510 Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

They can set up the rest the classes on an online format for the rest of the semester, with streamed lectures, and have the students do take home finals/final projects.

The campus leadership should set up a task force that quickly teaches and enables lecturers to conduct streaming/podcasting for the rest of the term.

---

As someone who has worked in higher ed for awhile.... "easier said than done". It's not as simple as pushing a button. There's a lot that goes into knowing how to deliver a meaningful class through an entirely different format.

A small number of faculty at Cal, UCLA, and elsewhere are already teaching online OR are tech-savvy enough to put together a plan quickly. For the vast majority of them, it'll be a sh!^show. Some of them (mainly the older types) can barely post assignments on Blackboard/Canvas or send an email without stumbling all over themselves. Asking them to flip their entire classes to online format on short notice is about as realistic as training your cat to ride a motorcycle.

It'd be a huge challenge if your typical university administrators had their acts together and had the ability to respond to things like this quickly and in the interest of all stakeholders including faculty and students. Long story short - 99.9% of them don't. (They're great at protecting their ability to earn huge salaries, which is why they'll issue the vague and unsupported mandate to faculty to "finish their classes online" sooner rather than later, to head off "bad PR" threats and legal threats.)

It sounds like this is already turning into a dumpster fire at UW and furd. The same will happen pretty much everywhere when most other universities follow suit. For once I agree with one of Cal88's grim predictions. High five! Wait, the CDC probably discourages that, never mind.

---

I disagree with pejorative criticisms of the various administrations' failure to foresee and prepare for every eventuality.

1 First of all there have been a number of events that have required attention from the administrations: potential earthquakes; unsafe air quality due to wildfires; blackouts due to local utility; shooters on campus and resulting campus lockdowns; violent demonstrations on and near campuses. and now pandemics. Each of these has presented its own distinct challenges for the campuses
involved and the campus led have been called on the carpet for failing to be fully prepared and ready to take immediate action to protect the campus, the students, people on campus and every persons' constitutional rights with a minimum of expense and disruption to everyone involved.

2. Except for earthquakes and fires around campus and protests on campus, Many of these emergencies are obvious only in hindsight.

3. The administration has been deprived of adequate funding and personnel and resources to do its principal function of educating and housing its students (let alone these other emergencies).

So maybe we should cut the various administrations some slack. Yes something must be done and must be done quickly. But let's not add insult to injury

LunchTime said:

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72CalBear said:

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TandemBear said:

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BancroftBear93 said:

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72CalBear said:

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Cal89 said:

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I suppose quite a few have stocked-up on food and supplies recently. We have what we call our family "store" in the garage, basically shelves of goods that we transition into the kitchen. We are always pretty well-stocked, including respirators and N95 masks purchased well after the last outbreak, before this one...

Speaking of stock, plenty of shares available for those with the stomach! S&P 500 did a nice, predictable bounce moments ago just above 3,000 (support/resistance spot), triggering some buys for me. Have more at lower prices, should the downtrend continue...

---

Yes, my family has been involved in "prepping" since Y2K. One tip however. Don't advertise what you have to others that you may not know well or trust. In reading over a dozen disaster preparedness books, I found the last chapters usually devoted to "protecting your stuff". The common theme being, when people get desperate (thirsty, hungry, etc), things can turn bad quickly. My advice is to come to some agreement with fellow preppers, who you need to trade with and support, but keep this very private. Some preppers even disguise their caches and hide what they have.

---

Ah. There's the rub. You prepped, while the idiots did not. The ants and the grasshoppers. You were right all along. Now they beg and when you deny them, they storm your castle. What do you rain down on them, lead and righteous indignation or food and compassion?

---

And unfortunately, the unprepared are just as well armed as you, or better!

---

For those of you who live with people who are also "prepared" somewhat and aren't prone to crime in general - good on you! Go ahead and open your caches for all to share! You know, your dehydrated yogurt for someone's 1/2 pint of brandy, or whatever. But when the "other" neighbors who simply want all of our stuff arrive - or else! What then? Home protection shotguns blaring?? No one is saying that people are "idiots" for not preparing, but you need to set some boundaries for the essentials to keep YOUR family alive and safe.

The severed supply chain surely can or will affect our supplies (find any water, Clorox or TP at Cosco today?) - including food, medicine, etc. Manufacturers get viruses too. Gasoline? Energy workers quarantined?

