World's richest including Musk and Bezos lost $1.4 TRILLION in 2022



https://mol.im/a/10915201

Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

Energy prices doing what Biden said and wanted: https://nypost.com/2022/06/13/gas-prices-too-high-its-all-part-of-bidens-plan-to-eliminate-fossil-fuels/

DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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I'm sorry you don't understand things that have been explained to you repeatedly

DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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Uh, the wealthy have strategies, advisors, and their own financial education, etc., and adapt to lessen the blow. It is the middle class and below that have fewer resources to deal with same. I dare say it is the less rich who have been hurt the most in this inflationary drop.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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I'm sorry you don't understand things that have been explained to you repeatedly

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Your post about the Saudis and the oil market the other day was terribly uneducated.
Your knowledge base when it comes to "markets" and basic economics just isnt as deep and intelligent as you think it is.

NVBear78 said:

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Energy prices doing what Biden said and wanted: https://nypost.com/2022/06/13/gas-prices-too-high-its-all-part-of-bidens-plan-to-eliminate-fossil-fuels/

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Both "sides" are terribly uneducated.

For example, Chevron experienced the greatest production growth in the HISTORY of it's company last year and backed that up with 10% YoY growth in Q1 of this year. Capital projects to increase production have a minimum 2 year lead time. It's terribly naive for Biden (or anyone else for that matter) to think that Big Oil can simply flip a "switch" and produce more domestic crude oil... especially after what happened to their industry during Covid.

OdontoBear66 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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Uh, the wealthy have strategies, advisors, and their own financial education, etc., and adapt to lessen the blow. It is the middle class and below that have fewer resources to deal with same. I dare say it is the less rich who have been hurt the most in this inflationary drop.

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Personally, I dont take much confidence in financial "advisors".
But that's a different subject all together.

What the liberals here dont seem to understand is that 58% of Americans report that they own stock.
So my point is that it isnt just the super wealthy that can see their net worth take a hit.

Never mind the pension funds that "expect" a high single digit return (7.5%)
Never mind that consumer sentiment plunged to a record low last month
as measured by data going back to November 1952.
Gee, I wonder why?

This decline in the markets will have a generational impact.

But liberals like Bearister are unable to comprehend that.
They're too busy posting memes.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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I'm sorry you don't understand things that have been explained to you repeatedly

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Your post about the Saudis and the oil market the other day was terribly uneducated.
Your knowledge base when it comes to "markets" and basic economics just isnt as deep and intelligent as you think it is.

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You repeatedly show an inability to connect dots, even when things are clearly explained to you. Hence why you repeat mantras based on nothing.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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I'm sorry you don't understand things that have been explained to you repeatedly

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Your post about the Saudis and the oil market the other day was terribly uneducated.
Your knowledge base when it comes to "markets" and basic economics just isnt as deep and intelligent as you think it is.

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You repeatedly show an inability to connect dots, even when things are clearly explained to you. Hence why you repeat mantras based on nothing.

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You're the guy that repeatedly wants income tax rates increased on wealthy Americans because you believe that our Federal Govt knows how to spend everyone's money . . . . the best.

You're the guy that thinks that increasing income tax rates on wealthy Californian's will cool off the demand for real estate. Never mind that there is a supply issue.

Talk about a repeated mantra that is based on NOTHING.

You're funny!

DiabloWags said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Liberals must be loving this stock market collapse being engineered by the Federal Reserve.
It helps bring down the wealth inequality gap.

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Uh, the wealthy have strategies, advisors, and their own financial education, etc., and adapt to lessen the blow. It is the middle class and below that have fewer resources to deal with same. I dare say it is the less rich who have been hurt the most in this inflationary drop.

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Personally, I dont take much confidence in financial "advisors".
But that's a different subject all together.

What the liberals here dont seem to understand is that 58% of Americans report that they own stock.
So my point is that it isnt just the super wealthy that can see their net worth take a hit.

Never mind the pension funds that "expect" a high single digit return (7.5%)
Never mind that consumer sentiment plunged to a record low last month
as measured by data going back to November 1952.
Gee, I wonder why?

This decline in the markets will have a generational impact.

