Cal84 said:

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>There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated

It's clear the virus exists in the southern half of Vietnam. But underreporting of cases or even deaths is hardly evidence of data manipulation. Particularly in less developed countries, testing is haphazard at best. Here in the US, the richest country in the world, we probably only detect half the infections. Wouldn't be at all surprising in Vietnam if they only detected 10% of the cases. And as people are just discovering here in the US, underreporting of deaths is also systemic.

---

Vietnam has the second lowest positive per test outcome in the world. North Korea is worse (with 0 positives and 709 total tests given). Vietnam does have relatively low testing (26th worst country), but is on par with Taiwan and double Japan's. Vietnam has 2% the positive results of Germany, and 1% the positive results of the US.

I think the evidence that authoritarian regimes are nearly universally showing "better" death and infection rates compared to democracies is a sign that manipulation is possible, if not likely, or very likely. But, there are other explanations, as you point out.

Poverty, extremely poor heath systems, poor use of tests, ease of population control to stop the spread, very good health systems, very good use of tests, wealth, etc. probably all play a roll.

I still think manipulation of the data or manipulation of the data collection is most likely given the totality of evidence. I certainly do think that more liberal countries are more susceptible to pandemics, though. I would still lean towards manipulation given the stark contrast, vs a taper or curve of any kind.

Big C said:

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Cal84 said:

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>There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated

It's clear the virus exists in the southern half of Vietnam. But underreporting of cases or even deaths is hardly evidence of data manipulation. Particularly in less developed countries, testing is haphazard at best. Here in the US, the richest country in the world, we probably only detect half the infections. Wouldn't be at all surprising in Vietnam if they only detected 10% of the cases. And as people are just discovering here in the US, underreporting of deaths is also systemic.

---

I think we are detecting far less than half the COVID-19 infections and that's not even counting the asymptomatic ones. 5-10 times that many must be around, probably even more.

Statistically, you can multiply the number of deaths by 100 to 200 to get a more accurate infection count. And then there are the deaths that don't even get counted as COVID.

Anecdotally, I have Kaiser and am still at the same point I was a month ago. If I feel like I have it, I can call their swamped phone number (good luck getting through). If I have the symptoms, I will be told to rest and isolate, unless I feel I need hospitalization. If I need to go in, they MIGHT give me a test.

My 7 yr old daughter has developed a cough. My wife tried to call and was on hold for a while, then gave up. I was like, "Why bother unless she has a fever for a couple of days? Why even bother?"

---

I am not sure where he would come up with such a strange number.


I would estimate NY has 6 million infections. Probably another 6 million more in the US, unless the mortality is is MUCH higher than suspected (ie 5%+). The math isnt super complicated.

If we were counting half of our infected, our true mortality would be roughly 6-10%. I am not convinced its that high.

Watched the Berkeley "Conversations-COVID-19" discussion this afternoon with the Chancellor and Vice Chancellor and learned (as expected) that any decision on football this fall will be made by the NCAA and P-5 conferences and not individual schools.

Also learned that grades this semester are going to be Pass / No Pass They said letter grades in this environment would be so inconsistent that they would be basically meaningless. They didn't think that grades earned this semester will have an impact on grade point averages for graduate school applications as everyone will be in the same boat. This has got to be beneficial to our current players who need, but may not have normal access to, academic support, unless they needed a high letter grade to remain eligible. I got the impression that you could request a letter grade if you wished.

As they are also not requiring ACT scores for new undergrad admissions, this situation provides a unique opportunity for staff to offer and land recruits that they think can handle Cal's academic challenges but that may not yet have an ACT score at the level normally required. This may not apply to many recruits, but I think we have missed on some players in the past because of their low-ish ACT scores.

LunchTime said:

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Cal84 said:

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>There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated

It's clear the virus exists in the southern half of Vietnam. But underreporting of cases or even deaths is hardly evidence of data manipulation. Particularly in less developed countries, testing is haphazard at best. Here in the US, the richest country in the world, we probably only detect half the infections. Wouldn't be at all surprising in Vietnam if they only detected 10% of the cases. And as people are just discovering here in the US, underreporting of deaths is also systemic.

