March PPI fell 0.4% in March from the month before and slowed to 2.7% annualized.

Economists had expected a rise by 0.2%

But this is all water under the bridge and in the rear view mirror.
The Inflation Rate is about to increase by another 2.5% and $4,400 per household with the tariffs.


Another inflation report underlines the strength of the US economy before Trump's tariff chaos | CNN Business

This is what happens when you DESTROY $12 TRILLION of WEALTH in the U.S. Stock Market

Maga for Morons!

US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952 | CNN Business





Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in April as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% from 4.9% the month prior. This marked the highest one-year inflation expectations since 1981. Just three months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Because of this, the Fed will not be cutting rates anytime soon.

Jerome Powell wants to be more like Paul Volker than Arthur Burns right now.

This is a case where inflation is not caused by monetary policy, but by trade policy, so keeping interest rates high would be counterproductive here.

It ALL comes down to the yield on the 10-Year

Traded as high as 4.59 today

The real crash doesn’t happen when every two bit influencer, CNBC talking head, chart monkey, and kid analyst is calling for it. It happens when almost nobody is talking about it. Learn the game.

— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) April 12, 2025

Our Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lead bond market participants to believe that rates would be coming down on the long end of the curve. They loaded up on bonds. But the exact opposite has happened and they wound up sustaining large losses.

Bessent has lost some credibility with bond market participants.




Bessent Says Treasury Has Big Toolkit If Needed for Bonds - Bloomberg

Latest Q1 GDP estimate by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow:

-2.2%

Retail trade and industrial production came out this morning.
The previous datapoint was April 15th at -2.6%

Slide 1

Retail sales surged in March as American's loaded up on goods to beat Trump's tariffs.
+1.4% in March from the prior month.

A big move in auto purchases was the driver.
Excluding autos, retail sales were up a more modest 0.5%

Retail sales surged in March as Americans rushed to beat Trump's tariffs | CNN Business

For every 1% increase in unemployment, there is a loss of 2% GDP.

For every 1% increase in unemployment, there are 1.62 million jobs lost, based on 162 million workers in the U.S.

The unemployment rate was 4.0% when Trump took office.
Bookmark that data-point for future use.

Biden GDP

2021: 5.5%
2022: 2.5
2023: 2.9
2024: 2.8

The Economic Record of Biden and Trump Compared to That of Presidents Since Truman | An Economic Sense

WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed

This is unlike anything we’ve seen in a decade

A thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/2hu0ssYEmD

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 21, 2025

Trump's Flip Flop is the latest example of how Mr. Powell is having an undeservedly good trade war.



https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powells-oh-so-lucky-trade-war-federal-reserve-tariffs-trump-1057ff53?st=Afu1EE&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

By Joseph C. Sternberg
WSJ, Opinion Section, Political Economics
April 24, 2025

Sales of existing homes in March had their biggest monthly decline in more than 2 years.

- 5.9%

The slowest sales pace for any March since 2009.

MAGA!!!

Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

Doesnt see tariffs impacting economic data until after July and the second half. Thus, FED will be in "wait and see" mode.

Waller is one of 12 Fed Governors.
Trump cant fire them either.

Consumer Sentiment Falling off a Cliff.

"Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32 percent since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession," Michigan economists said in a Friday release.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/25/trump-tariffs-trade-war-consumer-sentiment

https://www.pymnts.com/consumer-insights/2025/households-expect-inflation-to-soar-to-6-5percent-as-they-sour-on-the-economy/

FYI:

The new GDPNow by the Atlanta Fed will commence April 30th using a new methodology that makes adjustments for the import of Gold, which surged in spectacular fashion in January.

The last use of GDPNow using the old methodology will be tomorrow.

The Switch: The Changing Conditions Behind the New GDPNow Model - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

How Gold Imports Blew up Atlanta Fed GDPNow: The Old Model is Dead, Long Live the "New GDPNow Model" Starting Apr 30 | Wolf Street

Trump trade wars could turn GDP negative in the first quarter. Here's why.

The GDP report will be released Wednesday morning. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a tepid 0.4% growth rate in the first quarter, but that was before they knew about the record U.S. trade deficit in March.

Higher trade deficits subtract from GDP.

After the trade report, economists further reduced their GDP forecasts. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast, for instance, dropped its estimate from minus 0.4% to minus 1.5%.

Morgan Stanley, for its part, slashed its forecast from 0.0% to minus 1.4%.

Comerica is also at - 1.4%

Goldman is at - 0.2%

BofA is at +0.4%


The FactSet consensus is at +0.8% growth

Taking more shots at Jerome Powell, at a 100 Day Trump rally in Michigan...

"Interest rates came down despite the fact that I have a Fed person who's not really doing a good job but I won't say that, I want to be very nice. I want to be very nice and respectful to the Fed. You're not supposed to criticize the Fed, you're supposed to let him do his own thing. But I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me," Trump said.

He had called Powell a "major loser" last week and suggested the Fed's previous rate cuts were aimed at helping Biden. The president has been pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5274073-trump-michigan-rally-100-days/

Consumer Confidence at a 5-year low.
April came in at 86.0%

87.5% had been expected per Reuters.
92.9% was the reading in March.

5 consecutive monthly declines.
Expectations Index at the lowest since October 2011.

Q1 GDP announced tomorrow.

MAGA!!!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/consumer-confidence-plunged-5-year-low-april

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/consumer-outlook-hits-lowest-since-2011-as-tariff-fears-mount-conference-board-survey-shows.html

THIS GUY IS A CLOWN.

LMFAO!

Trump blames Biden for negative GDP.
As expected.

Is Wags a paid CCP agent?

chazzed said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

THIS GUY IS A CLOWN.

LMFAO!

---

"If we ignore our nonsensical, disastrous move, we are quite pleased."

Sad.

---

Never trust a guy who speaks with his eyes closed like he's squeezing out a turd..
That's Navarro.

🚨NEW: Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, speaks at The White House about their $500B AI investment in the US pic.twitter.com/ezb7OUUtRH

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) April 30, 2025

More winning!

BREAKING 🚨 Donald Trump welcomes business Leaders to the White House announcing $8 Trillion in total investment possibly in next couple months

“Last Administration over 4 years did less than 1”

THIS IS EARTH SHATTERING 🔥

pic.twitter.com/RQkMUaMHDM

— MAGA Voice (@MAGAVoice) April 30, 2025

Up to $8 trillion dollar investment in the U.S. Bullish.