No, it's not Armageddon, but unlike our typically localized natural emergencies, where there is outside help via the outside, a real "national health emergency" can be quite isolating - especially when the workforce and supply avenues are shut down.

So, if you want to share your stuff and be compassionate, please send me your full address and when I run out of anything, I'll come over. The ARC won't be answering their phones, and neither will the power companies. Amazon is already keeping employees home. And by the way, stockpile school texts and be prepared to teach your kids like you expect us teachers to do in emergencies.

---

Sorry, the first one I can let go, but the scenario you are presenting is a fantasy. I have read the guide books, too. They are written as apocalyptic fiction.

There are all kinds of levels to prep, but the mad max scenario you think you'll survive because you didn't tell your friends you had 3 months or 3 years of food doesn't exist. Starving people recognize non starving people.

TBH any prep that isnt the gym, being a mechanic and primitive survival isn't SHTF prep. Food and water is a short term supply disruption solution.

---

If the gun lovers and tax cutters get their way, this fantasy will come true. (It actually kind of already is, with the homeless encampments. "They OBVIOUSLY should have prepared better!")

Decimate critical services, agencies and infrastructure and you get a self-fulfilling prophecy!

TandemBear said:

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LunchTime said:

---

72CalBear said:

---

TandemBear said:

---

BancroftBear93 said:

---

72CalBear said:

---

Cal89 said:

---

I suppose quite a few have stocked-up on food and supplies recently. We have what we call our family "store" in the garage, basically shelves of goods that we transition into the kitchen. We are always pretty well-stocked, including respirators and N95 masks purchased well after the last outbreak, before this one...

Speaking of stock, plenty of shares available for those with the stomach! S&P 500 did a nice, predictable bounce moments ago just above 3,000 (support/resistance spot), triggering some buys for me. Have more at lower prices, should the downtrend continue...

---

Yes, my family has been involved in "prepping" since Y2K. One tip however. Don't advertise what you have to others that you may not know well or trust. In reading over a dozen disaster preparedness books, I found the last chapters usually devoted to "protecting your stuff". The common theme being, when people get desperate (thirsty, hungry, etc), things can turn bad quickly. My advice is to come to some agreement with fellow preppers, who you need to trade with and support, but keep this very private. Some preppers even disguise their caches and hide what they have.

---

Ah. There's the rub. You prepped, while the idiots did not. The ants and the grasshoppers. You were right all along. Now they beg and when you deny them, they storm your castle. What do you rain down on them, lead and righteous indignation or food and compassion?

---

And unfortunately, the unprepared are just as well armed as you, or better!

---

For those of you who live with people who are also "prepared" somewhat and aren't prone to crime in general - good on you! Go ahead and open your caches for all to share! You know, your dehydrated yogurt for someone's 1/2 pint of brandy, or whatever. But when the "other" neighbors who simply want all of our stuff arrive - or else! What then? Home protection shotguns blaring?? No one is saying that people are "idiots" for not preparing, but you need to set some boundaries for the essentials to keep YOUR family alive and safe.

The severed supply chain surely can or will affect our supplies (find any water, Clorox or TP at Cosco today?) - including food, medicine, etc. Manufacturers get viruses too. Gasoline? Energy workers quarantined?

No, it's not Armageddon, but unlike our typically localized natural emergencies, where there is outside help via the outside, a real "national health emergency" can be quite isolating - especially when the workforce and supply avenues are shut down.

So, if you want to share your stuff and be compassionate, please send me your full address and when I run out of anything, I'll come over. The ARC won't be answering their phones, and neither will the power companies. Amazon is already keeping employees home. And by the way, stockpile school texts and be prepared to teach your kids like you expect us teachers to do in emergencies.

---

Sorry, the first one I can let go, but the scenario you are presenting is a fantasy. I have read the guide books, too. They are written as apocalyptic fiction.

There are all kinds of levels to prep, but the mad max scenario you think you'll survive because you didn't tell your friends you had 3 months or 3 years of food doesn't exist. Starving people recognize non starving people.

TBH any prep that isnt the gym, being a mechanic and primitive survival isn't SHTF prep. Food and water is a short term supply disruption solution.

