BancroftBear93 said:
CALiforniALUM said:
Cal88 said:
CALiforniALUM said:
Cal88 said:
rkt88edmo - That's a bit callous there. Besides they've been doing a good job containing this after a rough start. We're all in this together,
Here's the picture for the rural-urban divide in China:
This also answers the question about China's demography and future economic growth, they can continue to tap into their rural population for decades to come. As well, their demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy. Their main demographic challenge is the gender imbalance, with a lot more boys than girls in the younger age tranches. Allegedly they plan to remedy this problem through emigration to Africa and S. America, and by "importing"/marrying women from SEA.
Sorry, but how does your chart answer the question of what the demographic age distribution is among Chinese? There is ample evidence that by 2050 China will be one of the least "healthy" countries when it comes to age distribution of their population. Asia is expected to account for 62.3% of the population over 65 by 2050, followed by Europe at 12.6%. Prosperity will also depress birthrates in China, meaning that they are working uphill to keep their aging population supported.
I've addressed ths here" [China's] demography is much healthier than those of other industrialized countries like Korea, Japan, Germany or Italy" but without delving deeper because it's off-topic here, here is the big picture:
Contrast with
China's age distribution issues are far less problematic that those of nearly every major industrialized country. As well, they have a reserve of 400 million rural population that they've been tapping to fuel their phenomenal urban-based industrial growth and will continue to tap in decades to come, they won't have any shortage of caregivers anytime soon. That's the picture in that graph above which projects the rural population to diminish.
Furthermore countries like China can more easily pivot culturally and successfully promote organic demographic growth/family policies through economic incentives and cultural campaigns, whereas in countries like Germany or S. Korea with collapsing demographies, women have been conditioned for two generations now to devalue family creation and prioritize their careers and independence, and that mindset is much harder to change, particularly with declining standards of living.
Take today for what it is worth, but fast forward China out 25 years and they will be in one of the worst circumstances demographically. I don't quite get why you think country level demographic data doesn't include rural China? It's not really the point that they have a rural population, it's that the population across the entire country is going to be top heavy in 25 years. As I noted more than 60% of the entire globe's population over the age of 60 by 2050 will be in Asia with much of that proportionally in China. China's total population is projected to be even smaller by then. I guess if you want to measure health based on today without any consideration for the future of that population I'll give you that. But I don't find your rational regarding they will just pull from 400 million rural citizens without recognizing that most of them will be old and not productive is ridiculous in my opinion.
China is a dead man walking.
They will have a workforce reduction for decades to come; and minus immigration, there is no changing the trajectory. Further, the CCP, which has more recently been encouraging births, even disturbingly during the lockdowns, has seen very much the opposite. The number of births in China have plummeted, year after year for several years, last year being the lowest since '61, the end of the Famine. The birthrate, the lowest since the founding of the PRC in 1949. The Chinese population pipeline alone is very concerning...
Related, there has been an exodus of Chinese for years, often the most successful, brightest, and their money to the West. Surveys consistently indicate they do so for better healthcare, food, water, air quality, education, asset protection and of course freedom. This is contrary behavior of what one would expect for up-and-coming nation, world power. Something rotten in the State China...
Those are just some of the population, demographic issues facing the China. Factor-in massive debt, more so than what we saw in 2007 (debt to GDP), that their economy has been slowing for years, optimism is seriously challenged. The debt more recently has moved to the consumers, who have historically have been savers. This change looks to be attributable to the CCP's push to emulate the US, to have more of a consumer-led economy. Chinese debt, on multiple levels, is a big problem.
And most importantly, IMO, the jig is up, the world now is onto the CCP's IP theft and shenanigans. The extrapolation of such conduct, which was likely expected, is no longer viable.
Under CCP leadership, the rise of China can be seen in the rear view mirror, IMO. One morning we all woke-up to the demise of the USSR. While it may be years out, maybe many years, I imagine the same will happen with the CCP...
Sig test...