Coronavirus and upcoming season

80,829 Views | 590 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
ColoradoBear
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Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.

LunchTime
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ColoradoBear said:

Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.


Bruh,

They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park.

This guy doesnt get it. No simplified explanation will turn on that burned out bulb for him.

If deaths go above 60k, he will say "Oh, thats a little worse"
If we manage to slow or stop it, he will say "See, I told you"

At literally no point will he contradict the puppet master.
calumnus
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CalFan777 said:

Didn't Hawaii do this?


Essentially, following what we did here on Guam.

All arrivals must go into 14 day quarantine. Here that is a hotel (my boss owns) on the beach.
calumnus
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LunchTime said:

ColoradoBear said:

Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.


Bruh,

They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park.

This guy doesnt get it. No simplified explanation will turn on that burned out bulb for him.

If deaths go above 60k, he will say "Oh, thats a little worse"
If we manage to slow or stop it, he will say "See, I told you"

At literally no point will he contradict the puppet master.


The number of American deaths is just now passing the number of Americans killed on 911 and climbing. A month ago Trump said we'd have 15 cases and it "will go away soon." Now he is saying he should be considered to have done a great job if we limit it to 100,000 deaths.
Bobodeluxe
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Librul hoax.
Cal_79
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"They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park."

This sentence paints a clearer picture of what's going on than anything else I've seen or heard.
Unit2Sucks
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Cal_79 said:

"They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park."

This sentence paints a clearer picture of what's going on than anything else I've seen or heard.


They do that every few years from the flu don't they? And some say during the swine flu it was even worse. Hopefully reality will start to sink in for deniers and they will start treating this plague with the seriousness it demands. Places that right now only have a small number of cases will have thousands within a few weeks and tens of thousands after that if they don't take the social distancing guidelines seriously. Just look at places like Shreveport if you don't believe me.
rkt88edmo
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I think Hawaii is still screwed. They left travel open longer than they should have because the islands run on tourist money. My experience with friends and family also leads me to believe they won't shelter in place/social distance well. I hope I'm wrong.

I also hope the death count in CA is accurate, things in the bay look promising all things considered.

Trying to figure out if I would go work in an emergency clinic for non-COVID patients if they activate one. Very hard to balance the desire to help with the amplified risk of bringing this into my home.
kelly09
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LunchTime said:

ColoradoBear said:

Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.


Bruh,

They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park.

This guy doesnt get it. No simplified explanation will turn on that burned out bulb for him.

If deaths go above 60k, he will say "Oh, thats a little worse"
If we manage to slow or stop it, he will say "See, I told you"

At literally no point will he contradict the puppet master.
Speaking of puppet masters. How about the Nevada gov/
PDATE: GatewayPundit is reporting this morning that the Nevada Chief Medical Officer who recommended the ban to Sisolak doesn't even have a license to practice medicine. Unreal:

Quote:

Governor Sisolak's Chief Medical Officer of Nevada is named Ihsan Azzam and he is the one who advised Gov. Sisolak to make it illegal to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to COVID-19 victims.
Ihsan Azzam oversees public health surveillance, epidemiology and disease control activities in the state of Nevada.

This guy has no medical background.
Strykur
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rkt88edmo said:

I think Hawaii is still screwed. They left travel open longer than they should have because the islands run on tourist money. My experience with friends and family also leads me to believe they won't shelter in place/social distance well. I hope I'm wrong.

I also hope the death count in CA is accurate, things in the bay look promising all things considered.

