"Every Chinese Region Except Hubei" .... "Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln...."Cal88 said:
They've got other things to worry about than their long term demography right now... Bringing this thread back to the main issue, and the subject of China, trom the great Tomas Pueyo article I've linked in the other thread
"The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:
Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn't. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every Chinese region before the end of February."
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
--------------------------------------------
Daniele Rugani, a player from Juventus (Turin), Italy's top soccer team, tested positive. His teammate and superstar player Cristiano Ronaldo just went on quarantine in his native island of Madeira and will not return to compete in the Champions League round of 16 next week vs Lyon. This is a major cultural milestone that will help change the popular mindset across Europe.
I think the CL will now be cancelled, as will the Italian championship, and the NCAA tourney will as well, the question is how long will they wait for that. The triggering event will be the first case from a student-athlete or staff, at that point the quarantine cascade will crater the event.
Coronavirus and upcoming season
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Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
TheFiatLux said:"Every Chinese Region Except Hubei" .... "Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln...."Cal88 said:
They've got other things to worry about than their long term demography right now... Bringing this thread back to the main issue, and the subject of China, trom the great Tomas Pueyo article I've linked in the other thread
"The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:
Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn't. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every Chinese region before the end of February."
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
--------------------------------------------
Daniele Rugani, a player from Juventus (Turin), Italy's top soccer team, tested positive. His teammate and superstar player Cristiano Ronaldo just went on quarantine in his native island of Madeira and will not return to compete in the Champions League round of 16 next week vs Lyon. This is a major cultural milestone that will help change the popular mindset across Europe.
I think the CL will now be cancelled, as will the Italian championship, and the NCAA tourney will as well, the question is how long will they wait for that. The triggering event will be the first case from a student-athlete or staff, at that point the quarantine cascade will crater the event.
On the scale of China, they could have had tens of millions dead, the whole theater would be wiped out, not just old Abe... That would have been the outcome if that cluster of tight flat curves in the graph above were more like the South Korea or Italy curves. They've proactively starved off the epidemic by locking down their major cities before it could build up there, bending down and flattening the contagion curves in the rest of China:
They've also probably grossly underreported the death toll from Hubei province, but even there, it could have been orders of magnitude worse. They've totally flunked the first midterm but are acing the next two.
There are over 100,000 cases in Italy and France right now, in the US count could be in the 10,000-20,000 range and will shoot up beyond 100,000 barring very extreme social isolation measures implemented overnight (all schools, shops, flights, transit, offisces shut down). Everything so far has been reactive, and even then the reaction hasn't been that good (see testing). You can't properly react to an exponentially growing epidemic with a relatively high incubation period.
Can we donoate short positions? :-)Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
So Dr. Drew just pulled out his "we need to stop worrying about coronavirus" video, the guy is a clown and a lying hypocrite.Cal_79 said:
Here's today's report from a real doctor:
Cal88 said:So Dr. Drew just pulled out his "we need to stop worrying about coronavirus" video, the guy is a clown and a lying hypocrite.Cal_79 said:
USC Med School grad.
Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
Are you aware of when Cal launched its last major capital campaign? Does September 2008 ring any bells? Yeah, I'm standing by what I said. If we didn't have bad timing on fundraisings we wouldn't have any timing at all.Cal_79 said:Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
Many people are being adversely affected by this including many on these boards. I wish everyone the best. Hang in there.
So what you are saying is Cal has got to stop effing asking for money.Sebastabear said:Are you aware of when Cal launched its last major capital campaign? Does September 2008 ring any bells? Yeah, I'm standing by what I said. If we didn't have bad timing on fundraisings we wouldn't have any timing at all.Cal_79 said:Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
Basically it's the greatest short signal of all time. Our last two capital campaign launches have been epic economy ending disasters.OaktownBear said:So what you are saying is Cal has got to stop effing asking for money.Sebastabear said:Are you aware of when Cal launched its last major capital campaign? Does September 2008 ring any bells? Yeah, I'm standing by what I said. If we didn't have bad timing on fundraisings we wouldn't have any timing at all.Cal_79 said:Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
TandemBear said:OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!CALiforniALUM said:Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.Chabbear said:
Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.
Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!
-gun lobby position
(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")
CAMSHAFT
CRANKSHAFT
I hope this helps.
Patience is a virtue, but I’m not into virtue signaling these days.
