Anarchistbear said:
In order to get Mahmdamu's proposals passed he needs support and votes from a more conservative state house, so I don't think many billionaires will flee. Some of it will pass if there is political pressure to do so. New York City is a flashpoint between income inequality and democracy
That isn't exactly accurate. Nobody told the Charlatan there's no such thing as Santa Claus. The Charlatan needs permission for the "millionaire and corporate tax increase" which as you point out may not be granted or granted in full. The governor has expressed steadfast opposition to hiking taxes on high-income earners. She will be facing reelection next year too, just as the Charlatan would need her blessing to begin accomplishing his goals during his first year in office. He says that will add $10 Billion dollars (this also includes raising some fees, better parking enforcement, etc.) though with the ongoing flight of financial businesses, no one really expects that much money. Just for the record, de Basio's attempt to raise the taxes was thwarted by then Gov. Cuomo telling him pound sand. Politico says the City is losing 1,000 private sector jobs per month this year (they have an internal City study), which should massively increase as the Charlatan taxes and spends. Most of the city's biggest employers and top wage earners (at least on the financial services area) will not benefit from the proposed Trump tax cuts because of how their businesses are structured. The idea that he would net raise an additional $10 billion is fantasy because those taxpayers and the jobs that they provide would be moving out faster than the Charlatan could collect.
BUT: the Charlatan ALSO has a Bernie Sanders issue about math:
Just to point out some of the issues:
1) Free child care up tp five years old. So this gets to how the increase in Billionaire income taxes gets used. For a sense of scale, de Blasio's Pre-K plan was priced at less than $500 million annually when the funding was included in the state budget. The Charlatan is looking to raise 20 times that sum, almost all through tax hikes., assuming he really gets the approximate $10 billion authorization from the State. THERE AIN'T NO TAX INCREASES LEFT FOR ANYTHING ELSE SPORTS FANS. And the Charlatan readily admits this, but says he can get funding for the other programs from Albany.
2) Free City Bus Fares. The Charlatan would have to pay off $Billions in bonds because the MTA bondholders to have a right not have the revenues from fares impaired, which are pledged to repay the bonds. Clearly this charlatan has no clue how the City funds its operations. He also will need state approval to change bus fares. Setting aside the legal issues for the moment, where doers the Charlatan get the money to actually run the buses and pay the employees of the already cash strapped MTA? How may $Billions does all the cost.
2) City owned grocery stores. This is an incredibly stupid idea that is not thought out, though there are some underserved areas that might be helped. Opening municipal groceries would not address the underlying forces driving grocery store closures in parts of the city (namely, crime and poverty), but at least provide a location for groceries to be purchased. The problem is that the Charlatan wants to give the food away at a reduced price to everyone. It was the rampant shoplifting of recent years that led to mass retail closures in the first place, so the question is won't the muni stores have the same problem? Private grocery chains aren't exactly price gouging when net profits typically average a razor-thin 1 percent to 2 percent and are competitive with not for profit cooperatives. So how exactly does all this bureaucracy, real estate acquisition and construction get funded, a work force established, supply chains developed, warehouses, etc. and who pays for it? The Charlatan assumes that he knows the problem (corporate greed). But since grocery stores aren't making large profits, his plan is unlikely to deliver meaningfully cheaper goods, unless there is massive subsidization, and where does the Charlatan get the money for that? The Charlatan has no understanding of scaling, and the higher cost of food is a national problem. The result would be a poorly run, taxpayer-funded grocery store (where does that money come from again? ) that will have little impact on the high cost of living.
4) New housing and other infrastructure. The Charlatan is proposing to more than triple the $30 billion dedicated to housing in the hopes of, in turn, tripling the city's production of affordable homes. Poltico says a review of his proposals found Mamdani has likely underestimated the cost of his housing construction and school rehab plans by tens of billions of dollars, and the amble time needed for development means he is not breaking ground during his first term. Welcome to development in the NIMBY big city. The Charlatan sounds exactly like the LA mayor who so far has basically developed less that 25 units in her tenure in LA despite imposing the "mIllionaire tax on property sales for housing (she now is considering eliminate or abating the tax due to falling revenues in a frozen LA real estate market). The Charlatan already is set to borrow around $173 billion over the next 10 years to finance major infrastructure projects like the construction of four new jail facilities. But there is no room in the State debt limit to do that so he the Charlatan would have to get other projects outside NYC to be canceled. Good luck with that. And his pledge to build with union labor would drive up construction expenses even more. He also has promised new green construction projects of unknown amounts and with no clear source of funding. No one can even estimate the cost of this, because the Charlatan can't provide any meaningful scope pf work of what he intends to do, because he doesn't know what to do.
BTW, to set forth how really clueless the Charlatan really is per my AI:
New York City is projected to face significant budget deficits in the coming years, with estimates indicating a gap to $7 billion in 2025. This situation is attributed to overspending, rising costs associated with asylum seekers, and the expiration of federal pandemic support. Maybe somebody should explain how the capital markets work to the Charlatan. If he actually gets to issue the bond levels he wants, the bonds will spiraling to a junk bond rating and cost a lot more that he realizes.
As for the State
NY's budget gaps expected to balloon to $36B by 2027: comptrollerAs for the Governor:
I'm not raising income taxes," Hochul said in March, citing a desire to stem an exodus of the wealthy to lower-tax states. "I will cut income taxes instead. That's how I'm going to keep people here." Indeed, the Governor has refused to endorse the Charlatan presently.
I get that young, unsophisticated voters in a Democratic primary like big ideas, but the general election will bring out a different voter. There is no Santa Clause awaiting them.