---

If the gun lovers and tax cutters get their way, this fantasy will come true. (It actually kind of already is, with the homeless encampments. "They OBVIOUSLY should have prepared better!")

Decimate critical services, agencies and infrastructure and you get a self-fulfilling prophecy!

---

LoL. No.

GivemTheAxe said:

---

I disagree with pejorative criticisms of the various administrations' failure to foresee and prepare for every eventuality.

1 First of all there have been a number of events that have required attention from the administrations: potential earthquakes; unsafe air quality due to wildfires; blackouts due to local utility; shooters on campus and resulting campus lockdowns; violent demonstrations on and near campuses. and now pandemics. Each of these has presented its own distinct challenges for the campuses
involved and the campus led have been called on the carpet for failing to be fully prepared and ready to take immediate action to protect the campus, the students, people on campus and every persons' constitutional rights with a minimum of expense and disruption to everyone involved.

2. Except for earthquakes and fires around campus and protests on campus, Many of these emergencies are obvious only in hindsight.

3. The administration has been deprived of adequate funding and personnel and resources to do its principal function of educating and housing its students (let alone these other emergencies).

So maybe we should cut the various administrations some slack. Yes something must be done and must be done quickly. But let's not add insult to injury

---

You're right. Sometimes - especially during frustrating situations like these - we say things that go too far AND that we don't mean, which is why I very much meant the apology I posted a bit before you responded.

Your third point is closest to what I was trying to get at. In some cases, the people at the very top of the pyramid - who I was alluding to with the "big salaries" comment - have made all of this difficult by not providing the troops below them with what they need to do the job. But it was never my intent to bad-mouth chancellors and deans at other schools who are doing it the right way, nor those people a little further down the chain who are putting in crazy hours, NOT for huge salaries, to try to make so many things happen quickly as well as deal with a bunch of pissed off people at the same time.

Likewise, while there are a few faculty out there who don't put in a lot of effort into classes and won't start now, many more, both young and old, are also working like crazy right now to come up with their own plan B.

In the interest of correcting my earlier misinformation, I've found several examples of schools with impressive coronavirus plans in place already, including the U of Iowa:
https://coronavirus.uiowa.edu/

Go Hawkeyes and Go Bears.

Stupid know-nothing Bill Gates at it again...

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/08/gates-foundation-backed-program-will-soon-be-issuing-home-testing-kits-for-covid-19-in-seattle/

510 Bear said:

---

GivemTheAxe said:

---

I disagree with pejorative criticisms of the various administrations' failure to foresee and prepare for every eventuality.

1 First of all there have been a number of events that have required attention from the administrations: potential earthquakes; unsafe air quality due to wildfires; blackouts due to local utility; shooters on campus and resulting campus lockdowns; violent demonstrations on and near campuses. and now pandemics. Each of these has presented its own distinct challenges for the campuses
involved and the campus led have been called on the carpet for failing to be fully prepared and ready to take immediate action to protect the campus, the students, people on campus and every persons' constitutional rights with a minimum of expense and disruption to everyone involved.

2. Except for earthquakes and fires around campus and protests on campus, Many of these emergencies are obvious only in hindsight.

3. The administration has been deprived of adequate funding and personnel and resources to do its principal function of educating and housing its students (let alone these other emergencies).

So maybe we should cut the various administrations some slack. Yes something must be done and must be done quickly. But let's not add insult to injury

---

You're right. Sometimes - especially during frustrating situations like these - we say things that go too far AND that we don't mean, which is why I very much meant the apology I posted a bit before you responded.

Your third point is closest to what I was trying to get at. In some cases, the people at the very top of the pyramid - who I was alluding to with the "big salaries" comment - have made all of this difficult by not providing the troops below them with what they need to do the job. But it was never my intent to bad-mouth chancellors and deans at other schools who are doing it the right way, nor those people a little further down the chain who are putting in crazy hours, NOT for huge salaries, to try to make so many things happen quickly as well as deal with a bunch of pissed off people at the same time.

Likewise, while there are a few faculty out there who don't put in a lot of effort into classes and won't start now, many more, both young and old, are also working like crazy right now to come up with their own plan B.

In the interest of correcting my earlier misinformation, I've found several examples of schools with impressive coronavirus plans in place already, including the U of Iowa:
https://coronavirus.uiowa.edu/

Go Hawkeyes and Go Bears.

