Chabbear said:

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Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

Cal88 said:

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It's a bit of a heavy tangent in what is already a very heavy thread, but what you have to keep in mind wrt China is that every generation of Chinese people has been significantly better off than the previous one, and this should continue through the next several decades at the very least. Never in the modern history of civilization have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short time, with nearly 700 million formerly poor Chinese entering the modern middle class, and salaries at the bottom still rising fast.



Sure they've come from next to nothing, but compare the path of China with that of say, India, one of the world's oldest democracies, where there are still hundreds of millions living in abject poverty in the most socially stratified society, or the Philippines, which was one of the wealthiest countries in the region early last century.

The great majority of Chinese people accept their CCP contract of restrained political freedom in exchange for high economic growth and widely shared prosperity, a brighter future and a high level of order and social cohesion. Most of the mainlanders I know have this perspective.

You have to look at countries like China from their own perspective, for that country the 19th century through the middle of the 20th was one of the worst period in its 5,000 year history. That experience defines their current outlook and aspirations.

This being said, we better move back a lot of the manufacturing stateside, starting with pharmaceuticals, as part of a coherent national industrial strategy, neoliberalism has run its course, time to retire the "those jobs aren't coming back" mantra, which doesn't exist in wealthy industrialized countries like South Korea, Germany or northern Italy. There will be some silver linings out of this pandemic.

---

China's demographics suggest that its recent prosperity is a house of cards that is likely to come crashing down in the next 20 years. Their productivity will slow simply because most people in the country will be beyond their productive years. The younger generations will be too few to keep the older generations from having a lower quality of life in retirement.

Contrast that to the US and we are relatively in a better position that most industrialized countries demographically. However, with declining birth rates and women waiting longer to have children, we are not immune to the same problems. This is why restrictive immigration policies are ridiculous. Prosperous industrialized countries need young innovative immigrants to keep the machine balanced and moving forward. We should be exporting politicians and importing people who want to work hard.

CALiforniALUM said:

---

Chabbear said:

---

Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!

Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!

-gun lobby position

(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")

CALiforniALUM said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

It's a bit of a heavy tangent in what is already a very heavy thread, but what you have to keep in mind wrt China is that every generation of Chinese people has been significantly better off than the previous one, and this should continue through the next several decades at the very least. Never in the modern history of civilization have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short time, with nearly 700 million formerly poor Chinese entering the modern middle class, and salaries at the bottom still rising fast.



Sure they've come from next to nothing, but compare the path of China with that of say, India, one of the world's oldest democracies, where there are still hundreds of millions living in abject poverty in the most socially stratified society, or the Philippines, which was one of the wealthiest countries in the region early last century.

The great majority of Chinese people accept their CCP contract of restrained political freedom in exchange for high economic growth and widely shared prosperity, a brighter future and a high level of order and social cohesion. Most of the mainlanders I know have this perspective.

You have to look at countries like China from their own perspective, for that country the 19th century through the middle of the 20th was one of the worst period in its 5,000 year history. That experience defines their current outlook and aspirations.

This being said, we better move back a lot of the manufacturing stateside, starting with pharmaceuticals, as part of a coherent national industrial strategy, neoliberalism has run its course, time to retire the "those jobs aren't coming back" mantra, which doesn't exist in wealthy industrialized countries like South Korea, Germany or northern Italy. There will be some silver linings out of this pandemic.

---

China's demographics suggest that its recent prosperity is a house of cards that is likely to come crashing down in the next 20 years. Their productivity will slow simply because most people in the country will be beyond their productive years. The younger generations will be too few to keep the older generations from having a lower quality of life in retirement.

Contrast that to the US and we are relatively in a better position that most industrialized countries demographically. However, with declining birth rates and women waiting longer to have children, we are not immune to the same problems. This is why restrictive immigration policies are ridiculous. Prosperous industrialized countries need young innovative immigrants to keep the machine balanced and moving forward. We should be exporting politicians and importing people who want to work hard.

