Coronavirus and upcoming season

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Cal88
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5:19a, 2/26/20
The epidemic has started to spread outside of China and east Asia, school is cancelled in Milan, Italy, and championship soccer games last week have been played without any spectators. By March most soccer games in Europe will be played with empty stands. All classes in northern Italian universities have been suspended.

I will guess this virus will hit CA and N. America in March, and the maximum impact will be felt by April, with schools cancelled. I think the NCAA BB tourney will be disrupted, if it does go on at all, it will be in empty arenas.

The epidemic will present special challenges in large cities, with the large homeless population and overcrowded prisons that will turn into virtual quarantine wards.

I think the Tokyo Olympics will probably be cancelled or postponed to next Summer.

It's hard to assess the impact on the upcoming Fall football season, but chances are classes and finals will be cancelled this term, and Summer School might be cancelled as well.

This is an unprecedented black swan crisis, the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. I hope we can weather it with minimum losses. It seems like none of the western governments are taking it with the seriousness it deserves.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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6:27a, 2/26/20
I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.
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OskiBear11Math
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6:46a, 2/26/20
Our school seems to have bad luck launching capital campaigns. The last one was announced the week Lehman Brothers went under and now this upcoming one...
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Cal88
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8:18a, 2/26/20
Well at least this should not affect our incredibly slim BB postseason prospects.

It's probably a good idea to stock up on groceries now, before the panic buying hits CA, I would guess sometime in March or early April. Being ahead of the curve will also help stores stagger their inventories and make it easier on their supply chain logistics.
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TheFiatLux
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 8:20a, 2/26/20
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.
Not dismissing the OP's concerns, but this "I'll mark you down..." cracked me up.

Also, curious, where in Eastern Oregon are you?
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heartofthebear
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8:55a, 2/26/20
As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.
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Cal88
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9:37a, 2/26/20
Here's a good rundown on masks:

https://fastlifehacks.com/n95-vs-ffp/
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Blueblood
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In reply to heartofthebear • 9:38a, 2/26/20
heartofthebear said:
As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.


Don't forget to oil up your semi-automatic rifle and to stock up with plenty of ammo, too!
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golden sloth
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9:48a, 2/26/20
Everything I have read and heard have said masks dont really help you, just wash yours hands thoroughly (for twenty seconds or more under hot water and with soap).
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Cal88
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9:59a, 2/26/20
Read the article I've posted above.

Pandemic awareness growing in Europe, the US will catch up soon:




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KoreAmBear
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 10:01a, 2/26/20
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.
Nah I don't think it's too extreme a picture he is painting. It's well within a reasonable possibility. Chinese government can't get enough body bags and incinerator space in Wuhan. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed as soon as possible.
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nwbear84
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10:11a, 2/26/20
Masks are good for someone that is ill to help prevent them from spreading a virus. The exception of someone caring for or in close contact with an infected person(breathing in what they expectorate). Go to the CDC website for more on this.

Let's hope the usual summer effect kicks in to tamp down the spread. Although the reasons for this aren't entirely clear, likely a combination of things, California would appear to be an area where it would come into play early. Warmer, lots of sun(viamin D, UV), etc. Always amazing how much we don't know about how stuff works.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/#close
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Cal89
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10:36a, 2/26/20
True on most viruses and heat. As I recall, colder weather makes for a harder protective shell. In warmer temps, the shell softens and even become jelly-like, making it more vulnerable. Have no idea if that pertains to COVID-19...

That said, keep any on Singapore, where it's seemingly always hot. Also, they have much better than average medical care and controls than many/most countries, so if it flourishes there, I would find that somewhat telling.
Sig test...
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BearoutEast67
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10:56a, 2/26/20
I suppose you're a public health expert. Any updates on the El Nino/La Nina pattern for this year?
Donate to Cal's NIL at https://calegends.com/donation/
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ColoradoBear
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11:19a, 2/26/20
If the world/USA is in such a place that CFB games are being played in front of empty stadiums due to the coronavirus, we are going to have way bigger problems than whether games are played.
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510 Bear
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11:20a, 2/26/20
OK, I'll say it. This is another one of those OPs that I just thought would....keep going. "Not only will classes end, the University will shut down permanently." "Governments will collapse and the rule of law will disappear." "Complete human extinction will likely happen within 12 months."