---

Thank you for your post.
Sorry if I sounded a little shrill.
But I do some fund raising for Cal. I know how hard many many people at Cal are working and how much they care for the students and how little support they receive from the CA legislature.
One example was former Governor Brown's decision to force Cal to accept 1,000 additional New students while giving Cal little new additional financial support to handle these new students.
Enough said.
Go Bears

GivemTheAxe said:

---

510 Bear said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

They can set up the rest the classes on an online format for the rest of the semester, with streamed lectures, and have the students do take home finals/final projects.

The campus leadership should set up a task force that quickly teaches and enables lecturers to conduct streaming/podcasting for the rest of the term.

---

As someone who has worked in higher ed for awhile.... "easier said than done". It's not as simple as pushing a button. There's a lot that goes into knowing how to deliver a meaningful class through an entirely different format.

A small number of faculty at Cal, UCLA, and elsewhere are already teaching online OR are tech-savvy enough to put together a plan quickly. For the vast majority of them, it'll be a sh!^show. Some of them (mainly the older types) can barely post assignments on Blackboard/Canvas or send an email without stumbling all over themselves. Asking them to flip their entire classes to online format on short notice is about as realistic as training your cat to ride a motorcycle.

It'd be a huge challenge if your typical university administrators had their acts together and had the ability to respond to things like this quickly and in the interest of all stakeholders including faculty and students. Long story short - 99.9% of them don't. (They're great at protecting their ability to earn huge salaries, which is why they'll issue the vague and unsupported mandate to faculty to "finish their classes online" sooner rather than later, to head off "bad PR" threats and legal threats.)

It sounds like this is already turning into a dumpster fire at UW and furd. The same will happen pretty much everywhere when most other universities follow suit. For once I agree with one of Cal88's grim predictions. High five! Wait, the CDC probably discourages that, never mind.

---

I disagree with pejorative criticisms of the various administrations' failure to foresee and prepare for every eventuality.

1 First of all there have been a number of events that have required attention from the administrations: potential earthquakes; unsafe air quality due to wildfires; blackouts due to local utility; shooters on campus and resulting campus lockdowns; violent demonstrations on and near campuses. and now pandemics. Each of these has presented its own distinct challenges for the campuses
involved and the campus led have been called on the carpet for failing to be fully prepared and ready to take immediate action to protect the campus, the students, people on campus and every persons' constitutional rights with a minimum of expense and disruption to everyone involved.

2. Except for earthquakes and fires around campus and protests on campus, Many of these emergencies are obvious only in hindsight.

3. The administration has been deprived of adequate funding and personnel and resources to do its principal function of educating and housing its students (let alone these other emergencies).

So maybe we should cut the various administrations some slack. Yes something must be done and must be done quickly. But let's not add insult to injury

---

I see where you're coming from GivemtheAxe, there is plenty to criticize about the CA legislature, but I disagree here, if anything college administrations are bloated today, and are veering off their basic mission with tuition rising out of control and students riddled with debt (though Cal is still a decent value for in-state students).

The decision here, to PROACTIVELY shut down classes AHEAD of the incoming pandemic peak in an effort to gain time and widen its peak, which could save thousands of lives by reducing pressure on the healthcare system, that decision is very clear. All that the administrators need here is some foresight and a bit of courage. Huge kudos to Furd for setting the tone and being ahead of the curve, perhaps the input from their excellent medical school might have helped them make that courageous decision.

The U. of Iowa's response of "closely monitoring the situation" is not smart, due to the incubation period where people are contagious but asymptomatic. They should instead give their profs one week to prepare for setting up study guides and changing the classes to an online/remote format as much as possible, working with their faculty and teaching assistants over the next few weeks to help salvage the rest of the term.

Classes will be suspended across the US by the end of the month, all schools and colleges will eventually shut down, the sooner it is done, the better, 2 or 3 weeks makes a big difference, with college dorms being potential incubators, and college students being highly mobile potential vectors who could spread the disease to their families and hometowns.