Trying to figure out if I would go work in an emergency clinic for non-COVID patients if they activate one. Very hard to balance the desire to help with the amplified risk of bringing this into my home.
I have a friend currently in Honolulu and it's a double-edged sword, the locals are paranoid about tourists who are contagious but also lots of people are out of work and toilet paper is still scarce on the island.
SpartanBear20
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Cal head coach Justin Wilcox collaborated with the Bay Area's two other CFB coaches, David Shaw of Stanford and Brent Brennan of San Jose State, for this PSA "Stay Home, Save Lives":

This ad was inspired by Brennan's wife.
LunchTime
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SpartanBear20 said:

Cal head coach Justin Wilcox collaborated with the Bay Area's two other CFB coaches, David Shaw of Stanford and Brent Brennan of San Jose State, for this PSA "Stay Home, Save Lives":

This ad was inspired by Brennan's wife.
Shaw looks like he is in a Public Storage container while Wilcox is hiding in a bunker.
Sebastabear
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LunchTime said:

SpartanBear20 said:

Cal head coach Justin Wilcox collaborated with the Bay Area's two other CFB coaches, David Shaw of Stanford and Brent Brennan of San Jose State, for this PSA "Stay Home, Save Lives":

This ad was inspired by Brennan's wife.
Shaw looks like he is in a Public Storage container while Wilcox is hiding in a bunker.
Believe it or not, that's actually what the walls inside the Simpson Center (where the Cal coaches have their offices) look like. Our interior designer went very "minimalist,"
Chapman_is_Gone
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Ugggh.. Shaw is so gross.
LunchTime
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Sebastabear said:

LunchTime said:

SpartanBear20 said:

Cal head coach Justin Wilcox collaborated with the Bay Area's two other CFB coaches, David Shaw of Stanford and Brent Brennan of San Jose State, for this PSA "Stay Home, Save Lives":

This ad was inspired by Brennan's wife.
Shaw looks like he is in a Public Storage container while Wilcox is hiding in a bunker.
Believe it or not, that's actually what the walls inside the Simpson Center (where the Cal coaches have their offices) look like. Our interior designer went very "minimalist,"
yeah, he does all these videos from there. It still looks amusing, and we can all use some amusement.

As an aside looking towards better times, where do I buy that sweatshirt?
MSaviolives
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kelly09 said:

LunchTime said:

ColoradoBear said:

Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.


Bruh,

They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park.

This guy doesnt get it. No simplified explanation will turn on that burned out bulb for him.

If deaths go above 60k, he will say "Oh, thats a little worse"
If we manage to slow or stop it, he will say "See, I told you"

At literally no point will he contradict the puppet master.
Speaking of puppet masters. How about the Nevada gov/
PDATE: GatewayPundit is reporting this morning that the Nevada Chief Medical Officer who recommended the ban to Sisolak doesn't even have a license to practice medicine. Unreal:

Quote:

Governor Sisolak's Chief Medical Officer of Nevada is named Ihsan Azzam and he is the one who advised Gov. Sisolak to make it illegal to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to COVID-19 victims.
Ihsan Azzam oversees public health surveillance, epidemiology and disease control activities in the state of Nevada.

This guy has no medical background.
Really? No medical background?

Quote:

Chief Medical Officer

Ihsan Azzam, Ph.D, M.D.
Chief Medical Officer
[url=http://dpbh.nv.gov/About/Executive_Team/][/url]
Dr. Ihsan Azzam oversees public health surveillance, epidemiology and disease control activities. He advises state and local health authorities, healthcare providers and community-based organizations, and provides professional education, guidelines, clinical updates and recommendations to prevent, control and contain disease outbreaks. Dr. Azzam represents Nevada on state and national forums, advisory bodies, and academic institutions, and he coordinates investigations and surveillance activities among state, local and federal agencies.

Dr. Azzam earned his medical degree from Cluj University of Medicine in Romania in 1982 and completed his OBGYN residency in 1986. He also holds a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Graduate Certificate in Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Demography from the University of Seattle School of Public Health and Community Medicine, and a CDC Chronic Disease Epidemiology Certificate from the Penn State College of Medicine. At the University of Nevada, Reno, Dr. Azzam completed his MPH in 2002 and PhD in 2010. He has been the recipient of several awards, including the 2011 National Sheppard Award for Excellence in Epidemiology.
http://dpbh.nv.gov/About/Executive_Team/

Do you actually look to Gateway Pundit as a reliable source?
LunchTime
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MSaviolives said:

kelly09 said:

LunchTime said:

ColoradoBear said:

Cal_79 said:

You're right about there being a difference between simple explanations and simply making stuff up.

