GoCal80 said:

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For anyone interested in a short, informative article about the spread of viral pathogens, I recommend this article:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2002106?query=TOC&fbclid=IwAR0JGPAnrQN-wblaRg0lv4iw5SKG-healA9c83ZD9FtMj72sWmljet0TTOE

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Thanks for posting this.

Blueblood said:

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heartofthebear said:

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Blueblood said:

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heartofthebear said:

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As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.

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Don't forget to oil up your semi-automatic rifle and to stock up with plenty of ammo, too!

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sorry I asked

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Oh, don't be sorry. I didn't mean to deter you from getting your medical advice from this site. I don't trust doctors either.

I will answer your question.

I would wear a mask on your flight to highlight your concern to all the other passengers. Why when I flew out to Salt Lake City to watch Cal play Utah I made and wore a special mask (see below) to show any Cal fans on my flight that I wasn't worried about that game when the Bears were probably going to play a third string QB.

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I have a different sense of humor than you when it comes to pandemics

XXXBEAR said:

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Sorry this is not 1919.

It's good to be both prepared and cautious, but, the death rate is 2.5% affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Wash your hands, don't run yourself down, and you'll be fine, as it will be severely diluted by warmer weather like all influenzas.

No games cancelled here, and maybe this is an opportunity to redesign our reliance on China based supply chains.

(SF Chinatown reports business down by 60%.)

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I looked up the fatality rate for the Spanish Flu, and it's also 2.5%. This BTW is more than 25 times the fatality rate of a normal flu. The R0 of the Spanish Flu (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) was around 2.1, in the same range as the R0 for COVID-19, which is estimated around 2.3.

The rationalization that this will mostly affect the elderly and those with respiratory issues means that a substantial percentage of those people will die, perhaps 10%-15%. Not very reassuring.

As well, a significant portion of those infected will develop severe pulmonary infections that aren't normally fatal but require ICU treatment, which we might not be able to provide in case of a large epidemic overwhelming the healthcare system. There are fewer than 100,000 ICU beds in the US, and I would imagine under normal circumstances a large percentage of those are already filled.

I suppose quite a few have stocked-up on food and supplies recently. We have what we call our family "store" in the garage, basically shelves of goods that we transition into the kitchen. We are always pretty well-stocked, including respirators and N95 masks purchased well after the last outbreak, before this one...

Speaking of stock, plenty of shares available for those with the stomach! S&P 500 did a nice, predictable bounce moments ago just above 3,000 (support/resistance spot), triggering some buys for me. Have more at lower prices, should the downtrend continue...

That's one of the takeaways here, stock up now, a few weeks before the wave of panic buying hits. It's better for everyone, as it staggers the impact on stores inventories.

Cal88 said:

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I looked up the fatality rate for the Spanish Flu, and it's also 2.5%. This BTW is more than 25 times the fatality rate of a normal flu. The R0 of the Spanish Flu (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) was around 2.1, in the same range as the R0 for COVID-19, which is estimated around 2.3.

The rationalization that this will mostly affect the elderly and those with respiratory issues means that a substantial percentage of those people will die, perhaps 10%-15%. Not very reassuring.

As well, a significant portion of those infected will develop severe pulmonary infections that aren't normally fatal but require ICU treatment, which we might not be able to provide in case of a large epidemic overwhelming the healthcare system. There are fewer than 100,000 ICU beds in the US, and I would imagine under normal circumstances a large percentage of those are already filled.

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According to the NYT today (quoting a Chinese study) "The overall fatality rate in China was 2.3 percent. But that number was inflated by the much higher fatality rate in Hubei Province, of 2.9 percent, compared with a rate of just 0.4 percent in the rest of the country. The seasonal flu, by comparison, has a mortality rate of about 0.1 percent." It is quite possible the rest of the world will experience death rates closer to the rates of non-Hubei China (as in a World Health Organization report I saw that estimated death rates at 0.7 percent outside China). The reason is, as I have read, there is a dose effect; the more exposures the worse. I am optimistic that public health measures will help reduce exposures. But I could be wrong. And even that lower death rates would mean lots of deaths if it spreads widely.

Sluggo

LunchTime said:

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Big C said:

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Ignorant question: So, they've identified the virus. Does that mean they can create a vaccine, like they do with influenza? How long does that take, a year or so? Can that time be shortened, in the case of a deadly pandemic, by investing more resources?

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I am not a doctor, but my understanding is that they have to find the monkey, bring the monkey to a lab, while preventing the government from nuking ground zero. Then they can take the monkey blood and the blood is the actual vaccine.

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Thanks for this. I believe that most of us would agree that Pandemic Humor is an emerging sub-genre!

Q: How many people does it take to start a pandemic?

A: Only Wuhan.

bipolarbear said:

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The 2011 movie "Contagion" with all star cast is very timely. Entertaining as well. Eerily prescient down to the bat guano ground zero in China.

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Last year's "Hot Zone" even moreso, since it's based on true events. However, Preston has received criticism for his hyperbolic descriptions of an Ebola death.