Once again I recommend this channel for daily coverage of the epidemic, from John Campbell a British doctor, who distills a lot of useful information and analyses into his short daily updates, and does so from a fairly even-keeled and conservative (in the proper sense) perspective:

Cal88 said:

---

Once again I recommend this channel for daily coverage of the epidemic, from John Campbell a British doctor, who distills a lot of useful information and analyses into his short daily updates, and does so from a fairly even-keeled and conservative (in the proper sense) perspective:

---

Thanks Cal88. Good stuff. He explains in easy to understand reasons "why"

I also listened to his YouTube on Vitamin D, which I have taken massive doses of for years after prostate CA diagnosis and treatment. His maintainence of it stimulating immune systems has been an added element in my tool kit to fight the big bad CA.

My next question for the colleges that are closing down (proactively, not because of a connection to the virus):

Places like Stanfurd -- Edit: and Cal too now, apparently -- you say that it's just for the rest of this term (Winter Quarter, ending in a few weeks), but this thing is only getting worse over the short-term. Highly unlikely you open back up in April. So you're "on-line only" through June? What about in the Fall?

(not questioning the wisdom of shutting down, just wondering when this will all end)

Big C said:

---

My next question for the colleges that are closing down (proactively, not because of a connection to the virus):

Places like Stanfurd, you say that it's just for the rest of this term (Winter Quarter, ending in a few weeks), but this thing is only getting worse over the short-term. Highly unlikely you open back up in April. So you're "on-line only" through June? What about in the Fall?

(not questioning the wisdom of shutting down, just wondering when this will all end)

---

Furd will probably only have online classes for their Sp quarter. I don't think Cal will have regular Summer school either.

One silver lining here is that this will show one way forward to cheaper higher education.

One huge wildcard here is whether we will see the same pattern observed in the Spanish Flu, where the first wave that built up in late Spring of 1918 wasn't nearly as deadly as the second one that hit the next Fall/Winter.

Riots are spreading across the Italian prison system, 6 dead in the northern city of Modena (apparently from the riots not the disease). Italian prisons are overcrowded, like those of many other countries.

This is what we are going to start seeing on a larger scale in the US, with a prison population that is 35 times larger than Italy, and a more violent prison population at that.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/inmates-die-prison-riots-coronavirus-rules-italy-200309125813658.html

This poses a dilemma, on one hand you want to send home non-violent criminals and those near the end of their sentences to reduce overcrowding and make the prison environment more manageable, but on the other hand law and order will be a major issue with looting, rioting and violent unrest potentially igniting in American cities if those that are prone to this behavior perceive that their crimes would go unpunished...

Cal88 said:

---

Big C said:

---

My next question for the colleges that are closing down (proactively, not because of a connection to the virus):

Places like Stanfurd, you say that it's just for the rest of this term (Winter Quarter, ending in a few weeks), but this thing is only getting worse over the short-term. Highly unlikely you open back up in April. So you're "on-line only" through June? What about in the Fall?

(not questioning the wisdom of shutting down, just wondering when this will all end)

---

Furd will probably only have online classes for their Sp quarter. I don't think Cal will have regular Summer school either.

One silver lining here is that this will show one way forward to cheaper higher education.

One huge wildcard here is whether we will see the same pattern observed in the Spanish Flu, where the first wave that built up in late Spring of 1918 wasn't nearly as deadly as the second one that hit the next Fall/Winter.

---

Again, I'm not saying that can't happen but the Spanish flu pandemic had other challenges-specifically WWI and not only were countries not working together but they were literally not acknowledging it for fear of tipping off enemy countries that there was a weakness. And, it was ravaging the troops who were then bringing it home. Basically the world was far into the pandemic before countries took any action

We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

And there is the Lair of the Bear family camp.

I remember several years ago our week at the Lair was hit by what we affectionately called the Blue Flu. It went through the camp like a wildfire producing serious diarrhea that lasted for several days for those who got it. At the Lair, we all eat family style at crowed tables. There is a salad bar where we all help ourselves both at lunch and dinner. There are communal bathrooms and showers. There are numerous group activities for all age groups and a full camp gatherings where we all sit shoulder to shoulder to watch camp shows. Not the best model for avoiding infection from a pandemic.

We are now signing up for this year's camp and wonder if the camp will actually happen, and if it does, what special accommodations might they impose to protect the campers? If it doesn't, the Alumni Association will loose its major source of funding.

Cal88 said:

---

We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

---

Maybe, unless it turns out that it isn't. How many Americans have died because of obesity? How many because they didn't have access to affordable health care? Smoking?

