Sanford. Not Stanfurd.

CalFan777 said:

---

At least some Bears are benefiting from the lockdown.

---

Check out the smile on the guy's face.

LunchTime said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Big C said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Big C said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

I appreciate all the informative posts being made here. I have learned more here than from all the talking heads.

---

Me too. Two further questions:

Bigger picture: Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

Smaller picture: So, we're supposed to wear masks now? Are there any places that actually have them for sale?

---

small picture.

Yes. But you cant get the kind of masks you are thinking. If you can find them, donate them to a hospital.

Use 100% cotton for a home made mask. A cut or folded tshirt with shoe laces will work.

That stops around 50% of the size particulate that an N95 will stop 95% of. In other words, its effective. What they said during the fires about needing N95 was misleading. Cotton is less effective but still vastly better than nothing, and more comfortable.

Wash and dry at night.



I have county level data. I'll look at it tonight.

---

I just mean the non-N95 masks that everybody's wearing all of a sudden. I don't want to make my own. I want to buy a dozen, so I can throw them in the wash when I come home. And I want them to look cool. But not TOO cool (like I was trying to look cool).

The kind that were probably easy to buy two months ago and will be easy to buy two months from now.

Hmmm... Cal masks. Is somebody going to jump on this?

---

Looking at LA county, it looks like reporting issues, maybe a change in testing availability. The change day to day is inconsistent. I dont think we can know if there is or is not a surge in cases. There is a surge in confirmed cases.

Deaths is similarly inconsistent. It may be that they are not reporting consistently, and stacking numbers into "reporting days" or there may be a surge.

Of course, either way, behavior shouldn't change.

---

The numbers in LA have been consistently different from all the other California counties, and the trajectory seems different as well. Hopefully that turns quickly.

---

How do you mean "Consistently different"

The question is:

Quote:

---

Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

---

* LA in terms of cases, growth has slowed to 13% per day from 19% last week, moving average (3 day).
* LA in terms of deaths LA is holding steady at about 18%


I think why he is asking is because there were 28 new deaths on the day he asked, but only a combined 13 the two days before that. Three days before he asked there were 24. That is a scary jump if you are unfamiliar with the data. But LA has shown several times that deaths are stacked on a 3 day period, every three days since 3/23.

NO, there is not evidence of a spike. A low enough number of people are dying in LA that the minor differences in when they die and how they die can cause very large spikes in data day-to-day. My comment has shown to



Again, I am not going off of feeling or conformation bias. It is what it is.

I agree that LA is growing while the rest of the state is pulling back some. But, I dont see an increase in growth over time. I see a significant decrease in growth over time.



FWIW the evidence of stacking on every third day (data collection and reporting issue evidence).
3/22+21 3 deaths, 3/23 3 deaths
3/24+25 5 deaths, 3/26 8 deaths
3/27+28 11 deaths, 3/29 5 deaths (outlier)
3/30+31 17 deaths, 4/1 24 deaths
4/2+3 13 deaths, 4/4 28 deaths
4/5+6 so far 13 deaths.

---

Different was meant only as a relative to other California areas. Let us all hope the decreases there hold up.

bearsandgiants said:

---

Gotta hand it to a clever somebody at the Furd on this one. Dr. Who fans will love.

https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/fuziel/sandford_police_using_a_dalek_to_order_people_to/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

---

I think you have the wrong country there, mate.

CalFan777 said:

---

At least some Bears are benefiting from the lockdown.

---

I have a "Go Bears Go" T-shirt from the late 80s/early 90s that looks remarkably similar. The designer obviously knew what he was doing.

KenBurnski said:

---

Sanford. Not Stanfurd.

---

Thank God. I was really depressed thinking someone from the Furd was that clever. My faith is restored.

Fyght4Cal said:

---

Big C said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

I appreciate all the informative posts being made here. I have learned more here than from all the talking heads.