Saying the stork brings babies is a simple explanation. It is a made-up story designed to appease the curiosity of small children, not to explain what is really going on.

Is it a ridiculous idea to use simple explanations about COVID-19 that do explain what is going on?


The simple explanation is that Rudy is kind of a dumb f for comparing deaths during a typical flu season to a new disease that was predicted to kill 2.2 million in the USA if unchecked.


Bruh,

They are storing bodies in ice rinks, and building tent hospitals in Central Park.

This guy doesnt get it. No simplified explanation will turn on that burned out bulb for him.

If deaths go above 60k, he will say "Oh, thats a little worse"
If we manage to slow or stop it, he will say "See, I told you"

At literally no point will he contradict the puppet master.
Speaking of puppet masters. How about the Nevada gov/
PDATE: GatewayPundit is reporting this morning that the Nevada Chief Medical Officer who recommended the ban to Sisolak doesn't even have a license to practice medicine. Unreal:

Quote:

Governor Sisolak's Chief Medical Officer of Nevada is named Ihsan Azzam and he is the one who advised Gov. Sisolak to make it illegal to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to COVID-19 victims.
Ihsan Azzam oversees public health surveillance, epidemiology and disease control activities in the state of Nevada.

This guy has no medical background.
Really? No medical background?

Quote:

Chief Medical Officer

Ihsan Azzam, Ph.D, M.D.
Chief Medical Officer
[url=http://dpbh.nv.gov/About/Executive_Team/][/url]
Dr. Ihsan Azzam oversees public health surveillance, epidemiology and disease control activities. He advises state and local health authorities, healthcare providers and community-based organizations, and provides professional education, guidelines, clinical updates and recommendations to prevent, control and contain disease outbreaks. Dr. Azzam represents Nevada on state and national forums, advisory bodies, and academic institutions, and he coordinates investigations and surveillance activities among state, local and federal agencies.

Dr. Azzam earned his medical degree from Cluj University of Medicine in Romania in 1982 and completed his OBGYN residency in 1986. He also holds a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Graduate Certificate in Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Demography from the University of Seattle School of Public Health and Community Medicine, and a CDC Chronic Disease Epidemiology Certificate from the Penn State College of Medicine. At the University of Nevada, Reno, Dr. Azzam completed his MPH in 2002 and PhD in 2010. He has been the recipient of several awards, including the 2011 National Sheppard Award for Excellence in Epidemiology.
http://dpbh.nv.gov/About/Executive_Team/

Do you actually look to Gateway Pundit as a reliable source?

This is absolutely no time to be sending people in for burns.
concernedparent
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Unit2Sucks said:

LunchTime said:

Cal_79 said:

Where does Rudy imply it's no big deal? Seems to me he's just calling for perspective.

The CDC estimates that in the U.S. influenza has resulted in between 9 million to 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Why don't people freak out over 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the USA every year from the flu?
Because it peaks at 61k because it has a mortality rate of .09 and a low growth rate.


This wont.


Also the flu vaccine, while imperfect, is readily available and ensures our healthcare systems are not overrun by flu cases every year. The flu is relatively predictable. The problem with H1N1, which was less deadly than seasonal flu, was that it was in addition to the seasonal flu, so it roughly doubled the normal number of annual flu hospitalizations.

COVID-19 may have similar symptoms but is overwhelming our system unlike the seasonal flu. Instead of 50k dying in a year, that many can die in a month, or if we do an even worse job, in a week. The rate of hospitalization is much higher than the flu and has downstream effects on everyone who needs care.