It would be interesting to hear what Drew has to say about this data set below, or the estimate provided below by the American Hospital Association, I'd like to know what he will be saying in a month or so.

Perhaps he should also give a call to any doctor in Italy, like the one from Bergamo that Bearacus quoted on this thread, and tell them that they should stop worrying because CV is kind of like a flu, but not as bad...

Cal88 said:

---

It would be interesting to hear what Drew has to say about this data set below, or the estimate provided below by the American Hospital Association, I'd like to know what he will be saying in a month or so.

Perhaps he should also give a call to any doctor in Italy, like the one from Bergamo that Bearacus quoted on this thread, and tell them that they should stop worrying because CV is kind of like a flu, but not as bad...

---

Dr. Drew is a mass media figure and has no more insights than that preening 30 year old DO with zillions of subscribers on Youtube. Yes, we know home isolation is bad for business, and your handlers have told you to put out the feel-good message, but it's the only long-term solution, a fact well reflected in the new infection rates in China, Singapore and South Korea.

If more Americans had proficiency in an Asian or European language other than English and bothered to read, the collective opinion (and approach) on this would be much different. The fact is the CFR for this is 5% in Italy, which is a country with modern and accessible health care. That's an appalling number and is only partly explained by its aged population, particularly in the north. Il Corriere and La Repubblica provide very sobering commentary and statistics on a daily basis. While the information somewhat contrasts what's coming out of South Korea, it must be taken seriously. Meanwhile, back in the good old USofA...business as usual.

President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

Northside91 said:

---

Dr. Drew is a mass media figure and has no more insights than that preening 30 year old DO with zillions of subscribers on Youtube. Yes, we know home isolation is bad for business, and your handlers have told you to put out the feel-good message, but it's the only long-term solution, a fact well reflected in the new infection rates in China, Singapore and South Korea.

If more Americans had proficiency in an Asian or European language other than English and bothered to read, the collective opinion (and approach) on this would be much different. The fact is the CFR for this is 5% in Italy, which is a country with modern and accessible health care. That's an appalling number and is only partly explained by its aged population, particularly in the north. Il Corriere and La Repubblica provide very sobering commentary and statistics on a daily basis. While the information somewhat contrasts what's coming out of South Korea, it must be taken seriously. Meanwhile, back in the good old USofA...business as usual.

---

Exactly, Dr Drew is not only wrong here, he is downright reckless, sending the wrong message of callous complacency. If anything, his short-sighted approach is going to result in greater panic and chaos, once the epidemic builds up and the healthcare system starts getting overwhelmed, and people realize that they've been lied to. By the end of the month, everybody will know someone who is sick, or hear first-hand accounts from doctors, nurses and medical staffs reporting from the frontlines on the scale and nature of this crisis, and people like Drew will be exposed as irresponsible media figures, if not outright frauds.

Public figures like him need to prepare the public for the worst, essentially letting them know calmly and professionally that what is happening in Italy or Korea will inevitably happen here pretty soon, and start imparting on the public the importance of collectively taking temporary measures over the next month or two that will significantly reduce and slow down the peak and thus help save thousands of lives.


Contrast Dr. Drew's stance with the level-headed daily coverage and professional guidance provided by Dr. John Campbell:

OdontoBear66 said:

---

President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

---

I was reading a story about how the state run media in China (the only kind of media in China) was doing these puff stories on how President Xi has been amazing in his handling of the crisis...

Man, China is the USSR of the 60s-90s on steroids. I hope the world doesn't forget this and go back to business as usual once this passes (and it will pass). We need to relocate supply chains, demand human rights norms, put pressure on them to free political and religious dissenters, work to provide actual news (think Radio America during the cold war, put pressure on companies like Google et al to if not stop doing business there then at least shame them to honor their ridiculous mission statements etc.. Would be nice to have a Reagan-esque leader sho had clarity on the macro issues of right / not right.

OdontoBear66 said:

---

President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

---

First of all Odonto congrats for staving off the big C (not referring to one of our favorite posters here of course) and keep up the good fight.

I think China has definitely reached an inflection point in their fight against CV, with numbers declining drastically. We can't completely trust their figures, there is some fudging there (particularly early on where they might have underreported their fatalities) but we are seeing the same positive containment trend in S. Korea, which has installed similar drastic containment and control measures, with full compliance by the general public, and their reporting is very transparent and accurate.