---

Me too. Two further questions:

Bigger picture: Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

Smaller picture: So, we're supposed to wear masks now? Are there any places that actually have them for sale?

---

I'm wearing the one I bought at Oakland's Cole Hardware before we beat #8 WSU in the 2017 Smoke Bowl.

---

Nice. Thank god for the fires

OdontoBear66 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

OdontoBear66 said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Big C said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Big C said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

I appreciate all the informative posts being made here. I have learned more here than from all the talking heads.

---

Me too. Two further questions:

Bigger picture: Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

Smaller picture: So, we're supposed to wear masks now? Are there any places that actually have them for sale?

---

small picture.

Yes. But you cant get the kind of masks you are thinking. If you can find them, donate them to a hospital.

Use 100% cotton for a home made mask. A cut or folded tshirt with shoe laces will work.

That stops around 50% of the size particulate that an N95 will stop 95% of. In other words, its effective. What they said during the fires about needing N95 was misleading. Cotton is less effective but still vastly better than nothing, and more comfortable.

Wash and dry at night.



I have county level data. I'll look at it tonight.

---

I just mean the non-N95 masks that everybody's wearing all of a sudden. I don't want to make my own. I want to buy a dozen, so I can throw them in the wash when I come home. And I want them to look cool. But not TOO cool (like I was trying to look cool).

The kind that were probably easy to buy two months ago and will be easy to buy two months from now.

Hmmm... Cal masks. Is somebody going to jump on this?

---

Looking at LA county, it looks like reporting issues, maybe a change in testing availability. The change day to day is inconsistent. I dont think we can know if there is or is not a surge in cases. There is a surge in confirmed cases.

Deaths is similarly inconsistent. It may be that they are not reporting consistently, and stacking numbers into "reporting days" or there may be a surge.

Of course, either way, behavior shouldn't change.

---

The numbers in LA have been consistently different from all the other California counties, and the trajectory seems different as well. Hopefully that turns quickly.

---

How do you mean "Consistently different"

The question is:

Quote:

---

Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

---

* LA in terms of cases, growth has slowed to 13% per day from 19% last week, moving average (3 day).
* LA in terms of deaths LA is holding steady at about 18%


I think why he is asking is because there were 28 new deaths on the day he asked, but only a combined 13 the two days before that. Three days before he asked there were 24. That is a scary jump if you are unfamiliar with the data. But LA has shown several times that deaths are stacked on a 3 day period, every three days since 3/23.

NO, there is not evidence of a spike. A low enough number of people are dying in LA that the minor differences in when they die and how they die can cause very large spikes in data day-to-day. My comment has shown to



Again, I am not going off of feeling or conformation bias. It is what it is.

I agree that LA is growing while the rest of the state is pulling back some. But, I dont see an increase in growth over time. I see a significant decrease in growth over time.



FWIW the evidence of stacking on every third day (data collection and reporting issue evidence).
3/22+21 3 deaths, 3/23 3 deaths
3/24+25 5 deaths, 3/26 8 deaths
3/27+28 11 deaths, 3/29 5 deaths (outlier)
3/30+31 17 deaths, 4/1 24 deaths
4/2+3 13 deaths, 4/4 28 deaths
4/5+6 so far 13 deaths.

---

Different was meant only as a relative to other California areas. Let us all hope the decreases there hold up.

---

Yes.

I also hope that we can maintain the momentum of staying at home and sheltering in place as projections come off the worst case scenarios. I like that Newsom is out in front that this is successful, but not permanent and we can screw it up quickly.

So far I am very pleased with basically everything Newsom has done, from negotiating a portion of the national stockpile rather than demanding 4x what is in the stockpile, to ensuring all people in California are given a half way chance to shelter, to allowing counties to lead the way, to returning equipment projections say we wont need, to emphasizing a tentative success, all while being super calming and not pointing the finger (easier to do when your plan is successful).

Sorry for the aside. Hopefully LA continues to fall in growth rate and stabilizes before the numbers are too large.