Except that every fundraising campaign since at least the early 90's has been wildly successful (including the last one).Sebastabear said:Are you aware of when Cal launched its last major capital campaign? Does September 2008 ring any bells? Yeah, I'm standing by what I said. If we didn't have bad timing on fundraisings we wouldn't have any timing at all.Cal_79 said:Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
Well I guess it depends what we mean by "wildly successful." Cal has certainly overshot its stated goals, but as you know better than most those "goals" are set up to be exceeded. Most of the money is lined up before we even launch the campaign. Last thing anyone wants is a failed fundraising.UrsaMajor said:Except that every fundraising campaign since at least the early 90's has been wildly successful (including the last one).Sebastabear said:Are you aware of when Cal launched its last major capital campaign? Does September 2008 ring any bells? Yeah, I'm standing by what I said. If we didn't have bad timing on fundraisings we wouldn't have any timing at all.Cal_79 said:Sebastabear said:
And today is Cal's Big Give. Dow is down 2,200 points. Cal is absolutely snake bit on these things.
Cal is NOT absolutely snake bit on these things. On this thing (Big Give 2020}... Perhaps, perhaps not. But on these thingS, No.
I guess the question really boils down to what could Cal have raised but for launching in the teeth of a global meltdown. Always hard to counter-factually hypothesize, but I have to believe we could have done even better under sunnier skies. I continue to think Cal's endowment and fundraising should be much more robust given the wealth of the alumni (or at least the wealth the alumni had a month ago) and the academic brand.
Related note, is that this year's Big Give apparently raised 50% of what we raised in last year's Big Give. Not exactly a shock given the circumstances.
I'm still shorting the market next time Cal does one of these. I promise to give all the profits to Cal
Seems like this coronavirus thing is mainstream guys.
There wouldn't be any problem seating people 6 feet apart in the Club sections of Memorial Stadium. Just reassign everyone to encompass unsold seats. Have a lottery to see who gets to sit in the bench backs. Or have everyone bring a doctors note or a note from Blueblood or Cal by 7 or 7 of 9
What a great idea!oskidunker said:
There wouldn't be any problem seating people 6 feet apart in the Club sections of Memorial Stadium. Just reassign everyone to encompass unsold seats. Have a lottery to see who gets to sit in the bench backs. Or have everyone bring a doctors note or a note from Blueblood or Cal by 7 or 7 of 9
I would, of course, wear the neutral mask below so as to not upset anyone like oskidunker!
...maybe this one when Cal plays Cal Poly....
or maybe this one if you want to take pictures of me and Oski!
Blueblood said:
I would, of course, wear the neutral mask.. .. ..
...maybe this one when Cal plays Cal Poly....
dude, seriously, any of those enchanting masks gonna drive other bears away; well played.
muting ~250 handles, turnaround is fair play
Hoax.
I posted this in another thread but i thought i would post here.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:
Quote:
"What we learned from Ebola is that you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission...you need deep engagement with lcoal communities...
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good... The problem in society is everyone is afraid of making a mistake, being paralyzed by the fear of failure."
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
TheFiatLux said:
I posted this in another thread but i thought i would post here.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:Quote:
"What we learned from Ebola is that you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission...you need deep engagement with lcoal communities...
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good... The problem in society is everyone is afraid of making a mistake, being paralyzed by the fear of failure."
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
Up until a few days ago, many on Fox News were calling it a hoax or worse. What's your point?
NYCGOBEARS said:TheFiatLux said:
I posted this in another thread but i thought i would post here.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:Quote:
"What we learned from Ebola is that you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission...you need deep engagement with lcoal communities...
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good... The problem in society is everyone is afraid of making a mistake, being paralyzed by the fear of failure."
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
Up until a few days ago, many on Fox News were calling it a hoax or worse. What's your point?
I think the point was clear. There's been a failure of leadership at every level. The same people who say we should adhere to international directions and policies are now saying we should have acted on our own. I think that's intellectually disingenious.
Agreed, there has been a huge failure of leadership beginning with this administration.TheFiatLux said:NYCGOBEARS said:TheFiatLux said:
I posted this in another thread but i thought i would post here.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:Quote:
"What we learned from Ebola is that you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission...you need deep engagement with lcoal communities...
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good... The problem in society is everyone is afraid of making a mistake, being paralyzed by the fear of failure."
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
Up until a few days ago, many on Fox News were calling it a hoax or worse. What's your point?
I think the point was clear. There's been a failure of leadership at every level. The same people who say we should adhere to international directions and policies are now saying we should have acted on our own. I think that's intellectually disingenious.