---

Yep, Legal Immigration is a great thing and our politicians on both parties need to get their act together on this

"OINK!"

Run for your life! Here come
the medical experts!

CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

---

It's a bit of a heavy tangent in what is already a very heavy thread, but what you have to keep in mind wrt China is that every generation of Chinese people has been significantly better off than the previous one, and this should continue through the next several decades at the very least. Never in the modern history of civilization have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short time, with nearly 700 million formerly poor Chinese entering the modern middle class, and salaries at the bottom still rising fast.



Sure they've come from next to nothing, but compare the path of China with that of say, India, one of the world's oldest democracies, where there are still hundreds of millions living in abject poverty in the most socially stratified society, or the Philippines, which was one of the wealthiest countries in the region early last century.

The great majority of Chinese people accept their CCP contract of restrained political freedom in exchange for high economic growth and widely shared prosperity, a brighter future and a high level of order and social cohesion. Most of the mainlanders I know have this perspective.

You have to look at countries like China from their own perspective, for that country the 19th century through the middle of the 20th was one of the worst period in its 5,000 year history. That experience defines their current outlook and aspirations.

This being said, we better move back a lot of the manufacturing stateside, starting with pharmaceuticals, as part of a coherent national industrial strategy, neoliberalism has run its course, time to retire the "those jobs aren't coming back" mantra, which doesn't exist in wealthy industrialized countries like South Korea, Germany or northern Italy. There will be some silver linings out of this pandemic.

---

China's demographics suggest that its recent prosperity is a house of cards that is likely to come crashing down in the next 20 years. Their productivity will slow simply because most people in the country will be beyond their productive years. The younger generations will be too few to keep the older generations from having a lower quality of life in retirement.

Contrast that to the US and we are relatively in a better position that most industrialized countries demographically. However, with declining birth rates and women waiting longer to have children, we are not immune to the same problems. This is why restrictive immigration policies are ridiculous. Prosperous industrialized countries need young innovative immigrants to keep the machine balanced and moving forward. We should be exporting politicians and importing people who want to work hard.

---

but covid 19 will level the odds by wiping out the older generation.

Here's an interesting tidbit:
?quality=90&auto=webp

The Red Cross's poster addressing the 1918 Spanish Flu.

Nowhere on the poster does it say to do the MOST IMPORTANT THING to avoid spread:

Thoroughly wash your hands!

Keep your mouth and teeth clean, but go ahead and floss & brush with dirty hands! And we wonder why it infected the entire globe! Oh and be sure to cover your mouth when you cough and sneeze so you can pass along those pathogens to everything you touch!

I understand hand washing wasn't "discovered" until well after the 1918 plague. This seems to support this. Its omission must be a huge factor in the spread of the disease. It might be the single factor leading to the mortality rate if no one was washing hands!

Screw Dr. Drew - Poorman forever!

Cal88 said:

---

It's a bit of a heavy tangent in what is already a very heavy thread, but what you have to keep in mind wrt China is that every generation of Chinese people has been significantly better off than the previous one, and this should continue through the next several decades at the very least. Never in the modern history of civilization have so many people been lifted out of poverty in such a short time, with nearly 700 million formerly poor Chinese entering the modern middle class, and salaries at the bottom still rising fast.

---

That chart is for Urban China. Pretty sure quite a bit of the population is still rural non "urban"

Quote:

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but covid 19 will level the odds by wiping out the older generation.

---

And their kids will all breath a collective sigh of relief.

For the long term, I wonder if one of the lessons here is that this is one of nature's ways of telling us that the earth wasn't meant to handle 7+ billion human beings, especially when most of them are aspiring to the lifestyle of the American Dream in the 21st century (travel wherever you want, whenever you want, however you want... consume whatever you want, etc.).

