movielover said:

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So the Autopen added $8.5 Trillion in new debt, and no new jobs in 4 years, but we did add a proxy war w Russia, blew up NS2 pipelines, and set modern record inflation. Great.

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Inflation is still here due to Trump and his tariffs.
Core PCE at 2.9%

But you always conveniently ignore that due to your Pom Poms hitting you in the head.

Trump's BBB is gonna add $3.5 TRILLION to the debt over the next 10 years.
It wil also increase by 10 million the number of people without health insurance.

But you ignore that too.

You're just not a credible poster.

Either by midnight on Monday or late in the day on Tuesday, 8 Democrat Senators will vote with the needed 52 -- not Rand Paul -- GOP Senators to pass the clean CR already passed by the House.

8 Names -- Just my guesses:
1) John Fetterman -- holder of the Joe Manchin seat.

2)…

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) September 28, 2025

DiabloWags said:

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The Govt will most likely run out of funding at 11:59 pm Tuesday.

Govt will shut down.
That means no Sept. NFP number for Friday.

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in english, if you please?

Non-farm payrolls.

How many Federal workers does President Trump RIF?

Will Hegseth retire some officers this week at his Quantico Generals meeting? Just a pep talk, really? Physical tests? Russia?

movielover said:

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How many Federal workers does President Trump RIF?

Will Hegseth retire some officers this week at his Quantico Generals meeting? Just a pep talk, really? Physical tests? Russia?

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There's never been a need for RIFs in previous shutdowns. It's not like we were so strapped for cash that we couldn't pay hundreds of thousands of people who took the DOGE buyout while they look for other jobs. If Trump RIFs people during the shutdown, it's an excuse, not a necessity. Half of them will likely have to be hired back, just like what has been happening lately.

I believe the DOGE buyouts end next Saturday (end of the current pay period). I wonder if the shutdown will interfere with their final paycheck. Possibly they could proceed the checks in the next couple of days, but I can't recall ever seeing paychecks arriving that early.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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movielover said:

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How many Federal workers does President Trump RIF?

Will Hegseth retire some officers this week at his Quantico Generals meeting? Just a pep talk, really? Physical tests? Russia?

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There's never been a need for RIFs in previous shutdowns. It's not like we were so strapped for cash that we couldn't pay hundreds of thousands of people who took the DOGE buyout while they look for other jobs. If Trump RIFs people during the shutdown, it's an excuse, not a necessity. Half of them will likely have to be hired back, just like what has been happening lately.

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The other thing is that it's not only left-wing people in blue states who have government jobs. Large-scale layoffs would be a major own-goal for the Trump team (which doesn't mean they won't do it).

As some point this might change, but the fact that the tariffs that Trump has put in place have not contributed to meaningful price increases at the consumer level -- that would be revealed by increasing inflation -- shows the enormity of the mark-up on imported goods that has…

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) September 29, 2025

Ummmm no.

When Mr. Trump isn't trying to shame American retailers and producers into eating tariff costs, he claims that these costs will be absorbed by foreign exporters. But the import price index has remained virtually unchanged since the implementation of the tariffs, providing evidence that foreign producers aren't absorbing the costs of the tariffs by cutting prices. Goldman Sachs found that through June American businesses appear to have absorbed 64% of the cost of tariffs so far.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economic-cost-of-trumps-tariff-revival-f9237364?st=Pd81Jf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

dajo9 said:

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sycasey said:

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New: US private-sector businesses lost 32,000 jobs in September, according to new data from payroll company ADP. August’s previously estimated 54,000 payroll gains were downwardly revised to negative 3,000.

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) October 1, 2025

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Since Trump can't govern, I guess this is the main jobs report now

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And it's Biden's fault.

Interestingly enough, we can rely on a lot of PRIVATE SECTOR DATA.
But as you guessed it, much of their data depends on official statistics.

From Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal in their ODD LOTS column:

So there are definitely alternatives out there. The issue is that private data is not necessarily a perfect substitute for official numbers in part because private data often depends on official statistics.