I don't understand all these "what's the big deal takes" that seem to ignore all the relevant facts on what is going on. Unless they are from Fox News viewers of course. Then it makes perfect sense.
Hey guys, why is it that McDonald's can serve 1 billion hamburgers globally every year, but when I go to my local drive-thru and order 10,000 hamburgers on any given day it overwhelms the system?
MSaviolives
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concernedparent said:

Unit2Sucks said:

LunchTime said:

Cal_79 said:

Where does Rudy imply it's no big deal? Seems to me he's just calling for perspective.

The CDC estimates that in the U.S. influenza has resulted in between 9 million to 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Why don't people freak out over 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the USA every year from the flu?
Because it peaks at 61k because it has a mortality rate of .09 and a low growth rate.


This wont.


Also the flu vaccine, while imperfect, is readily available and ensures our healthcare systems are not overrun by flu cases every year. The flu is relatively predictable. The problem with H1N1, which was less deadly than seasonal flu, was that it was in addition to the seasonal flu, so it roughly doubled the normal number of annual flu hospitalizations.

COVID-19 may have similar symptoms but is overwhelming our system unlike the seasonal flu. Instead of 50k dying in a year, that many can die in a month, or if we do an even worse job, in a week. The rate of hospitalization is much higher than the flu and has downstream effects on everyone who needs care.

I don't understand all these "what's the big deal takes" that seem to ignore all the relevant facts on what is going on. Unless they are from Fox News viewers of course. Then it makes perfect sense.
Hey guys, why is it that McDonald's can serve 1 billion hamburgers globally every year, but when I go to my local drive-thru and order 10,000 hamburgers on any given day it overwhelms the system?
Remember all those past flu seasons when treating doctors and nurses then came down with the virus and died and/or were put on ventilators?

Yeah, me neither.
concernedparent
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MSaviolives said:

concernedparent said:

Unit2Sucks said:

LunchTime said:

Cal_79 said:

Where does Rudy imply it's no big deal? Seems to me he's just calling for perspective.

The CDC estimates that in the U.S. influenza has resulted in between 9 million to 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 to 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Why don't people freak out over 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the USA every year from the flu?
Because it peaks at 61k because it has a mortality rate of .09 and a low growth rate.


This wont.


Also the flu vaccine, while imperfect, is readily available and ensures our healthcare systems are not overrun by flu cases every year. The flu is relatively predictable. The problem with H1N1, which was less deadly than seasonal flu, was that it was in addition to the seasonal flu, so it roughly doubled the normal number of annual flu hospitalizations.

COVID-19 may have similar symptoms but is overwhelming our system unlike the seasonal flu. Instead of 50k dying in a year, that many can die in a month, or if we do an even worse job, in a week. The rate of hospitalization is much higher than the flu and has downstream effects on everyone who needs care.

I don't understand all these "what's the big deal takes" that seem to ignore all the relevant facts on what is going on. Unless they are from Fox News viewers of course. Then it makes perfect sense.
Hey guys, why is it that McDonald's can serve 1 billion hamburgers globally every year, but when I go to my local drive-thru and order 10,000 hamburgers on any given day it overwhelms the system?
Remember all those past flu seasons when treating doctors and nurses then came down with the virus and died and/or were put on ventilators?

Yeah, me neither.
I don't, but do you remember when the seasonal flu hit other developed countries so hard the military was called in to move dead bodies?
Cal88
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In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
LunchTime
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I created a viz for you guys.

Link to the bucket because the actual url gets molested into emoji.


I am hoping that you find value: In mature testing environments, it looks like there may be a 10 day lag from a drop in doubling to the drop in fatalities. I still think deaths is the best measure, but I include both.

Currently only the top 15 or so countries are included so it doesnt overwhelm the user.

Have a good time.