---

Vietnam has the second lowest positive per test outcome in the world. North Korea is worse (with 0 positives and 709 total tests given). Vietnam does have relatively low testing (26th worst country), but is on par with Taiwan and double Japan's. Vietnam has 2% the positive results of Germany, and 1% the positive results of the US.

I think the evidence that authoritarian regimes are nearly universally showing "better" death and infection rates compared to democracies is a sign that manipulation is possible, if not likely, or very likely. But, there are other explanations, as you point out.

Poverty, extremely poor heath systems, poor use of tests, ease of population control to stop the spread, very good health systems, very good use of tests, wealth, etc. probably all play a roll.

I still think manipulation of the data or manipulation of the data collection is most likely given the totality of evidence. I certainly do think that more liberal countries are more susceptible to pandemics, though. I would still lean towards manipulation given the stark contrast, vs a taper or curve of any kind.

---

Speaking of the extent of virus in Vietnam, here's a report that the carrier Theodore Roosevelt stopped at Da Nang for four days on March 5, where it is suspected the sailors picked up the virus.

Quote:

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The investigation will not examine why the Roosevelt, and its nearly 5,000 crew members, made a long-scheduled, four-day port call in Da Nang, Vietnam, beginning on March 5, despite reported cases of coronavirus in the country.

The top U.S. military officer in Pacific, Adm. Philip S. Davidson, ordered the visit to proceed as a show of American military might in a region increasingly worried about China's growing territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Navy and Pentagon officials have since defended the decision, saying there were only a handful of reported coronavirus cases, mostly in the northern part of the country, at the time the Roosevelt pulled in. Navy officials publicly say they are not sure how the virus got aboard the ship, but privately acknowledge that it almost certainly happened during the port call.

---

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/navy-may-reinstate-fired-captain-to-command-of-roosevelt/ar-BB12GB7h

You can bet your butt Captain Crozier tried going uo the chain of command before alerting other people.

It sounds like Fall 2020 football ain't happening (at least in CA). Concerts and sporting events in front of crowds aren't coming back for a very long time - we'll all need to come to terms with this (again, at least in CA).

oskidunker said:

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You can bet your butt Captain Crozier tried going uo the chain of command before alerting other people.

---

The reports I read said he did, starting with the Admiral aboard the TR.

A big sticking point, apparently, was that the Captain wanted to dump 5000 people into Guam immediately. The Navy wanted to assess the options, including Japan and San Diego where more assets were available.

A couple weeks after leaving Vietnam, they shut down communications, and to get around OPSEC, he sent an unsecured email.

I understand the desire to absolve him because he did the right thing, but jumping the chain of command in the military is almost always a significant sin. Doing it as a Captain of a Carrier, and it getting out, is a pretty big deal.

That said, he was relieved, apparently, because the Secretary of the Navy *thought* Trump would be irate and **** can him if he didnt ****can the Captain. And that's where leadership breaks down. Obviously. An unsteady hand in the White House causing wild ass guesses on how to enforce order, or what order even is.

LunchTime said:

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oskidunker said:

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You can bet your butt Captain Crozier tried going uo the chain of command before alerting other people.

---

The reports I read said he did, starting with the Admiral aboard the TR.

A big sticking point, apparently, was that the Captain wanted to dump 5000 people into Guam immediately. The Navy wanted to assess the options, including Japan and San Diego where more assets were available.

A couple weeks after leaving Vietnam, they shut down communications, and to get around OPSEC, he sent an unsecured email.

I understand the desire to absolve him because he did the right thing, but jumping the chain of command in the military is almost always a significant sin. Doing it as a Captain of a Carrier, and it getting out, is a pretty big deal.

That said, he was relieved, apparently, because the Secretary of the Navy *thought* Trump would be irate and **** can him if he didnt ****can the Captain. And that's where leadership breaks down. Obviously. An unsteady hand in the White House causing wild ass guesses on how to enforce order, or what order even is.

---

Having spent two years of my life as an officer in the US Army I got to appreciate how so many officers really had the health and well-being of their troops at heart attack Ben when they had to put those lives in danger.
Reading Captain Crozier's letter it appeared clear to me that his actions were done pretty much as a last resort when he was getting nowhere and felt the lives of his sailors were needlessly at risk.

Was an rotc grad and Army officer. You are right.

LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

Also, turns out that there are almost 1000 infections of COVID on the carrier - but very few show symptoms. They are testing everyone on board, so this is a petri dish of the spread. They are young, fit men for the most part (and women) but are not symptomatic generally. A spread rate of 20% in a short time period. I think at the end of the day, we are going to find that the rate is significantly higher than we expected and the death rate is significantly lower than we expected. But still, significant enough to warrant the shutdown because of the impact on the older and infirm.

Oski87 said:

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LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

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Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

LunchTime said:

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Oski87 said:

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LunchTime said:

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Sebastabear said:

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Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

I read that some currently believe that visiting pilots from other carriers brought the virus onboard. That being said, Vietnam is probably lying about their numbers, too.

LunchTime said:

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Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

Most of the ship disembarked in Da Nang and partied. They were in the hotels, on the beaches, at the bars, at the massage parlors...Vietnam's explosion of cases happened just after the ship departed? That means the virus was already circulating. There are tons of Chinese tourists (5.8 million in 2019) at the coastal resorts in Vietnam. Next is Koreans (4.3 million in 2019).

The fact that most of those testing positive from the ship are asymptomatic means there were likely already infected people on board before April 23 when people were sick enough to be identified. Finally, most "flight operations" on the carrier take off and land on the carrier without ever setting down elsewhere.

I am sure the infection came from the widespread shore leave in Vietnam more than a month after the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak on a cruise that left Japan and made port calls in Hong Kong and both Chan May and Ha Long Bay in Vietnam before returning to Japan with a shipwide outbreak in early February.

Fyght4Cal said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

I read that some currently believe that visiting pilots from other carriers brought the virus onboard. That being said, Vietnam is probably lying about their numbers, too.

---

Fyght4Cal said:

---

Fyght4Cal said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

I read that some currently believe that visiting pilots from other carriers brought the virus onboard. That being said, Vietnam is probably lying about their numbers, too.

---

---

Is this a joke?

Your link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
My link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891

I think being stuck inside is frying my brains.

LunchTime said:

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Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

The incubation period is 14 days - 5 days or less generally until you are symptomatic, and then another 10 days for the virus to run through you and either kill you or be disposed of. That would have ended on the 20th. It could be that there were no symptomatic folks on board and that it did transfer around from the Vietnam contact - but Vietnam says there were not a ton of sick people there, and pilots from other places who actually had the virus landed on the ship. So the question is - should we assume that they were infected by Vietnamese folk, where there was reported very limited Coronavirus in the wild, and that no one showed any symptoms for three weeks - or should we assume it came with the pilots that we know actually had coronavirus and landed on the ship, and people showed symptoms after the normal 5 days.

Oski87 said:

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LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

The incubation period is 14 days - 5 days or less generally until you are symptomatic, and then another 10 days for the virus to run through you and either kill you or be disposed of.

---

Incubation period maximum known is 24 days. 1-14 days (IIRC) is within a normal distribution. Median is 5 days.

TBH, I have no interest in rehashing known data. The point is that getting sick 14-15 days after exposure is absolutely possible.

It is also EXTREMELY possible that someone was infected and a-symptomatic the entire time and passed it to sailors that got sick enough to be tested. We know that is happening widely in the world. With those two pieces of information, I think it is impossible to rule out Vietnam, so there must be missing information that they aren't providing.

Quote:

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or should we assume it came with the pilots that we know actually had coronavirus and landed on the ship, and people showed symptoms after the normal 5 days.

---

Something like this... I have not seen the report on that. Do you have a link? I see it claimed here.

LunchTime said:

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Fyght4Cal said:

---

Fyght4Cal said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

I read that some currently believe that visiting pilots from other carriers brought the virus onboard. That being said, Vietnam is probably lying about their numbers, too.

---

---

Is this a joke?

Your link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
My link:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891

I think being stuck inside is frying my brains.

---

Some of us are visual learners :p But seriously, I totally missed your link. My bad. Let's not put fried brains on the menu.