Maybe COVID-19 is just the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

Big C said:

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For the long term, I wonder if one of the lessons here is that this is one of nature's ways of telling us that the earth wasn't meant to handle 7+ billion human beings, especially when most of them are aspiring to the lifestyle of the American Dream in the 21st century (travel wherever you want, whenever you want, however you want... consume whatever you want, etc.).

Maybe COVID-19 is just the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

---

We are the Rats of Nimh

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/the-doomed-mouse-utopia-that-inspired-the-rats-of-nimh

Mental health breakdowns, epidemics, etc.

Cal88 said:

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rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

---

I know its callous, but the gender problem and the lump of older parents with only one kid are huge issues to be played out for them. Thanks for the chart on the populations, very interesting!

I still think that nearish term China and India will be plagued by poor urban infrastructure due to corrupt and boondoggle construction. And we'll face somewhat the same if we don't do a good job of addressing infrastructure.

Big C said:

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For the long term, I wonder if one of the lessons here is that this is one of nature's ways of telling us that the earth wasn't meant to handle 7+ billion human beings, especially when most of them are aspiring to the lifestyle of the American Dream in the 21st century (travel wherever you want, whenever you want, however you want... consume whatever you want, etc.).

Maybe COVID-19 is just the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

---

It's just a matter of tweaking a few items in the economic model like planned obsolescence and recycling. Cars can run a quarter to a half million miles (see Volvos, Toyotas or Benz from the 1960s-80s), phones 5-10 years, fridges 30+ years, houses 200+ years etc.

There is no scarcity in food, agricultural production has kept up with the high growth in wold demand due to rising populations and wealth/consumption levels (peak farmland phenomenon).




World population will peak at around 9 billion and start declining. China alone will lose nearly half a billion people by the end of the century. The only major part of the world that is still experiencing very high demographic growth is sub-Saharan Africa.

Big C said:

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For the long term, I wonder if one of the lessons here is that this is one of nature's ways of telling us that the earth wasn't meant to handle 7+ billion human beings, especially when most of them are aspiring to the lifestyle of the American Dream in the 21st century (travel wherever you want, whenever you want, however you want... consume whatever you want, etc.).

Maybe COVID-19 is just the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

---

I don't agree with this view of humanity as it pertains to the earth. Like the assertion that climate change is earth's way of telling us there are too many of us. We are products of evolution and the earth, so our technology is too.

We have WAY exceeded any such "carrying capacity" of the planet by a large margin.

Thomas Hager in "The Alchemy of Air" argues the "natural" maximum earth population is about 3.5 billion, if memory serves. And I think that assertion is solely based on the "natural" earth crop production without utilizing synthesized nitrogen. But thanks to the Haber-Bosch process, we can produce fertilizer like there's no tomorrow (or at least 'till the oil runs out!). Our population of 7.5 billion is the result. WAY more than "should" be here.

Now add to that improvements in medical care, nutrition (admittedly debatable!), vaccines, and so many other human developments, we will continue to grow. Sure, catastrophe may befall us, but that's the case no matter how many humans live on earth. And one could argue that one well-placed asteroid says the earth's appropriate human population should be zero!

Plus, there seems to enter into a picture what the "right" number of people is. Well, that simply depends on how much technology we develop. In 100 years, I can't imagine we've furthered our technological prowess to bump the "max" population number considerably more.

If, for example, nuclear power becomes truly safe and easily manageable, then that will boost our standard of living and numbers as a result.

Not that it's a good thing. But it is what it is. I don't think we should feel guilty because we've exceeded some arbitrary population number.

Edit: One factor working strongly for controlled population is the apparent correlation between lower birth rates and prosperity. If we can bring up the average standard of living, we'll "outgrow" this problem, so to speak. So that may very well be the natural, humane attenuator we may be searching for.

TandemBear said:

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Big C said:

---

For the long term, I wonder if one of the lessons here is that this is one of nature's ways of telling us that the earth wasn't meant to handle 7+ billion human beings, especially when most of them are aspiring to the lifestyle of the American Dream in the 21st century (travel wherever you want, whenever you want, however you want... consume whatever you want, etc.).