Highlights (TL; DR): It looks like Italy is leveling out. It should start declining any day now. If could also climb back to exponential growth. There is a clear leveling of new cases and a not clear leveling of deaths. Look for the sharp drop for recovery.

Several places, like Ca and Washington, are steadily doubling, but at a low enough rate that the Hospitals should not be overwhelmed nearly as tragically as in NY. This viz has a difficult time showing that. Doubling is irrelevant if it is slower than the recovery time (ie 30 days). We can keep up with that ~2.5%

New York also may be showing a resetting of new cases or a leveling off in the last few days. It would be great to see a leveling of cases.

The south is increasing significantly, but the northeast and midwest are very troubling right now. Specifically Penn and Michigan. Texas is looking worse than a few days ago.

As you can see in this tab example: Ark had the lowest increase in cases yesterday, while Indi had the highest. Blue good Red bad
Cal88
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I would guess that Penn, MI and IL are mostly big city growths, centered in Philly, Detroit and Chicago. Those cities are more urban in nature, denser than sprawly places like Phoenix or Orlando.
LunchTime
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Cal88 said:

I would guess that Penn, MI and IL are mostly big city growths, centered in Philly, Detroit and Chicago. Those cities are more urban in nature, denser than sprawly places like Phoenix or Orlando.
Detroit also shut off water to 100k people over the last several years for non payment.

Good luck washing your hands with no water.
TandemBear
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Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
I guess it comes down to priorities. We COULD have spent more tax money on ERs and ICUs that would never hit capacity, OR give additional tax cuts. I guess we chose the latter.

Stop running hospitals like businesses. We don't run schools, fire or police departments, libraries or parks like businesses, so let's do the same with hospitals. We can decide as a country that hospitals have more worth than just "lean and mean" organizations vying to maximize profits/revenues for those benefiting.
LunchTime
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TandemBear said:

Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
I guess it comes down to priorities. We COULD have spent more tax money on ERs and ICUs that would never hit capacity, OR give additional tax cuts. I guess we chose the latter.

Stop running hospitals like businesses. We don't run schools, fire or police departments, libraries or parks like businesses, so let's do the same with hospitals. We can decide as a country that hospitals have more worth than just "lean and mean" organizations vying to maximize profits/revenues for those benefiting.


What system in the world maintains r0-3 pandemic capacity?

What an insane demand.

Healthcare needs to get more resource efficient. Not less.

Ensuring that 10% of the population can be hospitalized at any point because of a literal once a century pandemic is the most mindless kneejerk claim I have seen come out of this.
LunchTime
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For those who havent had a chance to look (or dont care about the data), Potentially good news out of Italy:

New cases have look like they may have broken the exponential growth phase.


When that white line starts to drop down (like a vertical line) that is when you can be sure Italy has beaten it (or stopped testing). You will see a delayed line on the deaths chart as well.

Also, there is an story today about some region of Italy clearing out its critical care, drawing down from capacity. Not where the worst is, but that is great news. I wish I could find the article.
Cal88
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TandemBear said:

Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
I guess it comes down to priorities. We COULD have spent more tax money on ERs and ICUs that would never hit capacity, OR give additional tax cuts. I guess we chose the latter.

Stop running hospitals like businesses. We don't run schools, fire or police departments, libraries or parks like businesses, so let's do the same with hospitals. We can decide as a country that hospitals have more worth than just "lean and mean" organizations vying to maximize profits/revenues for those benefiting.

There was a discussion about nuclear energy on this board a few years ago, where Calumnus used the French model, the world's best by most measures (nearly 3/4 of electricity generated without any major incidents for the last half century), and provided it as a model to emulate for the US.

I've answered that nuclear energy is great for France, but is a dangerous proposition in the cultural and regulatory US environment. You cannot run an industry like this as a business, and that's what it will eventually tend to become with the lack of oversight and revolving door regulatory culture (see brownouts in CA, from Enron in the 90s to PG&E today).