I agree that governments should do all they reasonably can AND that the things mentioned in the OP are within the realm of possibility. But adding "chances are it'll happen" to any of it just seems far-fetched at this point.
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Cal88
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11:47a, 2/26/20
The mortality rate is about 2%, so the worst case scenario looks like something of the scale of the Spanish Flu (in absolute numbers that is), with around 100 million deaths worldwide. A huge catastrophe no doubt, but well short of an extinction event.

I've cancelled my vacation, was planning a trip to France and Italy in May.

In terms of numbers, the Koreans have a solid healthcare structure with reliable, transparent reporting (unlike in China), the number of cases there is now over 1000.

Japan has just cancelled all sporting events for the next two weeks.

This British doctor has a good daily report on COVID:



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Big C
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12:42p, 2/26/20
Ignorant question: So, they've identified the virus. Does that mean they can create a vaccine, like they do with influenza? How long does that take, a year or so? Can that time be shortened, in the case of a deadly pandemic, by investing more resources?
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LunchTime
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In reply to Big C • 1:33p, 2/26/20
Big C said:
Ignorant question: So, they've identified the virus. Does that mean they can create a vaccine, like they do with influenza? How long does that take, a year or so? Can that time be shortened, in the case of a deadly pandemic, by investing more resources?
I am not a doctor, but my understanding is that they have to find the monkey, bring the monkey to a lab, while preventing the government from nuking ground zero. Then they can take the monkey blood and the blood is the actual vaccine.

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Bear19
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1:39p, 2/26/20
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Bear19
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In reply to LunchTime • 1:42p, 2/26/20
LunchTime said:
I am not a doctor, but my understanding is that they have to find the monkey, bring the monkey to a lab, while preventing the government from nuking ground zero. Then they can take the monkey blood and the blood is the actual vaccine.
That's what Dustin Hoffman had to do, and hopefully this time we won't be trying to shoot down his helicopter or drop MOAB on Cal's football practice facilities.
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XXXBEAR
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2:02p, 2/26/20
Sorry this is not 1919.

It's good to be both prepared and cautious, but, the death rate is 2.5% affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Wash your hands, don't run yourself down, and you'll be fine, as it will be severely diluted by warmer weather like all influenzas.

No games cancelled here, and maybe this is an opportunity to redesign our reliance on China based supply chains.

(SF Chinatown reports business down by 60%.)
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OldenBear
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In reply to XXXBEAR • 2:12p, 2/26/20
XXXBEAR said:
Sorry this is not 1919.

It's good to be both prepared and cautious, but, the death rate is 2.5% affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Wash your hands, don't run yourself down, and you'll be fine, as it will be severely diluted by warmer weather like all influenzas.

No games cancelled here, and maybe this is an opportunity to redesign our reliance on China based supply chains.

(SF Chinatown reports business down by 60%.)


wait, some common sense? You mean the sky is not falling?
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79 Bear
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In reply to Big C • 2:22p, 2/26/20
Big C said:
Ignorant question: So, they've identified the virus. Does that mean they can create a vaccine, like they do with influenza? How long does that take, a year or so? Can that time be shortened, in the case of a deadly pandemic, by investing more resources?
I read today that they are racing to find a vaccine but it likely will not be available for 12-18 months. Apparently they don't have any candidates yet but even when they do they will have to test it for efficacy and side effects.
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bearister
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2:38p, 2/26/20
I got the Hong Hong flu in Dec. 1967 when I was a kid right after I saw McQueen in Bullitt. Wow, I was sick. I recently saw 1 million died from it.



From the article linked above about masks:


"...yes, (most) respirators can filter the coronavirus with high efficiency.

A recent paper shows that COVID-19 ranges from between 0.06 and 0.14 microns in size. Respirator's are measured by their efficiency at filtering particles of 0.3 microns and bigger (and COVID-19 is smaller than that).

This doesn't however mean that respirators can't filter smaller particles.

Paddy Robertson has written a great article on this subject, citing research showing that the respirators tested could filter down to 0.007 microns (much smaller than COVID-19). For example the 3M 8812 respirator (FFP1 rated) was able to filter 96.6% of particles 0.007 microns or larger. Suggesting FFP2 or FFP3 would achieve even greater filtration.

Additionally, this publication by 3M discusses research showing that N95 masks can efficiently filter as low as 0.05 microns."