Fyght4Cal said:

---

Big C said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

I appreciate all the informative posts being made here. I have learned more here than from all the talking heads.

---

Me too. Two further questions:

Bigger picture: Does it seem like the Los Angeles area is spiking this weekend? (Stay safe down there!)

Smaller picture: So, we're supposed to wear masks now? Are there any places that actually have them for sale?

---

I'm wearing the one I bought at Oakland's Cole Hardware before we beat #8 WSU in the 2017 Smoke Bowl.

---

Great looking mask.

Thanks!

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/mayor-garcetti-provides-updates-on-coronvirus-outbreak/2341786/

LA testing anyone now.

TheSouseFamily said:

---

---

Bill Shaikin, Cal'85, Daily Cal, KALX sports alum

It took Nate a week, but he came around to the obvious. Still pretty disappointed that he put out that very soft information.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

5 football season scenarios

also need to worry about basketball, but I can see that it would be easier to move to after thanksgiving, shorten the season and run till the end of the school year like the spring sports

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2020/04/canzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.oregonlive.com%2fsports%2f2020%2f04%2fcanzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-pac-12-hotline-nl

HoopDreams said:

---

5 football season scenarios

also need to worry about basketball, but I can see that it would be easier to move to after thanksgiving, shorten the season and run till the end of the school year like the spring sports

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2020/04/canzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.oregonlive.com%2fsports%2f2020%2f04%2fcanzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-pac-12-hotline-nl

---

What's the bailout needed to forego the season?

It seems like option 2021? Seems like $8 billion less 1b for travel. Just for FBS football.

Can they secure $7 billion in bailouts from the states? How does a governor sell that? OTOH $7billion from the feds sounds like a joke now, but I am sure they would turn it into some kind of political hot potato, too.

Honestly, if they cant have a 2020 season, I would guess 90% chance of a bailout, and 10% an opportunity for the haters to just end the entire thing, even if it includes a bailout of fixed asset and contracts (like CMS and coaches salaries). What better time to end the charade as they see it. Money to the people and education over "NFL farm teams that lose money."

The numbers without revenue are just so gigantic compared to the other times college sports seasons were threatened.

https://www.businessinsider.com/colleges-sports-coaches-cost-vs-athletic-scholarships-2019-3

LunchTime said:

---

HoopDreams said:

---

5 football season scenarios

also need to worry about basketball, but I can see that it would be easier to move to after thanksgiving, shorten the season and run till the end of the school year like the spring sports

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2020/04/canzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.oregonlive.com%2fsports%2f2020%2f04%2fcanzano-college-football-coronavirus-contingency-plans-get-creative.html&utm_campaign=bang-mult-nl-pac-12-hotline-nl

---

What's the bailout needed to forego the season?

It seems like option 2021? Seems like $8 billion less 1b for travel. Just for FBS football.

Can they secure $7 billion in bailouts from the states? How does a governor sell that? OTOH $7billion from the feds sounds like a joke now, but I am sure they would turn it into some kind of political hot potato, too.

Honestly, if they cant have a 2020 season, I would guess 90% chance of a bailout, and 10% an opportunity for the haters to just end the entire thing, even if it includes a bailout of fixed asset and contracts (like CMS and coaches salaries). What better time to end the charade as they see it. Money to the people and education over "NFL farm teams that lose money."

The numbers without revenue are just so gigantic compared to the other times college sports seasons were threatened.

https://www.businessinsider.com/colleges-sports-coaches-cost-vs-athletic-scholarships-2019-3

---

interesting. first time I've seen anything on these types of costs in total.

hard to say if it capture all costs for athletics, including marketing costs, overhead charges from university, etc

It would be interesting to see these stats for only Power 5 teams so it would be more comparable

If one point is coaches are paid too high, I agree and I'm not saying players shouldn't be paid.

I just can't figure how there can will be any competitive balance without restrictions that pro teams have, such as salary caps, etc.