Note that the cultural and regulatory norms have significantly degraded in France as well the past decade or two. You have the same kind of degradation in the British healthcare system, they have been ahead of the neoliberalization curve in Europe every since the Thatcher and Blair tenures. Note also that this rampant neoliberalization is being done across bipartisan lines. You have for instance Cuomo, who is being praised today, responsible for slashing the NY state health budget and for leaving his state woefully unprepared for this crisis:

Quote:

"Andrew Cuomo has repeatedly stated, over and over again, that New York has excess capacity of hospital beds, that it's too expensive and not needed and we need to reduce spending. He said this over and over again throughout his entire tenure," said Sean Petty, a pediatric nurse at a public hospital in the Bronx and a high-ranking member of the state's politically active nurses' union. "If this budget goes through in April, next year's health and hospitals budget is going to be devastating."

What's striking to Petty and other health care experts is how Cuomo has not backed off his plan to cut Medicaid, despite the horrific Covid-19 outbreak. Earlier this year, Cuomo empaneled what is called a Medicaid Redesign Team to slash Medicaid spending in New York after a $6 billion budget shortfall, driven largely by rising Medicaid costs, became evident in late 2019.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/covid-ny-hospital-medicaid/

In the US the discrepancy between what we spend on the military (the so-called "defense budget") and what needs to be spent to safeguard the health and safety of our population has become staggering, that gap is now being exposed.
Bobodeluxe
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tRumpCare covers everyone, much cheaper than KenyaCare.

MAGA
LunchTime
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Cal88 said:

TandemBear said:

Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
I guess it comes down to priorities. We COULD have spent more tax money on ERs and ICUs that would never hit capacity, OR give additional tax cuts. I guess we chose the latter.

Stop running hospitals like businesses. We don't run schools, fire or police departments, libraries or parks like businesses, so let's do the same with hospitals. We can decide as a country that hospitals have more worth than just "lean and mean" organizations vying to maximize profits/revenues for those benefiting.

There was a discussion about nuclear energy on this board a few years ago, where Calumnus used the French model, the world's best by most measures (nearly 3/4 of electricity generated without any major incidents for the last half century), and provided it as a model to emulate for the US.

I've answered that nuclear energy is great for France, but is a dangerous proposition in the cultural and regulatory US environment. You cannot run an industry like this as a business, and that's what it will eventually tend to become with the lack of oversight and revolving door regulatory culture (see brownouts in CA, from Enron in the 90s to PG&E today).

Note that the cultural and regulatory norms have significantly degraded in France as well the past decade or two. You have the same kind of degradation in the British healthcare system, they have been ahead of the neoliberalization curve in Europe every since the Thatcher and Blair tenures. Note also that this rampant neoliberalization is being done across bipartisan lines. You have for instance Cuomo, who is being praised today, responsible for slashing the NY state health budget and for leaving his state woefully unprepared for this crisis:

Quote:

"Andrew Cuomo has repeatedly stated, over and over again, that New York has excess capacity of hospital beds, that it's too expensive and not needed and we need to reduce spending. He said this over and over again throughout his entire tenure," said Sean Petty, a pediatric nurse at a public hospital in the Bronx and a high-ranking member of the state's politically active nurses' union. "If this budget goes through in April, next year's health and hospitals budget is going to be devastating."

What's striking to Petty and other health care experts is how Cuomo has not backed off his plan to cut Medicaid, despite the horrific Covid-19 outbreak. Earlier this year, Cuomo empaneled what is called a Medicaid Redesign Team to slash Medicaid spending in New York after a $6 billion budget shortfall, driven largely by rising Medicaid costs, became evident in late 2019.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/covid-ny-hospital-medicaid/

In the US the discrepancy between what we spend on the military (the so-called "defense budget") and what needs to be spent to safeguard the health and safety of our population has become staggering, that gap is now being exposed.