But liberals like Bearister are unable to comprehend that.
They're too busy posting memes.

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S&P 500 is almost exactly where it was at the end of 2020, which is 1000 points more than where it was trading for most of 2019.

dimitrig said:

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S&P 500 is almost exactly where it was at the end of 2020, which is 1000 points more than where it was trading for most of 2019.

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I'm afraid that's a terribly simplistic view of the market.
Investors poured in nearly $900 BILLION into exchange traded and long-only funds in 2021.
That's more than two decades combined.

FED raises rates 75 basis points.
Largest single increase since '94

Jerome Powell press conference at 2:30 PM

Interestingly enough, the FED (which has been horrible with their forecasting) only believes that unemployment will go up from 3.6% to 3.9% this year even though they want to move the Fed Funds Rate 150 basis points above the "neutral" rate. That sounds like pure fantasy to me.

The FED was at 1.9% inflation rate vs 3.4% by market participants.
The FED has now closed the gap to where the market is and is currently at 3.8% vs 4.0% for next year.

That's finally a positive and pretty much confirms where Bullard (the lone Fed Hawk) was the entire time.

Note: GDP-Now out of the Atlanta Fed is currently at 0.0% for Q2 GDP.
The FED is forecasting an unemployment rate for 2024 of only 4.1%

Jerome Powell says that he would like to think that they (FED) are still credible.

Had to laugh after Powell's .75 announcement. All the big boys had to form a kumbaya circle to decide if it was bad good or indifferent. The market spiked up, went down shortly thereafter, went even to up all in 15 minutes. Now they have had their council and decided it is good for the market---Dow up 300....All of this within 40 minutes. Crazy manipulation and confusion by the hotshots while everyone pretty much knew in advance it was going up 75 basis points with a maybe on 50. Haha.

OdontoBear66 said:

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Had to laugh after Powell's .75 announcement. All the big boys had to form a kumbaya circle to decide if it was bad good or indifferent. The market spiked up, went down shortly thereafter, went even to up all in 15 minutes. Now they have had their council and decided it is good for the market---Dow up 300....All of this within 40 minutes. Crazy manipulation and confusion by the hotshots while everyone pretty much knew in advance it was going up 75 basis points with a maybe on 50. Haha.

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It's not manipulation.
People simply pulled their bids after the initial news of a rate hike.
This has been a pretty common pattern during just about every 2:00 PM FED Announcement.
The volatility is nothing new when these announcements are made.

And the market is rallying back because of Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM in which he is "clarifying" monetary policy.

It's not just about raising Fed Fund's 75 basis points.
Market participants are learning what the FED is watching (consumption) and will be "keying" on from here on out, (core inflation), as well as other underlying components of inflation (service sector) and identifying what the FED would deem as progress, etc.

DiabloWags said:

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OdontoBear66 said:

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Had to laugh after Powell's .75 announcement. All the big boys had to form a kumbaya circle to decide if it was bad good or indifferent. The market spiked up, went down shortly thereafter, went even to up all in 15 minutes. Now they have had their council and decided it is good for the market---Dow up 300....All of this within 40 minutes. Crazy manipulation and confusion by the hotshots while everyone pretty much knew in advance it was going up 75 basis points with a maybe on 50. Haha.

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It's not manipulation.
People simply pulled their bids after the initial news of a rate hike.
This has been a pretty common pattern during just about every 2:00 PM FED Announcement.
The volatility is nothing new when these announcements are made.

And the market is rallying back because of Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM in which he is "clarifying" monetary policy.

It's not just about raising Fed Fund's 75 basis points.
Market participants are learning what the FED is watching (consumption) and will be "keying" on from here on out, (core inflation), as well as other underlying components of inflation (service sector) and identifying what the FED would deem as progress, etc.

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I didn't see the announcement (working) but if the Fed is watching consumption and keying on core inflation then today was a major policy error. May retail sales were negative (in nominal terms) and May core inflation continued its downward trend from March.

dajo9 said:

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I didn't see the announcement (working) but if the Fed is watching consumption and keying on core inflation then today was a major policy error. May retail sales were negative (in nominal terms) and May core inflation continued its downward trend from March.

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One down month in core inflation does not make a trend.

