Kamala Harris for President

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bearister
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7:17p, 10/17/24
The stock market still leans to this candidate winning the presidential election - MarketWatch


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-presidential-candidate-is-still-the-stock-markets-bet-to-win-the-election-4e0a1b76
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bear2034
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11:29p, 10/17/24

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
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Big C
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:45p, 10/17/24
Cal88 said:
Big C said:

Yeah, like Congressmen, Governors and VP candidates don't get vetted, Thank you, Hindustan Times, for your responsible journalism... and for making some lawyer even richer when they sue you.

Dennis Hastert has entered the chat.

Touche' sort of.

Dennis Hastert was a great bar bet when he was SOTHOR: "If the President and Vice President were to die today, name the person who would become President."

Later, the stories came out.

Not Walz though... right?
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82gradDLSdad
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In reply to bear2034 • 5:19a, 10/18/24
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
Never knew about this dinner. I give Schumer a lot of credit for sitting there and not showing too much displeasure with Trump. Again, not knowing anything about this dinner it seems like Kamala should have gone. She could have had some fun at Trump's expense. Seems like good PR at the very least.
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In reply to 82gradDLSdad • 8:51a, 10/18/24
82gradDLSdad said:
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
Never knew about this dinner. I give Schumer a lot of credit for sitting there and not showing too much displeasure with Trump. Again, not knowing anything about this dinner it seems like Kamala should have gone. She could have had some fun at Trump's expense. Seems like good PR at the very least.
Vice President Harris has shown she has zero interest in doing things the old way. She is carving a new path for Presidential campaigns and with how great a job she is doing, future campaigns will emulate her path. Kamala Harris is the next generation of leadership that is way past due.
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dimitrig
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:09a, 10/18/24
dajo9 said:
82gradDLSdad said:
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
Never knew about this dinner. I give Schumer a lot of credit for sitting there and not showing too much displeasure with Trump. Again, not knowing anything about this dinner it seems like Kamala should have gone. She could have had some fun at Trump's expense. Seems like good PR at the very least.
Vice President Harris has shown she has zero interest in doing things the old way. She is carving a new path for Presidential campaigns and with how great a job she is doing, future campaigns will emulate her path. Kamala Harris is the next generation of leadership that is way past due.


There's a 50% chance her career will be over in about a month.
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In reply to bear2034 • 9:14a, 10/18/24
bear2034 said:
AunBear89 said:
President Trump lies. More and more, of late. It is safe to assume that everything he says happened behind closed doors is likely made up.

I suppose he's lying about Kamala here, then?
he said something about messing up the border with inflation? What????

VOTE BLUE
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In reply to bear2034 • 9:15a, 10/18/24
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
That dinner was basically the DC swamp. Best to avoid and keep campaigning
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In reply to AunBear89 • 9:18a, 10/18/24
AunBear89 said:
That tells us everything we need to know about the sad little boy that you are.

And you only like fascist and pretend billionaires?



Admit it: you want to be the meat in this goose stepping sandwich.
Muffin Top!
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82gradDLSdad
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:23a, 10/18/24
dajo9 said:
82gradDLSdad said:
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
Never knew about this dinner. I give Schumer a lot of credit for sitting there and not showing too much displeasure with Trump. Again, not knowing anything about this dinner it seems like Kamala should have gone. She could have had some fun at Trump's expense. Seems like good PR at the very least.
Vice President Harris has shown she has zero interest in doing things the old way. She is carving a new path for Presidential campaigns and with how great a job she is doing, future campaigns will emulate her path. Kamala Harris is the next generation of leadership that is way past due.
I'm sure Nancy will try to get her likeness on Mt. Rushmore right alongside Biden's.
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tequila4kapp
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11:11a, 10/18/24
Harris is running a bad campaign.

Staying in the basement and attacking Trump worked for Biden because he had a foundation of competency to work off. Everyone could believe the basic premise that Biden would return us to normal. Harris has to do more.

Based on what I have seen in my home town and when I have visited other regions of the country the Harris campaign boils down to:
1. Abortion
2. Trump is evil

If you are a D those two themes are perfectly fine because they serve to get the vote out with your core constituency (women / D's). But you can't not try with other demographics. You have to give independents, men and minorities a tangible reason to vote for you. There is still time, but the clock is ticking.
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dajo9
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 11:29a, 10/18/24
tequila4kapp said:
Harris is running a bad campaign.

Staying in the basement and attacking Trump worked for Biden because he had a foundation of competency to work off. Everyone could believe the basic premise that Biden would return us to normal. Harris has to do more.

Based on what I have seen in my home town and when I have visited other regions of the country the Harris campaign boils down to:
1. Abortion
2. Trump is evil

If you are a D those two themes are perfectly fine because they serve to get the vote out with your core constituency (women / D's). But you can't not try with other demographics. You have to give independents, men and minorities a tangible reason to vote for you. There is still time, but the clock is ticking.