Let me start by saying: I hope to not shut down any opinion or idea (except that we should carry 20% occupancy in healthcare). I just want to show context and where I think the "real" threat is hiding.




In 2020 the Federal Healthcare budget is just over 1,100 billion dollars. That is just federal spending. Not included in another $500 billion in non direct costs in the form of exchange subsidies, and tax incentives (not counted because I am not counting those against the defense budget).
In 2020 the Federal Defense budget is just over $730 billion dollars.

Additionally we would have spent another $2 Trillion on healthcare privately, in a normal non-COVID year.

In other words, ALL military spending would only increase healthcare spending 25%. It should be noted that our Federal Spending alone outstrips all developed nation spending per capita.





I think the biggest problem is that our enormous healthcare budget, in a time of crisis, cant even produce testing or masks. What should be exposed is that in a time of need, we have almost zero capacity to produce anything remotely useful.

To the military comparison: We produce tanks here. We force foreign companies like Beretta, H&K, Sig, etc to make our small arms in factories we own in the US. We make bullets and bombs and helicopters and aircraft here. We make ships here. We know that when crisis comes, broken supply chain will be what separates us from success.

We make masks in China. We make Tylenol in China. Everything we make here requires parts from China.





Listen, And this is no joke: Reform tort law around medicine. It has absolutely crippled our system. It is making it so people think they need insurance to get care. Where was this drive for insurance previously? It didnt exist because people didnt go broke from their kid breaking her arm.

And how does this effect the COVID crisis directly? We dont make PPE because manufacturers left us. In 2006 N95 mask producers begged the federal government to reform the law that let people sue them when they used the masks incorrectly. We didnt. They left the country and stopped selling masks here.

News today? First N95 shipment since February (130k masks made by 3M overseas) arrived yesterday. A MONTH with no deliveries during a pandemic? Thats what the failure of addressing the ACTUAL problem in healthcare has produced.





1. Fix our ******* supply chain. Health is critical infrastructure. It should be designed around supply chains we control.
2. Reform laws that drive costs up and supply down.

Those two, alone, while not sexy, will fix both our crisis response and our ongoing need to insure everyone against ever rising insane costs. You guys may remember a time when breaking your arm didnt cost you the arm and a leg. Now its the end of you if you dont have insurance. Tort. Reform.
TandemBear
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LunchTime said:

TandemBear said:

Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.
I guess it comes down to priorities. We COULD have spent more tax money on ERs and ICUs that would never hit capacity, OR give additional tax cuts. I guess we chose the latter.

Stop running hospitals like businesses. We don't run schools, fire or police departments, libraries or parks like businesses, so let's do the same with hospitals. We can decide as a country that hospitals have more worth than just "lean and mean" organizations vying to maximize profits/revenues for those benefiting.


What system in the world maintains r0-3 pandemic capacity?

What an insane demand.

Healthcare needs to get more resource efficient. Not less.

Ensuring that 10% of the population can be hospitalized at any point because of a literal once a century pandemic is the most mindless kneejerk claim I have seen come out of this.
Do you realize we STILL have a nursing shortage? For what, ten years now? Why? Because hospitals are under-staffed and the nurses are overworked. Many enter the field, realize how brutal it is, and then leave. Just one example of "lean and mean" that is a sham. And in general, if a shortage exists, we aren't paying "market rate" salaries to fill the need. Why not? I'm sure there are many reasons, but funding is definitely one of them. Let's have a few extra nurses on staff so when one is out sick, it isn't an immediate shortage situation.

God forbid we spend a little too much on nurses! (Or teachers...) It's like how the right constantly worries about "overpaying workers and making them lazy," whereas it never worries about overpaying CEOs. Top wages have skyrocketed, yet that's somehow a "natural" phenomenon.

"Resource efficient" in what terms? Because paying a hospital CEO $10 million a year sure isn't that!

Healthcare needs to become less money-driven and more care driven. Fee-for-service only encourages more and more revenue at the cost of quality care. This model can be dumped and we make health care FAR more effective.