Better still is David Quammen's "Spillover" about viral outbreaks and zoonosis. Fascinating field of study.

And the world's deadliest virus is... ???

Chapman_is_Gone said:

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Q: How many people does it take to start a pandemic?

A: Only Wuhan.

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Thank you for this. I've been mispronouncing it this whole time!

Chapman_is_Gone said:

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Q: How many people does it take to start a pandemic?

A: Only Wuhan.

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Lol! Unfortunately, I suspect only Mandarin speakers will get the joke.

heartofthebear said:

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Blueblood said:

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heartofthebear said:

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I have a different sense of humor than you when it comes to pandemics

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Okay, I get your point.

So, let me recommend another mask type, which is a little more stoic and serious. I might add that this mask might also prove to be of some further health benefit in that it might guarantee the seat next to you will remain empty for the duration of your flight.
"Where are the peanuts?"

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Hey, how about I start joking about you getting into a car accident or your child dying of a disease. I suppose that's funny too.

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You are just naturally funny. No need to trot out material.

KenBurnski said:

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heartofthebear said:

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Blueblood said:

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"burp!"

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You are just naturally funny. No need to trot out material.

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You got it, Ken babes!

The posters here provide me with all the material that I need. By the way, you haven't contributed lately?

Cal88 said:

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I apologize for busting the OP's chops earlier because I firmly agree with his/her latest post!

bearister said:

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If memory serves, Brother Blueblood served in the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam so he walked the walk and has the standing for gallows humor in my book.

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Mine too. I was one lottery day away from being drafted in 1970, and decided to wait it out. BB has my admiration & forbearance and has earned more than that with his service to our country.

Wikipedia reports this about the 101st Airborn in Vietnam: "Enemy commanders are said to have warned their men to avoid the Chicken Men (called that due to their Eagle insignia) at all costs because they were sure to lose any engagement with them. One of the opponents of the 101st Airborne Division commented that of all the American organizations he opposed that the 101st Airborne was the one he feared the most."

Elements of the 101st fought throughout the entire time the U.S. was in Vietnam.

In short, BB is the real deal.

LunchTime said:

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bearister said:

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If memory serves, Brother Blueblood served in the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam so he walked the walk and has the standing for gallows humor in my book.....and it beats the terror and panic the media is spreading in pursuit of ratings and $$$$*

*Providing a platform for education and preparedness is crucial for this public health emergency ......but that appears not to be the primary goal of many media outlets.

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Why is he such a thin skinned weenie, then?

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Who else here is really going to offer you a forum for your big know-it-all mouth?

Sorry blue, I can see you replied, but you are ignored.

What did you say?

LunchTime said:

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Sorry blue, I can see you replied, but you are ignored.

What did you say?

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Let's hope that this creep checks his private e-mail.......

Bear19 said:

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LunchTime said:

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bearister said:

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If memory serves, Brother Blueblood served in the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam so he walked the walk and has the standing for gallows humor in my book.....and it beats the terror and panic the media is spreading in pursuit of ratings and $$$$*

*Providing a platform for education and preparedness is crucial for this public health emergency ......but that appears not to be the primary goal of many media outlets.

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Why is he such a thin skinned weenie, then?

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LT, your comment is so stupid it surpasses virtually every stupid comment ever posted on BI. Tell me you didn't actually get admitted to Cal.

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I sent a PM.

I have a very low level of distaste for BB. Not enough to rehash old things in public. He doesnt rate high enough to dislike. But, yeah, he is soft. Like a millennial meme soft.

I poke him sometimes, he pokes me. He seems to get more upset than me, by orders of magnitude.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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TheFiatLux said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.

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Not dismissing the OP's concerns, but this "I'll mark you down..." cracked me up.

Also, curious, where in Eastern Oregon are you?

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I wasn't dismissing his concerns, I was more commenting on his tone. I think it could play out the way he suggests, but probably not as fast as he describes. We've been hearing about the virus for a while now and it still is in relatively small geographic areas. It hasn't really gotten established in the US, but he expects the maximum effects a month from now? I also think it could prove milder than he describes.

As for me, I live in Pendleton, OR.

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I', sorry, I didn't mean YOU were dismissing her ( believe the OP is a she) concerns, I meant I didn't want to do that :-) I still found your line funny :-)

I'm in Barcelona right now. A massive annual conference Mobile World Congress was canceled because of the virus. 100,000 attendees planned with all, basically, cancelled. The worry was that because such a huge # of attendees come in from China, it posed a great danger. So instead Barcelona is, pleasantly (not for merchants I'm sure) quiet.

LunchTime said:

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I poke him sometimes, he pokes me. He seems to get more upset than me, by orders of magnitude.

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Thanks for responding/explaining.

Cal88 said:

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The mortality rate is about 2%, so the worst case scenario looks like something of the scale of the Spanish Flu (in absolute numbers that is), with around 100 million deaths worldwide. A huge catastrophe no doubt, but well short of an extinction event.

I've cancelled my vacation, was planning a trip to France and Italy in May.

