So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
It's possible, but I'd say extremely unlikely. Seasonal spikes in respiratory infections happen all the time. If they were seeing death and hospitalization rates on par with coronavirus the medical community would have taken notice. Every December and January people get illnesses like that.
So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
It's possible, but I'd say extremely unlikely. Seasonal spikes in respiratory infections happen all the time. If they were seeing death and hospitalization rates on par with coronavirus the medical community would have taken notice. Every December and January people get illnesses like that.
A few weeks ago my step-mother got very sick with fever and a lot of coughing. My dad described as "14 on a scale of 1 to 10" and of course was convinced she had COVID-19. They went to the doctor and it was a cold/flu with bronchitis. As the bronchitis was bacterial, it cleared up in a few days with antibiotics.
What is dangerous about COVID-19 is it can cause pneumonia, but being viral, it cannot be treated with antibiotics. Respirators and oxygen can help, but your immune system pretty much has to fight it off. From the reports I've heard, the worst of it passes in as soon as a day, but many with other illnesses don't get through that day.
So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
It's possible, but I'd say extremely unlikely. Seasonal spikes in respiratory infections happen all the time. If they were seeing death and hospitalization rates on par with coronavirus the medical community would have taken notice. Every December and January people get illnesses like that.
While you're probably right, the lack of testing, both for the virus and/or anti-bodies leaves the question open.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
I'm in the grocery store this morning, and about to pick up the last gallon container of milk in the place.
Some idiot woman swoops in and grabs it, putting her diseased claws all over it, saying "Here, I'll get that for you."
"Are you f_ _ _ king kidding me," I say. "Why don't you cough all over it to finish the job?"
She looked at me with an expression of lost stupidity. Completely obvious to the concept of minimizing contact to defend against Covid-19. This thing is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Between the Chinese government, and the Trump administration, BOTH would lie about the time of day at high noon to suit their purposes. Neither is a legitimate source of real information. That is a major reason this thing got out of control so fast.
Between the Chinese government, and the Trump administration, BOTH would lie about the time of day at high noon to suit their purposes. Neither is a legitimate source of real information. That is a major reason this thing got out of control so fast.
Between the Chinese government, and the Trump administration, BOTH would lie about the time of day at high noon to suit their purposes. Neither is a legitimate source of real information. That is a major reason this thing got out of control so fast.
You got that right.
Nice shot, you got'em!
"You can trust us because we're not Chinese nor stupid Trumpers."
I'm in the grocery store this morning, and about to pick up the last gallon container of milk in the place.
Some idiot woman swoops in and grabs it, putting her diseased claws all over it, saying "Here, I'll get that for you."
"Are you f_ _ _ king kidding me," I say. "Why don't you cough all over it to finish the job?"
She looked at me with an expression of lost stupidity. Completely obvious to the concept of minimizing contact to defend against Covid-19. This thing is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Yeah it is impossible to not get exposed. Went to Michaels craft store here is So Cal with my daughter and practiced social distancing not getting anywhere near other customers, spent time going over how to handle things to minimize contamination, then I get to the cash register where a nice young girl rings things up and then proceeds to pick every item up and place in a nice pile for us to take home. she was just trying to be nice in straightening out the organization of our purchases but was essentially rubbing her hands all over our goods. Not really her fault, young people her age are just not trained nor cognizant of habits which could lessen exposure to people. As a surgeon I am very cognizant of what touches my hands. Hard to get mad though at her, it just takes more training
From the introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is now a major global health threat. As of 16thMarch 2020, there have been 164,837 cases and 6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide. Global spread has been rapid, with 146 countries now having reported at least one case. The last time the world responded to a global emerging disease epidemic of the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic with no access to vaccines was the 1918-19 H1N1 influenza pandemic
Results: In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB (Great Britain) and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic....In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US,....
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. ...In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US...
I encourage everyone to read the whole report or find a news article that summarizes it .
There are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
It's possible, but I'd say extremely unlikely. Seasonal spikes in respiratory infections happen all the time. If they were seeing death and hospitalization rates on par with coronavirus the medical community would have taken notice. Every December and January people get illnesses like that.
While you're probably right, the lack of testing, both for the virus and/or anti-bodies leaves the question open.
But it will be easy enough to test these people at any time in the future to confirm that they did not have Coronavirus. If you had it, you'll carry the antibodies for life.
I heard a similar story from someone who was at SFO in November and got sick. This person is CONVINCED they should be tested.