It appears that this linked report is what is driving the thoughts on the virus worldwide.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
From the introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is now a major global health threat. As of 16thMarch 2020, there have been 164,837 cases and 6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide. Global spread has been rapid, with 146 countries now having reported at least one case. The last time the world responded to a global emerging disease epidemic of the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic with no access to vaccines was the 1918-19 H1N1 influenza pandemic
Results: In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB (Great Britain) and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic....In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US,....
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. ...In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US...
I encourage everyone to read the whole report or find a news article that summarizes it .
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
From the introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is now a major global health threat. As of 16thMarch 2020, there have been 164,837 cases and 6,470 deaths confirmed worldwide. Global spread has been rapid, with 146 countries now having reported at least one case. The last time the world responded to a global emerging disease epidemic of the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic with no access to vaccines was the 1918-19 H1N1 influenza pandemic
Results: In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB (Great Britain) and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic....In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US,....
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. ...In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US...
I encourage everyone to read the whole report or find a news article that summarizes it .
Hey folks, this has been a useful informational thread that the mods have left on the "main board". Maybe we could avoid politicizing it so it can remain here? There is a good "coronavirus politics" thread on the OT board.
The Trump haters are going to hate. It consumed there life. I am voting for Biden, thats my response
Let me start with this, because it probably had a hand in how it played out: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-bank-has-an-insurance-policy-against-virus-outbreaks-heres-why-it-hasnt-paid-out-2020-02-21TheFiatLux said:
I posted this in another thread but i thought i would post here.
I don't know if people realize this, but the WHO did not declare this a pandemic until 7 days ago. Read that again - 7 days ago. This virus that started in China in November (really who knows when given how opaque and untrustworthy official China is) began spreading like wildfire in January and for some reason the WHO wouldn't call it a pandemic DESPITE what their head of infectious diseases articulated:Quote:
"What we learned from Ebola is that you need to react quickly you need to go after the virus - you need to stop the chains of transmission...you need deep engagement with lcoal communities...
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good... The problem in society is everyone is afraid of making a mistake, being paralyzed by the fear of failure."
So after seeing what had happened in China, and knowing Chinese Communist officials had lied about early information, and I assume getting advice from their own world expert, the WHO didn't declare it a pandemic until just 7 days ago? Why? Maybe pressure from China not to? Look at Italy, they banned all incoming travel from China, but that was useless because none of the other EU countries did. So with unfettered travel between EU countries, anyone who had been infected in China could still b in Italy via any of the other countries. Again, what took the WHO so long to declare it a pandemic, which had they done earlier would have triggered all the EU countries to follow Italy and the US's lead in banning travel from China. This, in my humble opinion, is malfeasance of the highest order.
And now the Chinese are starting this astounding disinfomration campaign to try and convince the world the virus started in the US. All the while controlling 97% of the antibiotics we need. That's insane. And it didn't start with Trump... It goes back to policies implemented and supported by Obama and Bush. The abdication of responsibility to the citizens of this country is deep and across party lines.
It's insane.
Anyway; it wasnt a pandemic until it spread "pan." In China it was an epidemic not a pandemic. The spread in other countries didnt start until March, until then it was all people who got it from China. Once it starts spreading in other countries, and not local outbreaks, they can call it a Pandemic. So, it effectively took them 7 days (the first week in March) to assess the data and discover that new cases were not travel related, and that it was not hyperlocalized outbreaks like SARS in Toronto in 2003. Then they called it a Pandemic. That doesnt seem out of line to me.
Maybe the disconnect is that in non-scientific specific language - it was OBVIOUSLY a pandemic, or at the very least was relatively obvious that it would become a pandemic. But Pandemic isnt just a dictionary definition. The WHO needs to see specific things to call it a Pandemic (you can see what that looks like with the link). That doesnt mean the countries around the world couldnt prepare like it was inbound. We didnt allow travel for Ebola, and that was when it was a small outbreak.
I do agree that we need to decouple our economy from China during this coming recession.
oskidunker said:
The Trump haters are going to hate. It consumed there life. I am voting for Biden, thats my response
"Many people are saying 'Trump
haters' are fake news. Remember
I gave myself a '10', a perfect
score!"
Send me the money so I can donate it to Uncle Joe. PERIOD!
Big C made the point that to keep this thread on the Growls board, we should keep politics out of it. Every post that followed was more or less about politics...
UrsaMajor said:
Big C made the point that to keep this thread on the Growls board, we should keep politics out of it. Every post that followed was more or less about politics...
Well, my kids don't listen to me either, half the time...
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