They were terribly behind the curve compared to market participants.
They were late on increasing rates. They were late on enacting QT.

Now, that gap has finally narrowed..... 3.8% vs 4.0% for next year.
The Fed has finally caught up with the market.

Note: We've seen the consumer go from buying goods to buying services (again) as the normal course of their day. There's been a massive shift from the retail side of employment to the leisure and travel side. Airlines have seen massive demand and employment in the "leisure and travel" sector has exploded (albeit from a smaller base). - - - What would be interesting is to figure out how many people's travel plans (airline and hotel reservations for summer travel) were booked long ago before the equity market got hit and inflation ramped food and fuel prices. There could be some cancellations in the making.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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I didn't see the announcement (working) but if the Fed is watching consumption and keying on core inflation then today was a major policy error. May retail sales were negative (in nominal terms) and May core inflation continued its downward trend from March.

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One down month in core inflation does not make a trend.

They were terribly behind the curve compared to market participants.
They were late on increasing rates. They were late on enacting QT.

Now, that gap has finally narrowed..... 3.8% vs 4.0% for next year.
The Fed has finally caught up with the market.

Note: We've seen the consumer go from buying goods to buying services (again) as the normal course of their day. There's been a massive shift from the retail side of employment to the leisure and travel side. Airlines have seen massive demand and employment in the "leisure and travel" sector has exploded (albeit from a smaller base). - - - What would be interesting is to figure out how many people's travel plans (airline and hotel reservations for summer travel) were booked long ago before the equity market got hit and inflation ramped food and fuel prices. There could be some cancellations in the making.

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Two months down in core inflation. But still in watching the data mode before any conclusions are drawn.

dajo9 said:

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Two months down in core inflation. But still in watching the data mode before any conclusions are drawn.

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The Fed is clearly in wait and see mode and data dependent as they move Fed Funds up to a "neutral" rate, which Powell states is too low. Powell continues to have this "air" about him of HOPING that inflation comes down. Clearly, he and the Fed were surprised by last Friday's CPI number, hence the 75 basis point hike today after saying that 75 was off the table recently.

Remember, nominal income growth was 12% last year and it will most likely be double-digits again this year.
The economy is still relatively strong.

Bond fund managers like Jeffrey Gundlach will tell you that their "models" are forecasting that CPI will remain above 8% for several more months. It's most likely not coming down anytime soon. Probably gonna be a 6% YoY.

The FED knows that they've had a credibility problem.
Their forecasts have been worthless. And they dont want to mess up 40 years of inflation fighting.
They were at 1.9% when the market was at 3.4%
That gap has finally narrowed.
3.8% vs 4.0% for next year.

The market wants to see that they are on top of this (for a change).

Shelter is a third of the CPI and they are saying that its up 5.4%

But does anyone really believe that?
Of course not.

Residential home prices are +22%.

What's the problem here?
It's because they've changed the methodology in which the CPI is calculated.

If you were to apply the current methodology with the inputs from 1980, you'd be at 9% vs 13.9%

As a result, the current methodology for calculating CPI has been under-reporting inflation.

DiabloWags said:

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Shelter is a third of the CPI and they are saying that its up 5.4%

But does anyone really believe that?
Of course not.

Residential home prices are +22%.

What's the problem here?
It's because they've changed the methodology in which the CPI is calculated.

If you were to apply the current methodology with the inputs from 1980, you'd be at 9% vs 13.9%

As a result, the current methodology for calculating CPI has been under-reporting inflation.

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It's the difference between spot rent (new renter coming in) and leased renter (annual increase in rent). The latter will come at a lag which is why Shelter will stay high longer than anything else as it catches up to spot rent.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Two months down in core inflation. But still in watching the data mode before any conclusions are drawn.

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The Fed is clearly in wait and see mode and data dependent as they move Fed Funds up to a "neutral" rate, which Powell states is too low.

Remember, nominal income growth was 12% last year and it will most likely be double-digits again this year.

Bond fund managers like Jeffrey Gundlach will tell you that their "models" are forecasting that CPI will remain above 8% for several more months. It's most likely not coming down anytime soon. Probably gonna be a 6% YoY.