You are in a bubble
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bearister
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 11:46a, 10/18/24
"Staying in the basement and attacking Trump…."

What?

tRump refuses 2nd debate

tRump cancels 60 Minutes Interview

tRump cancels NRA event

tRump cancels NBC News interview

tRump cancels appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box.

Trump cancels a streak of events with only days until election


https://www.axios.com/2024/10/18/trump-cancels-interviews-2024
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to bearister • 11:53a, 10/18/24
The themes...I was mostly thinking about her TV ads.

Staying in the basement...until recently she avoided interviews, only did highly scripted safe events. That has transitioned - see Fox interview.

Notice your default response is fundamentally to go to "What Trump has done?" You appear to be part of the natural audience for the Trump Is Evil portion of her campaign.

If recent reports are accurate the election is still incredibly tight but trending away from her. Thus, I was commenting on her campaign, not Trump.
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sycasey
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12:01p, 10/18/24
This "bad campaign" judgment seems to be heavily tied to relatively recent polling shifts that are pretty minor in the grand scheme. The Harris campaign had to get ramped up very quickly, was starting at a deficit given where the Biden campaign had left them, and has essentially brought the race to a tie ballgame with a few weeks to go. On the whole, it's been successful.

Will they close the deal? I don't know . . . it's super close. But I don't think it will be for lack of trying. She's doing exactly the kind of interview/media blitz everyone had been wanting to see.
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dajo9
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12:14p, 10/18/24
Vice President Harris has come from behind to have a small lead nationally and in the battlegrounds. In general, good polls have NOT moved against her recently. The early voting data is also good news for Madame October.

Just as was done in 2022, the right is flooding the zone with garbage polls. They've added things like polymarket which is a scam. Still, either could win but if you believed there was a red wave coming in 2022 then you should really be making an effort to be more discerning this year.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to sycasey • 12:30p, 10/18/24
sycasey said:
This "bad campaign" judgment seems to be heavily tied to relatively recent polling shifts that are pretty minor in the grand scheme. The Harris campaign had to get ramped up very quickly, was starting at a deficit given where the Biden campaign had left them, and has essentially brought the race to a tie ballgame with a few weeks to go. On the whole, it's been successful.

Will they close the deal? I don't know . . . it's super close. But I don't think it will be for lack of trying. She's doing exactly the kind of interview/media blitz everyone had been wanting to see.
I am highly skeptical of all polling, especially in the Trump era. Most experts / commentators / pollsters agree it is incredibly tight in the 7 swing states that will determine the election but they have all trended in Trump's favor. 3 weeks out the trend potentially matters more than the raw number, although in a close election getting the vote out always matters most, and D's have dominated that game the past few cycles.
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movielover
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In reply to dajo9 • 12:44p, 10/18/24
dajo9 said:
82gradDLSdad said:
bear2034 said:

Why did Kamala skip out on the Al Smith dinner?
Never knew about this dinner. I give Schumer a lot of credit for sitting there and not showing too much displeasure with Trump. Again, not knowing anything about this dinner it seems like Kamala should have gone. She could have had some fun at Trump's expense. Seems like good PR at the very least.
Vice President Harris has shown she has zero interest in doing things the old way. She is carving a new path for Presidential campaigns and with how great a job she is doing, future campaigns will emulate her path. Kamala Harris is the next generation of leadership that is way past due.


ROTFLMFAO
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movielover
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 12:53p, 10/18/24
tequila4kapp said:
sycasey said:
This "bad campaign" judgment seems to be heavily tied to relatively recent polling shifts that are pretty minor in the grand scheme. The Harris campaign had to get ramped up very quickly, was starting at a deficit given where the Biden campaign had left them, and has essentially brought the race to a tie ballgame with a few weeks to go. On the whole, it's been successful.

Will they close the deal? I don't know . . . it's super close. But I don't think it will be for lack of trying. She's doing exactly the kind of interview/media blitz everyone had been wanting to see.
I am highly skeptical of all polling, especially in the Trump era. Most experts / commentators / pollsters agree it is incredibly tight in the 7 swing states that will determine the election but they have all trended in Trump's favor. 3 weeks out the trend potentially matters more than the raw number, although in a close election getting the vote out always matters most, and D's have dominated that game the past few cycles.


But the rigging is still rampant.
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sycasey
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 1:04p, 10/18/24
tequila4kapp said:
sycasey said:
This "bad campaign" judgment seems to be heavily tied to relatively recent polling shifts that are pretty minor in the grand scheme. The Harris campaign had to get ramped up very quickly, was starting at a deficit given where the Biden campaign had left them, and has essentially brought the race to a tie ballgame with a few weeks to go. On the whole, it's been successful.

