dimitrig said:
BarcaBear said:
dimitrig said:
BarcaBear said:
golden sloth said:
sycasey said:
Returning to unsubstantiated Twitter rumors, but this guy has an interesting scenario for FSU and Clemson leaving earlier. No idea if the money actually makes sense.
I know it is speculation, but I would be very irritated if the ACC adds Big-XII schools at a full share while Cal is still only receiving a partial share.
First, this guy does not know the math. Maryland jumping does NOT give FSU and Clemson the framework for leaving. Maryland left at the tail end of an expiring contract. The GoR penalty for leaving the ACC is average annual revenue multiplied by remaining years left in the contract. If they leave by 2026, then they owe $400 million. If they jump, then they don't break even until 2031. The B1G contract expires in 2030, so that points to them leaving just in time to join the new B1G contract, not before.
Second, something to keep in mind about the ability of the ACC to survive...the ACC agreement gives SMU a full vote by July 1, 2024, and Cal and Stanford each have voting power starting August 2, 2024.
If FSU and Clemson and UNC leave, then the ACC may create a West Coast pod and pick up OSU and Washington St. to replace them. And if Utah and the Arizona schools really don't want to be in the Big XII, then they could potentially be brought in.
But...the problem is the ACC ESPN contract goes all the way through 2036. Does anybody see ESPN agreeing to renegotiate a contract? Maybe if ESPN's parent company gets Apple to agree to become a partner and take over ESPN.
sidenote: is anyone thinking about a Big XII merger with ACC? it would create a lot of negotiating power.
Pac-12 should have merged with the ACC but apparently USC would not be happy in the same way Clemson and FSU are not happy.
Could the remaining Pac-10 members have done so? Maybe but with Oregon and Washington in the Big10 it seems they also would have been unhappy in the ACC.
All of which is to say that the former Pac-12 didn't have the juice so why would the dregs of the Pac-12 and Big-12 have any negotiating power?
ignore the griping of teams in the past, because that is not relevant to this scenario.
Look up all the relevant media markets across all time zones.
if subscriber count is what it all comes down to, then that many schools would have considerable negotiating power. Between the two conferences and a handful of other teams...that would be about a third of all college football teams.
consider this...the juggernaut conferences can't just play with themselves, they need OOC games in order to bolster their claims to winning records.
All that really matters is if anyone will watch the games.
I would argue that:
1. Wide swaths of the country are not served by professional teams and that seems just fine. The goal isn't to cover the most territory but to have the most valuable territory and the most valuable brands.
2. I don't think OOC games are really all that necessary any more than MLB teams needs to play against AAA teams.
Now, there is not an exact parallel between professional sports and college sports but that is where this is headed. I think a lot of teams will fade into irrelevance. Only the top 25 or 30 will be playing at the highest level versus 65 right now.
1) fine? s you point out comparing pro teams to college football is a faulty analogy. College football has a ready made fan base for each school. Those school connections are enough to make vast majority of sports fans not really care about a lot of other teams except for their own rivals and their own conferences. not many people ar invested in watching Ole Miss play Stanford if they don't have a connection to the schools?
linear tv models don't have enough coverage, and they ignore a lot of football, which is why streaming stepped in. Facebook livestreams college football games. Apple wants to move into college football. The streaming giants want content more than anything, content that drives subscriptions. They aren't going to overpay like linear tv does. we know direct to consumer streaming is going to pay less, but they aren't going to pass on smaller markets just because they wish they had the top markets.
2) on the contrary, OOC games are valuable given the playoffs, and even moreso given the coming restructuring of the playoffs. Current payouts for playoffs are (iirc) $70 million, and that number should triple easily. Getting more teams ranked higher is the goal for each conference to maximize income.
A league that bashes itself and gives its top teams L's means that their rankings will get hurt.
SEC and B1G would like to get as many teams ranked to qualify for the playoffs. Nobody wants to watch the MLS where damn near everybody qualifies for the playoffs. Folks want to see teams competing who have some claim to being the top teams, and their record is college football sells the playoffs.
This is moving toward more pro sports model, but it isn't going to eradicate college connections. I mean, have you seen how poorly backed semi-pro leagues are? Why does Triple A or G-League not have viewership of the top pro league? College football has to maintain its connections to universities otherwise they risk losing even more viewers because nobody wants to watch semi-pro teams on TV, and much less subscribe to premium streaming services to watch semi-pro sports.