Add immediate eligibility that will pass in May, which results in annual free agency for every player (NBA players can't move every year due to their negotiated contracts).

Market forces will favor powerhouse schools even more than today. Cal would have a bigger disadvantage competing with teams like Oregon with their Nike endorsements, transfer advantages, low academic admissions requirements, etc.

Can't see how Cal competes in that world

I've got zero confidence in a vaccine even by 2021. I think its stick to the schedule but with mask requirements for fans or no fans at all. And teams might need a modified face shield mask. Teams get tested every week and infected teams forfeit? So many variables! Funny if they proceed without fans how we'd still get together in groups to watch it. Can you imagine what will happen with HS football? How can you recruit? Crazy times.

>Market forces will favor powerhouse schools even more than today. Cal would have a bigger disadvantage competing with teams like Oregon with their Nike endorsements, transfer advantages, low academic admissions requirements, etc.

Which is why the introduction of a great randomizing non-market force actually favors non-established teams, like Cal. Just think - every team in the nation is just a single coronavirus case (to the HC) away from being discombobulated. Every team in the nation is just a cluster burst transmission away from being a pariah to recruits. Now sure, it could be Cal that is one that it happens to. But objectively, who do you think is more likely to pick up the virus community transmission style - a kid in Berkeley or a kid in Georgia (where the per capita infection rate is 60% higher than in CA, and yet to peak).

>I think its stick to the schedule but with mask requirements for fans or no fans at all.
As discussed in another thread, zero chance they play in front of empty stadiums. The internal contradiction of admitting there aren't enough testing kits for the general public and utilizing thousands of them for entertainment sports is too great.

Lets keep spinning it out.....cause it is the only thing going with no sports on TV......

1) Will the SEC cancel? I am not sure the P5 holds together if the SEC balks at cancelling. And they might. Huge financial implications for P12 for sure but SEC football is a key economic driver for a TON of those semi-rural economies. Doing away with it is depression level impacts.

2) Will schools rethink? You have to think that Cal would not be alone with saying 'you know - there is an exit ramp here." Eat the debt and refinance at ultra low bonds. Slash expenses. Revert to D2/lower level, etc. etc. Huge implications for Title IX but I would point out - SDSU operates in a way that is far less "big time" and still fields women's teams.

Not agreeing with that but it is an interesting question if what you are looking at is 7 billion dollar impact on higher eds P&L....along with a ton of other negative impacts (they just ate a TON on Spring Semester Housing all over the country....and I wouldn't be surprised to see fall Frosh delay a year or at least a semester until clarity....and then add in the hit to endowments and earnings.

I saw some headlines:
1. Women leaders doing better against COVID19
2. Vietnam doing better than everyone despite sharing a border with China
3. The US has the most infections/deaths of any country.

This is data through the 12th

1. Countries with a female head of state are doing measurably better with deaths, but I am not sure it is statistically significant. I wouldnt claim women were incompetent if the tables were turned. But it is true they have lower per capita deaths (again, cases can be misleading).


2. Vietnam, along with a large list of other countries, is doing (apparently) remarkably well. I was curious about that, so I took the Democracy Index on the hunch that there would be a ramp from authoritarian to "Full Democracy." I dont have data on the why (maybe they can lock down their people better, maybe they can suppress reporting better, maybe they have better care, etc). I was just curious to see if it might exist. It does, and wildly so. Way more pronounced than I expected.
(China, 2.26, Vietnam, 3.08, US 7.96, Iran -the outlier- 2.38)


3. I indexed the EU to the US (the EU led the US in the outbreak by about 10 days). The US is wildly above the EU in cases (the EU has variable testing, like the US, but in general they see ~10% positives. New York sees 50% positives, pointing a strong difference in testing methodology (again, why its difficult to to compare regions). The US also has a lower deaths per capita. Maybe the US is drastically under-counting deaths, maybe our healthcare is that much better, maybe our testing is designed to find sick people, not sampling, etc. Maybe some of all the above. Regardless, it is notable that the data doesnt support the fear mongering finger pointing headlines.