Epidemics don't work this way. They have a STARTING point and spread from there. If people in the US had it first, it wouldn't then have "restarted" in Wuhan.
It's just people who got the flu or a bad virus/bug and it sucked. Bad bugs and the flu suck. It's why the flu kills thousands every year and why we have a vaccine.
I'm not believing a SHRED of this until I hear a reputable source gives credence to it.
Fyght4Cal, it is quite possible that your folks got a milder strain of Covid19, which would still be a whole lot harsher than a bad case of flu. There are several strains going around today, perhaps 5 major ones. The most virulent appears to be ravaging Iran.
We'll find out a lot more about the epidemiology of this virus in the months or year to come.
So, my brother and his family were desperately ill from Christmas thru the end of January. Their symptoms sounded a lot like COVID-19. He says he seriously felt as though he was going to die. This "respiratory infection" swept thru Atlanta. He said he encountered scores of sick people at the doctor's office and the pharmacy. I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written. Others have noted the same:
It's possible, but I'd say extremely unlikely. Seasonal spikes in respiratory infections happen all the time. If they were seeing death and hospitalization rates on par with coronavirus the medical community would have taken notice. Every December and January people get illnesses like that.
While you're probably right, the lack of testing, both for the virus and/or anti-bodies leaves the question open.
But it will be easy enough to test these people at any time in the future to confirm that they did not have Coronavirus. If you had it, you'll carry the antibodies for life.
I heard a similar story from someone who was at SFO in November and got sick. This person is CONVINCED they should be tested.
Epidemics don't work this way. They have a STARTING point and spread from there. If people in the US had it first, it wouldn't then have "restarted" in Wuhan.
It's just people who got the flu or a bad virus/bug and it sucked. Bad bugs and the flu suck. It's why the flu kills thousands every year and why we have a vaccine.
I'm not believing a SHRED of this until I hear a reputable source gives credence to it.
Notice, I said, " I'm not sure the full story of the arrival of this virus in the US has been written."
Nowhere did I say COVID-19 began in the US.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
For everyone mocking Trump, or Doctor Drew, with 20/20 hindsight, consider this quote from Anthony Fauci on Feb 17th, the Director of infectious diseases at the NIH since '84 under all U.S. Presidents:
Quote:
Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule."
Quote:
"We have more kids dying of flu this year at this time than in the last decade or more," he said. "At the same time people are worrying about going to a Chinese restaurant. The threat is (we have) a pretty bad influenza season, particularly dangerous for our children."
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be testing for the coronavirus in people in five major cities who show up at clinics with flu-like symptoms but who test negative for the seasonal varieties.
If that testing shows the virus has slipped into the country in places federal officials don't know about, "we've got a problem," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Monday.
Looks like he had too much faith in that one point of the CDC doing the testing, but you'd think the director of infectious diseases at the NIH would have a good grasp of the capabilities of the CDC.
Please watch the first 10 minutes of this NOW! Is the cure worse than the disease?
That was great. This guy is fascinating. The point he makes has been so resonating with me - there doesn't seem to be a rationality to what we're doing. I saw him on CNN with Amanpour. He both called out the WHO for its "optimistic" outlook it wouldn't be spreading, and our response in being overblown... and this idea that we've just sort of grandfathered in acceptance of influenza deaths...
Fyght4Cal, it is quite possible that your folks got a milder strain of Covid19, which would still be a whole lot harsher than a bad case of flu. There are several strains going around today, perhaps 5 major ones. The most virulent appears to be ravaging Iran.
We'll find out a lot more about the epidemiology of this virus in the months or year to come.
I had a terrible virus last May/June, like nothing I'd ever had before. Seemed like a cold/flu combination, with a moderate fever that lasted for days. Kinda matches COVID-19 symptoms. Maybe it was another sort of coronavirus. I'm hoping it gives me a little immunity from this one, though I suppose that's unlikely.
WThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
WThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
Most models are based on what's happening in Italy. Obviously, the model is imperfect in many ways: lack of testing, scale, resources, population density, etc. This is in it's infancy here in the US. Every model predicts exponential growth in those that will be sick and die. It's all informed guesswork at this point. Predictions of hundreds of thousands or a million deaths is not unreasonable. If our healthcare system is indeed overwhelmed, people may not necessarily die of COVID, but may die from other conditions. Also, how many many have died from COVID but weren't diagnosed? I'm highly skeptical of that 155 number.
WThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
Most models are based on what's happening in Italy. Obviously, the model is imperfect in many ways: lack of testing, scale, resources, population density, etc. This is in it's infancy here in the US. Every model predicts exponential growth in those that will be sick and die. It's all informed guesswork at this point. Predictions of hundreds of thousands or a million deaths is not unreasonable. If our healthcare system is indeed overwhelmed, people may not necessarily die of COVID, but may die from other conditions. Also, how many many have died from COVID but weren't diagnosed? I'm highly skeptical of that 155 number.
A solid post, IMO. The projections are probably reasonable based on the (incomplete) data we have. The problem is that the curve is based on relatively few data points, thus the SEM (standard error of measurement) has to be quite large. 1.1 million (or 2.5 million) is probably the upper limit, but we can't know with any degree of certainty.
Today, the deaths in Italy hit 3,405. Absolutely tragic. C19 seems to have a very long incubation period. Unfortunately, I expect many more to die. I really pray that this doesn't affect us here as badly but fear it will.
Someone yesterday told me that it was because Italy's healthcare system isn't very good. WRONG! The Lombardy region, where I've spent a lot of time, has an excellent healthcare system that would be the envy of most regional systems here. Take care all.
WThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
Most models are based on what's happening in Italy. Obviously, the model is imperfect in many ways: lack of testing, scale, resources, population density, etc. This is in it's infancy here in the US. Every model predicts exponential growth in those that will be sick and die. It's all informed guesswork at this point. Predictions of hundreds of thousands or a million deaths is not unreasonable. If our healthcare system is indeed overwhelmed, people may not necessarily die of COVID, but may die from other conditions. Also, how many many have died from COVID but weren't diagnosed? I'm highly skeptical of that 155 number.
A solid post, IMO. The projections are probably reasonable based on the (incomplete) data we have. The problem is that the curve is based on relatively few data points, thus the SEM (standard error of measurement) has to be quite large. 1.1 million (or 2.5 million) is probably the upper limit, but we can't know with any degree of certainty.
"In the most effective mitigation strategy examined * * * the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."
It reads to me as if the model is saying the best case scenario - not an upper limit of the model within the SEM - results in 1.1 - 1.2 million deaths.
The model for 2.2m deaths (page 7) shows daily deaths reaching their apex at approximately 2.5 months (see page 7); that model predicts >60K deaths per day at that apex. No country - not even China - has seen the type of behavior shown in the model. China's death rate leveled off then decreased (mostly) after about 3 weeks. Italy saw a leveling of daily death rates at about the 3 week mark @360pd until it kicked up over 400 yesterday. Iran is on a continuous upward swing but they are at 147 deaths pd, as of yesterday.
Maybe there are conditions which make the US and GB uniquely incapable of handling the virus. Maybe the model correctly accounts for those deficiencies. Or maybe, because the behavior the model predicts isn't reflected in the prominent real life situation we have data for, the methodology of the model is flawed.
WThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
Most models are based on what's happening in Italy. Obviously, the model is imperfect in many ways: lack of testing, scale, resources, population density, etc. This is in it's infancy here in the US. Every model predicts exponential growth in those that will be sick and die. It's all informed guesswork at this point. Predictions of hundreds of thousands or a million deaths is not unreasonable. If our healthcare system is indeed overwhelmed, people may not necessarily die of COVID, but may die from other conditions. Also, how many many have died from COVID but weren't diagnosed? I'm highly skeptical of that 155 number.
A solid post, IMO. The projections are probably reasonable based on the (incomplete) data we have. The problem is that the curve is based on relatively few data points, thus the SEM (standard error of measurement) has to be quite large. 1.1 million (or 2.5 million) is probably the upper limit, but we can't know with any degree of certainty.
"In the most effective mitigation strategy examined * * * the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."
It reads to me as if the model is saying the best case scenario - not an upper limit of the model within the SEM - results in 1.1 - 1.2 million deaths.
The model for 2.2m deaths (page 7) shows daily deaths reaching their apex at approximately 2.5 months (see page 7); that model predicts >60K deaths per day at that apex. No country - not even China - has seen the type of behavior shown in the model. China's death rate leveled off then decreased (mostly) after about 3 weeks. Italy saw a leveling of daily death rates at about the 3 week mark @360pd until it kicked up over 400 yesterday. Iran is on a continuous upward swing but they are at 147 deaths pd, as of yesterday.
Maybe there are conditions which make the US and GB uniquely incapable of handling the virus. Maybe the model correctly accounts for those deficiencies. Or maybe, because the behavior the model predicts isn't reflected in the prominent real life situation we have data for, the methodology of the model is flawed.
