

---

That's another Expense, jacking up the deficit.


You'd make more money for the nation if you granted them legal status so that they paid taxes and increased their economic production rather than under the table and out of work.

Y'all think they drain rather than produce. I believe it's merely racism, cultural fear, because there are studies out there to the contrary.

I bet you don't speak Spanish, am I right?

Would you support a system where folks already here illegally functioned as if citizens for a number of years, paying taxes legally, keeping out of jail/crimes, basically keeping their noses clean for a period of time, and then being granted as full citizens should they accomplish the task?

tequila4kapp said:

---

There's an overarching theme in this thread that mirrors Cal football: we can't fix everything and make it perfect so we shouldn't do anything.

If DOGE eliminates ANY waste and inefficiency or saves ANY money then good. That will probably be more than anyone else has done on these fronts in my lifetime.

---

The advertisements will be cutting waste.
The real action will be in the contracts Elon wins for SpaceX and Tesla, while at the same time burdening his competitors.

I think tRump has grown a bit creeped out by Musk's failure to recognize relationship boundaries and I think he is starting to feel "owned" a bit, you know, like tRump owns his Royale with cheese eating talking pet, Bobby the J Man.

That being the case, methinks tRump dispatched his loyal lap dog, Boris "the Spider" Epshteyn, to ratchet down Elonia a peg or two. The two have been seen arguing on the Mar-a-Lago grounds. Watch for the Spider's life to be turned upside down* if he doesn't back the F off the Emperor of Earth and Mars.

*Like Roddy Ho in Slow Horses ruins people's lives with his elite hacking skills.

oski003 said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Quote:

---

If adding to the border infrastructure cuts down on alien …

---

That's another Expense, jacking up the deficit.


You'd make more money for the nation if you granted them legal status so that they paid taxes and increased their economic production rather than under the table and out of work.

Y'all think they drain rather than produce. I believe it's merely racism, cultural fear, because there are studies out there to the contrary.

I bet you don't speak Spanish, am I right?

Would you support a system where folks already here illegally functioned as if citizens for a number of years, paying taxes legally, keeping out of jail/crimes, basically keeping their noses clean for a period of time, and then being granted as full citizens should they accomplish the task?

---

A lot of illegal immigrants in sanctuary cities don't want to be citizens.

---

Then create a work permit program that forces them into paying into the coffers.

If Rs would offer actual solutions the entire country would get behind it and there would be none of this Sanctuary City stuff.

Rs only like the problem because it's their number one campaign tool.

Ds have put forth many solutions, all rejected by Rs.

Where's your solution? Rounding up and exporting is not only inactionable , same as a stupid Build That Wall motto, but it's economically unfavorable.

tequila4kapp said:

---

There's an overarching theme in this thread that mirrors Cal football: we can't fix everything and make it perfect so we shouldn't do anything.

---

What's not to like about 15 straight conference losing seasons in a row?

Some people, some teams, and even some institutions are life long losers.

Not everyone is "built" to win.

He posts this like it is a good thing. Do the R voters imagine they will not be in that 52.9%+?

harebear said:

---

He posts this like it is a good thing. Do the R voters imagine they will not be in that 52.9%+?

---

I don't know much about economic from a statistics pov but I think our economy is in a precarious situation given how much imbalance there is and how dependent we are on government spending. I don't think any solution comes without pain. We have to get out of this cycle of just run up more debt to keep it 'looking' good.

Annual YoY Percentage Change in Debt/GDP

DiabloWags said:

---

Annual YoY Percentage Change in Debt/GDP

---

I don't know what to make of these. Here's what I do know: I trust Buffett, rightly or wrongly. He doesn't ever seem like a conniving greedy *******. He always used to say the federal debt didn't really matter and then would explain why in language you would understand but I didn't. This past year he finally said he thought it may. He's holding more cash than ever. 325 billion!!! One data point but that's about all I can handle these days when bulls and bears are always debating these things using data that I don't understand. All good. You are not alone with your opinion.

Interest Costs Have Nearly Tripled Since 2020 -2024-11-20

Net Interest Costs:

2020: $345

2021: $352

2022: $476

2023: $659

2024: $882 Billion


Note: Buffet is primarily a value investor. He's not a "growth" investor.
Thus, his large cash position is not surprising. The current forward P/E for the SPX is 22x