China flunked its first midterm, then hunkered down and aced the next two. To their credit they've had a rough midterm for which they weren't prepared being ground zero, while we are about to flunk our first midterm with an exam where we can find out all the answers.

The question is how long does China keep its major metropoles under lockdown, I think they have to bite the bullet and keep that level of extreme behavior for a few more months, they can't afford a letdown, that seems to be the nature of the beast.

Business is business. Nothing will change. Let's go play golf and get drunk.

Bobodeluxe said:

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Business is business. Nothing will change. Let's go play golf and get drunk.

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Channeling your inner Peggy Lee!

Cal88 said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

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First of all Odonto congrats for staving off the big C (not referring to one of our favorite posters here of course) and keep up the good fight.

I think China has definitely reached an inflection point in their fight against CV, with numbers declining drastically. We can't completely trust their figures, there is some fudging there (particularly early on where they might have underreported their fatalities) but we are seeing the same positive containment trend in S. Korea, which has installed similar drastic containment and control measures, with full compliance by the general public, and their reporting is very transparent and accurate.

China flunked its first midterm, then hunkered down and aced the next two. To their credit they've had a rough midterm for which they weren't prepared being ground zero, while we are about to flunk our first midterm with an exam where we can find out all the answers.

The question is how long does China keep its major metropoles under lockdown, I think they have to bite the bullet and keep that level of extreme behavior for a few more months, they can't afford a letdown, that seems to be the nature of the beast.

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Thanks 88, and if this is true, it is a very optimistic outlook. First reports I recall reading on the coronavirus (of course mention of same may have been stifled in China) were the end of December. If, through whatever measures they have taken it is abating (and I emphasize abating, not abated) at this time then if we can follow we should be looking mid to late April to be similarly postured. Now, South Korea is probably a better measure, as they are much more open about reporting, but they lagged China. Let us hope this is so.

Now, my optimism does not include the scenario where it is completely eradicated, but at least a much more hopeful prognosis for the long term.

Cal88 said:

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We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

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REALLY? Greater than dementia, which may affect 50% or more of those over 80??

UrsaMajor said:

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Cal88 said:

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We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

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REALLY? Greater than dementia, which may affect 50% or more of those over 80??

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In terms of actual social and economic disruption and shock to the system, yes, no comparison, and I say that as someone who has had a parent who had been dealt one of the worst forms of Parkinsonian ailments, where the last 4-5 years of her life were extremely challenging (inability to swallow, total loss of balance, etc), but she had pretty good care throughout.

Now imagine having your 83 year old father coming down with pneumonia in May, with hospital ICU capacity already at 150%-200% and him parked on a stretcher in a crowded hallway with many other infected patients, struggling to breathe while waiting for a respirator. That's the picture we are starting to get from Italy, and what we might be looking at in the next couple of months.

UrsaMajor said:

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Cal88 said:

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We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

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REALLY? Greater than dementia, which may affect 50% or more of those over 80??

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The response to dementia has shown it isnt a challenge at all. It's hardly a healthcare concern except where to house them as they die, honestly. I dont like it, but I also dont see any serious effort to change it.

Obesity, (most) cancer, dementia etc isnt contagious. It's something that we do to ourselves or has been a part of individual lifecycles for the history of man. Pandemics are fundamentally different.

I am not sure why people are bringing up things we are putting in almost no effort at all to address, or things that are non acute or contagious. I won't catch the fat. I won't catch the cancer. I won't catch the dementia. Clearly a contagion spreading globally is a bigger challenge than people eating or old people doing what old people do (get cancer and lose their minds) when we have 3 analogues that were bigger and solved in most of our lifetimes.

Smallpox was eradicated in 1977. Mumps didn't have an effective vaccine until the 1960s. Polio had an outbreak in the US in 1979.

That's "our lifetime" and those three caused well known widespread and acute problems and spread from human to human.

TheFiatLux said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

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I was reading a story about how the state run media in China (the only kind of media in China) was doing these puff stories on how President Xi has been amazing in his handling of the crisis...

Man, China is the USSR of the 60s-90s on steroids. I hope the world doesn't forget this and go back to business as usual once this passes (and it will pass). We need to relocate supply chains, demand human rights norms, put pressure on them to free political and religious dissenters, work to provide actual news (think Radio America during the cold war, put pressure on companies like Google et al to if not stop doing business there then at least shame them to honor their ridiculous mission statements etc.. Would be nice to have a Reagan-esque leader sho had clarity on the macro issues of right / not right.