Will they close the deal? I don't know . . . it's super close. But I don't think it will be for lack of trying. She's doing exactly the kind of interview/media blitz everyone had been wanting to see.
I am highly skeptical of all polling, especially in the Trump era. Most experts / commentators / pollsters agree it is incredibly tight in the 7 swing states that will determine the election but they have all trended in Trump's favor. 3 weeks out the trend potentially matters more than the raw number, although in a close election getting the vote out always matters most, and D's have dominated that game the past few cycles.

Dems definitely did not dominate GOTV efforts in 2020, because most of the people who would have done it were staying home from COVID. That may also have been part of why Trump overperformed the polls that year. But otherwise, yes, Dems have been better at this since 2016. Seems the same this year, but we don't really know until the election happens.
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 1:12p, 10/18/24
tequila4kapp said:
sycasey said:
This "bad campaign" judgment seems to be heavily tied to relatively recent polling shifts that are pretty minor in the grand scheme. The Harris campaign had to get ramped up very quickly, was starting at a deficit given where the Biden campaign had left them, and has essentially brought the race to a tie ballgame with a few weeks to go. On the whole, it's been successful.

Will they close the deal? I don't know . . . it's super close. But I don't think it will be for lack of trying. She's doing exactly the kind of interview/media blitz everyone had been wanting to see.
I am highly skeptical of all polling, especially in the Trump era. Most experts / commentators / pollsters agree it is incredibly tight in the 7 swing states that will determine the election but they have all trended in Trump's favor. 3 weeks out the trend potentially matters more than the raw number, although in a close election getting the vote out always matters most, and D's have dominated that game the past few cycles.


Most pollsters / commentators / experts told us a red wave was coming in 2022. Dig deeper.
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Zippergate
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In reply to movielover • 1:41p, 10/18/24
A definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting a different result.
Harris is a stone cold lock.

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bearister
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In reply to Zippergate • 1:52p, 10/18/24
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
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Zippergate
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In reply to bearister • 2:01p, 10/18/24
bearister said:
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
Projecting yet again. Evidence much? lol
Where are the Republican mules? Where are the Republican closed-door ballot counts? Where the Republican AGs stonewalling recount efforts? Where are the trucks loaded with out-of-state ballots? Where are the affidavits from poll workers saying they witnessed? etc etc

See, you only get to play the it's-okay-that-we-cheat-because-you-cheat-too card if the other side is actually cheating.
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smh
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In reply to bearister • 2:01p, 10/18/24
bearister said:
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
hell no
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to bearister • 2:08p, 10/18/24
bearister said:
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
What the hell, I'll make my prediction now:

PRESIDENT:
Harris wins. The polls are unreliable again; independents/AA/Hispanics/Arabs don't deliver for Trump once it is time to actually vote.

SENATE:
R's take back control (duh) and the margin is a touch bigger than expected. Montana and WV get them to 51. EDIT: As many as 3-4 other surprises happen (watch PA, OH, WI, MI)

HOUSE:
No idea.
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sycasey
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 2:22p, 10/18/24
tequila4kapp said:
bearister said:
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
What the hell, I'll make my prediction now:

PRESIDENT:
Harris wins. The polls are unreliable again; independents/AA/Hispanics/Arabs don't deliver for Trump once it is time to actually vote.

SENATE:
R's take back control (duh) and the margin is a touch bigger than expected. Montana and WV get them to 51. As many as 3 other surprises happen (watch PA, WI, MI)

HOUSE:
No idea.

Re: the Senate. Ohio would probably fall before those other rust belt states.
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dajo9
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2:23p, 10/18/24
Here is an easy example of the con going on in polling. It became a thing in 2022 but in 2024 it has become bigger and more brazen.

TIPP did a poll of Pennsylvania funded by American Greatness. The RV poll gave Vice President Harris a 4 point lead but the LV screen gave Dementia Donold a 1 point lead. That screen is in the PA averages at RCP and 538. How did they do it? They reduced the Philadelphia component from 124 RV to 12 LV. It's not analysis, it is a con.

American Greatness is a pro Trump group

https://www.newsweek.com/pennsylvania-poll-tipp-trump-harris-likely-voters-philadelphia-1967590
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movielover
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 2:27p, 10/18/24
Rasmussen Reports has Trump +2. They accurately predicted 2016.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2024/election2024
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bearister
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In reply to Zippergate • 2:39p, 10/18/24
Zippergate said:
bearister said:
Let's put this in simple terms: When Musk, Putin and Bibi all want the same POTUS, they are going to get their wish….one way or the other.
Projecting yet again. Evidence much? lol
Where are the Republican mules? Where are the Republican closed-door ballot counts? Where the Republican AGs stonewalling recount efforts? Where are the trucks loaded with out-of-state ballots? Where are the affidavits from poll workers saying they witnessed? etc etc

See, you only get to play the it's-okay-that-we-cheat-because-you-cheat-too card if the other side is actually cheating.