Maybe COVID-19 is just the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

---

I don't agree with this view of humanity as it pertains to the earth. Like the assertion that climate change is earth's way of telling us there are too many of us. We are products of evolution and the earth, so our technology is too.

We have WAY exceeded any such "carrying capacity" of the planet by a large margin.

Thomas Hager in "The Alchemy of Air" argues the "natural" maximum earth population is about 3.5 billion, if memory serves. And I think that assertion is solely based on the "natural" earth crop production without utilizing synthesized nitrogen. But thanks to the Haber-Bosch process, we can produce fertilizer like there's no tomorrow (or at least 'till the oil runs out!). Our population of 7.5 billion is the result. WAY more than "should" be here.

Now add to that improvements in medical care, nutrition (admittedly debatable!), vaccines, and so many other human developments, we will continue to grow. Sure, catastrophe may befall us, but that's the case no matter how many humans live on earth. And one could argue that one well-placed asteroid says the earth's appropriate human population should be zero!

Plus, there seems to enter into a picture what the "right" number of people is. Well, that simply depends on how much technology we develop. In 100 years, I can't imagine we've furthered our technological prowess to bump the "max" population number considerably more.

If, for example, nuclear power becomes truly safe and easily manageable, then that will boost our standard of living and numbers as a result.

Not that it's a good thing. But it is what it is. I don't think we should feel guilty because we've exceeded some arbitrary population number.

Edit: One factor working strongly for controlled population is the apparent correlation between lower birth rates and prosperity. If we can bring up the average standard of living, we'll "outgrow" this problem, so to speak. So that may very well be the natural, humane attenuator we may be searching for.

---

pestilence vs. "human developments": the Earth Bowl!

the "trophy": a right-sized population

UrsaMajor said:

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Cal88 said:

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We also didn't have mass air travel a hundred years ago. It took almost two weeks to cross the Atlantic, and the incubation period of the Spanish Flu was just 2-7 days, shorter than that of covid19. Most people didn't have cars in 1918.

With technology and globalization, you have a much more mobile population and thus a much bigger challenge to contain this epidemic. You also have a global supply chain system that is very efficient but also very fragile, and a much higher rate of urbanization.

There are also some disturbing features of covid19 like its impact on the central nervous system, the heart tissue, and its long term effects that the Spanish Flu didn't have, though the extent of those features is not yet fully known.

It's pretty clear at this point that this is the greatest healthcare challenge the industrialized world has ever faced in our lifetimes.

---

REALLY? Greater than dementia, which may affect 50% or more of those over 80??

---

Last I checked, dementia isn't contagious, doesn't disrupt supply chains, and has a negligible impact on the global economy given that most people who get it are already out of the workforce.

TandemBear said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Chabbear said:

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Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!

Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!

-gun lobby position

(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")

---

We need to ban football. It's too violent,. In fact, just the other day I heard the announcer talk about how the player in charge of safety even hit the ball runner. If we can't even trust him to keep the players safe on the field, how can we expect offensive tacklers and white receivers to avoid hurting their fellow players?

- every sportsball fan

Cal88 said:

---

rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

---

Sorry, but how does your chart answer the question of what the demographic age distribution is among Chinese? There is ample evidence that by 2050 China will be one of the least "healthy" countries when it comes to age distribution of their population. Asia is expected to account for 62.3% of the population over 65 by 2050, followed by Europe at 12.6%. Prosperity will also depress birthrates in China, meaning that they are working uphill to keep their aging population supported.

CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

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rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

---

Sorry, but how does your chart answer the question of what the demographic age distribution is among Chinese? There is ample evidence that by 2050 China will be one of the least "healthy" countries when it comes to age distribution of their population. Asia is expected to account for 62.3% of the population over 65 by 2050, followed by Europe at 12.6%. Prosperity will also depress birthrates in China, meaning that they are working uphill to keep their aging population supported.