The FED knows that they've had a credibility problem.
Their forecasts have been worthless. And they dont want to mess up 40 years of inflation fighting.
They were at 1.9% when the market was at 3.4%
That gap has finally narrowed.
3.8% vs 4.0% for next year.

The market wants to see that they are on top of this (for a change).
And it is "welcoming" the 75 basis point hike, which by the way wasnt really leaked at all like previous hikes.
Remember, Powell had said that 75 was off the table at the last meeting.... which (again) undermines his credibility.

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I don't think they are behaving data dependent. I think they are behaving headline dependent.

dajo9 said:

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I don't think they are behaving data dependent. I think they are behaving headline dependent.

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Like I said, one month does not a trend make.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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I don't think they are behaving data dependent. I think they are behaving headline dependent.

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Like I said, one month does not a trend make.

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You said one month about something that was two months so . . .

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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I don't think they are behaving data dependent. I think they are behaving headline dependent.

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Like I said, one month does not a trend make.

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You said one month about something that was two months so . . .

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The majority of your posts are politically motivated, so I will take that under consideration.
We all know why youre afraid of the FED pushing the economy into a Recession just before Midterms.

Yes, consumer sentiment is at an all-time low and GDPNow out of the Atlanta Fed is at 0.0 for Q2.
The USD fell today and so did the 2 year yield.

Will the Powell and the FED screw this up?
Of course they will.

They've never ever conducted raising rates and QT simultaneuosly.

The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has already been signaling "liquidity" issues when in the past (two decades), would have caused the FED TO EASE at this point.

Not tighten.

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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I don't think they are behaving data dependent. I think they are behaving headline dependent.

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Like I said, one month does not a trend make.

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You said one month about something that was two months so . . .

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The majority of your posts are politically motivated, so I will take that under consideration.
We all know why youre afraid of the FED pushing the economy into a Recession just before Midterms.
Yes, consumer sentiment is at an all-time low and GDPNow out of the Atlanta Fed is at 0.0 for Q2.
The USD fell today and so did the 2 year yield.

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation. I am data dependent. That's why I know core inflation has been down two months.

dajo9 said:

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation. I am data dependent. That's why I know core inflation has been down two months.

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But will it come down enough or stay elevated?
That's the $64,000 question.

DiabloWags said:

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Will the Powell and the FED screw this up?
Of course they will.

They've never ever conducted raising rates and QT simultaneuosly.

The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has already been signaling "liquidity" issues when in the past (two decades), would have caused the FED TO EASE at this point.

Not tighten.

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Dajo said:

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation.

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So is INFLATION.

It crushes the poor and middle class many of whom are renters and dont have the luxury of working from home and bear the brunt of high fuel prices.

So weird that all of those articles posted here on Robert Reich, never really showed any concern for inflafionary pressures.

DiabloWags said:

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Dajo said:

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation.

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So is INFLATION.

It crushes the poor and middle class many of whom are renters and dont have the luxury of working from home and bear the brunt of high fuel prices.

So weird that all of those articles posted here on Robert Reich, never really showed any concern for inflafionary pressures.

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Wage driven inflation like we've had, at least prior to Putins War, is far better for people than recession. The negativity is overhyped by the media. I've shown that via multiple posts on these boards. It's in the data.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Dajo said:

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation.

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So is INFLATION.

It crushes the poor and middle class many of whom are renters and dont have the luxury of working from home and bear the brunt of high fuel prices.

So weird that all of those articles posted here on Robert Reich, never really showed any concern for inflafionary pressures.

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Wage driven inflation like we've had, at least prior to Putins War, is far better for people than recession. The negativity is overhyped by the media. I've shown that via multiple posts on these boards. It's in the data.

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This is a somewhat academic discussion, yes? With this rate hikes isn't clear that the sole (or at least primary) focus at this point is on containing inflation. The chances that the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking cycle causes adverse growth outcomes is rising, if not a certainty. Has not the open market committee said aggressive rate hikes will continue until there is clear evidence that slowing inflation is sustainable? That will happen when, well, when we are in a recession.