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

The incubation period is 14 days - 5 days or less generally until you are symptomatic, and then another 10 days for the virus to run through you and either kill you or be disposed of. That would have ended on the 20th. It could be that there were no symptomatic folks on board and that it did transfer around from the Vietnam contact - but Vietnam says there were not a ton of sick people there, and pilots from other places who actually had the virus landed on the ship. So the question is - should we assume that they were infected by Vietnamese folk, where there was reported very limited Coronavirus in the wild, and that no one showed any symptoms for three weeks - or should we assume it came with the pilots that we know actually had coronavirus and landed on the ship, and people showed symptoms after the normal 5 days.

---

All the pilots were in Vietnam for the exercise.

There are over 600 infected sailors here on Guam. 3800 are staying in local hotels, including my boss'
Everyone from the ship is convinced the infection is from Vietnam. The beaches and hotels were filled with Chinese tourists. That is most likely how it spread to Italy too. It looks like the Diamond Princess cruise ship was infected in Vietnam a month before the USS Roosevelt shore leave there, so I don't know why they are pushing this narrative.

Deep state.

The SF Chronicle reports: UC Berkeley's coronavirus dilemma: What will fall semester look like?

Quote:

---

School officials have not yet made a decision about the fall, but students and faculty are bracing for online instruction extending into the new academic year. That would allow for social distancing but raise a variety of other issues.

[...] Panos Papadopoulos, a longtime mechanical engineering professor at Cal and former chair of the Academic Senate, expects school officials to try to implement a "hybrid system" for the fall semester. In this scenario, large-enrollment lecture courses would be taught online and smaller courses, lab sessions and discussion sections would take place in person, while following social-distancing guidelines.

---

SpartanBear20 said:

---

The SF Chronicle reports: UC Berkeley's coronavirus dilemma: What will fall semester look like?

Quote:

---

School officials have not yet made a decision about the fall, but students and faculty are bracing for online instruction extending into the new academic year. That would allow for social distancing but raise a variety of other issues.

[...] Panos Papadopoulos, a longtime mechanical engineering professor at Cal and former chair of the Academic Senate, expects school officials to try to implement a "hybrid system" for the fall semester. In this scenario, large-enrollment lecture courses would be taught online and smaller courses, lab sessions and discussion sections would take place in person, while following social-distancing guidelines.

---

---

I think redesigning student housing protocols will be one of the real challenges.

Cal84 said:

---

>I think redesigning student housing protocols will be one of the real challenges.

Yeah, I don't know how that is gonna work. One of my kids got into the ole' alma mater last month and just tossed in the housing application this week. Who knows what is going to happen...Unit 1/2/3 dorms still have that one big communal bathroom per floor, right?

---

Congrats!

calumnus said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Oski87 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Turns out that the carrier was not infected at Vietnam at all, but from flight crews who landed on the carrier from other locations.

---

Source?

Edit: found a bunch
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uss-theodore-roosevelt-outbreak-is-linked-to-flight-crews-not-vietnam-visit-11586981891
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-not-source-of-covid-19-outbreak-on-us-aircraft-carrier-officials-4085709.html

I am confused how they are ruling out Vietnam though:

Quote:

---

The USS Theodore Roosevelt docked at the Tien Sa Port in Da Nang in central Vietnam on March 5, beginning a five-day visit
[Military officials] do not think the coronavirus outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was a result of the ship's visit to Vietnam, because no crew member appeared to contract the virus until March 24 or March 25

---

Quote:

---

Given the incubation periods observed for the Covid-19 virus, the two-week time frame eliminates the port visit as a source

---

Maybe my math is wrong, but a 5 day period lasts to March 9th? March 9 + 14 days is the 22/23. They got noticed on the 24th/25th?

How does that eliminate anything? The timeline reads like a bad novel. almost perfect. 15th day after leaving port people are showing symptoms of a virus that had a 14 day incubation period?

I didnt have time to read other articles, are they more informative?

---

The incubation period is 14 days - 5 days or less generally until you are symptomatic, and then another 10 days for the virus to run through you and either kill you or be disposed of. That would have ended on the 20th. It could be that there were no symptomatic folks on board and that it did transfer around from the Vietnam contact - but Vietnam says there were not a ton of sick people there, and pilots from other places who actually had the virus landed on the ship. So the question is - should we assume that they were infected by Vietnamese folk, where there was reported very limited Coronavirus in the wild, and that no one showed any symptoms for three weeks - or should we assume it came with the pilots that we know actually had coronavirus and landed on the ship, and people showed symptoms after the normal 5 days.