Anyway, some interesting information.

We're #1

MAGA

LunchTime said:

---

I saw some headlines:
1. Women leaders doing better against COVID19
2. Vietnam doing better than everyone despite sharing a border with China
3. The US has the most infections/deaths of any country.

This is data through the 12th

1. Countries with a female head of state are doing measurably better with deaths, but I am not sure it is statistically significant. I wouldnt claim women were incompetent if the tables were turned. But it is true they have lower per capita deaths (again, cases can be misleading).


2. Vietnam, along with a large list of other countries, is doing (apparently) remarkably well. I was curious about that, so I took the Democracy Index on the hunch that there would be a ramp from authoritarian to "Full Democracy." I dont have data on the why (maybe they can lock down their people better, maybe they can suppress reporting better, maybe they have better care, etc). I was just curious to see if it might exist. It does, and wildly so. Way more pronounced than I expected.
(China, 2.26, Vietnam, 3.08, US 7.96, Iran -the outlier- 2.38)


3. I indexed the EU to the US (the EU led the US in the outbreak by about 10 days). The US is wildly above the EU in cases (the EU has variable testing, like the US, but in general they see ~10% positives. New York sees 50% positives, pointing a strong difference in testing methodology (again, why its difficult to to compare regions). The US also has a lower deaths per capita. Maybe the US is drastically under-counting deaths, maybe our healthcare is that much better, maybe our testing is designed to find sick people, not sampling, etc. Maybe some of all the above. Regardless, it is notable that the data doesnt support the fear mongering finger pointing headlines.



Anyway, some interesting information.

---

Interesting, coulda been us too. She did receive the most votes.

London Breed declared an emergency in SF in January, before there was a single case. SF deaths are what, 12? In NYC it is over 10,000 possibly much more (37,000 deaths untested). Listening to the medical experts and shutting down early saved lives.

Here on Guam the Governor was a nurse before she was president of her family's bank. She shut down the island before there was a confirmed case, with all arrivals going to 14 day quarantine in a hotel. There is only one flight in and out each day to/from Honolulu and it is fairly empty. The hundreds of infected sailors from the U.S.S. Roosevelt quadrupled the number of infected on island, but hopefully that will be contained.

calumnus said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

I saw some headlines:
1. Women leaders doing better against COVID19
2. Vietnam doing better than everyone despite sharing a border with China
3. The US has the most infections/deaths of any country.

This is data through the 12th

1. Countries with a female head of state are doing measurably better with deaths, but I am not sure it is statistically significant. I wouldnt claim women were incompetent if the tables were turned. But it is true they have lower per capita deaths (again, cases can be misleading).


2. Vietnam, along with a large list of other countries, is doing (apparently) remarkably well. I was curious about that, so I took the Democracy Index on the hunch that there would be a ramp from authoritarian to "Full Democracy." I dont have data on the why (maybe they can lock down their people better, maybe they can suppress reporting better, maybe they have better care, etc). I was just curious to see if it might exist. It does, and wildly so. Way more pronounced than I expected.
(China, 2.26, Vietnam, 3.08, US 7.96, Iran -the outlier- 2.38)


3. I indexed the EU to the US (the EU led the US in the outbreak by about 10 days). The US is wildly above the EU in cases (the EU has variable testing, like the US, but in general they see ~10% positives. New York sees 50% positives, pointing a strong difference in testing methodology (again, why its difficult to to compare regions). The US also has a lower deaths per capita. Maybe the US is drastically under-counting deaths, maybe our healthcare is that much better, maybe our testing is designed to find sick people, not sampling, etc. Maybe some of all the above. Regardless, it is notable that the data doesnt support the fear mongering finger pointing headlines.



Anyway, some interesting information.