Comparisons to China are apples and oranges. China was able to institute a near complete lock down, with extreme mitigation and resource allocation that we couldn't come close to replicating.
QWThere are not going to be 1.1M deaths. That is absurd.
agree, absurd, until it isn't. # nobody is in control // stuff happens
We are approximately 4 months into this. There are 155 reported deaths and under 10k cases in the US. The incident rate isn't reliable because of lack of testing. The death rate is likely much lower than 1.5%. For much of these 4 months the government was lax in responding. We don't have vaccines. In other words, we are likely in a place where things are worse than normal. So things are going to get better and during that time of improvement the incident and death rates would have to explode in order to reach 1.1m. I fully agree with you that stuff happens but just by common sense it is extremely unlikely 1.1m ever happens. The odds seem so remote that it's irresponsible to publish that number.
Most models are based on what's happening in Italy. Obviously, the model is imperfect in many ways: lack of testing, scale, resources, population density, etc. This is in it's infancy here in the US. Every model predicts exponential growth in those that will be sick and die. It's all informed guesswork at this point. Predictions of hundreds of thousands or a million deaths is not unreasonable. If our healthcare system is indeed overwhelmed, people may not necessarily die of COVID, but may die from other conditions. Also, how many many have died from COVID but weren't diagnosed? I'm highly skeptical of that 155 number.
A solid post, IMO. The projections are probably reasonable based on the (incomplete) data we have. The problem is that the curve is based on relatively few data points, thus the SEM (standard error of measurement) has to be quite large. 1.1 million (or 2.5 million) is probably the upper limit, but we can't know with any degree of certainty.
"In the most effective mitigation strategy examined * * * the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."
It reads to me as if the model is saying the best case scenario - not an upper limit of the model within the SEM - results in 1.1 - 1.2 million deaths.
The model for 2.2m deaths (page 7) shows daily deaths reaching their apex at approximately 2.5 months (see page 7); that model predicts >60K deaths per day at that apex. No country - not even China - has seen the type of behavior shown in the model. China's death rate leveled off then decreased (mostly) after about 3 weeks. Italy saw a leveling of daily death rates at about the 3 week mark @360pd until it kicked up over 400 yesterday. Iran is on a continuous upward swing but they are at 147 deaths pd, as of yesterday.
Maybe there are conditions which make the US and GB uniquely incapable of handling the virus. Maybe the model correctly accounts for those deficiencies. Or maybe, because the behavior the model predicts isn't reflected in the prominent real life situation we have data for, the methodology of the model is flawed.
Comparisons to China are apples and oranges. China was able to institute a near complete lock down, with extreme mitigation and resource allocation that we couldn't come close to replicating.
Very fair point. US and Iran are currently on a continuous upswing in daily deaths. Spain, Germany, France, South Korea....some of them we need more data to confirm but to my eye they generally look like their death rates level off after @3 weeks. Some of those countries had a one day spike somewhere in the leveling trend. TBD if that was a deviation from the general trend or a sign of a new upward death rate. Need more data to know for sure, but even if it's a temporary leveling off that's not reflected in the model. We shall see. I appreciate that we can have these discussions on this board.
I've said this before but we really need to work on the healthcare supply side. Flattening the curve is nice but we also need to increase the system capacity if we want to end this shelter period earlier.
Really hoping the federal government figures it out and spends more time working on that and less time avoiding responsibility.
Please watch the first 10 minutes of this NOW! Is the cure worse than the disease?
There are some reports that China grossly underreported its Hubei casualty count, which could have been in the tens of thousands. This is what spurred them to implement such a drastic lockdown on the rest of the country.
If those reports are true, then this professor is wrong about underestimating the lethal potential of the disease.
Please watch the first 10 minutes of this NOW! Is the cure worse than the disease?
There are some reports that China grossly underreported its Hubei casualty count, which could have been in the tens of thousands. This is what spurred them to implement such a drastic lockdown on the rest of the country.
If those reports are true, then this professor is wrong about underestimating the lethal potential of the disease.
It's smart to presume all COVID-19 related information coming out of China is incorrect. Expelling all US journalists yesterday was a clear sign of their intentions.
For those desperate for sports, FS1 is showing live Aussie rules footy. The AFL season has just started and they're moving forward with matches played in empty stadiums for now. They are doing routine covid testing apparently and have vowed to suspend the league for 30 days if any player tests positive. It's just nice to see some live sports on the tube and while I admit I'm biased since I used to live in Aus, the footy is quality entertainment. But it also serves as an interesting experiment to how sports may be played (or not) going forward.