---

All the pilots were in Vietnam for the exercise.

There are over 600 infected sailors here on Guam. 3800 are staying in local hotels, including my boss'
Everyone from the ship is convinced the infection is from Vietnam. The beaches and hotels were filled with Chinese tourists. That is most likely how it spread to Italy too. It looks like the Diamond Princess cruise ship was infected in Vietnam a month before the USS Roosevelt shore leave there, so I don't know why they are pushing this narrative.

---

So I've heard a couple of interesting rumors about the Roosevelt I probably shouldn't share but I will anyway.

The first has to do with the Navy's medical response. I happen to know a private sector physician in the Navy Reserve. He gets called up to leave town indefinitely. This is right after the Navy Secretary gets fired. My wife asks, Is he going to Guam? The physician's wife says, How did you know? My wife says, truthfully, Ehh, it was just an educated guess, given that the Roosevelt thing is all over the news. So he ships out to San Diego. Almost two weeks later, he's still there. Along with 300 other USN medical personnel. It sounds like they were going to set up a mobile hospital in Guam to care for Roosevelt Covid patients. The interesting part is that the 300 USN medical personnel are staying in a luxury hotel in San Diego. And no one is there but the USN people. And they are stuck in the hotel but can eat and drink whatever they want on the Navy's dime and fraternize with their USN buddies from all over. He's a doc, I forget what rank, but pretty high up there, so he's staying in the Presidential Suite. His private sector employer, a large HMO we all know and love, has to keep paying him to do this, of course, bc it's the military reserves. The wife of course is not too happy about this. The guess here is that the whole group of 300 was supposed to ship out to Guam to staff a field hospital that hasn't been built yet. So they wait. Some, in a Presidential Suite.

The second rumor has to do with the Roosevelt. The sailors who tested negative were sent to hotels on Guam for R&R, on the Navy's dime. Of course the hotels there are all beachside resorts so they are eating and drinking and having a very good time. The sailors who tested positive but aren't sick enough to be in the hospital, however, were all bussed to a gymnasium or sports arena to quarantine. They are sleeping in cots on the gym floor like Katrina refugees. And they are all eating ... MREs! So naturally there is a lot of texting back and forth between the two groups with the hotel denizens rubbing it in big time.

From the Guam Visitor's Bureau:

kad02002 said:

---

Sorry to ask an obvious question - is the fear that this mutates and becomes a much deadlier strain?

---

if that was the fear, it's proved unfounded. the hysteria on here by unscience fear mongers like oaktownbear and others has been amazing. we see the goal lines continue to get moved because clearly public health isn't the issue, something else is.

oskioski said:

---

kad02002 said:

---

Sorry to ask an obvious question - is the fear that this mutates and becomes a much deadlier strain?

---

if that was the fear, it's proved unfounded. the hysteria on here by unscience fear mongers like oaktownbear and others has been amazing. we see the goal lines continue to get moved because clearly public health isn't the issue, something else is.

---

Conspiracy theories much? I don't think the main threat was ever that it could mutate to a deadlier strain, but the obvious (high mortality rate for the vulnerable and potentially overloading the hospitals overall). From my circles, it's the unscientific folks leading with the conspiracy theories. The medical and scientific folks aren't being "fear-mongers", but they're still consistently raising the danger bell and seriousness of COVID-19.

But sure, the whole entire world fabricated this whole pandemic in unison for an agenda...

oskioski said:

---

kad02002 said:

---

Sorry to ask an obvious question - is the fear that this mutates and becomes a much deadlier strain?

---

if that was the fear, it's proved unfounded. the hysteria on here by unscience fear mongers like oaktownbear and others has been amazing. we see the goal lines continue to get moved because clearly public health isn't the issue, something else is.

---

The way this virus spreads, we're damn lucky it's not more deadly than it already is. Let's say that one third of Americans end up getting it and let's say the fatality rate is a very conservative .5%. Well, that's half a million deaths right there.

This thread is a pretty neat bit of recent history: Shows what people were thinking about this "way back" in late February and March. I sure have learned a lot since then.

Sports return stalked by coronavirus - Axios


https://www.axios.com/sports-return-coronavirus-baseball-edd5661f-5fd7-4895-ac94-6e922fc12793.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top