Studies have shown time and time again how the American system fails to meet care standards the rest of the world enjoys at far lower cost.
Cal88
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A couple of quick points on LunchTime's detailed response above:

-The actual US military budget is significantly bigger than the posted figure above of $720 billion, it is well above a $trillion that differential is parked in special budgetary items financing wars and occupations mostly in the Middle East, and in the black budget and the budget of intelligence agencies. I've gone over it before on this board.

-You're absolutely right about the broken nature of the US healthcare system, we spend far more on healthcare per capita than any other industrialized nation, and we get a lot less especially in terms of coverage, here is a great visual summary on this page illustrating that gap:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-do-oecd-countries-spend-on-healthcare/

-There is an inverse relationship in terms of budget spending on healthcare vs military, as shown in this study (Fan, H.; Liu, W.; & Coyte, P. C. (2018). Do military expenditures crowd-out health expenditures? Evidence from around the world, 20002013.Defence and Peace Economics, 29(7), 766-779.):

https://peacesciencedigest.org/when-countries-increase-their-military-budgets-they-decrease-public-health-spending/

Here's a quick look at the issue of comparative healthcare and military spending across the world:



We spend proportionally about 2.5 times as much on the military than on healthcare compared to the ratio in Europe or Australia, roughly 2 to 1 in the US, vs 5 to 1 in Europe. Keep in mind that the figure above lumps Canada and Mexico with the US, so the US ratio is even higher than the 8.1/3.6 shown above.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/04/22/global-health-and-military-expenditure-in-comparison-infographic/#3020cc063020
Cal88
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Cal88 said:

In all fairness, it is normal for ICU and ER units to be working at full capacity at the peak of a flu season, and a bit beyond that in a bad flu season. If that weren't the case, ER capacity would have been reduced.

You have to measure this covid-19 peak against normal seasonal peaks to get a grasp of its relative scale. I will try to get some of that data.

This is what I got for Italy, the covid19 spike is roughly 300% of normal in the most heavily impacted region of Bergamo:





This is actually a bit less dramatic than I've imagined, given that the crush in Italy has mostly been a regional one, with large urban centers like Rome and Napoli not as heavily impacted.

okaydo
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LunchTime
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Cal88 said:

A couple of quick points on LunchTime's detailed response above:

-The actual US military budget is significantly bigger than the posted figure above of $720 billion, it is well above a $trillion that differential is parked in special budgetary items financing wars and occupations mostly in the Middle East, and in the black budget and the budget of intelligence agencies. I've gone over it before on this board.

-You're absolutely right about the broken nature of the US healthcare system, we spend far more on healthcare per capita than any other industrialized nation, and we get a lot less especially in terms of coverage, here is a great visual summary on this page illustrating that gap:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-do-oecd-countries-spend-on-healthcare/

-There is an inverse relationship in terms of budget spending on healthcare vs military, as shown in this study (Fan, H.; Liu, W.; & Coyte, P. C. (2018). Do military expenditures crowd-out health expenditures? Evidence from around the world, 20002013.Defence and Peace Economics, 29(7), 766-779.):

https://peacesciencedigest.org/when-countries-increase-their-military-budgets-they-decrease-public-health-spending/

Here's a quick look at the issue of comparative healthcare and military spending across the world:



We spend proportionally about 2.5 times as much on the military than on healthcare compared to the ratio in Europe or Australia, roughly 2 to 1 in the US, vs 5 to 1 in Europe. Keep in mind that the figure above lumps Canada and Mexico with the US, so the US ratio is even higher than the 8.1/3.6 shown above.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2016/04/22/global-health-and-military-expenditure-in-comparison-infographic/#3020cc063020

It seems like your argument is that we should spend less on the military. Nothing you are showing indicates a shortfall in healthcare spending.

Maybe I am missing your argument?
 
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