---

I've addressed ths here" [China's] demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy" but without delving deeper because it's off-topic here, here is the big picture:



Contrast with








China's age distribution issues are far less problematic that those of nearly every major industrialized country. As well, they have a reserve of 400 million rural population that they've been tapping to fuel their phenomenal urban-based industrial growth and will continue to tap in decades to come, they won't have any shortage of caregivers anytime soon. That's the picture in that graph above which projects the rural population to diminish.

Furthermore countries like China can more easily pivot culturally and successfully promote organic demographic growth/family policies through economic incentives and cultural campaigns, whereas in countries like Germany or S. Korea with collapsing demographies, women have been conditioned for two generations now to devalue family creation and prioritize their careers and independence, and that mindset is much harder to change, particularly with declining standards of living.

pingpong2 said:

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TandemBear said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Chabbear said:

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Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!

Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!

-gun lobby position

(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")

---

We need to ban football. It's too violent,. In fact, just the other day I heard the announcer talk about how the player in charge of safety even hit the ball runner. If we can't even trust him to keep the players safe on the field, how can we expect offensive tacklers and white receivers to avoid hurting their fellow players?

- every sportsball fan

---

I hope that's a typo!

UrsaMajor said:

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pingpong2 said:

---

TandemBear said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

---

Chabbear said:

---

Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!

Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!

-gun lobby position

(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")

---

We need to ban football. It's too violent,. In fact, just the other day I heard the announcer talk about how the player in charge of safety even hit the ball runner. If we can't even trust him to keep the players safe on the field, how can we expect offensive tacklers and white receivers to avoid hurting their fellow players?

- every sportsball fan

---

I hope that's a typo!

---

Nice catch! The scourge of spellcheck!!!

Meanwhile, Tom Hanks and his wife have announced they tested positive for COVID-19 and the NBA has just suspended their season (with Jazz' Rudy Gobert reportedly testing positive).

I'd have to say that Cal88 called this whole thing, even though I'm sure he'd rather be wrong.

Big C said:

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Meanwhile, Tom Hanks and his wife have announced they tested positive for COVID-19 and the NBA has just suspended their season (with Jazz' Rudy Gobert reportedly testing positive).

I'd have to say that Cal88 called this whole thing, even though I'm sure he'd rather be wrong.

---

Yep... and like so many who call something that isn't conventional wisdom, they're mocked and dismissed.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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I'll mark you down as being a "the glass is completely empty and broken too" guy.

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Cal88, you've been pretty much on the money so far. My apologies for being skeptical. I didn't think things could unravel as fast as they have been the last few days.

BearGreg said:

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Cal88 said:

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Once again I recommend this channel for daily coverage of the epidemic, from John Campbell a British doctor, who distills a lot of useful information and analyses into his short daily updates, and does so from a fairly even-keeled and conservative (in the proper sense) perspective:

---

Strongly urge everyone to watch this channel. Kudos to Cal88 for sharing.

---

Not to be dismissive, but the handwriting has been clearly on the wall for us for about 2 months. John Campbell has been on top of this for a while. The Italian press has been giving its readers a fair assessment of the gravity of this situation for several weeks, also. Better to be very discerning in your trusted sources, in all things but particularly in this. The WHO and CDC are tentative and politicized. Campbell may seem all doom and gloom to some, but he's very bright and has been dead on virtually from Day 1. I envy the people who draw comfort from the likes of Doctor Mike (big biceps, little brain) and Drew Pinsky (same comment).

UrsaMajor said:

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pingpong2 said:

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TandemBear said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Chabbear said:

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Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

OMG, OMG, OMG, you used the WRONG term for MAGAZINE!!!! If you don't know a clip from a magazine, then you're the dumbest, most ignorant person on the planet!

