The Economy

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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 9:47a, 7/19/25
movielover said:
I note three salient facts, you go into personal attack mode. Typical.


You offered zero data to support your "claims".

Some people like our "mascot" are gullible enough to believe anecdotal "claims" as facts.

I repeat for the kids sitting waaaaay in the back OAKLAND IS THE 9TH BUSIEST PORT IN THE U.S.

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DiabloWags
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In reply to oski003 • 9:51a, 7/19/25
oski003 said:
movielover said:
POO has done itself no favors, the city previously allegedly brought in a Port leader to shepard the As ballpark... not to run a port. Not helpful to ship captains before and after Covid. Container space way more valuable Asia --> USA, versus the opposite direction. After visiting POLA / LB, they often skip Oakland, just go home.


Thank you for the knowledgeable, thoughtful post.


Yes, so thoughtful it doesnt contain a single data point.
So very knowledgeable.
lol

74% of traffic was with Asia.
17% Europe.

Facts & Figures - Oakland Seaport

https://share.google/333zEYWafwTBF2K5V
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movielover
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In reply to oski003 • 9:57a, 7/19/25
oski003 said:
movielover said:
POO has done itself no favors, the city previously allegedly brought in a Port leader to shepard the As ballpark... not to run a port. Not helpful to ship captains before and after Covid. Container space way more valuable Asia --> USA, versus the opposite direction. After visiting POLA / LB, they often skip Oakland, just go home.


Thank you for the knowledgeable, thoughtful post.


It's too bad we can't increase the use of the Stockton port to help that depressed city. The super tankers likely play a big role. Stockton could theoretically service the whole Central Valley.
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oski003
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In reply to movielover • 12:15p, 7/19/25
movielover said:
oski003 said:
movielover said:
POO has done itself no favors, the city previously allegedly brought in a Port leader to shepard the As ballpark... not to run a port. Not helpful to ship captains before and after Covid. Container space way more valuable Asia --> USA, versus the opposite direction. After visiting POLA / LB, they often skip Oakland, just go home.


Thank you for the knowledgeable, thoughtful post.


It's too bad we can't increase the use of the Stockton port to help that depressed city. The super tankers likely play a big role. Stockton could theoretically service the whole Central Valley.


Again, thank you for the knowledgeable, thoughtful post. I appreciate real dialog instead of biased puffery.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to movielover • 1:40p, 7/19/25
movielover said:
It's too bad we can't increase the use of the Stockton port to help that depressed city. The super tankers likely play a big role. Stockton could theoretically service the whole Central Valley.


Ummm... the narrow channel size of the SAN JOAQUIN RIVER limits the size of vessels above New York Point to the PANAMAX class, not to mention daylight limitations, shallow stretches that can only be negotiated at high tide, fox, the need for maintenance dredging to keep the ship channel at 33 feet, and hyacinth infestation that prevents ships from docking at night, turnaround activity and overall productivity.

You're welcome!

PORT OF STOCKTON: SAN JOAQUIN RIVER NAVIGATIONAL CHALLENGES - RBTUS

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DiabloWags
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12:24p, 7/22/25
Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.3% in JUNE to 98.8

The LEI has already fallen by 2.8% over the first half of this year, a faster rate than the 1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024, the Conference Board said.

This is how you MAGA!
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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 2:05p, 7/22/25
DiabloWags said:
Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.3% in JUNE to 98.8

The LEI has already fallen by 2.8% over the first half of this year, a faster rate than the 1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024, the Conference Board said.

This is how you MAGA!


That's cool. Thanks for letting us know. SPX (S&P 500) hit a record high today.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to oski003 • 2:07p, 7/22/25
Because the market is looking for rate cuts when they perceive weakness in the economy.
Hence, the CME Fed-Watch tool now showing a 56% probability of a quarter point rate cut in September.

You're welcome for the tutorial.


CME FedWatch - CME Group


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PAC-10-BEAR
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3:15p, 7/22/25
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movielover
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In reply to bear2034 • 5:08p, 7/22/25
CNBC: Trump announces 'massive' trade deal with Japan with 15% tariffs

"Trump said that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States, adding that the U.S. will "receive 90% of the Profits."

"He also said Japan will "open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things." "

"...Japanese automobiles imported into the U.S. already attract a 25% tariff in line with the rest of the countries."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/23/trump-announces-massive-trade-deal-with-japan-with-15percent-tariffs.html
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dajo9
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5:33a, 7/23/25
Trump has announced a decrease in investment in the US from Japan. Down to $500+ billion from over $700+ billion that was happening under Biden
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DiabloWags
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7:27a, 7/23/25
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall


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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:30a, 7/23/25
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall




Does that mean you aren't buying OPEN stock today?

https://sherwood.news/markets/hedge-fund-manager-eric-jackson-opendoor-rally/
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:51a, 7/23/25
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

We are prospective home sellers. This data reflects our market - inventory is up, prices are down a touch, it is taking longer to sell. Agents routinely say interest rates are the problem.
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 9:58a, 7/23/25
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall




Real estate in some parts of magat country are in complete collapse
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 10:00a, 7/23/25
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall




Real estate in some parts of magat country are in complete collapse


Yes, I've read the same.
Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carlina, New Mexico, Texas.

12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:04a, 7/23/25
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall




Real estate in some parts of magat country are in complete collapse


Yes, I've read the same.
Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carlina, New Mexico, Texas.