Thanks for the alert, curious sport but fun to watch. But disappointed to see the referees in white hats and lab coats are gone. That was the most curious aspect.
Please watch the first 10 minutes of this NOW! Is the cure worse than the disease?
There are some reports that China grossly underreported its Hubei casualty count, which could have been in the tens of thousands. This is what spurred them to implement such a drastic lockdown on the rest of the country.
If those reports are true, then this professor is wrong about underestimating the lethal potential of the disease.
It's smart to presume all COVID-19 related information coming out of China is incorrect. Expelling all US journalists yesterday was a clear sign of their intentions.
Agreed, so much, on so many levels, and not just regarding this virus, the information and data coming-out of China fits a narrative.
I have two Chinese colleagues, one resides in Wuhan. I didn't know that until recently. I met these two during an offsite in Europe and their eyes were opened, in a major way. They saw, heard and read things about their government they did not previously know. At that time, their "president" Xi had effectively removed term limits weeks before. They had no idea. In their speaking with my other colleagues, the topic of Tiananmen Square came-up. The gal from Wuhan was in disbelief to the point of being angry and believed her government did no such thing. I wasn't there for that conversation, but was later told... Today, she is highly critical of the CCP.
Some serious stuff happened in Hubei. The death count likely many, many times higher. There were accounts and videos that were very disturbing. Doors were welded shut on apartment buildings to enforce quarantines. People falling-out of windows trying to escape. For a time, people were killing their pets after they were wrongly told they can transfer the virus. Police brutality in rounding people up. Bodies in public, bodies carried-out of residences, those apparently going straight to the crematoriums (no ceremonies), not being counted.
To what degree that was all true, I didn't know, but I had a sense it was legit. Now, seeing the impact of this virus, I am certain the impact and loss of life in China was huge.
As I type, over 27K known cases in the US, 334 dead, making for a 1.24% mortality rate. As bad as that sounds, from that I've been reading, that's tracking in a desirable way, South Korea-like.
It's absolutely too soon to calculate a mortality rate that doesn't take into account recoveries. Some number of the 27k currently infected will eventually die so calculating the mortality rate the way you have will always understate they risk. Not to mention that we are likely to have worse outcomes as our brittle healthcare system becomes overwhelmed.
Please watch the first 10 minutes of this NOW! Is the cure worse than the disease?
There are some reports that China grossly underreported its Hubei casualty count, which could have been in the tens of thousands. This is what spurred them to implement such a drastic lockdown on the rest of the country.
If those reports are true, then this professor is wrong about underestimating the lethal potential of the disease.
It's smart to presume all COVID-19 related information coming out of China is incorrect. Expelling all US journalists yesterday was a clear sign of their intentions.
Agreed, so much, on so many levels, and not just regarding this virus, the information and data coming-out of China fits a narrative.
I have two Chinese colleagues, one resides in Wuhan. I didn't know that until recently. I met these two during an offsite in Europe and their eyes were opened, in a major way. They saw, heard and read things about their government they did not previously know. At that time, their "president" Xi had effectively removed term limits weeks before. They had no idea. In their speaking with my other colleagues, the topic of Tiananmen Square came-up. The gal from Wuhan was in disbelief to the point of being angry and believed her government did no such thing. I wasn't there for that conversation, but was later told... Today, she is highly critical of the CCP.
Some serious stuff happened in Hubei. The death count likely many, many times higher. There were accounts and videos that were very disturbing. Doors were welded shut on apartment buildings to enforce quarantines. People falling-out of windows trying to escape. For a time, people were killing their pets after they were wrongly told they can transfer the virus. Police brutality in rounding people up. Bodies in public, bodies carried-out of residences, those apparently going straight to the crematoriums (no ceremonies), not being counted.
To what degree that was all true, I didn't know, but I had a sense it was legit. Now, seeing the impact of this virus, I am certain the impact and loss of life in China was huge.
As I type, over 27K known cases in the US, 334 dead, making for a 1.24% mortality rate. As bad as that sounds, from that I've been reading, that's tracking in a desirable way, South Korea-like.
GENEVA (Reuters) - World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday there was no need for measures that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" in trying to halt the spread of a coronavirus that has killed 361 people in China.
First, note hpw Reuters referred to the virus. Secondly read the quote. And now we're allowing flights back in to SFO. Insane. Absolutely insane.
Nice shot, you got'em!