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OzoneTheCat
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3:29p, 2/26/20
CALiforniALUM
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In reply to heartofthebear • 5:03p, 2/26/20
heartofthebear said:
As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.
Mostly any respiratory protection is placed on the sick person so they don't spread the flu. The healthy person will inhale what is already in the air.
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GoCal80
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6:22p, 2/26/20
For anyone interested in a short, informative article about the spread of viral pathogens, I recommend this article:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2002106?query=TOC&fbclid=IwAR0JGPAnrQN-wblaRg0lv4iw5SKG-healA9c83ZD9FtMj72sWmljet0TTOE
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Cal88
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In reply to XXXBEAR • 7:05p, 2/26/20
XXXBEAR said:
Sorry this is not 1919.

It's good to be both prepared and cautious, but, the death rate is 2.5% affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Wash your hands, don't run yourself down, and you'll be fine, as it will be severely diluted by warmer weather like all influenzas.

No games cancelled here, and maybe this is an opportunity to redesign our reliance on China based supply chains.

(SF Chinatown reports business down by 60%.)
So do you think that (1) China, Italy and S. Korea are overreacting to this epidemic that has spread in their countries, and that (2) this epidemic won't reach the US?
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kad02002
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7:41p, 2/26/20
Sorry to ask an obvious question - is the fear that this mutates and becomes a much deadlier strain?
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01Bear
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In reply to heartofthebear • 7:42p, 2/26/20
heartofthebear said:
As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.

Good luck getting masks. I spent much of this past month running around looking for face masks for family in Asia. I'm not the only one; just about every pharmacy I visited was out of face masks (in large part due to folks in the US sending masks overseas to Asia). Most stores/pharmacies are back ordered on face masks. When stores/pharmacies do get them in stock, the face masks sell out (literally) within minutes (even when purchase restrictions (e.g., one box of masks per person or household) are implemented). Prices for face masks on Amazon have skyrocketed, and even then most expected delivery dates are for several weeks out.
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01Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:50p, 2/26/20
Cal88 said:
XXXBEAR said:
Sorry this is not 1919.

It's good to be both prepared and cautious, but, the death rate is 2.5% affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Wash your hands, don't run yourself down, and you'll be fine, as it will be severely diluted by warmer weather like all influenzas.

No games cancelled here, and maybe this is an opportunity to redesign our reliance on China based supply chains.

(SF Chinatown reports business down by 60%.)
So do you think that (1) China, Italy and S. Korea are overreacting to this epidemic that has spread in their countries, and that (2) this epidemic won't reach the US?

To a certain extent, yes, there's a lot of overreacting. From what I've read online, the numbers really aren't known yet re transmission rates and fatality rates. But by most accounts, it doesn't appear the latter is higher than that of this year's flu virus. Yet, people are not panicking about the flu virus.

This isn't to say that Covid-19 isn't cause for alarm. The fact that an asymptomatic person can be a carrier and transmit the virus is worrisome. However, until the actual data is in on the transmission and fatality rates, a lot of the actions taken (including the declarations of states of emergency in some California cities and counties) seem to be more out of "an abundance of caution" and for prevention rather than out of medical necessity.

Also, by definition, the virus has spread to the U.S., as there are reported cases of patients with the Covid-19 virus within our borders.
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bipolarbear
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8:40p, 2/26/20
The 2011 movie "Contagion" with all star cast is very timely. Entertaining as well. Eerily prescient down to the bat guano ground zero in China.
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heartofthebear
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In reply to Blueblood • 9:25p, 2/26/20
Blueblood said:
heartofthebear said:
As a practical point: Does anybody know how to directly contact the San Jose airport in California and Alaska airlines on this? I am due to fly to Maui on March 7 and return on March 14. I'm assuming things will be a little different than last November when I did the same thing. I'm also wondering if we should wear masks on the flight and, if so, what specific model is recommended.


Don't forget to oil up your semi-automatic rifle and to stock up with plenty of ammo, too!
sorry I asked
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to TheFiatLux • 10:47p, 2/26/20
TheFiatLux said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.
Not dismissing the OP's concerns, but this "I'll mark you down..." cracked me up.

Also, curious, where in Eastern Oregon are you?
I wasn't dismissing his concerns, I was more commenting on his tone. I think it could play out the way he suggests, but probably not as fast as he describes. We've been hearing about the virus for a while now and it still is in relatively small geographic areas. It hasn't really gotten established in the US, but he expects the maximum effects a month from now? I also think it could prove milder than he describes.

As for me, I live in Pendleton, OR.
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