For instance, when it comes to the labor market, today we got ADP data for September showing US companies cut 32,000 jobs. That was very different to economists' collective expectations for a 51,000 increase!

Part of this discrepancy is down to ADP's benchmark revisions, where they changed the weighting of jobs across various industries. These revisions are based on you guessed it official QCEW data published by the BLS that provides a much more comprehensive (but lagged) picture of the US jobs market. (We've talked in this space about QCEW before).

ADP data also shows a narrower slice of the jobs market than payrolls, since only companies that actually use ADP's payrolls services get reflected in the figure. ADP might be the largest provider of payroll services in the US, but it still only accounts for about 10% of the total market. This is one reason why you analysts sometimes dismiss the report as noisy and the gap between ADP and official BLS payrolls figures has become a pretty big talking point in recent years.

All in all, private sector data is not a perfect substitute for the official stuff, as we're about to learn in real-time. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan puts it as follows:

Quote:

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"Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modelling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data."

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That door is now slammed shut.

Zero job growth in four years with previously two million Fake new jobs reported.

A record $12.2 TRILLION in ETF Assets at end of August.

$917 Billion has come in during 2025 came in as of Sept. 29th.

2024 saw $1.1 Trillion come in.

Once every 4 years, they hear the call. pic.twitter.com/EkfHVH2XEF

— Ben Justman🍷 (@BenJustman) October 3, 2025

Q4 is here and liquidity is coming along with lower interest rates.

OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 bpd

Group has upped output targets by over 2.7 million bpd this year

Shift in policy designed to regain market share from rivals such as U.S. shale producers

Saudis oil cost is less than $10 a barrel.
But they need $92 a barrel to balance their budget.

Commerce Department's report that U.S. companies signed nearly $170B in contracts abroad during President Donald Trump's first nine months and a surge expected to support 600,000 American jobs.

DiabloWags said:

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Americans spending picked up in the last 3 months of 2024 to a 4.2% annual rate of increase, the strongest pace in almost two years and an acceleration from the preceding quarter's already robust 3.7%

And make no mistake, spending has been growing faster than incomes owing to consumer's surging wealth.

In other words, the economy is a reflection of the stock market,vand not the other way around.

An important concept as we move through 2025.

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What you're seeing, I believe, is that the USD has lost much of its purchasing power over the last year. Consumers are spending more USD, but those USD are worth substantially less, and the value that they receive for that increased spending is actually the same, or less.

Throughout much of our history, you can see that the purchasing power of 1 oz of gold remains fairly constant. For the last 200+ years, an ounce of gold will purchase a nice, custom-tailored 3-piece suit.

That said, the price of gold, in USD, has doubled over the last two years. So, relative to gold, the USD has lost half of its purchasing power.

I don't think that the USD has lost half of its purchasing power at the grocery store, but if you look at the price increases in food, and what you get at the store for $100, you don't get nearly as much.

With the rampant USD-printing that's happening now, and will be happening in the coming months, I think it's misguided to measure prosperity in USD. Far better to measure prosperity in terms of purchasing power, and quality of life.

DiabloWags said:

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OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 bpd

Group has upped output targets by over 2.7 million bpd this year

Shift in policy designed to regain market share from rivals such as U.S. shale producers

Saudis oil cost is less than $10 a barrel.
But they need $92 a barrel to balance their budget.

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Yep. They're putting their competitors in Texassistan out of business, and killing the TX economy. The layoffs in the oil industry are just starting.

The Texas oil folks need $80/bbl oil to stay in business. But with the world-wide economic slowdown, that ain't happening.

DiabloWags said:

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OPEC+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 bpd

Group has upped output targets by over 2.7 million bpd this year

Shift in policy designed to regain market share from rivals such as U.S. shale producers

Saudis oil cost is less than $10 a barrel.
But they need $92 a barrel to balance their budget.

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The agreement authoritarian has with his authoritarian allies in Saudia Arabia is that they increase global oil supply for him and contract it if Dems are in charge. So Trump is having his friends flood the market with oil, causing turmoil for the U.S. oil industry. This is what the U.S. oil industry voted for.