I hope Harris wins. I hope Republicans file lawsuits claiming election fraud and that juries rule against them and then Republicans are cornered into clamming the jury system is corrupt.

If Harris wins you will discover in the lawsuits claiming election fraud that the allegations of fraud are not based on evidence but on the same unsubstantiated "a lot of people have been saying" garbage that MAGAS always base their claims on, whether it be in a court filing or a Republican Senate or Congressional Investigation.

You people will not be satisfied until tRump has military tribunals ratifying all the bullsh@it MAGAS believe in. He already has his Rubber Stamp SCOTUS.

Everything you post is from sketchy sources. You are carrying tRump's water and it is very clear that tRump is not confident he can rigg the election so he is laying pipe for Plan B.
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bearister
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 5:52p, 10/18/24
" Notice your default response is fundamentally to go to "What Trump has done?"

In a two person race isn't it always relevant to compare and contrast what the competitors are doing?

MAGAs are forced to perpetually raise the shield of "Whataboutism" because their candidate is a moral bankrupt, a traitor, a convicted felon x 34, an adjudicated tax fraud and sexual abuser, and a seditionist (this is still a partial list). He ain't going to fare well compared to 99% of mankind….and that percentage is still probably understated.

*For instance, it is actually laughable that the tRumpers got all fired up and indignant that Harris gave non responsive answers and evaded during the Fox interview (which is true) in light of the fact tRump's default is to respond with a demonstrable lie with a fall back of evading and redirecting to his talking points (which is why he can't ever take a witness stand, be sworn and subject to cross examination).

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tequila4kapp
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In reply to bearister • 5:57p, 10/18/24
I believe it should be possible to discuss one thing without the other. She's a big girl who wants to sit in the big chair. We can assess her on her own merits.
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bearister
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 6:18p, 10/18/24
That's fine, but as you are going through your performance review and you give her low grades on your long list of evaluation points, what is the action to be taken at the end? Vote for tRump?

If David Duke was running against tRump, I would not vote, but I don't think the Reasonable Man thinks we have that situation on our hands in 2024.

There is a reason that, for the first time in history, this many dyed in the wool, life long Republicans are publicly supporting the Democratic candidate.

There is a reason, that for the 1st time in history, this many people in a POTUS' orbit made these kinds of statements:

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Trump had the understanding of "a fifth- or sixth-grader."

-White House chief of staff John Kelly called Trump "an idiot."

-Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon said in November 2017 that Trump was "like an 11-year-old child."

-Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in July 2017 called Trump a "moron."

-McMaster also said Trump was a "dope" with the intelligence of a "kindergartner."

-Both Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former Chief of Staff Reince Priebus called Trump an "idiot."

-Former economic adviser Gary Cohn said Trump was "dumb as sh@it." An e-mail "purporting to represent the views of Gary Cohn" circulated the White House that read, in part:
"It's worse than you can imagine. An idiot surrounded by clowns. Trump won't read anything not one-page memos, not the brief policy papers; nothing. He gets up halfway through meetings with world leaders because he is bored. And his staff is no better. Kushner is an entitled baby who knows nothing. Bannon is an arrogant pr@ick who thinks he's smarter than he is. Trump is less a person than a collection of terrible traits . . . I am in a constant state of terror and shock."

Working with Trump is "like trying to figure out what a child wants" White House deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh

The White House has become an adult day care center"Republican senator Bob Corker of Tennessee

Tom Barrack Jr., a fellow billionaire and one of Trump's closest associates, reportedly told a friend that Trump was "not only crazy,he's stupid."

*…and the real horrifying part of this is that tRump's mental decline since those statements were made has been significant.
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movielover
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In reply to bearister • 6:48p, 10/18/24
Trump wars: 0
Trump peace deals: 5
Inflation: low
Border: closed
Mental acquity: strong, opinionated

Biden-Harris wars: 2
Biden-Harris peace deals: 0
Inflation: historic records
Border: wide open
Mental acquity: dementia, cackling
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dajo9
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In reply to movielover • 7:47p, 10/18/24
movielover said:
Trump wars: 0
Trump peace deals: 5
Inflation: low
Border: closed
Mental acquity: strong, opinionated

Biden-Harris wars: 2
Biden-Harris peace deals: 0
Inflation: historic records
Border: wide open
Mental acquity: dementia, cackling


Trump job losses: historically high
Biden: first year with zero combat deaths this century
Mental acquity: Trump dementia causing him to cancel campaign events
Border: ebbing and flowing with job demand like it always has
Trump peace deals: so laughably weak that war has already broken out

Happy Roevember
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