In terms of numbers, the Koreans have a solid healthcare structure with reliable, transparent reporting (unlike in China), the number of cases there is now over 1000.

Japan has just cancelled all sporting events for the next two weeks.

This British doctor has a good daily report on COVID:

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The most vulnerable are seniors and young children. The percentages go up for them (or should I say "Us" since I cal Cal Class of 68)

bearister said:

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If memory serves, Brother Blueblood served in the 101st Airborne Division in Vietnam so he walked the walk and has the standing for gallows humor in my book.....and it beats the terror and panic the media is spreading in pursuit of ratings and $$$$*

*Providing a platform for education and preparedness is crucial for this public health emergency ......but that appears not to be the primary goal of many media outlets
.

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I guess the CDC is part of the "media outlets"? The CDC is saying it is coming and we must be prepared.
It is not saying to "panic" but to take the threat seriously and be prepared.

The position of some people (that the threat of pandemic is almost nil and don't worry) is irresponsible. This is a POTENTIALLY serious health issue and we shouldn't try to minimize that fact.

Just saw a report that Israeli Clinic is weeks away from a Vaccine. How would that change the equation?

It would need to undergo testing and then be mass produced. Wouldn't make an impact for a year.

OskiBear11Math said:

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It would need to undergo testing and then be mass produced. Wouldn't make an impact for a year.

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the roller coaster ride continues
NevadaBear builds up expectations
Then OskiBear brings them crashing down.

Actually, from a supply chain/logistics standpoint, it wouldn't be a bad idea to start stockpiling right away, ahead of the main panic, which is bound to hit in a few weeks. Stores would just replenish their inventory, and there will be less pressure on them when the main panic sets in. It would stagger their inventory cycle and it would also spur suppliers to step up their production for items like processed foods which have a pretty short production cycle with low inventories. It;s like buying your Christmas gifts in October or November in order to reduce the December crush.

TheFiatLux said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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TheFiatLux said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.

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Not dismissing the OP's concerns, but this "I'll mark you down..." cracked me up.

Also, curious, where in Eastern Oregon are you?

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I wasn't dismissing his concerns, I was more commenting on his tone. I think it could play out the way he suggests, but probably not as fast as he describes. We've been hearing about the virus for a while now and it still is in relatively small geographic areas. It hasn't really gotten established in the US, but he expects the maximum effects a month from now? I also think it could prove milder than he describes.

As for me, I live in Pendleton, OR.

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I', sorry, I didn't mean YOU were dismissing her ( believe the OP is a she) concerns, I meant I didn't want to do that :-) I still found your line funny :-)

I'm in Barcelona right now. A massive annual conference Mobile World Congress was canceled because of the virus. 100,000 attendees planned with all, basically, cancelled. The worry was that because such a huge # of attendees come in from China, it posed a great danger. So instead Barcelona is, pleasantly (not for merchants I'm sure) quiet.

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Last I checked the OP is definitely not a she, though xir pronouns are "xir", "xirself", and my spirit animal is the tasselled wobbegong, a shark species in the family Orectolobidae and the only member of its genus which inhabits shallow coral reefs off northern Australia, New Guinea, and adjacent islands.

Cal88 said:

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TheFiatLux said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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TheFiatLux said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.

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Not dismissing the OP's concerns, but this "I'll mark you down..." cracked me up.

Also, curious, where in Eastern Oregon are you?

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I wasn't dismissing his concerns, I was more commenting on his tone. I think it could play out the way he suggests, but probably not as fast as he describes. We've been hearing about the virus for a while now and it still is in relatively small geographic areas. It hasn't really gotten established in the US, but he expects the maximum effects a month from now? I also think it could prove milder than he describes.

As for me, I live in Pendleton, OR.

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I', sorry, I didn't mean YOU were dismissing her ( believe the OP is a she) concerns, I meant I didn't want to do that :-) I still found your line funny :-)

I'm in Barcelona right now. A massive annual conference Mobile World Congress was canceled because of the virus. 100,000 attendees planned with all, basically, cancelled. The worry was that because such a huge # of attendees come in from China, it posed a great danger. So instead Barcelona is, pleasantly (not for merchants I'm sure) quiet.

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Last I checked the OP is definitely not a she, though xir pronouns are "xir", "xirself", and my spirit animal is the tasselled wobbegong, a shark species in the family Orectolobidae and the only member of its genus which inhabits shallow coral reefs off northern Australia, New Guinea, and adjacent islands.

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I have enough trouble with IRL names, i have no change remembering who is a screen name. People disimissing you (you mihght be a tad over the top) though is silly. Seriously, this massive annual conferece in Barcelona, canceled. It's a big blow to their economy. This was a last minute trip decision for me ( a much needed long get away ) and so i was surprised when i saw rates at one of my favorite hotels (The Edition) so low. I jumped on it. United, I found out, actually had schedule flights specially from SFO to Barcelona but canceled those too. My flight to FRA was EMPTY. Not only did coach look to be only about 20% full, but there were several empty seats up in Polaris, which you never see.