12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026


That article didn't even list Florida which is currently ground zero for real estate collapse. Bad jobs, bad infrastructure, poor regulations, bad climate, expensive insurance.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:38a, 7/23/25
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:
DiabloWags said:
Existing Home Sales fall more than expected.
Decline 2.7% for JUNE.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140229436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Real estate in some parts of magat country are in complete collapse

Yes, I've read the same.
Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carlina, New Mexico, Texas.

12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026

That's a little misleading. It isn't the entire state, it is particular cities in those states. One of the states is of particular interest to me - we are not seeing this massive drop for the state we are interested in - so I opened the link. It lists particular cities, mostly little ones you've never heard of
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movielover
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11:24a, 7/23/25
DC prices down 1.5%.
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to DiabloWags • 6:43p, 7/24/25

The economists called it....Bidenflation.
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DiabloWags
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9:19a, 7/28/25
Meme stocks +90% YTD.
In anticipation of lower rates.


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DiabloWags
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9:23a, 7/28/25
Goldman's Financial Conditions Index is actually "easing" solely due to stocks.
Not rates. Not the dollar.





The most crowded trade ever.
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DiabloWags
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6:13p, 7/29/25
June core PCE 2.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) https://share.google/iKLYtLVFqcEoYDaWm
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DiabloWags
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11:33a, 7/30/25
Powell and the Fed Governors leave rates unchanged.
4.25 - 4.50%

Chump will NOT be happy!


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tequila4kapp
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:41a, 7/30/25
There were a couple of dissents. It's being reported that's the first time since the early 90s.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 11:50a, 7/30/25
tequila4kapp said:
There were a couple of dissents. It's being reported that's the first time since the early 90s.


Yes, and one has been critical of Powell so that he can become the NEXT Fed Governor.
Chris Waller.

Waller is arguing that today's 2.7% inflation as measured by core personal consumption expenditures is good enough to cut rates, even in an economy where unemployment is near 4%.

Waller says he's willing to lead Fed if Trump asks, but no contact so far | Reuters


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oski003
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 12:00p, 7/30/25
tequila4kapp said:
There were a couple of dissents. It's being reported that's the first time since the early 90s.


Market expected rates to stay the same. Market, however, does expect a rate cut in September. Perhaps the dissents are an effort to set the table for that.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 12:16p, 7/30/25
tequila4kapp said:
There were a couple of dissents. It's being reported that's the first time since the early 90s.


The dissents are reflective of the fact that this is a "complicated" period.
And given Powell's comments today, the odds of a September rate cut just decreased from 65% to 47%

CME FedWatch - CME Group


Here's a question:

If you were a Martian and you landed on Earth and saw that the S&P was making new All-Time highs, Meme stocks were +90% on the year, an asset like Bitcoin was trading at $116,000, the GDP was at 3% for Q2 and the Unemployment Rate was at 4.1% - - - Would you think that the Federal Reserve was "restrictive" with monetary policy?
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DiabloWags
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12:43p, 7/30/25
Interesting note by GS today noting that their work shows that the current effective rate for tariffs is 7.4% and its on its way to 14% by year end and 17% by 2027.

This would indicate that we are only in the 4th inning of this game and the price impacts haven't really hit the economy yet.

Free Link to Edward Harrison at Bloomberg and his concern about STAGFLATION.

The 1960's all over again?

A great read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-30/fed-chair-powell-cannot-raise-rates-despite-pressure-from-trump?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc1MzkwNDM1NSwiZXhwIjoxNzU0NTA5MTU1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUMDg4MkxHUTdMMTIwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0QTE0NjgyRTVEQjI0RDgyOEVGOTIxMzA1M0U4NzhDMiJ9.xrqTitkLDn6d6LpSSU2MlwzybuonQ9s5YSksq0KRFtg
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 1:10p, 7/30/25
4th inning?
How about 2nd inning.
The Trump presidency is going to have like 14 more quarters of economic reporting coming.

Of course, as in baseball, the verdict on his tariffs policy is going to be Game Over long before that.

He's handing a big economic stimulus to his predecessor - reverse the deficiency day one, economic spending up.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 1:14p, 7/30/25
concordtom said:
4th inning?


I'm clearly talking about the EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE.

GS is saying that we are currently at 7.4% effective on the way to 14% by year end.
This has nothing to do with how many more quarters there are under Trump's term.
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tequila4kapp
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1:15p, 7/30/25
Or maybe the 5th inning of an 8 inning game??? (1st term counts too, doesn't it?)
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DiabloWags
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 1:16p, 7/30/25
tequila4kapp said:
Or maybe the 5th inning of an 8 inning game??? (1st term counts too, doesn't it?)


Why would it count?

I'm talking about the EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE.
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DiabloWags
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1:21p, 7/30/25
Lots of earnings announcements out after the close.

Meta and MSFT soaring 10% and 6% respectively.

Ford on the other hand has tariff issues and recall issues.

They reinstated full-year guidance but upped its full-year TARIFF exposure after seeing $800 million in tariff costs in Q2 alone.

Ford now sees a "net tariff related headwind for the year of about 2 Billion"

So much for the narrative that if you just "BUY AMERICAN" you don't have to worry about tariffs.

Ford CEO Jim Farley interviewed on CNBC right now.








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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 1:25p, 7/30/25
DiabloWags said:
concordtom said:
4th inning?


I'm clearly talking about the EFFECTIVE TARIFF RATE.

GS is saying that we are currently at 7.4% effective on the way to 14% by year end.
This has nothing to do with how many more quarters there are under Trump's term.


ah.
roger that point.
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