---

Interesting, coulda been us too. She did receive the most votes.

London Breed declared an emergency in SF in January, before there was a single case. SF deaths are what, 12? In NYC it is over 10,000 possibly much more (37,000 deaths untested). Listening to the medical experts and shutting down early saved lives.

---

Interesting article about SF proper getting all the credit for the shutdowns, when it was really Santa Clara County leading the way, and then the entire Bay Area acting as a whole together.

https://missionlocal.org/2020/04/covid-atlantic-london-breed/

Quote:

---

The Atlantic reports that Breed was inspired to shut this city down when she saw horrific photos and videos emanating from Wuhan from late 2019 and early 2020 even though, again, the health officers shut this city down. But the article does not report that she wrote a letter to would-be attendees of the massive February RSAC Conference in San Francisco downplaying their COVID-19 fears.

"Risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 in San Francisco is low as the virus is not circulating in our community," she wrote on Feb. 20. "San Francisco is open for business as leaders in business and government, we must set an example to prevent fear, rumors, and misinformation from guiding our actions."

---

Quote:

---

You can see it here. You can see the places where the order states "BLANK" so each of the six counties can insert "San Francisco" or "Solano" or Alameda" or whatever into its version of the text.
The order concludes with a line marked "NAME, Health Officer of the County of BLANK."
This order was superseded on March 31 by an extension. You can see it here. You will note that San Francisco has simply copied-and-pasted the text from Santa Clara, which explains why it lists the COVID-19 case totals for that county.

---

None of these numbers are remotely accurate. They've all got an inverse Bernie Madoff scheme going. No testing = no oversight.

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

ColoradoBear said:

---

calumnus said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

I saw some headlines:
1. Women leaders doing better against COVID19
2. Vietnam doing better than everyone despite sharing a border with China
3. The US has the most infections/deaths of any country.

This is data through the 12th

1. Countries with a female head of state are doing measurably better with deaths, but I am not sure it is statistically significant. I wouldnt claim women were incompetent if the tables were turned. But it is true they have lower per capita deaths (again, cases can be misleading).


2. Vietnam, along with a large list of other countries, is doing (apparently) remarkably well. I was curious about that, so I took the Democracy Index on the hunch that there would be a ramp from authoritarian to "Full Democracy." I dont have data on the why (maybe they can lock down their people better, maybe they can suppress reporting better, maybe they have better care, etc). I was just curious to see if it might exist. It does, and wildly so. Way more pronounced than I expected.
(China, 2.26, Vietnam, 3.08, US 7.96, Iran -the outlier- 2.38)


3. I indexed the EU to the US (the EU led the US in the outbreak by about 10 days). The US is wildly above the EU in cases (the EU has variable testing, like the US, but in general they see ~10% positives. New York sees 50% positives, pointing a strong difference in testing methodology (again, why its difficult to to compare regions). The US also has a lower deaths per capita. Maybe the US is drastically under-counting deaths, maybe our healthcare is that much better, maybe our testing is designed to find sick people, not sampling, etc. Maybe some of all the above. Regardless, it is notable that the data doesnt support the fear mongering finger pointing headlines.



Anyway, some interesting information.

---

Interesting, coulda been us too. She did receive the most votes.

London Breed declared an emergency in SF in January, before there was a single case. SF deaths are what, 12? In NYC it is over 10,000 possibly much more (37,000 deaths untested). Listening to the medical experts and shutting down early saved lives.

---

Interesting article about SF proper getting all the credit for the shutdowns, when it was really Santa Clara County leading the way, and then the entire Bay Area acting as a whole together.

https://missionlocal.org/2020/04/covid-atlantic-london-breed/

Quote:

---

The Atlantic reports that Breed was inspired to shut this city down when she saw horrific photos and videos emanating from Wuhan from late 2019 and early 2020 even though, again, the health officers shut this city down. But the article does not report that she wrote a letter to would-be attendees of the massive February RSAC Conference in San Francisco downplaying their COVID-19 fears.

"Risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 in San Francisco is low as the virus is not circulating in our community," she wrote on Feb. 20. "San Francisco is open for business as leaders in business and government, we must set an example to prevent fear, rumors, and misinformation from guiding our actions."

---

Quote:

---

You can see it here. You can see the places where the order states "BLANK" so each of the six counties can insert "San Francisco" or "Solano" or Alameda" or whatever into its version of the text.
The order concludes with a line marked "NAME, Health Officer of the County of BLANK."
This order was superseded on March 31 by an extension. You can see it here. You will note that San Francisco has simply copied-and-pasted the text from Santa Clara, which explains why it lists the COVID-19 case totals for that county.

---

---

Sort of like the Santa Clara 49ers.

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

---

Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

---

It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

---

Da Nang is in the South (or at least what had been South Vietnam)

UrsaMajor said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

Sebastabear said:

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Spent a few weeks in Vietnam immediately before the outbreak. I can confidentially say there is zero chance that data is accurate. Lack of first rate medical care? Check. (Was told anyone with any money at all leaves for even the simplest medical procedure). Incredibly crowded living conditions? Check. Hand washing with soap? Definitely no check.

Vietnam almost certainly just took its lead from its totalitarian neighbor to the North. If you don't report it then it didn't happen.

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It was interesting to learn that 100% cases are in the north, and the Carrier that got infected visited De Nang.

The only infection in the entire south reported was a couple from the UK. They infected several sailors all in a quick stop over (I think overnight?) at the hotel, and no one else was infected...

Sounds legit.

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Da Nang is in the South (or at least what had been South Vietnam)

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Maybe I wasnt clear:

Vietnam claims the only cases have been in the North.

The Carrier didnt visit the North. It visited De Nang, where Vietnam did not, and still has not reported any cases.

Somehow the only transmission in the entire South, including De Nang (apparently) was between a UK couple traveling, who was staying in the same hotel some sailors did. The UK couple, in their entire stay in Vietnam, only managed to infect the sailors of the TR, during a brief overnight stay in the hotel.

There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated. Or maybe the couple was swingers and only like Americans or something.

>There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated

It's clear the virus exists in the southern half of Vietnam. But underreporting of cases or even deaths is hardly evidence of data manipulation. Particularly in less developed countries, testing is haphazard at best. Here in the US, the richest country in the world, we probably only detect half the infections. Wouldn't be at all surprising in Vietnam if they only detected 10% of the cases. And as people are just discovering here in the US, underreporting of deaths is also systemic.

Cal84 said:

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>There are still no cases in the South, AFAIK. I would suspect that the data is being intentionally manipulated

It's clear the virus exists in the southern half of Vietnam. But underreporting of cases or even deaths is hardly evidence of data manipulation. Particularly in less developed countries, testing is haphazard at best. Here in the US, the richest country in the world, we probably only detect half the infections. Wouldn't be at all surprising in Vietnam if they only detected 10% of the cases. And as people are just discovering here in the US, underreporting of deaths is also systemic.

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I think we are detecting far less than half the COVID-19 infections and that's not even counting the asymptomatic ones. 5-10 times that many must be around, probably even more.

Statistically, you can multiply the number of deaths by 100 to 200 to get a more accurate infection count. And then there are the deaths that don't even get counted as COVID.

Anecdotally, I have Kaiser and am still at the same point I was a month ago. If I feel like I have it, I can call their swamped phone number (good luck getting through). If I have the symptoms, I will be told to rest and isolate, unless I feel I need hospitalization. If I need to go in, they MIGHT give me a test.

My 7 yr old daughter has developed a cough. My wife tried to call and was on hold for a while, then gave up. I was like, "Why bother unless she has a fever for a couple of days? Why even bother?"

If all concerts in ca have been cancelled until we have a vaccine, we are looking at 2021 for sports as well, at best. Bummer.