Therefore EVERY SINGLE THING YOU SAY IS WRONG!!!!!

-gun lobby position

(JUST KIDDING! Just pointing out that this is indeed the argument the pro gun crowd makes when a gun control advocate misuses some firearm term or uses improper terminology. It's the same as saying, "If you don't know a camshaft from a crankshaft, YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS SHARING YOUR OPINION ABOUT MOTOR VEHICLE SAFETY!!! CAR REGULATIONS ARE STUPID!")

---

We need to ban football. It's too violent,. In fact, just the other day I heard the announcer talk about how the player in charge of safety even hit the ball runner. If we can't even trust him to keep the players safe on the field, how can we expect offensive tacklers and white receivers to avoid hurting their fellow players?

- every sportsball fan

---

I hope that's a typo!

---

I actually witnessed someone at a super bowl party get incredulous about the commentators referring to Edelman as the "white receiver".

CALiforniALUM said:

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Chabbear said:

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Post-apocalyptic science fiction novels have been a trope for decades. One of the original ones, is a 1940s novel called Earth Abides by George Stewart where a disease kills about 99% of humanity and it takes place here in the East Bay. In fact, the protagonist goes to the Cal main library to find out how to build a bow and arrow set. The final scene is on the Golden Gate Bridge.

---

Is that on Netflix yet? I'd like to settle in with a bucket of popcorn and my uzi with an extra long clip.

---

He should have built a slingshot and learned how to kill fish. For his purposes, it would be about 75% as effective.

CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

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rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

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Sorry, but how does your chart answer the question of what the demographic age distribution is among Chinese? There is ample evidence that by 2050 China will be one of the least "healthy" countries when it comes to age distribution of their population. Asia is expected to account for 62.3% of the population over 65 by 2050, followed by Europe at 12.6%. Prosperity will also depress birthrates in China, meaning that they are working uphill to keep their aging population supported.

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I've addressed ths here" [China's] demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy" but without delving deeper because it's off-topic here, here is the big picture:



Contrast with








China's age distribution issues are far less problematic that those of nearly every major industrialized country. As well, they have a reserve of 400 million rural population that they've been tapping to fuel their phenomenal urban-based industrial growth and will continue to tap in decades to come, they won't have any shortage of caregivers anytime soon. That's the picture in that graph above which projects the rural population to diminish.

Furthermore countries like China can more easily pivot culturally and successfully promote organic demographic growth/family policies through economic incentives and cultural campaigns, whereas in countries like Germany or S. Korea with collapsing demographies, women have been conditioned for two generations now to devalue family creation and prioritize their careers and independence, and that mindset is much harder to change, particularly with declining standards of living.

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Take today for what it is worth, but fast forward China out 25 years and they will be in one of the worst circumstances demographically. I don't quite get why you think country level demographic data doesn't include rural China? It's not really the point that they have a rural population, it's that the population across the entire country is going to be top heavy in 25 years. As I noted more than 60% of the entire globe's population over the age of 60 by 2050 will be in Asia with much of that proportionally in China. China's total population is projected to be even smaller by then. I guess if you want to measure health based on today without any consideration for the future of that population I'll give you that. But I don't find your rational regarding they will just pull from 400 million rural citizens without recognizing that most of them will be old and not productive is ridiculous in my opinion.

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China is a dead man walking.

They've got other things to worry about than their long term demography right now... Bringing this thread back to the main issue, and the subject of China, trom the great Tomas Pueyo article I've linked in the other thread

"The rest of regions in China were well coordinated by the central government, so they took immediate and drastic measures. This is the result:



Every flat line is a Chinese region with coronavirus cases. Each one had the potential to become exponential, but thanks to the measures happening just at the end of January, all of them stopped the virus before it could spread.

Meanwhile, South Korea, Italy and Iran had a full month to learn, but didn't. They started the same exponential growth of Hubei and passed every Chinese region before the end of February."