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I agree that punitive economic measures would be in order to create meaningful and permanent change, but the world is in too deep with China. When this passes, and it will for most, it will be business as usual.

Cal88 said:

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UrsaMajor said:

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Cal88 said:

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We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

---

REALLY? Greater than dementia, which may affect 50% or more of those over 80??

---

In terms of actual social and economic disruption and shock to the system, yes, no comparison, and I say that as someone who has had a parent who had been dealt one of the worst forms of Parkinsonian ailments, where the last 4-5 years of her life were extremely challenging (inability to swallow, total loss of balance, etc), but she had pretty good care throughout.

Now imagine having your 83 year old father coming down with pneumonia in May, with hospital ICU capacity already at 150%-200% and him parked on a stretcher in a crowded hallway with many other infected patients, struggling to breathe while waiting for a respirator. That's the picture we are starting to get from Italy, and what we might be looking at in the next couple of months.

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And that's Italy, where the elderly are comparatively valued. So how does that project for the US? For perspective, my dad is mentally and physically fit at 83 BUT....he's had three major primary cancers in 15 years and stands long odds on surviving a weeks-long bout of pneumonia. Very dicey situation, this one....and we're dithering.

Northside91 said:

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TheFiatLux said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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President Xi of China has declared victory over the coronavirus in Wuhan Province and has visited same.

This is a bit scary. First awareness of how bad it was in Wuhan was late Dec. Why does part of me remember Bush on the aircraft carrier in San Diego declaring victory in Iraq a bit early. We shall see.

---

I was reading a story about how the state run media in China (the only kind of media in China) was doing these puff stories on how President Xi has been amazing in his handling of the crisis...

Man, China is the USSR of the 60s-90s on steroids. I hope the world doesn't forget this and go back to business as usual once this passes (and it will pass). We need to relocate supply chains, demand human rights norms, put pressure on them to free political and religious dissenters, work to provide actual news (think Radio America during the cold war, put pressure on companies like Google et al to if not stop doing business there then at least shame them to honor their ridiculous mission statements etc.. Would be nice to have a Reagan-esque leader sho had clarity on the macro issues of right / not right.

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I agree that punitive economic measures would be in order to create meaningful and permanent change, but the world is in too deep with China. When this passes, and it will for most, it will be business as usual.

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It's like everyone knows that China is a bad actor but no companies or countries will take them on....

It's a bit of a heavy tangent in what is already a very heavy thread, but what you have to keep in mind wrt China is that every generation of Chinese people has been significantly better off than the previous one, and this should continue through the next several decades at the very least. Never in the modern history of civilization have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short time, with nearly 700 million formerly poor Chinese entering the modern middle class, and salaries at the bottom still rising fast.



Sure they've come from next to nothing, but compare the path of China with that of say, India, one of the world's oldest democracies, where there are still hundreds of millions living in abject poverty in the most socially stratified society, or the Philippines, which was one of the wealthiest countries in the region early last century.

The great majority of Chinese people accept their CCP contract of restrained political freedom in exchange for high economic growth and widely shared prosperity, a brighter future and a high level of order and social cohesion. Most of the mainlanders I know have this perspective.

You have to look at countries like China from their own perspective, for that country the 19th century through the middle of the 20th was one of the worst period in its 5,000 year history. That experience defines their current outlook and aspirations.

This being said, we better move back a lot of the manufacturing stateside, starting with pharmaceuticals, as part of a coherent national industrial strategy, neoliberalism has run its course, time to retire the "those jobs aren't coming back" mantra, which doesn't exist in wealthy industrialized countries like South Korea, Germany or northern Italy. There will be some silver linings out of this pandemic.

Bobodeluxe said:

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Business is business. Nothing will change. Let's go play golf and get drunk.

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As long as you stay 6 feet away from your fellow players and use cups for your birdy juice.

So a media-fueled panic is proper? Dr. Drew said it's best for people to listen to medical experts. He said the media needs to STFU and stop driving this frenzy. The media is all about getting eyeballs and ratings, not objective reporting. What exactly did he say that you believe is incorrect?