Equity markets were higher today, but are generally pricing in a good deal of recession already since profit reports have been good. There have only been three larger equity declines in the last 30 years: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Financial Crisis and the collapse of the Tech Bubble. This is not my expertise, but isn't the risk and return in the asset classes looking more attractive than in equity markets? You and Diablo do this for a living, you guys tell me. Europe will likely be challenged by energy supply shocks and a cost-of-living crisis. The Euro is dropping faster than a Steph Curry 3 pointer. Do we have to wait for the important people in Davos to meet and tell us at some symposium we are officially gong into stagflation? It seems obvious that is on the horizon.

wifeisafurd said:

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dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Dajo said:

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Recessions are bad for people. That's my motivation.

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So is INFLATION.

It crushes the poor and middle class many of whom are renters and dont have the luxury of working from home and bear the brunt of high fuel prices.

So weird that all of those articles posted here on Robert Reich, never really showed any concern for inflafionary pressures.

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Wage driven inflation like we've had, at least prior to Putins War, is far better for people than recession. The negativity is overhyped by the media. I've shown that via multiple posts on these boards. It's in the data.

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This is a somewhat academic discussion, yes? With this rate hikes isn't clear that the sole (or at least primary) focus at this point is on containing inflation. The chances that the Fed's aggressive rate-hiking cycle causes adverse growth outcomes is rising, if not a certainty. Has not the open market committee said aggressive rate hikes will continue until there is clear evidence that slowing inflation is sustainable? That will happen when, well, when we are in a recession.

Equity markets were higher today, but are generally pricing in a good deal of recession already since profit reports have been good. There have only been three larger equity declines in the last 30 years: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Financial Crisis and the collapse of the Tech Bubble. This is not my expertise, but isn't the risk and return in the asset classes looking more attractive than in equity markets? You and Diablo do this for a living, you guys tell me. Europe will likely be challenged by energy supply shocks and a cost-of-living crisis. The Euro is dropping faster than a Steph Curry 3 pointer. Do we have to wait for the important people in Davos to meet and tell us at some symposium we are officially gong into stagflation? It seems obvious that is on the horizon.

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I don't work in capital markets for a living.

What do you mean by "asset classes"?

A great way to lower real estate prices without destroying the economy would be to raise taxes on the rich.

Mindblowing

National Association of Realtors reports that 43% of homes sold in Dallas County, Texas in 2021 were purchased by institutional investors

(h/t @GRomePow )https://t.co/ax1rrcPEpR

— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) June 9, 2022

dajo9 said:

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A great way to lower real estate prices without destroying the economy would be to raise taxes on the rich.

Mindblowing

National Association of Realtors reports that 43% of homes sold in Dallas County, Texas in 2021 were purchased by institutional investors

(h/t @GRomePow )https://t.co/ax1rrcPEpR

— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) June 9, 2022

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This explains why there are so many cash buyers and why supply is so low. I know Zillow got in trouble for buying and flipping houses.

dajo9 said:

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A great way to lower real estate prices without destroying the economy would be to raise taxes on the rich.

Mindblowing

National Association of Realtors reports that 43% of homes sold in Dallas County, Texas in 2021 were purchased by institutional investors

(h/t @GRomePow )https://t.co/ax1rrcPEpR

— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) June 9, 2022

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I agree with you, generally, but I think it's much more productive to stop talking about "the rich" in vague terms, and talk about corporations vs individuals.

Over the last few decades, the contribution of the Corporate Earnings Tax to Federal tax revenue has gone from over 35% to single digits. Specifically, corporations that hire lobbyists have successfully transferred their tax burden to U.S. individuals.

But because we have a progressive tax code for the Individual Income Tax, high-income individuals actually bear a disproportionate share of our overall tax burden.

That said, I think the best way to lower real estate prices is to add a substantial surcharge on property taxes for residential properties that go unoccupied for extended periods of time. The unoccupied properties are getting to be a pretty high percentage of the housing stock.

The surcharge would generate enough revenue so that we could do what we should've done decades ago -- index the Property Tax Homeowner's Exemption to the CPI. In CA, when the $7000 homeowner's exemption was enacted, the average price of a home was in the $20,000 - $30,000 range, and it made a big difference in affordability. Today, the exemption should be $100,000 or more.