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

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Daniele Rugani, a player from Juventus (Turin), Italy's top soccer team, tested positive. His teammate and superstar player Cristiano Ronaldo just went on quarantine in his native island of Madeira and will not return to compete in the Champions League round of 16 next week vs Lyon. This is a major cultural milestone that will help change the popular mindset across Europe.

I think the CL will now be cancelled, as will the Italian championship, and the NCAA tourney will as well, the question is how long will they wait for that. The triggering event will be the first case from a student-athlete or staff, at that point the quarantine cascade will crater the event.

BancroftBear93 said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

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CALiforniALUM said:

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Cal88 said:

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rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,

Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:


This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.

---

Sorry, but how does your chart answer the question of what the demographic age distribution is among Chinese? There is ample evidence that by 2050 China will be one of the least "healthy" countries when it comes to age distribution of their population. Asia is expected to account for 62.3% of the population over 65 by 2050, followed by Europe at 12.6%. Prosperity will also depress birthrates in China, meaning that they are working uphill to keep their aging population supported.

---

I've addressed ths here" [China's] demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy" but without delving deeper because it's off-topic here, here is the big picture:



Contrast with








China's age distribution issues are far less problematic that those of nearly every major industrialized country. As well, they have a reserve of 400 million rural population that they've been tapping to fuel their phenomenal urban-based industrial growth and will continue to tap in decades to come, they won't have any shortage of caregivers anytime soon. That's the picture in that graph above which projects the rural population to diminish.

Furthermore countries like China can more easily pivot culturally and successfully promote organic demographic growth/family policies through economic incentives and cultural campaigns, whereas in countries like Germany or S. Korea with collapsing demographies, women have been conditioned for two generations now to devalue family creation and prioritize their careers and independence, and that mindset is much harder to change, particularly with declining standards of living.

---

Take today for what it is worth, but fast forward China out 25 years and they will be in one of the worst circumstances demographically. I don't quite get why you think country level demographic data doesn't include rural China? It's not really the point that they have a rural population, it's that the population across the entire country is going to be top heavy in 25 years. As I noted more than 60% of the entire globe's population over the age of 60 by 2050 will be in Asia with much of that proportionally in China. China's total population is projected to be even smaller by then. I guess if you want to measure health based on today without any consideration for the future of that population I'll give you that. But I don't find your rational regarding they will just pull from 400 million rural citizens without recognizing that most of them will be old and not productive is ridiculous in my opinion.

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China is a dead man walking.

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They will have a workforce reduction for decades to come; and minus immigration, there is no changing the trajectory. Further, the CCP, which has more recently been encouraging births, even disturbingly during the lockdowns, has seen very much the opposite. The number of births in China have plummeted, year after year for several years, last year being the lowest since '61, the end of the Famine. The birthrate, the lowest since the founding of the PRC in 1949. The Chinese population pipeline alone is very concerning...

Related, there has been an exodus of Chinese for years, often the most successful, brightest, and their money to the West. Surveys consistently indicate they do so for better healthcare, food, water, air quality, education, asset protection and of course freedom. This is contrary behavior of what one would expect for up-and-coming nation, world power. Something rotten in the State China...

Those are just some of the population, demographic issues facing the China. Factor-in massive debt, more so than what we saw in 2007 (debt to GDP), that their economy has been slowing for years, optimism is seriously challenged. The debt more recently has moved to the consumers, who have historically have been savers. This change looks to be attributable to the CCP's push to emulate the US, to have more of a consumer-led economy. Chinese debt, on multiple levels, is a big problem.

And most importantly, IMO, the jig is up, the world now is onto the CCP's IP theft and shenanigans. The extrapolation of such conduct, which was likely expected, is no longer viable.

Under CCP leadership, the rise of China can be seen in the rear view mirror, IMO. One morning we all woke-up to the demise of the USSR. While it may be years out, maybe many years, I imagine the same will happen with the CCP...